Powerful Midwest Derecho Slams Trees and Buildings, Knocks Out Power to More Than a Million
10h
Climate
A John Deere agricultural tractor sits under a collapsed building following a derecho storm on Aug. 10, 2020 near Franklin Grove, Illinois. Daniel Acker / Getty Images
A powerful series of thunderstorms roared across the Midwest on Monday, downing trees, damaging structures and knocking out power to more than a million people.
<p>The storms, which produced winds of more than 100 miles per hour, formed a phenomenon known as a derecho, a long-lasting, far-spreading windstorm caused by a series of thunderstorms, <a href="https://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/derechofaq.htm#:~:text=How%20might%20climate%20change%20affect,comprise%20derecho%2Dproducing%20convective%20systems." target="_blank">according to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)</a>.</p><p>"This is our version of a hurricane," Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini told <a href="https://apnews.com/e7bfc5351814eb111f90f540d605514a" target="_blank">The Associated Press</a>.</p>
<p>While derechos usually occur one to two times a year, they do not usually blow as hard as Monday's storm, National Weather Service (NWS) scientist Patrick Marsh told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/10/us/derecho-storm-chicago-weather.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. He compared it to the "Super Derecho" of 2009. Gensini, meanwhile, said it would emerge as one of the strongest in recent history and one of the most <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">extreme weather</a> events of 2020.</p><p>The storm system began in southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska Monday morning before blasting through Iowa, northern and central Illinois, southern Wisconsin, southwest Michigan, Indiana and northwest Ohio, <a href="https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2020-08-10-derecho-forecast-midwest-severe-thunderstorms-chicago" target="_blank">The Weather Channel reported</a>.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vbWVkaWEucmJsLm1zL2ltYWdlP3U9JTJGbWVkaWElMkZFZklSbWU2V3NBQXd6b2suanBnJTNBbWVkaXVtJmhvPWh0dHBzJTNBJTJGJTJGcGJzLnR3aW1nLmNvbSZzPTM5Jmg9ZjczZTUzMGQ2ODhmZGZmN2YzN2M2ZGI4ZGFlNWJiNDk0MTFmYTFmY2I1NzAxMzMzMTRiYjA0MmIxYWFlNTFjYyZzaXplPTk4MHgmYz0zMDkyMjg5MTA4IiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMzIyMTYyMH0.Enf6XFlpzTRPAVGlA0sPrN1PBi5KoNRV8WTNkVN1Uu0/img.jpg" id="165e4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c5c8469bc2a301c8c79649b2d5beeceb" />Twitter
<p>Winds of up to 100 miles per hour ripped through Marshall County, Iowa, leading to several injuries and extensive property damage, the county's homeland security coordinator Kim Elder told The Associated Press.</p><p>Elder said the storm blew over trees and cars, downed power lines, ripped the roofs off of buildings and started fires. All told, a third of customers in Iowa were without power, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/10/weather/derecho-forecast-chicago-severe-storms/index.html" target="_blank">according to CNN</a>.</p><p>"Everybody in town is without power except those with a generator," Marshalltown, Iowa Mayor Joel Greer told The New York Times. Greer declared a state of emergency for the city, which he said was still recovering from a 2018 tornado. "It hit us at a time when we were just getting back on our feet," Greer said.</p>
<div id="755f8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="34ba091ea22ed744e1615045caabe1f9"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1292893389558620160" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Check out images of storm damage sent by viewers across central Iowa. https://t.co/nr4KD4ZbVS #iawx #SevereWX https://t.co/y4rm2uEbBJ</div> — WHO 13 News (@WHO 13 News)<a href="https://twitter.com/WHO13news/statuses/1292893389558620160">1597084779.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The storms entered the Chicago area around 3:30 p.m. according to <a href="https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/more-than-10k-comed-customers-without-power-as-a-result-of-dangerous-winds/2320118/" target="_blank">NBC 5 Chicago</a>. They downed trees and knocked out power to more than 500,000 ComEd customers.</p><p>"Much of northern Illinois has pockets of damage with downed trees, debris, and powerlines blocking roadways," NWS Chicago <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSChicago/status/1292938558274248705" target="_blank">tweeted</a>.</p><p>A wind gust of 92 miles per hour was reported near Dixon, Illinois, about 100 miles west of Chicago, The Associated Press reported.</p>
<div id="eb795" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d0b37a0b02e97bcde0744ec21a9da3a3"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1292928957583687680" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Hold on #chcago here she co.e 80mpg winds @nbcchicago @fox32news https://t.co/vsGhDG0N1t</div> — Michael Kinsch (@Michael Kinsch)<a href="https://twitter.com/MKinsch/statuses/1292928957583687680">1597093259.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Monday's derecho was formed by unstable, wet air that had remained over the Midwest for several days, The Associated Press explained.</p><p>"They are basically self-sustaining amoebas of thunderstorms," Gensini said. "Once they get going like they did across Iowa, it's really hard to stop these suckers."</p><p>It is unclear what impact the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> will have on derechos, as the SPC explained:</p><blockquote>A warmer planet at first glance would appear to be more conducive to the development of the intense thunderstorms that comprise derecho-producing convective systems. But thunderstorm updrafts require the presence of strong <em>vertical</em> temperature gradients; any warming occurring at the surface likely also would occur aloft. Thus, the net change in instability due to thermal changes likely would be minimal. And, although a warmer environment implies greater atmospheric moisture content and conditional instability (instability related to the release of latent heat during condensation), all other factors remaining equal, the increased moisture likely also would yield more widespread low-level cloud cover. Such cloudiness would negatively impact storm initiation and derecho development. What is more certain is that the band of enhanced upper-level flow that encircles the planet --- the <em>jet stream</em> --- would contract poleward in a warmer world. Because derechos tend to form on the equatorward side of the jet stream along the northern fringes of warm high pressure ("fair weather") systems, it is reasonable to conclude that the corridors of maximum derecho frequency would shift poleward with global warming.</blockquote><p>Derechos, however, interact with other extreme weather conditions related to a warming planet. Marsh warned that the power outages could have a negative impact on vulnerable people in the region dealing with high heat. He said the power outages also compounded the problems caused by the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic.</p><p>"[I]t becomes dire pretty quickly," he told The Associated Press.</p>
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Hurricane Florence on Sept. 12, 2018. ESA / A.Gerst / CC BY-SA 2.0
Hurricane forecasters predict the 2020 hurricane season will be the second-most active in nearly four decades.
