Status of carbon pricing worldwide. IETA
Worldwide, carbon pricing has become a cornerstone policy tool for tackling climate change. Regions pricing carbon have grown exponentially since 2009—with the majority of this “bottom-up" growth taking the form of greenhouse gas cap-and-trade programs.
According to the International Carbon Action Partnership's Status Report 2016, 40 percent of global GDP is covered by an emissions trading system (ETS)—a figure projected to increase to 49 percent in 2017. By this time next year, some 16 percent of global emissions will be covered by ETS, up from only 4 percent in 2004. Eyes are especially glued to emerging market developments across the Pacific Rim, including the world's largest GHG emitter, China, which plans to launch a national cap-and-trade program in 2017.
At the international level, additional momentum for carbon markets came with the adoption of the Paris agreement at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Article 6 of the final agreement signals a clear role that markets will play to help countries reach their national post-2020 climate targets (or “Nationally Determined Contributions" in UNFCCC speak). Specifically, Article 6 allows for cooperative efforts or emissions trading among “bottom-up" carbon markets and sets the general framework for a new UN global crediting mechanism to support sustainable development.
Paris also resulted in 18 national signatories, including the U.S., Canada and Mexico, to the New Zealand-led Ministerial Declaration on Carbon Pricing. The joint declaration supports the role of markets in the Paris agreement and will see signatories collaborate to on future market design, linking and common standards, rules and best-in-case tools.
On April 22, a number of countries will reconvene when the Paris agreement officially opens for ratification. This high-level New York ceremony is an important milestone, signaling the dawn of a new era for global climate cooperation and action. But after New York, the real work begins: negotiators now face a mountain of agreement implementation activities (e.g., form and governance of a new UN sustainable crediting mechanism) and governments must now follow through on national measures to achieve promised climate targets.
Today's action-packed North American carbon landscape gives reason for optimism. However, the regional fragmentation—combined with ebbs and flows of policy, politics and macro-economic trends—reminds us that considerable uncertainty remains to (and through) 2020.
The continent is characterized by a “mixed-bag" of subnational carbon pricing policies. In British Columbia, we see a carbon tax alongside a newly-implemented benchmark ETS (with only BC-based offsets) for growing industrial emissions. In Alberta, we see a long-standing, but now swiftly-evolving, benchmark ETS (with only Alberta-based compliance offsets) for facilities emitting more than 100 kt CO2 a year. We also have cap-and-trade programs in California-Quebec (and soon to be Ontario and Manitoba) and the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, covering power sector only emissions across nine U.S. North East states.
Nationally, Canada has entered into a brave new climate world with a changing of the guard at the federal level. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met with all 10 Canadian provincial and territorial Premiers in early March, resulting in the Vancouver Declaration—an agreement that commits federal and provincial governments to collaborate on a Pan-Canadian climate plan, which includes a future carbon pricing approach. Canadian leaders will reconvene in October 2016 to finalize the plan.
Beyond those listed above, many states are exploring emissions trading (or “trading ready") options to help meet future compliance with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan (CPP) rules. But, in a recent blow to some of this state-level momentum, February saw an unexpected decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to “stay" further CPP action by the federal Agency. As a result, states are no longer required to submit their initial CPP compliance plans until outstanding legal questions, namely related to EPA exceeding its regulatory authority, are resolved—questions unlikely to be answered until 2017 or 2018.
In the meantime, developments at the subnational level will continue to define North America's climate landscape:
- Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is moving forward with its comprehensive 2016 program review to map-out post-2020 cap-and-trade program modifications and CPP compliance options. California is also in the midst of exploring potential amendments to its cap-and-trade program for CPP compliance purposes, which are expected to be implemented mid-to-late 2017.
- California is also developing its 2030 Target Scoping Plan, expected to be adopted by late 2016. Alongside this process, the state is considering a suite of amendments to its cap-and-trade regulation while discussing linkage with potential jurisdictional partners.
- Washington will soon release a revised draft Clean Air Rule, expected to be market-based, with trading and offsets to limit carbon pollution.
In late-February, Ontario unveiled its provincial cap-and-trade regulatory proposal and enabling legislation. The province plans to hold its first allowance auction in March 2017, then link to Quebec and California as soon as possible and practical.
