How Other Countries Reopened Schools During the Pandemic – and What the U.S. Can Learn From Them
02 August
Health + Wellness
Students at the "Japon" public school number 72 attend class during the first day of the final phase of the gradual process to reopen schools on June 28 in Montevideo, Uruguay. Ernesto Ryan / Getty Images
By Bob Spires
As American school officials debate when it will be safe for schoolchildren to return to classrooms, looking abroad may offer insights. Nearly every country in the world shuttered their schools early in the COVID-19 pandemic. Many have since sent students back to class, with varying degrees of success.
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I am a <a href="https://spcs.richmond.edu/people/bspires/" target="_blank">scholar of comparative international education</a>. For this article, I examined what happened in four countries where K-12 schools either stayed open throughout the pandemic or have resumed in-person instruction, using press reports, national COVID-19 data and <a href="https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Schools%20Summary%20%282%29.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkRreE5XWXlORFF3TXpNeCIsInQiOiJIbVNQTTVySEo0Vzk1cHVBZVVqWnFGVmR1UEJxRGdpd01mTXg4OGw3Mk5nTnpmaUoyMGt2UXIwWVZBOE5GVjIybHA5aStrbzJ3MUxsanoxamZibmlocmpSbXZyVFVoV0VHYU1aTGx0RnpsMXlmOEtXSVJqaDJsZ0RJU1BQcVZjZSJ9" target="_blank">academic studies</a>.
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Here's what I found.
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Israel: Too Much, Too Soon
<p>Israel took stringent steps early on in the coronavirus pandemic, including severely restricting everyone's movement and closing all schools. By June, it was being <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/middleeast/israel-coronavirus-second-wave-netanyahu-intl/index.html" target="_blank">lauded internationally</a> for containing the spread of COVID-19.</p><p>But shortly after schools reopened in May, on a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/224fa625-657c-4ffb-a6a0-a40e04d685b9" target="_blank">staggered schedule paired with mask mandates and social distancing rules</a>, COVID-19 cases <a href="https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1278682387325616129" target="_blank">surged</a> across Israel. <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains" target="_blank">Schoolchildren and teachers</a> were among the sick. Today, <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks" target="_blank">several hundred Israeli schools have closed again</a>.</p><p>Some blame <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/7/15/21324082/coronavirus-school-reopening-trump-children-safety" target="_blank">lax enforcement of health guidelines</a> in schools. The weather didn't help: In May, a <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks" target="_blank">record heat wave hit Israel</a>, making masks uncomfortable for students to wear.</p><p>But schools were only part of a broader reopening in Israel that, many experts say, <a href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/where-we-went-wrong-expert-says-these-3-blunders-caused-new-israeli-covid-chaos/" target="_blank">came too soon and without sufficient testing capacity</a>.</p><p>"The reopening happened too fast," said <a href="https://www.thedailybeast.com/israeli-data-show-school-openings-were-a-disaster-that-wiped-out-lockdown-gains" target="_blank">Mohammed Khatib, an epidemiologist on Israel's national COVID-19 task force</a>. "It was undertaken so quickly that it triggered a very sharp spike, and the return to more conservative measures came too little, much too late."<br></p><p>Israel's public health director, Siegal Sadetski, resigned in early July, saying the health ministry had ignored her warnings about <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-battles-new-wave-coronavirus-infections-after-reopening-n1233139" target="_blank">reopening schools and businesses</a> so rapidly.</p>Sweden: A Hands-Off Approach
<p>Schools never closed in Sweden, part of the Scandinavian country's risky <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-deaths.html" target="_blank">gamble on skipping a coronavirus lockdown</a>. Only students 16 and older stayed home and did remote learning. <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/05/sweden-hasnt-locked-down-but-normal-life-is-a-luxury/" target="_blank">Social distancing</a> and <a href="https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks" target="_blank">masks were recommended but optional</a>, in line with the Swedish government's emphasis on personal choice.