<p>Meteorologists at Colorado State University, a standard bearer for seasonal hurricane predictions, <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2020-08.pdf?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8zppZX1aY8kszJMl4pymaG2IVnBoxg_RsagLPapjJ8aGo2XQ968cLrBctxgq9xd2xxXARykY6pJeW2jeyJQXvoYQceuKtwcrqZPG5zx_5RuqYi30k" target="_blank">estimate</a> the 2020 season will see 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Each of those predictions are about double that for a normal season, and include storms that have already occurred. The 2020 season has already set numerous records for its early activity, with about 90% of the official season ahead. </p>
<p>Even if 2020 sees fewer storms than the new prediction — which is the most dire in CSU's 37-year history — officials may still run out of letters with which to name storms and be forced to use the Greek alphabet for overflow since the letters Q, U, X, Y and Z are not used. The only other time officials were forced to use the Greek alphabet was 2005 which included five hurricanes (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma) so destructive their names have been <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20200206163321/https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/documents/FINAL-REPORT-HC-28.pdf?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=2&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8zppZX1aY8kszJMl4pymaG2IVnBoxg_RsagLPapjJ8aGo2XQ968cLrBctxgq9xd2xxXARykY6pJeW2jeyJQXvoYQceuKtwcrqZPG5zx_5RuqYi30k" target="_blank">retired</a> from future use.</p>
<p><strong>For a deeper dive:</strong> <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-05-2020-atlantic-hurricane-season-august-forecast?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9IeFic75USwIHEONdWfCYXQ8_7OUfGg935e2ZWAJ19r-S7PFFYnkEShxJuDADx--LfAWh9Re8qZUABmO28GxjuO6LAZQ&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">Weather Channel</a>, <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/news/510743-forecasters-predicting-extremely-active-hurricane-season?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz--hsOZRdAx5CW0_AthIxD9BdjfNezoxng3dWCeggOgY1yRG8bNuG8vVBKT6Nj7gRdMdKIlp64NhEWe7lEG5AhMtAWbt0Q&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">The Hill</a>, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-extremely-active-24-named-storms/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/05/hurricane-season-2020-forecasters-new-prediction-storms/3300043001/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_Gv965dHJB2Gw4UflskHjum7HNV0oIQNQsmt6xf8c7UhOJWdzBmJg6KQG2Y2IUfwcf0SC_5breM_diZwqBsLGlIOCQ1Q&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">USA Today</a>, <a href="https://www.news4jax.com/weather/2020/08/05/csu-now-predicts-24-named-storms-this-hurricane-season/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-98p9Sx1J9aCYELsYqAxq_NvnUKiuPGenlr8RhjE5Vl0BXqwwrTb3-rNVWnqlQ1p_S822-x3M1kH4bO6BQX77k6fXOBQQ&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">News4JAX</a>, <a href="https://www.wyff4.com/article/new-hurricane-season-outlooks-issued-by-csu-following-record-start/33526545?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_Es88-ppyd952aYUVMbtPBKFjm-SCwIgxKgtJa7ARuuYvj0KrpWAJu9weBR8Yj1UNjbNavxkpfTUEgYhXTJXRgWhcpvQ&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">WYFF4</a>, <a href="https://www.wfla.com/weather/tracking-the-tropics/tracking-the-tropics-experts-update-hurricane-season-forecast-to-extremely-active-with-24-named-storms/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8gI_x82R_Ym-JpgNAe36TIeCmpYq_tL0h3E4Po56Is0VXZV7SER6dHcOd5VKF6toR3zyS6NNJt0-HVF9CGsg6Qo3m93A&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">WFLA</a>, <a href="https://www.wmbfnews.com/2020/08/05/first-alert-colorado-state-researchers-now-forecasting-one-most-active-hurricane-seasons-ever/?utm_campaign=Hot%20News&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=92748923&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8LSCUABuP8V2moEiiA_iXxA_lWNdOdQI-Va28nwthmTdB4jA580tIZqCSvXRZ0oxjkjn6TK5jKuXAXmTS8eRePWvdbhw&utm_content=92748923&utm_source=hs_email" target="_blank">WMBF</a>; Climate Signals background: <a href="https://newsletter.climatenexus.org/e2t/tc/VWK7-l2CwspQW29Q6_46m2pk6W805GfB4dqjyxN8Qx57B3p_9rV1-WJV7CgGrpW7Gz0R23XF3ZhVh2zck28rYDSW7P0DJ56yhFp5W6kXZM-2D0FtpW611m4m2B03y1W4Zr1DR3bx5ypW7Bq_zT3SJD_sW30xvBb6-p0wmV9XJxQ90-YR5N7dQDz7chFMZW1lNKnQ4lfvs6VC1DRX1CmQQ2W3_G0_V67fz6dN3Yts2wmJTDBN7fJpJb9NfShW4HfVvQ5bWCw_W5J8BKs5Fp9NPW1VfTt35YDYcvW5jPjbQ2hRlfxW5HFfBx4MSlm0W16YyZy4fBq5KW6qGJcf4FPc-wN1gdKHLpgq9FW5nsZgC70ZgGyW3S9Z7q1V2NGsW31pbsQ1130MN3mPW1" target="_blank">2020 Atlantic hurricane season</a><br/></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://climatenexus.org/" target="_blank">Climate Nexus</a>.</em></p><p><em><em>For more </em><a href="http://ecowatch.com/climate-change-news/" target="_blank"><em>climate change</em></a><em> and </em><a href="http://ecowatch.com/business/renewables/" target="_blank"><em>clean energy</em></a><em> news, you can follow Climate Nexus on </em><a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus" target="_blank"><em>Twitter</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateNexus/" target="_blank"><em>Facebook</em></a><em>, and sign up for daily </em><a href="http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage1.com/subscribe?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=7c84c08aaa" target="_blank"><em>Hot News</em></a><em>.</em></em></p><p><em><em><em>Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly described the Colorado State University's updated hurricane forecast. The forecast predicts the highest number of named storms of any forecast CSU has published, but would result in fewer storms than the 2005 hurricane season. Additionally, the reference to the amount of the hurricane season still to come should have referenced the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, not the official hurricane season. This story has been updated.</em></em></em></p>
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Bicyclists pass a fallen tree in the Greenpoint area of Brooklyn, New York on Aug. 4, 2020 after Isaias left hundreds of thousands without power and prompted flood precautions in New York City. DIANE DESOBEAU / AFP via Getty Images
At least six people are dead after Isaias sped up the East Coast Tuesday, downing trees, spawning tornadoes, and flooding homes and roadways as it went.
