Trump’s Plans to Repeal Climate Policies Could Cost U.S. $50 Billion in Lost Exports, Forfeit Clean Energy Economy to Other Countries

A new report by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University explains the high cost that would come to the U.S. if the incoming Trump administration repeals existing climate policies.

According to the report, Donald Trump’s plans to undo climate policies would cost the U.S. billions of dollars. Rolling back policies such as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) would create lost opportunities for U.S. manufacturing and trade, leading to job losses, tax revenue declines and losses in exports, the report authors said.

“Our scenario analysis shows that U.S. repeal of the IRA would, in the most likely scenario, harm U.S. manufacturing and trade and create up to $80 billion in investment opportunities for other countries, including major U.S. competitors like China,” the authors wrote. “U.S. harm would come in the form of lost factories, lost jobs, lost tax revenue, and up to $50 billion in lost exports.”

As The Guardian reported, these repealed policies would lead to a loss of opportunities in clean energy for the U.S., while China and other nations will gain money and power when it comes to developing solar and wind energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, battery storage and more. 

In 2023, China already installed more solar panels in one year than the U.S. has in total. As of July 2024, Global Energy Monitor found that China had projects with about 180 gigawatts of utility-scale solar power and 159 gigawatts of wind power in progress, which is about double the capacity of utility-scale renewables under construction compared to the rest of the world.

Even if the U.S. invests more in fossil fuels and strips back investments and progress in clean energy projects under the new administration, the rest of the world is continuing the transition to clean energy, which has already led to economic gains globally. As the International Energy Agency (IEA) reported, clean energy made up 10% of economic growth in 2023, and clean energy accounted for about 80% of new electricity capacity additions last year. There has also been a growth in electrified transportation, with one in five cars sold globally being EVs.

The U.S. will continue to add more renewable energy as it becomes more affordable, but rolling back subsidies and policies on clean energy will mean the country needs to import these products rather than producing them, the report authors warned.

“The U.S. will still install a bunch of solar panels and wind turbines, but getting rid of those policies would harm the U.S.’s bid for leadership in this new world,” Bentley Allan, co-author of the report and an environmental and political policy expert at Johns Hopkins University, told The Guardian. “The energy transition is inevitable and the future prosperity of countries hinges on being part of the clean energy supply chain. If we exit the competition, it will be very difficult to re-enter.”