</p><p><span></span>This strategy earned <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/schools-reopening-coronavirus/2020/07/10/865fb3e6-c122-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html" target="_blank">praise from President Donald Trump</a> but some resistance from Swedish parents, especially those whose children have health issues. The government threatened to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-compels-parents-send-kids-to-school-2020-5" target="_blank">punish parents</a> who didn't send their kids to school.</p><p>Sweden's plan <a href="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-schools-sweden-denmark-5ff88c81-67e3-4c33-8b74-fe57b9555827.html" target="_blank">seems to have been safe enough</a>. Its health agency reported on July 15 that <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-schools/swedens-health-agency-says-open-schools-did-not-spur-pandemic-spread-among-children-idUSKCN24G2IS" target="_blank">COVID-19 outbreaks among Sweden's 1 million school children</a> were no worse than those in neighboring Finland, which did close schools. And pediatricians have seen <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa864" target="_blank">few severe COVID-19 cases</a> among school-age children in Stockholm. Only <a href="https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107913/number-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-sweden-by-age-groups/" target="_blank">one young Swedish child is believed to have died of the coronavirus</a> as of this article's publication.</p><p>However, officials in Stockholm have admitted they don't know how the disease may have affected teachers, parents and other adults in schools.</p><p>Sweden had <a href="https://www.coronatracker.com/country/sweden/" target="_blank">over 70,000 COVID-19 cases</a> as of July 21, which puts it in the middle of the pack in Europe, according to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciaa864" target="_blank">a joint study</a> from Sweden's Upsala University and the University of Virginia. Of those, slightly more than <a href="https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/c1b78bffbfde4a7899eb0d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf" target="_blank">1,000 involved children and teens</a>.</p>Japan: So Far, So Good
<p>Japan, which has mostly <a href="https://www.coronatracker.com/?country_code=JP" target="_blank">kept COVID-19 under control</a>, took <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-coronavirus-schools-reopen/2020/06/06/9047be8c-a645-11ea-8681-7d471bf20207_story.html" target="_blank">a conservative approach</a> to reopening schools in June.</p><p>Different schools have <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/06/bdd000c967a7-school-restarts-picking-up-in-japan-amid-lingering-coronavirus-fears.html" target="_blank">different strategies</a>, but generally Japanese students <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/05/18/national/japan-schools-reopen-state-of-emergency/" target="_blank">attend class in person on alternating days</a>, so that classrooms are only half full. Lunches are silent and socially distanced, and students undergo daily temperature checks.</p><p>These precautions are <a href="https://globalhealth.washington.edu/sites/default/files/COVID-19%20Schools%20Summary%20%282%29.pdf?mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTkRreE5XWXlORFF3TXpNeCIsInQiOiJIbVNQTTVySEo0Vzk1cHVBZVVqWnFGVmR1UEJxRGdpd01mTXg4OGw3Mk5nTnpmaUoyMGt2UXIwWVZBOE5GVjIybHA5aStrbzJ3MUxsanoxamZibmlocmpSbXZyVFVoV0VHYU1aTGx0RnpsMXlmOEtXSVJqaDJsZ0RJU1BQcVZjZSJ9" target="_blank">more stringent than those in many other countries</a>. Still, some Japanese school children have <a href="https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/06/bdd000c967a7-school-restarts-picking-up-in-japan-amid-lingering-coronavirus-fears.html" target="_blank">gotten COVID-19</a>, particularly in major cities.</p><p>A survey from Save the Children found that Japanese school children <a href="https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h00744/" target="_blank">wanted more clear and detailed information</a> about the virus and the outbreaks. <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/06/national/japan-parents-back-to-school-coronavirus/" target="_blank">Parents</a>, students and <a href="https://japan-forward.com/what-its-like-going-back-to-school-after-the-coronavirus-emergency/" target="_blank">teachers</a> continue to express hesitancy about returning to school and <a href="https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/09/national/japanese-students-coronavirus-measures-school/" target="_blank">displeasure over reopening measures</a>.</p>Uruguay: A+ for Safety