<p>The <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tropical-storm-isaias-atlantic-2646825815.html" target="_self">earliest "I" storm</a> of an Atlantic <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_self">hurricane</a> season on record began its path of destruction late Monday night when it made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane in Ocean Isle Beach, North Carolina. It brought both flames and floods, causing at least five structures to catch fire, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/04/us/isaias-storm-updates.html#link-665175e7" target="_blank">The New York Times reported</a>.</p><p>"We didn't think it was going to get to this level," Morgan Strenk, who offered a family shelter from the flames in her vacation home even as its basement filled with three feet of water, told The New York Times.</p>
<div id="8db37" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9e605552627ca15c0e48ee50e3ac748e"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290507775966154754" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">At approximately 11:40 p.m., there were reports of multiple structure fires in the area of Ocean Isle Beach, North… https://t.co/2gaphSIzf4</div> — Horry SC Fire Rescue (@Horry SC Fire Rescue)<a href="https://twitter.com/hcfirerescue/statuses/1290507775966154754">1596516004.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The hurricane also brought storm surge flooding to Oak Island, North Carolina and rose the Cape Fear River in Wilmington, North Carolina to a record high level, <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-08-04-tropical-storm-isaias-forecast-northeast-flooding-damaging-winds" target="_blank">The Weather Channel reported</a>.</p><p>Isaias weakened to a tropical storm over Eastern North Carolina early Tuesday morning, <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1290543815502307329" target="_blank">according to the National Hurricane Center</a> (NHC). But it was still a deadly force as it moved up the East Coast.</p><p>One of the major hazards was falling trees, which killed at least three people in New York, Delaware and Maryland, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/04/weather/hurricane-isaias-carolinas-tuesday/index.html" target="_blank">according to CNN</a>. Trees fell from Virginia to New England, and more than three million homes and businesses lost power, The Weather Channel reported.</p>
<div id="1da84" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0ef51bac557980cd33dc801ec6d17598"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290740659368996865" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Haven’t seen tree damage this extensive since Sandy in Woodbridge, NJ. You can actually smell the trees. No power.… https://t.co/U0zTqaSYtL</div> — Collin Gross (@Collin Gross)<a href="https://twitter.com/CollinGrossWx/statuses/1290740659368996865">1596571528.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Another major hazard was tornadoes. The National Weather Service received more than 20 reports of twisters between North Carolina and Pennsylvania.</p><p>In one tragic incident, 12 people were injured and at least two people were killed when a tornado hit a mobile home park in Windsor, North Carolina, CNN reported.</p><p>"We didn't have a lot of time to react once it finally hit. I mean, it hit all at once," resident Desaree Pike told <a href="https://www.wral.com/" target="_blank">CNN affiliate WRAL</a>. "For lack of a better word, it was hell. You don't really think about anything else but just holding the kids and hoping it doesn't tear the house up."</p>
<p>One of the reasons Isaias was so dangerous, and spawned so many tornadoes without warning, was the speed at which it moved. As of Tuesday evening, it was still moving 40 miles per hour and still had maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour.</p><p>In addition to wind, the storm also brought widespread flooding.</p>
<div id="c0467" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="adcda918a351bc1fbeca5f93b86eff8d"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290770765009149952" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">As of 6PM Tuesday, we are forecasting flooding at 14 locations across the Mid-Atlantic region. Please follow the la… https://t.co/FcEKPBbIH2</div> — NWS MARFC (@NWS MARFC)<a href="https://twitter.com/NWSMARFC/statuses/1290770765009149952">1596578706.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Pennsylvania was especially inundated. One person died in the state when floodwaters swept away their vehicle, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/isaias-hurricane-tropical-storm-tornado-flooding-fires-outages/" target="_blank">CBS News reported</a>. Little Lehigh Creek and <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSMARFC/status/1290775238792241154" target="_blank">Perkiomen Creek </a>in Pennsylvania both crested at record levels and Darby Creek flooded a neighborhood in southwest Philadelphia, according to The Weather Channel.</p>
<div id="2ca46" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2c7ff0154aa438fdd332eb7644c0e29b"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290747910422966277" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">**Breaking - Darby Creek floods its banks into Southwest Philadelphia neighborhood near 84th St and Lindberg Blvd.… https://t.co/N1ZpaWnaGB</div> — Dan Patrick (@Dan Patrick)<a href="https://twitter.com/6abcDan/statuses/1290747910422966277">1596573257.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>A man and woman also had to be rescued in In Charles County, Maryland after flood waters swept their cars off the road, CBS News reported.<br></p><p>However, the storm's speed provided one advantage: It did not linger, which reduced river flooding and allowed emergency workers to respond rapidly, The New York Times reported.</p><p>"All in all, this storm got in, got out pretty quickly," North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper told "Good Morning America" on Tuesday, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>He said this meant the damage was "not as great as it could have been."</p><p>The storm has now moved into Canada as a post-tropical cyclone, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/050837.shtml" target="_blank">according to a 5 a.m. EDT update from the NHC</a>. It is currently about 55 miles northwest of Quebec City and is expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada Thursday.</p>
<p>But as the storm fades, it leaves a sobering reminder of what a future shaped by the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> could look like, The New York Times pointed out. Isaias struck the same week that the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/apple-fire-california-coronavirus-2646869340.html" target="_self">Apple Fire</a> forced thousands to evacuate in Southern California, and both disasters came as the nation still struggles to contain the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic, giving a foretaste of the overlapping crises we can expect if the climate continues to destabilize.</p><p>"State and local governments already stretched with Covid responses must now stretch even further," adaptation program director at the Georgetown Climate Center in Washington Lisa Anne Hamilton told The New York Times. She said better planning was needed to prepare for the disasters to come.</p>
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Rising Temperatures to Be More Deadly Than Infectious Diseases, New Study Says
04 August
Health + Wellness
A girl sits under a temporary shade made by joining two bed in Churu, Rajasthan on June 4, 2019. Temperatures in the Indian desert city hit 50 degrees C (122 F) for the second time in three days, sending residents scrambling for shade. MONEY SHARMA / AFP via Getty Images
Current efforts to curb an infectious disease show the potential we have for collective action. That action and more will be needed if we want to stem the coming wave of heat-related deaths that will surpass the number of people who die from all infectious diseases, according to a new study, as The Guardian reported.
<p>By the end of this century, extreme heat spells could kill roughly as many people as all infectious diseases combined, including HIV, malaria and yellow fever, according to <a href="http://impactlab.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CIL_NBER_MortalityPaper_3Aug2020.pdf" target="_blank">a new study</a> from the Climate Impact Lab, a group of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis" target="_self">climate</a> economists and researchers at several U.S. universities. Specifically, the study projects that climate change's effect on temperatures could raise global mortality rates by 73 deaths per 100,000 people in 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions stay where they are, according to <a href="https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/03/1005965/climate-change-fueled-heatwaves-could-kill-millions/" target="_blank">MIT Technology Review</a>. Under a scenario of continued high emissions, the researchers estimate that climate change's impact on mortality will cost the world roughly 3.2 percent of global economic output in 2100, according to the <a href="http://www.impactlab.org/news-insights/global-death-rate-from-rising-temperatures/" target="_blank">Climate Impact Lab</a>.</p><p>"The global cost to human health from warming is likely to be profound," said Solomon Hsiang, a climate policy researcher at UC Berkeley and an author of the study, in a UC Berkeley <a href="https://news.berkeley.edu/story_jump/without-action-climate-deaths-could-soar-by-centurys-end-says-new-study/" target="_blank">press release</a>. "We are studying the risk of death faced by our own children. Today's 10-year-old fifth-grader will turn 65 in 2075, facing mortality risks from climate change every year of their retirement. Failing to address climate change is not that different from driving your kids around without a seat belt: you are putting their lives at risk."</p>
<p>To conduct the study, the authors analyzed the historic links between temperature records and mortality data in dozens of nations, and projecting future deaths using highly regional climate projections. They sifted through the information in an enormous global dataset of 399 million death records across 41 countries, accounting for 55 percent of the global population. They also looked at temperature records to see how the two are related. That methodology allowed them to pinpoint both direct causes such as heat stroke and less obvious links such as a spike heart attacks during a heat wave, as The Guardian reported.</p><p>The researchers accounted for the mitigations that wealthy countries make, like air conditioning and cooling centers, leading them to the conclusion that poorer countries will bear the brunt of the suffering from extreme heat.</p>
<p>"A lot of older people die due to indirect heat [effects]," said Amir Jina, an environmental economist at the University of Chicago and a co-author of the study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, as The Guardian reported. "It's eerily similar to Covid – vulnerable people are those who have pre-existing or underlying conditions. If you have a heart problem and are hammered for days by the heat, you are going to be pushed towards collapse."</p><p>In the worst-hit countries, including Ghana, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sudan, climate change could be responsible for an additional 200 or more deaths per 100,000 by the end of the century, the research shows, according to the Climate Impact Lab. By contrast, places like Canada and Norway will see fewer weather-related deaths and fewer people will die from freezing temperatures as they become less frequent.</p><p>"You see the really bad impacts at the tropics," added Jina. "There's not one single worldwide condition, there's a lot of different changes with poorer people much more affected with limited ability to adapt. The richer countries, even if they have increases in mortality, can pay more to adapt to it. It's really the people who have done the least to cause climate change who are suffering from it."</p>
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Isiais now approaches the Carolinas, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane again before reaching them Monday night. NOAA
Florida was spared the worst of Isaias, the earliest "I" storm on record of the Atlantic hurricane season and the second hurricane of the 2020 season.
