Are We Really Past the Point of No Return on Climate? Scientists Respond To Controversial New Study
13 November
Climate
A flooded house south of Dhaka, Bangladesh. A new climate study has found we could be locked in for nearly 10 feet of sea level rise by 2500 even if we stop emissions today. Yann Arthus-Bertrand / Getty Images Plus
A controversial new climate study has found that, even if greenhouse gas emissions were halted tomorrow, it might not be enough to stop temperatures from continuing to rise.
<p>The study, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-75481-z" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Scientific Reports Thursday</a>, was conducted by two researchers at the BI Norwegian Business School. They used the ESCIMO climate model to determine that, even if emissions ceased tomorrow, the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/permafrost" target="_self">permafrost</a> would continue to thaw for hundreds of years.</p><p>"According to our models, humanity is beyond the point-of-no-return when it comes to halting the melting of permafrost using greenhouse gas cuts as the single tool," lead author and professor emeritus of climate strategy Jorgen Randers <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/controversial-model-finds-global-warming-will-continue-even-if-we-stop-emissions-tomorrow" target="_blank">told AFP</a>. "If we want to stop this melting process we must do something in addition – for example, suck CO2 out of the atmosphere and store it underground, and make Earth's surface brighter."</p>
<p>However, other <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/scientists" target="_self">scientists</a> have pointed to the simplicity of the model Randers and his colleague Ulrich Goluke used and cautioned against misinterpreting their findings as a reason to give up on <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-action" target="_self">climate action</a>.</p><p>"This paper clearly may be cited in support of a misleading message that it is now 'too late' to avoid catastrophic climate change, which would have the potential to cause unnecessary despair," University of Exeter climate scientist professor Richard Betts <a href="https://foreignaffairs.co.nz/2020/11/13/mil-osi-united-kingdom-expert-reaction-to-study-using-a-simulation-to-estimate-how-long-global-warming-might-continue-for-if-greenhouse-gas-emissions-are-reduced-to-zero/" target="_blank">said in response</a>. "However, the study is nowhere near strong enough to make such a frightening message credible."</p>
<p>So what exactly does the study say? The researchers used their model to see what would happen by 2500 if emissions stopped today and if they slowly declined to zero by 2100, as AFP explained. In the first scenario, temperatures would still rise to around 2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels within the next 50 years, taper off, then rise again starting in 2150. By 2500, the world would be around three degrees Celsius warmer and sea levels would rise by around three meters (approximately 9.8 feet). In the second, temperature and sea level rise would end up in the same place, but the temperature increase would be much faster.</p>
<p>The reason for the persistent increase comes from three feedback loops, the model found.</p><ol><li>The melting of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a>, which means that the sun's heat is absorbed into the darker <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> instead of reflected back by the bright ice.</li><li>The thawing of permafrost, which releases more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.</li><li>Increased moisture in the atmosphere, which in turn raises temperatures.</li></ol><p>The only way to have prevented runaway climate change would have been to have stopped burning <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels" target="_self">fossil fuels</a> between 1960 and 1970, the model found, as <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/11/12/reducing-greenhouse-gas-emissions-stop-climate-change-study/3761882001/" target="_blank">USA TODAY reported</a>. In order to stop temperatures and sea levels from rising now, we would have to remove at least 33 gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere every year starting this one.</p>
<p>The study authors were the first to admit their findings were limited to one model.</p><p>"We encourage other model builders to explore our discovery in their (bigger) models, and report on their findings," they wrote.</p><p>However, Betts noted that their model was not the model used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and did not realistically simulate how the climate works.</p><p>Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann agreed. He told USA TODAY that it was not very complex and did not accurately reproduce atmospheric and ocean circulation systems.</p><p>"While such models can be useful for conceptual inferences, their predictions have to be taken with great skepticism. Far more realistic climate models that do resolve the large-scale dynamics of the ocean, atmosphere and carbon cycle, do NOT produce the dramatic changes these authors argue for based on their very simplified model," he said. "It must be taken not just with a grain of salt, but a whole salt-shaker worth of salt."</p><p>That said, even the models used by the IPCC show that we will need to draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to reach the Paris agreement goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, even if we achieve zero emissions by 2050.</p><p>"What the study does draw attention to is that reducing global carbon emissions to zero by 2050 is just the start of our actions to deal with climate change," University College London climate professor Mark Maslin said in response.</p>
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EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
For the first time on record, the main nursery of Arctic sea ice in Siberia has yet to start freezing by late October. Euronews / YouTube
By Sharon Guynup
At this time of year, in Russia's far north Laptev Sea, the sun hovers near the horizon during the day, generating little warmth, as the region heads towards months of polar night. By late September or early October, the sea's shallow waters should be a vast, frozen expanse.
<p><br/></p>
<p>But not this year. For the first time since records have been kept, open water still laps this coastline in late October though <a href="https://weawow.com/c9189393/tomorrow" target="_blank">snow</a> is already falling there.</p><p>"In one sense, it's shocking, but on the other hand, it's not surprising," said <a href="https://nsidc.org/research/bios/meier.html" target="_blank">Walt Meier</a>, a research scientist at the University of Colorado Boulder's <a href="https://nsidc.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">National Snow and Ice Data Center</a> (NSIDC). Over the past 40 years, unprecedented climate change-driven events such as this have become the new normal in the Arctic — which is heating up <a href="https://www.wired.com/story/why-the-arctic-is-warming-so-fast/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">far faster</a> than the rest of the planet.</p>
<p>While weather patterns at the top of the world vary, the overall changes are dramatic and occurring so rapidly that the region may be entering a "new Arctic" climate regime, <a href="https://www.ecoshock.org/2020/09/the-arctic-has-entered-a-new-climate-state.html" target="_blank">says Laura Landrum</a>, an oceanographer with Colorado's <a href="https://ncar.ucar.edu/" target="_blank">National Center for Atmospheric Research</a> (NCAR). The Arctic <a href="https://www.nature.com/nclimate/" target="_blank">is transitioning</a> from a mostly frozen state into an entirely new climate — and impacting the entire planet, she said.</p><p>Meier calls the Arctic the "bellweather of climate change" because it's a place where a small bump in temperature has real impact: a change from -.5°C to .5°C (31°F to 33°F) is the difference between ice skating and swimming, he said, while a couple of degrees warmer in Florida may not even be noticed.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNjYwNS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MDcyMzIzMH0.EaEzABAC2Xq96dXQJ91WnuuPQfSE1o8ig7Vo-HZHCek/img.jpg?width=980" id="87d48" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c0f95377ec752e87a80832136af0f46a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Comparison of autumn sea ice formation for the first half of October 2012 (the record year for Arctic sea ice extent loss) and in 2020 (second place for sea ice extent loss). The satellite record goes back to 1979. @Icy_Samuel, data provided by NSIDC
<h3><strong>An Extreme Year in a Region Known for Extremes</strong></h3><p>It's been quite a year in Siberia — on land, and off the Arctic coast. The first six months were extraordinarily warm and the sea ice began melting early. By May, fires burned in permafrost zones that are usually frozen year-round. In June, temperatures hit a record-breaking 38°C (100°F), and by September, blazes <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02568-y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">incinerated</a> about 14 million hectares (54,000 square miles) of tundra — an area the size of Greece.</p><p>A combination of changing climate and quirky weather are now preventing this fall's freeze-up. Siberian sea temperatures are higher than usual because of this year's extreme climate events. The heat wave warmed the many rivers that feed into the Arctic Ocean and also triggered an early melt-out. Without ice and snow that acts like a mirror — reflecting the sun's heat back into the atmosphere — the dark ocean absorbed extra warmth over the summer. Much of the remaining ice disintegrated. Then in September, unusually strong, warm winds blew in from the south, pushing any newly formed ice out to sea.</p><p>In the past, a shift in the winds wouldn't have mattered much. Back in the 1980s, <a href="https://news.uaf.edu/expertsguide/igor-polyakov/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Igor Polyakov</a>, a climate scientist at the University of Alaska, remembers being part of expeditions that landed small seaplanes on sea ice to study the Siberian Arctic. He described the Laptev Sea as a solid, glaring white landscape punctuated by pastel-tinged ice: rose-colored, light blue and green. Since the regions' deeply cut gulfs and bays are located in shallow continental shelf waters, they mostly stayed frozen.</p><p>But by summer 2002, sea ice was less stable, and today, ice breakers can travel the region through open water. "The changes are dramatic," he said. "It happened in front of our eyes. Now, in the summer, there's no ice at all for thousands of kilometers, sometimes as far north as the 85th parallel." That's five degrees from the North Pole.</p><p>In the 1980s, about 80% of the Arctic Ocean and its surrounding seas were frozen in thick, "old ice" that mostly survived the summer melt, said <a href="https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/scientist/dr-james-e-overland" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">James Overland</a>, an oceanographer with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) who has studied the Arctic for decades. "Now much of that has to refreeze each winter. We did not expect to see this so soon."</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNjYxMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0OTI4NTQ3Nn0.h7gfBVBOiWHjc1F6veGxzZh7NIP2Aec0YsVgoyuF26Y/img.jpg?width=980" id="f9eed" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="76639f8f14b9d48d7496132d68b324ce" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Arctic sea ice extent on Oct. 25, 2020 was at a record low 5.613 million square kilometers for this date, surpassing the record set in 2019 of 6.174 million square kilometers. ChArctic NSIDC