<p>Analysts credit Uruguay's <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/small-uruguay-big-proof-committing-public-health-can-contain-covid-19#stream/0" target="_blank">well-organized and efficient public health system</a> and Uruguyans' <a href="https://theconversation.com/uruguay-quietly-beats-coronavirus-distinguishing-itself-from-its-south-american-neighbors-yet-again-140037" target="_blank">strong faith in government</a> for its success stopping the coronavirus. The progressive South American country of 3.4 million has the region's <a href="https://www.wlrn.org/post/small-uruguay-big-proof-committing-public-health-can-contain-covid-19#stream/0" target="_blank">lowest rates of COVID-19 cases and deaths</a>, and it never shut down its economy entirely.</p><p>Uruguay was one of the Western Hemisphere's first countries to send its students back to school, using a <a href="https://blogs.iadb.org/educacion/en/uruguayreopening/" target="_blank">staged approach</a>.</p><p>In late April, Uruguay <a href="https://www.elobservador.com.uy/nota/gobierno-anuncio-que-el-22-de-abril-se-pueden-retomar-las-clases-en-973-escuelas-rurales-202048204622" target="_blank">reopened schools in rural areas</a>, where the student population is small. In early June, it brought vulnerable student groups, which were <a href="https://blogs.iadb.org/educacion/en/uruguayreopening/" target="_blank">struggling to access online learning</a>, and high school seniors back into classrooms. Then all students in non-urban areas went back to classrooms.</p><p>Finally, on June 29, <a href="https://www.infobae.com/america/america-latina/2020/06/29/uruguay-completa-la-reapertura-de-las-escuelas-256-mil-alumnos-vuelven-a-clase-en-montevideo/" target="_blank">256,000 students in the capital of Montevideo</a> returned to school. An <a href="https://labs.ebanx.com/en/notes/uruguay-one-of-the-first-in-the-americas-to-reopen-schools/" target="_blank">alternating schedule</a> of in-person and virtual instruction reduces the number of students in classrooms at one time.</p><p>Uruguay is notable for residents' <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-30/in-midst-of-covid-chaos-one-latin-american-nation-gets-it-right" target="_blank">consistent and early adoption of measures</a> like social distancing and masks. Its successful pandemic response comes despite its <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-30/in-midst-of-covid-chaos-one-latin-american-nation-gets-it-right" target="_blank">proximity to hard-hit Brazil</a>, where schools remain closed.</p>Final Grades
<p>There is no perfect way to reopen schools during a pandemic. Even when a country has COVID-19 under control, there's no guarantee that schools can reopen safely.</p><p>But the policies and practices of countries that have had some initial success with schools point in the same direction. It helps to slowly stage the reopening. Strict mask wearing and social distancing is critical, both in schools and surrounding communities. And both officials and families need <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/puar.13252" target="_blank">reliable and up-to-date data</a> so that they can continually assess outbreaks – and change course quickly if necessary.<span></span></p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUyODU5Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMDQ1NTk4NX0.i16YKkoUv-KY3pZ1B9CGk-4FkQhreKJl6fyg5mpbPSw/img.png?width=980" id="142a8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c4579ab29a2384b2ba637504377a1004" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>That complicates school reopenings in the U.S., with its <a href="https://theconversation.com/experts-agree-that-trumps-coronavirus-response-was-poor-but-the-us-was-ill-prepared-in-the-first-place-133674" target="_blank">soaring COVID-19 cases</a>, limited testing capacity and decentralized education system. Most countries have national education systems. In the U.S., school officials in all 50 states must sort through the same <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/28/us/politics/trump-accuses-media-democrats-coronavirus.html" target="_blank" style="">politicized messaging</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-numbers-confusing-you-heres-how-to-make-sense-of-them-142624" target="_blank" style="">confusing data</a> as everyone else to make their own decisions about whether, when and how to welcome back students.</p><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/bob-spires-697413" target="_blank">Bob Spires</a> is an Assistant Professor of Education at the University of Richmond. </em></p><p><em>Disclosure statement: Bob Spires does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-other-countries-reopened-schools-during-the-pandemic-and-what-the-us-can-learn-from-them-142706" target="_blank" style="">The Conversation</a>. </em><em></em></p>
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Until Teachers Feel Safe, Widespread In-Person K-12 Schooling May Prove Impossible in U.S.
