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Does Ground-Breaking India-U.S. Announcement Put Clean Energy in the Catbird Seat?

Energy

The ground-breaking announcement Tuesday that India, the U.S. and a group of U.S. foundations have joined together to create two innovative financing mechanisms for rooftop and distributed solar power in India is emblematic of the new stage of the ongoing global energy transformation.

President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India talk after a working lunch in the Cabinet Room of the White House, June 7, 2016. Photo credit: Pete Souza / White House

It's exciting enough that energy access for the poor—which has been treated as a second thought for decades—is now at the top of the U.S./India diplomatic agenda, and that in partnership with U.S. foundations funding has been committed which will leverage up to $1 billion in investment. But this announcement also caps the opening round of a period in which emphasis on technology will be replaced by collaborations around business models, finance and the regulatory context. (The U.S. and India also agreed to jointly support amendments to the Montreal Protocol which will phase out the single most potent global warming pollutant, HFC refrigerants. One of the six major greenhouse gases is now on the way out. Five more to go).

Each year for 60 days' clean energy and climate advocates and innovators gather in a series of forums to assess the state of their movement and market. This “Season" (punctuated by fossil fuel gatherings like the June OPEC meetings) begins with the early April Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) forum in New York and ends with the June Clean Energy Ministerials hosted by major governments, this year in San Francisco. (Other major U.S. talk-fests in the 2016 season were the World Energy Innovation Forum, Climate Action 2016 and the Aspire Forum).

This first post-Paris agreement “Season" unequivocally signaled a new phase. Clean Energy is now in the global cat-bird seat.

This new phase has four markers:

  1. Clean energy is unavoidable and inevitable because it's cheap, not just because it is essential.
  2. The focus is no longer on future engineering—the new story is market share and policy barriers.
  3. Fossil fuels fade in the rear view mirror, a story whose end is nearing.
  4. Austerity, not climate denial or cost, is emerging as the major barrier.

1. Cheaper, cleaner

It took a year of intensive lobbying of the White House to get President Obama, in his January State of the Union message, to concede forthrightly that clean energy was now cheaper than fossil fuels. At this week's global Clean Energy Ministerial in San Francisco Energy Secretary Moniz boasted that while climate change had motivated investment in clean energy, the price advantage now made that revolution “inevitable," only to be trumped by Southern Company CEO Tom Fanning, leading one of America's most coal dependent utilities: “You can't keep the waves off the beach."

What drives this? Recent, unsubsidized, prices for solar in Abu Dhabi at 2.9 cents/kwh and wind in Morocco at 3.0 cents.

2. Market share not panel efficiency gets the spotlight

BNEF's Michael Liebrich launched the season with a keynote which highlighted that growth in clean energy investment had been undeterred by the collapse in coal and oil prices, and that investment in renewables for the first time exceeded the oil industry's historically sector-dominant exploration and development budget.

At ASPIRE, retiring U.S. Climate Envoy Todd Stern summed up Paris by saying, “It sets a vector. Things are going in one direction—towards a low carbon economy." Fatih Biroh of the International Energy Agency focused on the breakthrough that for two years' energy related CO2 emissions had remained flat while GDP kept increasing at 3 percent—carbon and prosperity, he said, are now decoupled.

While everyone emphasized that more innovation was needed, the conversation was strikingly unfocused on the details of making this happen. Bill Gates's cry that we need “an energy revolution" because the present trajectory will not get us the clean energy required got almost no traction. Liebrich openly mocked it, while Stern diplomatically praised the newly crafted Solar Alliance led by the Government of India as an important first step towards Gates's goal. Energy innovation was no longer a challenge, but an inevitability. Former ARPA-E Director Arun Majumdar led an ASPIRE panel featuring policy voices not engineers.

3. The twilight of fossil fuels

Fossil fuels are now seen as a fading, but still dangerous incumbent. At the Climate Action Summit UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon warned that progress has not yet reached the critical speed needed to meet global climate goals. At the Energy Innovation Forum Elon Musk shifted his focus from the superiority of electric vehicles to warning that the enormous subsidies lavished on coal and oil could still block cleaner, cheaper technologies. Musk called for a “global revolt" against these subsidies. The G7 at their Tokyo Summit instead set a stunningly lethargic date for phasing out those subsidies—2025.

