The Earth's atmosphere. NASA
By Jeremy Deaton
You may have heard about the hole in the ozone layer, which hovers over Antarctica. It has shrunk over time thanks to policies that curbed the use of ozone-depleting chemicals. In the nearly 40 years that NASA has kept track, it has never been smaller. That's the good news.
<p>The bad news is that a separate hole in the ozone layer briefly <a href="https://www.livescience.com/arctic-ozone-hole-closes.html" target="_blank">opened up</a> in the Arctic in March before closing in April, and climate change may be partly to blame.</p><p>This isn't the first <a href="https://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/NH.html" target="_blank">such rift</a> to develop in the Arctic, but it is the largest. Scientists say that in March, a stratospheric polar vortex — a band of strong, frigid winds circling the pole — corralled chlorine and bromine that chewed away at the ozone layer. Scientists said that <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2006GL026731" target="_blank">climate</a> <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2003GL018844" target="_blank">change</a> may have set the stage for a colder, and thus more powerful, polar vortex.</p><p>"In those years when a vortex can spin and set itself up and be undisturbed, it's getting colder and colder," said Ross Salawitch, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland. Cold air strengthens polar vortexes, allowing them to deal more damage to the ozone layer, he said.</p>
<p>This year's Arctic polar vortex was unusually strong and long-lived, helping to deplete the ozone layer. At the same time, currents that would normally deliver ozone from surrounding areas were stagnant. The bruising was far less severe than what is typically seen over the South Pole, though. At the South Pole, stratospheric polar vortexes are reliably strong thanks to the extreme cold, so the ozone layer regularly thins.</p><p>In a stratospheric polar vortex, high-altitude <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polar_stratospheric_cloud" target="_blank">clouds form</a> from trace gasses in the atmosphere. Pollutants containing chlorine and bromine are essentially benign until they run into one of these clouds. Then they transform into chemicals capable of terrorizing the ozone layer.</p><p>They still need sunlight to do their dirty work, however. That comes at the start of spring —around September in the Southern Hemisphere and around March in the Northern Hemisphere. As the days get longer, these chemicals react with sunlight to deplete stratospheric ozone.</p><p>Because Antarctica is so isolated from the rest of the world, a strong polar vortex can form undisturbed. That's not the case in the Arctic, where the mix of land and water surrounding the North Pole produces more dynamic weather that can weaken or disrupt a polar vortex.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzMwNjMxNS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NTQwNDE1N30.gWej2PmnNRQE8RsCuiF3UvmowoEgPqZXsKE4i8ZLvNo/img.jpg?width=980" id="8a1e9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="883655d17c29fcbc095e4aedcd0198a1" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Polar stratospheric clouds activate the chemicals that deplete the ozone layer. NASA
<p>Ozone holes rarely form at the North Pole — the last one appeared in 2011 — and they are typically short-lived. But what happens in the Arctic does not stay in Arctic. As a result of the damage, the ozone layer is now a little thinner everywhere else. While it will repair itself over time, the recent polar vortex has likely slowed the recovery.</p><p>At the South Pole, the ozone layer tears open yearly. Scientists first discovered the Antarctic ozone hole in 1985. Researchers determined that it was caused by chemicals containing chlorine and bromine. These include <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/chlorofluorocarbon" target="_blank">chlorofluorocarbons</a>, which are found in air conditioners, refrigerators and spray cans, <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/halon" target="_blank">halons</a>, which are found in fire extinguishers, and <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ods-phaseout/methyl-bromide" target="_blank">methyl bromide</a>, which is used to kill weeds, insects and other pests. The discovery was met with alarm, as the ozone layer filters out dangerous ultraviolet radiation, helping to sustain life on Earth.</p><p>"If there was no ozone layer, the ultraviolet radiation would sterilize the Earth's surface," said Paul Newman, chief scientist for earth sciences at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "Crop yields go down as ultraviolet exposure goes up." In humans, ultraviolet radiation can cause skin cancer and cataracts, and can weaken the immune system.</p><p>To restore the ozone layer, in 1987, countries adopted the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/event/Montreal-Protocol" target="_blank">Montreal Protocol</a> to stem the use of ozone-depleting chemicals. It worked. Over time, the hole grew smaller and smaller, and the ozone layer began to heal. By the middle of this century, scientists expect it will be fully restored.</p>
<p>While many Americans <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/faq/15/is-the-ozone-hole-causing-climate-change/" target="_blank">mistakenly</a> <a href="https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2010_10_Americans%E2%80%99-Knowledge-of-Climate-Change.pdf" target="_blank">believe</a> that the hole in the ozone layer is driving climate change, it may be that the reverse is true — that climate change is harming the ozone layer.</p><p>Carbon pollution is acting like a blanket, trapping heat in the lower atmosphere. As a result, it is both warming the surface of the Earth and preventing heat from reaching the upper atmosphere. As such, the lower atmosphere is warming, while the upper atmosphere is actually cooling. Polar vortexes grow stronger in the cold, producing more of the high-altitude clouds that activate the chemicals that eat up the ozone layer.</p><p>"The temperatures in the stratosphere will probably be decreasing somewhat, and so that may slow down the recovery of the ozone layer," Manney said. "We have this situation in the Arctic, where we have had a couple of winters in the last couple of decades that have been much colder than usual."</p><p>Newman believes that falling temperatures will do little to deplete the ozone layer, however. He is more concerned with how climate change will alter currents that replenish Arctic ozone or break up the Arctic polar vortex.</p>
<p>"We don't really see a strong cooling of the Arctic stratosphere," he said. "The question in my mind is rather, 'What is the impact of climate change on these large-scale weather systems?'"</p><p>Salawitch said that it is difficult to determine what, exactly, the future holds for the ozone layer in the Arctic. Models disagree as to how much or how fast temperatures will change at the North Pole, or what that means for the polar vortex. As such, some say Arctic ozone will continue to thin, while others project a speedy recovery.</p><p>Scientists emphasized that the recent ozone hole in the Arctic would have been substantially worse had countries not taken steps to curb pollution. They said the episode speaks to the importance of the Montreal Protocol.</p><p>"We do have to keep in mind that the Montreal Protocol was very successful in getting the world to stop emitting these chlorofluorocarbons. The ozone layer is starting to recover," Manney said. "It's a remarkable success story."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/another-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-climate-change-may-be-to-blame-f86825b19135" target="_blank">Nexus Media</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Ozone forecast charts produced daily by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service show predictions for total vertical ozone column values for the Antarctic region up to five days ahead. European Commission Atmosphere Monitoring Service
An unusual phenomenon happened in March and April when an enormous hole in the ozone layer formed over the Arctic. Last week, though, scientists tracking the hole noticed that it has closed, as CNN reported.
