NASA is advancing tools like this supercomputer model that created this simulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to better understand what will happen to Earth's climate if the land and ocean can no longer absorb nearly half of all climate-warming CO2 emissions. NASA/GSFC
By Jeff Berardelli
For the past year, some of the most up-to-date computer models from the world's top climate modeling groups have been "running hot" – projecting that global warming may be even more extreme than earlier thought. Data from some of the model runs has been confounding scientists because it challenges decades of consistent projections.
<p>"It is concerning, as it increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts," explains Dr. Andrew Gettelman, a cloud microphysics scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colorado.</p><p>As a result, there's been a real urgency to answer this important question in climate science: Are there processes in some new models that need correcting, or is this enhanced warming a real threat?</p><p>After months of contemplation and study after study, the picture is becoming much more clear, and providing something of a breather. Along with those studies, an unprecedented international research mission, led by NOAA and named ATOMIC, aims to provide climate science with the most sophisticated insights yet into why some models point to more warming.</p>
International Effort to Evaluate Climate Models
<p>For the past 25 years the international community has been evaluating and comparing the world's most sophisticated climate models produced by various teams at universities, research centers, and government agencies. The effort is organized by the World Climate Research Programme under the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.</p><p>Climate models are complicated computer programs composed of millions of lines of code that calculate the physical properties and interactions between the main climate forces like the atmosphere, oceans, and solar input. But models also go a lot further, incorporating other systems like ice sheets, forests, and the biosphere, to name a few. The models are then used to simulate the real-world climate system and project how certain changes, like added pollution or land-use changes, will alter the climate.</p><p>Every few years there is a new comprehensive international evaluation called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). In the sixth such effort, known as CMIP6 and now under way, experts are reviewing about 100 models.</p><p>Information gleaned from this effort will act as a scientific foundation for the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) next major assessment report, scheduled for release in 2021. The goal of the report – the sixth in 30 years – is to inform the international community about how much the climate has changed, and, importantly, how much change can be expected in coming decades.</p>A Conundrum Emerges
<p>Over the past year, the CMIP6 collection of models being reviewed threw researchers an unexpected curveball: a significant number of the climate model runs showed substantially more global warming than previous model versions had projected. If accurate, the international climate goals would be nearly impossible to achieve, and there would be significantly more extreme impacts worldwide.</p><p>A foundational experiment in every report addresses "sensitivity": If you double levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) that were in the air before the Industrial Revolution, how much warming do the models show? This doubling is not expected for a few more decades, but it is a quick way to communicate the critical role of greenhouse gases in changing the climate.</p><p>The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 35% since the 1800s because of the burning of fossil fuels. As a result, global temperatures have already increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit.</p><p>In the first IPCC assessment report, published in 1990, the answer to that question about the impact of doubling carbon dioxide gave a fairly wide range of results – between 2.7-8 degrees F of global warming. Since then, four more assessments issued six to seven years apart reached nearly the exact same conclusion on sensitivity.</p><p>But that sensitivity may, for the first time, change significantly in next year's assessment. Why? Because starting last year, numerous models in the CMIP6 collection displayed even bigger spikes in temperature upon doubling of CO2 concentrations. We're in serious trouble if the climate sensitivity falls in the mid or upper range of the previous assessments. But if the new, higher estimates are correct, the impacts on civilization would be catastrophic.</p><div id="63b84" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1b4b41ed87aff999ca43394f9847f1eb"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1255967704135217153" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">What's the latest on climate sensitivity in the latest climate models? Working from the latest compilation, it's...… https://t.co/bDT2GvuM2j</div> — Gavin Schmidt (@Gavin Schmidt)<a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/statuses/1255967704135217153">1588281010.0</a></blockquote></div><p>According to the highly regarded climate site Carbon Brief, which did an independent evaluation of the model suite, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained" target="_blank">30% of models</a> showed a significant increase in their sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQzMTY0MC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTA4MDAwOX0.mNhMDAJpLupwtoosUG26MLkswhuoZ3oj9GvK1wnDcNs/img.png?width=980" id="18335" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e628f9b66a9b44a64e549f621d5adfa6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
In the above CarbonBrief interactive visualization, the bars offer a comparison in the range of sensitivity in the CMIP5 models (gray) and CMIP6 models (blue).
