By Sara Peach
Dear Sara,
I live in a city that does not have great transportation options, and I live far enough from my work that I am not able to walk or ride a bike. I have a 15-year-old car that I am looking to replace.
<p><em>My husband and I are open to buying a hybrid or <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/electric-vehicles" target="_self">electric car</a>. We live in Michigan, and the gentleman at the dealership told us that in our climate, we would not get maximum efficiency out of a hybrid due to cold temperatures in the winter. Additionally, I understand that hybrid and electric cars have less of a footprint on the road, but require greater resources to create, thus negating the benefit. Is that true? – Christina in Michigan</em></p><p>Dear Christina,</p><p>One of the claims you've heard is true – but it's not the whole picture. And the other is false. As I'll explain, Michigan is an imperfect place to drive hybrid or electric vehicles. But overall, their benefits to the climate outweigh the drawbacks, so these vehicles can make solid choices even in your cold Midwestern state.</p>
<h4>Why Hybrids Can Be Better for the Climate</h4><p>Most cars and trucks run by burning diesel or gasoline in internal combustion engines. They contribute to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate change</a> by releasing heat-trapping carbon dioxide from their tailpipes.</p><p>Hybrid vehicles, by contrast, contain both an electric motor and an internal combustion engine. The electric motor assists the gasoline engine and in some cases propels the car on its own, boosting the vehicle's efficiency. Hybrids also take advantage of several fuel-saving features, such as powering off automatically at stoplights to prevent idling. As a result, they typically boast better fuel economy – and therefore a smaller climate impact – than vehicles running on conventional engines alone.</p><p>But be sure to compare mileage ratings: A hybrid SUV may get fewer miles to the gallon than a compact car running on a conventional engine alone.</p>
<h4>The Climate Benefits of Electric Cars</h4><p>Fueling and driving an electric vehicle generally produces far less carbon dioxide than a car with a conventional engine. That's because across much of the U.S., generating the electricity to charge the car produces <a href="https://afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/electric_emissions.html" target="_blank">less heat-trapping pollution</a> than burning gasoline or diesel.</p><p>That said, the mix of fuels powering the electricity grid makes a big difference to the climate impact. For example, California generates <a href="https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/almanac/electricity_data/total_system_power.html" target="_blank">less than half</a> of its electricity from <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels" rel="noopener noreferrer">fossil fuels</a>. As a result, the average electric car charged in the Golden State is responsible for the same amount of carbon dioxide as a gasoline car getting 109 miles per gallon, according to <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner" target="_blank">a Union of Concerned Scientists analysis</a>. In Michigan's Lower Peninsula – where a larger share of electricity is generated from fossil fuels – an average electric car pollutes as much as a gasoline car getting 49 mpg. That's worse for the climate than an electric car fueled in California, but still better than the average new car with an internal combustion engine.</p><p>In fact, most U.S. residents now live in a place where electric cars get at least the equivalent of 46 mpg, and often much higher. You can see the mileage estimate for your region <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/dave-reichmuth/new-data-show-electric-vehicles-continue-to-get-cleaner" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>When it comes to climate change, an electric car holds another advantage over vehicles with conventional engines: the opportunity to improve if and when the grid reduces its reliance on fossil fuels.</p><p>"If you buy a gasoline car, you know, the efficiency is set," said David Reichmuth, an engineer who studies vehicles at the Union of Concerned Scientists. "If anything, it gets a little less efficient, you know, as the car gets older – whereas the electric car could effectively become cleaner over time, not because it becomes more efficient, but because the electricity going into it will become cleaner over time."</p>
<h4>How Does Cold Weather Affect Vehicle Efficiency?</h4><p>Your dealer was correct to say that cold weather reduces the efficiency of hybrid vehicles. But that's not the whole picture. In fact, cold weather causes efficiency to decline in all three kinds of vehicles – hybrid, electric and internal combustion engine. In icy temperatures, vehicle batteries and engines simply don't perform as well as they do in warmer weather, among <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/coldweather.shtml" target="_blank">other factors</a> that drag down efficiency.</p><p>According to <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/coldweather.shtml" target="_blank">FuelEconomy.gov</a>, a gasoline car's mileage is 12 to 22% lower at 20 degrees Fahrenheit than at 77 degrees. For hybrids, fuel economy falls by 31 to 34% in cold weather.</p><p>But that need not deter you from purchasing a hybrid vehicle – provided you choose one with a high mileage rating. Top-performing hybrids, such as the <a href="https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/hyundai/ioniq" target="_blank">2019 Hyundai Ioniq</a> hybrid (58 mpg) and the <a href="https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/toyota/prius" target="_blank">2019 Toyota Prius</a> (56 mpg), will likely contribute less to climate change than vehicles with conventional engines, even accounting for cold-weather efficiency declines.</p><p>As for electric vehicles, <a href="https://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/es505621s" target="_blank">a 2015 paper</a> by Carnegie Mellon researchers found that the range of the Nissan Leaf can drop by as much as 36% in cold climates. Test drives of several electric vehicle models by <a href="https://newsroom.aaa.com/2019/02/cold-weather-reduces-electric-vehicle-range/" target="_blank">AAA</a> and <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/buying-an-electric-car-for-a-cold-climate-double-down-on-range/" target="_blank">Consumer Reports</a> have also found substantial range losses in cold temperatures. So don't miss <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/buying-an-electric-car-for-a-cold-climate-double-down-on-range/" target="_blank">these tips</a> from Consumer Reports, which advises those living in cold climates to purchase a car with twice the range they expect to use.</p><p>But despite Michigan's cold climate, the Carnegie Mellon researchers found that an electric vehicle will still likely pollute less than one with a conventional engine. Taking into account the carbon impact of the regional electricity grid and the diminished performance of electric vehicles in a cold climate, the researchers calculated that a Nissan Leaf driven in Michigan's Lower Peninsula is responsible for roughly 200 grams of carbon dioxide per mile driven. That's about half as much as the average new vehicle, according to <a href="https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?zipCode=90001&year=2019&vehicleId=40520&action=bt3" target="_blank">this greenhouse gas emissions calculator</a> from the U.S. Department of Energy and the Environmental Protection Agency.</p>
<h4>How Manufacturing Affects the Climate Impact of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles</h4><p>Christina, you've heard that hybrid and electric vehicles consume more resources to manufacture than vehicles with internal combustion engines. It's true that producing hybrid and electric vehicles <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/5/3/605/htm" target="_blank">requires more energy</a> – and associated greenhouse gases – than those with only internal combustion engines. Manufacturing batteries for electric vehicles, in particular, consumes a lot of energy.</p><p>However, that does not negate the climate benefits of the vehicles. Calculating the lifetime impact of the vehicles is complex, but various studies suggest that after they hit the road, hybrid and electric vehicles more than make up for their energy-intensive beginnings.</p><p>Reichmuth of the Union of Concerned Scientists, an author of <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/11/Cleaner-Cars-from-Cradle-to-Grave-full-report.pdf" target="_blank">one such analysis</a>, said that excess emissions from manufacturing electric vehicles are offset quickly: "As long as the car's driving for more than a couple years, there'd be a net emissions benefit," he said.</p><p>The bottom line: Either a hybrid or electric vehicle is likely a better choice for the climate than a vehicle with an internal combustion engine, even in chilly Michigan. But nothing beats avoiding unneeded car trips in the first place, so don't neglect to let your leaders know your thoughts on improving local options for walking, biking and public transit.</p><p>– Sara</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Top <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CleanCars?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CleanCars</a> for 2019 and 2020 <a href="https://t.co/mQpcdYb6Zg">https://t.co/mQpcdYb6Zg</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/CoolElectricCar?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@CoolElectricCar</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/EV_Research?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EV_Research</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1128404702754897920?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Wondering how climate change could affect you or your loved ones? Send your questions to <a href="mailto:sara@yaleclimateconnections.org" target="_blank">sara@yaleclimateconnections.org</a>. Questions may be edited for length and clarity.</em><br/></p><p><em>Sara Peach is the senior editor of Yale Climate Connections.</em></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/08/whats-the-best-kind-of-car-for-the-climate/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>Related Articles Around the Web
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More than 200 people demonstrated in January 2017 against the appointment of former ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson for secretary of state. Eman Mohammed / 350.org
By Jessica Corbett
New York state prosecutors last week accused ExxonMobil of trying to discourage witnesses from testifying against the company in a climate fraud case, leading the head of the environmental group 350.org to declare Thursday that "we won't be intimidated."
<p>In a statement, May Boeve, the avocacy group's executive director, also charged that "Exxon is polluting these proceedings just like it has polluted our communities."</p><p>Last October, following a three-year probe and amid growing demands that the dirty energy industry be held accountable for the impacts of its products, then-New York Attorney General Barbara Underwood <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/10/24/wow-wow-wow-huge-news-new-york-sues-exxonmobil-defrauding-investors-hiding-climate" target="_blank">sued</a> ExxonMobil for defrauding investors about the financial threat of efforts to combat the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate</a> emergency.<br></p><p>Boeve's statement came in response to allegations from the current state attorney general's office Friday that the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels" target="_self">fossil fuel</a> giant is attempting to intimidate third-party witnesses by demanding they disclose all contact they have had with various experts and environmental groups, including 350.org.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">ExxonMobil is after us again. <a href="https://twitter.com/NewYorkStateAG?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NewYorkStateAG</a> is currently suing them for fraud.<br><br>Now, ExxonMobil is attempting to intimidate witnesses from testifying by making them disclose all contact they’ve had with 350. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/exxonknew?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#exxonknew</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/MakeThemPay?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#MakeThemPay</a><a href="https://t.co/Artfvfev8z">https://t.co/Artfvfev8z</a></p>— 350 dot org (@350) <a href="https://twitter.com/350/status/1159477723909230593?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 8, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>InsideClimate News<em> </em>— which exposed ExxonMobil's decades of climate deception with a damning investigative series in 2015 — <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/06082019/exxon-climate-fraud-investigation-witness-pressure-investors-new-york-attorney-general?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social" target="_blank">reported</a> on the allegations Tuesday:</p><blockquote>New <a href="https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=weCXFZGO0IpZFl9K7eGbPw==&system=prod" target="_blank">court filings</a> reveal that Exxon sent letters to a group of investment advisers and shareholder activists who prosecutors want to put on the stand, informing them they will be subject to subpoenas from the company seeking documents relevant to the case if they choose to testify.<br>Because of their roles investing in and engaging with Exxon over climate change, these witnesses' testimony could prove critical to the state's case.<br>With opening statements scheduled to begin Oct. 23, a lawyer in New York Attorney General Letitia James's office <a href="https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=weCXFZGO0IpZFl9K7eGbPw==&system=prod" target="_blank">wrote</a> that the request would "impose disproportionate burdens on these witnesses in a transparent attempt to discourage them from testifying voluntarily, and threatening to upend the trial schedule."<br>The attorney general's office has asked Justice Barry Ostrager of New York Supreme Court to order Exxon to halt its requests for documents.<br></blockquote><p>Aaron Caplan, a law professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles and expert in legal ethics, told the outlet that Exxon's letter "tiptoes right up to the line of impropriety ... And whether it crosses that line is up to interpretation."</p><p>Climate Liability News, which also <a href="https://www.climateliabilitynews.org/2019/08/06/exxon-climate-fraud-new-york-attorney-general/" target="_blank">reported</a> on the filings from James's office Tuesday, spoke to one expert who characterized Exxon's move as part of a broader legal strategy.</p><blockquote>Yale law professor Douglas A. Kysar, who is not involved in the suit, said the <a href="https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/fbem/DocumentDisplayServlet?documentId=nOHJZgKfTFEYoTuekGjozg==&system=prod" target="_blank">document request</a> feeds into Exxon's narrative of an "anti-carbon conspiracy" involving liberal academics, foundations, non-governmental organizations, and plaintiffs' lawyers. The request includes "all communications concerning ExxonMobil between you and Matthew Pawa, Peter Frumhoff, Naomi Oreskes, Geoffrey Supran, the Rockefeller Family Foundation, Sharon Eubanks, Hagens Berman Sobol Shapiro LLP, Richard Heede, Sher Edling, LLP, 350.org, or the Union of Concerned Scientists."<br>"The third party witnesses won't necessarily take this request literally as a threat by Exxon — but they will have to consider the vast expense and inconvenience that would follow from being dragged into the 'anti-carbon conspiracy' narrative," Kysar said.<br></blockquote><p>"The line between 'normal legal maneuvering' and 'intimidation-style tactics' is a fine one that is almost always pushed by litigants in high-stakes battles like this one," added Kysar. "Still, the timing and the breadth of the document request by Exxon's lawyers raises even my cynical eyebrows."</p><p>350.org's Boeve wrote in an email to supporters Thursday that it is "clear" that "ExxonMobil executives are scared of the power of our movement and the strength of our numbers."</p><p>"This could be the greatest case of corporate fraud in history," she noted. "This lawsuit is a huge opportunity to set a precedent around the world for holding fossil fuel executives accountable and making them pay for a just transition to a 100 percent <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/renewable-energy/" rel="noopener noreferrer">renewable energy</a> economy."</p><p>In her statement, Boeve thanked James "for her vigilance in standing up for our communities" and vowed that Exxon's legal maneuvers won't deter the movement to make polluters pay for fueling the global climate emergency.</p><p>"As communities bear the costs of Exxon's lies, millions of people led by youth, frontline communities, workers, and more are mobilizing towards the September 20 climate strikes to build a world that works for all of us," said Boeve. "Together, all of us will hold accountable fossil fuel executives most responsible for the climate crisis, and make them pay for their climate destruction."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"415 PPM: We Are All Part of Exxon’s Uncharted Climate Experiment Now" via <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EcoWatch</a>: <a href="https://t.co/UtSZk1Iu81">https://t.co/UtSZk1Iu81</a></p>— Michael E. Mann (@MichaelEMann) <a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/status/1129036771772252160?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 16, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/08/08/we-wont-be-intimidated-declare-campaigners-after-exxonmobil-accused-pressuring" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>
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ice water with recycled straws
Photo by abillionveg on Unsplash
There's no shortage of CBD products on the market today, especially when it comes to CBD oils. These tinctures are the most popular way to take CBD, but there is so much variety amongst CBD oils it can be hard to know which one is the right choice for you. Among the different flavor options, CBD strengths, and types of hemp extracts (like full-spectrum CBD oil vs CBD isolate), there is another potential differentiator when it comes to CBD oil: water solubility.
