The Orangutans in Indonesia have been known to be on the verge of extinction as a result of deforestation and poaching.
Ulet Ifansasti / Getty Images News
Ulet Ifansasti / Getty Images News
By Edward Davey
The world is vastly underestimating the benefits of acting on climate change. Recent research from the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate finds that bold climate action could deliver at least $26 trillion in economic benefits through 2030. This ground-breaking research, produced by the Global Commission and more than 200 experts, highlights proof points of the global shift to a low-carbon economy, and identifies ways to accelerate action in five sectors: energy, cities, food and land use, water and industry. Our blog series, The $26 Trillion Opportunity, explores these economic opportunities in greater detail.
<p>There's a "<a href="https://www.theforgottensolution.org/" target="_blank">forgotten solution</a>" for achieving major economic, development and climate gains—transforming the way the world feeds itself and manages its land.</p><p>At this week's UN General Assembly, members of the <a href="https://www.foodandlandusecoalition.org/" target="_blank">Food and Land Use Coalition</a> will meet with heads of state and CEOs to raise the profile of this issue and encourage greater action. They have new research to support their case. The <a href="https://newclimateeconomy.report/2018/food-and-land-use/" target="_blank">food and land use chapter</a> of the <a href="https://newclimateeconomy.report/2018/" target="_blank">New Climate Economy's Global Opportunities Report</a> sets out how decisive action on food and land use is at the heart of the inclusive growth story of the 21st century. The report finds that more sustainable food and land use business models <a href="http://report.businesscommission.org/report" target="_blank">could be worth up to $2.3 trillion</a>, and that they're critical to delivering a more climate-secure and resilient world.</p><p>Five areas offer the most opportunity for action:</p><h3>1. Avoid deforestation and close the forest frontier.</h3><p>The first-order priority is to end deforestation by closing the "forest frontier" or intact forests, to development. If the world fails to protect its remaining tropical forests, keeping global temperature rise to 1.5 or 2 degrees C (2.7-3.6 degrees F)—the level the international community has agreed is necessary to prevent the worst climate impacts—<a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/09/news-forests-climate-summit-sustainability/" target="_blank">becomes almost impossible</a>.</p><p>Increased support for protected areas, indigenous peoples' rights and better land use planning and enforcement are fundamental steps. Securing indigenous rights to land tenure <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2016/10/protecting-indigenous-land-rights-makes-good-economic-sense" target="_blank">makes strong economic</a> (as well as moral) sense. <a href="https://www.wri.org/publication/ending-tropical-deforestation-elusive-impact-deforestation-free-supply-chain-movement" target="_blank">Further progress</a> on the deforestation-free supply chain movement is also urgently needed, both in terms of scaling up implementation by companies that have already made commitments, as well as in <a href="https://www.tfa2020.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/47530_Emerging-markets_consumers_and_deforestation_report_2018.pdf" target="_blank">bringing new companies and markets on board</a>.</p><h3>2. Increase agricultural productivity.</h3><p>There are significant gains to be made in increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring greater uptake of <a href="http://www.fao.org/gacsa/en/" target="_blank">climate-smart agriculture</a>. Across the world, farming practices can be made much more efficient and resilient by providing training services for farmers, strengthening smallholder cooperatives and investing in state-of-the art farming techniques. The closure of the forest frontier provides farmers with the incentive to intensify their production on existing land. Reforming global agricultural subsidies, currently worth $519 billion per year, could also lead to vastly better outcomes from the farming system. For example, incentives for cattle expansion in the Amazon <a href="http://www.zerodeforestationcattle.org/" target="_blank">could instead be reformed</a> to support investment in forest restoration or raising livestock in harmony with forests and other ecosystems.</p><h3>3. Restore forests and landscapes.</h3><p>There is a <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2017/12/restoration-one-most-overlooked-opportunities-economic-growth" target="_blank">major economic prize to be won</a> in restoring degraded forests and agricultural land. By allowing degraded forests to recover to natural forest, supporting agroforestry and other strategies, restoration could lead to economic gains of $35–40 billion per year within 15 years, as well as a myriad of social and environmental benefits. There are a number of measures to spur public and private sector investment in restoration, including incentives from national governments and multilateral development banks providing "first-loss guarantees" to investors committed to restoration.</p><h3>4. Reduce food loss and waste.</h3><p>One-third of all food produced is lost or wasted along the food chain, costing the global economy an estimated $940 billion annually and producing about 8 percent of global emissions. If food loss and waste were a country, it would rank as the world's third-largest emitter after China and the U.S.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