New and Encouraging Evidence Is Emerging
<p>At first, scientists were uncertain whether the new model runs were on to something, so the international modeling community dug in to produce multiple studies. The results are not yet conclusive, but a gradual collective sigh of relief seems to be materializing.</p><p>"Evidence is emerging from multiple directions that the models which show the greatest warming in the CMIP6 ensemble are likely too warm," explains Dr. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.</p><p>For example, <a href="https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2020-23/" target="_blank">a study</a> released April 28 evaluated the past performance of the models making up the CMIP6 ensemble. The team assigned weights to each model based upon historical performance of their warming projections, weighing the poorer performing models less. By doing so, both the mean warming and the range of warming scenarios in the CMIP6 ensemble decreased, meaning the warmest models were the ones with weaker historical performance. This result supports a finding that a subset of the models are too warm.</p><p>That conclusion is supported by another new study evaluating one particular model – the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) – that showed greater warming. Using that model, the researchers simulated the climate in the early Eocene era, about 50 million years ago, when rainforests thrived in the Arctic and Antarctic. The CESM2 simulated a historical climate that seems way too warm compared with what is known about that era from geological data, indicating that the model is likely also too warm in its future projections.</p><p>Two other recent studies of the CMIP6 models being evaluated use clever analysis methods to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-86/&sa=D&ust=1589209938203000&usg=AFQjCNHYwFB-1KqndGfJ4sXdrrm9DpbLaQ" target="_blank">narrow the range</a> of future warming projections and also <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaaz9549&sa=D&ust=1589209938203000&usg=AFQjCNEhKY1YZ19qgjSZ_hJM14JmzqXOXw" target="_blank">reduce the projected warming</a> of the CMIP6 models by 10 to 15%.</p><p>Through the intensive research spurred by the CMIP6 climate-sensitivity curveball, scientists have been able to turn a confounding challenge into a confidence builder, providing even greater certainty than they had before in both the abilities of the climate science community and in the computer models used. Moreover, the experience has helped unearth uncertainties remaining in the modeling process.</p><p>Experts conclude much of this uncertainty probably lies in the complexity of clouds. "We have been looking as a community at why the models with greater warming are doing what they are doing – and it's tied to cloud feedbacks in the southern mid-latitudes mostly," explains Schmidt.</p><p>In fact, <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/26/eaba1981" target="_blank">a new study</a> addressing the increased sensitivity was published in Science Advances stating, "Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS [sensitivity] in CMIP6."</p>Understanding the Complexity of Clouds
<p>It's long been known in climate modeling circles that cloud processes and interactions are a potential weak link for climate modeling. That reality has been brought front and center by the urgent challenges posed during this CMIP6 evaluation period, but the current evaluation of models also provides an opportunity for discovery and improvement.</p><p>Cloud complexity comes from the reality that clouds have a multitude of sizes, altitudes, and textures. Some clouds cool Earth by providing shade, reflecting sunlight back into space. Others act like a blanket, trapping heat and warming the world.</p><p>Given that about <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/icesat_light.html" target="_blank">70% of the globe</a> is covered by clouds at any given time, it's no surprise that they play an integral role in regulating the climate. The challenge is to figure out which types of clouds will increase, which will decrease, and what the net effect will be on cooling or warming as the climate changes.</p><p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1" target="_blank">One study</a> last year reached an alarming conclusion: Left unchecked, the release of CO2 into the atmosphere may lead to a tipping point where shallow low clouds disappear – leading to runaway, catastrophic warming of nearly 15 degrees F. While scientists see that outcome as only a remote possibility, it drives home the urgent need to better understand clouds.</p><p>"We have a saying at NOAA: It isn't rocket science – it's much, much harder than that," quips Dr. Chris Fairall, ATOMIC's lead investigator. "One of the major problems for modeling is there is not clean separation of scales." The photo below is one that Fairall took from the NOAA P-3 aircraft.</p><p>"Think about trying to code up a model that can produce this," Fairall muses. "Huge cloud systems are made up of a spectrum of clouds from the size of Kansas to ones that fit in the trunk of your Volkswagen."</p><p>In the real world and the simulated model world, cloud formation depends partially on how moisture interacts with aerosols, tiny floating particles in the air. Aerosols are fine particles like smoke, sea spray, and pollutants. These tiny dust-like particles act as condensation nuclei, allowing gaseous water vapor to turn into cloud droplets.</p><p>The interplay between clouds, aerosols, and a warming climate in a model affects how much of a cooling or warming influence that model calculates.</p><p>Recently a <a href="https://news.ucar.edu/132678/ncars-new-climate-model-running-hot" target="_blank">new international dataset of emissions</a> – including changes in the concentrations of aerosols – has been introduced into some climate models with improved cloud physics. As a result, some scientists conclude, the changes have affected cloud dynamics in these models, leading to additional warming.</p><p>But despite the increased confidence that a subset of the CMIP6 models are likely overdoing warming projections, Gettelman believes there is at least some merit to the warmer projections because this generation of models has more sophisticated cloud physics.</p><p>So in order to get to the bottom of cloud complexity and improve these vital model projections, the international community is collaborating on a massive research project.</p>
