Flooding Risk for U.S. Homes: Millions More Are Vulnerable Than Previously Estimated
29 June
Climate
A road is covered by floodwater left in the wake of Hurricane and Tropical Storm Harvey on Aug. 31, 2017 near Houston, Texas. Scott Olson / Getty Images
The climate crisis will certainly change the mortgage market and the insurance market in the near future as millions of homes are now at risk of flooding and fire danger due to changes brought by extreme weather from the climate crisis. Now, the latest analysis shows that millions of homes that were not included in government estimates are at risk of flooding, exposing millions of people to a lurking threat that will only grow as the climate crisis worsens, as The New York Times reported.
<p>That threat is the takeaway in a <a href="https://assets.firststreet.org/uploads/2020/06/first_street_foundation__first_national_flood_risk_assessment.pdf" target="_blank">comprehensive new analysis by the First Street Foundation</a>, a nonprofit research and technology group that experts say has put together the most complete assessment of the nation's mounting vulnerability to flooding, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/us/us-flood-risk-increasing-climate-change-first-street-foundation/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>The in-depth and extensive report released Monday shows that across the U.S., there are at least 6 million homes that have a one percent chance of flooding each year, which puts them within a "100-year" flood zone. Yet, as <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey">Hurricane Harvey</a> revealed in 2017 when it flooded Houston, downpours are flooding homes outside areas the government considers 100-year flood zones, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/flood-risk-climate-change/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>.</p>
<p>The new analysis shows that nearly 70 percent more homes are at substantial risk of flooding than are currently within FEMA's Special Flood Hazard Areas, which determines eligibility for the National Flood Insurance Program, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/flood-risk-climate-change/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported.</p><p>Across the country, about 8.7 million properties are located in Special Flood Hazard Areas as determined by FEMA's flood maps, the legal standard used in the U.S. to manage floodplains and determine insurance requirements and price policy premiums. First Street's data says the true number is closer to 14.6 million properties. The group says the gap between FEMA's maps and this new data means that some 6 million property owners could be unaware of their current flood risk, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/us/us-flood-risk-increasing-climate-change-first-street-foundation/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>.</p>
<p>First Street's work shows just how dramatically Americans' exposure to flood hazards will increase during the next 30 years, which is the term of a typical mortgage.</p><p>The model finds that about 14.6 million properties now have a substantial level of risk now, but that grows to 16.2 million by 2050, with the caveat that there are considerable uncertainties involving changing precipitation patterns that could inflate that number further, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/29/flood-risk-climate-change/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>.</p>
<p><br>"If you're a homeowner, renter or buyer in this country and you want to understand flood risk, the only data that's available to you are the FEMA flood maps," said Matthew Eby, <a href="https://firststreet.org/" target="_blank">First Street's</a> founder and executive director, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/29/us/us-flood-risk-increasing-climate-change-first-street-foundation/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported. "And the FEMA flood maps are made to determine flood insurance rates — not necessarily to determine what your personal flood risk is."</p><p>First Street created a website that allows users to plug in their own <a href="http://floodfactor.com/" target="_blank">address</a> to see their flood risk.</p><p>Many cities nationwide from Fort Lauderdale, Florida, to Buffalo, New York, to Chattanooga, Tennessee show enormous gaps between FEMA assessed flood risks and actual flood risk. In Chicago alone, 75,000 properties have a previously undisclosed flood risk. And racial minority communities often face a bigger share of hidden risk, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/29/climate/hidden-flood-risk-maps.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported.</p>
<p><br>In more than two-thirds of states, First Street found that areas with more racial minority residents also had a greater share of unmapped flood risk than the statewide average. Jeremy Porter, First Street's director of research and development, told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/29/climate/hidden-flood-risk-maps.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> that cities seem to invest more in flood protection in areas with higher incomes and property values.</p><p>In Florida, 23 percent of all homes face flood risk, while in New Orleans, the number is at 98 percent. In Virginia Beach the flood risk increased over 80 percent in the last 30 years, according to First Street's <a href="https://floodfactor.com/" target="_blank">FloodFactor</a> website.</p>
<p>The information will give local governments and property owners a leap forward in understanding their evolving risks from climate change and other hazards, said Kerry Emanuel, a meteorology professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, to <a href="https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2020/06/29/gda-flood-risk-florida-risk-brevard-county-fema/3277148001/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>.</p><p>Emmanuel said the new data takes pieces of information from many experts and puts it together in a way that hasn't been done before to give property owners "the risk of their home being blown down or flooded by salt or freshwater," Emanuel said to <a href="https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/2020/06/29/gda-flood-risk-florida-risk-brevard-county-fema/3277148001/" target="_blank">USA Today</a>.</p><p>"They're going to watch the value of their property plummet over time," he said. "That might make them think twice," he said, adding that it might also convince them to ask their elected representatives "to do something about it."</p>
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Most Destructive Hurricanes Now 3x More Frequent Than They Were a Century Ago
12 November 2019
Climate
Flooding in New Orleans from Hurricane Katrina on Sept. 11, 2005. NOAA Photo Library / Lieut. Commander Mark Moran
The most destructive hurricanes are three times more frequent than they were a century ago, new research has found, and this can be "unequivocally" linked to the climate crisis.
<p>The research, published Monday in the <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/11/05/1912277116" target="_blank">Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences</a>, used a new method to calculate hurricane damage that makes it easier to separate climate effects from increases in wealth and population density, a University of Copenhagen press release published by <a href="https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-11/uoc-hhb110719.php" target="_blank">EurekAlert! explained</a>.</p><p>"A new way of calculating the destruction, compensating for the societal change in wealth, unequivocally shows a climatic increase in the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes that routinely raise havoc on the North American south- and east coast," the press release said.</p>
<div id="ea942" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="RX7KOH1576661161"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1194013533534662663" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Hurricanes are becoming more destructive. Here's a nice video i made for our new study. I guess it could be part of… https://t.co/n7DPCxuUjS</div> — Aslak Grinsted (@Aslak Grinsted)<a href="https://twitter.com/AGrinsted/statuses/1194013533534662663">1573509984.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>What changed? The traditional method of comparing damage seeks to calculate what a historic hurricane would cost if it made landfall today. This method made it hard to see the role of climate change, because differences in cost could be chalked up to the fact that more people lived in impacted areas, they were wealthier and they lived in more expensive infrastructure.</p><p>So researchers at the University of Copenhagen developed a new metric called "area of total destruction."</p><p><a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-50380431" target="_blank">BBC News</a> gave an example of how it works using <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-irma" target="_self">Hurricane Irma</a>, which struck Florida in 2017:</p><blockquote>Around 1.1 million people were living inside the 10,000 sq km closest to the storm's landfall.<br><br>With the wealth per capita estimated to be $194,000, the scientists concluded that the overall wealth in this 10,000 sq km region was $215bn.<br><br>As the storm caused $50bn worth of damage, this was 23% of the wealth in the region. Taking 23% of the 10,000 sq km gave an area of total destruction of 2,300 sq km.</blockquote><p>Using this method, the researchers determined that the frequency of the most destructive hurricanes had increased by 330 percent this century.</p><p>For additional perspective, eight of the 20 most destructive storms since 1900 happened in the past 16 years, which is more than you would expect from chance, lead study author Aslak Grinsted told the <a href="https://apnews.com/7bf72776290e490ba016edfa4da25902" target="_blank">Associated Press</a>.</p><p>The average "area of total destruction" was 159 square miles. Hurricane Irma's 2,300 square kilometer "area of total destruction" translates to roughly 888 square miles, or more than five times the average. Two recent storms were especially destructive, according to the Associated Press: The "area of total destruction" for 2005's <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/ten-years-after-katrina-1882093409.html" target="_self">Hurricane Katina</a> measured 2,942 square miles, nearly 20 times the average; for 2017's <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey" target="_self">Hurricane Harvey</a>, it was 4,570 square miles, around 30 times the average.</p>
<div id="7bb67" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="RIRJ4A1576661161"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1194019161988575232" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The "fireplace" plot in the figure can take some time to read, so here's an reading guide... The brightest colors (… https://t.co/srECgfhTer</div> — Aslak Grinsted (@Aslak Grinsted)<a href="https://twitter.com/AGrinsted/statuses/1194019161988575232">1573511326.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"It's the most damaging ones that are increasing the most," Grinsted told the Associated Press. "This is exactly what you would expect with climate models."</p><p>Other climate scientists agreed.<br></p><p>"Their result is consistent with expected changes in the proportion of the strongest hurricanes and is also consistent with the increased frequency of very slow-moving storms that make landfall in the U.S.," <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration</a> hurricane scientist Jim Kossin, who was not involved with the study, told the Associated Press.</p><p>However, Colorado State University hurricane scientist Phil Klotzbach disagreed. He said his comparison of storms using barometric pressure showed no increase in power over time.</p><p>But Grinsted told BBC News his method was robust.</p><p>"The increase in frequency is not only in my own dataset but is also present in other datasets, so it is extremely robust, and I think that will help it become more accepted," he said.</p>
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EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
A Coast Guard flight surveys the aftermath of Tropical Depression Imelda near Houston on Sept. 20. U.S. Coast Guard courtesy asset
Authorities confirmed a fifth death this weekend linked to devastating rainfall from Tropical Storm Imelda as the Houston area struggles to recover from last week's intense flooding.