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</p><p>Saving just one-quarter of the food currently lost or wasted would be equivalent to the amount of food needed to feed 870 million people annually. It also makes good business sense: Recent research found that companies investing in food loss and waste reduction saw a median benefit-cost ratio of 14:1. Coalitions such as <a href="https://champions123.org/" target="_blank">Champion 12.3</a>, which brings together executives from business, government and organizations, have a critical role to play here.<br></p><h3>5. Improve diets.</h3><p>A comprehensive global effort to address the double burden of malnutrition and obesity will be critical to securing better and more inclusive growth in the 21st century. Across the world, almost a billion people suffer from inadequate diets and insecure food supplies. At the same time, current trends towards diets high in processed foods, refined sugars, fats, oils and red meat have resulted in more than 2.1 billion people becoming overweight or obese. This increase in collective body mass is strongly associated with the increased incidence worldwide of chronic non-communicable diseases, especially type II diabetes, coronary heart disease and some cancers. If current trends continue, these chronic diseases are predicted to account for two-thirds of the global burden of disease. The global economic cost of obesity alone was estimated to be <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/the-obesity-crisis" target="_blank">around $2 trillion in 2012</a>, roughly equivalent to the global cost of armed conflict or smoking.</p><p>Public policy and private sector action can deliver major changes here, whether through the use of economic instruments <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/07/health/obesity-chile-sugar-regulations.html" target="_blank">such as a "sugar tax,"</a> the issuance of public health guidelines such as the Chinese government's <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/overview/in-the-news/the-obesity-crisis" target="_blank">advice on reduced meat consumption</a>, or through innovative private-sector approaches such as <a href="https://www.wri.org/our-work/project/cool-food-pledge" target="_blank">The Cool Food Pledge</a>, <a href="https://www.wri.org/our-work/project/better-buying-lab" target="_blank">the Better Buying Lab</a> or <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/02/flavor-packed-burger-saves-many-emissions-taking-2-million-cars-road" target="_blank">blending mushrooms into burgers</a>.</p><h3>Better Economic Growth</h3><p>Action across these five areas would lead to better and more resilient economic growth. It would also make it more likely that the world will meet the <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/" target="_blank">Sustainable Development Goals</a> and the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement" target="_blank">Paris Agreement on climate change</a>. Despite much progress, there is still a great deal to be done—and a massive prize to be won.</p><p><em>Main image: A worker carries a Sumatran orangutan (Pongo abelii) as being prepared to be released into the wild at Sumatran Orangutan Conservation Programme's rehabilitation center on Nov.14, 2016 in Kuta Mbelin, North Sumatra, Indonesia. The Orangutans in Indonesia have been known to be on the verge of extinction as a result of deforestation and poaching. Found mostly in South-East Asia, where they live on the islands of Sumatra and Borneo, the endangered species continue to lose their habitat as a result of corporate expansion in a developing economy. Indonesia approved palm oil concessions on nearly 15 million acres of peatlands over the past years and thousands of square miles have been cleared for plantations, including the lowland areas that are the prime habitat for orangutans. </em></p>
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5 Reasons the World Wastes So Much Stuff (and Why It's Not Just the Consumer's Fault)
24 May 2018
Business
Taz / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
By Mathy Stanislaus
If you need motivation to skip the straw at lunch today, consider this: Scientists found that even Arctic sea ice—far removed from most major metropolitan areas—is no longer plastic-free. According to Dr. Jeremy Wilkinson of the British Antarctic Survey, "this suggests that microplastics are now ubiquitous within the surface waters of the world's ocean. Nowhere is immune."