<p>The storm's projected path had prompted fears that Floridians would have to evacuate in large numbers as the state struggles to contain the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic. But Isaias weakened to a tropical storm Saturday afternoon, <a href="https://abc11.com/isaias-track-storm-tropical-where-is-now/6350016/" target="_blank">ABC 11 reported</a>. It also remained offshore, drenching parts of the Florida coast with rain but largely sparing the state, according to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/02/tropical-storm-isaias-nears-east-coast-florida-aims-carolinas-next/5566396002/" target="_blank">USA TODAY</a>.</p><p>"Florida dodged a bullet for sure!" BAM Weather meteorologist Ryan Maue tweeted. </p>
<div id="14b13" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3dabcc399c214226e768937f555a5ebc"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1289943962405318657" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Tropical Storm #Isaias no longer expected to restrengthen into a hurricane. 🌀 The vertical wind shear shredder has… https://t.co/kqBsJOS3Tj</div> — Ryan Maue (@Ryan Maue)<a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/statuses/1289943962405318657">1596381581.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>However, Isiais isn't done with the U.S. yet. It now approaches the Carolinas, and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane again before reaching them Monday night, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/03/weather/tropical-storm-isaias-carolinas-monday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>.</p><p>A storm surge warning is in effect from Edisto Beach in South Carolina to Cape Fear in North Carolina, along with parts of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the North Carolina Outer Banks from Oregon Inlet to the North Carolina and Virginia borders. It could raise water levels by three to five feet from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina, according to an 11 a.m. EDT update from the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> (NHC).</p><p>"A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations," NHC explained.</p>
<div id="dea35" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="132c2812ba753aaaf415ad33fb7ff2c0"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290213982947737600" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Here are the 5 am EDT Monday, August 3 Key Messages for Tropical Storm #Isaias. For the full advisory on #Isaias, v… https://t.co/5MbSBJmEhI</div> — National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/statuses/1290213982947737600">1596445959.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The North Carolina coastal communities of Ocracoke Island and Hatteras Island were evacuated Friday ahead of the storm, CNN reported.</p><p>President Donald Trump approved a disaster declaration for parts of North Carolina, and Gov. Roy Cooper reminded residents Sunday to have their emergency kits ready, ABC 11 reported.</p><p>South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, meanwhile, said Friday he would not issue any evacuations.</p><p>"Right now we're hoping this storm will not hit us hard if it hits at all," McMaster said in the CNN story. "At this time we have no intention at all of declaring any sort of evacuation."</p><p>Isaias is expected to slowly weaken after making landfall and then travel north. It will bring strong winds to Washington, D.C., Philadelphia and New York, impacting the Mid Atlantic states on Tuesday and New Hampshire and Maine on Wednesday.</p><p>Along the way, storm surges and winds aren't the only threat. </p><p>"Heavy rainfall from Isaias will result in flash and urban <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a>, some of which may be significant in the eastern Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic, through Tuesday night near the path of Isaias up the East Coast of the United States," NHC wrote.<span></span></p>
<div id="80487" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="dcd38a3bef604d3ff7ef47552482cbe4"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290216672976986113" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">There is a moderate risk of flash flooding across portions of the eastern Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states from… https://t.co/C5Ys46ZetX</div> — National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/statuses/1290216672976986113">1596446600.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Tornadoes could touch down in coastal South Carolina Monday and eastern North Carolina into Tuesday. Twisters are also possible from eastern Virginia to southern New England on Tuesday.</p><p>Before Isaias reached the U.S., it knocked down trees and tore off roof shingles in the Bahamas, <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/hurricane-isaias-batters-bahamas-florida-coast-200801143455063.html" target="_blank">Al Jazeera reported</a>. Some residents of Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands, who were still living in temporary shelters following last year's devastating <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-dorian" target="_self">Hurricane Dorian</a>, had to be evacuated ahead of the storm.</p><p>"With everything not quite shored up, property not secured, homes not prepared, even a category one will be enough to set them back," Bahamas Mercy Corps Director Paula Miller told The Associated Press, Al Jazeera reported.</p>
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Water trickles down a hillside among moss next to the entrance to the Svalbard Global Seed Vault during a summer heat wave as mountains behind stand devoid of snow on Svalbard archipelago on July 29 in Longyearbyen, Norway. Sean Gallup / Getty Images
By Johnny Wood
What better place to build a Doomsday Vault than the remote, snow-covered islands of Norway's Arctic Svalbard? Sitting around 1,000 kilometers from the North Pole, the facility is buried in permafrost to protect the precious seed samples housed there. But a freak heatwave is causing the region's ice to melt.
<p>Following several days of near record-breaking hot weather in July, <a href="https://twitter.com/Meteorologene/status/1287060076365262849" target="_blank">Svalbard temperatures topped out at 21.7℃</a>, the country's meteorological institute reported. This is the <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/svalbard-home-of-the-doomsday-vault-just-recorded-its-highest-ever-temperature" target="_blank">hottest ever recorded here, exceeding the previous record of 21.3℃ set </a>over 40 years earlier and a stark contrast to the region's <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261996139_Introduction_in_TOPOCLIMATIC_DIVERSITY_IN_THE_FORLANDSUNDET_REGION_NW_SPITSBERGEN_IN_GLOBAL_WARMING_CONDITIONS_Edited_by_Przybylak_et_al_2012" target="_blank">average of between 5-7℃ for this time of year</a>.<br/></p>
Deep Trouble?