19 July
Health + Wellness
Middle school teacher Brittany Myers stands in protest in front of the Hillsborough County Schools District Office on July 16 in Tampa, Florida. Octavio Jones / Getty Images
By Michael Addonizio
Safely resuming in-person instruction at U.S. public schools is important for the academic, physical, emotional and social well-being of children and their families. It's also a key factor for the nation's economic recovery.
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But in mid-July, despite <a href="https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/10/trump-schools-backlash-coronavirus-356721" target="_blank">considerable pressure from the Trump administration</a>, many school systems around the nation had announced that they didn't yet believe that anything close to resembling a traditional schedule would be feasible before the 2020-21 school year starts. Many school districts, including those in <a href="https://www.politico.com/states/california/story/2020/07/13/los-angeles-san-diego-schools-will-remain-closed-when-classes-resume-9423610" target="_blank">Los Angeles, San Diego</a> and <a href="https://www.houstonisd.org/reopening" target="_blank">Houston</a>, three of the nation's largest, were planning to be fully online.
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<p>Others, such as those serving <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-new-york-schoo/new-york-city-unveils-hybrid-school-reopening-plan-idUSKBN2492FG" target="_blank">New York City</a> and <a href="https://www.wapt.com/article/clinton-public-school-district-releases-hybrid-back-to-school-plan/33322468#" target="_blank">Clinton, Mississippi</a>, currently plan to follow hybrid approaches that combine distance learning and in-person learning. The goal in those cases is to reduce the spread of coronavirus by keeping students several feet apart from each other at all times and the only way to do that is to have fewer children in school at any given time.</p><p>Some states, including <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/07/888320203/florida-orders-schools-to-reopen-in-the-fall-for-in-person-instruction" target="_blank">Florida</a>, are trying to demand that local school systems at least offer families a chance for in-person daily instruction. But it's unlikely that all schools schools in those states will have on-site instruction, especially in <a href="https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/education-on-6/miami-dade-public-schools-monitoring-pandemic-locally-when-deciding-reopening-strategy/2261727/" target="_blank">COVID-19 hotspots</a>.</p><p><a href="http://image.cta-mailings.org/lib/fe8a1574766d017b7c/m/2/2167fb86-b25b-4ce3-9bc7-4248b105a80d.pdf" target="_blank">Pressure from teachers</a> has contributed to decisions to refrain from holding classes in person everywhere from <a href="https://edsource.org/2020/schools-in-los-angeles-san-diego-wont-reopen-for-in-person-learning-next-month/635924" target="_blank">Southern California</a> to <a href="https://www.arlnow.com/2020/07/14/breaking-superintendent-to-propose-online-only-start-to-school-year/" target="_blank">Northern Virginia</a>. Based on my research regarding <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/scientific-contributions/79809394_Michael_F_Addonizio" target="_blank">educational leadership and school policies</a>, I believe that those moves reflect how teachers are insisting that schools only be reopened once staff and student safety can be more assured.</p>
Concerns Expressed
<p>In June, a survey of the members of the <a href="https://www.aft.org/sites/default/files/June_2020_member_poll_slides_07072020.pdf" target="_blank">American Federation of Teachers</a>, a union with <a href="https://www.aft.org/publicservices/about-aft-public-employees" target="_blank">1.6 million members</a>, found that only 21% of K-12 teachers preferred to resume school on a traditional schedule. Another 42% supported a hybrid approach combining in-person and distance learning and 29% wanted to continue with distance learning exclusively and the rest didn't express a preference.</p><p>Fully 62% of the teachers responding to the survey expressed concerns over school safety tied to the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>One reason for this trepidation is demographic. More than 1 in 4 of the nation's <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372#PK12_teachers" target="_blank">3.7 million public school teachers</a> are <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2020142" target="_blank">50 years old or older</a>. That means they have a high <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html" target="_blank">risk of getting severe symptoms</a> if they contract COVID-19.</p><p>Countless other teachers live with someone who is in a high-risk category due to their age or have underlying conditions that put them at a greater risk should they get sick.