Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, aka the "Doomsday Glacier," is starting to crack. NASA / Wikimedia Commons
Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier has been called the "Doomsday Glacier." Thwaites and its neighbor, the Pine Island Glacier, are among those in West Antarctica most influenced by the climate crisis. If they melted, they could destabilize the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which has the potential to contribute about 10 feet to global sea level rise.
<p>Now, a new study has found that the ice shelves supporting the two crucial glaciers are beginning to fissure and crack.</p><p>"These ice shelves are in the early phase of disintegration," study leader and Delft University of Technology satellite expert Stef Lhermitte told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/weather/antarctica-pine-island-thwaites-glacier-climate-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. "They're starting to tear apart."</p><p>The research, published in the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/08/1912890117" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a> Monday, looked at satellite images taken between 1997 and 2019 to document the ice shelves' increasing damage. The images show crevices and fissures in the glaciers, according to a Delft <a href="https://www.tudelft.nl/en/2020/tu-delft/antarctica-cracks-in-the-ice/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">press release</a>.</p>
<div id="9e0ea" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="307392311f755bed5cb3a21f52e3dbc1"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1305597446182051841" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">We use satellite imagery to show how the shear margins of both @AntarcticPIG and @ThwaitesGlacier have weakened. He… https://t.co/nKn0nGLU9V</div> — Stef Lhermitte (@Stef Lhermitte)<a href="https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/statuses/1305597446182051841">1600113662.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Ice shelves are important for a glacier's stability because they provide support, similarly to how flying buttresses support a cathedral, International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration lead principle researcher Brent Goehring <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-images-show-deterioration-antarctica-glaciers-lead-rising/story?id=72985182" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">told ABC News</a>. Goehring was not involved with the paper.</p><p>The damage is occurring in the glaciers' shear zones, parts of the ice shelves where the fast-moving ice on top connects with the slower-moving ice or rock beneath, CNN explained. That damage significantly increased in 2016.</p><p>The researchers think that the damage they observed to the ice shelves will only beget more damage, Lhermitte explained in a <a href="https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/1305599311091240963" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter thread</a>. This is for three reasons:</p><ol><li>The damage undermines the structural integrity of the ice shelves.</li><li>The damage weakens the ice shelves and makes them more vulnerable to warming air and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> temperatures.</li><li>The damage creates a feedback loop, leading to more weakening and more damage.</li></ol>
<p>Because of this, the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/scientists" target="_self">scientists</a> suggested that the damage be accounted for in climate models to better predict how Antarctic ice melt will contribute to sea level rise.</p><p>Sea levels are currently rising by around 3.5 millimeters a year, and the Thwaites Glacier accounts for four to five percent of that, Goehring told ABC News.</p><p>"If those glaciers would destabilize, a lot of neighboring areas would also fall apart, causing a widespread collapse," Indrani Das, a co-principle researcher on an International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration project, told ABC News. "It would cause a huge sea level rise."</p><p>However, Das did not think it likely that the collapse would take place this century.</p>
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As a hurricane reaches the coast, it pushes a huge volume of ocean water ashore, known as a storm surge. Jerry Coli / Pixabay
By Anthony C. Didlake Jr.
Of all the hazards that hurricanes bring, storm surge is the greatest threat to life and property along the coast. It can sweep homes off their foundations, flood riverside communities miles inland, and break up dunes and levees that normally protect coastal areas against storms.
But what exactly is storm surge?
<p>
<br/>
</p>
What Storm Surge Looks Like From Shore
<p>As a hurricane reaches the coast, it pushes a huge volume of ocean water ashore. This is what we call storm surge.</p><p>This surge appears as a gradual rise in the water level as the storm approaches. Depending on the size and track of the hurricane, storm surge flooding can last for several hours. It then recedes after the storm passes.</p><p>Water level heights during a hurricane can reach 20 feet or more above normal sea level. With powerful waves on top of it, a hurricane's storm surge can cause catastrophic damage.</p>What Determines How High a Storm Surge Gets?
<p>Storm surge begins over the open ocean. The strong winds of a hurricane push the ocean waters around and cause water to pile up under the storm. The low air pressure of the storm also plays a small role in lifting the water level. The height and extent of this pile of water depend on the strength and size of the hurricane.</p><p>As this pile of water moves toward the coast, other factors can change its height and extent.</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4aad41892c2bbd9d82864f56b59611cd"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TbHO1mWHKq4?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p> The <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/surge/" target="_blank">depth of the sea floor</a> is one factor.</p><p>If a coastal area has a sea floor that gently slopes away from the coastline, it's more likely to see a higher storm surge than an area with a steeper drop-off. Gentle slopes along the Louisiana and Texas coasts have contributed to some devastating storm surges. Hurricane Katrina's surge in 2005 broke levees and flooded New Orleans. Hurricane Ike's <a href="https://www.hcfcd.org/Additional-Resources/Flooding-and-Floodplains/Storm-Center/Hurricane-Ike-2008" target="_blank">15- to 17-foot storm surge</a> and waves swept hundreds of homes off Texas' Bolivar Peninsula in 2008. Both were large, powerful storms that hit in vulnerable locations.</p><p>The shape of the coastline can also shape the surge. When a storm surge enters a bay or river, the geography of the land can act as a funnel, sending the water even higher.</p>
Other Factors That Shape Storm Surge
<p>Ocean tides – caused by the gravity of the moon and sun – can also strengthen or weaken the impact of a storm surge. So, it's important to know the timing of the local tides compared to the hurricane landfall.</p><p>At high tide, the water is already at an elevated height. If landfall happens at high tide, the storm surge will cause even higher water levels and bring more water further inland. The Carolinas saw those effects when Hurricane Isaias hit at close to high tide on Aug. 3. Isaias brought a storm surge of about <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/03/isaias-path-carolinas-northeast/" target="_blank">4 feet at Myrtle Beach</a>, South Carolina, but the water level was <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8661070&units=standard&bdate=20200802&edate=20200804&timezone=GMT&datum=MLLW&interval=6&action=" target="_blank">more than 10 feet</a> above normal.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDI5NDU5MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwNTMxMTAyNX0.136LZQwJEu9IF4eS8iWWFSe99sxiLBpFMxeIvrSr3To/img.jpg?width=980" id="63d28" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9dc9135513bb5741147c57d580dfdc32" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>
