Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier, aka the "Doomsday Glacier," is starting to crack. NASA / Wikimedia Commons
Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier has been called the "Doomsday Glacier." Thwaites and its neighbor, the Pine Island Glacier, are among those in West Antarctica most influenced by the climate crisis. If they melted, they could destabilize the entire West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which has the potential to contribute about 10 feet to global sea level rise.
<p>Now, a new study has found that the ice shelves supporting the two crucial glaciers are beginning to fissure and crack.</p><p>"These ice shelves are in the early phase of disintegration," study leader and Delft University of Technology satellite expert Stef Lhermitte told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/15/weather/antarctica-pine-island-thwaites-glacier-climate-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. "They're starting to tear apart."</p><p>The research, published in the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/09/08/1912890117" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a> Monday, looked at satellite images taken between 1997 and 2019 to document the ice shelves' increasing damage. The images show crevices and fissures in the glaciers, according to a Delft <a href="https://www.tudelft.nl/en/2020/tu-delft/antarctica-cracks-in-the-ice/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">press release</a>.</p>
<div id="9e0ea" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="307392311f755bed5cb3a21f52e3dbc1"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1305597446182051841" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">We use satellite imagery to show how the shear margins of both @AntarcticPIG and @ThwaitesGlacier have weakened. He… https://t.co/nKn0nGLU9V</div> — Stef Lhermitte (@Stef Lhermitte)<a href="https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/statuses/1305597446182051841">1600113662.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Ice shelves are important for a glacier's stability because they provide support, similarly to how flying buttresses support a cathedral, International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration lead principle researcher Brent Goehring <a href="https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-images-show-deterioration-antarctica-glaciers-lead-rising/story?id=72985182" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">told ABC News</a>. Goehring was not involved with the paper.</p><p>The damage is occurring in the glaciers' shear zones, parts of the ice shelves where the fast-moving ice on top connects with the slower-moving ice or rock beneath, CNN explained. That damage significantly increased in 2016.</p><p>The researchers think that the damage they observed to the ice shelves will only beget more damage, Lhermitte explained in a <a href="https://twitter.com/StefLhermitte/status/1305599311091240963" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Twitter thread</a>. This is for three reasons:</p><ol><li>The damage undermines the structural integrity of the ice shelves.</li><li>The damage weakens the ice shelves and makes them more vulnerable to warming air and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> temperatures.</li><li>The damage creates a feedback loop, leading to more weakening and more damage.</li></ol>
<p>Because of this, the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/scientists" target="_self">scientists</a> suggested that the damage be accounted for in climate models to better predict how Antarctic ice melt will contribute to sea level rise.</p><p>Sea levels are currently rising by around 3.5 millimeters a year, and the Thwaites Glacier accounts for four to five percent of that, Goehring told ABC News.</p><p>"If those glaciers would destabilize, a lot of neighboring areas would also fall apart, causing a widespread collapse," Indrani Das, a co-principle researcher on an International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration project, told ABC News. "It would cause a huge sea level rise."</p><p>However, Das did not think it likely that the collapse would take place this century.</p>
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Penguins gather on an ice floe near Davis Station, Southern Ocean, Antarctica on Jan. 25, 2019. copyright Jeff Miller / Moment / Getty Images
Antarctica and Greenland's ice sheets are currently melting at a pace consistent with worst-case-scenario predictions for sea level rise, with serious consequences for coastal communities and the reliability of climate models.
<p>A paper published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0893-y" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a> Monday compared the latest satellite observations of polar ice melt with the predictions outlined in the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar5/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report</a>. It <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0893-y.epdf?no_publisher_access=1&r3_referer=nature" target="_blank">found</a> that the ice sheets are currently raising sea levels at a rate 45 percent above the IPCC's central prediction and closer to its worst-case scenario. If this continues, the two ice sheets could raise sea levels a further 17 centimeters (approximately 7 inches) more than central predictions by 2100.</p><p>"If ice sheet losses continue to track our worst-case climate warming scenarios we should expect an additional 17cm of sea level rise from the ice sheets alone," study coauthor and University of Leeds researcher Anna Hogg said in a <a href="http://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/4658/sea_level_rise_matches_worst-case_scenario" target="_blank">university press release</a>. "That's enough to double the frequency of storm-surge <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> in many of the world's largest coastal cities."</p>
<div id="2fa32" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b464cded4f9b3404465e4b8c04f92009"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1300528364873277440" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Ice sheets losses are tracking the IPCCs worst case climate predictions. This could mean an extra 17 cm of sea leve… https://t.co/wPdqTWef1D</div> — CPOM News (@CPOM News)<a href="https://twitter.com/CPOM_news/statuses/1300528364873277440">1598905099.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Since the 1990s, the two ice sheets have already increased global sea levels by 1.8 centimeters (approximately 0.7 inches). But it was between 2007 and 2017 that the ice sheets began to lose mass at a rate consistent with worst-case-scenario projections, adding around 1.23 centimeters (approximately 0.5 inches) to the water line during that decade, according to the study.</p><p>A worst-case-scenario sea level rise as currently predicted would expose 44 to 66 million people to yearly coastal flooding by century's end. But one of study's most alarming implications is that, if sea level rise is already tracking worst-case-scenario predictions, the actual worst-case scenario could be even more dire.</p>
<p>"We need to come up with a new worst-case scenario for the ice sheets because they are already melting at a rate in line with our current one," lead author and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling (CPOM) at the University of Leeds researcher Thomas Slater told <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/ice-sheet-melting-is-perfectly-in-line-with-our-worst-case-scenario-scientists-warn?fbclid=IwAR2s5aduvFPi61VIAg7yIvh813EBaKGyJPzQh836ugmUY3pPkm3wHGfaTx0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">AFP</a>. "Sea level projections are critical in helping governments plan climate policy, mitigation and adaptation strategies. If we underestimate future sea level rise, then these measures may be inadequate and leave coastal communities vulnerable."</p><p>One of the reasons climate models might underestimate the worst-case scenario, Slater told AFP, is that they do not account for short-term weather changes such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/heat-wave" target="_self">heat wave</a> that <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-record-breaking-melt-heat-wave-2639610009.html" target="_self">drove</a> Greenland's <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-melt-2019-2647049163.html" target="_self">record melt</a> in the summer of 2019.</p><p>The models that will be used for the IPCC's next report are better at predicting how the ice sheets, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans" target="_self">oceans</a> and atmosphere interact, Slater said.</p>
<p>The latest study follows a slew of bad news for the world's ice. One study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">published in August</a> found that the Greenland ice sheet had passed the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted.</p><p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/earth-sea-ice-melt-study-2647072206.html" target="_self">Another recent study</a>, also driven by Leeds' CPOM, calculated that the earth had lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years.</p><p>These studies reflect a new global reality: In the last five years, melt from ice sheets and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a> has outpaced the expansion of warming ocean water as the main cause of sea level rise.</p><p>"It is not only Antarctica and Greenland that are causing the water to rise," Dr. Ruth Mottram, a coauthor on Monday's study and a climate researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, told the University of Leeds. "In recent years, thousands of smaller glaciers have begun to melt or disappear altogether, as we saw with the glacier Ok in Iceland, which was declared 'dead' in 2014. This means that melting of ice has now taken over as the main contributor of sea level rise."</p>
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Earth Lost Over 30 Trillion Tons of Ice in Under 30 Years, Scientists 'Stunned' by Landmark Study
24 August
Climate
Sea ice breaking up in Greenland. steve_is_on_holiday / E+ / Getty Images
The Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years, and the climate crisis is largely to blame.