<p>Unlike the infamous hole in the ozone over Antarctica, which was caused by overuse of now illegal chemicals containing chlorofluorocarbons, the hole in the Arctic was caused by a combination of factors, including low Arctic temperatures, sunlight, pollutants and a particularly strong polar vortex, according to the <a href="https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF/status/1253273035248975873" target="_blank">Copernicus' Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS)</a>, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/world/ozone-hole-arctic-scn-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p>
<div id="3fb1d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="eab7dce6aac321537db000f02efff07a"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1253273035248975873" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The unprecedented 2020 northern hemisphere #OzoneHole has come to an end. The #PolarVortex split, allowing #ozone-r… https://t.co/UGQvQwSU0D</div> — Copernicus ECMWF (@Copernicus ECMWF)<a href="https://twitter.com/CopernicusECMWF/statuses/1253273035248975873">1587638550.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"These two are really different animals," said Paul Newman, the chief scientist in the Earth Sciences Division at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, as <a href="https://mashable.com/article/ozone-hole-arctic/" target="_blank">Mashable</a> reported. "This [Arctic ozone hole] is not comparable to the Antarctic ozone hole. If this was happening over the Antarctic we would be shouting for joy."</p><p>The hole over Antarctica opens up every year from August until October. However, it has improved dramatically since ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons were banned in the 1994 Montreal Protocol. Last year, the Antarctic ozone hole was at its smallest since it was first discovered, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/27/world/ozone-hole-arctic-scn-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p>
<p>While the COVID-19 lockdowns have improved air quality around the world and helped wildlife, the drops in pollution did not cause the ozone hole to close up.</p><p>"COVID19 and the associated lockdowns probably had nothing to do with this," <a href="https://twitter.com/i/status/1253273035248975873" target="_blank">CAMS said on Twitter</a>. "It's been driven by an unusually strong and long-lived polar vortex, and isn't related to air quality changes."</p><p>The hole in the ozone above the Arctic started in March when unusual conditions trapped cold air over the North Pole for several weeks in a row. That triggered a circle of cold air, known as a polar vortex, which led to clouds high in the atmosphere. Those clouds interacted with pollutants from human emissions and depleted the ozone gases above the Arctic. The hole it opened up was roughly three times the size of Greenland.</p>
<p>The ozone layer, which sits between 9 and 22 miles from the earth's surface, shields the planet from the sun's damaging ultraviolet radiation. The hole above the Arctic would have only posed a threat to humans if it had traveled or expanded farther south, as <a href="https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/24/largest-ever-hole-in-the-ozone-layer-above-arctic-finally-closes" target="_blank">Euronews</a> reported.</p><p>"It's unusual but not unexpected," said Newman, of the recent Arctic ozone hole, to <a href="https://mashable.com/article/ozone-hole-arctic/" target="_blank">Mashable</a>. "It's unusual in that we only have events like this about once per decade."</p><p>In 1997 and 2011, there were similar ozone depletions of the Arctic, according to Antje Innes, a senior scientist at the European Union's Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, who spoke to <a href="https://mashable.com/article/ozone-hole-arctic/" target="_blank">Mashable</a>. However, the extent of ozone depletion was far greater during this one.</p><p>Scientists insist it is too early and too rare to say if the recent ozone depletion portends a new trend. "From my point of view, this is the first time you can speak about a real ozone hole in the Arctic," said Martin Dameris, an atmospheric scientist at the German Aerospace Center, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00904-w" target="_blank">to Nature</a>.</p>
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A record-sized hole has opened in the ozone layer over the Arctic, The Guardian reported Tuesday.
