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By Jeff Masters
Decades of progress on cleaning up our dirty air took a significant hit on Tuesday, along with hopes for a livable future climate, when President Trump issued his Energy Independence Executive Order. Most seriously, the order attacks the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Clean Power Plan, which requires a 32 percent reduction in CO2 emissions from existing power plants by 2030 (compared to 2005 emission rates).
By Jeff Masters
Here's a 2017 New Year's resolution I'd like to see the nations of the world adopt: an immediate international effort to invest in a world where 100 percent of our electricity will be generated by wind, water and solar power by 2050.
Such an effort is technically and economically feasible and has been championed by Stanford professor Mark Jacobson since 2009. His latest research on the subject was laid out in a series of talks last month in San Francisco at the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union—the world's largest conference on climate change.
During his talks, Jacobson outlined a plan to power 139 nations of the world for all purposes—including electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry and agriculture/forestry/fishing—using a mix of approximately 37 percent wind, 58 percent solar, 4 percent hydropower, and 1 percent geothermal, wave and tidal power. He argued that his plan would:
1. Replace 80 percent of business-as-usual power by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050.
2. Reduce power consumption by 42.5 percent because of electricity's better work:energy ratio, efficiency and lack of mining needed.
3. Create 24.3 million more jobs than lost.
4. Eliminate 3.5 million premature air pollution deaths per year and save $23 trillion (7.6 percent of GDP) in air pollution health costs per year by 2050 (for comparison: the World Bank estimated in 2016 that air pollution in 2013 killed 5.5 million people, with non-health care costs of more than $5 trillion).
5. Save $28.5 trillion per year in avoided climate change costs by potentially keeping global warming 1.5 C below pre-industrial levels.
6. Reduce war by creating energy-independent countries.
7. Decentralize energy production, thereby reducing power outages, terrorism threats to energy installations and energy poverty.
Dr. Mark Jacobson of Stanford addresses an audience in San Francisco at the annual meeting of The American Geophysical Union on Dec. 17, 2016.
Ok, this New Year's resolution does not come cheap. The up-front cost of such an energy system is $124.7 trillion for converting the 139 nations of the world Dr. Jacobson studied. However, it's critical to consider the savings, not just the costs. He estimates that by 2050, a $85 per person per year savings in electricity costs will be realized using a 100 percent wind, water and solar powered world compared to the current business-as-usual system. This does not include the savings due to reduced air pollution and reduced climate change costs, which would be an additional $5,800 per person per year.
Figure 2Dr. Mark Jacobson / Stanford
Figure 2: The total surface area (in square kilometers) of the Earth including oceans (large blue circle) and land surface area of the 139 countries studied (pink circle) are compared to the areal footprint of the renewable energy systems (beyond what was installed as of 2015) needed to provide 100 percent of power by 2050 in Dr. Jacobson's road map. The plan requires approximately 653,200 square km offshore wind turbines, 1,105,000 square km of onshore wind turbines, 87,410 square km of rooftop solar photovoltaic panels and 260,500 square km of photovoltaic and concentrated solar power systems run by utility companies. For hydropower, no new installations are proposed, so the additional footprint is zero. About 1 percent of the world's land area would be needed for the power systems proposed.
His road map to a 100 percent renewable energy future uses existing generator technologies, along with existing electrical transportation, heating/cooling and industrial devices and appliances. Electricity storage is done using existing storage technologies—concentrated solar power with storage, pumped hydroelectric storage and existing heat/cold storage technologies (water, ice and rocks). No stationary storage batteries, biomass, nuclear power, carbon capture or natural gas are required. No new dams would be needed, but existing dams would by made more efficient. Aircraft flying less than 600 km would be electric and those flying longer distances would be powered by hydrogen fuel cells.
He modeled the seasonal and daily variation in solar energy and wind power in the 139 countries, with storage and was able to show that the power grid was stable—the load on the grid matched the electricity supply. The 2.5 million wind turbines required would cause approximately a 0.6 percent reduction in world's average wind speed, which he argued should not cause major disturbances to the weather. Dr. Jacobson acknowledged that political obstacles would make his plan difficult to implement, but stressed that a solution to global warming is technically and economically feasible.
Reposted with permission from our media associate Weather Underground.
EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
By Jeff Masters and Bob Henson
After a devastating 12-day rampage from the Caribbean to the U.S. Mid-Atlantic, Hurricane Matthew was reclassified as a post-tropical cyclone at 5 a.m. EDT Sunday by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Matthew wasn't exactly slacking off—its top sustained winds remained 75 mph as of NHC's 2 p.m. Sunday advisory—but it no longer had the warm core required for tropical-cyclone status. At 2 p.m. EDT, Matthew was located about 150 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving east at 15 mph. After days of computer models suggesting a potential loop back toward Florida, it now appears Matthew will continue eastward and gradually dissipate.