<p>Around 60 residents were rescued by boat Friday after the storm dropped as much as 43 inches of rain in some areas. Cleanup crews are still surveying damages in the area to determine if the county is eligible for FEMA funds to mitigate the impacts. Extreme rainfall is a classic signature of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">climate change</a>: the number of record-breaking rainfall events globally has significantly increased in recent decades, and the fingerprint of global warming is documented in this pattern. </p>
<p>As reported by the <a href="https://www.apnews.com/5a1271ab361a4bf3864340739662ae89" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Associated Press</a>:</p><blockquote>The National Weather Service said preliminary estimates suggested Jefferson County was hit with more than 40 inches (102 centimeters) of rain in a span of just 72 hours, which would make it the seventh-wettest tropical cyclone to hit the continental U.S.</blockquote><blockquote>"The issue is that you can't get 40 inches of rain in a 72-hour period and be fully prepared for that," Jefferson County spokeswoman Allison Getz told the Associated Press on Friday. "At this point we haven't been able to fully assess what's happened."</blockquote><blockquote>Getz said dozens of people have traveled to the county with boats in tow from Louisiana and other parts of Texas to assist with rescue efforts, an outpouring of support reminiscent of volunteer efforts during <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey">Harvey</a>.</blockquote><blockquote>In nearby Chambers County, preliminary estimates indicate about 800 homes and businesses sustained some level of damage from floodwaters, county spokesman Ryan Holzaepfel said. Emergency personnel rescued about 400 people during the deluge, mostly from homes, he said.</blockquote>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Tropical Storm Imelda brought extreme flooding to Houston, where 1,000 people had to be rescued and more than 40 inches of rain fell in 72 hours. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/YEARSproject?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#YEARSproject</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WeDontHaveTime?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WeDontHaveTime</a> <a href="https://t.co/epAaUyI0e2">https://t.co/epAaUyI0e2</a></p>— We Don't Have Time (@WeDontHaveTime0) <a href="https://twitter.com/WeDontHaveTime0/status/1175832559827193857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 22, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><strong>For a deeper dive:</strong></p><p><a href="https://www.apnews.com/5a1271ab361a4bf3864340739662ae89" target="_blank">AP</a>, <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Officials-seek-donations-for-Imelda-fund-urge-14462011.php" target="_blank">Houston Chronicle</a>, <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-09-21/florida-mans-death-is-5th-linked-to-imeldas-aftermath" target="_blank">LA Times</a>, <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2019/09/23/tropical-storm-imelda-leaves-texans-wondering-if-theyll-get-fema-money/" target="_blank">Texas Tribune</a>, <a href="https://www.foxnews.com/us/fifth-death-linked-tropical-depression-imelda-houston" target="_blank">Fox News</a>. Background: <a href="https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/extreme-precipitation-increase" target="_blank">Climate Signals</a></p><p> <em>For more </em><a href="http://ecowatch.com/climate-change-news/" target="_blank"><em>climate change</em></a><em> and </em><a href="http://ecowatch.com/business/renewables/" target="_blank"><em>clean energy</em></a><em> news, you can follow Climate Nexus on </em><a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus" target="_blank"><em>Twitter</em></a><em> and </em><a href="https://www.facebook.com/ClimateNexus/" target="_blank"><em>Facebook</em></a><em>, and sign up for daily </em><a href="http://climatenexus.us4.list-manage1.com/subscribe?u=d1f5797e59060083034310930&id=7c84c08aaa" target="_blank"><em>Hot News</em></a><em>.</em></p>
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'We Shouldn't Be Used to This’: Houston Swamped by Second Major Flood Event in Two Years
20 September 2019
Climate
Imelda flooded highway 69 North in Houston Thursday. Thomas B. Shea / Getty Images
Two have died and at least 1,000 had to be rescued as Tropical Storm Imelda brought extreme flooding to the Houston area Thursday, only two years after the devastation of Hurricane Harvey, the Associated Press reported Friday.
<p>In Jefferson County, Texas Imelda dumped more than 40 inches of rain in 72 hours, according to preliminary estimates by the National Weather Service. If the figures hold, they would make Imelda the seventh wettest tropical cyclone in U.S. history.</p><p>"This happened very quickly," Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner told <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Heavy-rainfall-continues-for-parts-of-Houston-as-14451875.php" target="_blank">The Houston Chronicle</a>. "But it's just demonstrating that in this day and time, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate change</a> is real. And we no longer have to be concerned just with a hurricane. We have to be concerned with almost any sort of weather system that can quickly evolve into a major storm and produce a great deal of rain."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">And now, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Imelda?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Imelda</a>.<br><br>With rainfall totals already surpassing 40 inches in 3 days, the current Houston-area floods are already among the worst in American history.<br><br>No other urban area in America has flooded as much as Houston in the last 40 years. And we are making it worse.</p>— Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1174757541613637632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 19, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>The climate crisis <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-crisis-hurricanes-wetter-2639175731.html" target="_self">makes extreme rainfall events more likely</a> because warmer air holds more moisture. Hurricane Harvey's rainfall, which caused the worst freshwater flood in U.S. history, was made at least <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-rain-2517167957.html" target="_self">three times more likely</a> by climate change. Both Imelda and Harvey were 1-in-1,000 year flood events, <a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1174715558606069762" target="_blank">meteorologist Eric Holthaus tweeted</a>.</p><p>Tragically, Imelda's flooding claimed two lives. One 19-year-old was drowned and electrocuted while trying to move his horse to safety during a thunderstorm. Another man in his 40s or 50s died when trying to drive through eight feet of water near Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport, the Associated Press reported.</p><p>Thursday's flooding delayed or canceled more than 900 flights. It also flooded some Houston highways, stranding drivers, hundreds of whom were forced to abandon their vehicles. Tow truck drivers removed 200 cars from Houston freeways late Thursday as waters receded, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/19/us/imelda-rain-forecast-thursday-wxc/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>. Hundreds more remain.</p><p>One family said the freeway near the North Street overpass looked the same way it did during Harvey.</p><p>"We shouldn't be used to this," father Alejandro De Almaida told The Houston Chronicle. "Harvey was the 500-year flood, so we weren't expecting this after two years."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">“GOTTA MAKE THE BEST OF IT”: Guy using a pool noodle to float down the 59S feeder road<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/floods?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#floods</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Texas?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Texas</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/abc13?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#abc13</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/imelda?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#imelda</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/houstonweather?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#houstonweather</a> <a href="https://t.co/UD7dvMlA5A">https://t.co/UD7dvMlA5A</a> <a href="https://t.co/ttwoNBSrvY">pic.twitter.com/ttwoNBSrvY</a></p>— Katherine Marchand (@KatherineMABC13) <a href="https://twitter.com/KatherineMABC13/status/1174745836535930882?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 19, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>In some parts of Texas, officials said the flooding was even worse than during Harvey. A hospital in the town of Winnie, 60 miles east of Houston, had to be evacuated, and homes and businesses in the town of around 3,200 flooded as well.</p><p>"What I'm sitting in right now makes Harvey look like a little thunderstorm," Chambers County Sheriff Brian Hawthorne told Houston TV station KTRK as <a href="https://eu.tennessean.com/story/weather/2019/09/19/houston-flooding-imelda-weather-prompts-texas-emergency-declarations/2374574001/" target="_blank">the Associated Press reported Thursday</a>.</p><p>Beaumont, in Jefferson County, was especially hard hit, CNN reported. The Texas Game Wardens posted a dramatic video on Facebook as they conducted water rescues in the area.</p>
<p><a target="_blank"><br></a><span></span></p><iframe title="fb:video Facebook Social Plugin" src="https://www.facebook.com/v2.10/plugins/video.php?allowfullscreen=true&app_id=221153651603389&channel=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticxx.facebook.com%2Fconnect%2Fxd_arbiter.php%3Fversion%3D44%23cb%3Df3c2ae516fca7f8%26domain%3Dwww.ecowatch.com%26origin%3Dhttps%253A%252F%252Fwww.ecowatch.com%252Ffd43f3da380ea8%26relation%3Dparent.parent&container_width=300&href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fvideo.php%3Fv%3D929241344112343&locale=en_US&sdk=joey" style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; visibility: visible; width: 300px; height: 536px;"></iframe>
<p>"The situation here is turning worse by the minute," Michael Stephens, a resident of the nearby city of Vidor, told CNN from an apartment where he was trapped by flood waters Thursday. "People have snakes in their apartments from the creek. ... (We) also have elderly disabled people stuck in their apartments."<br></p><p>Stephens also said the flooding was worse than what he remembered from Harvey.</p>Texas Gov. Greg Abbott declared a state of disaster for 13 counties Thursday. Abbott, a Republican, has said it is "impossible" for him to say whether he believes anthropogenic climate change is responsible for the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">extreme weather</a> events that are increasingly impacting his state, the Associated Press reported Friday. Still, he approved billions of dollars in flood prevention and coastal defenses earlier this year.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Record rainfall and flooding in southeastern Spain killed six people as of Saturday, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/spain?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#spain</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/climatecrisis?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#climatecrisis</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/EnvDefenseFund?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@envdefensefund</a> <br> <a href="https://twitter.com/TIME?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@time</a> <br> <a href="https://t.co/j1LKH9GcwS">https://t.co/j1LKH9GcwS</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1173586149387972609?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 16, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Pixabay
By Molly Taft
It was long predicted that Houston was unprepared for a hurricane like Harvey, yet the storm caught the city off-guard when it landed a year and a half ago.