Another U.S. federal twist was added when, mere days after the Supreme Court decision, Justice Antonin Scalia, one of the strongest Court opponents to CPP, passed away. The plan's future now becomes entangled with the highly-politicized process of nominating Scalia's replacement amid a heated election year.
Although North America has been slow to embrace emissions trading as a tool to fight climate change, the swell of activity in recent years is encouraging. The fact that more policymakers are turning to markets instead of other pricing instruments is testament to the many virtues of cap and trade, such as lower cost, flexibility and achievement of environmental goals. The stage is set for markets to get even bigger in the Americas and beyond.
Katie Sullivan is the director of The Americas and Climate Finance at the International Emissions Trading Association.
By Gudrun Heise
Just as scientists are scoring successes in coronavirus research, new problems are on their way. Fall is with us and winter is around the corner, so the season for colds and flu has begun — joining COVID-19.
Influenza Vaccination<p>A flu vaccination may thus be able to narrow down the diagnostic options when flu-like symptoms occur, but whether such a vaccination also has an influence on the behavior of the dangerous new virus is — like so much else — not clear. "It is conceivable that there is an indirect effect. But it is, I believe, a matter of speculation whether it has an immunological effect in the narrower sense," says Krause.</p><p>Every winter, doctors' waiting rooms are full of people who are coughing and sniffing but who mostly turn out to have only a severe respiratory infection. According to current knowledge, the virus that causes COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, is also likely to be subject to seasonal fluctuations. </p><p>In winter, cold viruses, at least, flourish because cold and dry air offers ideal conditions for their spread. In addition, it becomes more difficult to air rooms regularly and intensively — an important further measure to counteract the coronavirus and contain to some extent the danger posed by aerosols.</p><p>According to the <a href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Home/homepage_node.html" target="_blank">Robert Koch Institute, Germany's public health agency</a>, between 5% and 20% of people in Germany become infected with flu viruses every year. These viruses are also dangerous and can be fatal. The flu vaccination must be adapted to the influenza viruses every year, because they mutate. But at least there is a vaccination.</p><p>Most experts agree that there is unlikely to be a vaccine against the coronavirus by the time the next wave of influenza comes around. And even if a vaccine were to be approved, many unknowns remain.</p>
COVID-19 and Flu Simultaneously<p>For example, there is a lack of practical experience in dealing simultaneously with SARS-CoV-2 and influenza. It is possible to speculate that having influenza could facilitate the entry of the coronavirus into the human body. "The general weakening of the immune system during an influenza infection could increase the susceptibility of a patient to a SARS-CoV-2 infection," Krause says.</p><p>However, it is uncertain how dangerous this double infection could ultimately be and what can be done about it. Krause is of the opinion that we must arm ourselves against all three diseases — colds, flu and COVID-19. If we have a cold, bed rest, hot tea and cough medicine usually help. We can get vaccinated against flu. But how do we deal with COVID-19?</p><p><span></span>Probably people can only hope that if they get the illness, they will have a mild form with as few after-effects as possible. Here, it will certainly help to stick to suggested rules on hygiene to reduce or prevent our exposure to the virus. In an interview with DW, Bonn-based virology professor Hendrik Streeck made it clear that COVID-19 usually takes a more severe course when there is a high viral load at infection.</p>
Hygiene, Hygiene, Hygiene<p>The same hygiene measures with which we are trying to get at least some kind of grip on COVID-19 also apply to influenza. The less we come into contact with viruses, the greater the chance that we will be spared an infection or that it will be mild.</p><p>These measures include general hygiene precautions such as frequent hand washing and the wearing of protective face masks. "The various hygienic measures against COVID-19 will also reduce the spread of influenza," says Krause. "Possibly, further connections of a more immunological nature will be discovered."</p><p>Let us hope that is the case, because the flu season hasn't even started.</p>
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Back in March, when the pandemic had just planted its roots in the U.S., President Donald Trump directed the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to do something devastating: The agency was to indefinitely and cruelly suspend environmental rule enforcement. The EPA complied, and for just under half a year, it provided over 3,000 waivers that granted facilities clemency from state-level environmental rule compliance.