<h2>What is Water Soluble CBD?</h2><p>Cannabidiol (CBD for short) is a well-known cannabinoid found within cannabis plants that is widely used as a wellness supplement in oil form.</p><p>Water soluble CBD is an up-and-coming product that exists primarily to simplify the process of adding CBD oil to beverages since it mixes easily with liquids. Traditional CBD oil tinctures don't blend as well into liquid drinks because the oil is less dense than water and separates easily. However, water soluble CBD oil may also provide other advantages through its potential enhancement of bioavailability.</p><p>You see in order to make water soluble CBD oil, the Cannabidiol molecules must be transformed into "nanoparticles." These tiny CBD particles are "nano-emulsified" and might be easier for the body to absorb due to their smaller size. This is a common process that has been used in pharmaceutical medicine for years, and the technology may prove to be beneficial in the CBD industry as well.</p><p>However, water soluble CBD can be harder to come by since it involves a more intense production process in order to create these nanoparticles of CBD. Fortunately I've had the benefit of trying hundreds of CBD oil products, some of which are water soluble, and below are my top three recommendations based on several factors including price, hemp source, customer service and reviews, as well as my own experience after trying these products.</p><h2>Best Water Soluble CBD Products</h2>
<h2>Is Water Soluble CBD Better Than CBD Oil?</h2><p>Due to the ease of absorption for nano CBD, the effects of water soluble CBD oil may be much more effective than regular CBD hemp oil. Because of this, water soluble CBD is making headway as the next big thing in the hemp market, but not everyone is convinced of its efficacy.</p><h2>Risks and Benefits of Water Soluble CBD</h2><p>While plenty of brands tout the enhanced effects of water soluble CBD, it's unclear how exactly how these nanoparticles react within the body. Additionally, it's also unknown whether there is any advantages to using nano CBD (or water soluble CBD oil) when compared to traditional CBD oils.</p><p>With that being said, water soluble CBD is likely to have many of the same benefits as CBD oil, including anxiety reduction, pain relief, and improvements in sleep. Water soluble CBD may also prove to be more cost effective if its bioavailability is truly greater than traditional CBD tinctures, although more research is needed to validate this assumption.</p><h2>Is Water Soluble CBD Right for You?</h2><p>Water soluble CBD oils and powders are great options for people who prefer to get their daily dose of CBD without taking an oily dropper sublingually (below their tongue), or eat an infused CBD edible that tastes like earthy hemp. These water soluble products can easily be added into any food or beverage for a discreet and easy way to ingest CBD. Not to mention, they present little to no side effects, and are considered generally safe to consume.</p>
HOLISTIK Stress
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2NzE3Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1OTg5OTkxM30.SsHX2Wj9Gg2cbit_rghGcy4jBQil-Zi-8ud4GU6KI7s/img.png?width=980" id="555ac" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8717dccb7529d642bc22c48215e93f49" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>HOLISTIK is a member of the <a href="https://www.holistikwellness.com/blogs/news/making-a-positive-impact-together-with-impact-collective" target="_blank">IMPACT COLLECTIVE</a>, a group of forward-thinking brands committed to making an immediate and positive environmental impact. For every HOLISTIK STIK sold, the brand will pull one plastic bottle out of the ocean. We like supporting a brand that thinks about their place in the world. </p><p>We also like their CBD products. A standout is their stress relief STIK. They are blended with lemon balm extract to promote relaxation and focus. You mix them in your drink of choice, feel better, and do a tiny bit to help the sea. </p>
$39.99
Liweli Super Lemon 20-Pack
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2NzIzOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzY3MDcwN30.Zdryzz73N3ViVXJCMZPt9c-ZaIQatZtsOIb_T-_jt2g/img.jpg?width=980" id="5b343" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="552717389a75940908a2efc4b569d692" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>Liweli water soluble CBD packets make getting a regular dose of CBD simple and convenient. You can keep these lemon-flavored pouches in your purse or backpack and add them to your drink of choice. They dissolve well, which is key for a product like this, and taste nice. Liweli is a best bet for anyone on-the-go. </p>
$49.99
CBDistillery CBDelicious Powder
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg2NzIwOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDY0Mzg1OH0.HYq74_mRfh-WzVZOazd3kghZcz2IwDYpOIbYOgIeR4k/img.jpg?width=980" id="69852" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a2883e054f8e6af6467e48463d26d2b7" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>If you're not an "oil" person, there's always the option of a CBD powder. CBDistillery has several different options to choose from, including isolate, broad spectrum, and full spectrum water soluble CBD powders that can easily be added into foods or drinks to help you get a dose of CBD at anytime.</p>
$28
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Adrian V. Floyd / CC BY 2.0
By Karen Perry Stillerman
What's for breakfast? Maybe it's a bagel and cream cheese, or toast and coffee, or eggs (or not). For millions of Americans, though, cereal is a breakfast mainstay. There's a mind-boggling array of ready-to-eat cereal brands on offer, and everyone has their favorites.
<p>But what really goes into your cereal of choice? What impact does that have on the planet? What can cereal-makers — and those of us who buy their products — do to lessen that impact? These are questions UCS asked in a <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/food-agriculture/champions-of-breakfast" target="_blank">new report</a>, <em>Champions of Breakfast: How Cereal-Makers Can Help Save Our Soil, Support Farmers, and Take a Bite out of Climate Change</em>.</p><p>Breakfast cereal is mostly grain … and in many cases, a whole lot of sugar, but that's <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/deborah-bailin/5-steps-to-decode-a-cereal-box-or-where-hidden-added-sugar-lies-589" target="_blank">another topic</a>. For this report, we looked at some of the top-selling cereal brands, the particular grains that go into them, the way most of those grains are grown now and the alternative ways these could be grown if farmers had different incentives. Lead author Marcia DeLonge summarizes our number-crunching (see what I did there?) and the top takeaways <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/marcia-delonge/a-spoonful-of-science-in-your-surprisingly-powerful-cereal-bowl" target="_blank">here</a>.</p><p>But what does it all mean for conscientious consumers who also happen to love cereal?</p><ul><li><strong>Your favorite flakes aren't always so <em>g-r-r-r-reat</em> for farmers and the environment.</strong> Many popular breakfast cereals have corn as their main ingredient. Not just the eponymous cornflakes (both plain and <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/188737/top-ready-to-eat-cereal-brands-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank">top-selling Frosted Flakes</a>), Corn Chex and Corn Pops, but also such brands as Froot Loops, Kix and Trix. While most of it doesn't end up in your cereal, U.S. farmers grow a lot of corn: in 2017, more than 89 million acres worth, an area larger than the state of New Mexico. Most of that corn is grown in environmentally damaging ways. Much of the <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2019/06/20/nitrates-iowas-drinking-water-may-tied-cancer-study-says/1487951001/" target="_blank">nitrate in Iowa's drinking water</a> is due to corn. <a href="https://www.ocj.com/2019/07/large-algae-bloom-in-lake-erie-predicted-for-2019/" target="_blank">Toxic algae in Lake Erie</a> is largely due to corn. Coastal "<a href="https://www.penncapital-star.com/commentary/how-your-diet-may-be-contributing-to-dead-zones-in-lake-erie-and-the-chesapeake-bay-analysis/" target="_blank">dead zones</a>" — especially the one in the Gulf of Mexico that is <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-forecasts-very-large-dead-zone-for-gulf-of-mexico" target="_blank">forecast to be the size of Massachusetts</a> this summer — are largely due to corn. While it wasn't part of our analysis, a <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2019/04/01/708818581/growing-corn-is-a-major-contributor-to-air-pollution-study-finds" target="_blank">recent study</a> revealed that corn is also a major source of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/air-pollution" target="_self">air pollution</a>. Today's dominant corn production system damages our <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/food/" target="_self">soil</a>, pollutes our <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/water" target="_self">water</a>, releases heat-trapping gases and misses the opportunity to store carbon in the soil. And lately it <a href="https://www.dailyyonder.com/farmings-economic-troubles-go-much-deeper-floodwaters/2019/07/15/32803/" target="_blank">isn't working out so well for farmers</a>, either. In other words, there's a lot of room for improvement.</li></ul><ul><li><strong>Those little O's could have big impact.</strong> But maybe you're like <a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/mouth-tiny-cheerios-rFszYhpBiR0Xu" target="_blank">this guy</a>, and Cheerios are your thing. Those O's, whether plain or honey-nutted, are mostly whole oats; other oat-based cereals include Honey Bunches of Oats and Lucky Charms. U.S. farmers used to grow a lot of oats, but they've been replaced by other crops (see "corn," above). Now, oats are seen as a key to diversifying Corn Belt landscapes. A long-running <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30608148" target="_blank">Iowa State University study</a> has shown that rotating oats and other crops with corn and soybeans can dramatically reduce soil erosion and pollutant runoff while maintaining farmer profits.</li></ul><ul><li><strong>What about wheat?</strong> Our analysis didn't include a scenario for wheat cereals like Wheaties, Raisin Bran, Cinnamon Toast Crunch or my personal favorite, the <a href="https://www.grapenuts.com/our-story/" target="_blank">oddly-named</a> Grape-Nuts (which contain neither grapes nor nuts, but rather wheat and barley). Like corn, wheat is grown across large swaths of the country, with similar effects on the soil. But there are soil-health building practices available to these farmers, too. For example, Montana farmers have found that crop rotations that include lentils — a legume requiring little moisture — have helped build soil health and increase farm resilience in that arid region, with <a href="https://www.montana.edu/news/15554/msu-scientists-find-higher-economic-returns-when-grain-growers-use-pulse-crops-instead-of-fallow" target="_blank">added economic benefits</a>.</li></ul>