<p>Humanity has a waste problem. Globally, we generate about <a href="http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTURBANDEVELOPMENT/Resources/336387-1334852610766/Chap3.pdf" target="_blank">1.3 billion tons</a> of trash per year, far more than we can properly process or recycle. This leads to environmental tragedies like ocean plastic pollution and geopolitical tensions, as Western countries <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/11/world/china-recyclables-ban.html" target="_blank">search</a> for new places to stash their trash.</p><p>Because we waste so much, we must extract unsustainable quantities of natural resources to keep pace with growing consumption. OECD has calculated that flow of materials through acquisition, transportation, processing, manufacturing, use and disposal are already responsible for approximately 50 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. The UN International Resources Panel projects the use of natural resources to more than double by 2050.</p><p>How did we get here? In short, most of our global economy is designed for linearity—take, make, waste—rather than circularity. To create a truly circular economy, the world must overcome the following five barriers:</p><h4>1. Meeting consumers' expectations for convenience.</h4><p>Imagine living your life without producing any trash. How would you do it? Bea Johnson, author of <em>Zero Waste Home</em>, coaches everyday people on how to live <a href="https://mashable.com/2018/04/27/zero-waste/#ZaT0EQO4CkqD" target="_blank">a trash-free life</a> through habits like bringing linen bags to the grocery store and buying rice, beans and other staples from bulk bins. The lifestyle she models was typical before disposable, single-use plastic products and packaging became the norm, but today we use <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/the-new-plastics-economy-rethinking-the-future-of-plastics" target="_blank">20 times</a> as much plastic as we did 50 years ago. Can we expect consumers to change the way they operate and the types of products they buy? Will they abandon commonplace conveniences like plastic bottles and bags?</p><p>These consumer choices matter, but much of the problem lies with the business and regulatory environment that keeps our economy running. Which brings me to the next four points…</p><h4>2. Government regulations can create waste.</h4><p>Sometimes, laws and regulations unintentionally incentivize wasteful behavior among companies and consumers. This is a common problem in the food and beverage sector. For example, expiration date labels are often required by law to protect the consumer, but may not account for differences in how food is stored—so the date label on <a href="http://ec.europa.eu/DocsRoom/documents/19742" target="_blank">eggs in Europe</a> may be labeled for pantry storage, but will last longer when refrigerated. Expiration dates are also often misunderstood to mean that a food is no longer edible, when in reality it is still safe to eat but may not meet the manufacturer's quality standards. (Good news: <a href="https://champions123.org/2017/09/20/release-companies-commit-to-simplify-food-date-labels-worldwide-by-2020-reducing-food-waste/" target="_blank">a consortium of companies</a> have agreed to fix this.)</p><h4>3. Many places lack proper waste infrastructure.</h4><p>Nearly <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/the-new-plastics-economy-rethinking-the-future-of-plastics" target="_blank">one-third of plastics</a> are not collected by a waste management system and end up as litter in the world's lands, rivers and oceans. There could be more plastics than fish in the ocean by 2050, shows <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/01/20/by-2050-there-will-be-more-plastic-than-fish-in-the-worlds-oceans-study-says/?utm_term=.31a01333983f" target="_blank">one study</a>. This problem is especially severe in developing countries that lack strong waste management infrastructure. <a href="https://oceanconservancy.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/full-report-stemming-the.pdf" target="_blank">More than half</a> of plastic litter comes from China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, so improving waste management and recycling systems in these countries could make a big difference in keeping plastic out of our natural spaces.</p><h4>4. Recycling technology isn't good enough.</h4><p>Most plastics that are recycled are shredded and reprocessed into lower-value applications, such as polyester carpet fiber; <a href="https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/the-new-plastics-economy-rethinking-the-future-of-plastics" target="_blank">only 2</a> percent are recycled into products of the same or similar quality. This is largely due to limitations in how plastics can be sorted by chemical composition and cleaned of additives. We need better recycling technology that can maintain quality and purity so that product manufacturers are willing to use recycled plastics. Once this technology is deployed at a large scale, we can start recapturing the economic value of plastics, incentivizing their recovery and recycling.</p><h4>5. We use the wrong business models.</h4><p>The world is on track to exceed 9.5 billion people by 2050, with far fewer living in poverty than today. Thanks to the rapid industrialization of developing countries like China, Brazil and India, the global middle class is exploding—meaning a lot more people want to buy a lot more stuff.