<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/anthony-c-didlake-jr-1151458" target="_blank">Anthony C. Didlake Jr.</a> is an </em><em>Assistant Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University.</em>
</p><p>
<em>Disclosure statement: </em><em>Anthony C. Didlake Jr. receives funding from the National Science Foundation.</em>
</p><p>
<em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-hurricane-storm-surge-and-why-is-it-so-dangerous-145369" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em>
</p><iframe height="1" src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/145369/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" width="1"></iframe>How a storm surge and high tide add up to coastal flooding. The COMET Program/UCAR and National Weather Service
<p><a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2680/new-study-finds-sea-level-rise-accelerating/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Sea level rise</a> is another growing concern that influences storm surge.</p><p>As water warms, <a href="https://sealevel.nasa.gov/understanding-sea-level/global-sea-level/thermal-expansion" target="_blank">it expands</a>, and that has slowly raised sea level over the past century as <a href="https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/world-of-change/global-temperatures" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">global temperatures have risen</a>. Freshwater from melting of ice sheets and glaciers also adds to sea level rise. Together, they <a href="https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/12/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">elevate the background ocean height</a>. When a hurricane arrives, the higher ocean means storm surge can bring water further inland, to a more dangerous and widespread effect.</p>From Your Site Articles
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Charleston, SC Becomes First City in U.S. South to Sue Big Oil for Climate Costs
11 September
Climate
The number of flood days in Charleston, South Carolina has risen from around four to around 89 in the last 50 years. Diane Cook and Len Jenshel / The Image Bank / Getty Images Plus
The city of Charleston, South Carolina made history Wednesday when it became the first in the U.S. South to sue the fossil fuel industry for damages caused by the climate crisis.
<p>The city sued 24 <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oil" target="_self">oil</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/pipelines" target="_self">pipeline</a> companies, including major players like <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/exxonmobil" target="_self">ExxonMobil</a>, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/chevron" target="_self">Chevron</a>, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/bp" target="_self">BP</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/royal-dutch-shell" target="_self">Royal Dutch Shell</a>, <a href="https://www.postandcourier.com/news/charleston-sues-big-oil-for-flooding-in-sc-lowcountry-caused-by-global-warming/article_a97f761c-f297-11ea-b9b6-07c93643bc83.html#:~:text=The%20city%20of%20Charleston%20filed,disastrous%20flooding%20in%20the%20city" target="_blank">The Post and Courier reported</a>. The lawsuit contends that the companies knew that their products were heating the global climate but denied the fact in public. It further seeks to charge them for the costs of protecting Charleston from increased <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">extreme weather</a> events.</p><p>"As this lawsuit shows, these companies have known for more than 50 years that their products were going to cause the worst flooding the world has seen since Noah built the Ark," Charleston Mayor John Tecklenburg said during a press conference announcing the suit, as <a href="https://www.live5news.com/2020/09/09/charleston-mayor-holding-news-conference-wednesday-afternoon/" target="_blank">Live 5 News reported</a>. "And instead of warning us, they covered up the truth and turned our flooding problems into their profits. That was wrong, and this lawsuit is all about holding them accountable for that multi-decade campaign of deception."</p>
<div class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="30f8c9a63724b0972d3d8af2ea247346"><div class="fb-video" data-href="https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=360821064951694" data-allowfullscreen="true"></div></div>
<p>Charleston, a low-lying city built on a peninsula between three rivers, is especially vulnerable to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>, according to <a href="https://apnews.com/fdd1235388b266ded96e4547524a3510" target="_blank">The Associated Press</a>. In the last 50 years, the city has gone from seeing around four flood days a year to almost 89, the suit contends. In addition, the city will feel the impacts of extreme weather events like <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/heat-waves" target="_self">heat waves</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_self">hurricanes</a>. The suit was filed days before the third anniversary of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/hurricane-irma-flooding-records-2484349881.html" target="_self">Hurricane Irma</a>, which inundated Charleston with a nearly 10-foot storm surge, the third highest in the city's history.</p><p>Tecklenburg made his announcement in front of The Battery, where construction crews were working to lengthen an existing sea wall, The Post and Courier reported. The sea wall extension is the city's first project to adapt to rising sea levels. Others include building more than 8,000 feet of new flood drainage tunnels and installing check valves to prevent tidal water from entering the city's storm drain system, according to Live 5 News.</p>
<p>The city expects sea levels to rise two to three feet in the next 50 years and it predicts that adapting to these changes will cost $2 billion, according to The Post and Courier. However, the lawsuit is not asking for a particular amount from the companies, instead hoping a jury will decide what is fair.</p><p>Many of the companies named in the suit did not reply to requests for comments. Those that did said that lawsuits were not the right way to address the climate crisis.</p><p>"Legal proceedings like this waste millions of dollars of taxpayer money and do nothing to advance meaningful actions that reduce the risks of climate change," ExxonMobil spokesperson Casey Norton told The Associated Press.</p><p>Charleston is now the 21st U.S. community to disagree and file a lawsuit against big oil.</p><p>"With today's filing, Big Oil is facing climate lawsuits on both coasts, in the Northeast, the Midwest, the South, the Rocky Mountains, and even Hawaii," Center for Climate Integrity Executive Director Richard Wiles told The Post and Courier by email. "The public is ready to hold this corrupt industry accountable for causing and lying about climate change, and officials across the country are stepping up to take action."</p><p>Charleston's suit comes about a week after a similar lawsuit was <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/big-oil-hoboken-lawsuit-2647462366.html" target="_self">filed by the city of Hoboken, New Jersey</a>.</p><p>It was also followed one day later by another climate liability lawsuit from the state of Delaware Thursday.</p>
<div id="00ba7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3f5e3d8ac183e5a9a93d3b8aa254e743"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1304084807564111872" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">🚨BREAKING: It's gonna be one of those weeks. Delaware is the latest state to announce another climate lawsuit again… https://t.co/0ljwUNZLqS</div> — Jennifer Hijazi (@Jennifer Hijazi)<a href="https://twitter.com/JenHijaz/statuses/1304084807564111872">1599753021.0</a></blockquote></div>
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The Community Flood Watch Project is collecting resident reports of flooding in Jamaica Bay, Queens. Bjoertvedt / Wikimedia Commons / CC by 3.0
Many of New York City's coastal residents are plagued by flooding – during storms and on sunny days.
