
The mighty Pacific bluefin tuna is in a world of trouble, caught up in a trans-Pacific political battle over who's to blame for driving the population to the brink of collapse and who’s responsible for bringing it back. The fish, loved by the Japanese for its deep red fatty meat and sought after by sport fishers from Baja California to New Zealand, has been decimated by decades of overfishing and an absence of responsible management. Today, the Pacific bluefin population had dropped to just four percent of its unfished size, with a steady decline over the last 15 years. And the most recent assessment shows even deeper signs of trouble.
Data collected by scientists with the International Scientific Committee for Tuna and Tuna-like Species in the North Pacific Ocean (ISC) show that more than 90 percent of a fisherman's bluefin tuna catch today is made up of the smallest fish: juveniles that haven't had a chance to reproduce. And that's not the worst of it. A recent scientific analysis found that the few adult bluefin remaining in the ocean are nearing the end of their lives, meaning they won't be reproducing much longer. With few new fish entering the population, and fishermen catching those juveniles almost exclusively, this species is at a tipping point.
Pacific bluefin is fished predominantly by Japan in the west and Mexico in the east. South Korea and Taiwan also fish for bluefin, with U.S. commercial and recreational fishers catching a small amount as well. Commercially caught bluefin regularly sell for tens of thousands of dollars each, sometimes much more.
Members should set a minimum size limit for all bluefin caught. Photo credit: Richard Herrmann
Not only do these Pacific players have an economic interest in a fully recovered population, but they also have an obligation to make it happen. Each is a member of the two regional fishery management bodies responsible for Pacific bluefin tuna—one in the east and one in the west—and this month the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission meets to decide on management measures in the east. Here’s how members can engineer Pacific bluefin’s comeback.
First, institute a catch limit. The ISC advice calls for the Commission to establish an annual quota of 2,750 metric tons, which includes all forms of catch from commercial to recreational to discards. Next, members should set a minimum size limit for all bluefin caught—important because another recent study shows that if a 20-kilogram size limit were in place, the population would see significant improvement in as little as three years.
Of course, adopting management measures will require monitoring and enforcement, including a catch documentation system, full observer coverage of bluefin transferred to off-shore fish farming ranches and later harvested, and authorized vessel lists.
The fishery commission in the east must also work with its counterpart in the west. Photo credit: Richard Herrmann
Because there is only one population of Pacific bluefin tuna, and it migrates thousands of miles across the ocean, the fishery commission in the east must also work with its counterpart in the west to develop and implement a comprehensive, basin-wide rebuilding plan to prevent a total collapse of the fishery.
The world has witnessed fish stocks crash before. But what makes this story different than the dramatic decline of Atlantic cod or even Atlantic bluefin tuna is the ability to change the trajectory of the Pacific bluefin population in a short period of time. In just a few years this recovery process could be a case study in how political leadership and commitment from industry can transform even the most depleted fishery. It’s time for Japan, Mexico and the U.S. to step up.
Amanda Nickson directs global tuna conservation for The Pew Charitable Trusts.
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A Game of Jenga
<p>Think of it as a game of Jenga and the planet's climate system as the tower. For generations, we have been slowly removing blocks. But at some point, we will remove a pivotal block, such as the collapse of one of the major global ocean circulation systems, for example the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), that will cause all or part of the global climate system to fall into a planetary emergency.</p><p>But worse still, it could cause runaway damage: Where the tipping points form a domino-like cascade, where breaching one triggers breaches of others, creating an unstoppable shift to a radically and swiftly changing climate.</p><p>One of the most concerning tipping points is mass methane release. Methane can be found in deep freeze storage within permafrost and at the bottom of the deepest oceans in the form of methane hydrates. But rising sea and air temperatures are beginning to thaw these stores of methane.</p><p>This would release a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, 30-times more potent than carbon dioxide as a global warming agent. This would drastically increase temperatures and rush us towards the breach of other tipping points.</p><p>This could include the acceleration of ice thaw on all three of the globe's large, land-based ice sheets – Greenland, West Antarctica and the Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica. The potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is seen as a key tipping point, as its loss could eventually <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5929/901" target="_blank">raise global sea levels by 3.3 meters</a> with important regional variations.</p><p>More than that, we would be on the irreversible path to full land-ice melt, causing sea levels to rise by up to 30 meters, roughly at the rate of two meters per century, or maybe faster. Just look at the raised beaches around the world, at the last high stand of global sea level, at the end of the Pleistocene period around 120,0000 years ago, to see the evidence of such a warm world, which was just 2°C warmer than the present day.</p>Cutting Off Circulation
<p>As well as devastating low-lying and coastal areas around the world, melting polar ice could set off another tipping point: a disablement to the AMOC.</p><p>This circulation system drives a northward flow of warm, salty water on the upper layers of the ocean from the tropics to the northeast Atlantic region, and a southward flow of cold water deep in the ocean.</p><p>The ocean conveyor belt has a major effect on the climate, seasonal cycles and temperature in western and northern Europe. It means the region is warmer than other areas of similar latitude.</p><p>But melting ice from the Greenland ice sheet could threaten the AMOC system. It would dilute the salty sea water in the north Atlantic, making the water lighter and less able or unable to sink. This would slow the engine that drives this ocean circulation.</p><p><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century" target="_blank">Recent research</a> suggests the AMOC has already weakened by around 15% since the middle of the 20th century. If this continues, it could have a major impact on the climate of the northern hemisphere, but particularly Europe. It may even lead to the <a href="https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10871/39731?show=full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cessation of arable farming</a> in the UK, for instance.</p><p>It may also reduce rainfall over the Amazon basin, impact the monsoon systems in Asia and, by bringing warm waters into the Southern Ocean, further destabilize ice in Antarctica and accelerate global sea level rise.</p>The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major effect on the climate. Praetorius (2018)
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