</p><p>A recent effort to at least bring teachers together while they taught young students online over the summer didn't bode well. <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/beloved-arizona-teacher-dies-coronavirus-two-others-sharing-classroom-also-n1233672" target="_blank">Three teachers shared a classroom</a> at an Arizona public school. Although all three wore masks and gloves, used hand sanitizer and socially distanced, they all got infected with the coronavirus. One of them, who was 61, died in June.</p><p>Even experts do not yet have a good understanding of the likely risks tied to <a href="https://doi.org/10.17226/25858" target="_blank">reopening K-12 school buildings</a>. Much remains unknown about the degree to which kids, who appear to be <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/10/politics/do-kids-spread-coronavirus-fact-check/index.html" target="_blank">unlikely to develop COVID-19 symptoms</a>, can spread the coronavirus. It's unclear whether the <a href="https://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/campaign-k-12/2020/06/schools-COVID-era-return-air-system-problems-watchdog.html" target="_blank">heating and cooling systems</a> in school buildings function adequately enough to rely on during a pandemic. And no one knows how the <a href="https://www.edweek.org/ew/articles/2020/06/25/hybrid-school-schedules-more-flexibility-big-logistical.html" target="_blank">alternative scheduling scenarios</a> taking shape might affect student and staff safety since for the most part they are unprecedented.</p>Greater Clout
<p>This pushback from teachers is in keeping with a recent wave of mass mobilization by educators.</p><p>In <a href="https://theconversation.com/whats-behind-the-teacher-strikes-unions-focus-on-social-justice-not-just-salaries-111490" target="_blank">2018 and 2019</a>, tens of thousands of public school teachers, both unionized and not, walked out of their classrooms. In states like Kentucky, Arizona, California and Illinois, they protested low salaries, large class sizes and cuts to school budgets that have forced many teachers to spend their own money on classroom materials.</p><p>From these walkouts, some statewide and others limited to specific school districts, teachers won better pay and working conditions. They also garnered <a href="http://blogs.edweek.org/edweek/teacherbeat/2019/01/los-angeles-deal-end-strike.html" target="_blank">considerable public support</a> that may have bolstered educators' <a href="https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/lausd-will-not-have-in-person-classes-in-the-fall-online-learning-to-continue/2395329/" target="_blank">political clout</a> in decisions being made about how to carry on with K-12 schooling in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.</p>Major Consequences
<p>Teaching is challenging in the best of times. Now teachers are being asked and told to do more than ever: prepare in-person, online and hybrid lessons, allay students' anxieties, and risk their own and their families' health while serving students and families, often in communities where the pandemic isn't anywhere near under control.</p><p>Should school systems not heed teacher safety concerns, there's a risk that large numbers of educators <a href="https://www.chalkbeat.org/2020/5/9/21252608/older-teachers-heath-concerns-coronavirus-return-to-schools" target="_blank">might retire early or quit</a> until conditions are safer.</p><p>A wave of resignations could have major consequences for school quality. <a href="https://www.shankerinstitute.org/resource/does-money-matter-second-edition" target="_blank">Teacher experience makes a big difference</a>, in terms of both measured student achievement and student behavior. And replacing them with inexperienced substitute teachers and others far less qualified and issued emergency credentials would surely take a toll on the quality of education children get, whether it happens online or in classrooms.</p><p>In my view, the educational costs of losing scores of veteran teachers over personal health concerns would be incalculable.</p><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-addonizio-688882" target="_blank">Michael Addonizio</a> is a professor of educational leadership and policy studies at the Wayne State University. <br></em></p><p><em>Disclosure statement: Michael Addonizio does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/until-teachers-feel-safe-widespread-in-person-k-12-schooling-may-prove-impossible-in-us-142358" target="_blank">The Conversation</a></em><em style="">.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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This Simple Model Shows the Importance of Wearing Masks and Social Distancing
28 June
Health + Wellness
A woman wears a face mask as she waits at a bus stop with an information sign asking people to keep social distance due to the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic on June 26, 2020 in Stockholm, Sweden. STINA STJERNKVIST / TT News Agency / AFP / Getty Images
By Jeyaraj Vadiveloo
With the advent of an infectious disease outbreak, epidemiologists and public health officials quickly try to forecast deaths and infections using complex computer models. But with a brand new virus like the one that causes COVID-19, these estimates are complicated by a dearth of credible information on symptoms, contagion and those who are most at risk.