<p>The <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-it-s-like-inside-the-doomsday-vault-that-stores-every-known-crop-on-the-planet" target="_blank">Svalbard Global Seed Vault</a> – also known as the Doomsday Vault – is a gigantic bunker, sitting deep inside a mountain surrounded by snowy wastelands. The facility stores close to <a href="https://www.seedvault.no/about/the-facility/" target="_blank">900,000 seed samples</a> from around the world and acts as a sort of back-up plan for agriculture, should disaster render parts of the planet unlivable or the world suffer a catastrophe, such as nuclear war or extreme climate change.</p><p>It's been described as an "<a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2235116-svalbard-doomsday-vault-gets-first-big-seed-deposit-since-upgrade/" target="_blank">insurance policy for food security</a>."</p><p>Inside the vault, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-it-s-like-inside-the-doomsday-vault-that-stores-every-known-crop-on-the-planet" target="_blank">temperatures are kept below minus 18℃</a>, cold enough to keep the seed samples safe for at least 200 years, even without backup power. But climate change is causing problems for the vault.</p><p>In 2016, which was the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2841/2018-fourth-warmest-year-in-continued-warming-trend-according-to-nasa-noaa/" target="_blank">warmest year on record according to NASA</a>, soaring temperatures caused <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/20/doomsday-arctic-seed-vault-breached-permafrost-melts/" target="_blank">meltwater to breach the vault's entrance tunnel</a>. While no seeds were damaged, the <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/svalbard-home-of-the-doomsday-vault-just-recorded-its-highest-ever-temperature" target="_blank">floodwater left an expensive repair bill</a> and tarnished the vault's reputation as impregnable to natural or manmade disasters.<span></span><br></p>The Heat Is On
<p>Warming in the islands has been underway for some time. Figures for 2017 show average temperatures are between 3-5℃ hotter than in 1971, according to the <a href="https://www.miljodirektoratet.no/globalassets/publikasjoner/M1242/M1242.pdf" target="_blank">Climate in Svalbard 2100</a> report, with the largest increases affecting the inner fjords.</p><p><span></span>Between 2071 and 2100, average temperatures throughout the archipelago will increase by between 7-10℃, the report predicts, shortening the snow season and causing loss of near-surface permafrost.</p><p><span></span>What's happening in Svalbard is symptomatic of wider changes impacting the Arctic expanse, which is <a href="https://www.upi.com/Science_News/2018/12/12/NOAA-Arctic-warming-at-twice-the-rate-of-the-rest-of-the-planet/5141544580754/" target="_blank">warming twice as fast as the rest of the planet</a>. Parts of the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082187" target="_blank">Canadian Arctic are thawing 70 years earlier than predicted</a>, scientists from the University of Alaska Fairbanks found, a sign that climate change could be happening faster than first thought.</p><p>As warmer-than-average summers destabilize permafrost, much of which has lain frozen for millennia, methane and other gases trapped in the ice could be released at scale, accelerating climate change. In turn, warmer temperatures would lead to further permafrost loss.<br><br>Melting ice, on land and at sea, <a href="https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/11-arctic-species-affected-climate-change" target="_blank">destroys animal habitats for species like polar bears and Arctic foxes</a>, which use their snowy white coats as camouflage either to hunt for food or avoid predators.</p><p>Climate scientist Dr Boris K Biskaborn of the Alfred Wegener Institute polar and marine research centre found Arctic continuous permafrost ground temperatures increased by 0.39℃ between 2008 and 2016. A similar trend was found in Antarctica, with increases of 0.29℃ over the same period.</p><p><span></span>Warming ground temperatures are an indication of the extent of climate change. Biskaborn predicts melting permafrost could lead to increased Arctic air temperatures of up to 0.27℃ by 2100.</p><p><span></span>Svalbard's seed bank exists to protect the world's most valuable natural resources from catastrophe. If we want to avoid making multiple withdrawals, tackling the underlying causes of climate change is a priority.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/svalbard-seed-vault-arctic-climate-change/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>. </em><em></em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Satellite imagery of Isaias on July 31, 2020. CIRA / NOAA
Isaias, the earliest Atlantic "I" storm on record, strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane Thursday and now has the Bahamas and potentially Florida in its path.
<p>As a tropical storm, Isaias has already battered Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico. In Puerto Rico, still recovering from 2017's <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-maria" target="_self">Hurricane Maria</a>, the storm knocked out the power of 300,000 to 400,000 people, dumped five to 10 inches of rain and caused mudslides and flash <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a>, National Weather Service San Juan meteorologist Gabriel Lojero told <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/31/weather/hurricane-isaias-forecast/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. One woman went missing when her car was swept away.</p><p>"A lot of neighborhoods were submerged under water," Lojero said.</p>
<div id="6e2f2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ad3c7b65ff4e5430baa62dd1d5b18d9a"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1288973886441234432" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Southwestern PR | Suroeste de PR:
Flash Flood Warning in effect until 9:15 pm.
Aviso de Inundaciones repentinas en… https://t.co/k7IMKHlQJJ</div> — NWS San Juan (@NWS San Juan)<a href="https://twitter.com/NWSSanJuan/statuses/1288973886441234432">1596150297.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The Dominican Republic also experienced flooding, water and power outages and storm damage, <a href="https://apnews.com/db2517c2ff9ef9597a49cb57524cdbc9" target="_blank">The Associated Press reported</a>. One man died when he was electrocuted by a toppled electrical cable.</p><p>Isaias is now 340 miles from Nassau in the Bahamas with winds of 80 miles per hour, according to an <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/311157.shtml" target="_blank">8 a.m. EDT update</a> from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Hurricane conditions are expected in parts of the Bahamas today.</p><p>The storm is expected to reach the central Bahamas tonight and move near or over the Northwestern Bahamas and near or east of the Florida peninsula Saturday and Sunday.</p>
<p>One of the major potential hazards from the storm is rain. It is expected to dump four to eight inches of rain on the Bahamas, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and the Turks and Caicos islands through Saturday and one to two inches over Cuba.</p><p>"These rainfall amounts will lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as river flooding," the NHC warned.</p><p>Between Friday and Monday, the storm could dump two to four inches over South and east-Central Florida, potentially causing flooding. Heavy rains could reach the Carolinas early next week.</p>
<div id="36dae" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0015f4d2cae5180475f5b241bfa3288c"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1289128870101184514" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Here are the Key Messages for July 31 at 5 am EDT for #Hurricane #Isaias. The full advisory is at… https://t.co/8AG5wNA6jn</div> — National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/statuses/1289128870101184514">1596187248.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Isaias has slowed somewhat as it approaches the Bahamas, from 22 miles per hour Wednesday to 17 on Friday. This means it will have more time to strengthen as it passes over warmer water, the <a href="https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2020/07/31/hurricane-isaias-forms-in-caribbean-sea-and-is-still-headed-to-south-florida" target="_blank">Tampa Bay Times pointed out</a>. This could spell trouble for the Bahamas, parts of which were devastated by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-2640172331.html" target="_self">Hurricane Dorian</a>, which rapidly intensified last year.</p><p>"We know from past and recent experience that storms could change course very quickly," Bahamas Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said during a press conference Thursday, as the Tampa Bay Times reported. "They can intensify rapidly as we saw with hurricane Dorian. So I ask all Bahamians and residents to take this storm seriously and to make preparations."</p><p>Grand Bahama and Abaco, two of the islands in the Bahamas battered by Dorian, are also covered by the hurricane warning for Isaias, The Associated Press reported. People on both islands are still living in tents almost 11 months later.</p>
<div id="345a1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="479aeeb7859d59b4fbf7146de68a450d"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1289051000897015809" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">(1/2) 🌀 11PM CDT: Latest on now Hurricane #Isaias. Here is a late-night infrared satellite view of the storm which… https://t.co/rOqbY1j0Vc</div> — NWS New Orleans (@NWS New Orleans)<a href="https://twitter.com/NWSNewOrleans/statuses/1289051000897015809">1596168682.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>It is still unclear if Isaias will make landfall in Florida, lash the Florida coast without making a direct hit as it moves towards the Carolinas, or veer off into the Atlantic.</p><p>However, the state is preparing, in part by closing some of its <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> testing sites, CNN reported.</p><p>The approaching hurricane comes as Florida reported almost 10,000 new COVID-19 cases Thursday, and the combination of the two hazards complicates the response to each.</p><p>"Look, if we have a major hurricane here, then we're going to have to evacuate a number of people and then we're going to have to ... try to keep them separated as much as possible," Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Giménez told CNN. "That's a concern."</p><p>Isaias is the second hurricane in an early and active Atlantic hurricane season. Hanna, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-hanna-texas-2646805833.html" target="_self">which battered Texas last weekend</a>, was both the season's first hurricane and the earliest "H" storm on record.</p><p>A study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tropical-storm-intensity-climate-crisis-2646033123.html" target="_self">published in May</a> found that the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> is making tropical storms stronger and wetter.</p>
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Coastal Flooding Could Threaten Millions and Cost Trillions by 2100, New Study Finds
31 July
Climate
The last house to endure rising sea levels on Holland Island in the Chesapeake Bay off the coast of Maryland on May 23, 2010. The house collapsed in October 2010. baldeaglebluff / Flickr
The climate crisis may usher in a new level of global economic catastrophe and human suffering as extreme weather worsens and coastal flooding intensifies. A new study found that extreme weather will make coastal areas dangerous places to live as more intense storms crash into coast lines and increasingly high tides encroach inland, as The New York Times reported.