</p><p>This is a human development victory, but a grave threat to our environment unless the businesses that produce and sell goods can reinvent how they do so. For example, clothing companies can lessen their environmental impacts by using non-toxic dyes and recycling cloth scraps. But to clothe the booming middle class within planetary boundaries, they will need to upend the current <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/07/apparel-industrys-environmental-impact-6-graphics" target="_blank">"fast fashion" business model</a> in favor of alternative models such as rental and resale. For example, Rent the Runway allows consumers to rent designer clothing for a fraction of the retail price. This service is great for consumers, and it benefits the planet because an item of clothing is used more than if it were sold to single buyer.</p><p>Companies should also design products for circularity. For example, when possible, recycling of Li-Ion batteries would be substantially enhanced by designing batteries with similar mixtures of chemicals.</p><h3>How Do We Overcome the Barriers? Partnerships Are Key</h3><p>The barriers listed here prevent companies, governments and consumers from solving our trash problem and making better use of natural resources. Each of these barriers must be overcome, but we cannot rely exclusively on companies, governments or consumers to do it all.</p><p>We need innovative public-private partnerships like the ones sought by platforms <a href="https://p4gpartnerships.org/" target="_blank">P4G</a> and <a href="https://www.weforum.org/projects/circular-economy" target="_blank">PACE</a>. Companies, investors, governments and civil society each offer unique financial, intellectual and operational assets that can be strategically deployed to solve big problems they couldn't solve alone. For example, <a href="https://ppp.worldbank.org/public-private-partnership/library/water-ppps-africa-2014" target="_blank">the World Bank found</a> that private-public partnerships to build water infrastructure in Africa were most effective when financed by a mix of private and public sources, since public funding reduced risk to private investors and private investors' return requirements improved efficiency and prevented cost overruns.</p><p>We need government policies that provide essential protections while fostering innovation and risk taking by the private sector to advance circular solutions. We also need to ensure that the most vulnerable in society have a strong voice in designing solutions so that their concerns for jobs and health are assured. This is an "all-hands-on-deck" moment in history—and early movers are likely to capture significant <a href="http://report.businesscommission.org/uploads/Executive-Summary.pdf" target="_blank">market opportunities</a>. The coalitions are forming. If you run a major company, investment vehicle or government agency, you should be securing your seat.</p>
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3 Things Cities Can Learn from Cape Town’s Impending 'Day Zero' Water Shut-Off
15 February 2018
Popular
Cape Town in South Africa.
By Betsy Otto and Leah Schleifer
Cape Town is running out of water. After three years of intense drought, South Africa's second-largest city is just a few months away from "Day Zero," the day when the city government will shut off water taps for most homes and businesses.
<p style="">The impacts of such a shutdown will be devastating. Citizens will have to wait in <a href="http://www.cbn.co.za/news/this-will-happen-when-cape-town-hits-day-zero" target="_blank">long lines</a> at state-managed distribution points to receive a mere 25 liters of water per day, less than half the water needed for one <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-15836433" target="_blank">average shower</a>. Experts are already warning of public health concerns like poor sanitation leading to <a href="https://qz.com/1200949/cape-town-water-crisis-poses-risk-to-public-health/" target="_blank">faster spreading of dangerous diseases</a>, especially for the city's poorest residents, and forecasting that <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-01134-x" target="_blank">pipes</a> may crack from dry conditions, endangering future water distribution if and when the drought ends. The Western Cape Premier has <a href="https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/opinionista/2018-01-22-from-the-inside-the-countdown-to-day-zero/#.WnjH_-jwbcu" target="_blank">warned</a> that "normal policing will be entirely inadequate" to manage the chaos that could ensue. </p><p style="">Although this instance is one of the most extreme, Cape Town is not the only city to suffer from intense water scarcity in recent years. From <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/3-maps-help-explain-s%C3%A3o-paulo-brazil%E2%80%99s-water-crisis" target="_blank">São Paulo</a> to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/nov/01/los-angeles-california-drought-shaming" target="_blank">Los Angeles</a>, cities around the world have made headlines due to severe <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/droughts">droughts</a> intensified by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/">climate change</a> and exacerbated by poor water management.