A pair of trees grow out of a book that rests on scorched earth to depict climate change. vencavolrab / Getty Images
A record number of Americans are concerned about climate change, a recent study by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University's Center for Climate Change Communication found. If you're among them, you may be interested in learning more about the climate crisis and what you can do about it. Luckily, you don't have to comb through scientific papers in order to educate yourself (unless you'd like to): More and more books on climate change and climate action are published every year, ranging from grimly realistic takes on the severity of the crisis to optimistic visions of social and technological solutions. To find out which ones are worth a read, Teen Vogue reached out to 11 climate activists for their recommendations. Here are the books they said were most informative and inspiring.
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<p><strong>1. <em>Down to Earth: Nature's Role in American History</em> by Ted Steinberg</strong></p><p>"<em>Down to Earth</em> is a history of North America from an environmental perspective. It's an easy read, and very interesting. One chapter explains how we used to know where our food came from, but eventually we pushed agriculture out to the sidelines of our cities, causing many other problems. <em>Down to Earth</em> made me realize that this country was founded on exploitation and that everything we do has an impact." —Natalie Blackwelder, commissioner of sustainability, Santa Barbara City College</p><p><strong>2. <em>Drawdown: The Most Comprehensive Plan Ever Proposed to Reverse Global Warming</em> by Paul Hawken</strong></p><p><strong></strong>"<em>Drawdown</em> is a handbook for how to stop and then reverse climate change. It lists dozens of actions to not just avoid putting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, but to draw carbon dioxide down out of the atmosphere. When you combine 'family planning' and 'educating girls' from the top 10 actions list, they draw down more CO2 from the atmosphere than anything else on the list. <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-activists-explain-why-climate-justice-movement-needs-feminism" target="_blank">Feminism literally saves humanity from climate catastrophe.</a>" —Cassian Lodge, LGBTQ+ and environmental activist, U.K.</p><p>"When I felt overwhelmed at the big challenge of stopping climate change, this book broke things down to something manageable. It's like a playbook of climate solutions. I was fascinated to learn about marine permaculture, which is one of the proposed solutions. It's a method of growing seaweed on floating platforms that not only removes carbon from the atmosphere, but can also restore life to the oceans and provide an economic boon to coastal communities. I've since learned a lot about it, and I even helped lead a fundraiser that will help build some platforms off the coast of Tasmania." —Mark Abersold, software developer and Citizens' Climate Lobby member; moderator for <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/ClimateOffensive/" target="_blank">Reddit's Climate Offensive forum</a></p>
<h2><span></span></h2><h2><br></h2><p><strong>3. <em>Frontlines: Stories of Global Environmental Justice</em> by Nick Meynen</strong></p><p>"Nick Meynen's storytelling is personal, powerful, and inspiring. Every unpacked frontline is one cutting edge of an economic system and political ideology that is destroying life on earth. Revealing our ecosystems to be under a sustained attack, Meynen finds causes for hope in unconventional places. He reminds us that it is up to each and every one of us to play our role in the fight to achieve the radical changes necessary to save the planet." —Paola Hernández Olivan, food project and policy officer, Health Care Without Harm, Brussels</p><h2></h2><strong>4. No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference by Greta Thunberg<br></strong><p><br>"<em><a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/greta-thunberg-book-review-no-one-is-too-small-to-make-a-difference-climate-rebellion" target="_blank">No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference</a></em> contains the speeches made by the Swedish environmental activist Greta Thunberg — in climate rallies across Europe, to audiences at the U.N., the World Economic Forum, and the British Parliament. Greta inspires me because she says it like it is. She doesn't wrap the truth up in pretty paper to make it easier to take. Among millions of activists, <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/greta-thunberg-climate-strike-teen-vogue-special-issue-cover" target="_blank">Greta has one of the most powerful voices</a> because she occupies the moral and ethical high ground of someone from the next generation whose life is being destroyed." —Christine Essex, coordinator, Extinction Rebellion Newbury<br></p><p>Favorite quote: <em>And we will never stop fighting, we will never stop fighting for this planet, and for ourselves, our futures, and for the futures of our children and our grandchildren.</em></p>
<p><strong>5. <em>The No-Nonsense Guide to Climate Change</em></strong><strong> by Danny Chivers</strong><br></p><p>"This is the clearest and most succinct book I have ever read about the nature of climate change, the forces that are blocking action on it, and the forces that have arisen to confront it. I teach classes on this subject, and this book works year after year to bring everyone up to speed on the problem and potential actions we can take. It's funny, readable, engaging, and powerful." —John Foran, professor of sociology and environmental studies at the University of California, Santa Barbara</p><p>Favorite passage: <em>This is going to be the most amazing, inspiring, and unifying social movement that the world has ever seen. It's going to be difficult, and frustrating at times, but it's also going to massively enrich the lives of everyone who's a part of it. This includes you.… [You can] be part of the most exciting and important social uprising of our lifetimes.</em></p><p><strong>6. <em>The Water Knife</em> by Paolo Bacigalupi</strong></p><p><em></em>"By the author of <em>The Windup Girl, The Water Knife</em> is a fictional portrayal of the effects of climate change on the western United States. It includes scenes of trying to get by in Phoenix when it's basically a desert. It's a powerful, well-written story that emphasizes the impacts of climate-induced social collapse on women." —D. Kempton, Climate Reality Canada, Drawdown Newmarket-Aurora</p>
<h2><br></h2><p><strong>7. <em>As Long as Grass Grows: The Indigenous Fight for Environmental Justice, From Colonization to Standing Rock</em> by Dina Gilio-Whitaker</strong></p><p>"This book covers the 500-year history of Native American resistance to colonialism and ecocide. It contextualized my environmental work as part of a struggle that has been taking place in the Americas since European contact, and it made me feel more connected to the larger Native American environmental movement as a cohesive whole both over time and across cultures and places. For Native people, this book is a reminder of how connected and similar our environmental justice struggles have been. This is especially important because the climate crisis requires cooperation across cultures and locations in an unprecedented way." —Shaylon Stolk, Indigenous (Scottish/Wayúu) renewable energy scientist and organizer with Extinction Rebellion justice; based in occupied Duwamish land (Seattl</p><p><strong>8. <em>The Uninhabitable Earth: Life After Warming</em> by David Wallace-Wells</strong></p><p>"This book offers specific, science-based predictions about the effects of unchecked global warming. It scared me silly, and it inspired me to reflect and act." —Gregg Long, high school English teacher, Illinois</p><p>Favorite quote: <em>It is worse, much worse, than you think.</em></p>