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My team at the Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research has developed a free, user-friendly computer model that has a different goal. It demonstrates how infections and deaths progress on a daily basis over a three-month period depending on how people behave in response to the outbreak. This model allows the public to input data that demonstrate how changes in safety measures in their communities, including wearing face covering and social distancing, can significantly impact the spread of this virus and mortality rates.
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<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jeyaraj-vadiveloo-410185" target="_blank">Jeyaraj Vadiveloo</a> is the director of the Janet and Mark L. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut.</em>
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<em>Jeyaraj Vadiveloo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em>
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<em><span></span>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/this-simple-model-shows-the-importance-of-wearing-masks-and-social-distancing-140423" target="_blank">The Conversation</a></em><em>.</em>
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<p>Our <a href="https://apps.goldensoncenter.uconn.edu/Covid19/" target="_blank">Goldenson Center COVID-19 model</a> uses a hypothetical 1,000-person population and calculates outcomes using three types of information: the initial number of infections, social distancing, and personal protection measures that include wearing masks, frequent hand-washing and staying quarantined if exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms. Our model then uses this initial information to project on a daily basis the cumulative infections and deaths over a three-month period. It's not based on actual disease data and is designed to demonstrate the effects of safety measures, rather than make specific predictions.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMjc0MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMTM4MzcyNn0.2hdDlWMyAby1f2KIgC6BLjitmx9b_WIFlEN2Jhf9hSE/img.jpg?width=980" id="19d13" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="59eb785ad083d6bbe2f1843c4987d5a3" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
This simple actuarial model uses general guidelines, rather than data and assumptions about COVID-19 specifically, to simulate the effect of safety protocols. Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months. Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut, Author provided
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMjc0MS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzk2NTI0MH0.pO90qlDRbUoizyxiC-rdmRc7FVzG6SeffhCgLb5Txsk/img.png?width=980" id="96035" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="190600ceeab9c1c0daa2312658ae15bc" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, CC BY-NC-ND
Why it Matters
<p>By inputting different assumptions, people can see how their community's personal actions can change the course of this pandemic — and how poor protocols can trigger <a href="https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-cases-are-growing-exponentially-heres-what-that-means-135181" target="_blank">exponential spread</a> of the virus.</p><p>For example, let's assume that 100 people are infected out of a population of 1,000, with one in 10 wearing masks, keeping appropriate distance and quarantining if necessary. The model shows that 30 days later, the virus would have killed 156 people. After three months, the death toll reaches 460 — with 510 now infected.</p><p>However, our model shows that if half the population practices safe protocols, infections after 90 days drop to 293 and deaths drop even more dramatically, to 149 — about one-third of the lives lost under looser measures.</p><p>The main takeaway is that safety measures that are within our control have significant impact — and ignoring those protocols can have dire consequences.</p><p>If a state opens up and maintains safety measures for at least three months, the virus will be contained and possibly eliminated. On the other hand, if a state opens up too soon and its residents ignore safety protocols, there could be an exponential increase in COVID-19 deaths within months. It's important for the public to realize that spread of the virus is impacted only by personal behavior.</p>What’s Next?
<p>Our model shows that there must be continued emphasis on maintaining necessary safety measures as we relax shelter-in-place rules and get people back to work. Practicing common-sense social distancing, wearing masks in public and quarantining when necessary is a small inconvenience for a limited amount of time — that will contain the devastation of this virus and ensure that our economy is restored.</p>
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Looking south from New York City's Central Park. Ajay Suresh / Wikipedia / CC BY 4.0
By Richard leBrasseur
The COVID-19 pandemic has altered humans' relationship with natural landscapes in ways that may be long-lasting. One of its most direct effects on people's daily lives is reduced access to public parks.
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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has issued <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/prevention.html" target="_blank">guidelines</a> urging Americans to stay at home whenever feasible, and to avoid discretionary travel and gatherings of more than 10 people. Emergency declarations and stay-at-home orders <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic" target="_blank">vary from state to state</a>, but many jurisdictions have closed <a href="https://thedyrt.com/magazine/local/campground-closures-list-covid-19/" target="_blank">state</a> and <a href="https://parks.arlingtonva.us/2020/04/parks-recreation-working-to-keep-people-healthy-and-safe/" target="_blank">county parks</a>, as well as smaller parks, playgrounds, beaches and other outdoor destinations.