</p><p>But it doesn't have to be this way. Here are three steps cities around the world should take to boost water security and resilience:</p><p style=""><strong>1. Understand Risks</strong></p><p style="">Many cities are experiencing growing water risks. Climate change is <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2016/07/clouds-head-poles-time-prepare-food-and-water-shocks" target="_blank">shifting cloud patterns</a> and the hydrologic cycle in certain regions, making rainfall more variable and droughts more common and intense. At the same time, the world's cities are growing at a rate of <a href="https://unhabitat.org/books/state-of-the-worlds-cities-20082009-harmonious-cities-2/" target="_blank">3 million people per week</a>, increasing competition over scarce resources.</p><p style="">Each city has unique risks it must be aware of. For example, Cape Town has medium-to-high inter-annual variability, meaning precipitation varies greatly from year to year. Although Cape Town has suffered droughts in the past, wet years usually follow, <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-towns-water-crisis-driven-by-politics-more-than-drought-88191" target="_blank">refilling reservoirs</a> that supply the city with almost all of its water. But during the current record drought, reservoir levels have fallen to <a href="https://af.reuters.com/article/commodities07News/idAFL8N1PJ1K5" target="_blank">25 percent</a>.</p>
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<p style="">In addition, Cape Town has extremely high water stress, which means that the water demands of its population—which has <a href="http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-south-africa-water-crisis-20180119-story.html" target="_blank">doubled</a> in the past 18 years—are competing for the available water supply with other users. While city officials were <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-towns-water-crisis-driven-by-politics-more-than-drought-88191" target="_blank">aware</a> of these risks and took steps to mitigate them, they did not anticipate rainfall patterns departing so significantly from the norm to culminate in record drought.<br></p>
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<p style="">Amidst rapidly changing landscapes, cities like Cape Town must carefully measure and forecast the impacts of climate change, population growth and competing demands on their water systems. Tools like<a href="file:///C:/Users/leah.schleifer/AppData/Local/Microsoft/Windows/INetCache/Content.Outlook/GBXCQ3BI/aqueduct.wri.org" target="_blank"> Aqueduct</a> and The Nature Conservancy's <a href="http://water.nature.org/waterblueprint/#/intro=true" target="_blank">Urban Water Blueprint</a> can help map the bigger picture, but risks will differ by watershed. Each city must ultimately assess its unique water risks and plan accordingly.<br></p><p style=""><strong>2. Manage Your Water Budget</strong></p><p style="">Cities have finite water resources, whether sourced from nearby watersheds, dams or pumped directly from underground. Where the water originates from differs by location—oftentimes a diverse set of users, such as power plants, farms and homes, compete for this same water. It's a city's job to manage its own water budget in the context of this broader landscape, understanding sources and uses, and allocating resources within these realities.</p><p>Water management becomes even more difficult in times of drought. For example, as the Western Cape's reservoirs began to dry in 2015 and 2016, the national government <a href="https://theconversation.com/cape-towns-water-crisis-driven-by-politics-more-than-drought-88191" target="_blank">allocated 40 percent</a> of the province's water to agriculture, leaving 60 percent to Cape Town. This controversial decision caused a great deal of debate in local politics, and is now seen as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saundersonmeyer-drought-commentary/commentary-in-drought-hit-south-africa-the-politics-of-water-idUSKBN1FP226" target="_blank">one of many culprits</a> for the current crisis. This situation is common for many cities, but leaves them fighting with other sectors when water supplies decline.</p><p style="">One solution is <a href="http://www.waterrf.org/resources/StateOfTheScienceReports/IntegratedUrbanWaterMgt_StateOfTheScience.pdf" target="_blank">for city planners and water utilities</a> to undertake <a href="http://www.gwp.org/globalassets/global/toolbox/publications/background-papers/16-integrated-urban-water-management-2012.pdf" target="_blank">proactive, integrated urban water management strategies</a> that consider drinking water, wastewater and urban drainage (stormwater) more comprehensively, <a href="http://www.switchurbanwater.eu/" target="_blank">helping cities</a> to build greater resilience and efficiency. This method also takes a holistic view of water sources and uses across a city, recognizing that the actions of every stakeholder impacts the others. Amid the nearly <a href="http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-g-california-drought-map-htmlstory.html" target="_blank">six-year</a> California drought, the city of Los Angeles began developing a <a href="https://www.planningreport.com/2017/05/07/one-water-la-update-regions-progress-building-resilient-water-supply" target="_blank">One Water plan</a> to better manage limited water resources, stave off the impacts of climate change, and slash the city's purchases of imported water by 50 percent.</p><p style=""><strong>3. Invest in Resilience</strong></p><p style="">To withstand a changing climate and growing populations, cities must be resilient to the unexpected. Identifying opportunities for rainwater harvesting, dams and underground storage, treating and reusing greywater and wastewater, and investing in water efficiency is key to boosting resilience to drought and increased water competition.