<br><p><strong>9. <em>This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate</em> by Naomi Klein</strong></p><p>"<em>This Changes Everything</em> makes the case that the climate crisis is a consequence of capitalism, but it is a crisis that offers an opportunity to organize a new political system. It convinced me that we won't invent or grow our way out of this problem, but that it can be solved by political organizing. It's sobering and empowering, which is a difficult tightrope to walk." —Evan, Climate Justice committee coordinator, Democratic Socialists of America, Los Angeles chapter</p><p>Favorite passage: <em>And that is what is behind the abrupt rise in climate change denial among hard-core conservatives: They have come to understand that as soon as they admit that climate change is real, they will lose the central ideological battle of our time — whether we need to plan and manage our societies to reflect our goals and values, or whether that task can be left to the magic of the market.</em></p><p><strong>10. <em>This Is Not a Drill: An Extinction Rebellion Handbook</em> by Extinction Rebellion</strong></p><p>"<em>This Is Not a Drill</em> is a handbook on nonviolent civil disobedience for the challenges of the 21st century. Only a mass social movement will save us. This book provides the tools for that." —George, youth climate activist, U.K.</p><p>Favorite passage: <em>We may or may not escape a breakdown. But we can escape the toxicity of the mindset that has brought us here. And in doing so we can recover a humanity that is capable of real resilience.</em></p>
<p><em>This story originally appeared in </em><a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/best-books-about-climate-change" target="_blank"><em>Teen Vogue</em></a><em> </em><em>and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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4 Climate Activists Explain Why the Climate-Justice Movement Needs Feminism
20 September 2019
Energy
The climate crisis often intensifies systems of oppression. Rieko Honma / Stone / Getty Images Plus
By Mara Dolan
We see the effects of the climate crisis all around us in hurricanes, droughts, wildfires, and rising sea levels, but our proximity to these things, and how deeply our lives are changed by them, are not the same for everyone. Frontline groups have been leading the fight for environmental and climate justice for centuries and understand the critical connections between the climate crisis and racial justice, economic justice, migrant justice, and gender justice. Our personal experiences with climate change are shaped by our experiences with race, gender, and class, as the climate crisis often intensifies these systems of oppression.
<p>United Nations data indicates that <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43294221" target="_blank">80% of the people displaced</a> by climate change are women. Immediately <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/5-reasons-natural-disasters-are-worse-for-women-60fcf429b111/" target="_blank">after natural disasters</a>, like <a href="https://www.refinery29.com/en-us/2018/09/210051/domestic-violence-puerto-rico-hurricane-maria-effects-anniversary" target="_blank">Hurricanes Maria</a> and <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-43294221" target="_blank">Katrina</a>, reporting shows that women face an uptick in gender-based violence and harassment. Meanwhile, transgender people <a href="http://news.trust.org/item/20180308114259-otaio/?source=gep" target="_blank">globally</a> often <a href="https://www.vox.com/identities/2017/8/30/16221902/hurricane-harvey-katrina-sexual-assault-survivors" target="_blank">report</a> discrimination in <a href="https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/new-report-shows-risk-gender-based-violence-rises-disasters/" target="_blank">natural disaster responses</a>; one high-profile example from after Katrina saw a trans woman <a href="https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2005/10/10/transgendered-hurricane-survivor-released-after-six-days-in-jail/" target="_blank">locked in jail for days</a> after she used the showers for women in a Texas shelter. In the aftermath, when cities and homes must be rebuilt, women, trans, and nonbinary people <a href="https://grist.org/article/transgender-rights-climate-intersectionality/" target="_blank">also face the steepest climb to recovery</a>, as they are more likely to already be living in poverty.</p><p>Around the world, data indicates that women perform more work that is directly dependent on the environment, like <a href="https://psmag.com/news/climate-change-impacts-women" target="_blank">gathering water</a> and <a href="http://www.fao.org/gender/resources/infographics/the-female-face-of-farming/en/" target="_blank">playing a huge role</a> in the agricultural labor force of developing countries. As extreme weather intensifies, their ability to do this work could be threatened, likely hurting their income and livelihoods.</p><p>Around the world, women environmental defenders <a href="https://www.bitchmedia.org/article/colombian-women-defending-environment" target="_blank">face intimidation</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jul/13/environmental-defenders-being-killed-in-record-numbers-globally-new-research-reveals" target="_blank">criminalization, and intensifying violence</a> — even death. New research <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0349-4.epdf" target="_blank">published in <em>Nature</em></a> shows that this violence, some of which is <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/2018-grim-year-environmental-defenders-around-world_n_5bbd0b80e4b0876edaa3016b" target="_blank">perpetuated by states and industry interests</a>, <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/number-of-people-killed-for-defending-the-environment-has-doubled-in-past-15-years-e2ac6968f832/" target="_blank">is only growing.</a></p><p>Even as <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/what-the-youth-climate-strike-felt-like-as-a-woman-of-color" target="_blank">young women are making waves</a> around the world leading mass protests and strikes, those who are making decisions about global climate policy are overwhelmingly men. Data collected by WEDO about United Nations climate negotiations — where leaders meet to draft international climate policy like <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/171-countries-sign-paris-agreement-cop21" target="_blank">the Paris Agreement</a> — shows that, in 2018, <a href="https://wedo.org/factsheet-unfccc-progress-achieving-gender-balance-cop-24/" target="_blank">women represented only 22% of the heads of national delegations</a>. Though a slight increase from <a href="https://wedo.org/factsheet-unfccc-progress-achieving-gender-balance-cop-24/" target="_blank">15% in 2008</a>, at this rate, gender parity in the negotiations <a href="https://wedo.org/factsheet-unfccc-progress-achieving-gender-balance-cop-24/" target="_blank">would only be achieved in 2042</a>.</p><p>If we recognize that gender matters in how climate change affects people, then what does all of this mean for climate activism? <em>Teen Vogue</em> asked four activists how feminism informs their climate work, and why climate activists need to incorporate a feminist perspective. Here's what they told us.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTEyNDUwNy9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NjQ4NzU4Mn0.xMkAU9eSLqRmypaPFAwI9jCYzAII1qf59uTaUCLabYM/img.png?width=980" id="a3fdd" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="51a526d3699e318cb6dc49426f299628" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
HANNA GUNNARSON
<h2>Jeanette Sequeira, Gender Program Coordinator at Global Forest Coalition</h2><p>"Feminism helps me understand what underpins our climate crisis — systems like extractivism, patriarchy, and capitalism. Feminism helps us see the <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-gender-inequality-women-malawi" target="_blank">gender</a>-<a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/how-climate-change-in-bangladesh-impacts-women-and-girls" target="_blank">differentiated</a> <a href="https://unfccc.int/gender" target="_blank">impacts</a> of climate breakdown and how women disproportionately bear the brunt of the harm.</p><p>In my work, I constantly see how women are prevented from owning their own land and resources, and are excluded from real and equal participation in local, national, and global natural resources governance. Groups on the front lines, especially Indigenous and rural women, face violations of their land and human rights and deforestation and biodiversity loss in their territories, without having access to positions of power to stop it.</p><p>This is why defending women's rights and community rights should be at the center of our climate activism. I advocate for the rights of forest communities and support local women's groups to strengthen their own community-based initiatives on forest restoration, sustainable livelihoods, food sovereignty, and women's land rights. We need to put a stop to influential extractive industries and instead provide legitimate political, legal, and financial support to the real solutions already being proposed, enacted and protected by women at the front lines."</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTEyNDUxNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjQzOTMxNH0.qbYbtaKGUdHzM9xU-oaMlTHdgOvt8NcxRMKrIBLGPQ8/img.jpg?width=980" id="0a551" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1525bd8b3ad8ec2f38b2c2b6f289089b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