Investigating the Secrets of Clouds
<p>To address the urgent question about the dynamics and role of clouds in a warming world, NOAA and European partners launched their ongoing research effort unprecedented in scale. The U.S. contribution, ATOMIC – short for Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign – is an international science mission that was featured recently on "<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/study-aims-to-examine-links-between-climate-change-and-clouds/" target="_blank">CBS This Morning: Saturday</a>."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQzMTY3Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMTkxMzE4NX0.KipK5ToH8BNyOLqIduVwDNxTkFSZ4NkPXUj80jwip3U/img.jpg?width=980" id="71223" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7583cf9e20b249877e26b76b9679d491" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>"The research that originally motivated this project was <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-017-9428-0" target="_blank">an analysis</a> that showed that the single biggest factor that separated the CMIP models into big warming and not so big warming was treatment of shallow convective clouds," Fairall explains.</p><p>The best places to find shallow convective clouds are tropical waters. So in February, a group of scientists from more than 40 partner institutions from countries including the U.S., Germany, France, and the U.K. painstakingly probed hundreds of miles of tropical air and sea near the island of Barbados. They used every tool in their arsenals: five research aircraft, four large fact-finding vessels, buoys, radar and futuristic air and ocean drones to examine the makeup of these complicated and crucial clouds.</p><p>Scientists expect that the vast, concurrent and diverse types of observations captured in ATOMIC will allow them to improve how clouds are represented in climate models, enabling them to make more precise predictions of future climate and impacts.</p><p>Fairall says the data from ATOMIC is ideal for such assessments, and he expects the findings will inform the upcoming 2021 comprehensive IPCC report. With the data from ATOMIC still being analyzed, scientists have not yet reached conclusions.</p><p>On the whole, however, these unprecedented research efforts to troubleshoot discrepancies in the latest models have already borne critical fruit. They are providing scientists with more insights, illustrating the crucial value of the scientific method, lending credibility to the capability of climate models, and helping build more confidence within the climate science community.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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If the forests of northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan keep secrets, it's only because people fail to listen. For about 500 years, since they moved to the region from the Northeastern U.S. and Canada, Anishinaabe tribes have built relationships and history with all beings in the region – from tall trees and moose to grains of sand and manidoonsag, which means "little spirits" in Ojibwe. Elders and tribal members who have taken the time to observe the landscape have witnessed their community members, both human and otherwise, adapt to harsh winters, wildfires, storms, pest outbreaks, and the arrival of Europeans.
<h5></h5>
<p>Now they are recognizing the impacts of climate change on their communities. They can taste it in the way that the flavor of beaver worsens sooner as springs warm up earlier in the calendar year. They have heard it in the way the wind blows through <a href="https://www.glifwc.org/publications/pdf/Goodberry_Brochure.pdf" target="_blank">declining beds of manoomin</a>, or wild rice. There have been more obvious changes, too. Intense storms have washed out bridges and eroded the shores of small lakes and Lake Superior.</p><p>Despite limited financial resources, tribes in the region have prioritized a holistic kind of climate adaptation that is rooted in traditional values of relationship-building and observation. By taking their time, tribes have been proactive while striving to adapt in a way that aligns with their values and that is conscious of a scope and timescale much larger than one human life. As tribes do this work, they come up against the limitations of operating within a cultural system in the U.S. that is often diametrically opposed to the Anishinaabe worldview.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM4MTA1My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzOTU3NzA5M30.Wexlhj9QBtfHi3VHWDsldUMAIVUcHS-FGsYLYuuMdPk/img.jpg?width=980" id="47fc3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="92094ec44f0ca21edc4f8066bfd95fef" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Leading on Climate Change
<p>In 2007, Wayne Dupuis, the environmental program manager of the <a href="http://www.fdlrez.com/" target="_blank">Fond du Lac Band of Lake Superior Chippewa</a>, approached the tribal council about adding the goals of the <a href="https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol" target="_blank">Kyoto Protocol</a> into the tribe's resource management planning. They agreed. A year later, the <a href="https://www7.nau.edu/itep/main/tcc/Tribes/gl_gpchippewa" target="_blank">Grand Portage Band of Lake Superior Chippewa</a>, in far northeastern Minnesota, was the second tribe in the U.S. to begin an adaptation plan. The majority of tribes in the region have since created or begun climate change monitoring and adaptation work.</p><p>Those timelines outpace many non-tribal communities in the Upper Midwest. The politically progressive county that houses Wisconsin's state capital did not create its <a href="https://daneclimateaction.org/" target="_blank">Office of Energy and Climate Change</a> until 2017.