<p>"We are attempting to understand the magnitude of the global scale impacts of future coastal flooding," Ian Young, a professor at the University of Melbourne and an author of the study, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/climate-change-coastal-flooding-could-hit-20percent-of-gdp-by-2100.html" target="_blank">told CNBC</a>.</p><p>"Globally we need to understand that changes of this nature will occur by 2100 and we need to plan how we are going to respond," he said.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67736-6" target="_blank">study</a>, published in <em>Scientific Reports,</em> found that the economic damage from those storms and from periodic flooding may cost over $14 trillion and threaten 20 percent of global gross domestic product, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/weather/coastal-flooding-sea-level-rise-study-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>.</p>
<p>"This is on a 'business as usual' CO2 emissions scenario," said Ebru Kirezci from the University of Melbourne, who led the study, as CNN reported. "Business as usual" assumes a rise in average global temperatures at the upper end of predictions, if global emissions are allowed to continue on their current course.</p><p>The study pinpointed exact hotspots around the world most vulnerable to coastal flooding, as well as the potential economic impact on infrastructure and activity in those areas. As Fortune noted, the study also maps out in great detail the impact of episodic flooding caused by strengthening storm events and tides. Those events are predicted to be more damaging than the threat of slowly <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">rising seas</a> and will cause roughly 69 percent of coastal flooding by 2100.</p>
<p>Some of the regions that are particularly at risk, according to the study, are the following:</p><ul><li>The coasts of Northwest Europe, including Southeast England</li><li>The East Coast of the U.S., particularly the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland</li><li>India, particularly around the Bay of Bengal</li></ul><p>The study was a collaboration between researchers from the University of Melbourne, IHE Delt in the Netherlands, the University of Amsterdam, the University of East Anglia in the UK, and Humboldt University in Berlin, Germany, as <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/07/30/coastal-flooding-gdp-impact/" target="_blank">Fortune</a> reported.</p>
<p>The authors also predict that the global population exposed to coastal flooding could be up to 287 million by 2100, which is 4.1 percent of the world's population, as <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/30/climate-change-coastal-flooding-cost-14-trillion-worldwide/5545712002/" target="_blank">USA TODAY</a> reported.</p><p>"What the data and our model is saying is that compared with now, what we see as a 1-in-100-year extreme flood event will be 10 times more frequent because of climate change," Kirezci said.</p><p>If the world's nations keep emitting greenhouse gases, and sea levels rise just 1 to 2 more feet, the amount of coastal land at risk of flooding would increase by roughly one-third, the research said.</p><p>"Even though average sea levels rise relatively slowly, we found that these other flooding risks like high tides, storm surge and breaking waves will become much more frequent and more intense," said Kirezci, as The New York Times reported. "Those are important to consider."</p>
<p>The study seems to add to the mounting evidence that the world's nations can greatly reduce future flooding risks by cutting emissions rapidly, especially since that could lower the odds of rapid ice-sheet collapse in Antarctica that would push up ocean levels even higher than forecast later in the century, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>However, Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University who was not involved in the study, told The New York Times that the world has now warmed so much that significant sea-level rise by 2050 is assured no matter what happens with emissions. "That means we also need to start preparing to adapt now," he said.</p>
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Trending
The many manifestations of climate change — including heat waves, droughts, water stress, more intense storms, wildfires, mass extinction and warming oceans — all get progressively worse as the temperature rises. Jeff Ishee / Pexels
By Robert McLachlan
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.
If you have a question you'd like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz
Is humanity doomed? If in 2030 we have not reduced emissions in a way that means we stay under say 2℃ (I've frankly given up on 1.5℃), are we doomed then?