<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/15824204/height/45/theme/standard/thumbnail/yes/direction/backward/" height="45" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe>
<p>"There are certain times of the year associated with the new and full moons where it brings higher-than-normal high tides. And with that, those tides can bring flooding into communities," says Helen Cheng, a former coastal resilience extension specialist with <a target="_blank" href="https://seagrant.sunysb.edu/" rel="noopener noreferrer">New York Sea Grant</a> and with the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.srijb.org/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Science and Resilience Institute</a>.</p><p>She says in the Jamaica Bay watershed, flooding can block access to the subway station that people need to get to work from day to day.</p><p>"Even services, sometimes – you know, the delivery of mail – can get impacted by water on the streets."</p>
<p>Cheng says tidal flooding is getting worse as sea levels rise, and it's important to know how people are affected. So as part of the Community Flood Watch Project, residents document and report flooding.</p><p>"There's a lot of value in on-the-ground information and community data, right? Because they're living in these places and experiencing these events 24/7," she says.</p><p>Cheng says the data improves flood warnings and sea-level-rise predictions, and it helps city leaders understand how flooding affects people's lives.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/09/new-york-city-residents-document-sea-level-rise-in-coastal-neighborhoods/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections.</a></em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Penguins gather on an ice floe near Davis Station, Southern Ocean, Antarctica on Jan. 25, 2019. copyright Jeff Miller / Moment / Getty Images
Antarctica and Greenland's ice sheets are currently melting at a pace consistent with worst-case-scenario predictions for sea level rise, with serious consequences for coastal communities and the reliability of climate models.
<p>A paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0893-y" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a> Monday compared the latest satellite observations of polar ice melt with the predictions outlined in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report</a>. It <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0893-y.epdf?no_publisher_access=1&r3_referer=nature" target="_blank">found</a> that the ice sheets are currently raising sea levels at a rate 45 percent above the IPCC's central prediction and closer to its worst-case scenario. If this continues, the two ice sheets could raise sea levels a further 17 centimeters (approximately 7 inches) more than central predictions by 2100.</p><p>"If ice sheet losses continue to track our worst-case climate warming scenarios we should expect an additional 17cm of sea level rise from the ice sheets alone," study coauthor and University of Leeds researcher Anna Hogg said in a <a href="http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4658/sea_level_rise_matches_worst-case_scenario" target="_blank">university press release</a>. "That's enough to double the frequency of storm-surge <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> in many of the world's largest coastal cities."</p>
<div id="2fa32" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b464cded4f9b3404465e4b8c04f92009"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1300528364873277440" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Ice sheets losses are tracking the IPCCs worst case climate predictions. This could mean an extra 17 cm of sea leve… https://t.co/wPdqTWef1D</div> — CPOM News (@CPOM News)<a href="https://twitter.com/CPOM_news/statuses/1300528364873277440">1598905099.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Since the 1990s, the two ice sheets have already increased global sea levels by 1.8 centimeters (approximately 0.7 inches). But it was between 2007 and 2017 that the ice sheets began to lose mass at a rate consistent with worst-case-scenario projections, adding around 1.23 centimeters (approximately 0.5 inches) to the water line during that decade, according to the study.</p><p>A worst-case-scenario sea level rise as currently predicted would expose 44 to 66 million people to yearly coastal flooding by century's end. But one of study's most alarming implications is that, if sea level rise is already tracking worst-case-scenario predictions, the actual worst-case scenario could be even more dire.</p>
<p>"We need to come up with a new worst-case scenario for the ice sheets because they are already melting at a rate in line with our current one," lead author and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds researcher Thomas Slater told <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/ice-sheet-melting-is-perfectly-in-line-with-our-worst-case-scenario-scientists-warn?fbclid=IwAR2s5aduvFPi61VIAg7yIvh813EBaKGyJPzQh836ugmUY3pPkm3wHGfaTx0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AFP</a>. "Sea level projections are critical in helping governments plan climate policy, mitigation and adaptation strategies. If we underestimate future sea level rise, then these measures may be inadequate and leave coastal communities vulnerable."</p><p>One of the reasons climate models might underestimate the worst-case scenario, Slater told AFP, is that they do not account for short-term weather changes such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/heat-wave" target="_self">heat wave</a> that <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-record-breaking-melt-heat-wave-2639610009.html" target="_self">drove</a> Greenland's <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-melt-2019-2647049163.html" target="_self">record melt</a> in the summer of 2019.</p><p>The models that will be used for the IPCC's next report are better at predicting how the ice sheets, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans" target="_self">oceans</a> and atmosphere interact, Slater said.</p>
<p>The latest study follows a slew of bad news for the world's ice. One study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">published in August</a> found that the Greenland ice sheet had passed the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted.</p><p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/earth-sea-ice-melt-study-2647072206.html" target="_self">Another recent study</a>, also driven by Leeds' CPOM, calculated that the earth had lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years.</p><p>These studies reflect a new global reality: In the last five years, melt from ice sheets and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a> has outpaced the expansion of warming ocean water as the main cause of sea level rise.</p><p>"It is not only Antarctica and Greenland that are causing the water to rise," Dr. Ruth Mottram, a coauthor on Monday's study and a climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told the University of Leeds. "In recent years, thousands of smaller glaciers have begun to melt or disappear altogether, as we saw with the glacier Ok in Iceland, which was declared 'dead' in 2014. This means that melting of ice has now taken over as the main contributor of sea level rise."</p>
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- Antarctica and Greenland Raised Sea Levels More Than Half an ... ›
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Earth Lost Over 30 Trillion Tons of Ice in Under 30 Years, Scientists 'Stunned' by Landmark Study
24 August
Climate
Sea ice breaking up in Greenland. steve_is_on_holiday / E+ / Getty Images
The Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years, and the climate crisis is largely to blame.