</p><p>Fifteen years ago in Grand Portage, the tribe began to notice and study the decline of brook trout in Trout Lake, a 61-acre lake on the reservation. Eventually the lake warmed so much that temperature-sensitive trout could no longer survive. The tribe restocked the lake with walleye and yellow perch, which thrive in warmer water. But Minnesota's Department of Natural Resources has not taken similar measures in other lakes in the northern part of the state.</p><p>"I think we're going to see a massive loss of trout species in northeastern Minnesota, and I think that the Minnesota DNR is going to have to really consider: Is it acceptable to have a whole bunch of lakes with no fish, or do we start trying to change to fish communities that are a bit more resilient?" asked Seth Moore, the director of biology and environment at the Grand Portage Band. "That's a no-brainer in my opinion. It almost feels like they're a decade late."</p>A Close Relationship With the Land
<p>The guiding force behind much of this early work is the Anishinaabe emphasis on the connectedness of all beings and actions.</p><p>"We are here because of our relationship with the land," Dupuis said. "In many of our stories, it's our relationship with the Earth and the animals, the swimmers, the flyers that needs to be in harmony, and if we skew that balance, bad things happen. So our relationship with the Earth is primary – to be aware of what we're doing and considerate in what we do."</p><p>Katy Bresette, a member of the Red Cliff Band of Lake Superior Ojibwe and an Ojibwe educator, said that it's important not to romanticize this practice as something mystical and far removed from a process that everyone is capable of. Looking at adaptation from the perspective of all members of the ecosystem and the connections between them helps create solutions that look beyond an individual human life.</p><p>"You have to understand that it's not necessarily about understanding whether changes are coming sooner," Bresette said. "It's just understanding that the changes exist and what they look like."</p><p>Ojibwe lands are particularly vulnerable to warming temperatures. The Northwoods lie in a transition zone between southern forests and the <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-s-a-boreal-forest-and-the-three-other-types-of-forests-around-the-world" target="_blank">boreal forests</a> of the north. Many of the region's cold-loving species, like paper birch and moose, are living in the southernmost reaches of their range. Warmer winters have already prompted the decline of some cold-weather species and the northerly migration of new species that were once killed off by the cold.</p><p>In addition to their inherent value as beings, many vulnerable species are culturally significant for their direct roles in tribal ceremonies and subsistence. Ash trees, threatened as warmer temperatures allow <a href="http://www.emeraldashborer.info/" target="_blank">emerald ash borer</a> to gain a stronger foothold in the forests, have long been used to make <a href="https://www.potawatomi.org/gun-lake-potawatomi-elder-and-his-family-of-black-ash-basket-weavers/" target="_blank">baskets</a>, fishing tools, pipe stems, and lacrosse sticks.</p><p>Alex Mehne, forest manager of the Fond du Lac Band, said that black ash trees – which are the dominant tree species in the area – are critical in maintaining water levels in wetlands. Black ash trees grow in large groups in forested wetlands, where they absorb water from the ground.</p><p>That process helps protect critical manoomin beds downstream, particularly as rainstorms get more intense. Manoomin is sensitive to water changes, especially in June and July. "If the water level goes too high the plant will drown, and if it goes too low it'll be destroyed," said Eric Andrews, climate change coordinator of the <a href="http://www.badriver-nsn.gov/" target="_blank">Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa</a>.</p><p>After an intense storm in 2012, the Fond du Lac manoomin crop failed.</p><p>As they noticed these vulnerabilities, Anishinaabe people began work to ease the coming changes. The Fond du Lac Band is experimenting with planting alternative wetland tree species to see if they could play a similar role in the ecosystem to the ash trees. So far, swamp white oak and silver maple seem to be succeeding.</p>Documenting Tribal Adaptation Strategies
<p>Tribal adaptation in the Northwoods depends upon collaborative relationships between tribes and other regional resource managers. Those relationships were essential in the creation of the 2019 Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu (TAM), a document that includes 14 different adaptation strategies that can be used to help guide climate planning. It was born from an inclusive, community-centered process that contrasts with Western-style approaches in the region.</p><p>The menu came into being after some tribal members were involved in a watershed adaptation workshop put on by the <a href="https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/niacs/" target="_blank">Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science</a>. The institute, which is a partnership of federal agencies, universities and conservation organizations, has developed a variety of "menus" that present climate change adaptation strategy options for forest managers. At the watershed menu workshop, tribal members realized that while the process was useful, it was missing important context for tribal planning, such as shared values and community engagement.</p><p>"Eventually it came out that we needed a whole separate menu," said Nisogaabo Ikwe Melonee Montano, a member of the <a href="http://redcliff-nsn.gov/" target="_blank">Red Cliff Band of Lake Superior</a> Ojibwe and the traditional ecological knowledge outreach specialist at the <a href="https://www.glifwc.org/" target="_blank">Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission</a>.</p><p>An essential part of creating this menu was establishing deep relationships and trust among the 19 creators of the document, who included both tribal and non-tribal members.