LEX MORALES
<h2>P Brown, Organizer With Spring UP, SustainUS, and Our Voices</h2><p>"As a black, queer, femme-identifying organizer, a core aspect of my being is honoring the wisdom and power of Black feminist leaders, like Marsha P. Johnson and Angela Davis, who have fought tirelessly to build movements wherein strategy roots itself in the needs of those directly impacted by systemic violence. As people living in a world where we simultaneously experience privilege and oppression, a key lesson we must acknowledge is that we all have capacity to erase, silence, and exploit the voices of marginalized peoples with which we don't share a common struggle and/or identity.</p><p>I've come to recognize that the mainstream climate movement's shift in strategy to "center" the narratives of Black, Brown, and Indigenous peoples on the front lines of crises has actually meant exploitation of our labor and resources. Beyond mobilizations, there's little genuine, long-term effort to build the deep relationships and trust needed to facilitate authentic collaborations that Black, Brown, and Indigenous feminist leadership demands. Instead, our traumas and struggles continue to be tokenized.</p><p>We need to shift these relationships to redistribute resources and funding to grassroots movements pioneering solutions that impact people's day-to-day livelihoods. If we're rooted in Black, Brown, and Indigenous queer feminisms, we must acknowledge those on the margins of society are already tackling the problems we face. We must invest the time and energy needed to build mutual aid and underground disaster relief networks to hold space for folks to feel safe, secure, and prepared for climate crises. The reality is we are already doing this work, we just need the resources to sustain our ability to exercise agency and autonomy. We don't need top-down solutions."</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTEyNDUzMC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1MDUwOTczNH0.NSTomHzMQTvjeBHTfPdwS4jvk8BvLORLGK5h4lGxPLg/img.jpg?width=980" id="5eb02" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="24836ead6b033d6222be4336276464fa" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
RACHEL ROOD-OJALVO
<h2>Logan Dreher, SolarCorps Clean Mobility Fellow at GRID Alternatives and Sacramento Sunrise Hub Coordinator</h2><p>"Climate change, like other disasters, maps onto existing inequalities in our society. A trans woman afraid to sleep in a hurricane evacuation center is living at the intersection of the climate crisis and patriarchy. Indigenous women whose <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/politics/2004/04/11/poisons-from-afar-threaten-arctic-mothers-traditions/89af6e09-c411-4b6f-bc97-4839963e9208/" target="_blank">breast milk is poisoned</a> by <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/4128495?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents" target="_blank">pollution</a> also live in this place. No person lives a single-issue life. As environmental feminists have demonstrated <a href="https://takku.net/mediagallery/mediaobjects/orig/f/f_val-plumwood-feminism-and-the-mastery-of-nature-pdf.pdf" target="_blank">again</a> and <a href="https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2979/jfemistudreli.33.2.14#metadata_info_tab_contents" target="_blank">again</a>, climate justice and gender justice are the same struggle, and we must treat them as such.</p><p>This means we must craft climate policies with gender in mind. Proposals that don't consider gender will simply leave women and gender nonconforming people behind. Take transportation justice, where I work. We desperately need to reinvest in our public transit in order to rapidly decarbonize the transportation sector. But investments in public transit won't solve our transportation problems until women and queer folks can exist in public without fear of violence. Transportation justice, like climate justice, cannot truly be realized without an end to patriarchy.</p><p>Feminism is an essential part of climate justice because it illuminates how our extractive, dominating relationship with nature stems from patriarchy. Real climate justice demands radically transforming how we, as humans, treat the nonhuman world. It means recognizing how our current system is shaped by patriarchy."</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTEyNDUzMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxODAyMTQ2Mn0.VJv3veKEMg-AcVU9Ta1G8TVr3nKo-uxnK7c_CmsVnt4/img.jpg?width=980" id="f3525" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d496d02f7722890a53f1bf48d27ee377" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
BRET HARTMAN/COURTESY KATLEGO KAI KOLANYANE-KESUPILE
<h2>Katlego Kai Kolanyane-Kesupile, Trans ARTivist and U.N. Religion Fellow With OutRight Action International</h2><p>"We can't deny that there are many feminist movements from which global climate-justice advocates can learn. These social justice movements have been running for decades and continue to modify their strategic approaches based on how their relative opposing forces change. The great challenge for climate-justice advocacy is that <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/" target="_blank">humankind is the antagonist</a>. While opposing feminism might make sense to some people, it strikes me as nonsensical that anyone would attempt to excuse themselves from advocating for us to have a healthy planet to live on.<a href="https://video.teenvogue.com/watch/the-queer-eye-cast-designs-their-own-high-school-yearbook#intcid=recommendations_default-similar2_392a4926-60a0-4b55-9947-3e37ba9d68d2_cral1-1" target="_blank">b 5 Designs Their Own High School Yearbook</a><span style="background-color: initial; font-family: Roboto, Helvetica, Verdana, Tahoma, sans-serif;">BY </span>TEEN VOGUE</p><p>While the younger generation is <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/greta-thunberg-climate-strike-teen-vogue-special-issue-cover" target="_blank">now using scientific evidence</a> collected over many years to <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-48018034/climate-change-activist-greta-thunberg-listen-to-climate-scientists" target="_blank">build accountability measures for countries</a>, we need to adopt intergenerational dialogue and other strategies from feminist movements. These can be employed in order to afford our movement some sustainability. One can't be a feminist and not care about the environment, and I always hope that climate-justice advocates lean on feminist teachings and practices to fortify their actions."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"We are seeing the beginnings of the era of climate barbarism." <a href="https://twitter.com/NaomiAKlein?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NaomiAKlein</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/CoveringClimateNow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#CoveringClimateNow</a><br> <a href="https://t.co/9F62pfJIjA">https://t.co/9F62pfJIjA</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1174261863988809728?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 18, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em><em><em>This story originally appeared in <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-activists-explain-why-climate-justice-movement-needs-feminism" target="_blank">Teen Vogue</a></em>. <em>It is republished here as part of</em> <em>EcoWatch's partnership with Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.</em></em></em><br/></p>From Your Site Articles
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EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
By Allegra Kirkland, Jeremy Deaton, Molly Taft, Mina Lee and Josh Landis
Climate change is already here. It's not something that can simply be ignored by cable news or dismissed by sitting U.S. senators in a Twitter joke. Nor is it a fantastical scenario like The Day After Tomorrow or 2012 that starts with a single crack in the Arctic ice shelf or earthquake tearing through Los Angeles, and results, a few weeks or years later, in the end of life on Earth as we know it.