<p>The finding comes in a <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-232/" target="_blank">review paper</a> published in The Cryosphere this month that used satellite data and numerical modelling to calculate all the ice that melted worldwide between 1994 and 2017.</p><p>"In the past researchers have studied individual areas – such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctic</a> or <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/greenland" target="_self">Greenland</a> – where ice is melting. But this is the first time anyone has looked at all the ice that is disappearing from the entire planet," study coauthor and director of Leeds University's Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling Andy Shepherd told <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>. "What we have found has stunned us."</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a>, Antarctic ice shelves, mountain <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a>, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and Southern Ocean sea ice all lost mass during the study period, the researchers wrote. About 68 percent of those losses were caused by warmer air temperatures, while the remaining 32 percent were caused by warmer <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> water.</p><p>"There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," the researchers wrote, as The Guardian reported.</p>
<p>In fact, the total ice loss recorded matches the worst-case scenario predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And it's likely to get worse. The researchers prognosticate a meter (approximately three feet) of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a> by 2100.</p><p>"To put that in context, every centimetre of sea level rise means about a million people will be displaced from their low-lying homelands," Shepherd told The Guardian.</p><p>But sea level rise isn't the only consequence of ice melt. For one thing, the melting ice exposes darker ocean waters or soil, which absorb the sun's heat rather than reflect it, increasing global heating. The fresh water melting from ice sheets also disrupts Arctic and Antarctic ocean ecosystems, while the loss of mountain glaciers threatens the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drinking-water" target="_self">drinking water</a> of several communities.</p><p>"What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?" UK Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas tweeted in response to the news. "Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too. We can't say we didn't know. Are we really saying we just didn't care?"</p>
<div id="820ce" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bc5cc2d33d34204b11a78693091a1afe"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1297470664031588352" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?
Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too
W… https://t.co/cvYV9ore53</div> — Caroline Lucas (@Caroline Lucas)<a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/statuses/1297470664031588352">1598176086.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>This has been a bad summer for ice news. Another study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">published this month</a> found that Greenland's ice sheet had reached the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted. A <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-melt-2019-2647049163.html" target="_self">third study</a> found that Greenland lost a record amount of ice in 2019.</p>
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Arctic sea ice in the Denmark Strait on the east coast of Greenland. NASA
The records of Greenland's ice melt date back to 1948 and nothing in that record compares to what happened in 2019. The amount of ice lost was more than double what it has been any year since 2013. The net ice loss in 2019 clocked in at more than 530 billion metric tons for 2019. To put that in context, that's as if seven Olympic-sized swimming pools were dumped into the ocean every second of the year, according to The Guardian.
<p><br/></p>
<p>The new study, which used NASA satellite data to measure the size of Greenland's ice, found that in July alone, Greenland lost 223 billion tons of ice. That means for that one month, it lost what it normally loses in an entire year, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/climate/greenland-ice-loss-climate-change.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p><p>The study was published Thursday in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0010-1,"><em>Communications Earth and Environment</em></a>. It follows a trend of troubling news coming out of Greenland. Another new study published in the same journal found that even if the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis">climate crisis</a> stopped today, Greenland's ice sheet is so diminished it will never recover, as <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html">EcoWatch</a> reported earlier this week. That study found the ice is retreating in rapid bursts and may portend an ominous revision of predictions of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea level rise</a>.</p>
<p>This new study also spells trouble for coastal cities as it may force scientists to revise their predictions to match the accelerated pace of ice melt, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-arctic/greenlands-ice-sheet-saw-record-mass-loss-in-2019-study-finds-idUSKBN25G1RM" target="_blank">Reuters</a> reported. The island's ice sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels by 20 feet, or six meters, if it were to melt away completely.</p><p>"We are likely on the path of accelerated sea level rise," said Ingo Sasgen, a glaciologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and co-author of the study, to Reuters. "More melting of the ice sheet is not compensated by periods when we have extreme snowfall.</p><p>"What this shows is that the ice sheet is not only out of balance but it's increasingly likely to produce more and more extreme loss years," he added, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/weather/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-climate-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>Sasgen noted that 2010 and 2012 were also years with massive amounts of melting and he expects more are in the not-too-distant future.</p>
<p>"The real message is that the ice sheet is strongly out of balance," Sasgen said, as The Guardian reported. "If we look at the record melt years, the top five occurred in the last 10 years, and that is a concern. But we know what to do about it: reduce CO2 emissions."</p><p>Greenland's ice sheet is the second largest in the world, behind Antarctica's. CNN notes that the amount of ice it loses everywhere will start to increase sea level beyond the one millimeter it adds annually, pointing out that planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions are the culprit. And all that warming is creating a dangerous feedback loop.</p><p>"This extreme melt kicks off feedbacks that may accelerate the mass loss. This is what is worrying, the extremes are increasing and we understand too little about how the ice sheet will respond to more extreme climate variability," Sasgen said, as CNN reported.</p>
<p>The amount of melting that's happening means trouble for the hundreds of millions of people that live along coastlines, but there is still time for them to retreat inland. The ice sheet will likely not melt entirely since the rate of melt tends to slow down as the ice retreats from warmer <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans">ocean</a> waters. Furthermore, the centuries it will take to melt completely gives us some time to reverse course on emissions, according to The Guardian.</p><p>"If we reduce CO2, we will reduce Arctic warming and we will therefore also reduce the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland ice sheet," Sasgen said, as The Guardian reported. "So even though it might eventually disappear in large part, it happens much slower, which would be better as it would allow more time for the 600 million people living near coasts to move away."</p>
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Greenland's ice sheet loses mass when icebergs calve or glaciers melt into the ocean. Scripps Oceanography / YouTube
Greenland's ice sheet has reached the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted, a new study has found.