</p><p>"Early on we kind of started joking with each other that it was actually the TAM fam," Bresette said. "There has been reciprocity here, and there has been love for each other."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM4MTExOC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzE0NjA5MX0.bAVslYvgnb2R8nSpzZ3fFr2NyldHBp-uoMfNYWo8HU4/img.jpg?width=980" id="101cd" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="bd0e2ddfa7d6354d89f2a27b157740ef" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>All decisions about what to include in the menu were made by consensus. The menu's stated values are specific to the Great Lakes Anishinaabe perspective, but it is intended to be a living document that helps other tribes and non-tribal communities create plans for managing the impacts of climate change.</p><p>Nikki Cooley, of the Diné (Navajo) Nation, manages the <a href="http://www7.nau.edu/itep/main/tcc/" target="_blank">Tribal Climate Change Program</a> at the Institute for Tribal Environmental Professionals at Northern Arizona University. She said that there has been a lot of interest in expanding the menu to include values and languages from other tribes.</p><p>"In all my time, whether it's been in Glennallen, Alaska, which is a super small town four hours from Anchorage, or on the shores of La Jolla beach in San Diego, the commonality is that tribes are always very concerned about how climate change is going to affect their culture," Cooley said.</p><p>Members of the TAM team emphasized that people should spend time observing the environment before implementing any of the strategies so that they can make decisions informed by elders and non-human members of the community.</p><p>"They're giving us the things that we need to know and understand," Bresette said. "We're the only ones who aren't in the classroom. We're the ones who aren't spending time on our lessons. We're the ones not doing our homework."</p>
Caught Between Conflicting Cultural Values
<p>The TAM process centered native voices, but that is not always the case, even in tribal projects. Additionally, choices made by neighboring landowners can complicate work that tribes are doing.</p><p>Climate program leaders and resource managers at Red Cliff, Bad River, and Fond du Lac noted how much time they spend trying to prevent resource extraction companies from damaging their environment.</p><p>Andrews at Bad River is particularly <a href="https://www.wpr.org/bad-river-tribe-files-federal-lawsuit-against-enbridge" target="_blank">concerned</a> about the Line 5 natural gas and oil pipeline, operated by Enbridge, a Canadian energy company. The Bad River is eroding where it crosses the pipeline, particularly as heavy rainstorms become more frequent. The erosion is expected to expose the pipeline and put it at increased risk of breaking – worrisome as downstream of the intersection of the river and pipeline are the Kakagon Sloughs, a protected wetland and wild rice bed. It is a critical resource for the tribe.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM4MTEyMi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NTQyNjc1Nn0.kySCYyDtiQA9rGiSzKtLSWuzRUy5ulJjSPxLk2IN6eA/img.jpg?width=980" id="ad084" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="fe44c8557837803d224fb2e812cc7ac0" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>Gidigaa-bizhiw (Jerry Jondreau), a member of the TAM team from the <a href="http://www.kbic-nsn.gov/" target="_blank">Keweenaw Bay Indian Community</a> who founded his tribe's forestry department, said that the practice of prioritizing the use of natural resources for financial gain over the health of the whole ecological community is incredibly frustrating. "We're fighting with a system that is essentially backwards," Gidigaa-bizhiw (Jondreau) said. "It's designed from that Western viewpoint."</p><p>Gidigaa-bizhiw (Jondreau), said that he often found himself the only indigenous voice in the room in forestry conversations. He said that traditional knowledge was often brushed off and that native voices need to be, at minimum, equally represented in order to be heard. Native communities, he said, have been doing the work of caring for the environment for millennia and that people with resources need to recognize that expertise and support it.</p><p>"Relinquish authority," Gidigaa-bizhiw (Jondreau) said. "If you have money, and you want it to go to a good place, then give it to the people that are doing this work and don't make them jump through 10,000 hoops to try to get this stuff, because then you spend all your time working on the damn grants and not doing the work."</p><p>The Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science demonstrated support for elevating the expertise of native communities in the Upper Midwest in their commitment to developing the TAM. And some in Wisconsin's state government express interest in doing the same. "We owe it to the first stewards of this land to listen to them, partner with them, and follow their lead in making Wisconsin a more sustainable and equitable place for everyone," Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes said via email.</p><p>Reginald DeFoe, the director of resource management for the Fond du Lac Band in Minnesota, remains deeply worried about the lack of leadership on climate action in the U.S. and the world.</p><p>"I think the only way out of this kind of mess is we can't look backwards and blame everyone for what happened. The only way is to look forward," DeFoe said. "But right now the leadership is on a different track; they want to exploit more resources – mining, oil – and it just goes on and on."</p>
<h5></h5><h5><br/></h5><p><em>Reposted with permission from<a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/by-paying-attention-tribes-in-the-northwoods-are-leading-the-way-on-climate-change/" target="_blank"> Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p><h5></h5><div></div><div></div>From Your Site Articles
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Mangrove Action Project video
Along many tropical shorelines, swampy mangrove forests create habitat for fish and buffer the impact of heavy waves.