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-mclachlan-421911" target="_blank"><em>Robert McLachlan</em></a><em> is a Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University.<br/>
</em>
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<em>Disclosure statement: </em><em><em><em>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em></em></em>
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<em><em><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-we-doomed-if-we-dont-manage-to-curb-emissions-by-2030-143526" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em></em></em>
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<p>Humanity is not doomed, not now or even in a worst-case scenario in 2030. But avoiding doom — either the end or widespread collapse of civilization — is setting a pretty low bar. We can aim much higher than that without shying away from reality.</p><p>It's right to focus on global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the first instance. The many manifestations of climate change — including heat waves, droughts, water stress, more intense storms, wildfires, mass extinction and warming oceans — all get progressively worse as the temperature rises.</p><p>Climate scientist <a href="https://michaelmann.net/" target="_blank">Michael Mann</a> uses the metaphor of walking into an increasingly dense minefield.</p>
<div id="98101" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9c658bbc6292bd7eb49514c454053d13"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1078329950703357952" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">As I have been pointing out for some time, climate change isn't a cliff we go off at 1.5C or 2C. It's much more lik… https://t.co/tY8NoRq153</div> — Michael E. Mann (@Michael E. Mann)<a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/statuses/1078329950703357952">1545928869.0</a></blockquote></div>
Good Reasons Not to Give Up Just Yet
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> described the effects of a 1.5℃ increase in average temperatures in a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/" target="_blank">special report</a> last year. They are also nicely summarized in an article about <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/" target="_blank">why global temperatures matter</a>, produced by NASA.</p><p>The global average temperature is currently about <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">1.2℃</a> higher than what it was at the time of the Industrial Revolution, some 250 years ago. We are already witnessing localized impacts, including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-spent-two-weeks-surveying-the-great-barrier-reef-what-we-saw-was-an-utter-tragedy-135197" target="_blank">widespread coral bleaching</a> on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUyMzU1My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNzgxMjE4OX0.IJqJXZa1yVyysYGVhkKXlgnwj-9ECS5oLDMfJeYA4A4/img.jpg?width=980" id="d2359" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d17a07b33871ae3e0157b9db2ed9661d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
This graph shows different emission pathways and when the world is expected to reach global average temperatures of 1.5℃ or 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global Carbon Project, Author provided
<p>Limiting warming to 1.5℃ requires <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/cut-global-emissions-76-percent-every-year-next-decade-meet-15degc" target="_blank">cutting global emissions by 7.6% each year</a> this decade. This does sound difficult, but there are reasons for optimism.</p><p>First, it's possible technically and economically. For example, the use of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power" target="_blank">wind</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power" target="_blank">solar</a> power has grown exponentially in the past decade, and their prices have plummeted to the point where they are now among the <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019" target="_blank">cheapest</a> sources of electricity. Some areas, including energy storage and industrial processes such as steel and cement manufacture, still need further research and a drop in price (or higher carbon prices).</p><p>Second, it's possible politically. Partly in response to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement" target="_blank">Paris Agreement</a>, a growing number of countries have adopted stronger targets. <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/09/what-does-net-zero-emissions-mean-6-common-questions-answered" target="_blank">Twenty countries</a> and regions (including <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-act" target="_blank">New Zealand</a> and the European Union) are now targeting net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.</p><p>A recent example of striking progress comes from Ireland – a country with a similar emissions profile to New Zealand. The incoming coalition's "<a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/programme-for-government-what-are-the-main-points-in-the-five-year-plan-1.4279046" target="_blank">program for government</a>" includes emission cuts of 7% per year and a reduction by half by 2030.</p><p>Third, it's possible socially. Since 2019, we have seen the massive growth of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-children-are-carving-out-a-place-in-politics-now-adults-must-listen-and-act-123704" target="_blank">School Strike 4 Climate</a> movement and an increase in fossil fuel <a href="https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/commitments/" target="_blank">divestment</a>. Several media organizations, including The Conversation, have made a <a href="https://theconversation.com/media-impartiality-on-climate-change-is-ethically-misguided-and-downright-dangerous-130778" target="_blank">commitment to evidence-based coverage of climate change</a> and calls for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/climate/green-new-deal-questions-answers.html" target="_blank">Green New Deal</a> are coming from a range of political parties, especially in the U.S. and Europe.</p><p>There is also a growing understanding that to ensure a safe future we need to consume less overall. If these trends continue, then I believe we can still stay below 1.5℃.</p>
The Pessimist Perspective
<p>Now suppose we don't manage that. It's 2030 and emissions have only fallen a little bit. We're staring at 2℃ in the second half of the century.</p><p>At 2℃ of warming, we could expect to lose more than 90% of our coral reefs. Insects and plants would be at higher risk of extinction, and the number of dangerously hot days would increase rapidly.</p><p>The challenges would be exacerbated and we would have new issues to consider. First, under the "<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2009/06/proving-the-shifting-baselines-theory-how-humans-consistently-misperceive-nature/" target="_blank">shifting baseline</a>" phenomenon — essentially a failure to notice slow change and to value what is already lost — people might discount the damage already done. Continuously worsening conditions might become the new normal.</p><p><span></span>Second, climate impacts such as mass migration could lead to a rise of nationalism and make international cooperation harder. And third, we could begin to pass unpredictable "<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0" target="_blank">tipping points</a>" in the Earth system. For example, warming of more than 2°C could set off widespread melting in Antarctica, which in turn would contribute to sea level rise.</p><p>But true doom-mongers tend to assume a worst-case scenario on virtually every area of uncertainty. It is important to remember that such scenarios are not very likely.</p><p><span></span>While bad, this 2030 scenario doesn't add up to doom — and it certainly doesn't change the need to move away from fossil fuels to low-carbon options.</p>From Your Site Articles
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Tropical Storm Warnings Issued for Puerto Rico, Eastern Caribbean as Earliest ‘I’ Storm Threatens to Form
29 July
Climate
The system that could develop into Tropical Storm Isaias, as seen on July 28. NOAA
Tropical storm warnings were issued for Puerto Rico and much of the Eastern Caribbean Tuesday as a disturbance is expected to become the ninth named tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season Wednesday.
<p>The system looks set to continue 2020's run as a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-hanna-texas-2646805833.html" target="_self">record-breaking hurricane season</a>. If it develops into Tropical Storm Isaias, it will be the earliest "I" storm on record, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/28/weather/tropical-storm-isaias-potential-cyclone-nine-forecast-puerto-rico/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>. The previous record was set Aug. 7 in 2005, currently the most active Atlantic season on record. 2020 has already reached eight named storms earlier than any other season, Colorado State University Meteorologist Philip Klotzbach said on Twitter.</p>
<div id="b34c5" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="05548230a600d60c6aaa469ba42f1c14"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1287877196757889024" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">While 2020 Atlantic #hurricane has reached 8 named storms faster than any season on record, 6 years in satellite er… https://t.co/b1Ftu9YSAf</div> — Philip Klotzbach (@Philip Klotzbach)<a href="https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statuses/1287877196757889024">1595888825.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"[A] a tropical storm is forecast to form later today," the National Hurricane Center (NHC) wrote in an <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/290845.shtml" target="_blank">update at 5 a.m. Atlantic Standard Time</a>.</p><p>The system, currently dubbed "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine," is already generating tropical-storm-force winds of 45 miles per hour. However, it is not a tropical storm yet because it does not circulate around a round center, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers explained.</p><p>"When a circular center finally forms, that is when it will be called a tropical storm," he said.</p>
<div id="ddf2b" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="392873b31631495c70a195d386517400"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1288134295379468289" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">PTC9 is a large system with convection spanning roughly 1000 miles from SW to NE –– The elongated and open center o… https://t.co/FQPJViSS5J</div> — WeatherOptics (@WeatherOptics)<a href="https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/statuses/1288134295379468289">1595950123.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The system is currently located 385 miles from San Juan, Puerto Rico, according to the NHC. It is moving west-northwest at about 23 miles per hour and is expected to move over the southern Leeward Islands early Wednesday and reach the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night. It is then expected to pass near or over Hispaniola Thursday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas Friday.</p><p>In addition to wind, the storm threatens to dump three to six inches of rain over Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, the Turks and Caicos, the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands. It could also dump four to eight inches of rain over the Inagua Islands.</p><p>"These rainfall amounts could lead to life threatening flash <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding," the NHC warned.</p><p>Another danger are life-threatening swells and rip tides, which will reach the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands over the next two days and the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday.</p>
<div id="3e676" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="efdba9c450e8c6f26dfb2b7663735682"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1288399591440711680" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Here are the Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine early on Wednesday morning. The full forecast is at… https://t.co/ueCYPLRW1Y</div> — National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/statuses/1288399591440711680">1596013374.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The warning comes as Puerto Rico continues to recover from 2017's devastating <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-maria" target="_self">Hurricane Maria</a>, the <a href="https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article244538322.html" target="_blank">Miami Herald pointed out</a>. That storm wiped out the island's power grid—it took <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/puerto-rico-electricity-hurricane-maria-2596147659.html" target="_self">nearly 11 months</a> after the storm to restore power to all homes. Officials are worried about the impact any future storms will have. More than 450,000 Puerto Ricans briefly lost power Tuesday because a plant went offline, <a href="https://apnews.com/0f98f7d25a36529e4e59ec6a196b9af8" target="_blank">The Associated Press reported</a>. The cause is not yet known.</p><p>The storm also comes as Puerto Rico battles a spike in <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> cases.</p><p>Puerto Rico Gov. Wanda Vázquez said during a press conference that there were more than 300 shelters and more than 130,000 face masks ready for storm evacuees.</p><p>"We've lived through several emergencies at one time," she said. "I want you to remain calm."</p>
<div id="1c324" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7da35160075c8cb111656790404e0d29"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1288158663077748737" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Here's a possible view of TS #Isaias about 36 hours from now, via the latest HWRF model. A strong tropical storm pa… https://t.co/Vx0gNp0fHW</div> — Eric Holthaus (@Eric Holthaus)<a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/statuses/1288158663077748737">1595955932.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>There is a chance the storm could impact Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida by the end of the week, according to the NHC. If so, it could be another blow to the Bahamas after last year's damaging Category 5 <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-2640172331.html" target="_self">Hurricane Dorian</a>, the Miami Herald pointed out. However, the path of the storm is still unpredictable.</p><p>"The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts are more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it could move over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week," the NHC <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/102054.shtml" target="_blank">wrote early Wednesday</a>.</p>
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Hanna Pummels Texas as First Atlantic Hurricane of 2020 and Earliest ‘H’ Storm on Record
27 July
Climate
A Coast Guard aircrew conducts an overflight of areas impacted by Hurricane Hanna near Aransas Pass, Texas on July 26, 2020. U.S. Coast Guard photo
Hurricane Hanna, the first hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, battered the Texas coast on Saturday and Sunday as the state continues to battle the coronavirus pandemic.
