Quantcast
Climate
NASA

World Is Set to Warm 3.4°C By 2100

By Alex Kirby

By approaching 2100, a world set for 3.4˚C will, on present trends, probably be the reality confronting our descendants—slightly less warm than looked likely a year ago, analysts think. That's the good news, you could say.

But the bad news is twofold. First, this improvement in planetary prospects will still leave the global temperature increase more than twice as high as the internationally agreed target of 1.5˚C. And secondly, it depends largely on the efforts of just two countries—China and India.


They have made significant progress in tackling climate change in the last twelve months. In contrast, a report by the analysts, from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), says that not only U.S. climate policy has been rolled back under President Trump. Most individual governments' climate commitments are going in the wrong direction.

The CAT report says the world will, on present trends, still reach 2100 a long way above the 1.5˚C target for the Earth's maximum tolerable temperature rise, which was endorsed in the Paris agreement.

The Climate Action Tracker is an independent science-based assessment that each year tracks countries' emission commitments and actions. Its members are Climate Analytics, Ecofys and NewClimate Institute.

The CAT's latest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections, based on government policies currently in place, suggest they will lead to a 0.2°C decrease in projected warming, to 3.4˚C by 2100, compared with 3.6˚C in November 2016.

This is the first time since the CAT began tracking action in 2009 that policies at a national level have visibly reduced its end-of-century temperature estimate and also reduced the 2030 emissions gap between current policies and what is needed to meet the 1.5°C temperature limit.

The analysts say China's emissions growth has slowed dramatically: in the first decade of this century, its emissions grew by 110 percent, but between 2010 and 2015, growth had slowed to only 16 percent. China is set to far overachieve its climate commitment, or Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as countries' undertakings are known in the UN.

The CAT's estimate of emissions from China in 2030 is 13 GtCO2e‚ 0.7 GtCO2e lower than its 2016 estimate. If China continues with its coal abatement, this could drop by another 0.7 GtCO2e.

One Gt is one gigatonne, a billion metric tons; CO2e, carbon dioxide equivalent, expresses the impact of different greenhouse gases in terms of CO2.

Need for Review

Equally, India has increased its climate action, the analysts say. If it fully implemented its Draft Electricity Plan, its emissions in 2030 would be 4.5 GtCO2e—almost 1 GtCO2e lower than the CAT predicted last year.

If India were to strengthen its NDC to match the ambition level of its Draft Electricity Plan, its targeted emissions level would be moving much closer to the range compatible with the Paris target of 1.5˚C.

"It is clear who the leaders are here: in the face of U.S. inaction, China and India are stepping up," said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics. "However, both need to review—and strengthen—their Paris commitments."

"Over the last year, governments have made substantial steps in improving climate policies," said Niklas Höhne of NewClimate Institute. "And this has had a discernible effect on global emissions projections. For example, in the face of increasingly cheaper renewable energy, many are now actively moving away from coal." But the CAT shows that many governments are not seizing the opportunities renewables offer.

The report is a mosaic, detailing some encouraging trends. For example, the authors now think global emissions under current policies in 2030 will be at least 1.7 GtCO2e per year lower than last year's projection.

Emissions to Rise

But there are negative conclusions too. Mainly because of the U.S.'s announced withdrawal from the Paris agreement, there has been a significant deterioration in progress to limit expected warming, it finds.

If all governments fully implemented their Paris commitments, the NDCs, the projected global temperature increase in 2100 would be 3.2˚C above pre-industrial levels, up from last year's 2.8˚C, largely because of the U.S.

The CAT projects that global emissions are set to rise by 9 to 13 percent between 2020 and 2030, because of projected emissions growth in countries such as Turkey, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. In 17 out of 32 countries it analyzed, emissions will increase by more than 20 percent during this period.

The vast majority of NDCs are not in line with a fair contribution to meet the Paris agreement's long-term warming goal, it says. Only seven governments have implemented 2°C or 1.5°C compatible targets, and of these, four are not backed up by sufficient policy action.

