Quantcast

1 Million+ Electric Cars Are Now on the World’s Roads

In 2015, the number of electric cars on the road globally passed the one million threshold for the first time.

The rapid growth of the industry means that it is now the only technology sector on track to meet the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2C scenario.

In 2015, the number of electric cars on the road globally passed the one million threshold for the first time. Photo credit: Wikimedia

This is the conclusion of the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2016 report, which it released on Wednesday. This is the latest edition of their annual progress review of the technologies that will determine the rate of global emissions, including renewables, nuclear, CCS and coal.

Last year’s report, covered by Carbon Brief, painted a bleak picture. It deemed that none of the 19 technologies it tracks had made the necessary progress to limit global temperature rise to below 2C. It said that five technologies were off track, while the remaining 14 were failing to improve fast enough.

One year on, its assessment is equally bleak. The number of technologies off track has risen to six, while 11 are failing to improve fast enough. Only electric vehicles have made to jump towards actually being on track to meet the 2C goal modeled by the IEA.

Scenarios

The IEA’s 2C scenario (2DS) sets out a pathway that would lead to a 50 percent chance of limiting global average temperature rise since the preindustrial era to 2C. This means cutting CO2 emissions almost 60 percent by 2050 compared to 2013 levels.

This scenario—as is also the case for its 4C and 6C scenarios—includes milestones for energy supply, buildings, industry and transport. Emissions reductions across all these sectors, it says, are vital for hitting the 2DS, as the graph below illustrates.

Global emissions reductions required across various sectors in order to reach interim 2025 targets that will lead to a 50 percent chance of staying below 2C. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016.

Its models are a combination of forecasting to reflect near-term trends and “backcasting” to develop plausible pathways to the long-term outcome. The report then ranks progress based on how far each technology or sector is from its interim target for 2025 under the 2DS.

Electric Vehicle Progress

In 2015, sales of electric cars around the world amounted to 477,000, taking the total volume up to 1.15m. Sales grew by 70 percent over 2014 levels. The IEA says that this means it is catching up with the rates needed to meet the 2DS.

In an interview with Carbon Brief, the IEA’s chief economist Laszlo Varro said:

“Electric cars are roughly 10 years behind wind and solar in terms of deployment and technology development. Still, electric car technology is also gathering momentum. Electric cars increasingly capture the consumer’s imagination.”

The U.S., China, Netherlands and Norway accounted for 70 percent of all the electric cars sold worldwide. In 2015, China became the world’s largest electric car market. But growth was also occurring outside these countries. The number of countries with a market share of electric cars greater than 1 percent grew from three in 2014 to six in 2015.

There have also been notable successes which show an “emerging niche” for electrification, says the IEA. This includes the decision of La Poste, France’s national mail carrier, to electrify its delivery fleet with 5,000 fully electric Renault Kangoos, with plans to double its electric fleet by 2020.

PHEV stands for plug-in hybrid vehicles and BEV stands for battery electric vehicles. Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2016.

Such growth is encouraging, says the IEA, after annual sales growth had slowed in 2014 to 53 percent.

To remain on track with the 2DS, average annual sales growth will have to be sustained at 66 percent through 2020 and at 39 percent through 2025. This now “seems achievable,” says the IEA, although it highlights that there will need to be sustained support. It says:

“Continued support for RD&D [research, development and deployment] is needed to hasten the milestone year when purchase costs of cars with all-electric ranges capable of meeting most driving needs reach parity with ICE [internal combustion engine] cars.”

This growth in electric cars has been helped by a simultaneous boom in public charging infrastructure, with the installation of fast DC chargers growing by 350 percent in China alone in 2015. This expanding network, along with improvements in driving range, are helping to narrow the gap between electric and conventional cars and may foster broader adoption, the IEA says.

Working Together

While the growth in electric cars is promising, the IEA emphasises that everything is interlinked. “Decarbonisation of electricity must accompany the push to electrify transport in the 2DS,” it says.

This is why the IEA insists on seeing the system as a whole within its scenarios. The 2C target cannot be hit unless there is also swift progress on renewable, nuclear, gas and coal-fired power, where the news is less positive. CCS and energy storage could also have an important role to play in a decarbonized power sector.

YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE

This Super Sustainable House Can Be Built in One Day

17 Young Social Entrepreneurs Who Are Making the World a Better Place

BMW South Africa Unveils Solar Carport to Charge Electric Vehicles

It’s Time to Break Saudi’s Oil Monopoly and Embrace Clean Transportation

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter

Kokia drynarioides, commonly known as Hawaiian tree cotton, is a critically endangered species of flowering plant that is endemic to the Big Island of Hawaii. David Eickhoff / Wikipedia

By Lorraine Chow

Kokia drynarioides is a small but significant flowering tree endemic to Hawaii's dry forests. Native Hawaiians used its large, scarlet flowers to make lei. Its sap was used as dye for ropes and nets. Its bark was used medicinally to treat thrush.

Read More Show Less
Frederick Bass / Getty Images

States that invest heavily in renewable energy will generate billions of dollars in health benefits in the next decade instead of spending billions to take care of people getting sick from air pollution caused by burning fossil fuels, according to a new study from MIT and reported on by The Verge.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
A couple works in their organic garden. kupicoo / E+ / Getty Images

By Kristin Ohlson

From where I stand inside the South Dakota cornfield I was visiting with entomologist and former USDA scientist Jonathan Lundgren, all the human-inflicted traumas to Earth seem far away. It isn't just that the corn is as high as an elephant's eye — are people singing that song again? — but that the field burgeons and buzzes and chirps with all sorts of other life, too.

Read More Show Less
Aerial view of lava flows from the eruption of volcano Kilauea on Hawaii, May 2018. Frizi / iStock / Getty Images

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano could be gearing up for an eruption after a pond of water was discovered inside its summit crater for the first time in recorded history, according to the AP.

Read More Show Less
A competitor in action during the Drambuie World Ice Golf Championships in Uummannaq, Greenland on April 9, 2001. Michael Steele / Allsport / Getty Images

Greenland is open for business, but it's not for sale, Greenland's foreign minister Ane Lone Bagger told Reuters after hearing that President Donald Trump asked his advisers about the feasibility of buying the world's largest island.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
AFP / Getty Images / S. Platt

Humanity faced its hottest month in at least 140 years in July, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Thursday. The finding confirms similar analysis provided by its EU counterparts.

Read More Show Less
Newly established oil palm plantation in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia. Rhett A. Butler / Mongabay

By Hans Nicholas Jong

Indonesia's president has made permanent a temporary moratorium on forest-clearing permits for plantations and logging.

It's a policy the government says has proven effective in curtailing deforestation, but whose apparent gains have been criticized by environmental activists as mere "propaganda."

Read More Show Less
jurgita.photography / Moment / Getty Images

By Grace Francese

Outbreaks of potentially toxic algae are fouling lakes, rivers and other bodies of water across the U.S. Nationally, news reports of algae outbreaks have been on the rise since 2010.

Read More Show Less