<p><br/></p>
<p>Harvey dawdled over the region for a week after making landfall, dumping up to five feet of rain on some areas. One <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/12/climate-change-study-hurricane-harvey-flood/" target="_blank">study</a> estimates that <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> increased rainfall by as much as <a href="https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/12/climate-change-study-hurricane-harvey-flood/" target="_blank">38 percent</a>, and the city's flood barriers did little to mitigate the catastrophic damage. Beyond the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/UpdatedCostliest.pdf" target="_blank">$125 billion</a> in physical damage the storm caused to the region, it also bogged down the city's criminal justice system, making the city's courts and jails more inefficient, and with serious consequences.</p><p>The Harris County Criminal Justice Center, which sits a block away from the Buffalo Bayou, acts as a central nervous system for criminal justice proceedings in the country's third-largest county. Harvey hit the courthouse with a one-two punch, as four feet of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">floodwater</a> damaged the lower levels and increased water pressure burst pipes on higher floors.</p><p>When a courthouse that <a href="http://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/" target="_blank">serves 4.5 million people</a> is damaged, an already backed-up legal system gets even more inefficient. The city was forced to close the building after water damage <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/10/06/after-harvey-jury-trials-stalled-harris-county/" target="_blank">knocked out</a> 40 courtrooms on the center's 20 floors. Jury trials were delayed as the district scrambled to find spaces to hold court. Most hearings in subsequent months took place in the crowded jail basement, where prosecutors, defenders and their clients <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Temporary-courtrooms-generate-Harvey-Deals-in-12348272.php#photo-14528231" target="_blank">were forced</a> into close quarters in the limited space available.</p><p>"There's two old classrooms down there that they turned into courtrooms," defense attorney Nathan Hennigan said. "I mean, it didn't serve as a court. Basically, all you can do is enter pleas and things like that. Obviously, you can't have a trial or anything down there."</p><p>"Harvey kind of highlighted some of the problems" with the city's jails, said Eric Davis, a trial chief at Houston's Public Defender Office. The sudden slowdown in court cases from the storm hit a city that was already struggling with its jail population and practices. The Harris County Jail had faced <a href="https://www.houstonpress.com/news/why-the-harris-county-jail-is-overcrowded-with-legally-innocent-people-7555627" target="_blank">chronic overcrowding</a> for years, while judges in the Houston courts had long been accused of using the county's cash bail system to trap poor defendants accused of misdemeanors and minor crimes unfairly behind bars.</p>
<p>In 2016, inmates in the jail filed suit against the county alleging unconstitutional bail practices. Months before the storm in 2017, a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/29/us/judge-strikes-down-harris-county-bail-system.html?mcubz=0&_r=0" target="_blank">federal judge sided with the inmates</a>. "Harris County's policy is to detain indigent misdemeanor defendants before trial, violating equal protection rights against wealth-based discrimination and violating due process protections against pretrial detention," the judge wrote in her decision.</p><p>When Harvey blew in and limited court space, it collided with Houston's slow reform process, impacting hundreds of cases. "I've got defendants who have been in jail five, six years waiting on trial. I saw a case where a guy has 1800 days [served]," Davis said. "He had been in jail a long time before Harvey hit. Then Harvey hit and delayed [his trial] even more."</p><p>In April, the <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Long-wait-for-justice-Hurricane-Harvey-limited-13727618.php" target="_blank">Houston Chronicle</a> profiled some of the county's 25 longest-jailed inmates awaiting trial, who have collectively served 107 years in jail. Keith Allen Smith, who was accused in 2015 of murder, couldn't afford the $90,000 bail set in his case and was only acquitted this year after serving nearly four years in the Harris County Jail. His lawyer cited damage from Hurricane Harvey as one of the "key reasons" Smith's trial date kept being postponed.</p><p>The jail basement served as the main courtroom for more than a year, Hennigan said, causing significant lags in the system. "There wasn't anywhere to try cases," he said. "If cases aren't getting tried, then people are sitting in jail longer pretrial. People who really shouldn't be in jail have to stay there longer. People who should be in jail and get sent to prison, they're not getting sent to prison. Cases are getting reset. Trials are taking place years after an event, which makes it harder for everyone."</p><p>A reasonable timeline on a criminal trial is crucial for the justice system to function, according to Will Snowden, director of the <a href="https://www.vera.org/" target="_blank">Vera Institute for Justice</a>'s New Orleans office. Snowden, a former public defender, said that with repeatedly delayed trials, eyewitnesses' memories can fade, crucial evidence can be lost or misplaced and experts and other witnesses can relocate.</p><p>"People's desire to go to trial diminishes over time," he said, explaining that those who have been wrongly imprisoned lose patience with lengthy trials. "Sometimes prosecutors would use the fact that this person has been in jail for a year and a half already, and they want to get out." Defendants exhausted by waiting for trial would often choose to take "sweetheart deals" offered by prosecutors, regardless of their innocence.</p><p>Harris County attempted to alleviate some of the pressure by reopening some floors in the criminal justice center in June of last year, but space was still at a premium. For nearly a full year, family and misdemeanor court hearings were held in the old Harris County Family Law Center building across the street, which was scheduled to be torn down before the hurricane. The Family Law Center failed its fire inspection in 2018, so the city <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/In-Harvey-s-wake-full-time-fire-watch-keeps-13836809.php#photo-17400093" target="_blank">hired fire marshals</a> to patrol the hallways daily so that the space could be used. In late May of this year, the courthouse finally fully reopened and dockets resumed on all floors — nearly 20 months after the storm first hit in 2017.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMDUyMzEyMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwMjk5NjQ3Nn0.5lfNPOBYvAonq8deDCZLuUSeoE-jfhggus6VeURyW6A/img.jpg?width=980" id="c3c08" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a2f90ee791a24ace48d9290358a2ea5f" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Harvey's rainfall caused massive flooding, as seen here in Port Arthur, Texas on August 31, 2017 .
Staff Sgt. Daniel J. Martinez / U.S. Air National Guard
<p>"We are on top of each other," Judge Maria Jackson told the <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Long-wait-for-justice-Hurricane-Harvey-limited-13727618.php" target="_blank">Houston Chronicle</a> in April. "Harvey has had a major impact on the Harris County judiciary — the entire system — and continues to be a problem as long as we double up and work in makeshift areas in several buildings … If we had a courthouse we could occupy full-time, with enough space, that would help to return to some normalcy."</p><p>The courthouse flooding didn't just slow the speed of trials — it also made things hard for the accused. Floodwaters <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/10/06/after-harvey-jury-trials-stalled-harris-county/" target="_blank">destroyed</a> holding cells for 900 inmates in the main complex, forcing the county to find a new place for pretrial detainees to live. According to figures provided by the Harris County Sheriff's Office, 2,763 people awaiting trial were <a href="https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Defense-lawyers-urge-Harris-County-to-stop-13197552.php" target="_blank">shipped</a> over state lines to a private prison nearly 300 miles away in Louisiana between March and November of 2018.</p><p>One of Hennigan's clients was sent over the state border. "We're preparing for trial and he'd be gone in Louisiana," he said. "Then they bring him back, like, two days before trial. You have a hard time communicating with your client because of that." Hennigan said some attorneys were forced to make the 10-hour round-trip drive to the prison simply to confer with their clients face-to-face.</p><p>Houston's isn't the only criminal justice system to crumble under <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">extreme weather</a>. As Hurricane Katrina's floodwaters rose in New Orleans, sheriff deputies <a href="https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5gjdxn/hurricane-katrina-was-a-nightmare-for-inmates-in-new-orleans-829" target="_blank">abandoned</a> the Orleans Parish Prison, which was filled with defendants awaiting trial for minor offenses. A damning <a href="https://www.aclu.org/press-releases/aclu-report-details-horrors-suffered-orleans-parish-prisoners-wake-hurricane-katrina?redirect=news/aclu-report-details-horrors-suffered-orleans-parish-prisoners-wake-hurricane-katrina" target="_blank">ACLU report</a> published the year after the storm found that inmates — including juveniles moved from other facilities — were left standing in chest-high sewage-contaminated water for days. After the city belatedly sent rescue boats to evacuate the jail, <a href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2018/09/12/caged-storm-hurricane-florence-bears-down" target="_blank">photographs spread</a> of inmates huddled on highways — some of the only surfaces in parts of the city above water — for days in temperatures upwards of 90 degrees F. (Similarly, after Harvey, the state Department of Criminal Justice failed to evacuate several prisons near Houston, leading to <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/after-harvey-texas-inmates-were-left-in-flooded-prisons-without-adequate-water-or-food/" target="_blank">horrific conditions</a> for thousands of inmates.)</p><p>Problems didn't stop after the floodwaters subsided. "Inmates got shipped all over the country [before the storm], and there wasn't an organized mechanism on how to track these folks down after things kind of cleared," Snowden said. "There really wasn't a policy in place on how to safely transport some of those individuals before the storm actually hit."</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMDUyMzEyNC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NTc3ODQxOX0.H8pdsdSw4QioysWAmGObqr3tzQ_Phft4cqRSU8j5KTM/img.jpg?width=980" id="a10f5" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2dc548920473644b41de5e8a962fda30" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Fallen water tower in Buras, Louisiana, where Katrina made landfall on August 29, 2005.
