World Could Face Record Temperatures in 2023 as El Niño Returns

After a few years of the La Niña weather pattern, which cools ocean surface temperatures and can make global temperatures feel cooler, climate models are predicting the return of El Niño. With a returning El Niño weather pattern, we can expect to feel higher temperatures — so high, in fact, that experts believe Earth could hit a record average temperature in 2023 or 2024.

During El Niño, winds across the Pacific Ocean, near the equator, weaken and ocean temperatures increase. Current climate models show that El Niño conditions could begin in late boreal summer, and the phenomenon could develop later in the year. 

“El Niño is normally associated with record breaking temperatures at the global level. Whether this will happen in 2023 or 2024 is yet known, but it is, I think, more likely than not,” Carlo Buontempo, director of the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, told Reuters.

In 2016, the planet had its warmest year on record. The same year, a strong El Niño event was taking place. Even if an upcoming El Niño is relatively weak, Earth could see record high temperatures over the next year. Already this year, after the end of La Niña, ocean surface temperatures hit a record high, beating the previous record met in 2016 during El Niño.

“The current trajectory looks like it’s headed off the charts, smashing previous records,”  Matthew England, a climate scientist at the University of New South Wales, told The Guardian of the record-high ocean surface temperatures.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 62% chance of an El Niño pattern happening between May and July 2023. The chances of El Niño happening before the end of 2023 increase to 85%, Axios reported.

A recent analysis marked 2022 as tied for the fifth-warmest year on record, despite the La Niña event. With a probable El Niño on the horizon and the worsening impacts of climate change, climate scientists expect record-breaking temperatures this year with extreme weather events, including heat waves, flooding and droughts.

“If El Niño does develop, there is a good chance 2023 will be even hotter than 2016 – considering the world has continued to warm as humans continue to burn fossil fuels,” Friederike Otto, senior lecturer at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment of Imperial College London, told Reuters.

El Niño events typically last 9 months to one year, but some have lasted as many as three or four years. Typically, El Niño patterns peak in winter, causing the most noticeable impacts during this time, according to NOAA.

While it remains unknown how long the next El Niño could last, it may cause global temperatures to increase around 0.1°C to 0.2°C, in addition to the 1.2°C of existing warming (compared to pre-industrial levels).

“We forecast that it will be a moderate to strong event — over 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit),” Josef Ludescher, a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, told Deutsche Welle.