<p>Instead, we are seeing its creeping effects now — with hurricanes like Maria and Harvey that caused <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/29/us/puerto-rico-growing-death-toll/index.html" target="_blank">hundreds of deaths</a> and <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/puerto-rico-lost-43-billion-after-hurricane-maria-according-govt-n943441" target="_blank">billions of dollars</a> in economic damage; with the Mississippi River and its tributaries <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/10/us/flooding-river-shipping.html" target="_blank">overflowing their banks</a> this spring, leaving huge swaths of the Midwestern plains under water. Climate change is, at this very moment, <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-explained-global-warming" target="_blank">taking a real toll on wildlife, ecosystems</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html" target="_blank">economies</a>, and <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/climate-change-and-disasters.html" target="_blank">human beings</a>, particularly in the global south, which <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/scpibackground/" target="_blank">experts expect</a> will be hit first and hardest. We know from the increasingly <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report" target="_blank">apocalyptic warnings</a> being issued by the United Nations that it will only get worse.</p>
<p><em><em><em><em>Note: This story is based on <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/" target="_blank">RCP 8.5</a>, the so-called "business-as-usual" emissions scenario that assumes that Earth will continue to heavily rely on fossil fuels as the global economy grows. Per Nexus Media, "As we are currently doing virtually nothing to stop climate change, RCP 8.5 is a pretty good predictor of what's going to happen over the next couple of decades. Part of that is because it will take a while for the climate to reach a new equilibrium, so even if we stopped polluting now, the planet would continue to warm for decades." It looks at a sea level rise of six feet, on average, globally, based on the findings of this <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000239" target="_blank">widely-cited 2014 study</a>.</em></em></em></em></p><p><em><em><em>This story originally appeared in <a href="https://www.teenvogue.com/story/climate-change-timeline-st-louis-san-francisco-houston" target="_blank">Teen Vogue</a> in partnership with <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/" target="_blank">Nexus Media</a></em>. <em>It is republished here as part of</em> <em>EcoWatch's partnership with Covering Climate Now, a global collaboration of more than 250 news outlets to strengthen coverage of the climate story.</em></em></em></p>
<p>But these early omens of our unstable, hot, wet future can be difficult to wrap our heads around. So <em>Teen Vogue</em> partnered with the team at the nonprofit news service <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/" target="_blank">Nexus Media</a>, who developed a timeline predicting how climate change could affect three major U.S. cities over the course of the 21st century. Climate change will look different in different places across the world, but we chose three places with distinct geographic concerns and climate vulnerabilities — to ground all the ominous statistics and headlines in a real sense of place. These are cities you may have visited, or where you may have family, or where you may even live.</p><p>According to the research Nexus compiled, St. Louis will see flooding, extreme heat, severe rainfall, and drought in the surrounding farmland. In Houston, on the Gulf of Mexico, hurricanes will grow more destructive and temperatures will soar. San Francisco will witness rising sea levels, fierce wildfires, and extreme drought.</p><p>This timeline is based on interviews with a dozen climate experts and a review of several dozen scientific studies. The projections assume an average <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2014EF000239" target="_blank">sea level rise of six feet by 2100</a> — a little more in some places, and less in others — and the business-as-usual <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2019/01/rcp-85-the-climate-change-disaster-scenario/579700/" target="_blank">emissions scenario</a>, which assumes that we will continue to pollute and use fossil fuels at our current rate.</p><p>Rather than a scientific assessment, it is a rigorously researched prediction of what our future could bring unless we come together as a country and as a global community — fast— to address climate change as the crisis it is.</p><p>As Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, put it: "The future is not set in stone. Some amount of change is inevitable. It's as if we've been smoking a pack of cigarettes a day for decades, but we don't have lung cancer yet."</p><p>"The amount of change that we're going to see — whether it's serious, whether it's dangerous, whether it's devastating, whether it's civilization-threatening — the amount of change we're going to see is up to us," she continued. "It depends on our choices today and in the next few years."</p>
2020
<h4>Houston<br></h4><p>It's starting to get hot. It's now about one degree <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> warmer in Houston than it was in the second half of the 20th century. Houstonians can expect especially balmy falls this decade, as autumns are <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/outreach/alert-archive/2018/2018SeasonalWarming-English-Dropdown-ARCHIVE.html?market=stlouis" target="_blank">warming faster</a> than other seasons in Texas.</p><p>Houston knows how much it stands to lose from climate change. In 2017, Hurricane Harvey devastated the city, which was <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/climate/hurricane-harvey-climate-change.html" target="_blank">supercharged</a> by warm waters in the Gulf. But Houston is also helping to drive the rise in temperature. <a href="https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/organization/eco-dev/Texas_Largest_Companies.pdf" target="_blank">Several major oil companies</a> and a vast network of oil refineries and petrochemical plants call the city home.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>This decade, St. Louis is expected to be more than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">two degrees Fahrenheit warmer</a> than it was, on average, during the latter half of the 20th century. While locals have endured more sweltering summer days, they have felt the change the most during the cold months. Missouri winters are <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/outreach/alert-archive/2018/2018SeasonalWarming-English-Dropdown-ARCHIVE.html?market=stlouis" target="_blank">warming faster</a> than summers, springs, and falls.</p><p>Warmer air holds more water, which can lead to <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/news/report-pouring-it-on-climate-change-intensifies-heavy-rain-events" target="_blank">more severe rainfall</a>. In recent years, rainstorms have pummeled the Midwest and led to widespread flooding across the region. In 2019 in St. Louis, rivers reached <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/state-and-regional/as-second-highest-river-crest-reaches-st-louis-low-lying/article_08e5f1d1-5306-5795-81d9-349696462899.html" target="_blank">near-historic levels</a>, and floodwaters <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U-goZZPlM9M" target="_blank">inundated the area</a> around the city's iconic Gateway Arch.</p><p>This storm wasn't a blip on the radar, but rather a sign of what's to come. As the planet heats up, St. Louis can expect <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013EF000185" target="_blank">more extreme rainstorms</a> — and more <a href="https://www.stltoday.com/news/local/metro/apartment-buildings-evacuated-in-st-louis-county-along-flooding-river/article_e888e663-c8fa-5aae-a183-67d57eb3d0bc.html" target="_blank">orders to evacuate</a> low-lying neighborhoods.