</p><p style="">Cities should also look beyond their boundaries and invest in "natural infrastructure" for protection. Green spaces such as forests and wetlands <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/03/3-surprising-ways-water-depends-healthy-forests" target="_blank">can act as a sponge</a> by shielding cities from floods and storms and regulating flow during dry seasons. <a href="http://www.wri.org/sites/default/files/wri13_report_4c_naturalinfrastructure_v2.pdf" target="_blank">Research also shows</a> that pairing natural infrastructure with traditional "grey" infrastructure like wastewater treatment plants can help cities create jobs, buffer against the impacts of climate change and save money on water treatment.</p><p>Inadequate built and natural infrastructure compounded the effects of São Paulo's 2014-2017 drought. The city lost more than <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brazil-water/drought-ends-in-brazils-sao-paulo-but-future-still-uncertain-idUSKCN0VR1YJ" target="_blank">30 percent</a> of treated water through theft and leaky pipes. Deforestation of the Amazon disrupted the "<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/nov/28/sao-paulo-water-amazon-deforestation" target="_blank">rivers of the sky</a>" that regulate rainfall across Brazil, and loss of nearby Atlas forests also destroyed local water systems. São Paulo, Cape Town and other cities should consider <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/12/amazons-important-southeast-brazils-water-companies-need-watch-forests-closer-home" target="_blank">natural infrastructure</a> as one of many solutions for resilience to future water shocks.</p><p style=""><strong>A Call to Action for Cities</strong></p><p style="">The situation in Cape Town is unique in many ways, but there are common threads that tie it to São Paulo, Los Angeles and cities around the world facing growing water risks. In the countdown to Day Zero, the South African national government and the City of Cape Town are <a href="https://www.enca.com/south-africa/cape-towns-day-zero-moved-to-may" target="_blank">working hard</a> to help residents avoid the drought's worst effects. But other cities should also use this moment as a warning—without better water risk measurement, management and resilience, the next Day Zero could be coming to your corner of the world.</p>
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By Paula Caballero, David Waskow and Christina Chan
Two years after the world joined together to forge the Paris agreement on climate change, representatives from around the globe will convene in Bonn, Germany, on Nov. 6 for the next round of United Nations talks. The summit marks a critical stepping stone for global climate action.
This year's wave of climate-related natural disasters—hurricanes, floods and wildfires in developing and developing countries alike—drives home the urgency to move full speed ahead at the 23rd Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, known informally as COP23. Increasing public and private investment in the transition to clean energy and transport, in restoring forested areas, and in more sustainable cities demonstrate that significant inroads towards tackling climate change are being made at the national and local level. Countries are also reaffirming their commitment to climate action as a priority—both at home and internationally—including support for the Paris agreement demonstrated at the G7 and G20 summits and at the African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN).
<p style="">Steady progress, however, is not enough. Global greenhouse gas emissions need to start coming down quickly, peaking by 2020 and getting to net-zero by 2050, in order to meet the Paris goal of keeping global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) and optimally1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above pre-industrial levels. That means there is a small window of opportunity left to make the low-carbon transition in ways that are economically and technically manageable given the options we have today. COP23 must continue to strengthen an international climate regime that sends the right market signals, reaffirms support for more ambitious and transformational implementation, raises awareness of the growing impacts of climate change, and mobilizes an ever greater number of players to act now before it is too late to avoid the most severe consequences of a changing climate.</p><p style="">Here are four signs to look for at COP23:</p><p style=""><strong>1. Tangible and Constructive Progress on Making the Paris Agreement Operational</strong></p><p style="">The implementation guidelines of the agreement, sometimes referred to as the <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2017/07/insider-designing-rules-climate-action-game" target="_blank">rulebook</a>, will put the accord fully into motion when finalized at next year's climate summit in Poland. At Bonn, negotiators need to identify key decision points and the options for resolving them, along with an effective process for crafting clear rules and procedures on a wide range of issues. These include the transparency framework, which includes reporting and review requirements under the agreement, as well as the ambition mechanism to assess progress and ramp up action every five years.