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"Mangroves reduce the effects of climate change, protecting coastlines against erosion and rising sea levels and hurricanes or storm surge events," said Alfredo Quarto, cofounder of the <a href="https://mangroveactionproject.org/" target="_blank">Mangrove Action Project</a>.
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<p>He says mangrove forests also store a huge amount of carbon, so they help slow global warming.</p><p>But around the world, mangrove forests have been cut down for development and agriculture.</p><p>For example, in Thailand, vast areas were destroyed to make room for shrimp farms. Many of those farms have since been abandoned.</p>
<p>So Quarto's group is helping turn those shrimp ponds back into ecosystems where mangroves can thrive.</p><p>He says the work requires more than planting seeds. For example, the group works with local communities to repair and reconnect waterways, which helps mangroves regenerate on their own.</p><p>"We're trying to establish a kind of natural restoration that will bring back a healthy forest," Quarto said. "It's important for the wild fisheries. It's important for the health of the coast, the resilience of the coast, especially in times of climate change."</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/group-helps-turn-abandoned-shrimp-farms-into-carbon-storing-mangrove-ecosystems/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/r/entryeditor/2646162196#/" target="_self"></a></em><em></em></p>
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As restoration managers repair damaged corals, sound recordings can help jumpstart the process of restoring vibrant – and noisy – coral reef ecosystems. CC by 2.0
A healthy coral reef is a noisy place.
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<p>"You've got this constant crackling sound. … That's the sound of snapping shrimp," says Steve Simpson of the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom. "Then on top of that, pops, grunts, growls, trumpeting sounds, whooping sounds … and these are generally made by fish that are communicating with each other."</p><p>But Simpson says after damaging coral bleaching events – which are growing more common as oceans warm – that soundscape changes.</p><p>He says that when his team visited part of the Great Barrier Reef after a major bleaching event, "really to our shock, we found that the reef had gone quiet."</p>
<p>It was a sign that many sea creatures had left the area. Now Simpson's team is using sound to draw some of that life back.</p><p>At 11 locations in the Great Barrier Reef, they played recordings of a healthy reef ecosystem. After six weeks, they compared the fish life in those places with that in other areas. They found that twice as many fish had returned to the audio-enriched sites.</p><p>So Simpson says that as restoration managers repair damaged corals, sound recordings can help jumpstart the process of restoring vibrant – and noisy – coral reef ecosystems.</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/06/scientists-use-recorded-sounds-to-lure-fish-back-to-great-barrier-reef/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections.</a></em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Jackson Family Wines in California discovered that a huge amount of carbon pollution was caused by manufacturing wine bottles. Edsel Querini / Getty Images
Before you pour a glass of wine, feel the weight of the bottle in your hand. Would you notice if it were a few ounces lighter? Jackson Family Wines is betting that you won't.
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<p>The California winery started analyzing its carbon pollution in 2008.</p><p>"For us it was really eye opening," says Julien Gervreau, vice president of sustainability.</p><p>He says they discovered that a huge amount of carbon pollution was caused by manufacturing wine bottles.</p><p>"The big 'aha moment' that we saw around our emissions was really with glass," he says. "When you look at the supply chain for glass, it's a pretty energy- and emissions-intensive process."</p>
<p>So now, the winery not only invests in renewable energy and efficiency, it's reduced the weight of each glass bottle of its Kendall-Jackson and La Crema Lines by a couple ounces.</p><p>"And in addition to emissions savings, we saw a pretty significant financial savings associated with having to buy less glass," Gervreau says.</p><p>The winery was careful to avoid affecting the bottles' look and feel, and Gervreau says customers have not complained. Meanwhile, shipping and sales clerks appreciate lifting lighter cases.</p><p>So cheers! Here's to lighter wine bottles. And don't worry, there's still the same amount of wine inside.</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/05/california-winery-finds-a-clever-way-to-cut-carbon-pollution/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>
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Harmful algal blooms, seen here at Ferril Lake in Denver, Colorado on June 30, 2016, are increasing in lakes and rivers across the U.S. Helen H. Richardson / The Denver Post / Getty Images
During summer in central New York, residents often enjoy a refreshing dip in the region's peaceful lakes.