<p>While both poles lose some ozone during their winters, the Arctic tends to lose much less than <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctica</a>, where the larger and more famous ozone hole is located, the <a href="https://www.esa.int/Applications/Observing_the_Earth/Copernicus/Sentinel-5P/Unusual_ozone_hole_opens_over_the_Arctic" target="_blank">European Space Agency (ESA) explained</a>. This year's anomaly is the result of a combination of unusually low Arctic temperatures, sunlight, wind fields and human emissions of ozone-depleting substances like chlorofluorocarbons (CFC).</p><p>This doesn't mean ozone-depleting emissions are increasing, director of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Vincent-Henri Peuch told The Guardian.</p><p>"However, this is a reminder that one should not take the Montreal Protocol measures for granted, and that observations from the ground and from satellites are pivotal to avoid a situation where the chlorine and bromine levels in the stratosphere could increase again," he said.</p>
<p>The ozone layer is a layer of protective gas in the stratosphere that shields Earth from the sun's ultraviolet light, which can cause skin cancer and cataracts, ESA explained.</p><p>In Antarctica, a hole in this protective coating is ripped every winter when cold temperatures cause high clouds to form over the pole, as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00904-w" target="_blank">Nature reported</a>. These clouds react with human emissions of chemicals like chlorine and bromine, which then deplete the ozone layer.</p><p>Usually, the North Pole doesn't get consistently cold enough for these reactions to occur. But this year, a "polar vortex" trapped so much cold air above the Arctic that there was more than at any time since 1979.</p>
<p>"The hole is principally a geophysical curiosity," Peuch told The Guardian. "We monitored unusual dynamic conditions, which drive the process of chemical depletion of ozone. [Those dynamics] allowed for lower temperatures and a more stable vortex than usual over the Arctic, which then triggered the formation of polar stratospheric clouds and the catalytic destruction of ozone."</p><p>The unusual hole is still smaller than its Antarctic counterpart.</p><p>"The ozone hole we observe over the Arctic this year has a maximum extension of less than 1 million sq km. This is small compared to the Antarctic hole, which can reach a size of around 20 to 25 million sq km with a normal duration of around 3 to 4 months," Diego Loyola from the German Aerospace Center told ESA.</p><p>It also is not expected to last as long. It formed around March 14 and is projected to disappear by mid April.</p>
<p>It is also unlikely to impact people, though there is a small chance it could move further south over southern Greenland, which would increase sunburn risk for people who live there, according to The Guardian.</p><p>But both ozone holes are ultimately on the mend, thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol that set limits on ozone-depleting chemicals. The Antarctic hole was the smallest in 35 years last November.</p><p>Overall, the ozone layer has been recovering at a rate of one to three percent per decade since 2000, according to the <a href="https://ozone.unep.org/sites/default/files/2019-05/SAP-2018-Assessment-report.pdf" target="_blank">2018 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion</a>, as ESA reported.</p><p>"At these projected rates, the Northern Hemisphere and mid-latitude ozone is predicted to recover by around 2030, followed by the Southern Hemisphere around 2050, and polar regions by 2060," ESA wrote.</p>
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Human Cooperation Can Restore Climate Patterns: The Case of the Ozone Layer and the Southern Jet Stream
26 March
Climate
The ozone hole in 2019 was the smallest since its discovery. NASA
Emissions from the chlorofluorocarbons and hydrochlorofluorocarbons used as refrigerants and aerosols didn't just burn a hole in the ozone layer. They also shifted the Southern Hemisphere's jet stream south towards Antarctica.
<p>Now, a study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00787-x" target="_blank">Nature Wednesday</a> found that the 1987 Montreal Protocol banning those substances wasn't just successful in <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/ozone-hole-nasa-2505934304.html" target="_self">helping to repair</a> the ozone hole. It also paused this jet stream shift.</p><p>"This is an object lesson in how the international community should react to global environmental challenges," the study's authors concluded. "Restricting dangerous emissions and changing business practices is also the way to combat global warming caused by greenhouse gases."</p><p>Previous research had shown that the jet stream in the Southern Hemisphere had been shifting south by one degree of latitude each decade until 2000, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/25/global-efforts-on-ozone-help-reverse-southern-jet-stream-damage" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>. This caused changes to storms and rainfall in South America, East Africa and Australia.</p><p>But after 2000, the shift stopped, and researchers were able to use a combination of models and computer simulations to determine this pause was down to the shrinking ozone hole, and not natural causes, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/the-ozone-layer-is-healing-and-that-s-good-news-for" target="_blank">ScienceAlert explained</a>. In fact, the shift may have even begun to reverse.</p><p>This is a relief to some parts of the world.</p>
<p>"The 'weather bands' that bring our cold fronts have been narrowing towards the south pole, and that's why southern Australia has experienced decreasing rainfall over the last thirty years or so," Ian Rae, an organic chemist from the University of Melbourne who was not involved in the study, said, according to ScienceAlert! "If the ozone layer is recovering, and the circulation is moving north, that's good news on two fronts (pun not intended)."<br></p><p>In Chile and Argentina, the reversal will bring more rain and less ultraviolet light, but farther north in South America and in parts of East Africa the change could actually reverse the greater rain and area available for agriculture that it had brought, The Guardian explained.</p>
<p>On a global scale, however, the news is a hopeful example of how we might act on the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis.</a></p><p>"This is good news, definitely," paper reviewer Alexey Karpechko of the Finnish Meteorological Institute told The Guardian. "It shows our actions can stop climate change. We can see coordinated action works. It is a strong message to us as emitters of greenhouse gases. This shows we can manipulate the climate both ways: in a wrong way and by reversing the damage we have done."</p><p>However, our failure to act collectively on greenhouse gasses so far means that the reversal in the jet stream's shift is not guaranteed to last: While the recovering ozone layer pushes it back to normal, greenhouse gas emissions draw it south again.</p><p>"We term this a 'pause' because the poleward circulation trends might resume, stay flat, or reverse," lead author Antara Banerjee, a NOAA scientist and visiting fellow at the University of Colorado Boulder, said in a university <a href="https://cires.colorado.edu/news/international-ozone-treaty-stops-changes-southern-hemisphere-winds" target="_blank">press release</a>. "It's the tug of war between the opposing effects of ozone recovery and rising greenhouse gases that will determine future trends."</p>
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A new study shows that half of all Arctic warming and corresponding sea-loss during the late 20th century was caused by ozone-depleting substances. Here, icebergs discharged from Greenland's Jakobshavn Glacier. Kevin Krajick / Earth Institute / EurekAlert!
The world awakened to the hole in the ozone layer in 1985, which scientists attributed it to ozone-depleting substances. Two years later, in Montreal, the world agreed to ban the halogen compounds causing the massive hole over Antarctica. Research now shows that those chemicals didn't just cut a hole in the ozone layer, they also warmed up the Arctic.