<strong></strong></p><p style=""><strong>2. A Strong Foundation for 2018, the First Moment under the Paris Agreement for Countries to Assess Progress and Signal their Readiness to Enhance Action</strong></p><p style="">Enhancing climate action every five years, informed by periodically taking stock of progress and identifying new opportunities for action, is a fundamental premise of the Paris agreement. COP 23 will set in motion the first of these stocktaking exercises next year during the 2018 facilitative dialogue—now called the <a href="https://wri.org/blog/2017/10/insider-clear-picture-emerging-talanoa-facilitative-dialogue-2018" target="_blank">Talanoa Dialogue</a>. The dialogue will assess global progress towards meeting the Paris long-term goals, highlight opportunities to step up action, and help spur countries to move forward on enhancing their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) by 2020.</p><p>In addition, events next year such as the <a href="https://globalclimateactionsummit.org/" target="_blank">Global Climate Action Summit</a> in September 2018, a gathering of states, cities, businesses and others, will also recognize the decisive role that these actors play and encourage even greater action. Other upcoming initiatives like the December climate finance summit organized by French President Emmanuel Macron will contribute to launching 2018 as a year of pivotal change, with a new momentum to put us on track to driving the investment and action needed to achieve a climate resilient future.</p><p style=""><strong>3. Heightened Attention to Climate Impacts and Vulnerability, and Concrete, Practical Steps to Help Vulnerable Countries and Communities</strong></p><p style="">As the first small island nation to preside over a global climate summit, the government of Fiji has made protecting the vulnerable a strong focus. Negotiators must agree on how to recognize efforts by developing countries to adapt to increasing climate impacts, evaluate effectiveness and mobilize greater support. That includes finance, as well as technology and capacity building. An important step at COP23 would be to formally link the Adaptation Fund, which has focused on building community-level resilience, to the Paris agreement. Negotiators also need to provide guidance on how to increase the <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/11/adaptation-short-changed-imbalance-climate-finance-commitments" target="_blank">share of adaptation finance</a> as developed countries scale up finance to meet their commitment to <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/10/insider-getting-100-billion-climate-finance-how-close-are-we" target="_blank">mobilize $100 billion a year by 2020</a>. Parties must also do more to address loss and damage from climate impacts, even as they recognize the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change.</p><p style=""><strong>4. A Growing Wave of Support from Non-state Actors Such as Cities, Businesses and Others</strong></p><p style="">Stakeholders outside the negotiations have emerged as critical partners in the fight against climate change. At COP23, look for businesses, states, cities and others around the world to demonstrate how they are intensifying their efforts, rallying around the Paris agreement and contributing to national climate goals. The overwhelming support for climate action from within the United States – despite the Trump administration's efforts to the contrary—is a prime example. States, cities and companies that make up more than half the U.S. economy have declared support for the Paris agreement. Rather than back away, they are stepping up, and together they have the potential to significantly move U.S. climate action forward.</p><p style="">At climate negotiations last year in Morocco, we witnessed <a href="http://www.wri.org/blog/2016/11/steely-determination-brings-progress-climate-talks-marrakech" target="_blank">the world's steely determination to advance climate action</a> despite any obstacles that may arise. COP23 is a time to carry that spirit forward and make concrete progress on structuring the Paris agreement. Moreover, it is an opportunity to set the stage for 2018 when countries can step up their response to the climate challenge and bequeath a livable world for future generations.</p>
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Hansen/UMD/Google/USGS/NASA tree cover data displayed on Global Forest Watch. Green pixels represent tree cover with greater than 20 percent canopy density but do not count trees outside of these pixels. Note, coarse pixels as shown above may be more efficient for rapidly detecting large scales of deforestation, while individual mapping techniques as described below may be more effective for monitoring land restoration and degradation.
By Katie Fletcher, Tesfay Woldemariam and Fred Stolle
No single person could ever hope to count the world's trees. But a crowd of them just counted the world's drylands forests—and, in the process, charted forests never before mapped, cumulatively adding up to an area equivalent in size to the Amazon rainforest.
Current technology enables computers to automatically detect forest area through satellite data in order to adequately map most of the world's forests. But drylands, where trees are fewer and farther apart, stymied these modern methods. To measure the extent of forests in drylands, which make up more than 40 percent of land surface on Earth, researchers from UN Food and Agriculture Organization, World Resources Institute and several universities and organizations had to come up with unconventional techniques. Foremost among these was turning to residents, who contributed their expertise through local map-a-thons.