<h3>Consumers have power in the cereal aisle … but big companies have more.</h3><p>As UCS showed with this <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/food-agriculture/supermarket" target="_blank">interactive feature</a> earlier this year, we have choices when we go to the supermarket (though <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/food_and_agriculture/solutions/strengthen-healthy-farm-policy/the-farm-bill.html" target="_blank">public policies</a> and corporate actions largely create and prop up those choices). To improve the impact of your cereal habit, the best option right now is probably to choose an <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/organic" target="_self">organic</a> brand. Grains grown organically avoid a lot of environmental damage, and while farmers can pursue <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sustainability" target="_self">sustainable</a> practices without being certified organic, the USDA organic label is currently the best signal to consumers that packaged food ingredients are <a href="https://www.ams.usda.gov/sites/default/files/media/Organic%20Practices%20Factsheet.pdf" target="_blank">grown in better ways</a>.</p><p>Then there's oatmeal. I wrote about <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/karen-perry-stillerman/how-oats-could-save-iowas-farmers-and-fight-pollution" target="_blank">its power</a> a couple of years ago, and our new report bears out that sustainably grown whole oats have even more soil-saving, pollution-preventing potential than formulated oat-based cereals, simply because there are more oats per serving. (Although personally, I won't return to my favorite organic oatmeal until <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/erika-spanger-siegfried/this-weekends-heatwave-is-the-future-of-extreme-heat-3-things-you-should-know-and-do" target="_blank">this heat</a> breaks in the fall.)</p><p>Beyond that, clearly sustainable cereal choices are pretty limited. The biggest cereal companies could take steps to change this, however. There are four of them, and you know their names: General Mills, Kellogg Company, Post Consumer Brands and Quaker Oats (a division of PepsiCo). Together, these companies account for 86 percent of the $8.5 billion U.S. breakfast cereal market; many of their brands are household names, and they make more than just cereal. These companies have begun to take steps to improve the sourcing of their ingredients (check out some of their initiatives <a href="https://www.generalmills.com/en/Responsibility/Overview" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://crreport.kelloggcompany.com/" target="_blank">here</a>), but there's plenty of opportunity to do more. By investing in more supply chain improvements, defining and improving sustainability standards and raising consumer awareness, these companies can play a major role in expanding opportunities for sustainable U.S. grain farmers, setting the wheels in motion for larger-scale market shifts.</p><p>In the heart of corn country, the <a href="https://practicalfarmers.org/" target="_blank">Practical Farmers of Iowa</a> (PFI) are ready to work with these companies. They've been coaching farmers to grow cover crops and incorporate oats and other crops into rotations. But PepsiCo's Quaker Oats, which has a large plant in Iowa, <a href="https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/money/agriculture/2017/10/05/iowa-has-worlds-largest-cereal-plant-but-states-farmers-lack-market-oats/690998001/" target="_blank">reportedly doesn't buy oats from there</a>. And while General Mills also uses a lot of oats, is based in the Midwest and has <a href="https://www.agriculture.com/news/crops/general-mills-aims-to-drive-regenerative-agriculture-on-1-million-acres-by-2030" target="_blank">committed</a> to shifting a million acres of farmland to more <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/regenerative-agriculture" target="_self">regenerative</a> practices by 2030, the company hasn't — so far —committed to buying oats from diversified farms close to home. And it's precisely this <a href="https://wcfcourier.com/business/local/iowa-farmers-lack-market-for-oats-despite-large-cereal-plant/article_c876ea36-a51d-556b-9a6a-f7c8263f229a.html" target="_blank">lack of market certainty</a> that is holding Iowa farmers back, according to PFI.</p><p>It's clear the big cereal companies can do more. And with our new report in hand, my colleagues and I will be thinking about how organizations like UCS — and all of us as eaters — can help make that happen.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Breakfast?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Breakfast</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Cereals?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Cereals</a>: Healthy or Unhealthy? <a href="https://t.co/5IkCiPd43s">https://t.co/5IkCiPd43s</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Healthline?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Healthline</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/Healthy_Child?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Healthy_Child</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1110300404338823170?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 25, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Karen Perry Stillerman is a senior communication strategist and senior analyst in the Food & Environment Program at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Will the U.S. Be a Dystopian Hellscape in 2100 if Emissions Keep Rising?
22 July 2019
Insights + Opinion
Night long exposure photograph of wildifires in Santa Clarita, California. FrozenShutter / E+ / Getty Images
By Kristy Dahl
Last week, UCS released Killer Heat, a report analyzing how the frequency of days with a dangerously hot heat index — the combination of temperature and humidity the National Weather Service calls the "feels like" temperature — will change in response to the global emissions choices we make in the coming decades.
<p>When I'm deep in an analysis, like the one for <em>Killer Heat</em> and its companion peer-reviewed <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab27cf" target="_blank">article</a>, I often have trouble sleeping. I lie awake in the middle of the night trying to get bits of troublesome computer code to work in my head or thinking through all of the boxes that need to be checked before we start writing the report. The <em>Killer Heat</em> analysis kept me awake for an entirely different reason: the results terrified me.</p>
<h3>An Unrecognizably Hot Future</h3><p>To get a sense of why, project yourself, for a moment, into the future: It's late in the century, sometime between 2070 and 2099. We've stayed on our current global carbon emissions path, and the rise in emissions has continued to outpace our efforts to cut them. Kids who were in elementary school in 2019 are retiring, and this is their United States:</p><ul><li>For the equivalent of a week or more each year, about 120 million people across the country are exposed to conditions so hot, the heat index (or "feels like" temperature) surpasses the limits of the National Weather Service's heat index charts. The upper limit of the heat index scale falls at or above 127°F, depending on temperature and humidity. In other words, they step outside and are hit with a wall of heat that feels upwards of 130°F. How far upwards? That we don't know.</li><li>In 47 of the lower 48 states, these "off-the-charts" conditions occur in at least one county at least once a year. When this happens, the National Weather Service cannot reliably calculate the heat index. Historically, "off-the-charts" conditions have only occurred in the Sonoran Desert region, along the California-Arizona border, and only for a few days each year.</li></ul>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTk2NDMzMy9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MzM5MTE0MX0.2ukLCiSm2zSXYYopoWYUyLUtlXelU9PPEUED0DWBCfc/img.png?width=980" id="220a9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7363ffe030de62576148c9e03749148c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p><em>By late century, with no action to reduce emissions, more than 60% of the U.S. would experience at least one "off-the-charts" day in an average year. These conditions are so hot they exceed the National Weather Service's heat index scale. They historically have affected less than 1% of the U.S. in an average year.</em></p>
<ul><li>The number of days per year that feel like 105°F or hotter is eight times higher than it has been historically. Every major city in Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa — and a total of more than 290 populous U.S. cities (greater than 50,000 people) — swelters for the equivalent of a month of such conditions in an average year. [Map showing cities with 30+ days of 105+ conditions (late century, no action)]</li><li>Every major city in Michigan experiences 30 or more days per year with a heat index above 100°F, except Muskegon, which averages 29. (Cities in Wisconsin and Minnesota are no better off.)</li><li>Residents of Tampa, Florida, Laredo, Texas, and 15 more large cities in Florida and Texas endure 150 days or more per year with a heat index above 100°F.</li></ul>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTk2NDM1NS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2OTY3MDE2OH0.u0PVLeVfVVk_68_LD9PaycKqtr48c0vORNzDqH5T8Ic/img.png?width=980" id="9d8d1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="cc1c57b02f921375e110e4f8b30b824c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p><em>With no action to reduce emissions, by late century large swaths of the Sunbelt would experience more than 100 days per year with a heat index above 100 degrees Fahrenheit.</em></p>
<ul><li>Famously cool places average 30 days or more with a heat index above 90°F: Seattle, Washington (30); Portland, Maine (48); Portland, Oregon (53). (In Seattle, <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/seattle-is-least-air-conditioned-metro-area-in-the-u-s-census-data-show-so-how-do-locals-keep-cool/" target="_blank">two-thirds of homes currently lack air-conditioning</a>.)</li><li>In more than 80 counties across Texas and Florida, in an average year, the heat index is above 90°F for half the year (180 days). In broad strokes, that means that spring is very hot, fall is very hot, and summer can be downright deadly.</li></ul><p>It's an unfathomably hot future, and it's the one we're on track to hand off to our children and grandchildren. Where do we encourage our children to settle down in this world? Will it be safe for their children play outside in the summer? And what do we tell Gen Z <em>today</em> when they strike and march and plead with us to change course?</p>
<h3>Choosing a Safer Future</h3><p>As my coauthors and I began to dig more deeply into our results, a second potential future came into clearer focus: In this future, rapid, aggressive action to reduce global emissions has limited global warming to 2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. These ambitious actions still lead to a future in which the number of days with a dangerously high heat index above 105°F is nearly four times what it is today, and 85 of the bigger U.S. cities would endure a month or more of such conditions.</p><p>Clearly, we need to be aiming for even greater, even faster cuts to our emissions. Yet limiting future warming to 2°C would yield a future far more recognizable to today's children than the one we're recklessly barreling toward, in which 290 cities suffer under such heat.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTk2NDM3NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2OTE1MDI2OH0.CZ0pXbDBoHZdNp8bTqIxAZvFl9gUQLN9ju1lmGfuuSc/img.png?width=980" id="a7ae4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b709f18ca20f5eb3b29ab772e0583d0a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p><em></em><em>Rapidly and aggressively reducing emissions would limit the number of cities that would experience 30 days or more per year with a heat index above 105 degrees Fahrenheit.</em></p>
<p>That's the future I have to focus on so I can sleep at night. Ensuring this safer future will require us to act on two major fronts: reducing emissions swiftly so that we can achieve net-zero carbon emissions by midcentury and limit future <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" rel="noopener noreferrer">global warming</a>; and building our resilience to <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme heat</a> through a suite of common sense measures that include enacting a national heat safety standard for outdoor workers and ensuring that communities have heat warning systems in place that draw on the best available public health information.</p><p>This future may be the next-best thing to the one we'd ideally hand off to our children, but it's a hell of a lot better than the one we're currently heading toward. The best time to boldly begin pursuing this safer future was 20 years ago. The next-best time is now.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">550,000 Acres on Fire in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Alaska?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Alaska</a> in Latest Sign of the Climate Crisis <a href="https://t.co/07WV5bLRdp">https://t.co/07WV5bLRdp</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/wildfiretoday?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@wildfiretoday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/greenpeaceusa?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@greenpeaceusa</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1149785579418279936?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 12, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><span></span><em>Kristina Dahl is a climate scientist with the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Calls for Radical Climate Action Grow Louder as NOAA Reports Last Month Was Hottest June Ever Recorded
19 July 2019
Climate
U.S. government scientists concluded in a new report that last month was the hottest June on record. Angelo Juan Ramos / Flickr
By Jessica Corbett
As meteorologists warned Thursday that temperatures above 100°F are expected to impact two-thirds of the country this weekend, U.S. government scientists revealed that last month was the hottest June ever recorded — bolstering calls for radical global action on the climate emergency.