<p>The study, published in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2" target="_blank">Communications Earth & Environment</a> Thursday, used more than 30 years of satellite data to determine that the ice sheet would continue to shrink even if surface melting decreased.</p><p>However, the findings are not an excuse to give up on climate action.</p><p>"We've passed the point of no return but there's obviously more to come," study coauthor and Ohio State University professor Ian Howat told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/weather/greenland-ice-sheet/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. "Rather than being a single tipping point in which we've gone from a happy ice sheet to a rapidly collapsing ice sheet, it's more of a staircase where we've fallen off the first step but there's many more steps to go down into the pit."</p>
<div id="155a0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b38a21785e9ee054eea521a16171d0e1"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293931597666951168" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The Greenland ice sheet has reached a point of no return; even if global warming stopped today, the ice sheet will… https://t.co/zDrE58aKc8</div> — Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center (@Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/ByrdPolar/statuses/1293931597666951168">1597332307.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Greenland's ice sheet loses mass when icebergs calve or <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a> melt into the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> and gains it when snow falls on the surface of the glaciers.</p><p>The scientists used monthly data from more than 200 large glaciers that drain into the ocean around Greenland, an <a href="https://news.osu.edu/warming-greenland-ice-sheet-passes-point-of-no-return/" target="_blank">Ohio State University press release explained</a>. During the 1980s and 1990s, the glaciers lost roughly as much ice through melt and calving as they gained through snowfall. But, starting in the year 2000, that changed.</p>
<p>"We are measuring the pulse of the ice sheet — how much ice glaciers drain at the edges of the ice sheet — which increases in the summer. And what we see is that it was relatively steady until a big increase in ice discharging to the ocean during a short five- to six-year period," lead study author and Ohio State University <a href="https://bpcrc.osu.edu/" target="_blank">Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center</a> scientist Michalea King said in the press release.</p><p>Before 2000, the ice sheet had an equal chance of gaining or losing mass each year; now, it only would only gain mass once every 100 years. Greenland's larger glaciers have also retreated about three kilometers (approximately two miles) since 1985. This means more of the glaciers are exposed to warmer ocean water, which increases melting. That is why the ice sheet would continue to retreat if global warming stopped.</p>
<p>When it comes to climate change, what happens in Greenland does not stay in Greenland. The Greenland ice sheet is the largest contributor to global <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>, the paper pointed out. It currently raises ocean levels by more than a millimeter a year, CNN reported. And sea levels are expected to increase by around three feet by century's end.</p><p>"There's a lot of places, like in Florida especially, where one meter alone would cover a lot of existing land areas," King told CNN. "And that's exacerbated when you get storms and hurricanes and things like that, that then cause extra surge on top of a higher baseline."</p><p>However, King said studies like hers could help low-lying areas adapt to the coming changes.</p><p>"The more we know, the better we can prepare," she said in the press release.</p>
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Coastal Flooding Could Threaten Millions and Cost Trillions by 2100, New Study Finds
31 July
Climate
The last house to endure rising sea levels on Holland Island in the Chesapeake Bay off the coast of Maryland on May 23, 2010. The house collapsed in October 2010. baldeaglebluff / Flickr
The climate crisis may usher in a new level of global economic catastrophe and human suffering as extreme weather worsens and coastal flooding intensifies. A new study found that extreme weather will make coastal areas dangerous places to live as more intense storms crash into coast lines and increasingly high tides encroach inland, as The New York Times reported.