<h3><strong>A Dangerous Cycle</strong></h3><p>Across the Arctic, ice is now thawing earlier, freezing later, thinning and — in many places — disappearing altogether.</p><p>Thinner ice is less resilient. Picture ice cubes in a glass. Thick chunks last longer and melt slower than ice chips and slivers. All disintegrate faster in warmer liquid. This is a huge problem in the Arctic, where vast stretches of open blue water absorb the sun's heat during summer, when the sun never really sets. Those warm waters flow beneath the ice to melt it from below.</p><p>This year, the overall health of the sea ice was bleak: the end-of-summer minimum was tracking at the second-lowest amount of sea ice in 42 years, Landrum said. Measurements by NASA and the NSIDC found it was about 2.6 million square kilometers (1 million square miles) lower than the average from 1981 to 2000. NASA satellite data shows an overall downward trend in Arctic ice is averaging 12.9% a year.</p><p>This year's average global temperature will be among the warmest on record, researchers say. Current models predict the Arctic will be ice-free in summertime by 2040 – 2050. Overland thinks this so-called <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U82e8XF-5Lo" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Blue Ocean Event</a> (BOE) might come even sooner.</p><p>Many factors are colliding that could speed massive melt. New feedback loops continue to emerge, compounding and accelerating changes. For example, early climate models didn't factor in methane — a potent greenhouse gas — that's pouring into the atmosphere from <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/03/arctic-permafrost-moving-toward-crisis-abrupt-thaw-a-growing-risk-studies/" target="_blank">melting permafrost</a>. The tundra is now thought to be emitting 300-600 million tons of carbon yearly, the <a href="https://www.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator" target="_blank">equivalent of driving</a> between 65 and 129 million cars for a year.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNjYyMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMjc2MjQyMX0.aAfm5qED_d_pgl29XwQcKL8lVcGi_yuDTmpsdxSlTFY/img.jpg?width=980" id="ce7d7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="35b889b0841d11eb150720ea638a0a90" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
The Arctic appears to be changing into an entirely new climate state due to rapid warming. The extent of sea ice in the late summer, when it reaches its minimum each year, has already entered a statistically different climate, with surface air temperatures and the number of days with rain instead of snow also beginning to transition. Simmi Sinha, ©UCAR
<p>Likewise, thick ice that withstood high winds and storms decades ago, now is thin and can be severely damaged by such storms — amplifying one-off extreme weather events. Then there's "<a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-how-atlantification-is-making-the-arctic-ocean-saltier-and-warmer" target="_blank">Atlantification</a>," the increasing intrusion of salty, temperate Atlantic Ocean waters into chillier Arctic seas.</p><p>The changes in the Laptev Sea, long known as an Arctic "ice factory," add another concerning factor. In the past, sea ice created there typically moved with wind and ocean currents, traveling over the North Pole towards Greenland. Depending on changing conditions, that ice then spent years trapped in a slowly spinning gyre in the <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/arctic-archipelago" target="_blank">Beaufort Sea</a>; ended up off the Greenland coast; or piled up on the north shore of <a href="https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca/en/article/arctic-archipelago" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">the Canadian Archipelago</a>, building ice ridges that towered 3 to 9 meters (12 to 30 feet) high — multi-year ice that resisted melting.</p><p>That system no longer works as before, with the Laptev Sea now turning to blue water every summer, the "ice factory" largely shut down, and <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/multiyear.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">multi-year Arctic sea ice</a> at a record low — and still dropping.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNjYzMi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwNzY3NTYxNX0.Zuh1spCYvxt252oBj4dLJE7nbQR4xz1yCB5sJlWoK1k/img.jpg?width=980" id="4a421" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d0b74b890c99f5a70fc03f874e627e58" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
A polar bear prowls the Arctic shoreline. VisualHunt.com
<h3><strong>An Interconnected Planet</strong></h3><p>The <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/polar-bear-population-decline-a-wake-up-call-for-climate-change-action" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">polar bear</a> has become the poster child for climate change impacts on wildlife. But Ursus maritimus isn't the only victim; <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/03/beyond-polar-bears-arctic-animals-share-in-vulnerable-climate-future/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cascading affects</a> throughout the Arctic food chain are impacting everything from <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0905-y" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">plankton</a> to <a href="https://climate.org/archive/topics/ecosystems/seals-battle-climatechange.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">seals</a>, globally <a href="https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00179/full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">important fisheries</a> species like <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-arctic/climate-change-hitting-top-u-s-fishery-in-the-arctic-noaa-idUSKBN1YE2F2" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pollock</a>, on up to <a href="https://wwf.panda.org/knowledge_hub/endangered_species/cetaceans/threats/climate_change/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">whales</a>, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2018/09/dress-like-a-polar-bear-learning-to-love-muskoxen-at-15-below-zero/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">musk ox</a> and other cold climate mammals.</p><p>In Siberia, <a href="http://climate.org/archive/topics/climate-change/reindeer-climate-change.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">reindeer</a> are starving in wintertime. "<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/weather-whiplash-record-heat-snow-colorado-wyoming-typhoons/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Weather whiplash</a>" is bringing rain, in what should be the frigid dead of polar night. The falling rain freezes atop the snowpack, forming a layer of thick ice that makes it impossible for reindeer to dig down to grass and plants below; many now die of hunger. These once-rare Arctic warm spells are now commonplace.</p><p><a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/09/arctic-thaws-indigenous-alaskans-demand-voice-climate-change-research" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indigenous people</a> are <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/environment/indigenous_impacts.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">also suffering</a>. Without proper ice platforms, it's growing harder for them to hunt for the walrus and whales that sustain them. Coastlines are eroding as sediments held together by permafrost become unglued. And rising seas are inundating coastal villages.</p><p>Worse, rapidly escalating climate change in the Far North is being exported to the rest of the world: The Earth's biomes are interconnected. "You can't alter one system without affecting others," explained <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/geography/mark-serreze-0" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Mark Serreze</a>, a research scientist for the NSIDC. "What happens in the Arctic doesn't stay in the Arctic, and the changes are unfolding faster than our ability to keep up with them." Serreze, in his 2018 book framing the problem, dubbed the north polar region as, "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Brave-New-Arctic-Melting-Essentials/dp/0691173990" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Brave New Arctic</a>."</p><p>Serreze notes that the Arctic covers a massive area; it's the size of the lower 48 U.S. states combined. <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/01/melting-arctic-sea-ice-may-be-altering-winds-weather-at-equator-study/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Amplified Arctic warming alters global weather</a>, and impacts the rest of the planet, changing weather, ocean patterns and the jet stream.</p><p>Intense storms, droughts and heat waves — once every 100- or 500-year extreme weather events — are now occurring regularly around the globe, with devastating impacts on people, economies, and ecosystems. This year alone, for example, saw massive record wildfires in <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/25/california-wildfires-winds-power-cuts/" target="_blank">California</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/3-largest-wildfires-colorado-history-have-occurred-2020-n1244525" target="_blank">Colorado</a>, <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/07/photos-show-scale-of-massive-fires-tearing-through-siberian-forests/" target="_blank">Siberia</a>, and <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/list/amazon-fire-beat/" target="_blank">Brazil</a>, and no one yet knows how this autumn's delayed Arctic re-freeze might impact the planet's upcoming weather.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDYyNjYzNS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1ODQ2Njg5Nn0.4Wo1cYXxGqf_k1sKhmmP0BR7L2vz25xSw7oV40K8QX8/img.jpg?width=980" id="f964c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4ccb27ee442373429ccf6f0ec973031e" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
A fire burning through northern forest in Krasnoyarsk, Siberia, in July 2020. Greenpeace International
<p><a href="https://nsidc.org/research/bios/stroeve.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Julienne Stroeve</a>, who specializes in sea ice research at NSIDC, adds another potential serious impact to the list: threats to our food supply. "What's predicted to happen in <a href="https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/abs/10.1098/rstb.2005.1744" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">agricultural sectors</a> is not good news ... We're going to be living on a very different planet if we keep adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere," she said. "We're conducting this blind experiment, and we don't yet know the real implications.</p><p>Stroeve is desperate to inform people of the urgency: "How do you sell climate change to be as much of an emergency as COVID-19? Except that it will kill a lot more people."</p><p>She believes we can rally. If we can produce a COVID-19 vaccine in record time, and heal the ozone layer through the <a href="https://www.state.gov/key-topics-office-of-environmental-quality-and-transboundary-issues/the-montreal-protocol-on-substances-that-deplete-the-ozone-layer/" target="_blank">Montreal Protocol,</a> Stroeve thinks "we have the ability to change the course of this train."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/10/brave-new-arctic-sea-ice-has-yet-to-form-off-of-siberia-worrying-scientists/" target="_blank">Mongabay</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Avocado
Increased consumer interest in sustainability has largely driven the expansion of new organic product lines. It's this combination of consumer consciousness and evolved eco-friendly products that has people searching for the best organic mattress.