<p>The finding comes in a <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-232/" target="_blank">review paper</a> published in The Cryosphere this month that used satellite data and numerical modelling to calculate all the ice that melted worldwide between 1994 and 2017.</p><p>"In the past researchers have studied individual areas – such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctic</a> or <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/greenland" target="_self">Greenland</a> – where ice is melting. But this is the first time anyone has looked at all the ice that is disappearing from the entire planet," study coauthor and director of Leeds University's Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling Andy Shepherd told <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>. "What we have found has stunned us."</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a>, Antarctic ice shelves, mountain <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a>, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and Southern Ocean sea ice all lost mass during the study period, the researchers wrote. About 68 percent of those losses were caused by warmer air temperatures, while the remaining 32 percent were caused by warmer <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> water.</p><p>"There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," the researchers wrote, as The Guardian reported.</p>
<p>In fact, the total ice loss recorded matches the worst-case scenario predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And it's likely to get worse. The researchers prognosticate a meter (approximately three feet) of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a> by 2100.</p><p>"To put that in context, every centimetre of sea level rise means about a million people will be displaced from their low-lying homelands," Shepherd told The Guardian.</p><p>But sea level rise isn't the only consequence of ice melt. For one thing, the melting ice exposes darker ocean waters or soil, which absorb the sun's heat rather than reflect it, increasing global heating. The fresh water melting from ice sheets also disrupts Arctic and Antarctic ocean ecosystems, while the loss of mountain glaciers threatens the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drinking-water" target="_self">drinking water</a> of several communities.</p><p>"What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?" UK Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas tweeted in response to the news. "Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too. We can't say we didn't know. Are we really saying we just didn't care?"</p>
<div id="820ce" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bc5cc2d33d34204b11a78693091a1afe"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1297470664031588352" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?
Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too
W… https://t.co/cvYV9ore53</div> — Caroline Lucas (@Caroline Lucas)<a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/statuses/1297470664031588352">1598176086.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>This has been a bad summer for ice news. Another study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">published this month</a> found that Greenland's ice sheet had reached the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted. A <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-melt-2019-2647049163.html" target="_self">third study</a> found that Greenland lost a record amount of ice in 2019.</p>
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Greenland's ice sheet loses mass when icebergs calve or glaciers melt into the ocean. Scripps Oceanography / YouTube
Greenland's ice sheet has reached the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted, a new study has found.
<p>The study, published in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0001-2" target="_blank">Communications Earth & Environment</a> Thursday, used more than 30 years of satellite data to determine that the ice sheet would continue to shrink even if surface melting decreased.</p><p>However, the findings are not an excuse to give up on climate action.</p><p>"We've passed the point of no return but there's obviously more to come," study coauthor and Ohio State University professor Ian Howat told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/14/weather/greenland-ice-sheet/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. "Rather than being a single tipping point in which we've gone from a happy ice sheet to a rapidly collapsing ice sheet, it's more of a staircase where we've fallen off the first step but there's many more steps to go down into the pit."</p>
<div id="155a0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b38a21785e9ee054eea521a16171d0e1"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293931597666951168" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The Greenland ice sheet has reached a point of no return; even if global warming stopped today, the ice sheet will… https://t.co/zDrE58aKc8</div> — Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center (@Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/ByrdPolar/statuses/1293931597666951168">1597332307.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Greenland's ice sheet loses mass when icebergs calve or <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a> melt into the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> and gains it when snow falls on the surface of the glaciers.</p><p>The scientists used monthly data from more than 200 large glaciers that drain into the ocean around Greenland, an <a href="https://news.osu.edu/warming-greenland-ice-sheet-passes-point-of-no-return/" target="_blank">Ohio State University press release explained</a>. During the 1980s and 1990s, the glaciers lost roughly as much ice through melt and calving as they gained through snowfall. But, starting in the year 2000, that changed.</p>
<p>"We are measuring the pulse of the ice sheet — how much ice glaciers drain at the edges of the ice sheet — which increases in the summer. And what we see is that it was relatively steady until a big increase in ice discharging to the ocean during a short five- to six-year period," lead study author and Ohio State University <a href="https://bpcrc.osu.edu/" target="_blank">Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center</a> scientist Michalea King said in the press release.</p><p>Before 2000, the ice sheet had an equal chance of gaining or losing mass each year; now, it only would only gain mass once every 100 years. Greenland's larger glaciers have also retreated about three kilometers (approximately two miles) since 1985. This means more of the glaciers are exposed to warmer ocean water, which increases melting. That is why the ice sheet would continue to retreat if global warming stopped.</p>
<p>When it comes to climate change, what happens in Greenland does not stay in Greenland. The Greenland ice sheet is the largest contributor to global <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>, the paper pointed out. It currently raises ocean levels by more than a millimeter a year, CNN reported. And sea levels are expected to increase by around three feet by century's end.</p><p>"There's a lot of places, like in Florida especially, where one meter alone would cover a lot of existing land areas," King told CNN. "And that's exacerbated when you get storms and hurricanes and things like that, that then cause extra surge on top of a higher baseline."</p><p>However, King said studies like hers could help low-lying areas adapt to the coming changes.</p><p>"The more we know, the better we can prepare," she said in the press release.</p>
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Researchers have turned to hydrophones, instruments that use underwater microphones to gather data beyond the reach of any camera or satellite. Pxfuel
By Kristen Pope
Melting and crumbling glaciers are largely responsible for rising sea levels, so learning more about how glaciers shrink is vital to those who hope to save coastal cities and preserve wildlife.