<p>"We are attempting to understand the magnitude of the global scale impacts of future coastal flooding," Ian Young, a professor at the University of Melbourne and an author of the study, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/30/climate-change-coastal-flooding-could-hit-20percent-of-gdp-by-2100.html" target="_blank">told CNBC</a>.</p><p>"Globally we need to understand that changes of this nature will occur by 2100 and we need to plan how we are going to respond," he said.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67736-6" target="_blank">study</a>, published in <em>Scientific Reports,</em> found that the economic damage from those storms and from periodic flooding may cost over $14 trillion and threaten 20 percent of global gross domestic product, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/30/weather/coastal-flooding-sea-level-rise-study-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>.</p>
<p>"This is on a 'business as usual' CO2 emissions scenario," said Ebru Kirezci from the University of Melbourne, who led the study, as CNN reported. "Business as usual" assumes a rise in average global temperatures at the upper end of predictions, if global emissions are allowed to continue on their current course.</p><p>The study pinpointed exact hotspots around the world most vulnerable to coastal flooding, as well as the potential economic impact on infrastructure and activity in those areas. As Fortune noted, the study also maps out in great detail the impact of episodic flooding caused by strengthening storm events and tides. Those events are predicted to be more damaging than the threat of slowly <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">rising seas</a> and will cause roughly 69 percent of coastal flooding by 2100.</p>
<p>Some of the regions that are particularly at risk, according to the study, are the following:</p><ul><li>The coasts of Northwest Europe, including Southeast England</li><li>The East Coast of the U.S., particularly the coasts of North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland</li><li>India, particularly around the Bay of Bengal</li></ul><p>The study was a collaboration between researchers from the University of Melbourne, IHE Delt in the Netherlands, the University of Amsterdam, the University of East Anglia in the UK, and Humboldt University in Berlin, Germany, as <a href="https://fortune.com/2020/07/30/coastal-flooding-gdp-impact/" target="_blank">Fortune</a> reported.</p>
<p>The authors also predict that the global population exposed to coastal flooding could be up to 287 million by 2100, which is 4.1 percent of the world's population, as <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/30/climate-change-coastal-flooding-cost-14-trillion-worldwide/5545712002/" target="_blank">USA TODAY</a> reported.</p><p>"What the data and our model is saying is that compared with now, what we see as a 1-in-100-year extreme flood event will be 10 times more frequent because of climate change," Kirezci said.</p><p>If the world's nations keep emitting greenhouse gases, and sea levels rise just 1 to 2 more feet, the amount of coastal land at risk of flooding would increase by roughly one-third, the research said.</p><p>"Even though average sea levels rise relatively slowly, we found that these other flooding risks like high tides, storm surge and breaking waves will become much more frequent and more intense," said Kirezci, as The New York Times reported. "Those are important to consider."</p>
<p>The study seems to add to the mounting evidence that the world's nations can greatly reduce future flooding risks by cutting emissions rapidly, especially since that could lower the odds of rapid ice-sheet collapse in Antarctica that would push up ocean levels even higher than forecast later in the century, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>However, Michael Oppenheimer, a climate scientist at Princeton University who was not involved in the study, told The New York Times that the world has now warmed so much that significant sea-level rise by 2050 is assured no matter what happens with emissions. "That means we also need to start preparing to adapt now," he said.</p>
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Earth's temperature is already about 1.2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. Neil Nissing / The Image Bank / Getty Images Plus
Just how hot the earth will get if carbon dioxide doubles from pre-industrial times is a question scientists have wondered about for the past 40 years.
<p>They have generally agreed that the planet will warm 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. Now, a major new study has narrowed that range, revealing we are unlikely to keep global heating below 1.5-degrees Celsius without immediate and dramatic reductions in emissions. They have tightened their range to between 2.6 and 4.1 degrees Celsius, or 4.1 to 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, according to <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/after-40-years-researchers-finally-see-earths-climate-destiny-more-clearly" target="_blank">Science Magazine</a>.</p>
<p>The comprehensive international <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019RG000678" target="_blank">study</a> released Wednesday and published in <em>Reviews of Geophysics</em> relies on three strands of evidence: trends indicated by contemporary warming, the latest understanding of the feedback effects that can slow or accelerate <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">climate change</a>, and lessons from ancient climates, as Science Magazine reported.</p><p>The researchers determined that there was less than a 5 percent chance of a temperature shift below two degrees, and a 6 to 18 percent chance of a higher temperature change than 4.5 degrees Celsius, or 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/climate/global-warming-temperature-range.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. The scientists pointed out that the earth's temperature is already about 1.2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and that, if current emissions trends continue, the doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide could happen well before the end of this century.</p>
<p>The paper was a collaboration of 25 scientists around the world. The lead author, Steven Sherwood, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia said that the group's research suggested that these temperature shifts are now unlikely below the low end of the range, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/22/climate/global-warming-temperature-range.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. There is a bright spot, though. The research also suggests that the "alarmingly high sensitivities" of 5 degrees Celsius or higher are extremely unlikely, though they are "not impossible," Sherwood said.</p><p>If global heating reaches the midpoint of this new range, it would be extremely damaging, said Kate Marvel, a physicist at NASA's Goddard Institute of Space Studies and Columbia University, who called it the equivalent of a "five-alarm fire" for the planet, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/22/climate-sensitivity-co2/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported.</p>
<p>"The main message is that unfortunately we can't expect that luck will save us from climate change," Reto Knutti, professor of climate physics at ETH Zurich's Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/22/global-heating-study-narrows-range-of-probable-temperature-rises" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> reported.</p><p>"The good thing is that we've somewhat narrowed the range of future long-term warming, the bad thing is that we can no longer hope or claim that the problem will just magically go away."</p><p>These scientists now say it is likely that human activities — such as burning oil, gas and coal along with <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/deforestation">deforestation</a> — will push carbon dioxide to dangerous levels that will usher in catastrophic consequences. They say there needs to be a concerted effort to drastically reduce emissions immediately, as The Washington Post reported. Staying below that level is still possible. If steep emissions cuts are made in the near-term, a doubling of carbon dioxide levels could be avoided.</p>
<p>The study of climate sensitivity is to be used by the United Nations's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change when it publishes its next major report in 2021 or 2022. As Science Magazine reported, the estimate will also inform projections for <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea-level rise</a>, economic damage and much else. A clearer picture of those consequences could do a lot to force local governments to cut emissions and adapt to warming, said Diana Reckien, a climate planning expert at the University of Twente. "The decreasing uncertainty could potentially motivate more jurisdictions to act," she said.</p><p>Andrew Dessler, a climate scientist at Texas A&M University who was not involved in the study, called this "a tour de force of climate science." He said via email to The Washington Post that the study "really, really kills the skeptical argument that climate sensitivity is low."</p><p>"It would have been great if the skeptics had been correct and climate sensitivity was, say, 1.5°C, but that's not the world we live in."</p>
<p class=""><em>Correction: </em><em>A previous version of this article said that we are past any hope of keeping global heating below 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. It has been updated for accuracy to say we are unlikely to keep heating below that threshold.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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A man observes a flooded stretch of Dock Street in Annapolis, Maryland on Jan. 25, 2010. Matt Rath / Chesapeake Bay Program
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said Tuesday that a trend of increased coastal flooding will continue to worsen as the climate crisis escalates.