<p>The revelation came in a new monthly climate <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201906" target="_blank">report</a> from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Scientists at the agency's National Centers for Environmental Information <a href="https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201906" target="_blank">found</a> that "the global land and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans">ocean</a> surface temperature departure from average for June 2019 was the highest for the month of June in the 140-year NOAA global temperature dataset record, which dates back to 1880."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">JUST IN: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/June?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#June</a> 2019 was the warmest June on record for globe, says <a href="https://twitter.com/NOAA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NOAA</a> National Centers for Environmental Information. Record dates to 1880. <a href="https://t.co/sEG5ZD9SnI">https://t.co/sEG5ZD9SnI</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/NOAA?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NOAA</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StateOfClimate?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StateOfClimate</a> <a href="https://t.co/UI0NYQb4Qs">pic.twitter.com/UI0NYQb4Qs</a></p>— NOAA NCEI Climate (@NOAANCEIclimate) <a href="https://twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate/status/1151869592786153472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>Meteorologist Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground, <a href="https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/June-2019-Earths-Hottest-June-Record" target="_blank">explained</a> that "the global heat in June is especially impressive and significant given that only a weak (and weakening) El Niño event was in place. As human-produced greenhouse gases continue to heat up our planet, most global heat records are set during El Niño periods, because the warm waters that spread upward and eastward across the surface of the tropical Pacific during El Niño transfer heat from the ocean to the atmosphere."</p><p>According to NOAA, "Regionally, South America, Europe, Africa, the Hawaiian region, and the Gulf of Mexico had their warmest June in the 110-year record." Central and Eastern Europe, North-Central Russia, northeastern Canada and southern parts of South America endured the most notable departures from average June temperatures.</p><p>And, as Masters noted, that high heat came with consequences:</p><blockquote>Three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the June 2019 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker <a href="http://catastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/Pages/Home.aspx" target="_blank">Aon</a>: a severe weather outbreak in Europe ($1.1 billion), flooding in China ($9+ billion, including losses up until July 16), and a drought in India ($1.75 billion). In addition, severe weather outbreaks in the U.S. in late May and mid-March accumulated more than $1 billion in losses by the end of June, bringing the 2019 tally of billion-dollar weather disasters to 14.</blockquote><p>Five of the disasters documented by Aon were in the United States. NOAA, in the climate anomalies and events section of its report, noted that higher than average rainfall across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and East Coast contributed to <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/06/04/extreme-flooding-across-midwest-exactly-line-scientific-warnings-climate-crisis" target="_blank">destructive flooding</a> in those areas. Experts warn that as human behaviors continue to warm the planet, <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/07/staggering-un-warning-climate-crisis-disasters-now-occur-weekly-provokes-calls" target="_blank">extreme weather events</a> will become more intense and common.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Read a summary of global climate conditions and events in June 2019: <a href="https://t.co/bDQR49npk1">https://t.co/bDQR49npk1</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/StateOfClimate?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#StateOfClimate</a> <a href="https://t.co/rLhMbxBgyW">pic.twitter.com/rLhMbxBgyW</a></p>— NOAA NCEI Climate (@NOAANCEIclimate) <a href="https://twitter.com/NOAANCEIclimate/status/1151898693521563648?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>NOAA scientists found that January through June tied with 2017 for the second-highest average temperature ever recorded in that six-month period over the past 140 years. Though 2016 still remains the hottest first six months of the year on record, last month beat 2016's June temperature average by 0.04°F, with an average global temperature 1.71°F above the 20th century average.</p><p>Jonathan Erdman, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel, <a href="https://weather.com/news/climate/news/2019-07-18-june-2019-earths-warmest" target="_blank">wrote</a> Thursday that although the increases may seem small, "ultimately, what's most important is not whether a given month is a fraction of a degree warmer or colder; rather, it's the overall trend, which continues its <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.png" target="_blank">upward climb since the late 1970s</a>."</p><p>In response to NOAA's report, climate scientist Phil Duffy, president and executive director of Woods Hole Research Center, <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL2N24I1FQ" target="_blank">told</a> Reuters that "action is urgently needed at the world, federal, state, and local levels to rapidly cut fossil fuel pollution and to protect and rebuild naturally stored carbon."</p><p>The NOAA report, as Erdman noted, echoes conclusions about June temperatures by researchers at NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the Japan Meteorological Agency and Europe's <a href="https://climate.copernicus.eu/surface-air-temperature-june-2019" target="_blank">Copernicus Climate Change Service</a> (C3S).</p><p>Reacting to the C3S report earlier this month, the environmental advocacy group 350.org <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/03/after-data-shows-last-month-was-hottest-june-record-sanders-says-maybe-now-time" target="_blank">declared</a>, "We need to act like this is the climate emergency it is."</p><p>The findings about June come on the heels of <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/16/hotter-future-thats-hard-imagine-super-charged-climate-crisis-new-study-warns-killer" target="_blank">new research</a> from the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) that shows without urgent global action to curb planet-heating human activities, "the number of days per year when the heat index — or 'feels like' temperature — exceeds 100°F would more than double from historical levels to an average of 36 across the country by midcentury and increase four-fold to an average of 54 by late century."</p><p>The USC report warned that the global community must pursue ambitious climate action "if we wish to spare people in the United States and around the world the mortal dangers of extreme and relentless heat."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Only one in eight of the world's most-polluting companies are on track to meet their <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/climate?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#climate</a> goals <a href="https://t.co/cvOXW2aMxI">https://t.co/cvOXW2aMxI</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/DeSmogBlog?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@DeSmogBlog</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1150510438335037441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 14, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/07/18/noaas-finding-last-month-was-hottest-june-ever-recorded-bolsters-calls-radical?cd-origin=rss" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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tommaso79 / iStock / Getty Images Plus
By Rachel Licker
As a new mom, I've had to think about heat safety in many new ways since pregnant women and young children are among the most vulnerable to extreme heat.
<p><br/></p>
<p>While I was pregnant, my neighborhood lost power for a few days during an excruciating heat wave as a result of a power surge. The heat index reached 108°F and to keep safe, I spent time in cooled buildings and ran an extension cord from a neighbor with electricity through my mail slot to power a fan.</p><p>In May, I had to buy a fan for my baby's stroller when the heat index neared 100°F. And I've had to spend many days indoors as, so far, 21 days this year have been at least 90°F in the District of Columbia.</p><p>So where does a parent — or an outdoor worker, a student, a retiree, or any U.S. resident for that matter — turn to figure out how to keep safe in the face of extreme heat?</p>
<p>These are five resources that can help you and your loved ones stay safe during an extreme heat event. There are others available, some of which you can find by way of these resources. You can also help keep others in your community safe, for example by <a href="https://createthegood.org/toolkit/help-someone-stay-cool-during-extreme-heat" target="_blank">checking in on</a> elderly neighbors or other people you know who are particularly vulnerable to heat.</p><ol><li><em>Is there an active heat alert?</em> An important step in staying safe is to know what conditions are like — and are forecast to be like — outside. All U.S. residents can turn to <a href="https://www.weather.gov/" target="_blank">weather.gov</a> — the National Weather Service's homepage — to find out whether there are any active heat alerts. The National Weather Service maintains a list of phone apps, websites and other sources of weather alerts <a href="https://www.weather.gov/subscribe/" target="_blank">here</a>. Local weather forecasters will also provide this information and it is important to follow their advice — heat is currently one of the top <a href="https://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/hazstats.shtml" target="_blank">weather-related causes of death</a> in the U.S., and there is a lot that people can do to prevent heat-related illness.</li><li><em>Learn the signs of heat-related illness. </em>The U.S. Centers for Disease Control (CDC) maintains <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/warning.html" target="_blank">this</a> helpful guide to heat-related illness signs and symptoms, and what to do if you exhibit them.</li><li><em>What to do to stay safe. </em>The <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat" target="_blank">Heat Safety Tips and Resources</a> website from the National Weather Service is chock-full of resources on how to stay safe during an extreme heat event. There is information specific to particular segments of the U.S. population, including parents, outdoor workers, Spanish speakers and pet owners. Similarly, the CDC also maintains <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/features/extremeheat/index.html" target="_blank">this</a> helpful website that has information for many other groups, including older adults, low-income households, those with diabetes and athletes. It is important to know about the unique vulnerability of yourself and any dependents you might have.</li><li><em>Find your closest cooling center and other local resources — <a href="http://www.211.org/" target="_blank">call 211</a>.</em> Many cities and communities have cooling centers in places such as libraries, town government buildings, senior centers or shopping centers that residents can visit for respite from the heat. The federal government set up 211 as a line that people can call to get connected with expert help. Some states and communities, including <a href="https://www.health.ny.gov/environmental/weather/cooling/" target="_blank">New York</a>, have this information online. Calling one's town government, including a police station, can also help track down this information.</li><li><em>What's your plan?</em> It is important to have a plan in place on how you and any dependents will stay safe should a heat wave hit. <a href="https://www.ready.gov/heat" target="_blank">Ready.gov</a> provides suggestions on how to prepare.</li></ol>
<p>Last but not least, there are measures that need to be taken now by our federal and state governments, as well as our communities, to reduce the threat of extreme heat in the future.</p><p>As our most recent report, <a href="http://www.ucsusa.org/killer-heat" target="_blank">Killer Heat</a>, shows, this threat is projected to worsen dramatically in the next few decades for nearly all U.S. residents if we do not act on <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" rel="noopener noreferrer">global warming</a>. These measures need to include efforts to both reduce heat-trapping emissions to limit the frequency and severity of extreme heat and build resilience to heat so that when an extreme heat event hits, communities are prepared.</p><p>While we can't prevent some increases in extreme heat, we can ensure that future generations will, at the very least, have the tools necessary to cope and the ability to stay safe.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Do You Remember Normal <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Weather?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Weather</a>? Scientists Say Most of Us Don't <a href="https://t.co/nalC5uCNQx">https://t.co/nalC5uCNQx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/350?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@350</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateNexus</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1100968918531928064?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 28, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Rachel Licker is a senior climate scientist with the Climate & Energy Program at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
- The Health Risks of Our Sweltering Summers - EcoWatch ›
- Extreme Heat Is Killing Americans While Years of Government Neglect Increases the Danger - EcoWatch ›
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Maximum heat indices expected in the continental U.S. on Saturday July 20. NOAA WPC
A dangerous heat wave is expected to boil much of the Central and Eastern U.S. beginning Wednesday, The Washington Post reported.