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>For San Franciscans, the beginning of the decade will feel only a little different from past years. In 2020, it's expected to be less than <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">one degree Fahrenheit warmer</a> in San Francisco than it was, on average, between 1950 and 2000. The change is small, but locals can sometimes feel it in the spring, which is <a href="http://ccimgs-2018.s3.amazonaws.com/2018SeasonalWarming/2018SeasonalWarming_CA_en_title_lg.jpg" target="_blank">warming faster</a> than the other seasons, or on <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/01/san-francisco-smashes-all-time-record-high-temperature-hits-106-degrees/" target="_blank">especially hot days</a>.</p><p>But there are new worries for the city. Rising temperatures have fueled <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/d3xxzk/get-ready-for-more-california-droughts-thanks-to-climate-change" target="_blank">ongoing drought</a> in recent years, which has, in turn, led to more wildfires. Fires now burn <a href="http://www.climateassessment.ca.gov/techreports/docs/20180827-Projections_CCCA4-CEC-2018-014.pdf" target="_blank">more regularly</a> across the Sierra Nevada as well as coastal mountain ranges. The flames may <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace/2018/08/08/yosemite-closed-indefinitely-as-california-fires-grow-to-largest-in-history-map-and-update/#6d89ea4a3ef2" target="_blank">ruin plans</a> for weekend getaways to Yosemite or deliver noxious smoke to the Bay Area. And locals may start to reach for air masks as dangerously smoky days become more common.</p><p>"We get a lot of the smoke that comes from the wildfires that happen in inland California, and that makes it really hard to breathe the air," said Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>, who is based in San Francisco. "Last year when there was a massive wildfire hundreds of miles away, San Francisco for a day [ranked among] the worst air quality in the entire world."</p>2030
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTExODMzNy9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTU5ODYxODM1Mn0.xgR3gyPWt0ycd4gqcJ_orGihTxQ0CG1aUHV7_-mPNF8/img.png?width=980" id="bee21" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3dc110479cc2fec787aa87d2d280a579" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />NEXUS MEDIA
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By 2030, temperatures are expected to have warmed almost <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">two degrees Fahrenheit</a> in Houston. Seas are expected to have risen a little more than a foot, enough to occasionally flood some low-lying areas outside the city. Warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico will <a href="https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-09/documents/climate-change-tx.pdf" target="_blank">raise the speed limit</a> for winds during hurricanes and ramp up rainfall during storms.</p><p>"Hurricanes are not getting more frequent, but they are getting stronger and bigger and slower," said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at <a href="https://www.ttu.edu/" target="_blank">Texas Tech University</a>. "They're intensifying faster and they have a lot more rain associated with them today than they would have had a hundred years ago."</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>By 2030, temperatures are expected to have warmed around three degrees Fahrenheit in St. Louis. The kind of rainstorm that currently strikes the Midwest around once every five years will hit around once <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013EF000185" target="_blank">every three years</a> this decade.</p><p>"We've seen these record-breaking, devastating floods in the Midwest," said Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at <a href="https://www.ttu.edu/" target="_blank">Texas Tech University</a>. "It's not like they've never had floods before, but the floods are just getting a lot worse and a lot more frequent."</p><p>This could mean trouble for local infrastructure. Rivers swell after heavy rains, and the rush of water can <a href="https://www.epa.gov/cira/climate-action-benefits-bridges" target="_blank">weaken bridges</a> by carrying away sediment from around their foundations. This could be a big problem in Missouri, which is home to hundreds of <a href="https://www.modot.org/Bridges" target="_blank">aging</a> bridges, many of which have been <a href="https://artbabridgereport.org/state/ranking" target="_blank">deemed deficient</a>. Climate change could mean even more heavy <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/21/" target="_blank">repair costs</a> for taxpayers.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>This decade, the rise in temperature is expected to pass two degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> in San Francisco. That may not feel like a lot in the city. But warmer weather is taking a serious toll.</p><p>California's drought will get <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">progressively worse</a> this decade, the product of warmer temperatures drying out soil and meager rainfall failing to replace the water lost. Rising temperatures will also yield <a href="https://www.kqed.org/science/1936797/why-we-cant-stop-talking-about-californias-sierra-snowpack" target="_blank">less snowfall</a>. The snow that does come down will melt in the spring and early summer, depriving the state of a critical source of water in the late summer, when, historically, melting snow has fed streams and rivers.</p><p>The snow drought will strain farmers in the Central Valley, while putting pressure on cities to use less water. The <a href="https://www.vcstar.com/story/news/2018/05/31/permanent-california-water-restrictions-approved-gov-jerry-brown/662456002/" target="_blank">water restrictions</a> the state put in place in 2018 will have grown much more severe in the past 12 years. Officials could urge Californians across the state to take shorter showers and stop watering their lawns to cope with the worsening drought.</p>2040
<h4>Houston</h4><p>This decade, sea level rise around Houston is projected to reach two feet, enough to inundate much of nearby Freeport and Jamaica Beach. That extra water will mean that hurricanes, when they strike, will deliver <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/hurricanes-and-climate-change" target="_blank">more powerful floods</a> to coastal areas.</p><p>"A small and steady rise of the water level elevates a platform for flooding that we've had throughout history," said Maya Buchanan, a sea level rise scientist at <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/" target="_blank">Climate Central</a>. "That means larger storm surges."</p><p>That's bad news for people who live near the shore. Around <a href="https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/hurricanes-tropical-storms-us-deaths-surge-flooding" target="_blank">half of deaths</a> caused by hurricanes are the result of coastal flooding, and waters <a href="https://www.huffpost.com/entry/houston-harvey-environmental-justice_n_59a41c90e4b06d67e3390993" target="_blank">tend to inundate</a> poor neighborhoods and neighborhoods of color, which are more likely to lie in flood-prone areas.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>In 2040, St. Louis is expected to be four degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was at the end of the last century. While that may sound like a small number, it means big problems for the city. A small uptick in the average temperature could lead to milder winters, stifling summers and changing rainfall.</p><p>St. Louis will tend to see wetter springs and drier summers. That means the region will withstand heavier downpours, but it will also endure long stretches without a drop of rain. Despite the growing peril of major flooding, extended dry spells and rising temperatures will dry out the land. Drought will <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">set in</a> in Missouri, endangering farms.</p><p>And just remember — it will never be this cool again.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2040, sea levels are predicted to rise around one foot, enough to encroach the beaches on the west side of the city and Candlestick Point on the east, popular recreation areas. Parts of San Francisco Airport and Oakland Airport will flood regularly, making air travel in and out of the city more difficult.</p><p>Drought will have grown <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">increasingly severe.</a> Forests will dry out, and become vulnerable to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/how-the-bark-beetle-fueled-californias-wildfires/" target="_blank">bark beetles</a>, which burrow into trees to lay their eggs. Healthy trees can ward off the bugs by covering them in resin — but already struggling trees have no way to protect themselves.</p><p>Large parts of forests will die, and the dead trees will become tinder for wildfire. In 2040, fires are expected to burn around twice as much big sections of the Sierra Nevada as they do today. Areas south of San Francisco will also grow more vulnerable to erupting in flames.</p>2050