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<p>There's good reason for these actions, especially in places where people have <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/26/us/southern-california-beaches-coronavirus-heat/index.html" target="_blank">spurned social distancing rules</a>. But particularly in urban environments, parks are important to human health and well-being.</p><p>As a <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Richard_Le_Brasseur" target="_blank">landscape architect</a>, I believe that <a href="https://www.olmsted.org/the-olmsted-legacy/frederick-law-olmsted-sr" target="_blank">Frederick Law Olmsted</a>, the founder of our field, took the right approach. Olmsted served as general secretary of the U.S. Sanitary Commission during the Civil War, and his knowledge of contagious diseases informed his visions for his great North American urban parks, including <a href="https://www.centralpark.com/" target="_blank">Central Park</a> in New York, <a href="https://www.lemontroyal.qc.ca/en" target="_blank">Mount Royal Park</a> in Montreal and Boston's <a href="https://www.emeraldnecklace.org/park-overview/" target="_blank">Emerald Necklace</a> park system. In my view, closing parks and public green spaces should be a temporary, last-resort measure for disease control, and reopening closed parks should be a priority as cities emerge from shutdowns.</p>
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Making Healthy Places
<p>Olmsted was born in 1822 but became a landscape architect rather late in his career, at <a href="https://www.olmsted.org/the-olmsted-legacy/olmsted-theory-and-design-principles/olmsted-his-essential-theory" target="_blank">age 43</a>. His ideas evolved from a diverse and unique set of experiences.</p><p>From the start, Olmsted recognized the positive effect of nature, noting how urban trees provided a "<a href="https://loa-shared.s3.amazonaws.com/static/pdf/Olmsted_Trees.pdf" target="_blank">soothing and refreshing sanitary influence</a>." His "sanitary style" of design offered more than mere decoration and ornamentation. "Service must precede art" was his cry.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzMxMzY0Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MDAxMzU4NH0.7HO1vlHxHZXowNrxFdabiUNPhc4bmcc4N-ct7Mq37bI/img.png?width=980" id="7dac7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="56aeeebf247c3a9dd09d5fc14e90805c" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Olmsted's 1874 plan for the U.S. Capitol grounds in Washington, DC. Architect of the Capitol
<p>Olmsted came of age in the mid-19th century, as the public health movement was rapidly developing in response to typhoid, cholera and typhus epidemics in European cities. As managing editor of Putnam's Monthly in New York City, he regularly walked the crowded tenement streets of Lower Manhattan.</p><p>At the U.S. Sanitary Commission during the Civil War, Olmsted led efforts to improve sanitation in Union Army military camps and protect soldiers' health. He initiated policies for selecting proper camp locations, installing drainage and disposing of waste, ventilating tents and preparing food, all designed to reduce disease. And in 1866 he witnessed adoption of New York's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Health_Bill" target="_blank">Metropolitan Health Bill</a>, the first city law to control unhealthy housing conditions.</p>Antidotes to Urban Stress
<p>The insights Olmsted gained into connections between space, disease control and public health clearly influenced his landscape architectural career and the design of many urban park systems. For example, his design for the interlinked parks that forms Boston's <a href="https://ramboll.com/-/media/files/rgr/lcl/bgi_final-report_mit_boston_20160403.pdf?la=en" target="_blank">Emerald Necklace</a> foreshadowed the concept of green infrastructure.</p><p>This system centered on stagnant and deteriorated marshes that had became disconnected from the tidal flow of the Charles River as Boston grew. City residents were dumping trash and sewage in the marshes, creating <a href="https://landscapes.northeastern.edu/water-sanitation-and-public-health-in-boston/" target="_blank">fetid dumps that spread waterborne diseases</a>. Olmsted's design reconnected these water systems to improve flow and flush out stagnant zones, while integrating a series of smaller parks along its trailways.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzMxMzY1Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzA0MTM4Nn0.NDri69ZuP5S1-FFERwACr1MFhgb4eqhxc4DkXq8OLR0/img.png?width=980" id="4f7fc" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="15936574ba99f0927e4a509d7a6b3694" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Boston's Emerald Necklace park system today. Emerald Necklace Conservancy / CC BY-ND