EPA
<p>Snowden said that Katrina was the "impetus" for New Orleans to reckon with its flawed criminal justice system. City officials called in outside organizations, including the Vera Institute for Justice, to help. Since the storm, the nonprofit has worked with the city to substantially reduce its jail population. While the city's jails held roughly 6,500 before Katrina, the population now hovers close to 1,100, after Vera <a href="https://psmag.com/social-justice/how-a-hurricane-changed-criminal-justice-policy" target="_blank">worked with policymakers</a> to implement effective pretrial services. Advocates also successfully pushed to have the jail rebuilt much smaller after the storm, with less than 2,000 beds — putting an automatic cap on the population and committing the city to keeping its numbers down.</p><p>Some city officials are continuing to push to <a href="https://www.nola.com/news/courts/article_e103ece3-6a03-530b-8684-18c643948cd6.html" target="_blank">build more beds</a>. But a <a href="https://www.nola.com/news/courts/article_329ea2d1-c065-5f8a-9c20-8c75beaf68c8.html" target="_blank">smaller jail population</a> post-Katrina has actually corresponded with a <a href="https://wgno.com/2019/01/02/new-orleans-homicide-rate-down-for-third-year-in-a-row/" target="_blank">dip in crime rates</a> — helping to "challenge the notion that locking people up keeps us safer," Snowden said.</p><p>"Louisiana has been in prison capital world for many, many decades," he explained. "If locking people up actually worked, we'd be the safest state in the country. In fact, we [now] have a model where there's been fewer people in jail and there's been less crime on the street."</p><p>Even with reforms, Louisiana is still reckoning with the impact of <a href="https://www.climatecentral.org/news/katrina-was-climate-change-to-blame-19377" target="_blank">climate change</a> on its criminal justice system. The Louisiana Correctional Institute for Women, the state's sole prison for women, sits south of Baton Rouge. It flooded during catastrophic rainfall in 2016, which <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/environment/article_62d3d3aa-f4c1-11e8-b922-1b3817b06f0d.html" target="_blank">research has shown</a> was directly influenced by a warmer climate. Nearly three years later, roughly 1,000 inmates are <a href="https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/crime_police/article_0fcebfb8-5d6b-11e9-bac5-f7b4ee1d77f0.html" target="_blank">still living</a> in overcrowded, "temporary" relocation facilities. Many have no access to basic resources that they'd had in the old prison, like the ability to work a job or eat food in a cafeteria. There's no sign of when they'll be able to return to the communities they had built at the old facility.</p><p>"If you don't consider the fact that the past climate is no longer a guide for the future, you risk making investments that are not going to pay back," said Richard Moss, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland and one of the lead authors of the recent <a href="https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/" target="_blank">National Climate Assessment</a>. "At worst, you risk making investments that could put people's health and safety at risk."</p><p>If Texas is to learn any lessons from Harvey, it will be without any guidance from the governor's office. A commission convened by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott released a 200-page report in December suggesting the state needs to "future-proof" itself due to "changing environmental and human conditions." The report made no direct mention of climate change, curbing emissions or moving to renewable energy.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMDUyMzEyNy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxOTM3ODU2M30.D_VSez_pLR4DXdZFEAr2EeN2vytUXAPjF48NAynatmQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="6bec9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="2c3c45afbb85287b725f77fd8facc418" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Houston's damage in Harvey's aftermath on Sept. 3, 2017.
Tech. Sgt. Larry E. Reid Jr. / U.S. Air Force
<p>"I'm not a scientist," Abbott told reporters at the report's rollout when asked whether he thought climate change was behind Harvey and projected future disasters. "Impossible for me to answer that question." In May, bills meant to mandate studies of how climate change will impact Texas <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2019/05/10/climate-change-bills-do-not-get-hearings-this-session-in-texas/" target="_blank">died in the state Legislature</a>.</p><p>"Climate change is an obvious factor in a lot of these extreme events," said Moss, who now leads the <a href="https://www.climateassessment.org/" target="_blank">Science for Climate Action Network</a>, which provides climate science resources to local governments. "Whether it's explicit or implicit in terms of adaptation, communities are going to need to use climate science."</p><p>This refusal to acknowledge climate impacts will come at the expense of those caught in the criminal justice system in Texas. The county has had experience with a weather-damaged courthouse: Tropical Storm Allison flooded the Criminal Justice Center in 2001, closing it for nearly a year. After Allison, the Houston Chronicle followed the fallout from the lack of space as the courthouse was repaired. In November of 2001, five months after the storm, the <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/article/Flood-forcing-speed-up-of-plea-bargains-2014205.php" target="_blank">Chronicle</a> reported that "prosecutors are cut off from their computers and offices and are juggling witnesses," while "judges and their staffs are trying to keep up with scheduling and the cases before them."</p><p>It took $16 million to repair the courthouse after Allison, but the recovery from Harvey looks to be a longer slog. Last December, following more than a year of back-and-forth on how to repair Harvey's damage, the district attorney successfully <a href="https://www.chron.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/At-Ogg-s-urging-Harris-County-delays-13476041.php" target="_blank">convinced the city</a> to delay a decision on whether to authorize some repairs to the existing center or rebuild it entirely. Just $4.9 million of an estimated <a href="https://abc13.com/3817534/" target="_blank">$86 million</a> in repairs have been approved this year. County engineers say a new structure could cost $430 million and take four years to build.</p><p>Even if Houston moves the facility to a less flood-prone area, the city — and others around the country — will still have to contend with other ways that climate change threatens the criminal justice system. Some <a href="https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/51a0/f75e1a128201824d7d947ea0d3fab41edb5b.pdf" target="_blank">preliminary research</a> projects that climate change and warming temperatures could help increase crime rates, providing more fodder for an already-clogged courthouse like Harris County's.</p><p>Moss is wary of trying to predict how rising temperatures will affect crime rates, but he said that climate change could interact with other forces to have a "nuanced and complicated" impact on crime.</p><p>"The question is, what's the specific pathway through which climate change alters the existing situation?" Moss said. "If you find that people's access to basic necessities are being interrupted by climate change, and it's a question between do they rob a store, or not do so and not feed their family, you're going to see changes."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">UN Expert Warns of 'Climate Apartheid' <a href="https://t.co/GMG6WAwPUC">https://t.co/GMG6WAwPUC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ClmateEmergency?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ClmateEmergency</a></p>— John Lundin 🌊 (@johnlundin) <a href="https://twitter.com/johnlundin/status/1143887045816963074?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 26, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://nexusmedianews.com/criminal-justice-in-the-age-of-climate-change-a12faccfc203" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Nexus Media</a>.</em><br/></p>From Your Site Articles
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Hurricane Florence on Sept. 12, 2018. ESA / A.Gerst, CC BY-SA 2.0
By Astrid Caldas
On May 21, the first named storm of 2019, Andrea, was recorded on the north Atlantic. This makes 2019 the fifth consecutive year that a named storm has formed before the official start of Atlantic hurricane season.