<p>Major cities including Chicago, St. Louis, Washington DC, Nashville, Kansas City, Missouri, Philadelphia and New York could see temperatures soar between 95 and 100 degrees Fahrenheit for at least three days. It will be humid too, with dew points (a measurement of air moisture) more than 70 degrees. </p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="b200e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="40YHE61563379095"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1151269918664536064" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A scorching #heat wave will consume about two-thirds of the country mid to late week into the weekend. About a tota… https://t.co/zbjBJ4WSOl</div> — National Weather Service (@National Weather Service)<a href="https://twitter.com/NWS/statuses/1151269918664536064">1563319112.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>"The prolonged duration of the heat and humidity will potentially become dangerous to those most vulnerable," the National Weather Service (NWS) warned.<br></p><p>The forecast comes as the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a> (UCS) <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/killer-heat-report-2639208305.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">released a report</a> warning that the number of extreme heat days are set to increase over the next few decades if we do not act now to mitigate the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" rel="noopener" target="_blank">climate crisis</a>. The country could get so hot that some days would be "off the charts" of the heat index, the combination of heat and humidity that determines what the weather "feels like."</p><p>The index high-point, currently set at 127 degrees Fahrenheit, is now only exceeded in the Sonoran Desert between California and Arizona, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/climate-change-millions-people-u-s-extreme-heat-1449512" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">according to Newsweek</a>.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="ed8dd" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="FW4MLX1563379095"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1151114378818805766" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">According to our newest report, on average nationally, days with a “feels like” temperature above 90° F will double… https://t.co/5YR0Xa16dV</div> — Union of Concerned Scientists (@Union of Concerned Scientists)<a href="https://twitter.com/UCSUSA/statuses/1151114378818805766">1563282029.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>"Our analysis shows a hotter future that's hard to imagine today," UCS senior climate scientist Kristina Dahl said in a statement reported by Newsweek.<br></p><p>By the middle of the century, there will be an average of 36 days when the heat index surpasses 100 degrees and 24 days when it rises above 105. By the end of the century, those numbers will rise to 54 and 40 respectively.</p><p>Parts of the U.S. are forecast to get a taste of that future in the coming days.</p><p>"Friday will be suffocating across much of the eastern U.S. with the heat index 100 degrees to 110 degrees from the Plains to the Great Lakes and the Middle-Atlantic to NYC," BAM Weather meteorologist Ryan Maue tweeted, as <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/07/16/heat-wave-scorching-dangerous-heat-bake-central-eastern-us/1743374001/" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">USA Today reported</a>.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="ccbeb" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9OYR9J1563379095"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1151119652594077696" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Friday will be suffocating across much of the Eastern U.S. with heat index 100°-110°F 🌡️from the Plains to Great La… https://t.co/9krgsz8QGH</div> — Ryan (@Ryan)<a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/statuses/1151119652594077696">1563283286.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Around 50 million people were living in areas where some type of heat alert was in place as of Tuesday. Those places included the Plains, the Midwest and parts of the East. More warnings could be issued for other parts of the Eastern U.S. later this week. <br></p><p>There's a very specific reason why this week's heat wave is in line with predictions for how the climate crisis will impact temperature: It's likely that dozens of records will be broken for overnight low temperatures, according to the NWS. As The Washington Post explained, models project overnight lows will rise faster relative to daytime highs as the planet warms. Record-high lows present a real health risk because the body does not have a chance to cool down at night.</p><p>Heat is already the deadliest <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" rel="noreferrer" target="_blank">extreme weather</a> event in the U.S., according to The Washington Post.</p>
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Top 10 Heat-Related Terms You Need to Pay Attention to While Reading UCS’s Killer Heat Report
16 July 2019
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Eduardo Velev cools off in the spray of a fire hydrant during a heatwave on July 1, 2018 in Philadelphia. Jessica Kourkounis / Getty Images
By Adrienne L. Hollis
Because extreme heat is one of the deadliest weather hazards we currently face, Union of Concerned Scientist's Killer Heat Report for the U.S. is the most important document I have read. It is a veritable wake up call for all of us. It is timely, eye-opening, transparent and factual and it deals with the stark reality of our future if we do not make changes quickly (think yesterday). It is important to ensure that we all understand it. Here are 10 terms that really help drive home the messages in the heat report and help us understand the ramifications of inaction.
Weather vs Climate
<p>One of my four brothers <em>loves</em> to cook – and he is great at it. One day I made the mistake of calling him a cook. He quickly corrected me by saying: "Cooking is what I do, a Chef is what I am." See the difference there? It is the same with weather and climate. In <a href="https://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/news/articles/150731-remembering-herbertson.html" target="_blank">Andrew John Herbertson's</a> words: "Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get." You expect it to be hot this summer season but what you really get is a <a href="https://streamable.com/y5j8i" target="_blank">heat wave</a>.</p>Global Warming and Climate Change
<p>Global warming is a long-term increase in the Earth's annual average surface temperature, caused mainly by increased fossil fuel emissions. So — when the Earth heats up over time, it is <a href="https://streamable.com/f7v1n" target="_blank">global warming</a>. Climate change, on the other hand, refers to a change in the climate system of the Earth, including its weather patterns.</p><p>Current climate change is mostly caused by the fossil fuel emissions that increase atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. A host of changes flow from this: ocean acidification, global mean surface temperature increase (aka 'global warming'), shrinking glaciers in the Arctic, Antarctica, Greenland and mountain glaciers, sea level rise, changes in flower blooms, animal and plant distribution shifts, and changes in frequency and intensity of extreme weather events.</p><p>There should never be a time that, when the temperatures are really low, we wish for "global warming" so that the temperatures will increase — Ever. Because there will always be winters. However, the problem is that winters around the globe are getting warmer, on average — even if northern hemisphere winters have periodic extreme cold snaps in places, such as what occurs when the Arctic air blasts to lower latitudes in parts and warmer air shifts more northward at other parts with a <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2014.0170" target="_blank">wavier jet stream at times</a>.</p>Temperature and the Heat Index
<p>The heat index is slightly different from the temperature, although temperature is used to calculate it. Temperature is what we can measure in the thermometer. But the heat index is what we feel that temperature to be when we factor in relative humidity. That is why the <a href="https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat-index" target="_blank">National Weather Service calls the heat index the "feels like" temperature</a>. For example, in Mobile, Alabama where I grew up, the thermometer might register 80°F outside, but because of humidity and other factors it can feel like a temperature of <a href="https://streamable.com/edit/4t04h" target="_blank">100°F</a>!</p>The Urban Heat Island (UHI)
<p>When I was in graduate school in Tennessee, the air conditioner in my apartment did not really work well. So, I would sit directly in front of the fan — DIRECTLY. If I stuck an arm or leg outside of my "fan zone" I would immediately be assaulted by what I can only equate to the infamous <a href="https://streamable.com/wsjsv" target="_blank">'Heat Miser' from Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer</a>.</p><p>Outside of that zone, the heat showed no mercy and my body's response was first shock, then intense sweat. I think of the <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/urban-heat-island/" target="_blank">Urban Heat Island</a> in a similar way, except that there are no "fan zones" and very few mechanisms for relief from the heat for at-risk populations.</p><p>The UHI occurs because cities are much warmer than surrounding rural areas — cities resemble an "island" of heat among a broader "sea" of cooler temperatures. Concrete, glass, asphalt, and other surfaces that make up cities trap heat during the day and then release it at night, but it escapes much slower than it was trapped, so there is not much relief from the heat!</p><p>Temperatures do drop a little at night, so people can open their windows and doors or sit outside to get some relief. Can you imagine what it is like for our homeless brothers and sisters or people without adequate air conditioning, or whose electric bills are so high that they can not afford to turn on their fans or air conditioners? What about people whose work requires them to spend a lot of time outside, or children who play outside the majority of the time? Think about that…</p>Heat Cramps, Heat Exhaustion and Heat Stroke
<p>When I was growing up in Mobile, Alabama, my Mom would tell my brothers and me to be careful outside when it was hot — that we could have a "heat stroke." (She also used to say that we smelled like "the sun," whatever that meant, when we came inside after playing outdoors so I suspect that she just did not want us to get too sweaty.)</p><p>Luckily, none of us ever had serious complications from <a href="https://streamable.com/qfe4z" target="_blank">heat</a>. But prolonged exposure to extreme heat can cause <a href="https://www.osha.gov/SLTC/heatstress/heat_illnesses.html" target="_blank">heat cramps, heat exhaustion, or heat stroke</a>.</p><p>Heat cramps, caused by the loss of body salts and fluids during sweating, can be painful.</p><p>Heat exhaustion is how the body responds to loss of water and fluids from heavy sweating; symptoms include headaches, nausea, dizziness, weakness, thirst and heavy sweating.</p><p>The most serious is heat stroke, which happens when the body gets so hot it cannot regulate its core temperature. People going into a heat stroke stop sweating, so their bodies cannot get rid of the excess heat, which could cause confusion, loss of consciousness, and seizures.</p><p>Heat strokes are a serious medical emergency that can result in death. Under a changing climate, the likelihood of dangerous heat-related health risks increasing is all too real. Sadly, if my Mom were to issue that "<a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/warning.html" target="_blank">heat stroke</a>" warning under the current and future conditions, she would probably be right.</p>Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs)
<p>RCPs are future emissions scenarios used to model the choices that we can make about carbon emissions. RCP8.5 refers to a "no action" scenario where no substantial reductions in emissions are pursued through the late century. RCP4.5 is the "slow action" scenario, under which emissions start to decline around mid-century. In addition, with the "rapid action" scenario, future global warming, even by late century, is limited to 2ºC above pre-industrial temperatures. Achieving this would require rapid reductions in emissions over the next few decades.</p><p>RCPs make assumptions about how carbon emissions in the atmosphere will change in the future as a result of human activities. In other words, think of it as an "if this occurs, then this will happen" scenario for <a href="https://streamable.com/wnly7" target="_blank">global warming</a>.</p><p>The more immediate and impactful actions we take now, the greater our chances are of avoiding KILLER HEAT conditions, serious adverse health outcomes and the worst consequences of climate change — especially on our most at-risk populations.</p>From Your Site Articles
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Hurricane Florence on Sept. 12, 2018. ESA / A.Gerst, CC BY-SA 2.0
By Astrid Caldas
On May 21, the first named storm of 2019, Andrea, was recorded on the north Atlantic. This makes 2019 the fifth consecutive year that a named storm has formed before the official start of Atlantic hurricane season.