But the stark implications of increasingly dominant clean energy received more and more thoughtful attention from fossil fuel stakeholders. (And 40 percent of ExxonMobil's shareholders, if none of its managers.) The Saudi Government resolutely refused to embrace a goal of $100 oil through production limits, recognizing that this would simply accelerate the end of oil's dominance in transportation. A draft report prepared for Canadian government concluded demand for oil could fall so fast that producers simply dump their barrels on to a shrinking market, leaving high cost oil like Canada's, along with pipelines and other facilities, stranded. For a major oil producer to face a world where its reserves will fetch a price of “$0" would have been shocking a year ago. But in Calgary oil analyst Paul Sankey lectured the industry: “Demand forecasts are way too positive … really, the essence of the opportunity for oil is to be dividend stocks to pay out. Not to attempt to grow, but actually to orderly liquidate."

4. Austerity the great barrier. Credit the great need.

Back to my opening, it was startling that one of the major announcements made by the governments of the UN and India yesterday while Narendra Modi was in Washington had to do with the creation of two new credit facilities, both designed to serve companies developing distributed solar projects.

If the $60 million pledged leverages additional private investment of $300-600 million these funds, matched with the $1.5 billion advanced to India's banks by the World and Asian Development banks could jump start India's rooftop solar revolution, and provide electricity to hundreds of millions who currently lack it. Excellent work.

But the focus on this innovative but relatively small piece of financial architecture also underscores the failure since Paris to move forward on credit arrangement that would unlock the $3 trillion that developing nations will need to meet their pledges by 2030—and those pledges, in turn, get the world no more than 50 percent of the way to decarbonizing its economy.

More stunning, the total need for urban infrastructure by 2030 will be $90 trillion. The money is there—investors, companies and banks are awash in funds seeking good, long term investments. The demand is there—global urbanization, the climate crisis and the energy transformation make this the perfect moment for massive investment.

But the big lie—that the world economy is overleveraged—blocks action. That lie led Europe to adopt “austerity" (a non-solution) after its economic collapse. In the U.S. it has blocked funding for desperately needed infrastructure like bridges and the grid, projects that bring together the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO—but not Republicans in Congress. And now its echo leads the industrial nations to veto financial innovation which could transform a halting, sporadic and painful transition from fossil fuels into a moment of dynamic excitement and growth.

Climate denial is still a threat and a problem—particularly in the politics of the U.S. But the ace in the whole that the coal and oil industry still hold, and that may enable them to cripple the growth in clean energy for 20 or 30 years, is the reluctance of wealthy industrial nations to recognize that this is a time to invest in—not strangle—the future.

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By Sherry H-Y. Chou, Aarti Sarwal and Neha S. Dangayach

The patient in the case report (let's call him Tom) was 54 and in good health. For two days in May, he felt unwell and was too weak to get out of bed. When his family finally brought him to the hospital, doctors found that he had a fever and signs of a severe infection, or sepsis. He tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 infection. In addition to symptoms of COVID-19, he was also too weak to move his legs.

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We are neurologists specializing in intensive care and leading studies related to neurological complications from COVID-19. Given the occurrence of Guillain-Barre Syndrome in prior pandemics with other corona viruses like SARS and MERS, we are investigating a possible link between Guillain-Barre Syndrome and COVID-19 and tracking published reports to see if there is any link between Guillain-Barre Syndrome and COVID-19.

Some patients may not seek timely medical care for neurological symptoms like prolonged headache, vision loss and new muscle weakness due to fear of getting exposed to virus in the emergency setting. People need to know that medical facilities have taken full precautions to protect patients. Seeking timely medical evaluation for neurological symptoms can help treat many of these diseases.

What Is Guillain-Barre Syndrome?

Guillain-Barre syndrome occurs when the body's own immune system attacks and injures the nerves outside of the spinal cord or brain – the peripheral nervous system. Most commonly, the injury involves the protective sheath, or myelin, that wraps nerves and is essential to nerve function.

Without the myelin sheath, signals that go through a nerve are slowed or lost, which causes the nerve to malfunction.