At the same time, in 16 out of the 32 countries analyzed, emissions are projected to exceed their (already insufficient) NDCs. With the U.S., they include Australia, Brazil, Mexico and Canada.

Reposted with permission from our media associate Climate News Network.

Show Comments ()

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter

Sponsored
Climate
Greta Thunberg, a 15-year-old activist from Sweden, addressed a crowd at what campaigners say was Finland's largest ever climate demonstration on Saturday. Svante Thunberg / Twitter

Teen Climate Activist to Crowd of Thousands: 'We Can't Save the World by Playing by the Rules'

By Jessica Corbett

Addressing some 10,000 people in Helsinki on Saturday at what some campaigners are calling Finland's largest ever climate demonstration, 15-year-old Greta Thunberg urged marchers to fight for the major systemic changes that experts have said are necessary to limit greenhouse gas emissions and avert a looming climate catastrophe.

Keep reading... Show less
Health
As more studies affirm the health benefits of nature, doctors are writing it into their prescriptions. Michael H / Getty Images

Natural Medicine: More Doctors Prescribing Time Outdoors

Birdwatch for long-tailed ducks. Search for shells. Sketch some snowdrops.

These are some of the prescriptions you might receive if you go to a doctor in the Shetland Islands of Scotland and say that you are suffering from stress, heart disease, diabetes, mental health problems or other chronic conditions.

Keep reading... Show less
Oceans
Enipniastes eximia, aka "headless chicken monster." NOAA

'Headless Chicken Monster' to Help Antarctic Conservation Efforts

Enypniasties eximia—a deep-sea swimming sea cucumber scientists have affectionately called the "headless chicken monster"has been caught on camera for the first time in Antarctic waters thanks to new underwater camera technology developed by Australian researchers.

Footage of the finned sea creature will be used to aid important marine conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.

Keep reading... Show less
Popular
Animal Collective performing at The Concord in Chicago on Feb. 2, 2016. swinfinfan / CC BY 2.0

Animal Collective’s 'Tangerine Reef': Myth, Mystery and Subtle Environmentalism

By David Colgan

In a way, you could consider coral reefs the rainforests of the oceans—dense, mysterious and full of life.

Covering less than two percent of the ocean floor, they are home to a quarter of all marine species. But unlike rainforests, a longtime conservation focus, corals have received relatively little attention. The alien-looking seascapes have captivated explorers, divers and others privileged enough to visit, but remained largely out of sight for most people.

Keep reading... Show less
Sponsored
Animals
Giant Petrel flying over the South Atlantic. Liam Quinn / CC BY-SA 2.0

It’s Giant Mice Vs. Rare Seabirds on This Remote South Atlantic Island

On a remote island in the South Atlantic, a evolutionary battle is playing out between giant mice and rare sea birds. So far, the mice are winning.

Keep reading... Show less
Climate
Some of the young plaintiffs in landmark climate case Juliana v. United States. Our Children's Trust

Supreme Court Puts Historic Youth Climate Lawsuit on Hold

The U.S. Supreme Court put a landmark climate case on pause Friday while it considers a last-ditch attempt by the Trump administration to stop it from proceeding to trial, Climate Liability News reported.

Keep reading... Show less
Sponsored
Climate
Annette Bernhardt / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

3 Things You Can Do to Help Avoid Climate Disaster

By Stephanie Feldstein

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a dire warning last week: We need to cut greenhouse gas emissions, and we need to do it fast to avoid catastrophic climate change.

Keep reading... Show less
Politics
Jess Lundgren / CC BY 2.0

The Trump Administration’s ‘Dishonest’ Attack on Fuel-Economy Standards

By John R. Platt

The Trump administration's plan to freeze fuel-economy standards is "the most spectacular regulatory flip-flop in history," said a retired EPA engineer who helped to develop new the standards under the Obama administration.

Keep reading... Show less
Sponsored

mail-copy

The best of EcoWatch, right in your inbox. Sign up for our email newsletter!