<p>Now a new <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4" target="_blank">study</a> has found that those <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ozone" rel="noopener noreferrer">ozone</a>-depleting substances (ODS), which were developed in the 20s and 30s were responsible for roughly one-third of global warming from 1955 to 2005 and half of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" rel="noopener noreferrer">Arctic</a> warming and sea-ice loss during that period. The study was published in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a>.</p>
<p>The ODS, which includes chlorofluorocarbons, were widely used as refrigerants, solvents and propellants and became ubiquitous in the 1950s. They acted as a strong addition to carbon dioxide gas, the most pervasive greenhouse gas. Unlike carbon dioxide, the halogen compounds that are ODS are entirely man-made, so they did not exist in the atmosphere before they were introduced in industrial and domestic products. Since the ban on them was implemented in 1989, their deleterious impacts have started to fade as they slowly dissolve from the atmosphere, according to <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-01/eiac-osc011720.php" target="_blank">a press release</a> from the Earth Institute at Columbia University.</p><p>While most research has focused on what these substances do to the ozone, this is the first study that ties ODS to the unprecedented rate of Arctic warming, according to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00108-2" target="_blank">Nature</a>. </p><p>"While the dominant role of carbon dioxide is undisputed, another important set of anthropogenic [greenhouse gasses] was also being emitted over the second half of the twentieth century: ozone-depleting substances," researchers wrote in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0677-4" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a>, as <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/banned-ozone-destroying-substances-arctic-warming-1483037" target="_blank">Newsweek</a> reported.</p><p>The team of researchers, led by Lorenzo Polvani from Columbia University, said this is the first time the warming effects of ODS have been quantified, according to <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/banned-ozone-destroying-substances-arctic-warming-1483037" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>.</p>
<p>The researchers looked at two different climate models, one model looked at what has happened in the world, the other removed all the ODS. Without the ODS, the Arctic would warm 0.82 degrees Celsius. However, when the ODS were factored in, the number jumped to 1.59 degrees Celsius, as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00108-2" target="_blank">Nature</a> reported. </p><p>The research saw similar dramatic changes in sea-ice loss. They were even able to run the models to compare various layers of ozone thickness. That way they found that Arctic warming was due directly to the presence of the chemicals and not to the hole in the ozone, according to <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00108-2" target="_blank">Nature</a>. </p><p>"This paper points out a large role for the ODS in Arctic warming, but we also have to remember the cooling effect of aerosol increases," Professor Martyn Chipperfield, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Leeds in the UK who was not involved in the study, told <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/banned-ozone-destroying-substances-arctic-warming-1483037" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>. "The cooling effect of aerosols is included in the models and offsets some of the greenhouse gas warming."</p>
<p>"For the ODSs, the exact mechanism which leads to a magnified impact in the Arctic remains to be determined," said Chipperfield. "It is a complex problem because there are many different major and minor ODS but only a few are treated in the models. Further modeling studies are needed to investigate this."</p>
<p>Polvani believes the study shows that the phase-out of ODS and greenhouse gasses could help stop ice-melt in the future. </p>
<p>"Climate mitigation is in action as we speak because these substances are decreasing in the atmosphere, thanks to the Montreal Protocol," said Polvani, a professor in Columbia's Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, in <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/emb_releases/2020-01/eiac-osc011720.php" target="_blank">a statement</a>. "In the coming decades, they will contribute less and less to global warming. It's a good-news story."</p>
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Saving the Ozone Layer 30 Years Ago Slowed Global Warming. Can Similar Cooperation Now Solve the Climate Crisis?
12 December 2019
Climate
A NASA image showing the ozone hole at its maximum extent for 2015. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
The Montreal Protocol, a 1987 international treaty prohibiting the production of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to save the ozone layer, was the first successful multilateral agreement to successfully slow the rate of global warming, according to new research. Now, experts argue that similar measures may lend hope to the climate crisis.
<p>"By mass CFCs are thousands of times more potent a greenhouse gas compared to CO2, so the <a href="https://www.state.gov/key-topics-office-of-environmental-quality-and-transboundary-issues/the-montreal-protocol-on-substances-that-deplete-the-ozone-layer/#:~:targetText=The%20Montreal%20Protocol%2C%20finalized%20in,%2Ddepleting%20substances%20(ODS)." target="_blank">Montreal Protocol</a> not only saved the ozone layer but it also mitigated a substantial fraction of global warming," <a href="https://eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-12/uons-hst120519.php" target="_blank">said</a> lead author of the paper Rishav Goyal.</p><p>Research published in the journal <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab4874" target="_blank">Environmental Research Letters</a> suggests that in addition to slowing today's global temperatures, the Montreal Protocol also kept the planet an average of 1 degree Celsius – and as much as 4 degrees Celsius in the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> – cooler than it would have been otherwise. The protocol was not only a "major success" in repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, but the researchers note that it has reduced global warming by as much as a quarter and has helped to substantially mitigate anthropogenic climate change both today and into the future.</p><p>"Remarkably, the Protocol has had a far greater impact on global warming than the Kyoto Agreement, which was specifically designed to reduce greenhouse gases. Action taken as part of the Kyoto Agreement will only reduce temperatures by 0.12°C by the middle of the century – compared to a full 1°C of mitigation from the Montreal Protocol."</p><p>The stratospheric layer in the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/ozone-layer-protection" target="_blank">ozone</a> absorbs harmful ultraviolet radiation from the sun and faced an emergency in the 1980s when researchers discovered CFCs were causing a "hole" that was inhibiting its effects, according to <a href="https://www.ozonelayer.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA</a>. The <a href="https://www.state.gov/key-topics-office-of-environmental-quality-and-transboundary-issues/the-montreal-protocol-on-substances-that-deplete-the-ozone-layer/#:~:targetText=The%20Montreal%20Protocol%2C%20finalized%20in,%2Ddepleting%20substances%20(ODS)." target="_blank">U.S. Department of State</a> reports that international efforts to reduce the impacts of CFCs and protect the ozone layer are expected to result in the avoidance of more than 280 million cases of skin <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/cancer" target="_self">cancer</a>, 1.6 million skin cancer deaths, and more than 45 million cases of cataracts in the nation alone by the end of the century.