Hurricane Matthew took at least 1,000 lives in Haiti and left entire towns across southern Haiti almost completely destroyed.arif_shamim
It will be some time before we have a more complete sense of Matthew's toll, but we already know that it is the deadliest hurricane in the Western Hemisphere since 2005. In Haiti, Matthew took at least 1,000 lives and left entire towns across southern Haiti almost completely destroyed. A handful of deaths and significant damage were also reported in Cuba, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Colombia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, and the Dominican Republic. After Haiti, it was the U.S. that took the worst of Matthew's wrath. At least 17 U.S. deaths have been reported and insured damage is expected to total at least $4 billion. See our Saturday post for details on how you can provide much-needed help to those struggling with the aftermath of Matthew.
From Florida to Virginia, Astounding Rains and Storm Surge
Matthew traced a path remarkably similar to the coastline of the Southeast U.S. Although its center stayed within about 50 miles of the coast for more than 36 hours and hundreds of miles, Matthew officially came ashore only briefly as a Category 1 hurricane along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast on Saturday afternoon. Matthew's overall path kept its strongest winds just offshore, with few or no reports of sustained hurricane-force winds along the Southeast U.S. coast. Top wind gusts compiled by weather.com included 107 mph at Cape Canaveral, Florida (collected on a tower 54 feet above ground level) and 96 mph at Tybee Island, Georgia.
Matthew's just-offshore track may have spared the Southeast from billions of dollars in wind damage, but it didn't keep the hurricane from packing a phenomenal punch in the form of water. Like several other U.S. hurricanes in the last decade, including Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012), Matthew delivered a much more severe storm surge than one might expect from its landfall strength, thanks to the water built up by much higher winds earlier in its life offshore. Matthew's track along the concave Southeast coast also enhanced its ability to produce high surge. Major storm surge was reported as far north as the Hampton Roads area of southeast Virginia, which received an unexpectedly powerful blow from Matthew that also included tropical-storm-strength sustained winds (including a peak gust of 75 mph at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach) and torrential rain.
As of 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, Oct. 9, here are the approximate peak storm surges observed over the preceding 48 hours at all the tide gauges with a long-term period of record (at least a few decades) along the coasts of northern Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. (Storm surge is the added water produced by a storm atop the normal tidal cycles).
- 7.8' Fort Pulaski, Georgia
- 6.4' Fernandina Beach, Florida
- 6.1' Charleston, South Carolina
- 4.5' Mayport, Florida
- 4.4' Springmaid Pier, South Carolina
- 4.1' Wilmington, North Carolina
- 4.1' Money Point (Norfolk), Virgina
- 3.5' Sewells Point (Norfolk), Virgina
- 3.3' Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, Virgina
- 2.6' Beaufort, North Carolina
Fort Pulaski, Georgia: 5.06'
Previous record: 3.40' during the Oct. 15, 1947 hurricane (records since 1935).
Wilmington, North Carolina: 3.53'
Previous record 3.47', during Hurricane Hazel on Oct. 15, 1954 (records since 1935).
Mayport, Florida: 3.28'
Previous record: 2.47', during Hurricane Jeanne on Sept. 27, 2004 (records since 1928).
Near-record high water levels were observed at three other stations:
At Charleston South Carolina, the water level during the Saturday morning high tide was the third highest on record: 3.53'. The record: 6.76' during Hurricane Hugo on Sept. 21, 1989; second highest, 4.47' during the Aug. 11, 1940 hurricane (records since 1921).
At Fernandina Beach, Florida, the water level during Friday afternoon's high tide was the second highest on record: 4.17'. The record: 6.91' during the Oct. 2, 1898 hurricane (records since 1897).
At Springmaid Pier, South Carolina the water level during Saturday afternoon's high tide was the second highest on record: 2.66'. The record 3.65', during the Jan. 1, 1987 nor'easter (records since 1957).
Multi-sensor analysis of precipitation for the 7-day period from 8:00 a.m. EDT Sunday, Oct. 2, to Sunday, Oct. 9. Nearly all of the precipitation shown across the Southeast fell during Hurricane Matthew. NOAA / NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service
Torrential Rains Wallop Unexpectedly Large Parts of the Carolinas and Virginia
Forecasters knew for days that extremely heavy rain was likely to develop on the north side of Matthew as it moved up the Southeast coast. As hurricanes move into the midlatitudes, they often interact with pre-existing frontal systems that intensify the rain-making processes on the poleward side of the storm. Matthew ended up generating torrential rain near the Southeast coast, as predicted, but it also produced record-smashing rainfall well inland and considerably further north than expected, especially over North Carolina and southeast Virginia. More than 880 rescues had taken place across North Carolina as of Sunday morning, according to Gov. Pat McCrory.