<p><strong>Technical Challenges, Human Solutions</strong></p><p>Traditional remote sensing algorithms detect tree cover in a pixel rather than capturing individual trees in a landscape. That means the method can miss trees in less-dense forests or individual trees in farm fields or grasslands, which is most often the nature of dryland areas. </p><p><a href="https://www.google.com/earth/" target="_blank">Google Earth</a> collects satellite data from several satellites with a variety of resolutions and technical capacities. The dryland satellite imagery collection compiled by Google from various providers, including Digital Globe, is of particularly high quality, as desert areas have little cloud cover to obstruct the views. So while difficult for algorithms to detect non-dominant land cover, the human eye has no problem distinguishing trees in the landscapes. Using this advantage, the scientists decided to visually count trees in hundreds of thousands of high-resolution images to determine overall dryland tree cover.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xMDE4MzU3My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyODA3NTQ1NH0.zpcyRnMKHtDfORB3uZ1Hiewpy2heHcdKMLKOMAxTflk/img.jpg?width=980" id="d6b12" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="86fe39c7758b4f8c6cb387bb4f8e1e61" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image"><small placeholder="add caption..." class="image-media media-caption">Local knowledge helped researchers ground-truth desert forest tracking. </small><small placeholder="add photo credit..." class="image-media media-photo-credit">World Resources Institute<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/core/dashboard/editor/2468366213#/" target="_self"></a></small></p><p><strong>Local Map-a-thons Using Collect Earth</strong><br></p><p>Armed with the quality images from Google that allowed researchers to see objects as small as half a meter (about 20 inches) across, the team divided the global dryland images into 12 regions, each with a regional partner to lead the counting assessment. The regional partners in turn recruited local residents with practical knowledge of the landscape to identify content in the sample imagery. These volunteers would come together in participatory mapping workshops, known colloquially as "map-a-thons."</p><p>To lay the groundwork for the local map-a-thon events the team identified both an entry point, usually a university, that could help recruit participants, as well as a facility with the capacity and internet to host the map-a-thon. Once trained, any given analyst could identify 80 to 100 plots per day.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xMDE4MzU2MS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNjMzMjI1M30.-GFWMlSY0Xk2FNIzgkCPZmtuJRB8eTOMxEnwRKX-O3g/img.png?width=980" id="03d8c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8414328fcdd85b29baaa4a79d23f01e5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image"><small placeholder="add caption..." class="image-media media-caption">Example of Collect Earth grid set for data collection.</small></p><p>Quality control was carried out afterwards by comparing the identified land cover with the number of trees counted. For example, if a local participant identified an image as having just three trees but later identified the same image as forest, the researchers knew there was human error and further review was required.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xMDE4MzU2Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MDI2MTIwNH0.age5NaxMUDBFzhca7VKIBG_p631htZD7g8VQHc7b4Qg/img.jpg?width=980" id="c477a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a865424fcb9638f2ddff4d7ad551db57" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image"><small placeholder="add caption..." class="image-media media-caption">The Collect Earth tool allows users to navigate between multiple windows and select the best imagery for each particular data point.</small></p><p>These map-a-thons were designed so that people with first-hand knowledge of local landscapes could participate. No knowledge of remote sensing or any technology beyond internet literacy was required. The expertise needed was the understanding of regional landscape and land use. This practical knowledge of the region was critical as the participants were not only able to count individual trees but also identify the type of land use and trees they saw on the Google Earth images.<br></p><p>This research only "discovered" new forest in the sense that Columbus "discovered" the New World. The drylands forest was always there, and the people who live in the area always knew it was there. In fact, they were the only ones who had the background knowledge to identify subtleties like whether an image of a plant in their region was a shrub or actually a young tree, or if what appeared to be a tree was just a perennial plant. A few common perennial crops, including coffee and banana, looked like shrubs in the satellite images, but local participants had no problem identifying them correctly as perennial crops instead of shrubs, a distinction that would have been impossible with satellite imagery analysis alone.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image"><img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xMDE4MzU2NS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMjk4MTE1NH0.Gt2M_-PUoATjwTU46ayv45rgEV_9Vt21YyT7Boo8ILA/img.png?width=980" id="913b3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7c12ac41ee8291614fa0b83f565d623d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image"><small placeholder="add caption..." class="image-media media-caption">Collect Earth Map-a-thon Event in Gatsibo, Rwanda.</small></p><p>This human identification component, along with the ability to zoom into sub-meter resolution with cheap and available technology, has helped achieve the breakthrough result of forest cover identification 9 percent higher than previously reported.<br></p><p><strong>Local Ownership of the Map and the Land</strong></p><p>Utilizing local landscape knowledge not only improved the map quality but also created a sense of ownership within each region. The map-a-thon participants have access to the open source tools and can now use these data and results to better engage around land use changes in their communities. Local experts, including forestry offices, can also use this easily accessible application to continue monitoring in the future.</p><p><a href="http://www.globalforestwatch.org/" target="_blank">Global Forest Watch</a> uses medium resolution satellites (30 meters or about 89 feet) and sophisticated algorithms to detect near-real time <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/deforestation">deforestation</a> in densely forested area. The dryland tree cover maps complement Global Forest Watch by providing the capability to monitor non-dominant tree cover and small-scale, slower-moving events like degradation and <a href="http://www.wri.org/our-work/project/global-restoration-initiative" target="_blank">restoration</a>. Mapping forest change at this level of detail is critical both for guiding land decisions and enabling government and business actors to demonstrate their pledges are being fulfilled, even over short periods of time.</p><p>The data documented by local participants will enable scientists to do many more analyses on both natural and man-made land changes including settlements, erosion features and roads. Mapping the tree cover in drylands is just the beginning.</p>
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