<p>Olmsted also designed <a href="https://www.6sqft.com/in-1894-the-first-bike-lane-in-america-was-built-on-brooklyns-ocean-parkway/" target="_blank">America's first bike lane</a>, which originated in Brooklyn, New York's Prospect Park. Of the tree-lined boulevards in his design for Central Park, Olmsted said, "Air is disinfected by sunlight and foliage. Foliage also acts mechanically to <a href="https://doi.org/10.1080/04419057.2013.836557" target="_blank">purify the air by screening it.</a>"</p><p>In all of his urban parks, Olmsted sought to immerse visitors in restorative and therapeutic natural landscapes — an experience he viewed as the most profound and effective antidote to the stress and ailments of urban life.</p>Parks in the Time of COVID-19
<p>Today researchers are documenting many health benefits associated with being outside. Spending time in parks and green spaces clearly benefits urban dwellers' <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landurbplan.2007.09.009" target="_blank">psychological, emotional and overall well-being</a>. It <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph10030913" target="_blank">reduces stress</a>, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/0013916591231001" target="_blank">improves cognitive functioning</a> and is associated with <a href="https://doi.org/10.1007/s40471-015-0043-7" target="_blank">improved overall health</a>.</p><p>In my view, government agencies should work to make these vital services as widely available as possible, especially during stressful periods like pandemic shutdowns. Certain types of public green spaces, such as botanical gardens, arboretums and wide trails, are well suited to maintaining social distancing rules. Other types where visitors may be likely to cluster, such as beaches and playgrounds, require stricter regulation.</p><p>There are many ways to make parks accessible with appropriate levels of control. One option is stationing agents at entry points to monitor and enforce capacity controls. Park managers can use timed entries and parking area restrictions to limit social crowding, as well as temperature screening and face mask provisions.</p><div id="c0c52" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="defaeca6d251c3f521f316ea78e9a454"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1258546078162419712" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The weather's going to be awesome this weekend. Heading to your local #WaStatePark? Be like mascots Bagley and Ruth… https://t.co/BwCzquGx75</div> — WaStatePks (@WaStatePks)<a href="https://twitter.com/WAStatePks/statuses/1258546078162419712">1588895742.0</a></blockquote></div><p>For example, in <a href="https://www.state.nj.us/dep/parksandforests/sps_covid.html" target="_blank">New Jersey</a>, many public parks have reopened for walking, hiking, bicycling and fishing while keeping playgrounds, picnic and camping areas and restrooms closed. They also have limited parking capacity to 50 percent of capacity.</p><p>In Shanghai, <a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3075224/coronavirus-parks-and-tourist-attractions-reopen-china-tries-get" target="_blank">China</a>, the government recently reopened most parks and several major attractions, including the <a href="http://en.csnbgsh.cn/sites/chenshan/chenshan_en/index.ashx" target="_blank">Chenshan Botanical Garden</a> and the <a href="http://www.smartshanghai.com/venue/2401/Shanghai_Zoo_shanghai" target="_blank">city zoo</a>. Entry requires successful screening and online reservations, and visits are limited to a maximum of two hours.</p><p>Technologies such as GPS tracking and biometrics can set a precedent for future green space interaction. Residents could sign up for reserved time slots and log into apps that monitor their entry and distancing behavior. Some Americans might be put off by such technocentric means, but officials should be clear that making visitation easy and safe for all is the priority.</p><p>There will be challenges, especially when people <a href="https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/dnr-state-park-closures-likely-if-people-dont-follow-social-distancing-rules" target="_blank">flout social distancing rules</a>. But urban parks and nature offer plenty of benefits that are especially important during a pandemic. I believe that finding ways to enjoy them now in a manner safe for all will be well worth the effort.</p>
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<em>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/parks-matter-more-than-ever-during-a-time-of-sickness-something-frederick-law-olmsted-understood-in-the-19th-century-137882" target="_blank">The Conversation</a></em><em>.</em>
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