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By midcentury, temperatures are expected to have warmed more than three degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> in Houston. Waters in the Gulf of Mexico will have also warmed, fueling more dangerous storms.</p><p>In the decades to come, the Gulf will see more category-four and -five hurricanes, like <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL092017_Harvey.pdf" target="_blank">Hurricane Harvey</a> and <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL122005_Katrina.pdf" target="_blank">Hurricane Katrina</a>, according to Suzana Camargo, a climate scientist at <a href="https://www.columbia.edu/" target="_blank">Columbia University</a>. Warm water is like ammunition for cyclones, arming them with more powerful winds and heavier rains. People might want to think twice before they purchase a home in Houston.</p><p>"I think people have to think very carefully how they are going to plan when they want to buy a house," Camargo said, explaining that in the future, cyclones will deliver more flooding to seaside cities and towns.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>St. Louis is expected to have heated up by more than five degrees Fahrenheit on average by the middle of the century. Hot weather will dry out soil. Past 2050, the Central Plains, including much of Missouri, can look forward to <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082?utm_source=charybd.com&utm_medium=link&utm_compaign=article" target="_blank">decades-long drought</a>.</p><p>This drought will be especially disastrous for Missouri farmers. Growers will have to take more water out of underground aquifers to feed their crops, drawing down a limited supply of groundwater, often at great cost. This, in turn, could drive up the price of food.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2050, temperatures in San Francisco are expected to have risen more than three degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>. In the second half of this century, changing weather patterns will yield lasting dry spells, leaving much of California to endure long stretches without rain. Around the time someone graduating high school today turns 50, they <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082?utm_source=charybd.com&utm_medium=link&utm_compaign=article" target="_blank">can expect</a> California to enter a decades-long drought — with disastrous consequences.</p><p>Farmers in California will have to draw more and more water from underground. Eventually, they may not be able to grow fruits and vegetables in parts of the state. This will drive up the cost of many foods, such as strawberries, almonds, and lemons.</p><p>Snow will also start to disappear from the Sierra Nevada. By 2050, projections say, there will be <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-07/Statewide%20Reports-%20SUM-CCCA4-2018-013%20Statewide%20Summary%20Report.pdf" target="_blank">a third less snow</a> than we see today. San Francisco <a href="https://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/California-Bay-Area-drought-reservoir-snowpack-SF-13591499.php" target="_blank">depends</a> on that snow for its water, and a dry Sierra Nevada could mean a looming water crisis for the city.</p><p>The drought will also leave California's forests all the more vulnerable to wildfire — fires that could cover San Francisco in smoke, making it <a href="https://www.popsci.com/fires-california-air-quality-cigarettes/" target="_blank">dangerous</a> to go outside.</p>2060
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTExODM1Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjIwNjc2NX0.-XekcQCqYuel5NqFwuK0XTp3VnFoZzJHhMpx0QNvhmY/img.png?width=980" id="46fe3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="371e7c8ce7857c4bfb38ed9cd20aff44" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Where San Francisco residents are expected to move when they're displaced by rising seas..
NEXUS MEDIA
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By 2060, temperatures are expected to have warmed by more than four degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>. The city could see up to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/08/20/sunday-review/climate-change-hot-future.html?auth=login-smartlock" target="_blank">25 days a year</a> with temperatures over 100 degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>.</p><p>Local sea level rise, meanwhile, is expected reach three feet during this decade. This will raise the level of Buffalo Bayou, the waterway that stretches through the middle of Houston. The Scholes International Airport in nearby Galveston will sink into the sea, and at high tide, water will flood much of the San Jacinto Battleground, site of the 1836 clash where Sam Houston, the city's <a href="https://www.britannica.com/biography/Sam-Houston" target="_blank">namesake</a>, <a href="https://www.history.com/topics/mexico/battle-of-san-jacinto" target="_blank">overcame</a> the Mexican Army.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>St. Louis is expected hit a six-degrees-Fahrenheit increase in its average temperature this decade. While this might be bad news for humans, it's good for many insects, who love warm weather. Rising temperatures will bring <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-widen-range-disease-carrying-mosquitoes-says-study" target="_blank">disease-carrying mosquitoes</a> to St. Louis's doorstep. Missourians will have to be more vigilant about their health as the bugs could spread tropical viruses like <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/zika/index.html" target="_blank">Zika</a>, <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/dengue/index.html" target="_blank">dengue</a>, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/yellowfever/index.html" target="_blank">yellow fever</a> around the warming Midwest.</p><p>Climate change will also bring more <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/maps/projections-in-deer-tick-habitat" target="_blank">deer ticks</a> to St. Louis. Because warmer air can hold more water, as temperatures rise, so does humidity — and deer ticks thrive in humid weather. While ticks are little seen in Missouri today, later this century they will fan out across the state, potentially spreading <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/index.html" target="_blank">Lyme disease</a>. Those afflicted will endure fever, headache, and fatigue. They may see their joints swell or feel their face droop.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2060, temperatures in San Francisco are expected to have risen by more than four degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>.</p><p>Wildfires will burn roughly three times as much of broad swaths of the Sierra Nevada as they do today, laying waste to large stretches of California's pristine forests.</p><p>This decade, sea level rise is projected hit two feet. Water will begin to spill over the edges of the Mission Creek Channel, while threatening routine floods around San Francisco's iconic Fisherman's Wharf. Waters will have flooded much of nearby San Rafael, north of San Francisco. To the south, Foster City will be underwater, displacing thousands of residents — many of whom currently work in the tech industry.</p>2070
