Quantcast

Time to Rethink Roads: Millennials Lead Change in Transportation Trends

Health + Wellness

Ohio PIRG Education Fund

Photo courtesy of Shutterstock

As the average number of miles driven by Americans heads into its eighth year of decline, a new report from the Ohio PIRG Education Fund finds that the slowdown in driving is likely to continue. Baby boomers are moving out of the phase in their life when they do the most commuting, while driving-averse millennials move into that phase. These demographic changes will likely keep driving down for decades, according to the report, A New Direction: Our Changing Relationship with Driving and the Implications for America’s Future.
 
“The driving boom is over,” said Tabitha Woodruff, advocate for the Ohio PIRG Education Fund. “The constant increases we saw in driving up until 2004 show no sign of returning. As more and more millennials become adults, and their tendency to drive less becomes the norm, the reduction in driving will be even larger.”­


Miles driven per capita peaked in 2004; the total number of miles driven by Americans peaked in 2007. The average American currently drives no more miles than at the end of President Clinton’s first term.
 
The millennial generation is leading the change in transportation trends. Sixteen to 34-year-olds drove a whopping 23 percent fewer miles on average in 2009 than in 200—the greatest decline in driving of any age group. In addition, millennials are more likely to want to live in urban and walkable neighborhoods and are more open to non-driving forms of transportation than the older generation of Americans.
 
“A preference for urban living, combined with the increasing viability of transportation alternatives, has meant that cars are no longer the automatic choice for young people,” said Mia Young, a senior at Oberlin College in Loraine County.
 
The report found that under any reasonable scenario, the number of miles driven annually will be far fewer in the future than if baby boom trends had continued. During the second half of the twentieth century low gas prices, rapid suburbanization and an ever-increasing number of women commuters entering the workforce fueled the driving boom. The factors that defined that period have since taken a back seat. Under some conservative scenarios outlined by the report, driving won’t ever regain its 2007 peak during the range of the study, which extends to 2040.


Yet, official forecasts of future vehicle travel continue to assume steady increases in driving, despite the changing trends seen over the past decade. Those forecasts are used to justify spending vast sums on new and expanded highways, even as repairs to existing roads and bridges remain neglected.
 
“Our transportation leaders need to wake up to the momentous changes that have taken place over the last decade,” said Woodruff. “The infrastructure we build today will mainly be used and paid for by the millennials who are leading the trend away from driving.”

The report examines a number of high-profile official transportation forecasts and finds a consistent pattern of overestimating how much Americans will drive and only partially revising those forecasts when they prove to be incorrect. The government forecasts examined all fall above even the most conservative scenarios forecast in the report and all seem to be based on the assumption that the driving boom’s state of ongoing growth will last forever.­­

The change in driving trends will have huge implications for many aspects of Americans’ travel life:

• Coupled with improvements in fuel efficiency, reduced driving means Americans will use about half as much gasoline and other fuels in 2040 than they use today, making the real value of gas taxes fall as much as 74 percent. Gas taxes provide the chief source of federal transportation funds and a major source for many states.
• Traffic congestion will be less of a problem.
• Toll roads will be less financially viable.
• Many highway expansion projects will start to look like wasteful boondoggles.
• Forms of travel that are expanding in use, like public transit, will be a better investment.

“Given the magnitude of these trends and the implications for the future, we need to press the reset button on our transportation policy,” said Woodruff. “Public officials can’t just stay on the only course they’ve known. They need to learn from current trends to rethink whether it’s worth building all those extra highway miles that were planned based on an obsolete understanding of future driving trends.”

Visit EcoWatch’s HEALTH page for more related news on this topic.

 

Show Comments ()

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter

Aerial view of the explosion site of a chemical factory on March 22 in Yancheng, Jiangsu Province of China. Caixin Media / VCG / Getty Images)

At least 47 people have died in an explosion at a plant in Yancheng, China Thursday run by a chemical company with a history of environmental violations, Sky News reported.

Read More Show Less
A fishmonger in Elmina, a fishing port in the Central Region of Ghana. Environmental Justice Foundation

By Daisy Brickhill

Each morning, men living in fishing communities along Ghana's coastline push off in search of the day's catch. But when the boats come back to shore, it's the women who take over.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
Pexels

By Sam Nickerson

Links between excess sugar in your diet and disease have been well-documented, but new research by Harvard's School of Public Health might make you even more wary of that next soda: it could increase your risk of an early death.

The study, published this week in the American Heart Association's journal Circulation, found that drinking one or two sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) each day — like sodas or sports drinks — increases risk of an early death by 14 percent.

Read More Show Less
Krystal B / Flickr

Tyson Foods is recalling approximately 69,093 pounds of frozen chicken strips because they may have been contaminated with pieces of metal, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced Thursday.

The affected products were fully-cooked "Buffalo Style" and "Crispy" chicken strips with a "use by" date of Nov. 30, 2019 and an establishment number of "P-7221" on the back of the package.

"FSIS is concerned that some product may be in consumers' freezers," the recall notice said. "Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase."

Read More Show Less
Pixabay

By Hrefna Palsdottir, MS

Cold cereals are an easy, convenient food.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
A tractor spraying a field with pesticides in Orem, Utah. Aqua Mechanical / CC BY 2.0

Environmental exposure to pesticides, both before birth and during the first year of life, has been linked to an increased risk of developing autism spectrum disorder, according to the largest epidemiological study to date on the connection.

The study, published Wednesday in BMJ, found that pregnant women who lived within 2,000 meters (approximately 1.2 miles) of a highly-sprayed agricultural area in California had children who were 10 to 16 percent more likely to develop autism and 30 percent more likely to develop severe autism that impacted their intellectual ability. If the children were exposed to pesticides during their first year of life, the risk they would develop autism went up to 50 percent.

Read More Show Less
The ExxonMobil Torrance Refinery in Torrance, California. waltarrrr / Flickr

ExxonMobil could be the second company after Monsanto to lose lobbying access to members of European Parliament after it failed to turn up to a hearing Thursday into whether or not the oil giant knowingly spread false information about climate change.

The call to ban the company was submitted by Green Member of European Parliament (MEP) Molly Scott Cato and should be decided in a vote in late April, The Guardian reported.

Read More Show Less
Bernie Sanders holds his first presidential campaign rally at Brooklyn College on March 02 in Brooklyn, New York. Kena Betancur / VIEWpress / Corbis. Getty Images

Bernie Sanders has become the first contender in the crowded 2020 Democratic presidential primary field to pledge to offset all of the greenhouse gas emissions released by campaign travel, The Huffington Post reported Thursday.

Read More Show Less