</p><p>"Montreal sorted out CFCs, the next big target has to be zeroing out our emissions of carbon dioxide," said study co-author Matthew England of the University of New South Wales. An editorial written by <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/07/opinion/sunday/ozone-climate-change.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> agrees, arguing that such a solution is possible if the world responds "with similar resolve" in dealing with greenhouse gas emissions largely responsible for climatic changes the world is seeing, but the issue is not quite as tangible as other environmental threats like clean water, smog and the ozone hole.</p><p>"Climate change, by contrast, has for a long time been seen as remote, something for future generations to worry about, and in polls has appeared far down on the <a href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/246800/record-high-name-government-important-problem.aspx" target="_blank">list of voters' concerns</a>," writes the publication. "In addition, there were no relatively expeditious technological fixes for carbon emissions, as there were for fluorocarbons, and as there were for the pollutants addressed in the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/clean-air-act-overview/1990-clean-air-act-amendment-summary" target="_blank">1990 Clean Air Act Amendments</a> …"</p><p>International movements like those led by teenage climate activist <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/greta-thunberg" target="_self">Greta Thunberg</a> are bringing awareness to the current climatic state while governing bodies such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-ipcc-report-2610866229.html" target="_self">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> and <a href="https://www.who.int/health-topics/climate-change#tab=tab_1" target="_blank">World Health Organization</a> are building policies to address health, wellness and infrastructure concerns associated with a changing planet.</p><p>The study authors write that the success of the Montreal Protocol demonstrates that international treaties to limit greenhouse gas emissions not only work, but they can impact climate in "very favorable ways" and help to "avoid dangerous levels of climate change."</p>
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"Weather balloons carry ozone-measuring sondes that directly sample ozone levels vertically through the atmosphere." phys.org / NOAA
An ozone depleting gas is on the decline after rising since 2012, according to preliminary data reported by scientists yesterday, as the New York Times reported.
<p>Scientists were previously shocked to learn that levels of a banned gas, the most abundant form of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) known as CFC-11, which was supposed to have been worldwide production stop by 2010 was actually on the rise again. The gas is partly responsible for degrading the ozone layer and creating a hole that hovers over Antarctica every September, according to the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/emissions-of-ozone-destroying-chemical-are-rising-again" target="_blank">National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration</a> (NOAA).</p><p>Researchers from NOAA published a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0106-2" target="_blank">paper in the journal Nature</a> last year that pinpointed an area in eastern China where unreported production of the gas was taking place. They found that from 2014 to 2016, emissions of CFC-11 increased by 25 percent above the average measured from 2002 to 2012. "We're raising a flag to the global community to say, 'This is what's going on, and it is taking us away from timely recovery of the ozone layer,'" said NOAA Scientist Stephen Montzka, the study's lead author, in a NOAA <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/emissions-of-ozone-destroying-chemical-are-rising-again" target="_blank">press release</a> in 2018. "Further work is needed to figure out exactly why emissions of CFC-11 are increasing, and if something can be done about it soon."</p>
<p>If the emissions increase went unabated, NOAA said that it would impede progress in restoring the ozone layer, which protects all of life on Earth from harmful solar radiation, as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">New York Times reported</a>.</p><p>Another <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1193-4" target="_blank">paper</a> published this spring found that 40 to 60 percent of global emissions were coming from two provinces in the eastern part of mainland China.</p><p>The new findings suggest that China has made significant headway in curtailing illegal production of the gas, which is used to make insulating foams, as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">New York Times reported</a>.</p><p>The new data was presented in Rome by a NOAA scientist, Montka. CFCs were first banned in 1987 at the Montreal Protocol, which is largely considered the most successful environmental pact in history. The success of phasing out production of CFCs as refrigerants and aerosol propellants has led to a remarkable recovery of the ozone layer, which may be fully restored by the middle of this century, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">according to the New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>Signatories of that protocol are holding their annual meeting this week in Rome and CFCs are on the agenda once again.</p><p>"The good news is, the report this morning shows emissions now going down significantly," said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, a research and advocacy organization based in Washington DC, as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">New York Times reported</a>.</p><p>For its part, China, which initially denied that its factories used CFC-11, walked back that position and submitted a report that detailed how it has ramped up monitoring and enforcement efforts, given inspectors equipment to instantly detect the presence of CFC-11, and built six regional testing laboratories. It also detailed the destruction of three factories that were producing CFC-11, as the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">New York Times</a> reported.</p><p>"China is clearly taking the issue very seriously and responding well," said Zaelke to the <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/climate/china-cfcs.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fclimate" target="_blank">New York Times</a>. "But that's not where the story ends."</p><p>He added that the Chinese report leaves unanswered questions about where the illegal emissions are coming from and how to stop them in the future.</p>
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Sunbathers are seen on Bondi Beach as temperatures soar in Sydney on Dec. 28, 2018. PETER PARKS / AFP / Getty Images
Australia is sweating through yet another record breaking heat wave, with the past four days among the country's 10 hottest days on record, the Bureau of Meteorology announced Tuesday.
<p>
The town of Port Augusta in South Australia hit 48.9 degrees Celsius (approximately 120 degrees Fahrenheit) on Tuesday, the highest temperature since record keeping began there in 1962. Meekatharra in Western Australia and Fowlers Gap and White Cliffs in New South Wales all broke their minimum temperature records when the overnight minimum reached 33 degrees Celsius (approximately 91.4 degrees Fahrenheit) on Monday, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/15/australia-extreme-heatwave-records-broken-amid-all-time-highest-minimum-temperatures" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.
