Sydney Faces ‘Catastrophic Fire Danger’ for First Time as 130 Australian Bushfires Burn
More than 130 wildfires were burning on Australia's East Coast Sunday, The Guardian reported. The blazes have killed three and destroyed at least 150 structures so far, and conditions are expected to worsen Tuesday, when the greater Sydney area will face "catastrophic fire danger" for the first time.
"Everybody has to be on alert no matter where you are and everybody has to be assume the worst and we cannot allow complacency to creep in," New South Wales (NSW) Premier Gladys Berejiklian told reporters in Sydney, according to Reuters.
Sydney is the capital of the southeastern Australian state of NSW and the most populous city in Australia. It is expected to see temperatures of up to 37 degrees Celsius Tuesday, which will combine with high winds to increase fire danger.
This appears to be the first such "catastrophic" fire risk designation (the highest level, above "extreme") for… https://t.co/59OM9dULkg— Daniel Swain (@Daniel Swain)1573365021.0
Firefighters and scientists have observed that it is unprecedented for so many extreme fires to ignite so early in the season, The New York Times reported.
"The consequences are absolutely apparent and evident over the last few weeks and particularly highlighted in the last 24 hours," Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons of the NSW Rural Fire Service told The New York Times. "We have got the worst of our fire season still ahead of us. We're not even in summer yet."
Scientists have predicted that the climate crisis would make Australia's bushfires more frequent and more extreme: Australia's Climate Council first warned that climate change was already increasing fire risk in 2013. The fires also come as the country has been suffering from a drought, and some of the affected areas are now burning.
Over six years the Climate Council has released 11 reports about the link between climate change and worsening bush… https://t.co/K3pSKPSR3p— Climate Council (@Climate Council)1573438596.0
But Australia's political leaders dismissed concerns about climate change. Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who supports the coal industry, refused to answer questions this weekend about the connection between climate change and the current fires, Reuters reported.
Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack went further on Monday, accusing climate activists of politicizing the sufferings of fire victims.
"They don't need the ravings of some pure, enlightened and woke capital city greenies at this time, when they're trying to save their homes," he told Australian Broadcasting Corp (ABC) radio, as Reuters reported.
I'm a rural Australian I'm a survivor of Black Sat bushfires I'm an agricultural scientist I'm a volunteer CFA fire… https://t.co/jv7bae98zH— Ruth McGowan (@Ruth McGowan)1573429340.0
Former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner and Climate Council member Greg Mullins pushed back against the idea that it was inappropriate to talk about the climate crisis while fires were burning in an opinion piece for The Sydney Morning Herald Monday.
"In the past I have heard some federal politicians dodge the question of the influence of climate change on extreme weather and fires by saying, 'It's terrible that this matter is being raised while the fires are still burning.' But if not now, then when?" he asked.
Greg Mullins is a former NSW fire chief who has just visited firefighters battling blazes in northern California. H… https://t.co/C6BKzt35Aa— abc730 (@abc730)1573425632.0
Mullins pointed out the fingerprints of climate change on the last two decades of Australian fires:
In NSW, our worst fire years were almost always during an El Niño event, and major property losses generally occurred from late November to February. Based on more than a century of weather observations our official fire danger season is legislated from October 1 to March 31. During the 2000s though, major fires have regularly started in August and September, and sometimes go through to April.
The October 2013 fires that destroyed more than 200 homes were the earliest large-loss fires in NSW history – again, not during an El Niño.
This year, by the beginning of November, we had already lost about as many homes as during the disastrous 2001-2002 bushfire season. We've now eclipsed 1994 fire losses.
Mullins also noted that this year's drought was more intense than a major drought in the 2000s; that this year's wildfires were making their own thunderstorms, something that did not used to happen often when he was fighting fires; and that fires were burning in new areas like rainforests in NSW and Queensland.
Terri Nicholson watched firsthand as the fire menaced rainforest from her parents' property in Terania Creek. Her parents, Nan and Hugh Nicholson, were instrumental to a successful blockade that saved the forest from logging 40 years ago.
"Nan and Hugh Nicholson hosted the site of the Terania protest to defend this great rainforest from logging and now we're here defending it due to the effects of climate change," Nicholson told The Guardian. "I don't even have the words right now. It's just gobsmacking and distressing to witness."
The deadliest fire raged near the town of Glen Innes in NSW. Two people died in that blaze, The New York Times reported. One woman was found unconscious and severely burned Friday and died in the hospital. Another body was found in a car Saturday.