But there are many brands in this space. We wanted to take a closer look at the Avocado mattress and explore what makes it such a popular pick in the eco-market.
<h2>What should I look for when buying an organic mattress?<br/></h2><p>Whether it's an <a href="http://avocadomattress.n5ka.net/nrJ1V" target="_blank">Avocado mattress</a> or another product from a reputable manufacturer, there are a few things to consider before making a purchase.</p><p>The first thing to know is that accreditation gets a little fuzzy. </p><p>The reality is that not all mattresses claiming to be "natural" or even "organic" will qualify for an official organic label from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). </p><p>In order to do so, mattresses must be made up of 95% certified organic materials. </p><p>In addition, no harmful chemicals can be used in the processing or production of the mattress, which is considered a complex finished textile product. </p><p>As you research, you may find that some mattress manufacturers will call their products "organic" because they use a smattering of organic products—but not enough to carry the USDA seal, a practice that's known as "greenwashing."</p><p>To find a mattress that has been certified organic, you'll want to look for accreditations like GOTS (Global Organic Textile Standard).</p><p><br/></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
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</p><p><br/></p><p>You can also look for the GOLS (Global Organic Latex Standard) logo.</p><p><br/></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg1MzAxMC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzIxMzkwOX0.TQWz8NDTzRpr4Q0sDssTj9r1BwV4cRNbgiGtn9wjWrA/img.jpg?width=980" id="73347" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1952e84d562c83064655dd296fdd14aa" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
</p><p>These two standards help to uphold the 95% organic rule.<br/></p><p><span></span>Once you're squared away with certifications, the rest of the buying process is similar to purchasing a traditional mattress. </p><p>First, you'll want to find one that satisfies your desired level of comfort.<br/></p><p>As a rule, many organic mattresses tend to be a bit stiffer, so testing its firmness—either before purchase or during a trial period after you get it home—is in your best interest. </p><p>Lastly, as with most purchases—especially in the organic space—cost is a factor. A goal of bringing home the best eco-friendly mattress money can buy can price some consumers out of the organic market entirely.</p><h2>What makes Avocado the most popular organic mattress?</h2><p>There are two groups that most people will turn to while researching a product: Expert reviewers and fellow consumers. When it comes to picking the best organic mattress, both the pundits and verified customers agree that an Avocado mattress is at or near the top of the list.</p><p><a href="https://www.usnews.com/360-reviews/mattress/avocado" target="_blank">U.S. News & World Report recently gave Avocado the nod</a> in the categories of best mattress, best for back pain, best for stomach sleepers, best firm mattress and best hybrid mattress, citing its ability to provide a more restful night's sleep.</p><p>Avocado mattresses were also named best healthy mattress and <a href="https://www.health.com/home/healthy-home-awards" target="_blank">best organic mattress in Health.com's Healthy Home Awards</a>, <a href="https://www.shape.com/lifestyle/mind-and-body/best-mattress-in-a-box" target="_blank">best mattress in a box for the environmentally conscious by <em>Shape </em>magazine</a> and <a href="https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/home-products/g29892090/best-mattresses/" target="_blank">best organic mattress by <em>Good Housekeeping</em></a>.</p><p><span></span>The brand has also received a <a href="https://help.avocadogreenmattress.com/en_us/can-you-show-me-your-aca-certification-SJOs16UED" target="_blank">certificate of endorsement from the American Chiropractic Association</a>, been <a href="https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com/consumer-reports/" target="_blank">consistently lauded by <em>Consumer Reports</em></a> and touts <a href="https://www.avocadogreenmattress.com/natural-mattress-reviews/" target="_blank">more than 18,000 5-star reviews</a> from real Avocado mattress customers.</p><h3>Corporate Stewardship</h3><p>Peeling the curtain back on the company's operations and mission, it's easy to see why so many people consider Avocado to be the best organic mattress.</p><p>The brand's products are American-made, designed in Hoboken, New Jersey, and manufactured by hand in Los Angeles. </p><p>Its factories are powered by renewable energy, and Avocado ethically harvests wool for products from sheep that it raises while also producing its own natural latex.</p><p>It's because of that commitment to sustainability and eco-friendly practices that the Avocado mattress became the first in the world to achieve net-zero carbon emissions. And earlier this year, the company announced that it now offsets more carbon than it generates. </p><p>It's also important to mention that <a href="http://avocadomattress.n5ka.net/MG32K" target="_blank">Avocado is certified organic by the USDA</a>.</p><p>With a goal of not only providing superior products that promote healthy sleep, Avocado also believes in the power of sustainability and social responsibility—a belief it backs up by donating 1% of all revenues to environmental nonprofits</p><h3><span></span>Quality Products</h3>
<p>Beyond just its top-selling mattress, Avocado manufacturers ancillary bedroom products like bed frames, dressers and end tables.</p><h2>Do I pay more for an organic mattress?</h2><p>Like any consumer good, organic mattresses come in a variety of price points based on size, comfort level, materials used and amenities. However, generally speaking, you will pay more for an eco-friendly mattress than you might for a traditional mattress. </p><h2>What am I paying for with an organic mattress?<br/></h2><p>Perhaps the biggest reason why someone would purchase an organic mattress is because of its sustainability. </p><p>According to a survey covered in <em>Forbes</em>, more than three-quarters of all participants said they <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesellsmoor/2019/07/23/77-of-people-want-to-learn-how-to-live-more-sustainably/" target="_blank">wanted to learn more about sustainable lifestyles</a>. And for at least some of those people, supporting the environment meant altering their habits of consumption. </p><p>Further, statistics show a substantial cross-section of consumers across various age ranges who are even <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/228380/people-who-pay-more-for-eco-friendly-products-and-services/" target="_blank">willing to pay more for eco-friendly products and services</a>.</p><p>One of the reasons why someone might be willing to pay more to purchase the best organic mattress is for their own safety. </p><p>Products treated with harsh or toxic chemicals can contaminate the air we breathe, a particularly troubling hazard considering <a href="https://www.reference.com/world-view/percentage-average-human-s-life-spent-sleeping-3b3e05c6a8925081" target="_blank">we spend about one-third of our lives in bed</a>. To make matters worse, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) says that indoor air can be as much as <a href="https://www.epa.gov/report-environment/indoor-air-quality" target="_blank">five times more polluted than outdoor air</a>.</p><p>There's also the <a href="https://www.sleepfoundation.org/best-mattress/best-organic-mattresses" target="_blank">durability factor of a certified organic mattress</a>, writes SleepFoundation.org. Compared to an organic mattress, there could be several years difference in how long a traditional mattress lasts before wear and tear or loss of support forces a replacement purchase. And because an organic mattress has high-quality materials that maintain its support and shape, you're likely to report better sleep patterns for longer.</p><h2>Final Thoughts on Avocado</h2><p>If your quest to find the best organic mattress has led you to Avocado, it's a good place to start. The brand has a verifiable commitment to sustainability, uses natural and non-toxic materials, and even donates a share of its revenues to nonprofits with a similar mission and vision. </p><p>Whatever direction you go in for your next purchase, we encourage you to think about how your purchases impact the world. Small choices over time add up, and we can all shop a little smarter.</p>
Avocado Vegan Mattress
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg1MzAzNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNDkwMDMyMX0.zu1arLxCzFa1-qq7Lg_nJMSuyqvxC6DIx715xpqmQqs/img.jpg?width=980" id="54fb0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0720ceac909ef550c9bb977027ae721b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Avocado
<ul><li>GOLS organic certified latex</li><li>GOTS organic certified cotton</li><li>1,000+ pocketed support coils </li><li>No polyurethane foams, polyester, or toxic fire retardants</li><li>Replaces all cotton with wool</li><li>Vegan certified</li><li>PETA-approved</li></ul>
$899
Alpaca Wool Plush Mattress Topper
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg1MzA4MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NzMwNTI5OH0.LEx4dUTi1np_XCFc1taoy9y3Wgu43HoWF3p0Q1PITPY/img.jpg?width=980" id="bff7b" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="165eaa5fed1d9c5f64cc03b51c9e147d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Avocado
<ul><li>Certified organic and natural materials</li><li>Natural alpaca and GOTS organic certified wool and cotton</li><li>Soft, plush feel that's more "luxurious" than most common products</li><li>Elastic straps to hold it in place</li></ul>
$449
Avocado Green Pill
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg1MzMwMi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMjY3NTczMn0.GynsxBf0E3Nvl0192XtWsB9-JrKywFLT7UhSwkX_VXw/img.jpg?width=980" id="a9604" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="29f27629674202517662576d32a7d547" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Avocado
<ul><li>GOLS organic certified latex and GOTS organic certified kapok</li><li>Organic jersey cotton liner that's machine washable </li><li>GOTS organic certified quilted cotton cover</li><li>GREENGUARD Gold certified, vegan, and handmade in Los Angeles</li></ul>
$89
Organic Superfine Suvin Cotton Sheets
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yNDg1MzExOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0ODE2Njc0OX0.6e0zVUOdjW0FuEC3tPvpBOvil1gN8CE3teZ8VVnwTDE/img.jpg?width=980" id="11382" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="091acb792fe57f4663a76438044b9e74" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Avocado
<ul><li>GOTS organic certified Indian Suvin Cotton</li><li>1,000 thread count per inch weave </li><li>Sateen finish</li></ul>
$349
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'The Arctic Ocean Is Dying': Grim Conclusion as Biggest North Pole Mission Returns
12 October
Oceans
The Polarstern research vessel returns from a year-long drift across the Arctic on Oct. 12, 2020 in Bremerhaven, Germany. David Hecker / Getty Images
The largest Arctic research expedition in history returned to Germany Monday after 13 months in the Arctic, including several months with its ship deliberately trapped by sea ice, according to The New York Times.