<p>Something caught my eye when I read that: the number five. That's because, according to NASA, 2018 was the <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2841/2018-fourth-warmest-year-in-continued-warming-trend-according-to-nasa-noaa/" target="_blank">fourth warmest year</a> in a continued warming trend since record keeping began in the 1880's, with temperatures 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.83 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 1951 to 1980 mean. And with it, a string of five consecutive years have been recorded as the five warmest on record. I will say this again: the last five years have been the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">five warmest years on record</a>.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI2NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NTA2NjQ4Nn0.4GJ4mRAnLrDNkK-KCTMooN94I7tKg9faSeQcmZnoVr4/img.jpg?width=980" id="a9812" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6bfd453655e35aa55ed25da0c3e2645b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>Is climate change having an effect on hurricane season, or on hurricanes themselves? Hurricane season starts on June 1st. Let's take a look at the latest forecasts and science.</p><h3>Hurricane Forecasts and Their Messages</h3><p>On April 16, Colorado State University (CSU) released its <a href="https://tropical.colostate.edu/media/sites/111/2019/04/2019-04.pdf" target="_blank">hurricane outlook for the 2019 season</a>, forecasting 13 named storms with 5 of them turning into hurricanes, of which 2 would classify as major (<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php" target="_blank">categories 3 and above</a>).</p><p>On May 23, the <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20170309_pa_2017SeasonChanges.pdf" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, part of the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration (<a href="http://www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA</a>) released their <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season" target="_blank">forecast</a>, predicting a "near-normal" season with 9 to 15 named storms and 4 to 8 hurricanes, with 2 to 4 being major ones. An average season has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The numbers are very similar to the ones from CSU.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI3NC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NDcxNTE0Nn0.uv9JTX01Y2YwoNy2NgTmPdbCxc-IiCdGtGPhB8qOta0/img.png?width=980" id="ee3cc" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="44676743385e4821488e0f976740408b" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>The odds for that near-normal season are 40%. Odds for above-normal or below-normal activity are both at 30%. But, as <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/hurricane-season-2018-begins-will-it-be-different-from-last-years" target="_blank">I mentioned last year</a>, odds are not certain predictions. They are just that: odds (see below for more on that). And the last couple of years certainly reminded us of that.</p><h3>Years to Remember – in More Than One Way</h3><p><a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/hurricane-season-2018-begins-will-it-be-different-from-last-years" target="_blank">NOAA's forecast for the 2018 season</a> also had a near-normal probability of 40%, with 35% odds of it being above normal, and 25% odds of being below-normal. It forecast 10 to 16 named storms and 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 1 to 4 being major. <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/destructive-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season-draws-to-end" target="_blank">What we saw</a> was a season tilted toward the higher side of the predictions — there were 15 named storms and eight hurricanes. Two of those were major, and two hurricanes — Michael and Florence, the latter not a major hurricane but a category 1 — caused <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events.pdf" target="_blank">roughly $50 billion</a> in estimated damage.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MjE2OTQzOX0.6byo4KiOBCPAi7es5vjdel61IPD6B5n5xlF0y3_iMfo/img.png?width=980" id="0bfad" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e79ab2a72f1e2aa7622681f8cd7dec47" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>While the probabilistic predictions may not have raised any eyebrows, when a record four hurricanes were active at the same time, that caught my eye.</p><p>If we look further back, at <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/astrid-caldas/the-2017-hurricane-season-begins-here-are-3-alarming-things-im-watching" target="_blank">2017</a>, the probability of an above-normal season was at 45%, and below-normal activity was at 20%. The forecast called for 5 to 9 hurricanes, with 2 to 5 being major — and the reality blew the predictions: <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/extremely-active-2017-atlantic-hurricane-season-finally-ends" target="_blank">we had 10 hurricanes with 6 major ones</a>. Three of these major ones hit the U.S., and nobody will forget the string of names <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-irma">Irma</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-maria">Maria</a> anytime soon. That also caught my eye.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4NS9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMjY4NTkwNH0.arlA6OO6WFh1r0i9oREG4gqcQPU1KwHjrzB1p4Oz8ow/img.png?width=980" id="b0f9e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6b2cfb61390706114deb6b7bb137253a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>However, I was not surprised when the numbers fell outside of the given range.</p><h3>Understanding the Forecast</h3><p>That is because the range in numbers given in NOAA's forecast has a <a href="https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml" target="_blank">70% probability</a>, meaning that "<em>The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years</em>." So, there you have it, in plain language, that the actual numbers for 2019 (as in any season) may be different from the ones in the forecast.</p>
<h3>What Do These Seasons Tell Us?</h3><p>Forecasts are based on probabilities calculated from <em>conditions at the time of the forecast</em>, and as such, there is ample room for conditions to change and actual facts to fall outside the probabilistic calculations, as the numbers for 2017 show. At the time of the 2018 forecast, sea surface temperatures were running below average in the area where tropical storms form, and the forecast was based on those conditions. For this year, NOAA stated that there are <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-predicts-near-normal-2019-atlantic-hurricane-season" target="_blank">competing signals affecting the forecast</a>: an ongoing weak El Niño is expected to suppress intensity of Atlantic hurricane activity, while warmer-than-average surface waters and an enhanced African monsoon are forces that could lead to increased activity. Will these conditions change and affect hurricane activity? Probably. That is also why NOAA releases an updated forecast later in the season, usually in early August. Mind you, the updated forecast is based on the same probabilistic calculations, only using updated conditions.</p><p>Most importantly, it only takes one hurricane to hit to cause possible devastation. Nobody can tell ahead of time how many hurricanes in a season will strike land. One should always remember that, and be prepared, such as by following the NOAA/NWS <a href="http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl" target="_blank">storm tracking page</a> and FEMA <a href="https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes" target="_blank">hurricane preparation guidance</a>. And with the last couple of seasons seeing major hurricanes (some making landfall), preparedness takes on a new urgency.</p><p>But are we really seeing more of these major hurricanes, or is it just an impression — or coincidence?</p>
<h3>Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger</h3><p>The fact is that global warming is loading the dice when it comes to hurricane strength, with abnormally warm water being one of the culprits because it has the potential to increase hurricane power. Two of the most powerful hurricanes in recent history, Harvey and Florence, gained immense strength in very little time, and one of the reasons was that the sea surface temperature of the water in its path was running well above normal. In the case of Harvey, Gulf waters were <a href="https://news.ucar.edu/132605/record-breaking-ocean-heat-fueled-hurricane-harvey" target="_blank">warmer than any time on record</a>, and temperatures along Florence's path were <a href="https://www.climatesignals.org/resources/map-atlantic-sea-surface-temperature-anomaly-sep-8-2018" target="_blank">3.6°F (2°C) hotter than normal</a>. That warmer water is linked to human-caused warming due to emissions from burning coal, oil and gas. And it is worth noting that, after further analysis, hurricane Michael was <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL142018_Michael.pdf" target="_blank">upgraded to a category 5</a> in April 2019, months after it hit in 2018.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTU2NjI4OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNTc0MDg3MX0.YTFyxKKveNvtjJu5JrOEwmLdBRJDm5Y_0BQCRLpFK80/img.jpg?width=980" id="df354" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e83c4a2b2ac0415c74da474fa1a37e44" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p>But it is not just the wind and strength of a hurricane that are amplified by climate change: global warming can also increase the amount of rain that hurricanes bring. Warmer air holds more moisture (read: more water to fall when it rains), and global average temperature is currently about 1.8°F (1°C) warmer than it was in the late 1800s. In fact, a <a href="http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2" target="_blank">study</a> found that the record rainfall from Harvey was roughly three times more likely and 15% more intense than in a world without global warming. Another <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2018EF000825" target="_blank">study </a>found that higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures make hurricanes such as Harvey "more intense, bigger, and longer lasting and greatly increase their flooding rains."</p><p>Furthermore, research suggests that there has been an increase in <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/syr/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full.pdf" target="_blank">intense hurricane activity</a> over the past 40 years, and since the mid-1970s the number of strong hurricanes reaching categories 3 and above <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/309/5742/1844.full" target="_blank">has roughly doubled</a>.</p><p>So, while we wait for this hurricane season to develop, let's be mindful of probabilities, a changing climate, changing conditions, and most of all, <a href="https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes" target="_blank">preparedness</a>. It reduces risks, helps ensure communities withstand the next storm, and can save lives.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ClimateChange?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ClimateChange</a> Is Already Making <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricanes?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Hurricanes</a> Wetter, Study Confirms <a href="https://t.co/ngztLITdyC">https://t.co/ngztLITdyC</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateCentral?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateCentral</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateNexus?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ClimateNexus</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1063280583068008448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Astrid Caldas is a climate scientist with the Climate & Energy program at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org/" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
- How Rural Areas Like Florida's Panhandle Can Become More ... ›
- Early Forecasts Suggest 'Quiet' 2019 Hurricane Season - EcoWatch ›
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A 2017 flood in Elk Grove, California. Florence Low / California Department of Water Resources
By Tara Lohan
It's been the wettest 12 months on record in the continental United States. Parts of the High Plains and Midwest are still reeling from deadly, destructive and expensive spring floods — some of which have lasted for three months.
Mounting bills from natural disasters like these have prompted renewed calls to reform the National Flood Insurance Program, which is managed by Federal Emergency Management Agency and is now $20 billion in debt.
