Solar Energy and Battery Storage to Comprise 81% of New Electricity Generation in U.S. for 2024: EIA

According to a recent analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), solar and battery storage is expected to dominate new electricity generation capacity for this year. 

In 2024, there are currently plans to add 62.8 gigawatts of utility-scale electric generating capacity, about 55% higher than the 40.4 gigawatts of capacity added last year.

New solar electric generating capacity is predicted to make up most of the share of new capacity added in 2024 at around 58%, and battery storage is expected to make up about 23%, according to EIA’s Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory.

Solar growth could nearly double last year’s numbers, reaching an added 36.4 gigawatts of new utility-scale electric generating capacity in 2024 compared to the 18.4 gigawatts of solar electric generating capacity added in 2023. Initially, there were 29.1 gigawatts of planned solar development for 2023. Solar had been on the rise from 2010 to 2021, but then declined from 2021 to 2022. Now, it is back on the rise with this year’s predictions.

“As the effects of supply chain challenges and trade restrictions ease, solar continues to outpace capacity additions from other generating resources,” EIA reported.

Most of the new solar capacity projects are slated for three states, with 35% in Texas, 10% in California and 6% in Florida. However, what will become the largest solar project in the U.S., the Gemini solar power plant in Clark County, Nevada, will begin operations this year, further giving solar capacity a boost. The Gemini plant is expected to provide 690 megawatts in solar capacity and 380 megawatts of battery storage.

The outlook for increasing battery storage is also good for 2024. In addition to the new battery storage capacity at the Gemini plant, battery storage capacity is expected to grow 14.3 gigawatts this year, what would be a record for annual capacity growth. The battery storage planned for 2024 will add to an existing 15.5 gigawatts of battery storage capacity in the U.S.

Texas and California will lead in new battery storage capacity, adding 6.4 gigawatts and 5.2 gigawatts, respectively. One notable project for new battery storage capacity includes Menifee Power Bank, which will replace a former natural gas plant in Riverside, California, EIA reported.

“With the rise of solar and wind capacity in the United States, the demand for battery storage continues to increase,” EIA stated. “The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has also accelerated the development of energy storage by introducing investment tax credits (ITCs) for stand-alone storage. Prior to the IRA, batteries qualified for federal tax credits only if they were co-located with solar.”

The report also outlined predictions for wind, natural gas and nuclear electric generating capacities. Wind is seeing a slowdown in planned projects for this year, following record growth in 2020 and 2021. Planned natural gas capacity for 2024 is the lowest it has been in 25 years, according to EIA, with 2.5 gigawatts slated for this year. As for nuclear capacity, a new reactor at one plant, the Vogtle nuclear power plant in Georgia, is expected to start operating this year with 1.1 gigawatts of capacity.