<p>The mission aboard the German Alfred Wegener Institute's Polarstern ship spent the year gathering vital information that would give scientists a window into the future of the Arctic during the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis" target="_self">climate crisis</a>.</p><p>"We witnessed how the Arctic ocean is dying," said Markus Rex, the mission's leader, to <a href="https://www.france24.com/en/20201012-biggest-north-pole-mission-returns-from-dying-arctic" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Agence-France Presse</a> (AFP). "We saw this process right outside our windows, or when we walked on the brittle ice."</p><p>The team aboard the Polarstern comprised more than 300 hundred scientists from 20 countries, including the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China. According to Rex, the dramatic consequences of a warming planet were evident in an area he described as "the epicenter of climate change," as AFP reported.</p>
<p>"We basically achieved everything we set out to do," Rex told <a href="https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-climate-climate-change-bears-arctic-c992fcfc1468a570c93efebfafd2f4b7" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Associated Press</a> (AP) by satellite phone as the expedition left the polar circle last week. "We conducted measurements for a whole year with just a short break."</p><p>The trip to measure the ice and gauge conditions in one of the planet's harshest environments cost $177 million, according to the AP, and the mission almost had to be abandoned months early when the coronavirus was detected on the mission.</p><p>The researchers had to break away from the ice in May to get new supplies and to rotate team members in order to adhere to new coronavirus protocols, which upended the mission's carefully planned logistics.</p>
<p>"Who knew when we went up there that life was going to take such an astoundingly strange turn?" said <a href="https://www.whoi.edu/profile/cashjian/" target="_blank" title="">Carin Ashjian</a>, a biological oceanographer at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution in Massachusetts, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>And yet, the expedition was able to stay the course and complete its research.</p><p>"We're bringing back a trove of data, along with countless samples of ice cores, snow and water," said Rex, an atmospheric scientist at Germany's Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Ocean Research, as the AP reported.</p>
<p>The observations of the crew reflect a grim future for the Arctic. Rex warned that if the current warming trend the planet is on continues, then soon the Arctic will see ice-free summer. He noted that in some areas that were once covered in ice, the crew was able to sail through open water stretching out as far as the eye could see, as AFP reported.</p><p>"At the North Pole itself, we found badly eroded, melted, thin and brittle ice," said Rex, according to AFP.</p><p>While the returning crew is optimistic that the trove of samples and data they brought home will paint a clearer picture of how the Arctic is changing, the results will take years, and maybe even decades, to sift through and analyze, according to Melinda Webster, a sea ice expert at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, as the AP reported.</p><p>"We went above and beyond the data collection we set out to do," said Webster, according to the AP. The crew returned with 150 terabytes of data and more than 1,000 ice samples.</p><p>"This is an extremely exciting time to get into Arctic science because of the changes that are happening," Webster added. "We need to get all the help we can because it's important to understand what's going on and the more people help out, the better."</p><p>The scientists hope that the data will help them understand how floods, fires, storms and heatwaves will affect the Arctic over the next century, according to AFP. Rex said he hopes the data will be "a breakthrough in understanding the Arctic and climate system."</p>
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Arctic sea ice is photographed in 2011 during NASA's ICESCAPE mission, a shipborne investigation to study how changing conditions in the Arctic affect the ocean's chemistry and ecosystems. Kathryn Hansen / NASA
A recent Science Magazine feature blamed an underwater heat blob for exacerbating sea ice loss as it proclaimed what many Arctic scientists already know: Arctic sea ice is racing toward its demise.
<p>Even without the blob, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/earth-sea-ice-melt-study-2647072206.html" target="_self">ice levels were already catastrophically low</a>.</p><p>"There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," UK scientists from Leeds and Edinburgh universities and University College London researching the massive ice loss wrote in their <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-232/" target="_blank">review paper,</a> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> reported.</p><p>One study from the University of Copenhagen determined that Arctic sea ice is melting faster than <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate</a> models had predicted because they use a "slow and steady" temperature increase model for the Arctic, but warming is actually happening at a more rapid pace, reported <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/arctic-sea-ice-melting-faster-than-forecast-01597759205" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Barron's</a>. <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/arctic-wildfires-climate-crisis-2646355896.html" target="_self">The Arctic is warming at least twice as fast as the rest of the globe</a>, a different study found, and this is speeding sea ice loss.<span></span></p><p>"We have been clearly underestimating the rate of temperature increases in the atmosphere nearest to the sea level, which has ultimately caused sea ice to disappear faster than we had anticipated," University of Copenhagen professor and researcher Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen told <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/arctic-sea-ice-melting-faster-than-forecast-01597759205" target="_blank">Barron's</a>.</p>
<p>The last time the Arctic Ocean saw such unusually high temperatures was during the previous ice age, Barron's reported. Christensen warned that scientists had yet to realize the significance of this steep temperature rise, <a href="https://www.futurity.org/arctic-sea-ice-temperature-climate-change-2424682-2/" target="_blank">Futurity</a> reported.<br></p><p>"We have looked at the climate models analyzed and assessed by the UN Climate Panel. Only those models based on the worst-case scenario, with the highest carbon dioxide emissions, come close to what our temperature measurements show over the past 40 years, from 1979 to today," Christensen told Futurity.</p><p>A third set of researchers also recently determined that <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">Greenland's ice sheet has reached the "point of no return,</a>" and that it would continue to shrink even if global warming were to end today, <a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/arctic-sea-ice-melting-faster-than-forecast-01597759205" target="_blank">Barron's</a> reported.</p><p>None of this bodes well for the sea ice. September is when the ice usually reaches its annual minimum, and this year's extent is scheduled to be among the lowest on record, <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/growing-underwater-heat-blob-speeds-demise-arctic-sea-ice" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Science Magazine</a> reported. The sum of this evidence has led some <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/arctic-sea-ice-melt-2035-2646947902.html" target="_self">scientists to posture a total loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035</a>.</p>
<p>"It's definitely a when, not an if," Alek Petty, a polar scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, told <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/08/growing-underwater-heat-blob-speeds-demise-arctic-sea-ice" target="_blank">Science Magazine</a>.<span></span></p><p>Unfortunately, many of these dire predictions do not take into account what's happening below the water's surface, where a heat blob is melting sea ice from below as the warmer climate assails it from above.<br></p><p>The Arctic Ocean enjoys an "unusual temperature inversion" where deeper water is warmer than surface waters, according to Science Magazine. Chilly winter air and buoyant, cold freshwater coming off the Eurasian continent help to keep the ice's surface cold and the underside from melting under the sun, Science Magazine explained.</p><p>The warmer, saltier Atlantic Ocean water congregates in a deep heat blob that was presumed "safely separated" from the sea ice, but a recent study published in the <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/33/18/8107/353233/Weakening-of-Cold-Halocline-Layer-Exposes-Sea-Ice" target="_blank">Journal of Climate</a> found that the blob is growing, migrating vertically, and melting the ice from below.</p>
<p>The study found that as brighter, reflective sea ice melts, darker water flows in to take its place. That water then absorbs more heat and sinks down to the blob, where it causes the blob to grow and warm even further.</p><p>Measurements indicated that the blob, usually found 150 meters below the sea ice or deeper, has moved up to within 80 meters of the surface. Water turbulence can then cause some of that blob heat to reach the sea ice and melt it, Igor Polyakov, an oceanographer at the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, told Science Magazine.</p><p>"This heat has become, regionally, the key forcing for sea ice decay," Polyakov said.</p><p>Scientists now think the blob has enough heat to melt the Arctic's ice three to four times over, and estimate that it could "devour the ice from below" if the blob ever reaches the surface sea ice, Science Magazine reported.</p>
<p>The process is called "<a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL088036" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Atlantification,</a>" and has already been observed in the Barents Sea north of Norway, where warm Atlantic waters have risen up to melt sea ice from below, even during cold winter months, according to Science Magazine and a study published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0772-6" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a>. Scientists expect Atlantification to continue to decimate sea ice throughout the Arctic as the heat blob grows and rises.</p><p>The downstream effect of this massive melt would be felt in ways that are still unknown. Previous studies have linked Arctic ice loss to a number of different global phenomena, such as <a href="https://earthsky.org/earth/arctic-ice-melt-changing-major-ocean-current-beaufort-gyre" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">changing ocean currents</a> and <a href="https://sfist.com/2020/01/27/new-study-finds-direct-link-between-melting-arctic-ice-and-extreme-weather-in-california/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">extreme weather in California</a>.</p>
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Earth Lost Over 30 Trillion Tons of Ice in Under 30 Years, Scientists 'Stunned' by Landmark Study
24 August
Climate
Sea ice breaking up in Greenland. steve_is_on_holiday / E+ / Getty Images
The Earth has lost 28 trillion tonnes (approximately 31 trillion U.S. tons) of ice in just 23 years, and the climate crisis is largely to blame.