Here are the highest storm totals observed in each state along Matthew's path as of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday:
- Florida: 7.89", Sanford/Orlando
- Georgia: 17.49", Savannah/Hunter Army Air Field
- South Carolina: 14.04", Beaufort MCAS
- North Carolina: 15.65", William O. Huske Locke 3
- Virginia: 12.84", 10 miles northwest of Chesapeake
- Maryland: 5.52", 6 miles south of Berlin
- Delaware: 3.13", Seaford
From Friday into Saturday, Savannah International Airport broke the city's official 24-hour rainfall record of 11.44" on Sept. 17-18, 1928, according to Weather Underground weather historian Christopher Burt. It's quite possible that an even higher 24-hour reading will be confirmed from one of the other Savannah-area reporting stations, as suggested by the storm total above.
Norfolk, Virginia, received 7.44" of rain on Saturday, making it the city's wettest October day on record (beating 6.23" from Oct. 17, 1999). Little more than three months ago, Norfolk set its all-time July calendar-day rainfall record with 6.98" on the 31st.
Raleigh-Durham International Airport picked up 6.45" on Saturday, beating the area's previous all-time calendar-day rainfall record of 5.96" set on Oct. 1, 1929. Raleigh-area records extend back to 1887.
Perhaps the single most phenomenal record on Saturday was at Fayetteville, North Carolina, where 14.00" of rain was reported on Saturday. This demolished the city's previous all-time calendar-day record of 6.80" observed during Hurricane Floyd on Sept. 16, 1999. In fact, there are only four entire months in Fayetteville weather history that have received more rain than Fayetteville picked up in 24 hours on Saturday! Fayetteville records extend back to 1871. The flooding situation in the Fayetteville area was made even worse by very heavy rains observed in parts of the area during late September.
Record Atmospheric Moisture Contributed to Matthew's Deluge
Several locations along Matthew's path through the Southeast recorded incredibly high amounts of atmospheric moisture on Friday and Saturday. At least two sites had record amounts of precipitable water (the total amount of liquid water that would cover the ground over a given location if all the moisture in a column of air above was condensed). These readings are taken with radiosonde soundings (balloon-borne instrument packages) that have been conducted regularly since 1948.
Jacksonville, Florida: 2.85" at 8 p.m. EDT Friday
Previous record: 2.82" on July 20, 1983.
Charleston, South Carolina: 2.93" at 2 a.m. EDT Saturday (special sounding)
Previous record: 2.70" on Aug. 15, 2010.
2nd place: Newport/Cape Hatteras, North Carolina: 2.85" at 8 p.m. EDT Saturday
Record: 3.05" on Aug. 27, 2011.
Matthew's Place in Hurricane Annals
Dr. Phil Klotzbach (Colorado State University) has assembled a handy list of the many records set during Matthew's long life. Here are a few highlights:
Intensity: Matthew was the lowest-latitude Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Its strengthening of 80 mph in just 24 hours was the third fastest on record for the Atlantic, behind only Wilma (2005) and Felix (2007).
Longevity: Matthew maintained Category 4 or 5 strength for 102 hours, the longest such stretch on record for October in the Atlantic. Its 7.25 days as a major storm (Category 3 or stronger) is the fifth longest such period for any hurricane since satellite observations began in the Atlantic in 1966.
Landfall: Matthew is the first storm on record to make landfall as a major hurricane in Haiti, Cuba and the Bahamas. Since 1866, the only two hurricanes to strike the Bahamas at Category 4 strength in October are Matthew and last year's Joaquin. Matthew's landfall near Myrtle Beach made it the first hurricane to strike the U.S. Atlantic coast north of Georgia in October since Hazel (1954).
Enhanced infrared image of Tropical Storm Nicole as of 1745Z (1:45 p.m. EDT) Sunday, Oct. 9.CIRA / CSU / RAMMB
A New Lease on Life for Nicole
Tropical Storm Nicole continues to languish in the open Atlantic. As of 11 a.m. EDT Sunday, Nicole was nearly stationary, spinning about 575 miles south of Bermuda with top sustained winds of around 60 mph. As a blocking ridge to its north moves eastward, Nicole should begin moving north an at increasing rate over the next couple of days. By midweek, it will be over the record-warm waters of the subtropical North Atlantic, which helped boost Hurricane Gaston to Category 3 strength at latitude 30°N in late August. With wind shear over Nicole decreasing by midweek, the storm may a chance to regain much of the strength it had on Friday. The 12Z Sunday run of the HWRF, one of our best intensity models, brings Nicole back to Category 2 strength by late this week. Our best track models (the GFS, ECMWF and UKMET) differ on whether Nicole will pass to the west or the east of Bermuda around Thursday. Given this uncertainty, as well as Nicole's potential to intensify, Bermudians should monitor this storm closely.
Reposted with permission from our media associate Weather Underground.