The woman has been identified as 69-year-old Vivian Chaplain, a grandmother of six who died trying to protect her home, Radio New Zealand reported. The victim found in a car was identified as George Nole. Another woman, Julie Fletcher, died north of Taree.
At least seven people are also missing from the fire near Glen Innes, according to The New York Times.
"People were burned, lives were lost," Glen Innes Mayor Carol Sparks told The New York Times. "People battled to save their houses and then had to walk out because their cars had blown up — it was just horrific."
As well as extensive damage to homes, buildings and facilities, there is also broad damage to infrastructure includ… https://t.co/4IeS7Jt6v8— NSW RFS (@NSW RFS)1573269993.0
More than 50 fires were also burning in the northeast state of Queensland Sunday, where homes were destroyed and thousands were forced to flee, The Guardian reported.
"Most people just want to go back home to see what's actually happening. That's making them very anxious. That's what they're telling us," Red Cross Queensland's emergency services manager Colin Sivalingum told the ABC, as The Guardian reported.
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By Melissa Hawkins
After sustained declines in the number of COVID-19 cases over recent months, restrictions are starting to ease across the United States. Numbers of new cases are falling or stable at low numbers in some states, but they are surging in many others. Overall, the U.S. is experiencing a sharp increase in the number of new cases a day, and by late June, had surpassed the peak rate of spread in early April.
Seven day rolling average of number of people confirmed to have COVID-19, per day (not including today). This chart gets updated once per day with data by Johns Hopkins. Johns Hopkins university doesn't provide reliable data for March 12 and March 13. Johns Hopkins CSSE Get the data
To Have a Second Wave, the First Wave Needs to End.<p>A wave of an infection describes a large rise and fall in the number of cases. There isn't a precise epidemiological definition of when a wave begins or ends.</p><p>But with talk of a <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/new-covid-19-clusters-across-world-spark-fear-of-second-wave" target="_blank">second wave in the news</a>, as an <a href="https://www.american.edu/cas/faculty/mhawkins.cfm" target="_blank">epidemiologist and public health researcher</a>, I think there are two necessary factors that must be met before we can colloquially declare a second wave.</p><p>First, the virus would have to be controlled and transmission brought down to a very low level. That would be the end of the first wave. Then, the virus would need to reappear and result in a large increase in cases and hospitalizations.</p><p>Many countries in <a href="https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8" target="_blank">Europe and Asia have successfully ended the first wave</a>. <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/08/new-zealand-abandons-covid-19-restrictions-after-nation-declared-no-cases" target="_blank">New Zealand</a> and <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/06/08/how-iceland-beat-the-coronavirus" target="_blank">Iceland</a> have also made it through their first waves and are now essentially coronavirus-free, with very low levels of community transmission and only a handful of active cases currently.</p>
Different States, Different Trends<p>Looking at U.S. numbers as a whole hides what is really going on. Different states are in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html" target="_blank">vastly different situations right now</a> and when you look at states individually, four major categories emerge.</p><ol><li>Places where the first wave is ending: States in the Northeast and a few scattered elsewhere experienced large initial spikes but were able to mostly contain the virus and substantially brought down new infections. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">New York</a> is a good example of this.</li><li>Places still in the first wave: Several states in the South and West – see <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">Texas</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/california-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">California</a> – had some cases early on, but are now seeing massive surges with no sign of slowing down.</li><li>Places in between: Many states were hit early in the first wave, managed to slow it down, but are either at a plateau – like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">North Dakota</a> – or are now seeing steep increases – like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/oklahoma-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">Oklahoma</a>.</li><li>Places experiencing local second waves: Looking only at a state level, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/hawaii-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">Hawaii</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/montana-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">Montana</a> and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/alaska-coronavirus-cases.html" target="_blank">Alaska</a> could be said to be experiencing second waves. Each state experienced relatively small initial outbreaks and was able to reduce spread to single digits of daily new confirmed cases, but are now all seeing spikes again.</li></ol><p>The trends aren't surprising based on how states have been dealing with reopening. The virus will go wherever there are susceptible people and until the U.S. stops community spread across the entire country, the first wave isn't over.</p>