<p>The finding comes in a <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/preprints/tc-2020-232/" target="_blank">review paper</a> published in The Cryosphere this month that used satellite data and numerical modelling to calculate all the ice that melted worldwide between 1994 and 2017.</p><p>"In the past researchers have studied individual areas – such as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctic</a> or <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/greenland" target="_self">Greenland</a> – where ice is melting. But this is the first time anyone has looked at all the ice that is disappearing from the entire planet," study coauthor and director of Leeds University's Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling Andy Shepherd told <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/aug/23/earth-lost-28-trillion-tonnes-ice-30-years-global-warming" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>. "What we have found has stunned us."</p>
<p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a>, Antarctic ice shelves, mountain <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/glaciers" target="_self">glaciers</a>, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and Southern Ocean sea ice all lost mass during the study period, the researchers wrote. About 68 percent of those losses were caused by warmer air temperatures, while the remaining 32 percent were caused by warmer <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/ocean" target="_self">ocean</a> water.</p><p>"There can be little doubt that the vast majority of Earth's ice loss is a direct consequence of climate warming," the researchers wrote, as The Guardian reported.</p>
<p>In fact, the total ice loss recorded matches the worst-case scenario predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). And it's likely to get worse. The researchers prognosticate a meter (approximately three feet) of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">sea level rise</a> by 2100.</p><p>"To put that in context, every centimetre of sea level rise means about a million people will be displaced from their low-lying homelands," Shepherd told The Guardian.</p><p>But sea level rise isn't the only consequence of ice melt. For one thing, the melting ice exposes darker ocean waters or soil, which absorb the sun's heat rather than reflect it, increasing global heating. The fresh water melting from ice sheets also disrupts Arctic and Antarctic ocean ecosystems, while the loss of mountain glaciers threatens the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drinking-water" target="_self">drinking water</a> of several communities.</p><p>"What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?" UK Green Party co-leader Caroline Lucas tweeted in response to the news. "Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too. We can't say we didn't know. Are we really saying we just didn't care?"</p>
<div id="820ce" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bc5cc2d33d34204b11a78693091a1afe"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1297470664031588352" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">What more can be said? What further evidence are we waiting for?
Feel so overwhelmingly sad - and so angry too
W… https://t.co/cvYV9ore53</div> — Caroline Lucas (@Caroline Lucas)<a href="https://twitter.com/CarolineLucas/statuses/1297470664031588352">1598176086.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>This has been a bad summer for ice news. Another study <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html" target="_self">published this month</a> found that Greenland's ice sheet had reached the "point of no return" and would continue to melt even if the climate crisis were halted. A <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-melt-2019-2647049163.html" target="_self">third study</a> found that Greenland lost a record amount of ice in 2019.</p>
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Arctic sea ice in the Denmark Strait on the east coast of Greenland. NASA
The records of Greenland's ice melt date back to 1948 and nothing in that record compares to what happened in 2019. The amount of ice lost was more than double what it has been any year since 2013. The net ice loss in 2019 clocked in at more than 530 billion metric tons for 2019. To put that in context, that's as if seven Olympic-sized swimming pools were dumped into the ocean every second of the year, according to The Guardian.
<p><br/></p>
<p>The new study, which used NASA satellite data to measure the size of Greenland's ice, found that in July alone, Greenland lost 223 billion tons of ice. That means for that one month, it lost what it normally loses in an entire year, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/20/climate/greenland-ice-loss-climate-change.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p><p>The study was published Thursday in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-020-0010-1,"><em>Communications Earth and Environment</em></a>. It follows a trend of troubling news coming out of Greenland. Another new study published in the same journal found that even if the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis">climate crisis</a> stopped today, Greenland's ice sheet is so diminished it will never recover, as <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/greenland-ice-sheet-melting-2647005347.html">EcoWatch</a> reported earlier this week. That study found the ice is retreating in rapid bursts and may portend an ominous revision of predictions of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea level rise</a>.</p>
<p>This new study also spells trouble for coastal cities as it may force scientists to revise their predictions to match the accelerated pace of ice melt, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-change-arctic/greenlands-ice-sheet-saw-record-mass-loss-in-2019-study-finds-idUSKBN25G1RM" target="_blank">Reuters</a> reported. The island's ice sheet holds enough water to raise sea levels by 20 feet, or six meters, if it were to melt away completely.</p><p>"We are likely on the path of accelerated sea level rise," said Ingo Sasgen, a glaciologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research and co-author of the study, to Reuters. "More melting of the ice sheet is not compensated by periods when we have extreme snowfall.</p><p>"What this shows is that the ice sheet is not only out of balance but it's increasingly likely to produce more and more extreme loss years," he added, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/20/weather/greenland-ice-sheet-melt-climate-intl-hnk/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>Sasgen noted that 2010 and 2012 were also years with massive amounts of melting and he expects more are in the not-too-distant future.</p>
<p>"The real message is that the ice sheet is strongly out of balance," Sasgen said, as The Guardian reported. "If we look at the record melt years, the top five occurred in the last 10 years, and that is a concern. But we know what to do about it: reduce CO2 emissions."</p><p>Greenland's ice sheet is the second largest in the world, behind Antarctica's. CNN notes that the amount of ice it loses everywhere will start to increase sea level beyond the one millimeter it adds annually, pointing out that planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions are the culprit. And all that warming is creating a dangerous feedback loop.</p><p>"This extreme melt kicks off feedbacks that may accelerate the mass loss. This is what is worrying, the extremes are increasing and we understand too little about how the ice sheet will respond to more extreme climate variability," Sasgen said, as CNN reported.</p>
<p>The amount of melting that's happening means trouble for the hundreds of millions of people that live along coastlines, but there is still time for them to retreat inland. The ice sheet will likely not melt entirely since the rate of melt tends to slow down as the ice retreats from warmer <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans">ocean</a> waters. Furthermore, the centuries it will take to melt completely gives us some time to reverse course on emissions, according to The Guardian.</p><p>"If we reduce CO2, we will reduce Arctic warming and we will therefore also reduce the sea level rise contribution from the Greenland ice sheet," Sasgen said, as The Guardian reported. "So even though it might eventually disappear in large part, it happens much slower, which would be better as it would allow more time for the 600 million people living near coasts to move away."</p>
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Researchers on the ICESCAPE mission, funded by NASA, examine melt ponds and their surrounding ice in 2011 to see how changing conditions in the Arctic affect the biological and chemical makeup of the ocean. NASA / Flickr
By Alex Kirby
The temperature of the Arctic matters to the entire world: it helps to keep the global climate fairly cool. Scientists now say that by 2035 there could be an end to Arctic sea ice.