</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="d13a4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="FOWQ851547647527"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1085354246369882114" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The past 4 days are in Australia's top 10 warmest days on record—and the trend looks like continuing today. The nig… https://t.co/y43CJsC0Rp</div> — Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)<a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_au/statuses/1085354246369882114">1547603591.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>
"It's quite a significant heatwave because we are expecting a number of records to fall across those areas for both minimum and maximum temperatures," Senior Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Dean Sgarbossa told The Guardian.<br>
</p><p>
Western Australia, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria, New South Wales and the Australian Capital Territory could all see maximum temperatures eight to 12 degrees Celsius (approximately 46.4 to 53.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average by the end of the week, with some areas seeing temperatures as high as 16 degrees Celsius (60.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. Parts of South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria could all break January heat records between now and Friday.
</p><p>
The high temperatures are beginning to impact the health of humans and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wildlife" target="_self">wildlife</a>. Sixteen people have arrived at emergency departments in South Australia and seven were admitted, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/jan/16/australia-weather-record-breaking-heatwave-enters-third-day-as-temperatures-soar" target="_blank">The Australian Associated Press reported</a>. South Australia's government has declared a code red to free up emergency funding to help the homeless. Also in the state, a Red Cross service that makes daily phone calls to vulnerable people during heat waves has been activated through Thursday, The Guardian reported.
</p><p>
"Heat is the worst of our natural emergencies with excess hospital presentations, ambulance transfers and even people potentially dying," South Australia's Chief Medical Officer Paddy Phillips told The Australian Associated Press.
</p><p>
In New South Wales, meanwhile, health officials warned that the high temperatures could lead to higher than normal ozone <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/air-pollution" target="_self">air pollution</a>, which could have an outsized impact on people with asthma or other respiratory ailments.
</p><p>
"Anyone experiencing severe respiratory distress should seek immediate medical help," Director of Environmental Health at New South Wales Health Dr. Richard Broome cautioned.
</p><p>
The country's plants and animals are also suffering, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/16/australia/australia-heat-wave-warnings-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>. More than a million dead fish have been found on the banks of the Murray-Darling River Basin, though environmentalists say this is partly due to the fact that <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/agriculture" target="_self">agriculture</a> consumes too much of the river's water.
</p><p>
"A lack of water in the Darling River and the Menindee Lakes means that authorities were unable to flush the system before millions of fish suffocated through a lack of oxygen in water," independent New South Wales lawmaker Jeremy Buckingham said in a statement reported by CNN.
</p><p>
Bats are also falling from trees in Adelaide and stone fruits like peaches and nectarines are starting to cook from the inside, with devastating impacts for farmers.
</p><p>
"The stone burns them, which means they burn on the inside, they become squashy and you can't use them," Dried Tree Fruits Australia chairman Kris Werner told ABC, as CNN reported.
</p><p>
The heat wave is Australia's second within weeks, as another <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/heat-wave-australia-2624522447.html" target="_self">broke records</a> between Christmas and New Years, and Bureau of Meteorology Regional Director for South Australia John Nairn said they were related.
</p><p>
"Since then we have not had a weather event that has pushed the hot air out of the continent and it's been recirculating back and forth," Nairn told The Australian Associated Press. "It's basically a very large pool of air that's been building and that's not being shed."
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</p><div id="6a6d2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8Z2XI81547647527"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1084218154782478337" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A hot air mass over the interior of #WA will migrate across to southeast #Australia over the coming days. Hot days… https://t.co/0LHtScorTR</div> — Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)<a href="https://twitter.com/BOM_au/statuses/1084218154782478337">1547332726.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>
In the longer term, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> has already contributed to an increase in the frequency and severity of Australian heat waves. The State of the Climate 2018 report, prepared by the Bureau of Meteorology and Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, found that Australia's climate had already warmed more than one degree Celsius since 1910.<br>
</p><p>"It's harder to feel that change in the average climate but we certainly see and feel the change in extreme events, which blows through to those really record-breaking temperatures that we see in capital cities and elsewhere," Bureau of Meteorology Manager of Climate Monitoring Dr. Karl Braganza told <a href="https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-set-for-more-heatwaves-and-fires-as-climate-change-hits-report" target="_blank">SBS News in December</a>.</p>
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The Orchard Road shopping area in Singapore on Nov. 17, 2018. TkKurikawa / iStock Editorial / Getty Images Plus
By John Bryson
On Jan. 1, Singapore introduced a "no smoking zone" along a three kilometer (approximately 1.9 mile) stretch of Orchard Road—one of the city's busiest shopping districts. It sounds controversial—restricting people's right to smoke in public spaces, as a way of tackling air pollution and improving public health. But smoking is not actually banned down the length of Orchard Road: instead, smokers will be concentrated in 40 designated smoking areas, spaced 100 to 200 meters (approximately 330 to 660 feet) apart.
<p>
Air pollution is a major challenge for cities around the world, as it's a significant cause of death and ill-health. City dwellers have a hard time avoiding the impacts of poor air quality, and children, the elderly and people with preexisting medical conditions are most vulnerable.
</p><p>
Air pollution directly affects business productivity and education, through sickness and loss of working days, and it can discourage inward investment and economic growth. So cities face a substantial penalty for poor air quality, before even accounting for additional public health costs.
</p><p>
Clearly, any attempt to develop solutions should be welcomed. But Singapore's no smoking zone is an odd intervention, because it doesn't seem to respond to <a href="https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/a-research-agenda-for-regeneration-economies" target="_blank">the nature of urban growth</a>, which requires an integrated approach across many different systems—from transport, to industry, to healthcare—to avoid its more perverse consequences.