<p>The program was established in 1968 as a way to provide <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flood</a> insurance to properties with high flood risk — some of which is <a href="http://www.pciaa.net/docs/default-source/default-document-library/nfip_white_paper_june2011.pdf?sfvrsn=2" target="_blank">subsidized by taxpayers</a> — and to use management programs to help reduce risk.</p><p>But Jessie Ritter, director of water resources and coastal policy at the <a href="https://www.nwf.org/" target="_blank">National Wildlife Federation</a>, says the program has unintentionally done the opposite over the years. By offering government-funded insurance where private companies wouldn't, it's made it easier to build in flood-prone areas. Local land-use decisions in some places haven't helped, either.</p><p>Most people agree that some reform of the National Flood Insurance Program is needed. Four former FEMA administrators recently <a href="https://www.eenews.net/assets/2019/05/13/document_daily_01.pdf" target="_blank">sent a letter to Congress</a> asking for just that. But legislators — who disagree how to accomplish that goal — have been <a href="https://www.insurancejournal.com/blogs/right-street/2018/07/09/494466.htm" target="_blank">kicking the can down the road</a> by issuing short-term extensions since the program's last five-year authorization lapsed in September 2017.</p><p>Most recently the <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/443716-house-votes-to-extend-flood-insurance-program" target="_blank">House of Representatives voted</a> May 14 to approve the 11th <a href="https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20190513/BILLS-116hr2578-SUS.pdf" target="_blank">short-term extension</a>. If the Senate agrees, the program would then carry on as-is until September 30.</p><p>Meanwhile homes and communities continue to flood and the insurance program's losses keep stacking up.</p><p>"In the absence of reforms, costs in taxpayer dollars and lives lost will only get worse," the former FEMA administrators wrote in their letter urging action.</p><p>It's past time to make the necessary changes, Ritter says. "Congress has been unable politically to get to a place where we can meaningfully reform this program and address some of the underlying symptoms that are making disasters so costly in our country," she said. "A perpetuation of the status quo makes no sense at a time when we are spending billions annually on relief in response to a continual string of disasters." This spring the most destructive Mississippi River floods in 25 years resulted in thousands of lost homes, damaged businesses and flooded farms.</p><p>House Financial Services Committee Chair Maxine Waters said the most recent extension, which she co-authored, gives more time for a bipartisan bill to attempt a larger reform of the program — and that this will be the last short-term extension. Waters has been a longstanding advocate for reforming the program and sponsored 2017 legislation that cancelled $16 billion of its debt, which had <a href="https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1522167351921-a5e457454262dd100e2f15a7210d21c5/Watermark_FY18_Q1_v6_508.pdf" target="_blank">climbed to $30 billion</a> that year in the wake of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey" target="_self">Hurricane Harvey</a> and other disasters. Further reforms promised by Congress that year did not materialize.</p>
<h2>Mapping the Flood Line</h2><p>The program's growing debt is only part of the issue.</p><p>FEMA has been criticized for using outdated flood maps that don't accurately portray the risk that communities face, either now or in the near future. <a href="http://www.resilientbayarea.org/kathy-schaefer" target="_blank">Kathleen Schaefer</a>, a researcher at the University of California, Davis who spent a decade working as regional engineer for FEMA producing flood insurance maps for California, says that the current process to update maps is time-consuming, bureaucratic and costly.</p><p>And the data that the agency does have isn't granular enough to communicate property-level risk.</p><p>"One property to the next may have very different levels of risk based upon their actual elevation," explains Ritter. Soil type and land use on each property can also affect flooding. "And right now FEMA just doesn't have that level of sophistication in their flood maps."</p><p>It's not that the technology to do that doesn't exist — <a href="https://www.gislounge.com/predictions-match-reality-power-lidar-flood-warnings/" target="_blank">North Carolina is using it</a>— but it hasn't been mandated nationally for FEMA.</p><p>Another issue is the accuracy of the maps. If a property falls into what FEMA determines is a 100-year floodplain, owners with federally backed mortgages are required to purchase flood insurance. "Some of those maps are super outdated, and that floodplain line in some places, because of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a>, is probably no longer accurate," said Ritter.</p><p>The floodplain line also creates a false sense of security for those who own property outside of it and aren't required to purchase flood insurance but may still have some level of risk. FEMA's current system reduces flood risk to "in" or "out" — black or white. "And that's not how risk works," said Ritter. "Risk is shades of gray."</p><p>Schaefer and other researchers from the UC Davis Natural Hazards Research and Mitigation Group looked at severe <a href="https://californiawaterblog.com/2016/08/28/new-baton-rouge-flood-map-show-limits-of-current-risk-and-planning-methods/" target="_blank">flooding that claimed 13 lives in the Baton Rouge</a> area in 2016. They found that a third of the flooding was outside FEMA's 100-year flood zone.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTUzOTg2MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMDg2MjA3MH0.aGhq0XsJYmqxUQtZeRT2p3PD6m5ev3Yyk7MBNGHQSfE/img.jpg?width=980" id="e661f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="b07daccc1f93ff914ccf0f5aab212343" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Extensive flooding in southeast Texas from Hurricane Harvey
Photo by Penn State, CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
<p>"Many floodplain residents and political leaders falsely believe that flooding cannot occur beyond the mapped 100-year line," the researchers wrote. "But nationwide, roughly 25 percent of National Flood Insurance Program flood-damage claims occur outside of 100-year zones."</p>
<h2>Environmental Costs — and Solutions</h2><p>It's not just bad for property owners and taxpayers. There are environmental implications, too.</p><p>"Subsidizing insurance rates inadvertently encouraged development in floodplains that never should have been developed in the first place," said Ritter. "Not only does that decrease community resilience, it impacts habitat and wildlife." Natural floodplains are incredibly rich ecosystems that support fish, birds, plants and a host of other species.</p><p>Ritter says her organization would like to see more money from the program spent trying to prevent flood damages instead of paying billions to rebuild after a disaster — especially in areas with recurrent flooding. There's also a lot of untapped potential to restore natural features such as wetlands and floodplain habitat, which can reduce flood risk, protect communities and create environmental benefits, she says.</p><p>"Where those types of nature-based approaches can work, they should be incentivized and given first consideration," said Ritter. "If communities can reduce their rates by proactively reducing their risk, then it's a win-win across the board for everyone."</p>
<h2>Moving Forward</h2><p>Having worked at FEMA, Schaefer thinks the 50-year-old federal program, tied to the congressional rulemaking process, can't provide the localized approach that's currently needed.</p><p>"Any changes that you're going to make to the program, you'd have to make on a nationwide scale," she said. "And people on the Gulf Coast think about their flood risk differently than people in California's Central Valley — you're not going to be able to find the compromise that is going to get you where you need to go."</p><p>Schaefer instead sees an opportunity for a bigger role for the private market and <a href="https://www.rff.org/publications/reports/a-proposed-design-for-community-flood-insurance/" target="_blank">community flood insurance programs</a> that would allow for more detailed modeling to assess and mitigate risk.</p><p>Climate change should be creating a sense of urgency for program reforms, said Ritter. Average temperatures are increasing and the U.S. is seeing <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">rising sea levels</a> in some coastal communities. It's also getting wetter — 2018 was the sixth year in a row that average rainfall in the U.S. was more than the 20th-century average. <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_self">Hurricanes</a> are predicted to get stronger with climate change and natural disasters are already <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/natural-disasters-cost-91-billion-in-2018-federal-report.html" target="_blank">costing a fortune</a> — $91 billion in the U.S. alone last year. Hurricanes Michael and Florence accounted for $49.4 billion of those costs and resulted in more than 100 deaths.</p><p>"There is an important link between the National Flood Insurance Program and climate resiliency," said Ritter. Reforming the program "is a big opportunity to improve how we as a nation respond to and prepare for worsening impacts of climate change."</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For grassroots organizing on this issue follow <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/VeteransforClimateJustice?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#VeteransforClimateJustice</a> via Army/Air Force Vet <a href="https://twitter.com/ColleenBoland?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@ColleenBoland</a> <br><br>Flooding of Nebraska Air Force Base Illustrates Security Risk Posed by Climate Change <a href="https://t.co/ZCVyaRZc5x">https://t.co/ZCVyaRZc5x</a></p>— Dr. Sandra Steingraber (@ssteingraber1) <a href="https://twitter.com/ssteingraber1/status/1108358875206565889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 20, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p><em>Tara Lohan is deputy editor of The Revelator.</em><br/></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://therevelator.org/flood-insurance/" target="_blank">The Revelator</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Investigation Reveals Trump Admin's 'Disturbing' Disregard for Data, Science, Public Health and Environment After Hurricane Harvey
07 March 2019
Insights + Opinion
Flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey in Southeast Texas on Aug. 31, 2017. Air National Guard photo by Staff Sgt. Daniel J. Martinez
By Andrea Germanos
President Donald Trump's U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Texas state officials rejected an offer from NASA scientists in 2017 to use their state-of-the-art flying laboratory to evaluate air quality in Houston after Hurricane Harvey, new reporting by the Los Angeles Times reveals.
"This is disturbing," said Lina Hidalgo, judge for Texas's Harris County.