<p>Something caught my eye when I read that: the number five. That's because, according to NASA, 2018 was the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2841/2018-fourth-warmest-year-in-continued-warming-trend-according-to-nasa-noaa/" target="_blank">fourth warmest year</a> in a continued warming trend since record keeping began in the 1880's, with temperatures 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.83 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean. And with it, a string of five consecutive years have been recorded as the five warmest on record. I will say this again: the last five years have been the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">five warmest years on record</a>.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI2NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NTA2NjQ4Nn0.4GJ4mRAnLrDNkK-KCTMooN94I7tKg9faSeQcmZnoVr4/img.jpg?width=980" id="a9812" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6bfd453655e35aa55ed25da0c3e2645b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>Is climate change having an effect on hurricane season, or on hurricanes themselves? Hurricane season starts on June 1st. Let's take a look at the latest forecasts and science.</p><h3>Hurricane Forecasts and Their Messages</h3><p>On April 16, Colorado State University (CSU) released its <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf" target="_blank">hurricane outlook for the 2019 season</a>, forecasting 13 named storms with 5 of them turning into hurricanes, of which 2 would classify as major (<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php" target="_blank">categories 3 and above</a>).</p><p>On May 23, the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, part of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (<a href="http://www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA</a>) released their <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season" target="_blank">forecast</a>, predicting a "near-normal" season with 9 to 15 named storms and 4 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 being major ones. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The numbers are very similar to the ones from CSU.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI3NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NDcxNTE0Nn0.uv9JTX01Y2YwoNy2NgTmPdbCxc-IiCdGtGPhB8qOta0/img.png?width=980" id="ee3cc" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="44676743385e4821488e0f976740408b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>The odds for that near-normal season are 40%. Odds for above-normal or below-normal activity are both at 30%. But, as <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/hurricane-season-2018-begins-will-it-be-different-from-last-years" target="_blank">I mentioned last year</a>, odds are not certain predictions. They are just that: odds (see below for more on that). And the last couple of years certainly reminded us of that.</p><h3>Years to Remember – in More Than One Way</h3><p><a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/hurricane-season-2018-begins-will-it-be-different-from-last-years" target="_blank">NOAA's forecast for the 2018 season</a> also had a near-normal probability of 40%, with 35% odds of it being above normal, and 25% odds of being below-normal. It forecast 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 1 to 4 being major. <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/destructive-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end" target="_blank">What we saw</a> was a season tilted toward the higher side of the predictions — there were 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. Two of those were major, and two hurricanes — Michael and Florence, the latter not a major hurricane but a category 1 — caused <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf" target="_blank">roughly $50 billion</a> in estimated damage.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjE2OTQzOX0.6byo4KiOBCPAi7es5vjdel61IPD6B5n5xlF0y3_iMfo/img.png?width=980" id="0bfad" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e79ab2a72f1e2aa7622681f8cd7dec47" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>While the probabilistic predictions may not have raised any eyebrows, when a record four hurricanes were active at the same time, that caught my eye.</p><p>If we look further back, at <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/the-2017-hurricane-season-begins-here-are-3-alarming-things-im-watching" target="_blank">2017</a>, the probability of an above-normal season was at 45%, and below-normal activity was at 20%. The forecast called for 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 2 to 5 being major — and the reality blew the predictions: <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season-finally-ends" target="_blank">we had 10 hurricanes with 6 major ones</a>. Three of these major ones hit the U.S., and nobody will forget the string of names <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-irma">Irma</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-maria">Maria</a> anytime soon. That also caught my eye.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4NS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMjY4NTkwNH0.arlA6OO6WFh1r0i9oREG4gqcQPU1KwHjrzB1p4Oz8ow/img.png?width=980" id="b0f9e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6b2cfb61390706114deb6b7bb137253a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>However, I was not surprised when the numbers fell outside of the given range.</p><h3>Understanding the Forecast</h3><p>That is because the range in numbers given in NOAA's forecast has a <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml" target="_blank">70% probability</a>, meaning that "<em>The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years</em>." So, there you have it, in plain language, that the actual numbers for 2019 (as in any season) may be different from the ones in the forecast.</p>
<h3>What Do These Seasons Tell Us?</h3><p>Forecasts are based on probabilities calculated from <em>conditions at the time of the forecast</em>, and as such, there is ample room for conditions to change and actual facts to fall outside the probabilistic calculations, as the numbers for 2017 show. At the time of the 2018 forecast, sea surface temperatures were running below average in the area where tropical storms form, and the forecast was based on those conditions. For this year, NOAA stated that there are <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season" target="_blank">competing signals affecting the forecast</a>: an ongoing weak El Niño is expected to suppress intensity of Atlantic hurricane activity, while warmer-than-average surface waters and an enhanced African monsoon are forces that could lead to increased activity. Will these conditions change and affect hurricane activity? Probably. That is also why NOAA releases an updated forecast later in the season, usually in early August. Mind you, the updated forecast is based on the same probabilistic calculations, only using updated conditions.</p><p>Most importantly, it only takes one hurricane to hit to cause possible devastation. Nobody can tell ahead of time how many hurricanes in a season will strike land. One should always remember that, and be prepared, such as by following the NOAA/NWS <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl" target="_blank">storm tracking page</a> and FEMA <a href="https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes" target="_blank">hurricane preparation guidance</a>. And with the last couple of seasons seeing major hurricanes (some making landfall), preparedness takes on a new urgency.</p><p>But are we really seeing more of these major hurricanes, or is it just an impression — or coincidence?</p>
<h3>Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger</h3><p>The fact is that global warming is loading the dice when it comes to hurricane strength, with abnormally warm water being one of the culprits because it has the potential to increase hurricane power. Two of the most powerful hurricanes in recent history, Harvey and Florence, gained immense strength in very little time, and one of the reasons was that the sea surface temperature of the water in its path was running well above normal. In the case of Harvey, Gulf waters were <a href="https://news.ucar.edu/132605/record-breaking-ocean-heat-fueled-hurricane-harvey" target="_blank">warmer than any time on record</a>, and temperatures along Florence's path were <a href="https://www.climatesignals.org/resources/map-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-sep-8-2018" target="_blank">3.6°F (2°C) hotter than normal</a>. That warmer water is linked to human-caused warming due to emissions from burning coal, oil and gas. And it is worth noting that, after further analysis, hurricane Michael was <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf" target="_blank">upgraded to a category 5</a> in April 2019, months after it hit in 2018.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNTc0MDg3MX0.YTFyxKKveNvtjJu5JrOEwmLdBRJDm5Y_0BQCRLpFK80/img.jpg?width=980" id="df354" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e83c4a2b2ac0415c74da474fa1a37e44" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>But it is not just the wind and strength of a hurricane that are amplified by climate change: global warming can also increase the amount of rain that hurricanes bring. Warmer air holds more moisture (read: more water to fall when it rains), and global average temperature is currently about 1.8°F (1°C) warmer than it was in the late 1800s. In fact, a <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2" target="_blank">study</a> found that the record rainfall from Harvey was roughly three times more likely and 15% more intense than in a world without global warming. Another <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018EF000825" target="_blank">study </a>found that higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures make hurricanes such as Harvey "more intense, bigger, and longer lasting and greatly increase their flooding rains."</p><p>Furthermore, research suggests that there has been an increase in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf" target="_blank">intense hurricane activity</a> over the past 40 years, and since the mid-1970s the number of strong hurricanes reaching categories 3 and above <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full" target="_blank">has roughly doubled</a>.</p><p>So, while we wait for this hurricane season to develop, let's be mindful of probabilities, a changing climate, changing conditions, and most of all, <a href="https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes" target="_blank">preparedness</a>. It reduces risks, helps ensure communities withstand the next storm, and can save lives.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ClimateChange?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ClimateChange</a> Is Already Making <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricanes?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Hurricanes</a> Wetter, Study Confirms <a href="https://t.co/ngztLITdyC">https://t.co/ngztLITdyC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateCentral?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateCentral</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateNexus</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1063280583068008448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Astrid Caldas is a climate scientist with the Climate & Energy program at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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The 2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid. Edmunds / YouTube screenshot
By Josh Goldman
Looking to clean up your commute? Choosing a less polluting vehicle is one of the biggest things you can do to combat climate change and fortunately for you, I just got back from the DC and NY Auto Shows where automakers displayed the latest and greatest clean vehicles coming to a showroom near you.
<p><a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/electric-vehicles">Electric vehicles</a> were prominently displayed at this year's auto shows; for good reason. EVs are <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/5-reasons-choose-electric-car" target="_blank">cheaper and cleaner to drive</a> than their gasoline-powered counterparts and are beginning to appear as SUVs and pickups, which are the most popular vehicle types in the U.S. Want to find out how clean an EV is in your area? Check out this handy <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/ev-emissions-tool" target="_blank">emissions calculator</a>.</p>
<h3>2019 Hyundai Kona EV</h3><p>This crossover utility EV is already a fan favorite, having generated strong reviews from <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/hyundai/kona-electric" target="_blank">auto reporters</a> and <a href="https://www.consumerreports.org/hybrids-evs/2019-hyundai-kona-ev-first-drive-review/" target="_blank">consumer advocates</a> since it was introduced to the U.S. in January 2019. It not only has good looks, but also good performance. The Kona EV gets 258 miles on a full charge from its 64 kWh battery pack, which can be filled up to 80 percent in just 75 minutes from a 50kW level 3 charger, or to 100 percent when plugged into a level 2 (240V) charger overnight. The <a href="https://www.kia.com/us/en/vehicle/niro-ev/2019" target="_blank">Kia Niro EV</a>, the Kona's sister car, has similar specs.</p><p>The only bad news here is the Kona EV is exclusively available on the West Coast and in Northeast states (specifically, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington state and Washington, DC). Should sales of this newcomer prove strong, Hyundai may be pressed to expand its availability but until then, you need to travel to a state where it is sold to take possession of this new EV offering from Hyundai.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTQ2NTEzMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MTA0MjQ1Mn0.fViFpP-qQ2JWWPKSXl13zzgCSFWwsAewacASdC-4vo8/img.jpg?width=980" id="edd29" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="872df4e730e2f00d113004124a8efc56" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: Hyundai
<h3>2019 Volkswagen e-Golf</h3><p>Volkswagen is slowly making amends for their <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_emissions_scandal" target="_blank">transgressions</a> and are beginning to offer electric options across their vehicle classes. One of the reasons why I'm excited about the 2019 VW e-Golf is its price. This all electric hatchback <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf" target="_blank">starts at $32,790</a> and is still eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit — bringing the base MSRP down to $25,290. Considering that the average new vehicle cost $37,577 at the end of 2018, getting a nice VW for around $25k is a great deal. Though the e-Golf offers slightly less range than its competitors (estimated 125 miles on a full charge), it's a good size — easily fitting four adults with bags in the trunk — and has plenty of electric range for most daily driving. Its price and features earned the e-Golf "best electric vehicle in the compact class" honors from <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/volkswagen/e-golf" target="_blank">Car & Driver</a>, and an overall <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/a25252134/10best-cars-2019/" target="_blank">10Best award for 2019</a>. Similar to the Kona EV, the availability of the e-Golf is limited to the "<a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/california-and-western-states/what-is-zev?_ga=2.153883448.1855975079.1557836254-1020616386.1555943858" target="_blank">ZEV states</a>" for now, but VW plans to bring more EVs to all 50 states <a href="https://newsroom.vw.com/vehicles/volkswagen-plans-to-produce-evs-in-america-starting-in-2022/" target="_blank">as soon as 2022</a>.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTQ2NTEzNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxOTMxODE0OH0.P4NOQ0Fw6K1ka2E1xGIhNDkaVlhQiUy9EP4g6AgTzbc/img.jpg?width=980" id="e8f6a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6d919657eb67ceda1aea9e87b3add16d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: Volkswagen
<h3>2019 Chrysler Pacifica Plug-In Hybrid</h3><p>Minivan alert! Do you need to shuttle gremlins to soccer practice or the mall but also want to cut your carbon footprint? Then this 2019 offering from Chrysler may be for you, as it is currently the only plug-in minivan for sale in the U.S. With the ability to travel 32 miles on a full charge, the Pacifica Hybrid can avoid filling up with gas for weeks or even months depending on your daily driving needs. It is also eligible for the $7,500 federal tax credit, which brings its price more in line with other traditional minivans.</p><p>When the battery is depleted, the Pacifica Hybrid operates like a traditional gasoline-electric hybrid, and achieves considerably better fuel economy than its gas-only minivan competitors. EPA rates the Pacifica Hybrid as capable of 32 miles per gallon combined in traditional hybrid mode, which is 10 mpg more than the Toyota Sienna, Honda Odyssey, and standard Pacifica. With its 16.5-gallon fuel tank, the Pacifica Hybrid also offers an outstanding 520 miles of total driving range, plenty for weekend warrior'ing or long road tips.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTQ2NTE0Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NzU5ODUyNH0.4rq8ZPUAFxd1B3dSCoRIG0TvHiXLXKxxepUC8rbH_rM/img.jpg?width=980" id="84605" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c07fa2ab473d17044e80fb97c2d56621" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: Chrysler
<h3>2020 Toyota Corolla Traditional Hybrid</h3><p>For the car shoppers who can't use an EV because they don't have a place to plug it in every night, this traditional gasoline-electric hybrid might be a better choice. The 2020 Toyota Corolla Hybrid comes in at a MSRP of just $23,880 and offers an <a href="https://jalopnik.com/the-2020-toyota-corolla-hybrid-has-killed-the-prius-and-1832887857" target="_blank">estimated 52 MPG combined </a>with the reliability consumers have come to expect from Toyota. Though the Prius has been the king or queen of traditional hybrids, the 2020 Corolla is a great alternative with a a more innocuous styling package.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTQ2NTE0NS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxODEyMjE2M30.xPVB7pLmwgVlU_wwsuM6PYmJ4k7s2LxjPMwjeZSnxnQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="1d83a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c35a562d13b4174ab37ef075916ea650" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: Toyota
<h3>2020 Rivian R1T</h3><p>Based in Plymouth, Michigan, start-up automaker Rivian recently raised funds to launch production of an all-electric pickup truck (the R1T) and an all-electric SUV they unveiled at the LA Auto Show this past November. Pickups and SUVs are the most popular vehicle classes in the U.S., so if Rivian cracks the code at producing an affordable electric version of these vehicles, they may be onto something huge. The Rivian R1T pickup is <a href="https://electrek.co/2018/11/29/rivian-r1t-electric-pickup-truck-order/" target="_blank">expected to deliver</a> up to 400-plus miles of range, have an 11,000-pound tow rating and a cargo capacity of 1,760 pounds, go <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a25299722/2021-rivian-r1t-electric-pickup-truck-photos-info/" target="_blank">0-60 in 4.9 seconds</a>, and have off-road capability. But these impressive specs will come at a price. The R1T is expected to start at about $69,000 before any tax credits, but if you need a pickup truck and are tired of burning too much oil as you carry your cargo around, check out the Rivian R1T.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTQ2NTE1NS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NDgyNjgwNn0.6GbmBmUL_4CghHFS7vMcS-cY1DNzBqMpsIcdcqjc0VQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="fbec4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="34e042ac5e34cbeb042d4405950c5734" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Photo: Rivian
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">EVs 101: Your Guide to Electric Vehicles <a href="https://t.co/UrqZtU34o3">https://t.co/UrqZtU34o3</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Electricvehicles?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Electricvehicles</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Transportation?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Transportation</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Energy?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Energy</a> <a href="https://t.co/wgsHfIAC4m">pic.twitter.com/wgsHfIAC4m</a></p>— Renewable Search (@RenewableSearch) <a href="https://twitter.com/RenewableSearch/status/1086977415677538305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 20, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Josh Goldman is a senior policy and legal analyst with the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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BLM Alaska Fire Service
By Carly Phillips
With little fanfare and scant news coverage, fire season 2019 has arrived. Firefighters are already containing blazes in several states, including Colorado, Florida and Oklahoma, and seasonal outlooks suggest that significant wildfires are likely in parts of Alaska, Hawaii and the West Coast.