<p>But it is hard to get good pictures and measurements because glaciers typically are in remote, difficult-to-reach, and even dangerous locations. Satellites are often used to measure glacial retreat, but these images are far from complete, especially when it's cloudy, foggy, raining, or snowing.</p><p>So researchers have turned to hydrophones, instruments that use underwater microphones to gather data beyond the reach of any camera or satellite. Hydrophones can record underwater in all conditions. Originally used by the military to detect submarines, hydrophones are now one more tool scientists have to learn about climate change. The devices collect data continuously and they are relatively inexpensive and easy to deploy and maintain in many different areas of the world to monitor sea ice, underwater earthquakes, ship noise, and even wildlife patterns.</p>
Groans, Creaks, Icebergs’ Calving Splashes
<p>Oskar Glowacki already knew that melting glacial ice sounds like frying bacon. As ice bubbles burst, anyone nearby can hear crackling and popping, said Glowacki, a postdoctoral scholar at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Using hydrophones, he and other scientists now can make more nuanced measurements of how a changing climate sounds underwater, from the groans, creaks and splashes of a calving iceberg to the changes in whale songs as the ocean warms.</p><p>Glowacki recently used a pair of hydrophones to study the underwater world of glaciers, publishing his findings in <a href="https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/1025/2020/" target="_blank">The Cryosphere</a>. He and co-author Grant B. Deane measured glacier retreat by <a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/melting-glaciers-sound-like-frying-bacon/" target="_blank">recording the sounds of ice</a> – from small chunks to enormous slabs – falling off the glacier and splashing into the water.</p><p>During the summer of 2016, Glowacki's team placed two hydrophones near Hansbreen Glacier in Hornsund Fjord, Svalbard. For a month and a half, they recorded sounds, also using three time-lapse cameras to collect images – including the "drop height" (how far the ice fell into the water) – so they could compare photos to the recordings. The team created a formula to represent the relationship between the size of a piece of ice falling from a glacier and the sound it makes underwater, also accounting for the pieces of ice falling from varying heights. (Hear an example of the sound an iceberg makes while calving <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-248456662/iceberg-calving-hansbreen-glacier" target="_blank">here</a>.)</p><p>"Iceberg calving, defined as mechanical loss of ice from the edges of glaciers and ice shelves, is thought to be one of the most important components of the total ice loss," they note in their paper. They mention also that 32-40% of the Greenland ice sheet's mass loss is from solid ice discharge. However, Glowacki says it isn't just one process leading to glaciers losing mass: Surface melt, calving, and under-sea melting are all contributing factors.</p><p>Satellites are often used to measure glacial retreat, but the images they provide don't present a complete picture, and Glowacki and other scientists say they hope hydrophones can help provide more answers. Given that glaciers are typically remote and difficult to reach, collecting data remotely is key. Hydrophones, on the other hand, can record underwater in all these conditions.</p><p>Hydrophones also collect acoustic data and smaller events hard to find from a satellite image. "In a single day, [you] can have 100 or 200 icebergs breaking off from a single glacier," Glowacki says.</p><p>Glowacki says he and his team plan to further study iceberg calving, including studying additional glaciers, and collecting data for longer periods of time.</p>
Unlocking Information About Antarctic Ice Shelf
<p>Other researchers also are using hydrophones to learn more about crumbling glaciers. Bob Dziak, research oceanographer with the NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory <a href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/acoustics" target="_blank">acoustics research group</a>, captured a massive calving event of the Nansen Ice Shelf in Antarctica with a hydrophone. He published the results with colleagues in <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2019.00183/full" target="_blank">Frontiers in Earth Science</a></p><p>On April 7, 2016, satellite images showed a massive calving event had occurred on the ice shelf. The paper described it as the "first large scale calving event in >30 years."</p><p>However, once Dziak and colleagues delved into the data from three hydrophones deployed 60 kilometers east of the ice shelf, they uncovered a series of "icequakes" from January to early March 2016. He and other researchers believe that much of the ice actually broke free in mid-January to February, but it remained in the same location until an April storm – which their paper described as the "largest low-pressure storm recorded in the previous seven months" – broke the ice free.</p><p>"We suspected that the icebergs broke apart but remained in place – kind of pinned in place – until a major storm with high winds passed through the area and, finally, it was that last push that pushed the icebergs out to sea," Dziak says.</p><p>He and his co-authors wrote that "fortuitous timing and proximity of the hydrophone deployment presented a rare opportunity to study cryogenic signals and ocean ambient sounds of a large-scale ice shelf calving and iceberg formation event."</p>Listening to Songs of Humpback Whales
<p><a href="https://www.mbari.org/" target="_blank">Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute</a> studies the ocean, including its acoustics. One of the institute's projects involves examining the soundscape of California's Monterey Bay, including sounds from animals, humans, weather, and geologic processes like earthquakes. The researchers once even recorded an under-sea landslide. They also focus on recording and analyzing the <a href="http://www.mbari.org/humpback-song/" target="_blank">songs of humpback whales</a>. Male humpback whales' songs can be over 15 minutes in length, and they can be repeated for long periods of time – even hours. Listening to these songs and analyzing them can provide unique insights into the lives of these complex animals.</p><p>"Any time we want to study marine mammals, sound gives us a window into their lives because they use sound for all of their essential life activities, really," says institute biological oceanographer John Ryan. "Communication, foraging, reproduction, navigation – depending on the species, of course."</p><p>Previously, scientists had thought singing occurred only during courtship and mating, but now they think whales may also use song while migrating and hunting. They know song has a crucial role in the whales' lives.</p><p>"There's a whole other dimension to humpback whale song," Ryan says. "It is a mode of cultural transmission in this species. They learn songs from each other. They share songs as a population, and when populations mix and mingle, they learn new ideas, they explore with their song, improvise, and it's a real essential part of their culture."</p><p>In 2015, institute researchers placed a hydrophone 3,000 feet deep, recording and analyzing humpback whale songs. Between 2015 and 2018, they collected over 26,000 hours of audio, which they used computer software to analyze. The researchers determined "peak singing season" in November through January, and they found most singing occurred at night. During peak season, songs were heard around 70% of the night.</p><p>However, from September 2015 to May 2016, they detected whales singing only about 11% of the time. Those months correlated with a period when the water temperature was especially high, depleting stocks of vital food sources like anchovies and krill, and correlating also with a toxic algal bloom. Scientists think the whales may have had to devote more time and energy to finding food, leaving less for singing. As researchers continue to study the worlds' oceans, they will undoubtedly learn more about underwater mysteries.</p><p>Listen to MBARI's live stream from beneath the bay <a href="https://www.mbari.org/soundscape-listening-room/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/hearing-the-under-sea-whispers-of-a-warming-climate/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>
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A man walks on pink snow at the Presena glacier near Pellizzano, Italy on July 4, 2020. MIGUEL MEDINA / AFP via Getty Images
In a troubling sign for the future of the Italian Alps, the snow and ice in a glacier is turning pink due to the growth of snow-melting algae, according to scientists studying the pink ice phenomenon, as CNN reported.
