El Niño Has Arrived and Could Bring Record Temperatures and Dangerous Conditions, UN Warns

For the first time since 2016, El Niño conditions are brewing in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which means the world is likely in store for rising temperatures and an increase in extreme weather, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported in a press release.

The last major El Niño event was the hottest year ever recorded.

The WMO says there is a 90 percent likelihood that El Niño will continue to the end of this year at at least moderate strength.

“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas in the press release. “The declaration of an El Niño by WMO is the signal to governments around the world to mobilize preparations to limit the impacts on our health, our ecosystems and our economies. Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods.”

The El Niño climate pattern is a natural occurrence that goes along with the warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central-eastern tropical Pacific. The duration of El Niño events is usually nine to 12 months, at average intervals of two to seven years.

The WMO has previously called the pairing of El Niño with the human-induced global heating caused by the burning of fossil fuels a “double whammy.”

The United Nations’ World Health Organization (WHO) has said it is prepositioning stocks to help countries prepare for El Niño’s impacts, reported AFP.

“In many of the countries that will be most affected by El Niño, there are already ongoing crises,” said Maria Neira, director for Environment, Climate Change and Health at WHO, according to AFP.

Neira said increased food insecurity and malnutrition, in addition to wildfires, extreme heat and likely surges in cholera and infectious and mosquito-borne diseases like measles and malaria, were concerning.

“We can reasonably expect even an increase in infectious diseases because of the temperature,” Neira said, as Reuters reported.

In May, a report from the WMO forecast a 98 percent chance that the next five years as a whole, as well as at least one of those years, will be the warmest ever recorded, the press release said.

“To tell you whether it will be this year or next year is difficult,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, head of Regional Climate Prediction Service at WMO, as reported by Reuters.

The WMO report said also that, between 2023 and 2027, there is a 66 percent chance that the yearly average near-surface temperature for the planet will be higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial (1850-1900) average for a minimum of one year.

“This is not to say that in the next five years we would exceed the 1.5°C level specified in the Paris Agreement because that agreement refers to long-term warming over many years. However, it is yet another wake up call, or an early warning, that we are not yet going in the right direction to limit the warming to within the targets set in Paris in 2015 designed to substantially reduce the impacts of climate change,” said WMO Director of Climate Services Prof. Chris Hewitt in the press release.

El Niño’s effects aren’t usually apparent until the year following its development, which means it will likely be felt most strongly in 2024.

In 2022, the average temperature globally was lower due to the cooling effects of a “triple-dip” (lasting three straight winters) La Niña, at about 1.15 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

El Niño can cause increased rainfall in the southern United States, South America, central Asia and the Horn of Africa, while bringing severe drought conditions to parts of southern Asia, Indonesia, Australia, the northern portion of South America and Central America.

Its warm waters can also add fuel to hurricanes in the Pacific while dampening the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin.

The WMO now issues not only the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Update, but also gives regular Global Seasonal Climate Updates, which take into consideration how additional main climate drivers like the Arctic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the North Atlantic Oscillation affect the planet’s climate system.

“As warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures are generally predicted over oceanic regions, they contribute to widespread prediction of above-normal temperatures over land areas. Without exception, positive temperature anomalies are expected over all land areas in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere,” the most recent update for July, August and September of this year said, according to the press release.