To diagnose Guillain-Barre Syndrome, neurologists perform a detailed neurological exam. Due to the nerve injury, patients often may have loss of reflexes on examination. Doctors often need to perform a lumbar puncture, otherwise known as spinal tap, to sample spinal fluid and look for signs of inflammation and abnormal antibodies.

Studies have shown that giving patients an infusion of antibodies derived from donated blood or plasma exchange – a process that cleans patients' blood of harmful antibodies - can speed up recovery. A very small subset of patients may need these therapies long-term.

The majority of Guillain-Barre Syndrome patients improve within a few weeks and eventually can make a full recovery. However, some patients with Guillain-Barre Syndrome have lingering symptoms including weakness and abnormal sensations in arms and/or legs; rarely patients may be bedridden or disabled long-term.

Guillain-Barre Syndrome and Pandemics

As the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps across the globe, many neurologic specialists have been on the lookout for potentially serious nervous system complications such as Guillain-Barre Syndrome.

Though Guillain-Barre Syndrome is rare, it is well known to emerge following bacterial infections, such as Campylobacter jejuni, a common cause of food poisoning, and a multitude of viral infections including the flu virus, Zika virus and other coronaviruses.

Studies showed an increase in Guillain-Barre Syndrome cases following the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, suggesting a possible connection. The presumed cause for this link is that the body's own immune response to fight the infection turns on itself and attacks the peripheral nerves. This is called an "autoimmune" condition. When a pandemic affects as many people as our current COVID-19 crisis, even a rare complication can become a significant public health problem. That is especially true for one that causes neurological dysfunction where the recovery takes a long time and may be incomplete.

The first reports of Guillain-Barre Syndrome in COVID-19 pandemic originated from Italy, Spain and China, where the pandemic surged before the U.S. crisis.

Though there is clear clinical suspicion that COVID-19 can lead to Guillain-Barre Syndrome, many important questions remain. What are the chances that someone gets Guillain-Barre Syndrome during or following a COVID-19 infection? Does Guillain-Barre Syndrome happen more often in those who have been infected with COVID-19 compared to other types of infections, such as the flu?

The only way to get answers is through a prospective study where doctors perform systematic surveillance and collect data on a large group of patients. There are ongoing large research consortia hard at work to figure out answers to these questions.

Understanding the Association Between COVID-19 and Guillain-Barre Syndrome

While large research studies are underway, overall it appears that Guillain-Barre Syndrome is a rare but serious phenomenon possibly linked to COVID-19. Given that more than 10.7 million cases have been reported for COVID-19, there have been 10 reported cases of COVID-19 patients with Guillain-Barre Syndrome so far – only two reported cases in the U.S., five in Italy, two cases in Iran and one from Wuhan, China.

It is certainly possible that there are other cases that have not been reported. The Global Consortium Study of Neurological Dysfunctions in COVID-19 is actively underway to find out how often neurological problems like Guillain-Barre Syndrome is seen in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Also, just because Guillain-Barre Syndrome occurs in a patient diagnosed with COVID-19, that does not imply that it was caused by the virus; this still may be a coincident occurrence. More research is needed to understand how the two events are related.

Due to the pandemic and infection-containment considerations, diagnostic tests, such as a nerve conduction study that used to be routine for patients with suspected Guillain-Barre Syndrome, are more difficult to do. In both U.S. cases, the initial diagnosis and treatment were all based on clinical examination by a neurological experts rather than any tests. Both patients survived but with significant residual weakness at the time these case reports came out, but that is not uncommon for Guillain-Barre Syndrome patients. The road to recovery may sometimes be long, but many patients can make a full recovery with time.

Though the reported cases of Guillain-Barre Syndrome so far all have severe symptoms, this is not uncommon in a pandemic situation where the less sick patients may stay home and not present for medical care for fear of being exposed to the virus. This, plus the limited COVID-19 testing capability across the U.S., may skew our current detection of Guillain-Barre Syndrome cases toward the sicker patients who have to go to a hospital. In general, the majority of Guillain-Barre Syndrome patients do recover, given enough time. We do not yet know whether this is true for COVID-19-related cases at this stage of the pandemic. We and colleagues around the world are working around the clock to find answers to these critical questions.

Sherry H-Y. Chou is an Associate Professor of Critical Care Medicine, Neurology, and Neurosurgery, University of Pittsburgh.