<p>The algae will make the snow melt faster. The salmon-hue that has tinged the snow is from algae that carry carotenoid pigment, which reflects the distinctive color. While most algae thrive in warm freshwaters, these are known as cryophilic, meaning they thrive in colder temperatures, where they create the "watermelon snow" effect, according to <a href="https://www.salon.com/2020/07/06/bizarre-pink-snow-in-the-alps-is-actually-a-bad-omen-for-earth/" target="_blank">Salon</a>.</p><p>The concern is that the algal bloom on the snow will accelerate the effects of the climate crisis. As <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/06/algae-turns-italian-alps-pink-prompting-concerns-over-melting" target="_blank">Agence France-Presse</a> (AFP) reported the plant, known as <em>Ancylonema nordenskioeldii</em>, is often found in Greenland's so-called Dark Zone, where the ice is also melting.</p><p>Normally ice reflects more than 80 percent of the sun's radiation back into the atmosphere, but as algae appear, they darken the ice so that it absorbs the heat and melts more quickly, according to AFP.</p>
<p>"Everything that darkens the snow causes it to melt because it accelerates the absorption of radiation," said Biagio Di Mauro of Italy's National Research Council to AFP. "We are trying to quantify the effect of other phenomena besides the human one on the overheating of the Earth." He noted that the presence of tourists could also have an effect in weakening the snow.</p><p>Di Mauro told CNN that the spring and summer had very little snowfall high in the Alps, which has seen higher than average temperatures. "This creates the perfect environment for the algae to grow," he added.</p><p>Di Mauro emphasized that the algal bloom is particularly bad news for the glaciers, which may see a rapid melting. That would be in line with glaciers around the world that are starting to fade away as global heating continues to push up atmospheric temperatures.</p>
<p>"A classic reminder of how uncertainty is not our friend," said Dr. Michael E. Mann, a distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State University, to Salon by email. "In this case, we're seeing an amplifying feedback wherein biological darkening (due to Algae growing on the surface of melting ice), leads to more solar absorption by the ice and even faster melting. We call this a 'positive feedback' but it is anything but positive. It reflects a process which is leading to faster melting of the glaciers than our simple models predict."</p><p>As CNN noted, Di Mauro has come across cold temperature algae before. He has previously studied the Morteratsch glacier in Switzerland, where an algae called <em>Ancylonema nordenskioeldii</em> has turned the ice purple.</p>
<p>Ken Caldeira, an atmospheric scientist at the Carnegie Institution for Science's Department of Global Ecology, told Salon that "photosynthetic organisms are designed to absorb sunlight. Some small fraction of the energy in sunlight goes into making carbohydrates but most of it goes into heating the organism and its local environment. If that organism is living in snow, the snow is likely to melt."</p><p>This algae has also been found in southwestern Greenland as well in as the Andes and Himalayas. Globally, glaciers are melting. A <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/antarctic-glacier-sea-level-rise-2645574336.html" target="_self">March study</a> found an Antarctic glacier had retreated three miles and can cause five feet of sea level rise if it melts completely. A <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/himalayan-glacier-melt-doubled-2638927563.html" target="_self">2019 study</a> found that Himalayan glacier melt has doubled since 2000. Additionally, conservationists and scientists have held funerals for glaciers in <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/iceland-glacier-funeral-2639890762.html" target="_self">Iceland</a> and the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/swiss-alps-pizol-glacier-funeral-2640547054.html" target="_self">Swiss Alps</a>.</p>
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Antarctica and Greenland Raised Sea Levels More Than Half an Inch in Just 16 Years, New NASA Data Shows
01 May
Climate
Greenland's fast-melting Kangerdlugssup glacier. NASA / Jim Yungel
Greenland and Antarctica have raised global sea levels by more than half an inch in the last 16 years, according to data from the most advanced laser that the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has ever launched into space to observe the earth.