<p>While <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/forests">forest</a> management and human development have increased wildfire incidence and risk, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">climate change</a> has exacerbated the trend of large fires and contributed to the lengthening of the fire season, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-17/california-fires-burn-all-year-as-drought-left-state-a-tinderbox" target="_blank">in some cases making wildfires a year-round phenomenon</a>. In the Western U.S., climate change is a major driver behind the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/113/42/11770" target="_blank">near doubling in burned area</a> that we've experienced over the past 35 years, and has contributed to <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/313/5789/940.full" target="_blank">an increase in the frequency and severity of fires</a>, while <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/6/" target="_blank">lengthening the fire season in some regions</a>.</p>
<p>Fires also simultaneously aggravate the impact of climate change by releasing huge quantities of carbon dioxide and other global warming gases into our atmosphere.</p><p>As the first act of this new fire season begins to unfold, we have a renewed opportunity and obligation to address the connections between wildfires, climate change and human activity, and take steps to interrupt this vicious cycle.</p>
<h3>Climate Change Worsens Fires</h3><p>Climate change is priming ecosystems in the Western U.S., Southeastern U.S. and Alaska to burn, while climate disasters like <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought" target="_self">drought</a>, rising temperatures and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_self">hurricanes</a> compound wildfire risk and spread.</p>
<h3>Drought and Rising Temperatures Change How Water Enters and Leaves Ecosystems</h3><p>Drought is a natural occurrence. However, now we have a greater risk of hotter droughts. Rising temperatures dry out soils and trees. While drought means that less water is entering the ecosystem, rising temperatures mean that water is leaving more quickly. As temperatures rise, plants lose more water per unit of carbon dioxide, exacerbating the already dry and dangerous conditions produced by drought.</p><p>With less water coming into the ecosystem, plants become water stressed, which can kill huge numbers of plants if drought conditions persist. In extreme cases, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0248-x" target="_blank">drought itself can kill trees</a>. Plants lose water when they perform photosynthesis, the process where plants use sunlight and carbon dioxide to make food, because they open their pores (aka stomata) to take in carbon dioxide, and water evaporates out in the process.</p><p>(This is such a big deal for plants that some have evolved special processes so they can avoid this water loss. In the desert, many plants only do gas exchange at night, when temperatures are lower and water-loss risk is the lowest.) #CAMLife #DinnerPartyFactoid</p><p>So in periods of extreme water stress like drought, they close those same pores to conserve what water they have. However, since plants aren't able to photosynthesize with their stomata closed, they then use up their carbon reserves and literally starve, known as <a href="https://nph.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1469-8137.2008.02436.x" target="_blank">carbon starvation</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169534711001698" target="_blank">Hydraulic failure</a> is another way drought can lead to plant death: where air bubbles in the xylem (water transporting plant tissue) block water transport and the plant dies. When <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0240-x" target="_blank">droughts are longer and more severe</a>, the risk of hydraulic failure increases.</p><p>Alternatively, trees can also die from complications associated with drought, like an insect infestation that a healthy tree could usually defend against. Climate change has magnified the negative impacts of insects, as in the case of <a href="https://www.fs.usda.gov/detail/catreemortality/toolkit/?cid=FSEPRD609121" target="_blank">California's bark beetle.</a> Cold temperatures have <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_other/rmrs_2010_bentz_b001.pdf" target="_blank">historically regulated the populations of these insects</a>, but as climate change continues to shrink the temperature range that any one given ecosystem experiences, these cold temperatures just aren't happening anymore. These insects also grow and <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_p015_3/rmrs_p015_3_063_067.pdf" target="_blank">reproduce more quickly in warmer temperatures</a>, which may further enhance their spread. While these outbreaks and subsequent tree deaths are changing the overall composition and structure of the ecosystem, they also can lead to a build-up of dry forest kindling. As a result, we can expect that forests in the West, Southeast and Alaska will continue to be full of dried out, ready-to-burn material.</p>
<h3>Hurricanes Can Increase Fuel Loads in Landfall Areas</h3><p>When hurricanes make landfall, violent winds can bring down huge amounts of timber. While landfalling hurricanes are rare, these natural disasters bring down huge amounts of timber that can easily become create fuel for wildfires. In 1989, Hurricane Hugo damaged approximately <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_journals/1991/rmrs_1991_saveland_j001.pdf" target="_blank">4.39 million acres of forested land</a> in South Carolina alone and generated widespread concerns about <a href="https://www.talltimbers.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Myersetal1998_op.pdf" target="_blank">increased fire risk</a> from larger fuel loads and higher wind speeds. In the past month, we've seen a similar phenomenon <a href="https://www.news-journalonline.com/news/20190406/bay-county-wildfire-could-be-sign-of-things-to-come" target="_blank">play out in Florida</a>, where <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/hurricane-aftermath-leaves-florida-with-years-of-major-wildfire-threat/" target="_blank">downed trees from Hurricane Michael</a> aggravated a small debris fire and inhibited firefighters as they worked to access and contain the blaze. The risk this year, however, is not isolated to Florida, and threatens large portions of the southeastern U.S.</p>
<h3>Fires Worsen Climate Change</h3><p>On the flip side, the burning of trees, dead biomass and soil sends <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1029/2011JG001695" target="_blank">huge pulses of carbon</a> <a href="https://www.doi.gov/pressreleases/new-analysis-shows-2018-california-wildfires-emitted-much-carbon-dioxide-entire-years" target="_blank">to the atmosphere</a>. Carbon enters an ecosystem when plants take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and incorporate it into their tissues. Over time, that carbon becomes integrated into soil, the largest land carbon pool, via plant roots and as dead plants decompose. These processes take time and the buildup of carbon stores is gradual. However, when fire roars through, <a href="https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1890/13.WB.005" target="_blank">all that carbon literally goes up in smoke</a>.</p><p>In carbon-rich areas like <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6250/819.full" target="_blank">boreal forests</a>, <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/habitats/tundra-biome/" target="_blank">arctic tundra</a> and <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo2325" target="_blank">peatlands</a>, the impact of fire on climate change is further <a href="https://www.eaps.purdue.edu/research/lwelp/docs/publications/Randerson_2006_Science.pdf" target="_blank">amplified</a>. The <a href="https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1392613" target="_blank">carbon in these ecosystems</a> accounts for about <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2008GB003327" target="_blank">50 percent of global soil organic carbon</a> or twice what is currently in the atmosphere as CO2. These ecosystems have built up carbon in their soil over MILLENNIA and a single fire can <a href="https://www2.nau.edu/macklab-p/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Mack_etal_2011.pdf" target="_blank">devastate these stocks</a>.</p><p>In addition, fires release particulate black carbon that can magnify the effects of climate change in two ways. When suspended in the atmosphere, the particles trap heat, magnifying the warming of Earth's surface. Once these same <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/06/26/wildfires-can-cause-glaciers-to-melt-from-over-a-thousand-miles-away-scientists-find/?utm_term=.03218bb558aa" target="_blank">particles disperse and settle on ice or snowy surfaces</a>, they can decrease the reflectivity and melt ice in areas like Greenland, further warming the world.</p>
<h3>We Worsen Both</h3><p>Due to our prolonged and ever-growing addiction to fossil fuels, we're exacerbating climate change which feeds back to catastrophic wildfires. Our continued spewing of global warming gases to the atmosphere has caused many of the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/our-work/global-warming/science-and-impacts/global-warming-impacts" target="_blank">climatic complications</a> discussed above. As a result, we're continuing to worsen a problem that we ourselves created.</p><p>Beyond fossil fuels, humans have aggravated wildfires by suppressing most fires, <a href="https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/factsheet/pdf/fire-understanding.pdf" target="_blank">moving into wild areas</a>, and simply <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/02/21/1617394114" target="_blank">igniting the fires ourselves</a>. Total suppression has been the primary strategy of the U.S. federal government on nearly all conterminous U.S. land for decades, despite indigenous knowledge and practices that preceded this policy. Unlike homes, restaurants and businesses, our national forests have evolved with fire, requiring it for <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/brv.12483" target="_blank">seed germination</a>, <a href="https://www.frames.gov/catalog/40718" target="_blank">competition reduction</a> and <a href="https://static.colostate.edu/client-files/csfs/pdfs/ColoradoFireEcologyOverview101712.pdf" target="_blank">general ecosystem maintenance</a>. The absence of fire means that material (branches, logs and understory shrubs) that would normally burn off in regularly returning fires, <a href="https://onlinelibrary-wiley-com.proxy-remote.galib.uga.edu/doi/full/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2012.00769.x" target="_blank">has accumulated in these forests over time</a>, creating <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112712003593" target="_blank">fuel-rich conditions</a> that drive these devastating wildfires. This suppression has also increased forest density creating greater competition for resources (especially in drought) and allowing fires to spread more easily through the forest.</p>
