Planet Will Warm as Much as 3.1°C Under Current Policies: UN Report

Without greater action, the planet will warm as much as 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to the latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) Emissions Gap Report: No more hot air … please!.

In the coming round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), countries must commit to slashing their collective yearly greenhouse gas emissions by 42 percent by the end of the decade and by 57 percent by 2035, a press release from UNEP said.

Otherwise, the annual report says, the chance of meeting the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global heating to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average will disappear within a few years.

“The emissions gap is not an abstract notion. There is a direct link between increasing emissions and increasingly frequent and intense climate disasters,” said UN Secretary-General António Guterres in a video message. “Today’s Emissions Gap report is clear: we’re playing with fire; but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time. Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”

The report found that failing to increase the ambition of new NDCs and immediately starting to deliver on them would place the planet on a course for an increase in temperature from 2.6 to 3.1 degrees Celsius this century, bringing debilitating impacts to people, the environment and economies.

“The 2.6°C scenario is based on the full implementation of current unconditional and conditional NDCs. Implementing only current unconditional NDCs would lead to 2.8°C of warming. Continuing with current policies only would lead to 3.1°C of warming,” UNEP said in the press release. “Adding additional net-zero pledges to full implementation of unconditional and conditional NDCs could limit global warming to 1.9°C, but there is currently low confidence in the implementation of these net-zero pledges.”

The report also looked at what would be needed to limit global heating to less than two degrees Celsius. For this to be possible, emissions would need to fall by 28 percent by the end of the decade and 37 percent by 2035, compared to 2019 levels.

“Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilization on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges – or the 1.5°C goal will soon be dead and well below 2°C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP’s executive director, in the press release. “I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway.”

Andersen said that, even if the planet isn’t kept to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, the goal of a net-zero world must continue. 

“Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot,” Andersen said.

The world has currently warmed by roughly 1.3 degrees Celsius, reported Reuters.

“We are teetering on a planetary tight rope,” Guterres warned in the video message, as UN News reported. “Either leaders bridge the emissions gap or we plunge headlong into climate disaster, with the poorest and most vulnerable suffering the most.”

The report demonstrated that it is technically possible for as much as 31 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be cut by 2030 — roughly 52 percent of 2023 emissions — and 41 gigatons by 2035. These reductions would lead to warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius for both time-frames at less than $200 for each ton of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Increasing wind energy and solar photovoltaic technologies could provide 27 percent of the total potential reduction by 2030 and 38 percent by 2035.

The report said action on forests could provide roughly a fifth of the potential reduction for both years. Other strong courses of action include electrification; fuel changes; and efficiency measures in the transportation, industry and building sectors.

“This potential illustrates it is possible to meet the COP28 targets of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, transitioning away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting and restoring nature and ecosystems,” the press release said.

In order to reach net-zero, a minimum six-fold boost to mitigation investment will be needed, backed by international cooperation, reform of the world’s financial structure and strong private sector action.

UNEP said it is an affordable proposition, with an estimated incremental investment of $0.9 to 2.1 trillion each year from 2021 to 2050. The world’s financial markets and the global economy have an annual worth of $110 trillion.

“The G20 members, responsible for the bulk of total emissions, must do the heavy lifting. However, this group is still off track to meet even current NDCs. The largest-emitting members will need to take the lead by dramatically increasing action and ambition now and in the new pledges,” UNEP said.