<p>While the figures themselves are consistent with other studies, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/climate/antarctica-ice-climate-change.html?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_MBE_p_20200501&instance_id=18124&nl=morning-briefing&regi_id=88631294&section=whatElse&segment_id=26351&te=1&user_id=d8eb7cee9d3c5ab39515239b6ec54d19" target="_blank">The New York Times pointed out</a>, the satellite laser allows researchers a much more precise picture of how polar ice is changing over time, which helps determine the role of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> and plan for future <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>.</p><p>"We've all been waiting for this new dataset," Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory research professor Robin Bell <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/04/30/848398472/antarctica-and-greenland-are-losing-thousands-of-gigatons-of-ice-thats-a-lot?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&fbclid=IwAR2t-fTSchEfWMFJe_R91Jy86koAqTfmGlewTvq9eG6z0lzpdM1w8GjogGY" target="_blank">told NPR</a>.</p>
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<p>The study, <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/29/science.aaz5845" target="_blank">published in Science Thursday</a>, combines data from two NASA satellites: the original Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), which took measurements from 2003 to 2009, and ICESat-2, launched in 2018. The two satellites allowed researchers to measure changes in ice mass from 2003 to 2019, and to calculate that Greenland and Antarctica contributed 0.55 inches to sea level rise during that time. That's around a third of the global total, which was also driven by the expansion of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans" target="_self">oceans</a> as they warm, NPR explained.</p><p>"If you watch a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glacier</a> or ice sheet for a month, or a year, you're not going to learn much about what the climate is doing to it," University of Washington glaciologist and lead study author Ben Smith said in a <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2981/nasa-space-laser-missions-map-16-years-of-ice-sheet-loss/?fbclid=IwAR0vi9r5VM03t_d9hDoceJSHkeEsxDtzOIApDy3x4TniEx4UowY02_j-bSM" target="_blank">NASA press release</a>. "We now have a 16-year span between ICESat and ICESat-2 and can be much more confident that the changes we're seeing in the ice have to do with the long-term changes in the climate."</p>
<p>The data also revealed that Greenland's ice sheet lost an average of 200 gigatons of ice per year and Antarctica's lost an average of 118. That's more than 5,000 gigatons total, NPR reported. To put that in perspective, one gigaton is enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-sized swimming pools.</p><p>But the satellite data also helped show how the ice was being lost. In Antarctica, the East actually gained mass, probably because of increased precipitation, The New York Times reported. But this was offset by losses in West Antarctica and the Antarctic Peninsula. In West Antarctica, 30 percent of that loss was due to floating ice, which either calves icebergs or melts from below due to warm ocean water. While this ice cannot contribute directly to sea level rise because it is already floating, its loss destabilizes the so-called "grounded ice" that can.</p><p>"It's like an apple tart and the ice shelves are like the wall of pastry around the edges of the tart," Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California-San Diego glaciologist and study coauthor Helen Fricker explained to NPR. "And if those walls are too thin or they're not baked well enough, then the filling will ooze out."</p><p>In Greenland, two thirds of the ice loss was due to surface melting, something that rarely occurs in Antarctica, The New York Times said. Greenland also lost a lot of mass from its coastal glaciers, according to NASA. Its Kangerdulgssuaq and Jakobshavn glaciers have shrunken by 14 to 20 feet per year.</p>
<p>NASA explained why its satellites were able to provide such a detailed portrait:</p><blockquote>ICESat-2's instrument is a laser altimeter, which sends 10,000 pulses of light a second down to Earth's surface, and times how long it takes to return to the satellite – to within a billionth of a second. The instrument's pulse rate allows for a dense map of measurement over the ice sheet; its high precision allows scientists to determine how much an ice sheet changes over a year to within an inch.<br><br>The researchers took tracks of earlier ICESat measurements and overlaid the tracks of ICESat-2 measurements from 2019, and took data from the tens of millions of sites where the two data sets intersected. That gave them the elevation change, but to get to how much ice has been lost, the researchers developed a new model to convert volume change to mass change. The model calculated densities across the ice sheets to allow the total mass loss to be calculated.</blockquote><p>This level of detail is essential for helping coastal residents and governments plan for sea level rise, which is expected to reach two to six feet by 2100, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/climate-change-antarctica-greenland-ice-melt-raised-sea-levels-by-half-inch-in-last-16-years.html" target="_blank">according to CNBC</a>.</p><p>"Our goal is to be able to tell every coastal community what they can plan on [in] the coming decades," Bell told NPR. "To be able to do that, we both need to measure how the ice is changing but also understand better why it's changing."</p>
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Antarctica before and after its hottest day on record Feb. 6. NASA Earth Observatory images by Joshua Stevens, using Landsat data from the U.S. Geological Survey and GEOS-5 data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC.
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Penguins are seen near the Great Wall station in Antarctica, Feb. 9, days after the continent measured its hottest temperature on record at nearly 65 degrees Fahrenheit. Xinhua / Liu Shiping / Getty Images
By Richard Connor
Scientists have recorded Antarctica's first documented heat wave, warning that animal and plant life on the isolated continent could be drastically affected by climate change.
<p>Australian Antarctic Program researchers recorded the heat wave event at Casey research station in East Antarctica during the 2019-2020 southern hemisphere summer.<em></em></p>
<p>Findings by the team were published in the Global Change Biology journal on Tuesday, with authors warning that the changes could affect global weather patterns.</p><p>Between January 23 and 26, a research team at Casey — directly south of Perth in western Australia — recorded the highest maximum and minimum temperatures ever seen at the base.</p>
<p>During the period, minimum temperatures were higher than zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) while the maximums peaked above 7.5 degrees.</p><p>On January 24, the Casey team recorded a record high temperature of 9.2 degrees Celsius, 6.9 degrees higher than the station's mean maximum.</p><p>Heat waves are classified as three consecutive days where very high maximum and minimum temperatures are recorded.<br></p><p><span></span>At the same time, record high temperatures were also reported on the other side of the continent, on the Antarctic Peninsula. Last month, <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/antarctica-records-continents-hottest-temperature-ever/a-52295518" target="_blank">the highest ever temperature — 18.3 degrees — was recorded at the Argentinian research station Esperanza Base</a>.</p>
Global Impact on Climate
<p>The authors of the study said the local effects of climate change could have a global impact.</p><p>"Antarctica may be isolated from the rest of the continents by the Southern Ocean, but it has worldwide impacts," they said.</p><p>"It drives the global ocean conveyor belt, a constant system of deep-ocean circulation which transfers oceanic heat around the planet, and its melting ice sheet adds to global sea-level rise."</p><p>Co-author Dana Bergstrom said the hot summer could affect local populations positively at first, but could also lead to drought and heat stress on species adapted for the cold.</p><p>"Most life exists in small ice-free oases in Antarctica, and depends on melting snow and ice for their water supply," said Bergstrom, a principal scientist at the Australian Antarctic Division.</p><p>While an increase in meltwater flooding associated with higher temperatures could provide extra water to such ecosystems – helping them on a short-term basis - it could also dislodge plants and radically change the composition of communities of invertebrates and microbes.</p><p>"Based on our experience from previous anomalous hot summers in Antarctica we can expect a multitude of biological impacts to be reported in coming years, illustrating how climate change is impacting even the most remote areas of the planet," the study said.</p><p>Contributors to the research came from Australia's University of Wollongong, the University of Tasmania and the government agency Australian Antarctic Division.</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/antarctica-experiences-first-known-heat-wave/a-52963959?maca=en-VAM_volltext_ecowatch-28485-html-copypaste" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Antarctica's Denman Glacier. NASA
Antarctica's Denman Canyon is the deepest gorge on the Earth's surface, and, if the ice inside it melted, it could raise sea levels by almost five feet.