<p>Increased flooding is happening even without storms. "Nuisance" or "sunny day" high-tide flooding is becoming more commonplace across the U.S., according to the NOAA report that warns such flooding will worsen in the decades to come as <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">seas continue to rise</a>, according to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/14/coastal-flooding-continue-increase-noaa-report-says/5437524002/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>.</p><p>The agency noted record levels of high-tide flooding in 2019. Some of the hardest hit areas were on the Atlantic and Gulf coasts, where the increase in high-tide flooding has been "extraordinary," according to the report, <a href="https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/Techrpt_092_2019_State_of_US_High_Tide_Flooding_with_a_2020_Outlook_30June2020.pdf" target="_blank"><em>2019 State of High-Tide Flooding and 2020 Outlook</em></a>.</p>
<p>The number of days with high-tide flooding set or tied records in 19 places around the country last year, including Corpus Christi, Texas, which recorded 18 days of flooding; Galveston, Texas (18 days); Annapolis, Maryland (18 days); and Charleston, South Carolina (13 days), as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/climate/coastal-flooding-noaa.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported. The place with the greatest number of recorded flood days was Eagle Point, Texas, in Galveston Bay; it dealt with high-tide flooding on 64 days, or about one out of every five days.</p><p>Those numbers represent huge jumps in a short period of time, the report found. In 2000, Corpus Christi had just three days of tidal flooding; Charleston had two. The report notes that Charleston recorded just 13 days of high-tide flooding in the more than 50 years that measurements were first kept — the exact amount that occurred in 2019 alone, according to The New York Times.</p>
<p>The Southeast, on average, has seen a three-fold increase in flooding since 2000, according to NOAA.</p><p>The Northeast will not be spared. NOAA predicts that from May 2020 to April 2021, the national high tide flood frequency is expected to accelerate, with U.S. coastal communities seeing an average of 2 to 6 days of flooding in the coming year. Communities along the northeast and western Gulf coasts are projected to see even more days of flooding, according to the report.</p><p>"America's coastal communities and their economies are suffering from the effects of high tide flooding, and it's only going to increase in the future," said Nicole LeBoeuf, acting director of NOAA's National Ocean Service, in a <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-high-tide-flooding-continues-to-increase" target="_blank">statement</a>. "NOAA is committed to working with coastal communities to provide the information and data they need to tackle the problem of high tide flooding, both now and in the coming years as sea levels continue to rise."</p>
<p><a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/nuisance-flooding.html" target="_blank">High-tide flooding</a> occurs when tides reach anywhere from 1.75 to 2 feet above the daily average high tide and start spilling onto streets or coming up from storm drains, according to NOAA. As sea level rise accelerates, damaging floods that used to happen only during severe storms now happen much more regularly, such as during a full-moon tide or with a change in prevailing winds or currents.</p><p>By 2030, NOAA projected, the frequency of high-tide flooding could double or triple, according to The New York Times. By 2050, that number could be five to 15 times as great, with the typical coastal community flooding between 25 and 75 days a year, NOAA said, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>"You see where this is going," LeBoeuf said. "We all need to pay attention."</p>
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Trump introduces EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler during an event to announce changes to the National Environmental Policy Act, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on Jan. 9, 2020 in Washington, DC. The changes would make it easier for federal agencies to approve infrastructure projects without considering climate change. Drew Angerer / Getty Images
A report scheduled for release later Tuesday by Congress' non-partisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) finds that the Trump administration undervalues the costs of the climate crisis in order to push deregulation and rollbacks of environmental protections, according to The New York Times.
<p>In one example, the administration estimated the cost of global heating for future generations seven times lower than previous federal estimates. By drastically lowering that number, which is known as the "social cost of the carbon," the administration could manipulate its cost-benefit analyses for deregulating carbon emissions, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/climate/trump-climate-change-carbon-cost.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported.</p><p>Every ton of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere imposes a cost on the economy, since it increases the likelihood from damage to infrastructure from <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea level rise</a>, heat waves or storms. Or, it imposes a health care cost as increased pollution harms public health. However, calculating the cost of those effects is both politically contentious and economically challenging, according to The New York Times.</p>
<p>Under estimates from the Obama administration, the social cost of carbon would be approximately $82 per ton of carbon by the year 2050, according to the forthcoming report. The Trump administration, upon entering office in 2017, quickly undid those numbers and changed the math of how the social cost of carbon was calculated. Under their revised system, the damages by 2050 are estimated to cost around $11 per ton of carbon.</p><p>One of the ways the math changed was keeping in line with Trump's narrow worldview. The report found that the administration brought the cost of carbon down by only looking at the effects on the U.S. rather than the global cost.</p><p>Another way it brought down the cost of carbon was by using something called the discount rate, which, according to The New York Times, assumes society should not pay much now to prevent harm from climate change to future generations.</p>
<p>"As a result, the current federal estimates, based on domestic climate damages, are about seven times lower than the prior federal estimates that were based on global damages," the report found.</p><p>The economic costs were supposed to be revised by the National Academy of Sciences, but the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/scientists-epa-panel-air-pollution-2640669910.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1" target="_self">White House disbanded the working group</a> and has no intention of restarting them or revising the economic calculation, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>That refusal to update their calculations means future incarnations of the federal government "may not be well positioned to ensure agencies' future regulatory analyses are using the best available <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/science/">science</a>," according to the GAO report.</p>
<p>Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, a Democrat from Rhode Island and one of eight senators who requested the review, said, "Climate change is a massive threat to our economy. That threat will only grow in years to come, even if we take the action necessary to avoid the worst effects of climate change," as The New York Times reported.</p><p>Michael Greenstone, an economist at the University of Chicago, said the Trump administration's calculations were not done in good faith.</p><p>"It was entirely a political act. I don't think anyone pretended that those moves were justified," he said.</p><p>Others see similarities between the Trump administration's handling of the coronavirus and its approach to the climate crisis: deny its reality and then leave the country unprepared for its effects.</p><p>"This really parallels the mismanagement of coronavirus," said Michael K. Dorsey, a limited partner with IberSun, a renewable energy company, and a climate expert, to The New York Times. "There's this belief that by doing this you will have some effect of helping the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels">fossil fuel</a> industry. The only thing it does, unfortunately, is undermine the ability of the government to make prudent decisions about moving critical resources to communities that are experiencing the unfolding climate crisis."</p>
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Climate Explained: What the World Was Like the Last Time Carbon Dioxide Levels Were at 400ppm
12 July
Climate
Marco Bottigelli / Moment / Getty Images
By James Shulmeister
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.