<h3>Interrupting the Cycle</h3><p>This vicious feedback loop where warming begets fire begets warming begets fire will continue without targeted, <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/science/" target="_self">science</a>-based intervention.</p><p>To interrupt the climate side of this cycle, we NEED to reduce our overall global warming emissions. This is achievable through a number of channels, including <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/decrease-coal-use" target="_blank">reducing our dependence on fossil fuels</a> and moving to <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/clean-energy/increase-renewable-energy" target="_blank">cleaner energy sources</a>. We can also <a href="https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25259/negative-emissions-technologies-and-reliable-sequestration-a-research-agenda" target="_blank">remove carbon from the atmosphere and protect the large stores of carbon</a> that already exist. Regardless of the mechanism, addressing our current wildfire predicament and guarding against future disasters requires that we also address climate change and global warming emissions.</p><p>To interrupt the cycle from the fire side, we need to codify information from <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/349/6254/1280.full" target="_blank">fire science into proactive fire management policy.</a> Research demonstrates that prescribed burns, <a href="https://www.nrcresearchpress.com/doi/10.1139/X10-109#.XMdDX-hKhPY" target="_blank">reduction of fuel loads</a>, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/342/6154/41.full" target="_blank">reestablishing historic fire return intervals</a> (the frequency with which an ecosystem experiences a fire event), reducing expansion into the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/13/3314" target="_blank">wildland urban interface</a> and <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/114/18/4582" target="_blank">strategic preventative planning</a> at the can all decrease the prevalence and intensity of the mega fires we've seen in recent years. On a more local and regional scale, fuel treatments and prescribed burns can be an effective strategy to reduce wildfire risk.</p><p>While science has revealed how we can work to resolve our current predicament, we are slow to follow through. <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/3515" target="_blank">Democrats</a>, <a href="https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/senate-bill/3085" target="_blank">Republicans</a> and <a href="https://www.energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/2016/6/sens-murkowski-cantwell-wyden-crapo-risch-work-to-improve-forest-management-and-wildfire-budgeting_1" target="_blank">bipartisan coalitions</a> in the Senate have drafted legislation to <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/rachel-cleetus/wildfires-and-climate-change-current-policies-fail-to-limit-wildfire-risks" target="_blank">address our nation's wildfire problem</a> in the past 3 years, but none of these bills made it into law. In March 2018, we made progress with a budget that included a <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/379736-spending-bill-includes-major-wildfire-overhaul" target="_blank">major restructuring of funds for fire fighting efforts</a>, including a disaster fund for wildfires. However, President Trump's most recent budget proposal slashes funds for forestry in <a href="https://www.cantwell.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/2019_03_28%20to%20USDA,%20DOI%20Wildfire%20Funding%20FINAL%20signed.pdf" target="_blank">both the USDA and DOI</a>, suggesting the progress made in 2018 may not be sustained.</p><p>Prescribed fires, where managers intentionally set and monitor fires towards ecological ends, are already used as a tool across the country to <a href="https://www.uaex.edu/publications/pdf/FSA-5009.pdf" target="_blank">reduce fuel loads and mimic natural fire return intervals</a>. The risks of this strategy, such as fire escape and increases in air pollution, often discourages decision makers from using this management option. While nearly <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs/rmrs_gtr292/2005_dether.pdf" target="_blank">99 percent of prescribed fires are successful</a>, those that escape are often the ones we hear about, like the <a href="https://www.gao.gov/assets/110/108587.pdf" target="_blank">Cerro Grande fire in 2000</a>. As an alternative, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112705000411" target="_blank">manual removal of fuels</a> (mechanical thinning) can reduce burn intensity and speed of fire spread while maintaining the ecological integrity of the ecosystem. In situations where prescribed fire is untenable, like following Hurricane Hugo, alternative strategies <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/rm/pubs_journals/1991/rmrs_1991_saveland_j001.pdf" target="_blank">like fuel breaks and strategic build-up of suppression capacity</a> can more effectively reduce risks of catastrophic wildfires.</p><p>Despite the bleakness of our current situation and the dangers that wildfires pose, we have the knowledge and skills to break this vicious cycle. 2019 seems as good a time as any to start.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Early-Season <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Wildfire?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Wildfire</a> Threatens Homes, Buildings in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Oregon?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Oregon</a> <a href="https://t.co/a6MJKsboas">https://t.co/a6MJKsboas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/wildfiretoday?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@wildfiretoday</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateGroup?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateGroup</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1108518652909883392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 21, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Carly Phillips is the Kendall Fellow for Protecting Carbon in Alaska's Boreal Forests with the Climate & Energy program at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em><br/></p>From Your Site Articles
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NASA
By Shuchi Talati
Solar geoengineering describes a set of approaches that would reflect sunlight to cool the planet. The most prevalent of these approaches entails mimicking volcanic eruptions by releasing aerosols (tiny particles) into the upper atmosphere to reduce global temperatures — a method that comes with immense uncertainty and risk. We don't yet know how it will affect regional weather patterns, and in turn its geopolitical consequences. One way we can attempt to understand potential outcomes is through models.
<p>Models are representations of complex phenomena that are used to approximate outcomes. While they have limitations, they are an important tool to help scientists and decision makers understand potential futures based on scientific, technological and policy changes. With both potential and profound risks and uncertainties, we need more expansive modeling research on solar <a href="http://ecowatch.com/tag/geoengineering">geoengineering</a> techniques — not only to understand possible environmental impacts and risks, but political and social consequences as well.</p>
<p>Without looking at this broader range of outcomes, the messaging behind solar geoengineering can then lead to simplifications and mischaracterizations of its potential in the media. In spaces where public familiarity is low and risks are high, scientists and journalists should both be responsible for capturing the nuance and complexities around geoengineering — only a full picture will enable an informed public debate.</p><h3>How We Use Modeling Must Evolve</h3><p>In the case of solar geoengineering, models offer the opportunity to examine questions on a global scale — a scale at which real world experiments aren't yet feasible or ethical. A small set of researchers have been examining the potential outcomes of solar geoengineering through modeling impacts for several years. This research has been valuable in gaining a deeper understanding of the possible consequences of deploying solar geoengineering. However, many of the scenarios analyzed have been under idealized, or "best case" conditions — in other words, we're not comprehensively looking at what could go wrong.</p><p>And as we all know too well, the real world rarely imitates the best-case scenario. An example that comes to mind is that of DDT. Developed as an insecticide, DDT was extremely effective at reducing mosquito populations for a number of years during and after World War II. However, widespread use of the chemical led to massive environmental harm due to a failure to thoroughly investigate its impacts before widespread use — impacts that were not accounted for.</p><p>With more attention being paid to solar geoengineering, researchers need to explore a more meaningful range of deployment scenarios to understand risks and tradeoffs under a much broader set of conditions. Modeling is most helpful when used not just to predict a particular outcome under the best-case conditions, but rather to learn about many possible futures. With <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a>, researchers have studied technical, economic and political narratives to capture a more realistic set of outcomes, and a similar strategy needs to happen for geoengineering. Only when research is done to know what can go wrong — in addition to what can go right — can we have a clearer idea of what the use of solar geoengineering could potentially entail.</p><p>In other high-risk fields, we require a high level of investigation about what could go wrong. Military war gaming exercises are a prime example: simulations of best- and worst-case scenarios are conducted by the government to see how politics, military strategy, and potential outcomes could interact in a myriad of ways — all before real combat takes place. Just as it's the responsibility of a carpenter to "measure twice and cut once," generals and admirals investigate war scenarios in order to save lives and minimize collateral damage. Solar geoengineering merits the same level of analysis.</p>
<h3>Messaging and Media Portrayals Can Be Dangerously Misleading</h3><p>Despite the risks of oversimplification, a new optimistic <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0398-8" target="_blank">study</a> titled, "Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards" was recently published in <em>Nature Climate Change</em>. Written by scientists at Harvard, Princeton, MIT and the Georgia Institute of Technology, these researchers modeled a simplified proxy of solar geoengineering to counter half of future climate change (estimated as a doubling of carbon dioxide).</p><p>They found that under these specific conditions there could potentially be a decrease in some climate impacts (such as temperature, water availability and tropical storm intensity) across regions. However, in addition to other limitations, the study used an idealized solar geoengineering system in the model — in other words, simply turning down the sun without the use of a particular approach, like aerosols. This can be helpful to understand aspects of solar geoengineering, but without a technology in place, it's not realistic to make assertions about who might be worse off since use of that technology would come with its own set of risks.</p><p>With a lack of realistic exploration of solar geoengineering, the messaging behind the technology led to overstated conclusions and mischaracterizations of its impacts in the media. While the authors were upfront about their use of an idealized scenario in the title of the journal article, some media stories focused on the benefits of solar geoengineering with limited discussion of the modeling constraints. Researchers must be responsible for putting their results in the context of its overall significance. The lack of doing so led to many article headlines framing the study as having much broader implications than merited. Some of these include:</p><p><em>"The Side Effects of Solar Geoengineering Could Be Minimal" - </em><a href="https://www.wired.com/story/the-side-effects-of-solar-geoengineering/" target="_blank"><em>WIRED</em></a></p><p><em>"The case for spraying (just enough) chemicals into the sky to fight climate change: A new study says geoengineering could cut global warming in half — with no bad side effects." - </em><a href="https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/13/18263953/geoengineering-study-solar-dose-climate-global-warming" target="_blank"><em>Vox</em></a></p><p><em>"Upon reflection, solar geoengineering might not be a bad idea" - </em><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/13/climate/plastic-free-grocery-shopping.html" target="_blank"><em>The New York Times</em></a><em> (subscription required)</em></p><p><em>"Radical plan to artificially cool Earth's climate could be safe, study finds" - </em><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/mar/11/solar-geoengineering-climate-change-new-study" target="_blank"><em>The Guardian</em></a></p><p><em>"Solar geoengineering could offset global warming without causing harm" - </em><em><a href="https://www.axios.com/solar-geoengineering-benefits-outweigh-costs-fa60406e-abc7-4da2-88b4-56f4f00e2ed4.html" target="_blank">Axios</a></em></p><p>In an era characterized by 280-character tweets, headlines matter. These oversimplifications from reputable news organizations do a disservice to geoengineering discussions. If readers moved past the headlines, they'd find that while journalists and authors often qualified the findings, there were extremely mixed messages about the real meaning of these results. Just as importantly, we need studies that would characterize a more realistic range of scenarios. As a newly emerging topic for public debate, it is crucial that solar geoengineering is presented in an accurate way. False impressions will only harm us when society needs to make critical decisions on how to approach it.</p>
<div id="296dd" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="LLCCQX1576663634"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1073397276675063808" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">3 Key Dangers of Solar #Geoengineering and Why Some Critics Urge a Global Ban https://t.co/LyaOtKe4D6 @thetroublemag @DeSmogBlog</div> — EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)<a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/statuses/1073397276675063808">1544752828.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p><em>Shuchi Talati is a UCS Fellow on solar geoengineering research governance and public engagement with the Climate & Energy program at the Union of Concerned Scientists.</em><br/></p>From Your Site Articles
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