<p>Hanna made landfall as a Category 1 storm at 6 p.m. EDT Saturday along the Padre Island National Seashore, around 50 miles south of Corpus Christi, <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/hurricane-hanna-first-atlantic-hurricane-of-2020-plows-toward-texas/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections reported</a>. South Texas, including Corpus Christi, has the highest coronavirus hospitalization rate in the country.</p><p>"Any hurricane is an enormous challenge. This challenge is complicated and made even more severe, seeing that it is sweeping through an area that is the most challenged area in the state for Covid-19," Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said on Saturday, as <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/hurricane-hanna-texas-tropical-storm-hurricane-douglas-hawaii-coronavirus-a9639141.html" target="_blank">The Independent reported</a>.</p><p>Abbott said that, to encourage social distancing, some people would be sheltered in hotel rooms. He also said that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) had approved an emergency declaration for the state.</p>
<div id="e6447" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="68b88ec3be5096a8bf5aa564d4a39827"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1287494695011196929" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">FEMA & President Trump have already approved the Texas request relief from #HurricaneHanna.
FEMA is providing reim… https://t.co/lTZ5UV1AcN</div> — Greg Abbott (@Greg Abbott)<a href="https://twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/statuses/1287494695011196929">1595797630.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Meanwhile, Red Cross Texas Gulf Coast chapter CEO Henry Van De Putte said the organization was working to keep its shelters safe by opening them at reduced capacity, conducting temperature checks on volunteers and evacuees and having a medical worker on hand at each location.</p><p>"Yes, coronavirus provides risk, but so does floodwater, so does not having electricity, so does not having required medications," Van De Putte told The Associated Press, as The Independent reported. "We're doing everything we can do possible to make it a safe environment."</p><p>Hanna made landfall a second time in Kenedy County, Texas, <a href="https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-storm-hanna/tropical-storm-hanna-threatens-flash-floods-on-covid-hit-texas-coast-idUKKCN24R0D7" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>. By Sunday, it had weakened to a tropical depression. There were no immediate reports of injuries.</p>
<div id="81229" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="65260d432f7dafbd575edbf3019ddbdc"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1287148796162584577" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Latest 0.5-km resolution visible loop from @NOAA's #GOES16🛰️ of #HurricaneHanna making landfall in Texas. Get the l… https://t.co/t0lZZwh86D</div> — NOAA Satellites - Public Affairs (@NOAA Satellites - Public Affairs)<a href="https://twitter.com/NOAASatellitePA/statuses/1287148796162584577">1595715161.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>In Port Mansfield, winds knocked down sugarcane fields and trees and even tore the roofs off of houses.</p><p>That included the home of 75-year-old Sharon Pecce, who was visiting a friend with her husband when the damage occurred.</p><p>"You could hear the wind blowing and the rain blowing and you looked outside you could see sheets of water blowing down the street," Pecce told Reuters. "It's scary to go through this at my age, a lot could have happened ... we could have been killed."</p><p>Wind also knocked over at least three 18-wheeler trucks and a recreational vehicle. Attempts to right the trucks shut down two miles of U.S. Route 77 in Sarita, Texas Sunday.</p><p>The storm also brought power outages and heavy rain. At one point, there were more than 283,000 homes and businesses without power, but that number had decreased to 98,000 by Sunday night.</p><p>The storm also dumped more than a foot of rain on some parts of South Texas, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/26/weather/tropical-storm-hanna-texas-hurricane-douglas/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>, leading to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a>.</p><p>In Mission, Texas, the National Weather Service declared a flash flood emergency as rising waters prompted several water rescues.</p>
<div id="02d54" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d1e256b3f9e04f1f239239e6fcb145c9"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1287356366311632896" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">❗️Help is here. A National Guard team equipped with high profile vehicles and boats are in #Mission to assist with… https://t.co/9mR6KGlb9m</div> — City of Mission, TX (@City of Mission, TX)<a href="https://twitter.com/CityOfMissionTX/statuses/1287356366311632896">1595764650.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Storm waters also flooded parts of downtown Corpus Christi, including the Art Museum of South Texas, according to Yale Climate Connections.</p><p>The storm passed over to northeast Mexico Sunday morning and is expected to break up over the mountains there.</p><p>"Heavy rain and dangerous flash flooding continue over northeast Mexico," the <a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1287671082711945217" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center said early Monday</a>.</p><p>Hanna extends 2020's emerging reputation as an <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/atlantic-hurricane-2646594495.html" target="_self">early and active Atlantic hurricane season</a>. It broke records as the first H storm of any Atlantic hurricane season and came well before the average date for the first Atlantic hurricane of a season — Aug. 10, according to Yale Climate Connections.</p>
<div id="46af1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="57c47b28e9dba4bce5bac58907c8a642"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1287036367088877570" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">#HurricaneHanna approaching Texas. I wouldn't be surprised at a little more strengthening before landfall this afte… https://t.co/a0EemgUyX0</div> — Marshall Shepherd (@Marshall Shepherd)<a href="https://twitter.com/DrShepherd2013/statuses/1287036367088877570">1595688356.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>It is also the fourth named storm to make landfall in the U.S. this year. The only other year to have four named storms make landfall so early in the summer was 1886.</p>
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