But sometimes swimming is off-limits because of algae blooms that can make people sick.
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<p>"Some of the algae may produce chemical toxins that can have harmful effects on people, fish, shellfish, terrestrial and marine mammals, and birds," says Jennifer Graham, a research hydrologist with the United States Geological Survey.</p><p>She says reports of harmful algal blooms are increasing across the country, and climate change could be part of the reason.</p><p>Some harmful algae prefer warm temperatures, so blooms may be growing more common as rivers and lakes warm.</p>
<p>Extreme weather can also contribute to algal blooms because heavy rain can cause nutrients to run off farm fields and sewage systems into waterways.</p><p>"Nutrients are basically the food source for algae," Graham says.</p><p>In New York's Finger Lakes and other locations across the country, the USGS is monitoring algal blooms.</p><p>Graham says they are trying to better understand toxic bloom growth and severity, so local agencies can make informed decisions about how to protect people.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/05/as-u-s-lakes-and-rivers-warm-reports-of-harmful-algal-blooms-are-on-the-rise/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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On average, there are more heat-related deaths in the U.S. each year than hurricane- or flood-related fatalities combined.
fotograzia / Getty Images
fotograzia / Getty Images
By Sara Peach
When your body gets too hot, you may experience a heat-related illness such as heat exhaustion or heat stroke. Such illnesses can be dangerous. In fact, on average, there are more heat-related deaths in the U.S. each year than hurricane- or flood-related fatalities combined.
But heat exhaustion and heat stroke are preventable. Read on for some do's and don'ts.
<p><strong>DO: Know the symptoms of heat stroke.</strong> According to the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/warning.html" target="_blank">CDC</a>, signs of heat stroke, also known as hyperthermia, include:</p><ul><li>Body temperature of 104 degrees Fahrenheit or more (40 degrees Celsius)</li><li>Fainting</li><li>Confusion</li><li>Fast and strong pulse</li><li>Dizziness</li><li>Skin that is hot to the touch. The skin may also be red, dry, or damp.</li><li>Upset stomach, nausea, or vomiting</li></ul>
<p><strong>DO: Call 911 immediately if someone is showing heat stroke symptoms.</strong> Heat stroke is a medical emergency. In the U.S., dial 911.</p><p>While you wait for help, the CDC recommends that you provide first-aid treatment:</p><ul> <li>Move the person to a cooler place out of the sun.</li><li>Cool the person by applying cold, wet cloths or by placing the person in a cool-water bath.</li></ul><p><strong>DON'T:</strong> Do not delay care, even if you are worried that the person may contract COVID-19, the disease caused by the novel coronavirus. Hospitals are working to protect patients during the pandemic, for example by limiting visitors and separating COVID-19 patients from others.</p><p><span></span><strong>DON'T:</strong> If a person is showing heat stroke symptoms, do not force them to drink water or other fluids.</p>
<p><strong>DO: Know the symptoms of heat exhaustion.</strong> Heat exhaustion is a less serious condition than heat stroke. But without treatment, it can progress to heat stroke, according to <a href="https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/heatrelated-illnesses-heat-cramps-heat-exhaustion-heat-stroke" target="_blank">Johns Hopkins Medicine</a>. The <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/disasters/extremeheat/warning.html" target="_blank">CDC</a> lists the following symptoms of heat exhaustion:</p><ul> <li>Heavy sweating</li><li>Cold, pale, and clammy skin</li><li>Fast, weak pulse</li><li>Nausea or vomiting</li><li>Muscle cramps</li><li>Tiredness or weakness</li><li>Dizziness</li><li>Headache</li><li>Fainting</li></ul><p><strong>DO: The CDC advises you to treat heat exhaustion by taking these steps:</strong></p><ul><li>Move to a cooler place out of the sun.</li><li>Remove or loosen your clothes.</li><li>Cool yourself by applying cold, wet cloths or by bathing in cool water.</li><li>Take sips of water.</li></ul><strong>DO: Seek immediate medical help if you experience any of these problems:</strong><ul><li>You vomit</li><li>Your symptoms worsen</li><li>Your symptoms do not go away within one hour</li></ul>
<p><strong>DO: To reduce the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, watch the forecast.</strong> Heat exhaustion and heat stroke are more likely to occur when the weather is hot, so monitoring the weather forecast is an important prevention step.</p><p>Keep in mind that asphalt and concrete absorb heat, so if you live in an urban area with many parking lots, buildings, and other structures, your block may be significantly warmer than other areas of your city.</p><p>High humidity is also dangerous. On hot days, you cool down as sweat evaporates from your skin. But when the air is very humid, sweat evaporates from your body only slowly, which prevents it from cooling itself effectively.</p><p>When you check the weather forecast, look for the heat index, a number that includes the effects of both temperature and humidity levels. If the heat index is 91 degrees Fahrenheit or higher, you should take steps to stay cool, according to the <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-exhaustion/symptoms-causes/syc-20373250?page=0&citems=10" target="_blank">Mayo Clinic</a>.</p><ul><li>Make sure to drink plenty of water. Avoid caffeine.</li><li>Wear light-colored, loose-fitting clothing.</li><li>Avoid exercising outdoors during the hottest times of the day.</li><li>If you are playing, exercising, or working outdoors, take breaks to cool down under shade.</li><li>If you supervise people who are playing or working in hot weather, offer them plenty of chances to take breaks and drink water.</li></ul>
