NOAA: 1-in-3 Chance 2024 Could Be Even Hotter Than 2023

Last year was the hottest year on record by a wide margin, and 2024 has a one-in-three shot at being even hotter, according to the Annual 2023 Global Climate Report by the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

Scientists from the European Union found that Earth’s average temperature last year was 1.35 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial average, bringing it close to the 1.5 degrees Celsius marker, reported Reuters.

NOAA said ocean surface temperatures also reached record warmth last year.

Last week, a newsletter by James Hansen, former NASA scientist who first warned of the dangers of climate change in the 1980s, said temperatures could increase by up to 1.7 degrees Celsius by May of next year, Time reported.

“We are now in the process of moving into the 1.5°C world,” Hansen told the Guardian. “You can bet $100 to a donut on this.”

Last year’s scorching record heat was the result of global heating caused by greenhouse gas emissions produced by humans burning fossil fuels, coupled with the El Niño climate pattern appearing halfway through the year.

“Unlike the previous two years (2021 and 2022), which were squarely entrenched in a cold phase El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode, also known as La Niña, 2023 quickly moved into ENSO neutral territory, transitioning to a warm phase episode, El Niño, by June. ENSO not only affects global weather patterns, but it also affects global temperatures,” NASA said. “Despite 2021 and 2022 not ranking among the five warmest years on record, the global annual temperature increased at an average rate of 0.06°C (0.11°F) per decade since 1850 and more than three times that rate (0.20°C / 0.36°F) since 1982.”

NOAA said not only is there a one-in-three chance this year will be warmer than last year, there is a 99 percent likelihood 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record.

“The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don’t know yet,” said Christopher Hewitt, head of International Climate Services at the World Meteorological Organization, as reported by Reuters. “It’s highly likely (El Niño) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we’re not sure — it becomes less certain.”

El Niño’s effects usually peak during winter in the Northern Hemisphere before changing to a La Niña phase or a neutral pattern.

El Niño will peak in the Southern Hemisphere summer, so authorities are on the lookout for drought, extreme heat and wildfires.

Extreme heat warnings were issued for Western Australia by the country’s meteorology bureau this week.

Southern Africa was facing the “high likelihood” of below-average rainfall, according to Lark Walters, a Famine Early Warning System Network decision support adviser.

“We’re estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance,” Walters said, as Reuters reported.

In North America last year, the average temperature was the warmest ever recorded — 2.01 degrees Celsius higher than the average from 1910 to 2000. Ten months were above average, with December 4.88 degrees Celsius warmer than normal — blowing away the 1939 record by 1.39 degrees Celsius.

“North America’s yearly temperature has increased at an average rate of 0.14°C (0.23°F) per decade since 1910; however, the average rate of increase is more than double the rate (0.34°C/0.61°F) since 1982,” the NOAA climate report said.