Aarti Sarwal is an Associate Professor, Neurology, Wake Forest University.

Neha S. Dangayach is an Assistant Professor of Neurology and Neurosurgery, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

Disclosure statement: Sherry H-Y. Chou receives funding from The University of Pittsburgh Clinical Translational Science Institute (CTSI), the National Institute of Health, and the University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine Dean's Faculty Advancement Award. Sherry H-Y. Chou is a member of Board of Directors for the Neurocritical Care Society. Neha S. Dangayach receives funding from the Bee Foundation, the Friedman Brain Institute, the Neurocritical Care Society, InCHIP-UConn Center for mHealth and Social Media Seed Grant. She is faculty for emcrit.org and for AiSinai. Aarti Sarwal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

Reposted with permission from The Conversation.


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"We've moved the needle a lot, especially on environmental justice and upping Biden's ambition," said Sunrise Movement co-founder and executive director Varshini Prakash, a member of the Biden-Sanders Climate Task Force. "But there's still more work to do to push Democrats to act at the scale of the climate crisis."

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In a series of tweets Wednesday night, Ocasio-Cortez—the lead sponsor of the House Green New Deal resolution—noted that the Climate Task Force "shaved 15 years off Biden's previous target for 100% clean energy."

"Of course, like in any collaborative effort, there are areas of negotiation and compromise," said the New York Democrat. "But I do believe that the Climate Task Force effort meaningfully and substantively improved Biden's positions."

 

The 110 pages of policy recommendations from the six eight-person Unity Task Forces on education, the economy, criminal justice, immigration, climate change, and healthcare are aimed at shaping negotiations over the 2020 Democratic platform at the party's convention next month.

Sanders said that while the "end result isn't what I or my supporters would've written alone, the task forces have created a good policy blueprint that will move this country in a much-needed progressive direction and substantially improve the lives of working families throughout our country."

"I look forward to working with Vice President Biden to help him win this campaign," the Vermont senator added, "and to move this country forward toward economic, racial, social, and environmental justice."

Biden, for his part, applauded the task forces "for helping build a bold, transformative platform for our party and for our country."

"I am deeply grateful to Bernie Sanders for working with us to unite our party and deliver real, lasting change for generations to come," said the former vice president.

On the life-or-death matter of reforming America's dysfunctional private health insurance system—a subject on which Sanders and Biden clashed repeatedly throughout the Democratic primary process—the Unity Task Force affirmed healthcare as "a right" but did not embrace Medicare for All, the signature policy plank of the Vermont senator's presidential bid.

Instead, the panel recommended building on the Affordable Care Act by establishing a public option, investing in community health centers, and lowering prescription drug costs by allowing the federal government to negotiate prices. The task force also endorsed making all Covid-19 testing, treatments, and potential vaccines free and expanding Medicaid for the duration of the pandemic.

"It has always been a crisis that tens of millions of Americans have no or inadequate health insurance—but in a pandemic, it's potentially catastrophic for public health," the task force wrote.

Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a former Michigan gubernatorial candidate and Sanders-appointed member of the Healthcare Task Force, said that despite major disagreements, the panel "came to recommendations that will yield one of the most progressive Democratic campaign platforms in history—though we have further yet to go."

 

Observers and advocacy groups also applauded the Unity Task Forces for recommending the creation of a postal banking system, endorsing a ban on for-profit charter schools, ending the use of private prisons, and imposing a 100-day moratorium on deportations "while conducting a full-scale study on current practices to develop recommendations for transforming enforcement policies and practices at ICE and CBP."

Marisa Franco, director of immigrant rights group Mijente, said in a statement that "going into these task force negotiations, we knew we were going to have to push Biden past his comfort zone, both to reconcile with past offenses and to carve a new path forward."

"That is exactly what we did, unapologetically," said Franco, a member of the Immigration Task Force. "For years, Mijente, along with the broader immigrant rights movement, has fought to reshape the narrative around immigration towards racial justice and to focus these very demands. We expect Biden and the Democratic Party to implement them in their entirety."

"There is no going back," Franco added. "Not an inch, not a step. We must only move forward from here."

Reposted with permission from Common Dreams.