<p><strong>DO: Seek shelter during heat waves.</strong> To stay healthy, your body needs a break from high heat and humidity. If you do not have air conditioning, seek shelter in air-conditioned buildings. Many communities offer cooling centers in libraries and other public spaces. But those buildings may be closed or have limited capacity because of the COVID-19 pandemic, so also consider these options:</p><ul> <li>Do you have friends or family members living in an air-conditioned building who would allow you to shelter with them?</li><li>Do you know someone who would allow you to borrow a window AC unit?</li><li>Is your local government offering window AC units or temporary shelter in spaces where self-isolation is possible, such as in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/climate/coronavirus-climate-change-heat-waves.html" target="_blank">hotel rooms</a>?</li></ul><p><strong></strong><strong>DO: Know who is most at risk for heat-related illnesses.</strong> Anyone may fall ill as a result of overheating, but some people are at special risk:</p><ul><li>Athletes</li><li>Outdoor workers</li><li>People who lack access to air conditioning</li><li>Children</li><li>People age 65 or older</li><li>People who take certain drugs. According to the <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/heat-exhaustion/symptoms-causes/syc-20373250?page=0&citems=10" target="_blank">Mayo Clinic</a>, some drugs may reduce your body's ability to maintain its temperature or hydration levels. Such drugs include beta blockers, diuretics, antihistamines, tranquilizers, antipsychotics, and others.</li></ul><div></div>
<p><strong>DO: Understand that global warming is making heat waves more frequent.</strong> Carbon pollution from vehicles, factories, and power plants is trapping extra heat in the Earth's atmosphere, much like an overly thick blanket can trap too much heat around you at night. That extra heat is making heat waves more frequent.</p><p>In the future, <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/2/" target="_blank">scientists expect</a> that days with high temperatures hotter than 90 degrees Fahrenheit will occur more often. That means that people and communities will need to take more care to prevent heat-related illnesses.</p><p><strong>DON'T:</strong> Even if you live in the northern U.S., don't assume you are immune from heat exhaustion and heat stroke.</p><p>As heat waves become more common, they are occurring even in places that usually experience cool summers, such as northern parts of the U.S. In fact, heat waves in those regions can be particularly dangerous because many buildings lack air conditioning.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from </em><a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/05/how-to-spot-the-symptoms-of-heat-stroke-and-heat-exhaustion/" target="_blank"><em>Yale Climate Connections</em></a>.</p>From Your Site Articles
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David Abazs, a farmer in northeastern Minnesota, has created a site-specific farming calendar based solely on natural events. youtu.be
As the climate warms, growing seasons are becoming more erratic. That uncertainty makes it harder for farmers to decide when to plant and harvest crops.
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<p>"We cannot rely, 'Oh, May 1st, we plant lettuce.' It just doesn't work that way anymore," says David Abazs, a farmer in northeastern Minnesota.</p><p>So instead Abazs is basing his decisions on natural signs of seasonal change, like when robins arrive in spring, the marsh marigold first flowers, or snow buntings migrate.</p><p>He's matched up records of those natural events with 30 years of his own planting and harvest data. That's allowed him to see which events are good signposts.</p><p>"So when the dandelion flowers, we might be planting potatoes and transplanting lettuce," he says.</p>
<p>After a few years of experimenting, Abazs has created a site-specific farming calendar based solely on natural events. This year, he plans to rely on that instead of traditional dates.</p><p>He's optimistic that the approach will help him maintain good harvests in a changing climate. And he says the process has been rewarding in other ways, too.</p><p>"It forces me to observe," he says. "And what's better for farming than for a farmer to be observant?"</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/05/farmer-creates-a-nature-based-crop-planting-calendar/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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