<p>Now, research published in <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019GL086291" target="_blank">Geophysical Research Letters</a> Monday looked at how close that might be to happening and found that the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glacier</a> had retreated five kilometers (approximately three miles) in the last 22 years, according to a <a href="https://news.uci.edu/2020/03/23/east-antarcticas-denman-glacier-has-retreated-almost-3-miles-over-last-22-years/" target="_blank">University of California Irvine (UCI) press release</a>.</p><p>"If warm water continues to induce high rates of ice melt near the glacier grounding zone, the potential exists for Denman Glacier to undergo a rapid and irreversible retreat, with major consequences for <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>," the researchers concluded.</p><p>The study, carried out by scientists at UCI and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory, is the most detailed of the glacier to date. It found that it has lost 268 billion tons of ice between 1979 and 2017. It also noticed that the glacier's grounding line ― the point where the ice begins to flow into the ocean ― had retreated asymmetrically, falling back mostly on the Western side.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52007637" target="_blank">BBC News</a> explained why:</p><blockquote>The reason, the scientists can now determine, is a buried ridge under the eastern flank which is pinning and protecting that side of the glacier. In contrast, the western flank features a narrow but sizeable trough that would allow warm ocean water to erode the grounding line and push it backwards.<br><br>This potentially is an Achilles heel. The further inland the glacier reaches, the deeper its bed - which is a geometry that has been demonstrated to favour more and more melting. If a lot of warm ocean water can find its way to the front of Denman, the opportunity is there to melt out its ice in a significant way.</blockquote><p>NASA's Dr. Virginia Brancato told BBC News it was impossible to say how fast that ice would melt and that the narrowness of the channel that housed the glacier might also slow down its retreat.</p>
<p>"At present, it is critical to collect more data, and closely and more frequently monitor the future evolution of the glacier," she told BBC News.</p><p>The findings also reflect growing concern among researchers about East Antarctica, where the glacier is located. The region is considered more stable than fast-melting West Antarctica, but that is changing.</p><p>"East Antarctica has long been thought to be less threatened, but as glaciers such as Denman have come under closer scrutiny by the cryosphere science community, we are now beginning to see evidence of potential marine ice sheet instability in this region," study co-author and UCI scientist Eric Rignot said in the university release. "The ice in West Antarctica has been melting faster in recent years, but the sheer size of Denman Glacier means that its potential impact on long-term sea level rise is just as significant."</p>
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Seymour Island with icebergs in front of it in the Antarctic Sound. On Feb. 9 scientists measured a temperature of 69.35 on the island. Richard McManus / Moment / Getty Images
The Antarctic region just recorded a temperature higher than 20 degrees Celsius (68 degrees Fahrenheit) for the first time.
<p>Brazilian scientists measured a temperature of 20.75 degrees Celsius (approximately 69.35 degrees Fahrenheit) on Seymour Island Feb. 9, <a href="https://www.afp.com/en/news/15/antarctica-registers-record-temperature-over-20-c-doc-1oz4pp5" target="_blank">one of the researchers told AFP Thursday</a>. </p><p>"We'd never seen a temperature this high in <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctica</a>," Brazilian scientist Carlos Schaefer told AFP.</p><p>The record was broken three days after the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/antarctica-hottest-temperature-record-2645059660.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1" target="_self">Antarctic continent recorded its highest temperature to date</a> at a balmy 18.3 degrees Celsius (approximately 64.9 degrees Fahrenheit). That measure was taken at Argentina's Esperanza station on the Antarctic peninsula that extends north towards South America. </p><p>The Brazilian reading was taken on one of the islands that extends off that peninsula, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51500692?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science_and_environment&link_location=live-reporting-story" target="_blank">according to BBC News</a>. It breaks the previous record for the entire Antarctic region, <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-verifies-highest-temperatures-antarctic-region" target="_blank">defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)</a> as all the land and ice south of 60 degrees. The previous record for the region of 19.8 degrees Celsius (approximately 67.6 degrees Fahrenheit) was recorded in 1982 on Signy Island.</p><p>Schaefer was careful to point out that the temperature reading was not part of a larger study and so could not be used as evidence of a climate trend.</p><p>"We can't use this to anticipate climatic changes in the future. It's a data point," he told AFP. "It's simply a signal that something different is happening in that area."</p><p>However, Antarctica as a whole has warmed by almost three degrees Celsius over the past 50 years, according to WMO data reported by BBC News. During that time, about 87 percent of the glaciers on its western coast have retreated. The region also just recorded its warmest January on record. </p><p>Schaefer works as part of Brazil's Terrantar project that studies 23 sites in Antarctica. Temperatures on the peninsula, the South Shetland Islands and the James Ross archipelago cooled during the first decade of the 21st century, and then began to rise quickly, he <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record" target="_blank">told The Guardian</a>. </p><p>"We are seeing the warming trend in many of the sites we are monitoring, but we have never seen anything like this," he said.</p><p>The peninsula and its surrounding islands have been the areas of Antarctica most impacted by the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> so far, which means they might indicate how the rest of the region will react.</p><p>"It is important to have sentinel areas like the South Shetlands and the Antarctic peninsula because they can anticipate the developments that will happen in the future, the near future," Schaefer told The Guardian.</p><p>If all of the ice in Antarctica were to melt, it would cause 50 to 60 meters (approximately 164 to 197 feet) of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a>. This would take centuries, however. In the nearer term, scientists predict 30 to 110 centimeters (approximately 12 to 43 inches) of sea level rise by 2100, depending on how successfully greenhouse gas emissions are reduced and how the ice reacts. </p>
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Grounded icebergs seen in Northeast Greenland, Polar regions, the region of the 79 North Glacier studied by scientists to find warm ocean currents beneath are carving away the ice sheet. Michael Nolan / robertharding / Getty Images
The Greenland ice sheet is melting faster than ever recorded in modern history. New research finds that the world's second-largest ice deposit is not just melting from the surface but from below as well, which adds a new twist to consider when predicting global sea level rise.