</p><h3>The Root of the Problem</h3><p>
Cities are hubs of creativity and economic activity, but every act of consumption and transportation contributes to environmental pollution. One of the <a href="http://epapers.bham.ac.uk/3069/" target="_blank">basic strategies</a> for dealing with air pollution involves diluting and dispersing pollutants.
</p><p>
The no smoking zone simultaneously displaces smoking and concentrates it within small smoking areas. The level of pollution caused by each of these areas will be influenced by the environment around it, so ideally these environments will help to dilute and disperse smoke. For example, the density and height of buildings affects wind flows, which can help disperse pollution. Street canyons—consisting of similar rows of mid and high-rise buildings—inhibit dispersal.
</p><p>
Structures of different heights create a rough surface, encouraging more air mixing and leading to increased dispersion and dilution. <a href="https://new.devon.gov.uk/greeninfrastructure/" target="_blank">Green infrastructure</a>—that is, the network of natural features and spaces in a given area—can also act as a barrier between sources of pollution, roads and designated smoking areas and people.
</p><p>
But none of this will address the root of the problem. Most air pollution comes from the industrial and domestic burning of fuel for heating and cooling, electricity and transportation. Road transport emissions are the most important sources of urban air pollution, as petrol and diesel engines emit reactive oxides of nitrogen (NOx), and microscopic particulate matter (PM). The wear and tear of brakes and tires, as well as road dust, are also important sources of PM. In strong sunlight, <a href="http://epapers.bham.ac.uk/3069/9/TDAG_FSAQ_2017_BW_v2.pdf" target="_blank">NOx reacts with other compounds</a> to form ozone, a highly toxic pollutant at ground level.
</p><p>
Secondhand cigarette smoke significantly affects air quality in areas frequented by pedestrians, but this is only one ingredient in a very potent cocktail of pollutants. The World Health Organization <a href="https://www.who.int/tobacco/global_report/en/" target="_blank">recommends that</a> a no smoking policy be introduced for areas suffering from secondhand smoke. Long-term exposure to the micro-plumes of smoke which come from people who smoke cigarettes may result in the inhalation of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/cancer">cancer</a>-causing chemicals from tobacco, including <a href="https://www.cbc.ca/natureofthings/m_features/background-nitrosamines" target="_blank">nitrosamines</a>.
</p><p>
For Singapore, the challenge is that herding smokers into the 40 designated areas might result in a concentration of micro-plumes. City leaders will urgently need to conduct detailed analysis of the localized impacts on air quality linked with each of these designated areas. This research could then inform any changes to the location and design of the designated areas, including enhancing green infrastructure.
</p><h3>Redesigning the Streetscape</h3><p>
But the no smoking zone can't be the only thing Singapore's authorities do to tackle air pollution. There needs to be an integrated approach, which reconfigures the entire design of each streetscape across the city, to encourage the mixing, dispersion and dilution of pollutants and maximize the quality of the local environment, with an emphasis on green infrastructure and separating people from pollutant sources. Any effective air quality policy must also encourage the use of environmentally friendly public transport, and the shift towards <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/electric-vehicles">electric vehicles</a>.
</p><p>
The problem with Singapore's no smoking zone will not be enforcement, but in ensuring that this is part of an integrated approach intended to minimize atmospheric pollution. The danger for Orchard Road is that the policy may intensify the problem and the health results through concentration rather than dispersion.
</p><p>
All cities must develop effective solutions to air pollution. For many cities air quality policy enforcement is a major problem. For all cities the primary challenge is to avoid isolated policy interventions intended to address one air quality problem. The critical issue is to develop a much more politically challenging integrated or holistic approach to enhancing the quality of city living.</p>
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</p><div id="919da" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1EUVUS1576661962"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="986361190527000576" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">95% of World's Population Breathes Unsafe Air https://t.co/0NVplWFhsS @Greenpeace @ScienceNewsOrg</div> — EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)<a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/statuses/986361190527000576">1524001808.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p>
<p><em>John Bryson is a professor of enterprise and competitiveness at the University of Birmingham.</em><br></p><p>
<em>Disclosure statement: John Bryson receives funding from DFID and NERC to research air quality in urban areas. First, a project funded by DFID on air quality management in three East African cities: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Kampala (Uganda) and Nairobi (Kenya). Second, a project funded by NERC that commenced on Jan. 1, 2019. The West Midlands Air Quality Improvement Programme (WM-Air) is a new initiative to support the improvement of air quality, and associated health, environmental and economic benefits, in the West Midlands.</em>
</p><p>
<em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://theconversation.com/singapore-smoking-ban-sounds-radical-but-its-an-odd-way-to-reduce-air-pollution-109074" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em>
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A view of Earth's atmosphere from space. NASA
After decades of thinning, Earth's ozone layer is slowing recovering, the United Nations (UN) said in a report released Monday, highlighting how international co-operation can help tackle major environmental issues.
The ozone layer, which protects humans and other species from the sun's highly hazardous ultraviolet radiation, has been declining since the 1970s due to the effect of chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar gases found in refrigerants and aerosol spray cans.
<p>
<span></span>But the <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/2018/" target="_blank">new study</a>—<em>Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2018</em>—shows that ozone in parts of the stratosphere has recovered at a rate of 1-3 percent since 2000 due to the success of the 1987 <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/montreal-protocol">Montreal Protocol</a>, the landmark multilateral environmental agreement that phased out ozone-depleting substances.
</p><p>
"It's really good news," report co-chairman Paul Newman, chief Earth scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told the
<a href="https://apnews.com/835094e7af61414981259ed69dbb185e" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>. "If ozone-depleting substances had continued to increase, we would have seen huge effects. We stopped that."