<p>The northern polar ocean's sea ice is a crucial element in the Earth system: because it is highly reflective, it sends solar radiation back out into space. Once it's melted, there's no longer any protection for the darker water and rock beneath, and nothing to prevent them absorbing the incoming heat.</p><p>High temperatures in the Arctic during the last <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Glacial-Interglacial%20Cycles" target="_blank">interglacial – the warm period around 127,000 years ago</a> – have puzzled scientists for decades.</p><p>Now the <a href="https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/climate-change/organisations-and-reports/met-office-hadley-centre/index" target="_blank">UK Met Office's Hadley Centre</a> climate model has enabled an international research team to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with the present day. Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.</p>
<p>What is striking about the latest research is the date it suggests for a possible total melt − 2035. Many studies <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/arctic-ocean-ice-free-mid-century/" target="_blank">have thought a mid-century crisis likely</a>, with another even <a href="https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html" target="_blank">carefully specifying 2044 as the year to watch</a>. So a breathing space of only 15 years may surprise some experts.</p><p>During spring and early summer shallow pools of water form on the surface of the Arctic sea ice. These "melt ponds" help to determine how much sunlight is absorbed by the ice and how much is reflected back into space. The new Hadley Centre model is the UK's most advanced physical representation of the Earth's climate and a critical tool for climate research, and it incorporates sea ice and melt ponds.</p><p>The researchers report their findings in the journal <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0865-2" target="_blank">Nature Climate Change</a>. Using the model to look at Arctic sea ice during the last interglacial, they concluded that the impact of intense springtime sunshine created many melt ponds, which played a crucial role in sea ice melt. A simulation of the future using the same model indicates that the Arctic may become sea ice-free by 2035.</p>
<p>The joint lead author of the team is <a href="https://www.bas.ac.uk/profile/marino/" target="_blank">Dr Maria Vittoria Guarino, an earth system modeller at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS) in Cambridge</a>. She says: "High temperatures in the Arctic have puzzled scientists for decades. Unravelling this mystery was technically and scientifically challenging. For the first time, we can begin to see how the Arctic became sea ice-free during the last interglacial.</p><p>"The advances made in climate modeling mean that we can create a more accurate simulation of the Earth's past climate which, in turn, gives us greater confidence in model predictions for the future."</p><p><a href="https://www.bas.ac.uk/profile/lsim/" target="_blank">Dr. Louise Sime, the group head of the palaeoclimate group and joint lead author at BAS</a>, says, "We know the Arctic is undergoing significant changes as our planet warms. By understanding what happened during Earth's last warm period we are in a better position to understand what will happen in the future.</p>
Melt Ponds Crucial
<p>"The prospect of loss of sea ice by 2035 should really be focusing all our minds on achieving a low-carbon world as soon as humanly feasible."</p><p><a href="http://www.reading.ac.uk/search/search-staff-details.aspx?id=10813" target="_blank">Dr. David Schroeder from the University of Reading</a>, UK, who co-led the implementation of the melt pond scheme in the climate model, says, "This shows just how important sea ice processes like melt ponds are in the Arctic, and why it is crucial that they are incorporated into climate models."</p><p>The extent of the areas <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/formation.html" target="_blank">sea ice</a> covers varies between summer and winter. If more solar energy is absorbed at the surface, and temperatures rise further, a cycle of warming and melting occurs during summer months.</p><p>When the ice forms, the ocean water beneath becomes saltier and denser than the surrounding ocean. Saltier water sinks and moves along the ocean bottom towards the equator, while warm water from mid-depths to the surface travels from the equator towards the poles.</p><p>Scientists refer to this process as the ocean's global "conveyor-belt." Changes to the volume of sea ice can disrupt normal ocean circulation, with consequences for global climate. </p>From Your Site Articles
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Canada's Last Intact Ice Shelf the Size of Manhattan Collapses Due to Global Warming
10 August
Oceans
Eureka Sound on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian Arctic taken by NASA's Operation IceBridge in 2014. NASA / Michael Studinger / Flickr / CC by 2.0
A 4,000-year-old ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic has collapsed into the sea, leaving Canada without any fully intact ice shelves, Reuters reported. The Milne Ice Shelf lost more than 40 percent of its area in just two days at the end of July, said researchers who monitored its collapse.
<p>Unlike glaciers, ice shelves are part of the ocean.</p><p>The Milne Ice Shelf on Ellesmere Island in Canada's Nunavut territory fell into the Arctic Sea and started to drift before breaking into two large chunks. The Copernicus Sentinel satellite captured the entire event, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/08/weather/canada-ice-shelf-collapse-milne-manhattan/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>Time-lapse photos on <a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/status/1290740808170307584?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1290740808170307584%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F2020%2F08%2F08%2Fweather%2Fcanada-ice-shelf-collapse-milne-manhattan%2Findex.html" target="_blank">Twitter</a> show the satellite animation between July 30 and August 4, as the ice shelf lost approximately 43 percent of its area. When the fallen pieces split in two, the larger one formed an iceberg roughly the size of Manhattan, according to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/canada-last-fully-intact-ice-shelf-suddenly-collapsed-2020-8" target="_blank">Business Insider</a>. </p>
<div id="3f778" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="26a7b2ea20a9cef68bf0d6e1c029fe5d"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290740808170307584" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Satellite animation, from July 30 to August 4, shows the collapse of the last fully intact #iceshelf in #Canada. Th… https://t.co/n35ctDfmRh</div> — ECCC Canadian Ice Service (@ECCC Canadian Ice Service)<a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/statuses/1290740808170307584">1596571564.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p><br>The massive break was first noticed by ice analyst Adrienne White of the <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/ice-forecasts-observations/latest-conditions.html" target="_blank">Canadian Ice Service</a>, the <a href="https://apnews.com/8077f82701c655ddebc6aafbb3dd453e" target="_blank">AP</a> reported.</p><p>"This is a huge, huge block of ice," White told the AP. "If one of these is moving toward an oil rig, there's nothing you can really do aside from move your oil rig."</p><p>The break resulted from polar amplification, which causes the Arctic to warm faster than the rest of the world, Business Insider reported. For example, today's polar ice caps are melting six times faster than in the 1990s.</p><p>"Above normal air temperatures, offshore winds and open water in front of the ice shelf are all part of the recipe for ice shelf break up," the Canadian Ice Service said on <a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/status/1290045576692658176" target="_blank">Twitter</a>, according to Reuters.</p>
<div id="48af7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a601f615c13348682918cf9a52f9593b"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290045576692658176" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A huge section of the Milne #IceShelf has collapsed into the #Arctic Ocean producing a ~79 km2 ice island. Above no… https://t.co/RLLl5NjFy9</div> — ECCC Canadian Ice Service (@ECCC Canadian Ice Service)<a href="https://twitter.com/ECCC_CIS/statuses/1290045576692658176">1596405808.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"Entire cities are that size. These are big pieces of ice," said Luke Copland, a glaciologist at the University of Ottawa and part of the research team studying the Milne Ice Shelf. He told Reuters that this summer the Canadian Arctic experienced temperatures about 5 degrees Celsius warmer than the 30-year average.</p><p>"Without a doubt, it's climate change," Copland told the AP, adding that the ice shelf is melting from both hotter air above and warmer water below. "The Milne was very special. It's an amazingly pretty location."</p><p>According to Business Insider, a research camp was lost when the shelf broke apart, as was the Northern Hemisphere's last known epishelf — a freshwater lake contained by an ice shelf.</p><p>"It is lucky that we were not on the ice shelf when this happened, our camp area and instruments were all destroyed in this event," Derek Mueller, a professor in the Department of Geography and Environmental Studies at Carleton University, said in a <a href="https://wirl.carleton.ca/milne-ice-shelf-calving-event/" target="_blank">blog post</a>, CNN reported. His team's trip had been canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>Now that a large chunk of the ice shelf has collapsed into the ocean, there is the potential for additional cracking and movement, the Water and Ice Research Laboratory (WIRL) said in a<a href="https://wirl.carleton.ca/research/ice/ice-shelves/calving-2020/" target="_blank"> press release</a>. The ice shelf is still unstable and further ice breaks are possible in the coming days and weeks, WIRL warned.</p><p>Ice shelves can help limit rising sea levels since they act like a dam, CNN reported. </p>
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The Qamutik cargo ship on July 28, 2020 in Canada's Nunavut province, where two ice caps have disappeared completely. Fiona Paton / Flickr
Three years ago, scientists predicted it would happen. Now, new NASA satellite imagery confirms it's true: two ice caps in Canada's Nunavut province have disappeared completely, providing more visual evidence of the rapid warming happening near the poles, as CTV News in Canada reported.
<p>According to <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/a-pair-of-canadian-ice-caps-has-disappeared-completely-1844592208" target="_blank">Gizmodo</a>, scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) <a href="https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/st-patrick-bay-ice-caps-canada-have-completely-disappeared" target="_blank">said</a> last week that the St. Patrick Bay ice caps in the northeastern Ellesmere Island are nowhere to be seen on satellite imagery. The revelation that the ice caps have disappeared came sooner than scientists had expected.</p><p>"I can't say I was terribly surprised because we knew they were going, but it has happened really fast," Mark Serreze, director of NSIDC in Colorado, told <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/weather/st-patrick-bay-ice-caps-climate-change-trnd-scn/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>. Serreze co-authored a <a href="https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/11/169/2017/" target="_blank">paper</a> in 2017 estimating the ice caps would be gone within five years.</p>
<p>"When I first visited those ice caps, they seemed like such a permanent fixture of the landscape," said Serreze, in a <a href="https://nsidc.org/news/newsroom/st-patrick-bay-ice-caps-canada-have-completely-disappeared" target="_blank">statement</a>. "To watch them die in less than 40 years just blows me away."<br></p><p>The very hot temperatures in the summer of 2015 reduced the longevity of the St. Patrick's Bay ice caps. "You could really see they got hit. But that heat has really just not stopped. It's just getting too warm," Serreze told CNN.</p>
<p>This year has been especially tough on the region. Recent months have been plagued by heatwaves and wildfires across the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic">Arctic</a>, as Gizmodo reported. The extreme heat likely contributed to the melting of the ice caps. Research has found that summers in the region haven't been this warm in 115,000 years.</p><p>According to CNN, the nearby glaciers that sit at a higher elevation have been shrinking significantly as well.</p><p>"I'll make another prediction that they're gone in a decade," Serreze said to CNN.</p><p>Similar to scientists who <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/icelandic-glacier-monument-2639301498.html" target="_self">mourned a lost glacier in Iceland</a> and a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/swiss-alps-pizol-glacier-funeral-2640547054.html" target="_self">funeral in Switzerland</a> held for a glacier, Serreze has felt the impact of losing these two ice caps.</p><p>"We've long known that as climate change takes hold, the effects would be especially pronounced in the Arctic," Serreze explained, as CTV News reported. "But the death of those two little caps that I once knew so well has made climate change very personal. All that's left are some photographs and a lot of memories."</p><p>Serreze first visited the ice caps in 1982 and has been studying them ever since, according to Gizmodo.</p>
<p>The melted ice caps were one half of a group of small ice caps on the Hazen Plateau, which formed during the Little Ice Age several centuries ago, according to the NSIDC.<br></p><p>Serreze told CNN that the small ice caps in the Arctic are clear indicators of the effects of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis">climate crisis</a>.</p><p>"There's something called 'Arctic amplification,' which refers to the observation – not the theory – that the Arctic is warming up at a much faster rate than the rest of the globe, anywhere from two to four times faster," Serreze said.</p><p>Hotter heat waves and cold waves that are not as cold as they were in the past are contributing factors.</p><p>"We are starting to see all these things come together." Serreze told CNN, adding that the disappearance of the St. Patrick's Bay ice caps is "an exclamation point of what's happening in the Arctic."</p>
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The Wildlife from Space project uses satellite technology to identify, count and monitor species such as emperor penguins in Antarctica. British Antarctic Survey / YouTube
New satellite images have revealed 11 new throngs of emperor penguin colonies, lifting the number of known emperor penguin colonies by 20 percent and their total population by 5 to 10 percent, according to The Guardian.