<p>The <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/Arctic" rel="noopener noreferrer">Arctic</a> ice sheet stores large quantities of frozen water extending 1.7 million square kilometers (656,000 square miles) long, <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html" target="_blank">according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center</a>. In recent years it has seen unprecedented melting — seven times faster today than in the 1990s — that is likely to be intensified by the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate crisis</a>. Scientists estimate that if the Greenland Ice Sheet completely melted, sea levels would rise by about 20 feet. </p>
<p>Researchers have long known that surface melt occurs from exposure to the sun and rising temperatures, but Arctic scientists from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (<a href="https://www.awi.de/en.html" target="_blank">AWI</a>) in Germany have now determined that an underwater current of warmer <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/water">water</a> is carving a destructive path below the surface.</p><p>To come to their findings, the team took to the 79 North Glacier, a 50-mile-long "<a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/glossary/term/glacier-tongue" target="_blank">tongue</a>" of floating ice that has slid into the ocean and floats on the surface while remaining connected to the land ice. In the last two decades the 79 North Glacier has seen dramatic loss of both its mass and thickness. The first-ever extensive ship-based survey of the ocean floor revealed an underwater current more than a mile-wide arriving from the Atlantic Ocean, bringing heat into contact with the glacier to accelerate its melting. </p>
<p>"The reason for the intensified melting is now clear," researcher Janin Schaffer <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/awih-hto012920.php" target="_blank">said</a>, <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-02/awih-hto012920.php" rel="noopener noreferrer">according to EurekAlert!</a><a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/aboutus.php" target="_blank"></a>. "Because the warm water current is larger, substantially more warmth now makes its way under the ice tongue, second for second."</p><p>Schaffer and her team also found what is known as a bathymetric sill, which acts as a dam to water flowing over the seafloor. As water builds up against this barrier, it grows until eventually rushing over and coming into contact with the tongue, further melting the ice from below. </p><p>"The readings indicate that here, too, a bathymetric sill near the seafloor accelerates warm water toward the glacier. Apparently, the intensive melting on the underside of the ice at several sites throughout Greenland is largely produced by the form of the seafloor,"Schaffer said. </p><p>Writing in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0529-x" target="_blank">Nature Geoscience</a>, the study authors add that similar effects were seen at other parts of the Greenland Ice Sheet as well. The researchers say that their findings may help to more accurately gauge the total amount of meltwater lost from the ice sheet each year.</p>
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Thwaites Glacier currently contributes four percent of yearly sea level rise. NASA / James Yungel
Scientists have discovered record warm water beneath Antarctica's "doomsday glacier" for the first time, leading to concerns for the glacier whose collapse could contribute nearly a meter (approximately 3 feet) to global sea level rise.
<p>The findings are part of the <a href="https://thwaitesglacier.org/projects/melt" target="_blank">International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration</a> — a UK and U.S.-led research expedition to better understand how quickly the Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica might collapse. On Jan. 8 and 9, researchers drilled a bore hole through the ice, then measured the waters beneath for the first time on Jan. 10 and 11, according to <a href="https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publications/news/2020/january/scientists-find-record-warm-water-in-antarctica--pointing-to-cau.html" target="_blank">New York University</a> (NYU). They recorded temperatures more than two degrees Celsius above freezing.</p>
<p>"Warm waters in this part of the world, as remote as they may seem, should serve as a warning to all of us about the potential dire changes to the planet brought about by climate change," researcher David Holland, who directs NYU's Environmental Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and NYU Abu Dhabi's Center for Global Sea Level Change, said in the university press release. "If these waters are causing glacier melt in Antarctica, resulting changes in sea level would be felt in more inhabited parts of the world."</p>
<p>The Thwaites Glacier has been called the "doomsday" glacier and the "most important" glacier in the world, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51097309" target="_blank">BBC News explained</a>. The glacier, roughly the size of Britain or Florida, already contributes four percent a year to global sea level rise. Not only that, it acts as a stop on the rest of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, which could raise sea levels by more than three meters (approximately 10 feet).</p><p>"It certainly has a big impact on our U.S. coast and in many areas," Twila Moon of the National Snow and Ice Data Center at the University of Colorado Boulder, who is not involved with the Thwaites project, told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/climate/thwaites-glacier-melting-antarctica.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&fbclid=IwAR177XLLQRk0TWnyrvxz9r6ubzjwCT2O28qumlzSsvaqp3vWvz7b983nhiQ" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> of the glacier.</p>
<p>While satellite data shows that the glacier is rapidly retreating, there has not been an on-the-ground investigation of the glacier until now, BBC News reported. Partly, this is because of how difficult it is to reach. West Antarctica is the stormiest place on Earth, and the glacier is more than 1,000 miles from the closest research station.</p><p>Researchers specifically took measurements from the glacier's grounding zone. That's the place where the glacier's ice moves off of bedrock and into the sea, NYU explained. Thwaites is especially precarious because the bed it rests on slopes downward, according to BBC News. As warm water melts the ice between the glacier's surface and the bedrock, the glacier retreats and the ice on top is more likely to break off.</p><p>"The fear is these processes will just accelerate," University of Oregon glaciologist Dr. Kiya Riverman told BBC News. "It is a feedback loop, a vicious cycle."</p><p>To better understand the grounding zone, the scientists drilled a 600 meter (approximately 1,968.5 feet) hole through the ice and used a device to measure the ocean's temperature and turbulence — a sign of the glacier's fresh water mixing with the salt water of the ocean. This is the first time scientists have measured the ocean beneath Thwaites through a bore hole, and their results so far show they were right to be worried.</p><p>"The fact that such warm water was just now recorded by our team along a section of Thwaites grounding zone where we have known the glacier is melting suggests that it may be undergoing an unstoppable retreat that has huge implications for global sea level rise," Holland told NYU.</p>
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Build Your Own Solutions to the Climate Crisis With the En-Roads Climate Simulator
27 January
Climate
Slowing deforestation, planting more trees, and cutting emissions of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases like methane could cut another 0.5 degrees C or more off global warming by 2100. South_agency / E+ / Getty Images
Killer hurricanes, devastating wildfires, melting glaciers, and sunny-day flooding in more and more coastal areas around the world have birthed a fatalistic view cleverly dubbed by Mary Annaïse Heglar of the Natural Resources Defense Council as "de-nihilism." One manifestation: An increasing number of people appear to have grown doubtful about the possibility of staving-off climate disaster. However, a new interactive tool from a climate think tank and MIT Sloan shows that humanity could still meet the goals of the Paris agreement and limit global warming.