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By 2070, Houston is projected to be more than five degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> hotter than at the end of the 20th century. This warming is part of a larger trend that is heating up the planet and melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica, raising the sea level near the city.</p><p>"As flooding events get more severe, that can impact property values, and that could impact where people decide to live," Buchanan said, explaining that rising seas will drive down the value of homes in low-lying areas.</p><p>By this time, waters will have already subsumed much of the coastline from Freeport, south of Houston, all the way to New Orleans. Rising seas will make much of the Gulf coast unrecognizable as the ocean swallows up most of southern Louisiana. Later this decade, sea levels are expected to have risen by four feet.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>In 2070, St. Louis is projected to be more than seven degrees Fahrenheit hotter than it was at the end of the last century. Before the decade is through, the city is expected to see eight degrees Fahrenheit of warming. Rising temperatures will have utterly transformed the weather in Missouri, making it virtually unrecognizable to current residents. The city will see around <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest" target="_blank">20 fewer days</a> of frost each year than it does today, as well as around <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest" target="_blank">20 extra days</a> with temperatures over 95 degrees Fahrenheit. The heat will be felt <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/09/climate/city-heat-islands.html" target="_blank">most acutely</a> in neighborhoods short on trees and parks.</p><p>Outside the city, severe heat will <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest" target="_blank">cripple the growth</a> of corn and soybeans at nearby farms. So will drought, which experts say will <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">be worse</a> than at any time in living memory. The state will endure <a href="https://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/regions/midwest" target="_blank">more consecutive days</a> without rain. When it does rain, however, it will pour. Warmer temperatures will produce more extreme rainfall.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2070, San Francisco's average temperature is expected to have warmed by more than five degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>. Drought will be <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">more severe</a> than at any time in living memory. Rising temperatures and diminished rainfall will <a href="https://ww2.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-500-2012-037/CEC-500-2012-037.pdf" target="_blank">take a toll</a> on trees around the San Francisco Bay. More and more evergreen forests will die off and grasslands will spring up in their place, fundamentally changing the landscape around the city.</p>2080
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTExODM2OC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMzQ5NzQ5MH0.ZVi9RPYLaWvmHeo01PPYBolegntrVAmrmOh9FMyqpzs/img.png?width=980" id="c4054" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="76b0c2f9b54a42a535a5f3e5581177d2" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />This is what Houston, St. Louis, and San Francisco will feel like in 2080.
NEXUS MEDIA
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By 2080, temperatures are projected to have warmed around six degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> on average, a dizzying change in the weather that means Houston won't feel like Houston anymore.</p><p>The city will grow warmer and wetter. Around 2080, Houston <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08540-3" target="_blank">will feel</a> something like Ciudad Mante in Mexico does today, with its warmer, drier winter.</p><p>As the climate changes, Houston's native wildlife could start to head north. At the same time, plants and animals that currently make their home south of Houston may start to work their way toward the city.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>St. Louis is expected to be nearly nine degrees Fahrenheit warmer by 2080. The temperature will have changed so drastically that St. Louis no longer feels like the same city.</p><p>Around 2080, St. Louis <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08540-3" target="_blank">will start to feel</a> like Prosper, Texas, does today. This new St. Louis will be hotter and drier. Summer weather will go from balmy to sweltering, and the city will see much less rain during the warm months.</p><p>It's not just that St. Louis will feel more like Prosper. It might start to look like it too. Animals that currently live around Prosper could head northward as the climate changes, searching for a new home that feels like their old one. At the same time, the shrubs and grasslands that stretch across north Texas could start to edge their way toward Missouri.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2080, the average temperature is expected to have risen by more than six degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> in San Francisco. The city will <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-08540-3" target="_blank">start to feel</a> a lot like present-day Los Angeles. The weather will be warmer and drier, much like the current climate in Palos Verdes Estates, a coastal city in the L.A. area.</p><p>With less rainfall, many of the trees that make their home in San Francisco will die. At the same time, the smaller, scrubbier plants that make their home in L.A. could migrate toward the city. It's not just that San Francisco will start to feel like L.A., scientists say. It might start to look like it too.</p>2090
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By now, temperatures are projected to have warmed close to seven degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a>, while sea levels will have risen five feet, subsuming the coastline. Much of nearby Galveston is underwater.</p><p>It's not just hot days that threaten Houston. Rising temperatures will allow the air to hold more water, increasing humidity — which could be a big problem for public health.</p><p>"As humidity rises, it becomes harder and harder for the sweat to evaporate off our skin — and it's that evaporation of sweat that cools our bodies," said Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>. "So it might only be a temperature reading of 90 degrees, but if you have 60% humidity, it's going to feel hotter than 90 degrees."</p><p>Dahl said that Houston will heat up so much that it will be hard to quantify how hot it will feel.</p><p>"By the end of the century, Houston would see about three weeks of what we call off-the-charts heat conditions, which are when the combination of temperature and humidity falls above the national weather services heat index scale," she said. "What that means is that we can't even calculate a heat index to reliably warn people about how dangerous it is."</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>St. Louis is expected to have warmed by almost 10 degrees Fahrenheit, a transformational change in the climate of the city. Rising temperatures could provoke a spike in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full?ijkey=x3wZ8kcgtomUM&keytype=ref&siteid=sci" target="_blank">violent crime</a> — when people are hot, research shows, they tend to feel <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/16/two-new-studies-warn-that-hotter-world-will-be-more-violent-one/" target="_blank">more aggressive</a>.</p><p>By the end of the century, St. Louis will endure around 80 days per year where the heat index is above 100 degrees — compared to just 11 days at the end of the 20th century, according to Kristy Dahl, a climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists.</p><p>"It's really striking because historically those off-the-charts conditions have only occurred in the Sonoran desert region of the U.S., the California-Arizona border," Dahl said.</p><p>In addition to extreme heat, the city will also endure <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">severe drought</a>, punctuated by the occasional supercharged rainstorm. The kind of downpour that currently strikes the Midwest around once every five years will hit around once <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/2013EF000185" target="_blank">every year or two</a>. The most severe storms — the kind that currently show up once every 20 years — now arrive once <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/clean-power-plan-states-MO.pdf" target="_blank">every six or seven years</a>.</p><p>Heavy rainfall will lead to flooding, and floodwaters will mix with raw sewage, <a href="https://www.nrdc.org/sites/default/files/clean-power-plan-states-MO.pdf" target="_blank">helping to spread</a> bacteria. Rains will also swamp homes and businesses, offering a place for mold to grow.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By now, San Francisco is projected to have heated up more than seven degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> on average. The extra heat will mean many people will be spending <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/16/two-new-studies-warn-that-hotter-world-will-be-more-violent-one/" target="_blank">more time outdoors</a>, potentially leading to a spike in <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full?ijkey=x3wZ8kcgtomUM&keytype=ref&siteid=sci" target="_blank">violent crime</a>.</p><p>The state will be mired in <a href="https://theconversation.com/what-historic-megadroughts-in-the-western-us-tell-us-about-our-climate-future-37615" target="_blank">lasting drought</a>. Wildfires could consume around four times as much of huge sections of the Sierra Nevada as they do today, as well as forests closer to San Francisco, endangering locals.</p><p>The Bay Area is expected to have seen more than three feet of sea level rise. The San Francisco and Oakland Airports will be completely underwater. Across the bay, coastal flooding will inundate parts of Alameda. Low-lying areas on the south end of the San Francisco Bay will also be flooded, including some of San Jose.</p>2010
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTExODM5Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1ODY4NjEzN30.PBDiHSshbvnFqahHXVGiIJdnbbW_nPFPWt1rwO8ljlo/img.png?width=980" id="efd2c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1a2fd2e87f4339580f7f09d97fc69952" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />NEXUS MEDIA
<h4>Houston</h4><p>By the end of this century, temperatures are expected to have warmed close to eight degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> in Houston. In the summer, Houston will <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/wgts/global-shifting-cities/index.html" target="_blank">feel something like</a> Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, does today. High temperatures will average over 100 degrees Fahrenheit during the warmest months.</p><p>By making life harder for workers, severe hotter weather will shrink the economy of the greater Houston area by <a href="http://www.impactlab.org/" target="_blank">6%</a>. Extreme heat will also kill hundreds more people each year. Poorer neighborhoods tend to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/09/climate/city-heat-islands.html" target="_blank">be warmer</a>, in part because they tend to have <a href="https://mashable.com/2012/07/18/google-maps-income-inequality/" target="_blank">fewer trees</a>. People who live in those neighborhoods are also less likely to have air conditioners, which will put them at greater risk.</p><p>On top of the heat, Houston is expected to have seen close to six feet of sea level rise by 2100. Waters encroach on the east side of town near the water, where oil refineries and chemical plants could continue to service our catastrophic addiction to oil and gas. Routine flooding of these facilities may cause <a href="https://www.apnews.com/748cd58a4feb4785b9ea1cdf68f0ef1f" target="_blank">dangerous explosions</a> and potentially release toxic chemicals into the air.</p><p>Much of the city, however, will stay safe from the encroaching sea. That means the Houston could absorb <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3271.epdf?author_access_token=Hvxidg4gL1Q0zWEvyEXiLtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NFv3_2_MZIRrCavou7VputY0Z0x-UWFD09j5eSgqBhP56-FYSZJPA8_HdSRdIl79npShOcx0Gd16aq4FimtdoF" target="_blank">hundreds of thousands</a> of new residents by 2100 — people who were driven from Miami and New Orleans by ever-worsening coastal floods.</p><h4>St. Louis</h4><p>By the end of this century, St. Louis is expected to have warmed by roughly 11 degrees Fahrenheit. Winter will scarcely look like winter. Summers will have gone from hot to unbearable.</p><p>During the hottest months, it will be <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/gallery/maps/days-above-100f-projections" target="_blank">so scorching</a> that it will be dangerous to go outside for much of the day. People will depend more on air conditioners to stay cool, leading to <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full?ijkey=x3wZ8kcgtomUM&keytype=ref&siteid=sci" target="_blank">bigger electric bills</a>. Elderly people, particularly those who can't afford to run an air conditioner, will face the risk of <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/news/searing-temps-have-literally-been-lethal-for-seniors/" target="_blank">heat stroke and death</a>.</p><p>The intense heat will take an immense toll on the local economy. Farms in Missouri and southern Illinois could see yields <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/356/6345/1362.full?ijkey=x3wZ8kcgtomUM&keytype=ref&siteid=sci" target="_blank">cut in half</a>, ruining livelihoods.</p><p>In St. Louis itself, experts project that heat will stifle productivity by making it too hot to work. This could help cut the city's economic output by around <a href="http://www.impactlab.org/research/estimating-economic-damage-from-climate-change-in-the-united-states/" target="_blank">8%</a>.</p><h4>San Francisco</h4><p>By 2100, San Francisco is expected to have heated up by more than eight degrees <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/sdata201648" target="_blank">Fahrenheit</a> on average. It will be hot and dry. Snow will be hard to find in the Sierra Nevada. By 2100, the mountain range will see <a href="https://www.energy.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2019-07/Statewide%20Reports-%20SUM-CCCA4-2018-013%20Statewide%20Summary%20Report.pdf" target="_blank">two thirds less snow</a> than we see today, depriving San Francisco of a much-needed water source.</p><p>Seas will have risen four feet, projections say. Large parts of Alameda will be underwater. Hunters Point will have flooded, as well as much of Mission Bay. And flooding won't be limited to San Francisco.</p><p>Sea level rise could flood the homes of <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3271.epdf?author_access_token=Hvxidg4gL1Q0zWEvyEXiLtRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NFv3_2_MZIRrCavou7VputY0Z0x-UWFD09j5eSgqBhP56-FYSZJPA8_HdSRdIl79npShOcx0Gd16aq4FimtdoF" target="_blank">13 million Americans</a> by the end of the century, leading to a massive exodus from many coastal areas. By one estimate, rising seas in places like Oakland, Alameda, and San Mateo could spur close to <a href="https://johnsorib.github.io/slr/index.html" target="_blank">300,000 residents</a> to move to inland cities in Arizona, Texas, and New Jersey. It is the poorest neighborhoods that will be the <a href="https://www.eastbayexpress.com/oakland/oaklands-poorest-neighborhoods-will-the-most-susceptible-to-flooding-due-to-climate-change-and-sea-level-rise/Content?oid=6401808" target="_blank">most vulnerable</a> to floods.</p>From Your Site Articles
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