<p>"The [new colonies] are an exciting discovery," said Peter Fretwell, at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), who led the research, according to The Guardian. "Whilst this is good news, the colonies are small and so only take the overall population count up to just over half a million penguins."</p><p>While that may sound like great news for penguins, the truth is these penguins are just as threatened as the rest of their flightless feathered friends, according to <a href="https://earther.gizmodo.com/satellite-images-reveal-new-penguin-colonies-in-melting-1844609508" target="_blank">Gizmodo</a>.</p><p>The 11 new colonies bring the total number up to 61 colonies spread across the continent. Now, the newly discovered birds will act as "canaries in the coalmine" when it comes to studying the impact of global warming, experts have said, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/05/world/penguins-antarctica-satellite-scn-scli-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p>
<p>The study, which used satellite mapping technology, will "provide an important benchmark for monitoring the impact of environmental change on the population of this iconic bird," researchers said, according to CNN.</p><p>The study was published in <em><a href="https://zslpublications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/20563485/0/0" target="_blank">Remote Sensing in Ecology and Conservation</a></em> on Wednesday. The findings help shed light on just how threatened the emperor penguins really are. While the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis">climate crisis</a> is rapidly altering the surface of Earth, <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica">Antarctica</a> is running ahead of most of the world. It is warming three times faster than the most of the planet. With all that warmth comes the loss of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice">sea ice</a>, which is devastating to emperor penguins since they breed on the ice and need it to be stable, as Gizmodo reported.</p><p>"Emperor penguins are vulnerable to climate change, particularly the breakup of the sea ice on which they breed," said study author Peter Fretwell, a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey, in an email to Gizmodo. "Finding more penguins and studying their movements and distribution will be important if we are to understand their struggle to survive in the warming Antarctic environment."</p>
<p>As the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-53549299" target="_blank">BBC</a> noted, the emperors' whole life cycle is centered on the availability of sea ice, and if this is diminished in the decades ahead, as climate models project, then the animals' numbers will suffer. Some models predict that penguin colonies will drop by 90 percent, according to The Guardian.</p><p>The discoveries were made by spotting the distinctive red-brown guano patches the birds leave on the ice, according to The Guardian. The findings were made possible by higher-resolution images from a new satellite, as previous scans were unable to pick up smaller colonies.</p><p>The European Space Agency's Sentinel-2 satellite was launched in June 2015 and has a resolution of 10 meters. This enabled a search for the smaller penguin colonies. Emperor penguins were expected to be present at fairly regular intervals around the coast of Antarctica, so the search was targeted in areas where none were known. "In every gap where we thought there might be a colony, we found one," said Fretwell, as The Guardian reported.</p>
<p>The European Space Agency makes these images available online, so the team was able to analyze images from 2016, 2018 and 2019. By searching the images for "small areas of brown pixels," or clumps of penguin guano, and targeting their searches by looking at areas near known colonies and breeding habitat, the researchers were able to find these new communities, according to Gizmodo.</p><p>The next step is to direct satellites with very high, 30cm-resolution cameras over the colonies to enable the penguins to be counted. "It is dark at the moment in Antarctica, so we can't count them yet," said Fretwell, as The Guardian reported. "The sun will come up either later this month or next month in most of these locations, and then we will start."</p>
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A polar bear with two playful cubs. Jennie Gosché
By Jennie Gosché
In late 2019, before the world was completely upended by the COVID-19 pandemic, I was presented a last-minute chance to photograph polar bears outside one of the northernmost villages in the United States — Kaktovik, Alaska. It was an opportunity I couldn't refuse, and as the COVID-19 pandemic now stretches into summer 2020, I'm grateful I accepted.
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU2My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NDg0NDEyOX0.ducqI5scB-Y8YGfBjJy8MH782PWfHnMc3M2N5yrh9dE/img.jpg?width=980" id="86ac9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="99cd2f84506e478d8022f6c9a3064b44" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Polar bears adorn the sign leading into Kaktovik. Jennie Gosché
<p>Kaktovik is an Inupiat native village of around 250 people on the coast of the Arctic Ocean, located on barrier islands at the edge of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. My first trip there took place in September 2016, and I traveled with the purpose to photograph the <a href="https://www.usgs.gov/news/southern-beaufort-sea-polar-bear-population-declined-2000s#:~:text=The%20polar%20bear%20was%20listed,ice%20loss%20on%20their%20populations." target="_blank">threatened Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear population</a>. The coastal region of the Arctic Refuge in fall is a special place to photograph these magnificent animals, as they congregate on dirt and sand spits of land waiting for the winter ice of the Beaufort Sea to make its way to the Alaska shore.</p><p>During the late summer and early fall, Inupiat boat owners from Kaktovik guide "tourist" photographers out to view polar bears from a safe distance in the placid lagoon adjacent to the raging waves of the Beaufort Sea. I joined one such group of photographers led by <a href="https://hughrosephotography.com/" target="_blank">Hugh Rose</a>, a professional photographer and geologist who lives in Fairbanks, and we took a short charter flight from Deadhorse to Kaktovik, landing in a morning snowstorm. But by afternoon, the sun was out and we had three and a half days of sunshine that combined with the ice and snow to create great conditions in which to photograph polar bears.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU2Ni9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MDE1ODE5M30.wlTpUch74PsdZbvOOVmlJLlEfOS3UHI9S1yb1orCbf4/img.jpg?width=980" id="f9de2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="57baaf66d893539215aba68cdae72e8c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
The welcome sign at the Waldo Arms Hotel. Jeff Stamer / www.firefallphotography.com
<p>We were out in the lagoon twice a day, breaking only for lunch at our hotel, the modest but welcoming <a href="http://www.waldoarmshotel.net/" target="_blank">Waldo Arms Hotel</a> owned by Walt "Waldo" Audi and Merlyn Trainer — one of only two options for places to stay in Kaktovik when visiting. The boat guides are skilled, and they have to be, because knowledge and awareness of depths in the lagoon is critical to prevent a boat from getting stuck in shallow water.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU2Ny9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NzQ0NzQ1NH0.8LgGTAoqcrRC2fk3XirhyPMIRAFLzpaan5NmnJ9C6Rc/img.jpg?width=980" id="4bf06" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="28ddc335167786f68044d07a092f1d82" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Polar bear viewing is done by boat for the safety of both people and polar bears. Jennie Gosché
<p>This trip we were in a boat with a heated cabin, a perk since we were there later in the season. Our boat driver, however, told us that at that very same time the previous year, the lagoon was completely frozen over. He shared this as we floated on the lagoon in open water, though ice was visible in places and we occasionally heard pieces rubbing against the hull of the metal boat.</p><p>____________________________________________________________________________________________________________</p><p>With rapidly rising temperatures, <a href="http://forestry.alaska.gov/Assets/pdfs/firestats/2019%20Alaska%20Fire%20Statistics.pdf" target="_blank">increases in wildfires</a>, thawing permafrost, receding glaciers, <a href="https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/11/21/new-report-sheds-more-light-on-climate-change-impacts-to-alaska-native-villages/" target="_blank">eroding coastlines</a> and disappearing sea ice, <a href="https://www.cjr.org/special_report/whats-become-of-arctic.php" target="_blank">Alaska and the Arctic are on the front lines of climate change</a>. It has hit Alaska's rural communities and <a href="https://www.alaskapublic.org/2019/11/21/new-report-sheds-more-light-on-climate-change-impacts-to-alaska-native-villages/" target="_blank">Alaska Native villages especially hard</a>, including villages like <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/11/25/changes-in-climate-make-alaskas-traditional-ice-cellars-unreliable/" target="_blank">Kaktovik</a>. Warming waters and the disappearing Arctic ice cap are also impacting ocean life, from plankton to <a href="https://www.ktuu.com/content/news/Polar-bears-face-swimming-to-land-or-ecological-trap-as-sea-ice-diminishes-567243261.html" target="_blank">polar bears</a> to whales. And the decline in sea ice is making it <a href="https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/environment/indigenous_impacts.html" target="_blank">increasingly unsafe for humans and wildlife to travel across it</a> to hunt marine mammals like seals, walrus and bowhead whales.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU2OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0ODkyMzUyMH0.yboTwh7hnlLyKF3hiJn3JAF_ClTFFXjxSx0bFMDvLLM/img.jpg?width=980" id="7fcbc" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="dd629612d9e0b2b3d95ca96a1fafe6d3" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Coastal erosion is causing permafrost to thaw and break off, here along the Arctic coastal plain in the Teshekpuk Lake Special Area of the National Petroleum Reserve - Alaska. Brandt Meixell, U.S.Geological Survey