<p>Harvey brought <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/08/29/class-its-own-no-storm-us-history-has-unleashed-more-rain-hurricane-harvey" target="_blank">historic rainfall,</a> <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/08/28/drones-offer-devastating-footage-damage-harvey-has-wrought" target="_blank">catastrophic flooding</a> and <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2018/03/22/full-impact-still-hidden-public-report-details-environmental-assault-unleashed" target="_blank">triggered</a> potentially dangerous environmental and public health impacts: Houston's many refineries and petrochemical released pollutants into the air and waters, and area residents began to <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2017/09/12/after-harvey-texas-left-toxic-soup-sewage-spilled-fuel-pesticides-and-more" target="_blank">complain</a> of <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/03/06/%20/news/2017/08/29/harvey-triggers-unbearable-pollution-refineries-spew-cancer-causing-chemicals" target="_blank">worrisome</a> smells and toxic sights near the facilities, as well as symptoms including headaches. The EPA asserted that the air quality posed no threat.</p><p>NASA, it turned out, was in a good position to gather data on air quality in the area with <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/centers/armstrong/aircraft/DC-8/overview.html" target="_blank">its DC-8</a>. The jet, whose ability to ability to gather data dwarfs that of the EPA's <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/air-pollution">air pollution</a> plane or the hand-held devices used by Texas state officials, was already set up for testing because of a scheduled six-hour test flight to Lamont, Oklahoma on Sept. 14.</p><p>The response to NASA's offer? Thanks but no thanks.</p><p>Susanne Rust and Louis Sahagun reported for the Times:</p><blockquote>On Sept. 9, David Gray, the EPA's deputy regional administrator in Texas and leader of the agency's emergency response, wrote to NASA and Texas officials that he was "hesitant" to have the jet "collect additional information that overlaps our existing efforts" until he learned more about the mission. He noted that media and nongovernmental organizations were releasing data that was "conflicting" with the state and EPA's.</blockquote><p>The NASA scientists offered assurances that their fact-finding would not get in the way, but noted that the data would eventually be seen by the public. Texas and the EPA were unmoved.</p><p>The state-level response came from director of toxicology Michael Honeycutt, who now heads EPA's Science Advisory Board and is known for <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/elliott-negin/pruitt-scientists-key-advisory-panel" target="_blank">expressing</a> views well out of the reach of mainstream <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/science/">science</a>, such as the idea that lowering ozone would be bad for public health.</p><blockquote>On Sept. 11, Honeycutt wrote in an email to NASA and EPA officials that state data showed no sign for concern, and "we don't think your data would be useful for source identification while industry continues to restart their operations."<br>Gray agreed with Honeycutt: "EPA concurs with your assessment and we will not plan to ask NASA to conduct this mission."</blockquote><p>Associated Press reporter Frank Bajak <a href="https://twitter.com/fbajak/status/1102955314645790720" target="_blank">noted</a> that the new investigation adds weight to his own news agency's previous reporting showing that "Texas environmental regulators had little interest in exposing most post-Harvey industrial contamination."</p><p>Reacting to the reporting on Twitter, Dr. Chelsea Thompson, a research scientist in atmospheric chemistry, wrote, "It's worth noting that, over a year later now, all of us involved are still stunned by how this played out."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="1f96c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="RPP16I1576661952"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1102966984147316736" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">This is an important story from the @latimes. I was on the #NASA_ATom mission when Harvey hit and we wanted to fly… https://t.co/GHFzqQeWX2</div> — Dr. Chelsea ❄️ (@Dr. Chelsea ❄️)<a href="https://twitter.com/ArcticAirDoctor/statuses/1102966984147316736">1551802795.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Another scientist, air pollution expert Nick Vizenor, who said he was part of lab team preparing for the potential mission over Houston, said the new investigation shows the "EPA and the state of Texas did not want to have all the information it could to try and help and protect the citizens of Houston."<br></p><p>"This is yet another story that shows how little the current administration cares about [its] citizens and the environment," he said.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="1e629" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="NJUCQD1576661952"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1102990404926894080" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">This is an important story, I wasn't scheduled to be on this flight, but I was in the lab, where it was all hands o… https://t.co/KXRPfrpPQA</div> — Dr. Nick Vizenor (@Dr. Nick Vizenor)<a href="https://twitter.com/Nick_chem/statuses/1102990404926894080">1551808379.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p><br></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="50570" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6R588W1576661952"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1102990406856241152" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">While this story doesn't answer all of those questions, it certainly makes things much more clear. The EPA and the… https://t.co/7zz0sOifru</div> — Dr. Nick Vizenor (@Dr. Nick Vizenor)<a href="https://twitter.com/Nick_chem/statuses/1102990406856241152">1551808380.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>"EPA and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality knew air pollution was one of the unseen dangers of Hurricane Harvey, but according to news reports they deliberately chose not to use every available tool to discover it," added Elena Craft, senior health scientist with Environmental Defense Fund. "Their rejection of NASA's plan to fly a pollution-spotting plane over Houston after the storm is an abdication of responsibility and part of a disturbing trend of willful ignorance."<br></p><p>"Their action," she continued, "caused unnecessary risk to the health and safety of Texas families."</p>
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="b40be" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7R3YJS1576661952"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="979726404668436480" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Trump Wants to Eliminate NASA’s Climate Research Programs: These Pictures Show What a Loss That Would Be - EcoWatch https://t.co/UT5M90yQVv</div> — Aidan Gallagher (@Aidan Gallagher)<a href="https://twitter.com/AidanRGallagher/statuses/979726404668436480">1522419951.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/03/06/part-disturbing-trend-willful-ignorance-say-scientists-after-investigation-shows-epa?cd-origin=rss" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em><br></p>
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2018: A Year of Deadly Climate Disasters and an 'Ear Splitting Wake-Up Call'
28 December 2018
Climate
Aerial view of Florence, Nichols, Conway and Waccamaw, South Carolina, impacted by floodwaters on Sept. 21. South Carolina Air National Guard
2018 is set to rank as the fourth warmest year on record—and the fourth year in a row reflecting a full degree Celsius (1.8° Fahrenheit) temperature rise from the late 1800s, climate scientists say.
This was the year that introduced us to fire tornadoes, bomb cyclones and in Death Valley, a five-day streak of 125°F temperatures, part of the hottest month ever documented at a U.S. weather station.
<p>2018 also brought the world's highest-ever low temperature, as nighttime temperatures fell to a sizzling 109°F in Quiryat, Oman, on June 28, smashing a 2011 record-high low.</p><p>A startling 95 percent of the oldest and thickest <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic">Arctic</a> sea ice <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/scientists-shocked-that-warming-has-wiped-out-oldest-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-febe927ab619/" target="_blank">is now gone</a>—and we're losing Arctic <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice">ice</a> at a rate of 14,000 tons <a href="https://thinkprogress.org/scientists-shocked-that-warming-has-wiped-out-oldest-thickest-arctic-sea-ice-febe927ab619/" target="_blank">per second</a>, according to recent research, three times as fast as roughly three decades ago.</p><p>It was a year notable both for its overwhelming, climate-fueled impacts as well as its gut-wrenching predictions for what <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">climate change</a> still has in store for us if we fail to act. So much happened, frankly, that it's been hard to keep it all straight.</p><h3>Stark Warnings</h3><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTA0NzMzOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MDkxODAxMH0.SCkSpZrEy7pCCSmMUdtqLADavs15CLFM2cUEVkCaNZE/img.jpg?width=980" id="1463d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="13b1a588c06f29dc90a4e257f2ca2f84" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image">
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="add caption...">Actively eroding coastal permafrost bluff on Barter Island, located on the northern coast of Alaska, July 3, 2018 </small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="add photo credit...">Shawn Harrison, U.S. Geological Survey</small></p><p>The year delivered increasingly powerful warnings from scientists and international agencies about the need to shift away from <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels">fossil fuels</a> and slash greenhouse gas emissions. In the U.S., 2018 saw a <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/411444-trump-administration-doubles-down-on-climate-skepticism" target="_blank">presidential administration</a> and Republican-controlled Congress <a href="https://www.macombdaily.com/news/nation-world-news/gop-is-falling-in-line-with-climate-skeptics/article_4c64386e-bc40-59c0-b0e0-c1c2d7420dc7.html" target="_blank">packed with politicians</a> and administrators who <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-denier">refuse to recognize</a> the scientific consensus that the climate is changing because of fossil fuel pollution and other human activities.<br></p><p>(How strong is that consensus? We've <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2013/sep/27/global-warming-ipcc-report-humans" target="_blank">known for years</a> that the probability that greenhouse gas pollution is causing climate change is <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/causes/" target="_blank">more than 95 percent</a>—and that's according to a panel of 1,300 scientific experts from all over the world who were brought together by the United Nations.)</p><p>In fact, in 2018, the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/trump-watch/">Trump</a> administration's own U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published a 1,656 page National Climate Assessment, which <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/23/climate/us-climate-report.html?module=inline" target="_blank">warns</a> of hundreds of billions of dollars in damage on the horizon from climate change.