What Could a Second Wave Look Like?<p>It is possible – though at this point it seems unlikely – that the U.S. could control the virus before a vaccine is developed. If that happens, it would be time to start thinking about a second wave. The question of what it might look like depends in large part on everyone's actions.</p><p>The <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1086%2F592454" target="_blank">1918 flu pandemic</a> was characterized by a mild first wave in the winter of 1917-1918 that went away in summer. After restrictions were lifted, people very quickly went back to pre-pandemic life. But a second, deadlier strain came back in fall of 1918 and third in spring of 1919. In total, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/1918-pandemic-history.htm" target="_blank">more than 500 million people were infected</a> worldwide and upwards of <a href="https://theconversation.com/compare-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-and-covid-19-with-caution-the-past-is-not-a-prediction-138895" target="_blank">50 million died</a> over the course of three waves.</p><p>It was the combination of a quick return to normal life and a mutation in the flu's genome that made it more deadly that led to the horrific second and third waves.</p><p>Thankfully, the coronavirus appears to be much more <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.meegid.2020.104351" target="_blank">genetically stable</a> than the influenza virus, and thus less likely to mutate into a more deadly variant. That leaves human behavior as the main risk factor.</p><p>Until a <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-needs-to-go-right-to-get-a-coronavirus-vaccine-in-12-18-months-136816" target="_blank">vaccine or effective treatment is developed</a>, the tried-and-true public health measures of the last months – <a href="https://theconversation.com/this-simple-model-shows-the-importance-of-wearing-masks-and-social-distancing-140423" target="_blank">social distancing,</a> <a href="https://theconversation.com/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-the-science-is-simple-and-im-one-of-100-experts-urging-governors-to-require-public-mask-wearing-138507" target="_blank">universal mask wearing</a>, frequent hand-washing and avoiding crowded indoor spaces – are the ways to stop the first wave and thwart a second one. And when there are surges like what is happening now in the U.S., further reopening plans need to be put on hold.</p>
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By Emma Charlton
Gluts of food left to rot as a consequence of coronavirus aren't just wasteful – they're also likely to damage the environment.
Methane on the Rise<p>Not only is this a tragic waste of food at a time when many are going hungry, it is also an <a href="https://donatedontdump.net/2014/07/07/the-effects-of-food-waste-on-the-environment-by-junemy-pantig/" target="_blank">environmental hazard</a> and could contribute to global warming. Landfill gas – <a href="https://www.epa.gov/lmop/basic-information-about-landfill-gas" target="_blank">roughly half methane and half carbon dioxide (CO2)</a> – is a natural byproduct of the decomposition of organic material.</p>
Food decay leads to production of greenhouse gases, methane and carbon dioxide. EPA<p>Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 28 to <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf" target="_blank">36 times more effective than CO2 at trapping heat</a> in the atmosphere over a 100-year period, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.</p><p>"Many export-oriented producers produce volumes far too large for output to be absorbed in local markets, and thus <a href="https://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=2333" target="_blank">organic waste levels have mounted substantially</a>," says Robert Hamwey, Economic Affairs Officer at UN agency UNCTAD. "Because this waste is left to decay, levels of methane emissions, a greenhouse gas, from decaying produce are expected to rise sharply in the crisis and immediate post-crisis months."</p>
Food supply chains are easily disrupted. UN FAO<p>Dumping food was already a problem before the crisis. In America alone, <a href="https://www.refed.com/?sort=economic-value-per-ton" target="_blank">$218 billion is spent growing, processing, transporting</a> and disposing of food that is never eaten, estimates ReFED, a collection of business, non-profit and government leaders committed to reducing food waste. That's equivalent to around 1.3% of GDP.</p><p>Since the pandemic took hold, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-52267943" target="_blank">farmers are dumping 14 million liters</a> of milk each day because of disrupted supply routes, estimates Dairy Farmers of America. A chicken processor was forced to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/business/coronavirus-destroying-food.html" target="_blank">destroy 750,000 unhatched eggs a week</a>, according to the New York Times, which also cited an onion farmer letting most of his harvest decompose because he couldn't distribute or store them.</p>
Food Prices Collapsing<p>The excess has also seen prices collapse. The <a href="http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/" target="_blank">FAO Food Price Index</a> (FFPI) averaged 162.5 points in May 2020, down 3.1 points from April and reaching the lowest monthly average since December 2018. The gauge has dropped for four consecutive months, and the latest decline reflects falling values of all the food commodities – dairy, meat, cereal, vegetable – except sugar, which rose for the first time in three months.</p><p>All this while the pandemic is exacerbating other global food trends.</p><p>"This year, some 49 million extra people may fall into extreme poverty due to the COVID-19 crisis," said António Guterres, Secretary-General of the UN. "The number of people who are acutely food or nutrition insecure will rapidly expand. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fGhLKAbNDiY&feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">Even in countries with abundant food, we see risks of disruptions in the food supply chain</a>."</p>
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