If you have a question you'd like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz
What was the climate and sea level like at times in Earth’s history when carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 400ppm?
<p>The last time global carbon dioxide levels were consistently at or above 400 parts per million (ppm) was around <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14145" target="_blank">four million years ago</a> during a geological period known as the <a href="http://www.geologypage.com/2014/05/pliocene-epoch.html" target="_blank">Pliocene Era</a> (between 5.3 million and 2.6 million years ago). The world was about 3℃ warmer and sea levels were higher than today.</p><p>We know how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere contained in the past by studying ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. As compacted snow gradually changes to ice, it traps air in bubbles that contain <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/annals-of-glaciology/article/enclosure-of-air-during-metamorphosis-of-dry-firn-to-ice/09D9C60A8DA412D16645E6E6ABC1892F" target="_blank">samples of the atmosphere at the time</a>. We can sample ice cores to reconstruct past concentrations of carbon dioxide, but this record only takes us back about a million years.</p><p>Beyond a million years, we don't have any direct measurements of the composition of ancient atmospheres, but we can use several methods to estimate past levels of carbon dioxide. One method uses the relationship between plant pores, known as stomata, that regulate gas exchange in and out of the plant. The density of these stomata is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/095968369200200109" target="_blank">related to atmospheric carbon dioxide</a>, and fossil plants are a good indicator of concentrations in the past.</p><p>Another technique is to examine sediment cores from the ocean floor. The sediments build up year after year as the bodies and shells of dead plankton and other organisms rain down on the seafloor. We can use isotopes (chemically identical atoms that differ only in atomic weight) of boron taken from the shells of the dead plankton to reconstruct changes in the acidity of seawater. From this we can work out the level of carbon dioxide in the ocean.</p><p>The data from four-million-year-old sediments suggest that <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010PA002055" target="_blank">carbon dioxide was at 400ppm back then</a>.</p>Sea Levels and Changes in Antarctica
<p>During colder periods in Earth's history, ice caps and glaciers grow and sea levels drop. In the recent geological past, during the most recent ice age about 20,000 years ago, sea levels were at least <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/292/5517/679.abstract" target="_blank">120 meters lower</a> than they are today.</p><p><span></span>Sea-level changes are calculated from changes in isotopes of oxygen in the shells of marine organisms. For the Pliocene Era, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004PA001071" target="_blank">research</a> shows the sea-level change between cooler and warmer periods was around 30-40 meters and sea level was higher than today. Also during the Pliocene, we know the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07867" target="_blank">significantly smaller</a> and global average temperatures were about 3℃ warmer than today. Summer temperatures in high northern latitudes were up to 14℃ warmer.</p><p>This may seem like a lot but modern observations show strong <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/23/14/3888/32547" target="_blank">polar amplification</a> of warming: a 1℃ increase at the equator may raise temperatures at the poles by 6-7℃. It is one of the reasons why Arctic sea ice is disappearing.</p>Impacts in New Zealand and Australia
<p>In the Australian region, there was no Great Barrier Reef, but there may have been <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/BF02537376.pdf" target="_blank">smaller reefs along the northeast coast of Australia</a>. For New Zealand, the partial melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably the most critical point.</p><p>One of the key features of New Zealand's current climate is that Antarctica is cut off from global circulation during the winter because of the big <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3402/tellusa.v54i5.12161" target="_blank">temperature contrast</a> between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. When it comes back into circulation in springtime, New Zealand gets strong storms. Stormier winters and significantly warmer summers were likely in the mid-Pliocene because of a weaker polar vortex and a warmer Antarctica.</p><p>It will take more than a few years or decades of carbon dioxide concentrations at 400ppm to trigger a significant shrinking of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But recent studies show that <a href="http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521027/" target="_blank">West Antarctica is already melting</a>.</p><p>Sea-level rise from a partial melting of West Antarctica could easily exceed a meter or more by 2100. In fact, if the whole of the West Antarctic melted it could <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.695.7239&rep=rep1&type=pdf" target="_blank">raise sea levels by about 3.5 meters</a>. Even smaller increases raise the risk of <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/publications/preparing-new-zealand-for-rising-seas-certainty-and-uncertainty" target="_blank">flooding in low-lying cities</a> including Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington.</p>From Your Site Articles
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