</p><p>
That said, the ozone layer still has a long road to complete recovery. If progress continues, the Northern Hemisphere and mid-latitude ozone should be healed by the 2030s, followed by the Southern Hemisphere in the 2050s and polar regions by 2060, according to the study.
<span></span>
</p><p>
"I don't think we can do a victory lap until 2060," Newman added to the AP. "That will be for our grandchildren to do."
</p><p>
Notably, scientists have recently detected a
<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/ozone-destruction-cfcs-2569650319.html">mysterious rise</a> of CFCs out of eastern Asia.
</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="2c2e9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="KRYKGQ1576662653"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="997434162024996864" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Emissions of Ozone-Destroying Chemical Mysteriously Rising https://t.co/GsfDF0xvbx @climateprogress @tcktcktck @TheCCoalition</div> — EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)<a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/statuses/997434162024996864">1526641810.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>
Newman also pointed out to the AP that the refrigerants that are currently being also need to be replaced themselves with chemicals that do not worsen global warming.
</p><p>
Next year, the Montreal Protocol is set to be strengthened with the ratification of the
<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/montreal-protocol-2456738372.html" target="_self">Kigali Amendment</a>, which slashes climate-warming gases in refrigerators, air conditioners and related products.
</p><p>
<span></span>Still, the new report is "an inspiration for more ambitious <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change" target="_self">climate</a> action to halt a catastrophic rise in world temperatures," the UN said in a <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1024842" target="_blank">press release</a> of the new report, adding the findings "provide a ray of hope" less than a month after the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-ipcc-report-2610866229.html">dire report</a> urging drastic action to stave off catastrophic climate change.
</p><p>
The writers of the new report said that with the full implementation of the Kigali Amendment, the world can avoid up to 0.4 percent of global warming this century, meaning that it will play a major role in keeping the global temperature rise below 2°C.
</p><p>
<span></span>"The Montreal Protocol is one of the most successful multilateral agreements in history for a reason," Erik Solheim, head of UN Environment <a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/11/1024842" target="_blank">stated</a> in the press release. "The careful mix of authoritative science and collaborative action that has defined the Protocol for more than 30 years and was set to heal our ozone layer is precisely why the Kigali Amendment holds such promise for climate action in future."
</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="b42b0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="16PG5J1576662653"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="950348901114109952" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">New Study Showing Ozone Recovery Hailed as Model for Tackling Climate Crisis https://t.co/BQZtgMaQZK @Green_Europe… https://t.co/xnuyNDyeux</div> — EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)<a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/statuses/950348901114109952">1515415809.0</a></blockquote></div>
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In the past few decades, the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica has gotten less salty and has warmed at roughly twice the rate of global oceans overall.
Now, in a new study, scientists found convincing evidence that these trends are the result of two human influences: climate change from greenhouse gas emissions and the depletion of the ozone layer.
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The research, published this week in the journal
<em>Nature Geoscience, </em>was authored by scientists from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in California.
</p><p>
Using climate models, data from the
<a href="http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/" target="_blank">Argo</a> global network of floating ocean sensors and past records, the researchers determined that Antarctica's warming and freshening waters are directly linked to ozone depletion and greenhouse gas emissions, as opposed to natural variabilities.
</p><p>
This is the first time such a connection has been found specifically for the Southern Ocean, lead author Neil Swart of
Environment and Climate Change Canada told Canada's
<a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/09/25/news/first-time-scientists-prove-human-activity-top-cause-warming-antarctic-waters" target="_blank">National Observer</a>.
</p><p>
<a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change.html" target="_blank"></a>"While the influence of ozone depletion and greenhouse gas increases on the Southern Ocean have been suggested for some time, our research provides the evidence that links the observed changes to these mechanisms, and defines their relative importance," Swart said in a <a href="https://scripps.ucsd.edu/news/human-causes-only-plausible-source-warming-southern-ocean" target="_blank">press release</a> for the study.
</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="76b26" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="HD27F21576662690"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1044264454504898570" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Only 1 plausible reason for So. Ocean warming in last 50 yrs, say @environmentca and Scripps scis in @NatureGeosci.… https://t.co/1SFvN7XtJJ</div> — Scripps Institution of Oceanography (@Scripps Institution of Oceanography)<a href="https://twitter.com/Scripps_Ocean/statuses/1044264454504898570">1537807022.0</a></blockquote></div>
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The 1987
<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/montreal-protocol" target="_blank">Montreal Protocol</a>, an international effort to ban chlorofluorocarbons, has led to significant recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole. On the other hand, global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels and other industries have risen dramatically since the industrial revolution.
</p><p>
"Moving forward, the ozone layer is recovering while greenhouse gases are continuing to increase, leading to opposing trends," Swart added. "Our work suggests that greenhouse gases are more important than ozone in determining Southern Ocean trends."
</p><p>
<span></span>As so-called "carbon sinks," our oceans are key to mitigating the effects of climate change. The Southern Ocean is one of the most prolific carbon sinks, taking in nearly half the total amount of anthropogenic CO2 absorbed by the world's oceans.
</p><p>
But as the ocean's ability to absorb CO2 decreases, global temperatures could increase and lead to greater weather extremes such as heat waves and stronger precipitation events, Swart explained to the National Observer.
</p><p>
"It is vital to understand changes in the Southern Ocean because it is a key region of global heat and carbon uptake, and it underlies ice sheets with many meters of sea-level rise potential," Swart said in the press release.</p>
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="c36c1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ICBA3P1576662690"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="956986469117300736" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">2017 Was the Hottest Year on Record for Oceans https://t.co/mgXYGYewtd #Oceans @Oceana @Waterkeeper @Surfrider… https://t.co/hgHzppalGl</div> — EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)<a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/statuses/956986469117300736">1516998328.0</a></blockquote></div>
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