<p>By itself, a carbon tax rising to around $200 per ton of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/emissions" rel="noopener noreferrer">emissions</a> would bring the world about halfway to the Paris goal, according to the <a href="https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/" target="_blank">En-ROADS interactive tool</a> developed by the MIT Sloan School of Management and Climate Interactive. Countries would also need to implement other aggressive climate policies targeting the many different sectors of the economy that generate large-scale greenhouse gas emissions. The tool allows a user to figure out how:<em></em></p>
<ul><li>civilization must change the fuel mix supplying the world's energy and boost efficiency</li><li>the extent to which more buildings and vehicles must be electrified</li><li>strategies could help reduce deforestation and how to plant more trees of the optimum species at the right locations</li><li>carbon capture technology could be relied upon to remove greenhouse gases from the atmosphere</li></ul>
Carbon Taxes Seen as the Most Effective Tool
<p>According to Climate Interactive's climate and energy lead, Ellie Johnston, "Behind En-ROADS is a system dynamics model that weaves the interdependencies and feedbacks of our global climate system with the actions that we need to take globally to address climate change."</p><p>The simulation begins with a default business-as-usual scenario leading to 4.1 degrees Celsius (7.3 degrees Fahrenheit) global warming above pre-industrial temperatures by the year 2100. This outcome is essentially a worst-case scenario, assuming that current worldwide climate policies and pledges (which would limit warming to <a href="https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/" target="_blank">approximately 3 degrees C</a>, or 5.4 degrees F) are not successfully implemented. For context, the international Paris agreement set a target of no more than 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) global warming, whereas 3 to 4 degrees C warming would likely result in disastrous <a href="https://skepticalscience.com/climate-best-to-worst-case-scenarios.html" target="_blank">climate change consequences</a>.</p><p>In the En-ROADS simulator, taxing carbon pollution is the single most effective way to bridge the gap between business-as-usual warming and the Paris target. A strong global carbon tax that eventually rises to around $200 per ton of carbon dioxide would reduce global warming from 4 to approximately 3 degrees C by 2100, erasing half of the difference between the two scenarios. The carbon tax makes already-expensive coal even costlier, accelerating its replacement by renewables, and also increases consumer demand for more energy-efficient products that become comparatively cheap as fossil fuel energy prices rise. According to <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/FM/Issues/2019/09/12/fiscal-monitor-october-2019#Mitigating%20Climate%20Change" target="_blank">a recent International Monetary Fund report</a>, a carbon tax of $75 per ton would more than triple the price of coal and increase natural gas prices by 70 percent, with gasoline prices rising by about 70 cents per gallon.</p><p>A growing body of climate economics research supports a robust carbon tax. For example, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/116/42/20886" target="_blank">an October 2019 study</a> in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences focusing on risk and uncertainty concluded that the appropriate carbon tax is more than $100 per ton of carbon dioxide, most economically efficient if immediately implemented at that high price. As co-author Gernot Wagner at New York University described their results, "taking risk and uncertainty seriously — and applying standard tools from financial economics — dramatically increases today's carbon prices. It also reverses carbon price paths over time: high today, declining over time."</p><p>Experts for some time have debated the best way to structure a carbon tax. Some argue that the price should start low and increase over time in order to give consumers a period to adjust, thus making the tax more politically palatable. The new PNAS study argues that from a risk management perspective, the carbon tax should start high because emissions will then fall quickly, reducing the risk of catastrophic outcomes. As Wagner put it, "folks in 2300 will know more about the climate in 2300 than we know today. Uncertainty resolves itself over time." In the meantime, the reasoning follows, prudent risk management requires taking aggressive steps to avoid a possible climate catastrophe.</p>
<p>However, there are limits to how effectively carbon taxes alone can cut emissions. <a href="https://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/file-uploads/EICDA_CGEP-Report.pdf" target="_blank">An assessment</a> by scientists at Columbia University and the Rhodium Group of a specific carbon tax bill introduced to Congress — the <a href="https://energyinnovationact.org/" target="_blank">Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act</a> — found that its rising carbon price would reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 37 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. That result would more than double the 16 percent that American emissions are anticipated to fall during that same period under current policies. However, the analysis found that the bulk of these emissions reductions would come from the electricity sector, while carbon pollution from other sectors like transportation would remain relatively high. For example, the resulting increase in gasoline prices by around $1 per gallon on its own would be insufficient to dramatically reduce American vehicular fuel consumption.</p>
Complementary Policies Are Needed
<p>Similarly, the En-ROADS model also shows that a carbon tax alone would dramatically reduce the share of energy generated by coal, leading to continued high emissions as a result of more oil and gas production.</p><p>Oil consumption can be reduced in the En-ROADS model by strengthening vehicle fuel efficiency and electrification policies. In the real world, this approach translates to policies like <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_average_fuel_economy" target="_blank">vehicle fuel economy standards</a>, which can mandate increased efficiency and thus accelerate the transition to electric vehicles. Projects to improve and electrify public transportation systems can also reduce demand for oil. Natural gas consumption can similarly be reduced by expanding energy efficiency and electrification of buildings and industrial activities. Together, the En-ROADS model suggests that these steps could curb global warming by one-half a degree Celsius.</p><p>Slowing deforestation, planting more trees, and cutting emissions of non-carbon dioxide greenhouse gases like methane could cut another 0.5 degrees C or more off global warming by 2100. Combined with a carbon tax, these policies could achieve the Paris climate targets, if implemented globally. However, the En-ROADS tool illustrates just how difficult it will be to meet those goals, and how many different large-scale policies must be implemented to do so.</p><p>Meeting the Paris targets would require that countries around the world soon begin implementing aggressive climate policies targeting the many different sectors of the economy that generate large-scale greenhouse gas emissions. Pricing carbon pollution is one of the single most effective steps to curb emissions, but achieving the Paris goals will require additional complementary policies.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/en-roads-climate-solutions-simulator/" rel="noopener noreferrer">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em><a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/01/en-roads-climate-solutions-simulator/" rel="noopener noreferrer"></a></p>From Your Site Articles
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