<p>The Inupiat are primarily subsistence hunters and whalers, harvesting whales each summer (in addition to caribou and other wildlife), the meat from which is shared by the entire village. It is a staple of their diet and has been for thousands of years, but as temperatures warm, the lack of ice combined with changes in whale migration patterns and timing could make hunting progressively more difficult.</p><p>The Inupiat <a href="https://www.fws.gov/refuge/arctic/pbcommunity.html" target="_blank">share their whale meat with the polar bears</a>, something they have done for many years. This gesture provides much needed food for polar bears, especially as they spend longer periods of time on land due to the receding sea ice. When I visited Kaktovik in 2016, my most memorable photo is of a cub on top of whale bones, shaking what looks like animal skin in its mouth.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU3MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MDg0OTE0N30.0_0GgJUfWyM96OOfooius3AoGASWNwoUjBk40SVeES4/img.jpg?width=980" id="f176f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="babdb9d27ca6834212bc276596e92df3" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Bears have learned to scavenge whale carcasses left over from successful whaling hunts. Jennie Gosché
<p>As I returned to the village in late 2019, however, they had moved the bone pile away from the lagoon to an area off-limits to tourists. I was told the bone pile now only stays on land for a short time, and then the bones are pushed into the ocean. Eventually, this change could affect the overall health of the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bears, as many of them increasingly den on land in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and utilize the shared whale meat for sustenance during the summer and early fall before they enter their maternal birthing dens in November.<br>____________________________________________________________________________________________________________</p><p>Which brings me back to the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, as wild a place as any other on Earth but one also under threat of oil and gas development. While in Kaktovik I learned that there is not a consensus in the village on the question of allowing oil drilling in the Arctic Refuge. Climate change and impacts to wildlife are serious concerns, so much so that more than 60 village residents <a href="https://www.adn.com/opinions/2017/12/13/those-who-would-open-anwr-do-not-speak-for-kaktovik/" target="_blank">signed a petition in 2017 opposing drilling on the Arctic Refuge coastal plain</a>.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU3My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMzY1Mzk4OH0.mbTdFW-RUFS12gFR5cnUKtB7aERaAYyfBpAo7FpL6EU/img.jpg?width=980" id="a986f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a69634ab2a4cb7218e73571fb67e8825" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Oil production facilities dominate the region around Prudhoe Bay, to the West of the Arctic Refuge. Florian Schulz / www.florianschulz.org
<p>Helping to prevent development in the <a href="https://www.alaskawild.org/places-we-protect/arctic-refuge/" target="_blank">Arctic National Wildlife Refuge</a> — a place that supports the greatest variety of plant and animal life in the entire circumpolar north — is very important to me, not least of all because the <a href="https://www.alaskawild.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/USGS-wildlife-report-statement-1-26-2018-FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">U.S. government has admitted</a> it simply doesn't have enough information about the impacts of oil and gas development on the coastal plain to protect its wildlife and other values. Oil drilling <a href="https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2019/11/20/477495/trumps-energy-policies-put-alaska-climate-crosshairs/" target="_blank">will compound the devastating climate impacts</a> already being felt by villages in the region, increasing carbon emissions, worsening climate pollution and further harming front line communities.</p><p>Especially now, in the midst of an uncertain present and looking forward to an uncertain future, we need to press pause on Arctic Refuge development. Instead of recklessly rushing ahead, more research over extended periods of time is needed so that we can fully understand the potential impact oil drilling will have on local villages, our climate and wildlife like the majestic polar bear.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzU3NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NTcxMjg3NX0.vGKHDYb33sKdlDGRU9frMekl9_N8lJBALumUl58n-hQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="972ae" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="00847007e12c1478891865721f7dc0c6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
A mother nurses her cubs. Jennie Gosché
<p><em>Jennie Gosché has traveled to the Arctic seven times to photograph polar bears. Having visited the five countries where polar bears are found (Denmark (Greenland), Norway, Russia, the United States and Canada), Kaktovik, Alaska, has become her favorite place to photograph them. Jennie's photography has been exhibited in Washington, D.C., Minneapolis and Maryland. She is a member of Alaska Wilderness League.</em></p>
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A polar bear stands on sea ice on the North Pole. Arterra / Universal Images Group via Getty Images
If world governments don't act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most polar bear populations will not survive the century, a new study has found.
<p>Polar bears, who rely on <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a> to hunt for seals, have long been a symbol of the impacts of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a>. As the ice melts, they lose the ability to sustain themselves.</p><p>"Polar bears are already sitting at the top of the world; if the ice goes, they have no place to go," lead study author and University of Toronto Scarborough biologist Péter Molnár told <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-53474445" target="_blank">BBC News</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">When will polar bear populations collapse? The answer is up to us. <a href="https://t.co/Ln0XxboXL1">https://t.co/Ln0XxboXL1</a><a href="https://twitter.com/nresearchnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nresearchnews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/polarbearresearch?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#polarbearresearch</a></p>— Polar Bears International (@PolarBears) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolarBears/status/1285297991360720896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>But the study, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0818-9" target="_blank"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a> Monday, is the first to predict when and where Arctic warming will threaten the bears' survival, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/20/most-polar-bears-to-disappear-by-2100-study-predicts-aoe" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.</p><p>"It's been clear for some time that polar bears are going to suffer under climate change," Molnár told The Guardian. "But what was not fully clear was when we would expect major declines in the survival and reproduction of polar bears that could ultimately lead to their extirpation."</p><p>To answer this question, scientists looked at two emissions scenarios: business as usual and a more moderate option in which emissions peak in 2040 before starting to fall, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/climate/polar-bear-extinction.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. Under the business-as-usual model, all populations of polar bears would be wiped out by 2100, except for the bears living in Canada's northernmost Queen Elizabeth Islands, The Guardian reported. But even under the moderate scenario, most populations were likely to suffer reproductive failure by 2080, the study found.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For the first time, scientists have answered the critical question of 'when' the persistence of polar bear populations across the Arctic will be threatened due to sea ice loss from global warming.<a href="https://t.co/NW2vf3QbPx">https://t.co/NW2vf3QbPx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nresearchnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nresearchnews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/climateactionnow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#climateactionnow</a> <a href="https://t.co/6c8V2nYhzy">pic.twitter.com/6c8V2nYhzy</a></p>— Polar Bears International (@PolarBears) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolarBears/status/1285333085031141377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>"The study shows clearly that polar bears are going to do better with less warming," University of Alberta polar bear expert Andrew Derocher, who was not involved with the study, told The New York Times. "But no matter which scenario you look at, there are serious concerns about <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation" target="_self">conservation</a> of the species."</p><p>Polar bears can fast for months at a time when sea ice melts in the spring and summer. The researchers made their predictions based on how long male bears could reasonably fast and survive and how long females could reasonably fast and raise their young compared with how long different parts of the Arctic are projected to be ice free through 2100.</p><p>They assessed 13 of 19 polar bear populations, or around 80 percent of the roughly 25,000 bears remaining. Bears in Canada's Archipelago ecoregion were not assessed because it is hard to estimate future sea ice in the area's islands and channels, according to The Guardian.</p>
<p>If nothing is done to reduce emissions, bears in Canada's southern Hudson Bay and Davis Strait could fail to reproduce by 2040 while most bears in Alaska and Russia could be at risk by 2080. The polar bear population in western Hudson Bay has already shrunk around 30 percent since 1987.</p><p>"Showing how imminent the threat is for different polar bear populations is another reminder that we must act now to head off the worst of future problems faced by us all," study coauthor and chief scientist of <a href="https://polarbearsinternational.org/" target="_blank">Polar Bears International</a> Dr. Steven Amstrup told BBC News. "The trajectory we're on now is not a good one, but if society gets its act together, we have time to save polar bears. And if we do, we will benefit the rest of life on Earth, including ourselves."</p>
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