</p><p>The Trump administration <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/25/climate/trump-climate-report.html" target="_blank">sought to bury</a> that report—but it couldn't bury a UN report, published in October, which warned that <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/08/global-warming-must-not-exceed-15c-warns-landmark-un-report" target="_blank">we have 12 years</a> to slash greenhouse gas emissions worldwide if we're to stave off the worst impacts of a changing climate.</p><p>"This report by the world's leading climate scientists is an ear-splitting wake-up call to the world," UN Secretary-General António Guterres wrote in a <a href="https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2018-10-08/statement-secretary-general-ipcc-special-report-global-warming-15-%C2%BAc" target="_blank">statement</a>. "It confirms that climate change is running faster than we are—and we are running out of time."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="e6aec" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="AEJ9J41576662435"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1049443195157966848" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The new @IPCC_ch report is a wake-up call to the world: it confirms that climate change is running faster than we a… https://t.co/FRjtlAsCmv</div> — António Guterres (@António Guterres)<a href="https://twitter.com/antonioguterres/statuses/1049443195157966848">1539041730.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Greenhouse gas emissions had climbed to a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-carbon-iea/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2017-idUSKBN1GY0RB" target="_blank">record high</a> in 2017, after a three-year period where carbon emissions held relatively steady. Levels of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/methane">methane</a>, another powerful greenhouse gas, <a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/after-2000-era-plateau-global-methane-levels-hitting-new-highs" target="_blank">also broke records</a> in 2017, following a relatively steady period of recorded global levels from 1999 to 2006.<br></p><p>"We are already seeing the consequences of 1°C of global warming through more <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather">extreme weather</a>, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, among other changes," <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/session48/pr_181008_P48_spm_en.pdf" target="_blank">added</a> Panmao Zhai, who helped prepare the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report for the UN.</p><p>Indeed, 2018 brought some of the worst natural disasters in U.S. history—many of them linked to climate change, scientists have said.</p><h3>California Wildfires</h3><p>In November, Paradise, California suffered a horrific wildfire that killed <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2018/12/03/camp-fire-death-toll-california-deadliest-wildfire/2199035002/" target="_blank">at least 85</a>, destroyed 14,000 homes and seared images of <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EsVk0bJWCNQ" target="_blank">traffic jams</a> on roads surrounded by walls of fire into the minds of millions, as those fleeing posted terrifying videos of their escapes online.</p><p>The fire was hot enough to melt <a href="https://weather.com/news/weather/video/camp-fires-flames-so-hot-aluminum-wheels-melted-into-liquid" target="_blank">the wheels</a> of cars left behind—and the cars of some who escaped <a href="https://www.ijpr.org/post/harrowing-personal-account-how-camp-fire-devastated-paradise#stream/0" target="_blank">emerged</a> from the inferno with melted headlights and rear bumpers.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-youtube">
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="afa547c0277956f50c65a858e1ec3e35"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/amUW2NrA9S8?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="add caption...">Escaping the 'Camp Fire' in Butte County</small>
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<a href="https://youtu.be/amUW2NrA9S8" target="_blank">youtu.be</a>
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</p><p>In southern California, the Woolsey Fire near Malibu <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/southern-california-woolsey-fire-fully-contained-mudslides-rain-latest-forecast-today-2018-11-21/" target="_blank">killed three</a> and burned 1,600 buildings, including <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation/in-malibu-woolsey-fire-claims-celebrities-homes/" target="_blank">homes belonging to</a> Neil Young, Miley Cyrus and other celebrities, and leaving a dark scar <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/21/us/woolsey-fire-malibu-california-burn-scar-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">visible</a> from outer space in <span style="background-color: initial;">NASA</span> images.<br></p><p>"California is vulnerable—not because of poor forest management as DT (our so-called president) would have us think," Neil Young wrote in a <a href="https://www.neilyoungarchives.com/#/news/1/article?id=Big%20Winds%20Blow&_k=1d21ky" target="_blank">statement</a> calling for action on climate change after his home was destroyed. "We are vulnerable because of Climate Change; the extreme weather events and our extended drought is part of it."</p><p>The <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/paradise-lost-inside-california-camp-fire-60-minutes/" target="_blank">Camp Fire</a> was the most deadly wildfire in the U.S. <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/11/22/5714558/" target="_blank">in a century</a>, spurred by a long-running <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought">drought</a> and the spread of tree-killing bark beetles into <a href="http://www.climatecentral.org/news/why-bark-beetles-are-chewing-their-way-through-americas-forests-15429" target="_blank">newly warming regions</a>—which together left <a href="https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/catastrophe/californias-129-million-dead-trees-pose-a-major-wildfire-hazard-110378.aspx" target="_blank">129 million dead trees</a> in the parched state.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xOTA0NzM0Mi9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTc3MTYwNX0.YRvG7dTgkFcc95Gw3KmbRC0n5b5uONQ1W-FdPcg1EII/img.png?width=980" id="47b50" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="de062668381d52468ecad5fc8af926f5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image">
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="add caption...">Dead trees along a mountain road in the Sequoia National Forest in November 2016</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="add photo credit...">U.S. Forest Service</small></p><p>But while some in Paradise plan to rebuild, to literally raise their town from ashes, a less-noticed piece of the <span style="background-color: initial;">U.S.</span> was more permanently wiped off the map. An 11-acre Hawaiian island <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/entire-hawaiian-island-was-just-erased-by-hurricane-east-walaka-chip-fletcher-monk-seals-green-sea-turtles" target="_blank">virtually disappeared</a> below the waves, the victim of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea level rise</a> and Hurricane Walaka.<br></p><p>California was hardly the only place to experience extraordinary <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wildfires">wildfires</a> in 2018. The <a href="https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2018-05-12-pyrocumulus-fire-cloud-severe-thunderstorm-hail-texas" target="_blank">Mallard Fire</a> in Texas in May grew so hot that it formed its own pyrocumulous clouds, or fire clouds, which caused a supercell thunderstorm and one-inch hail north of Wheeler, Texas.</p><p>And in July, wildfires burned inside the Arctic Circle following an unprecedented drought, with locals in Sweden <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/19/world/europe/heat-wave-sweden-fires.html" target="_blank">comparing the glow</a> from the blaze to the Northern Lights. Horrific wildfires also burned across Greece in July, <a href="http://www.startribune.com/greece-wildfire-toll-now-100-as-man-dies-months-later/502842191/" target="_blank">killing 100 people</a> and forcing hundreds more to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/greece-wildfires-athens-greeks-flee-to-sea-escape-flames-death-toll-latest/" target="_blank">flee into the sea</a> to escape the fire.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="2b567" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="RQVU8Y1576662435"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1022824879840747520" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A #firenado came dangerously close to these emergency vehicles as they battle the Carr fire near Redding, Californi… https://t.co/Ldkky1Sh3a</div> — CNN Weather Center (@CNN Weather Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/CNNweather/statuses/1022824879840747520">1532695429.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>The year began with the Montecito mudslides on Jan. 9, which killed 27 Californians and destroyed 130 homes, after a 200-year rainstorm dumped a half inch of rain in just five minutes onto steep slopes which were stripped barren of vegetation by the <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/california-fires-update-blaze-larger-new-york-city-destroys-1000-buildings-745045" target="_blank">Thomas wildfire</a>, which in early January became—at the time—<a href="https://www.vox.com/2017/12/27/16822180/thomas-fire-california-largest-wildfire" target="_blank">the largest wildfire</a> in California's history. That one-two punch bore the fingerprints of a changing climate.<br></p><p>"It wasn't just the drought; it wasn't just the fire; it wasn't just the rain. It was the compound effect," <a href="http://www.polsci.ucsb.edu/people/leah-stokes" target="_blank">Leah Stokes</a>, a climate policy researcher at UC Santa Barbara, told The Independent in January, discussing the Montecito disaster. "Climate change causes all kinds of abnormal events—you can really think of it as 'climate disruption' or 'global weirding.'"</p><h3>Flooding and Hurricanes</h3><p>2018 saw an unusually high number of violent storms, particularly in the Pacific, which saw "the most intense hurricane season ever recorded," according to <a href="https://www.popsci.com/hurricane-season-historic-atlantic-pacific#page-2" target="_blank">Popular Science</a>, including 10 storms that reached Category 4 or 5.</p><p>Climate scientists <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-scientists-mull-category-six-storm-classification-report-says/" target="_blank">proposed</a> the creation of a "Category 6" for <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes">hurricanes</a> more powerful than any yet seen. "Scientifically, [six] would be a better description of the strength of 200 mph (320km/h) storms, and it would also better communicate the well-established finding now that climate change is making the strongest storms even stronger," climatologist Michael Mann <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-scientists-mull-category-six-storm-classification-report-says/" target="_blank">told</a> CBS News.</p><p>The Atlantic coast was hit by two of the most devastating storms to hit the continental U.S., following a 2017 in whic three Category Four storms, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey">Harvey</a>, <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-irma">Irma</a> and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-maria">Maria</a>, smashed all records for hurricane damage and did over $300 billion in damage.</p><p>A year after Maria, Puerto Rico was still recovering, and the official death toll was recognized this year as 3,057 people—after Governor Ricardo Rossello <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-45338080" target="_blank">accepted</a> a report raising the number of recognized deaths from 64.</p><p>This year's worst Atlantic hurricanes, Michael and <a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/01/hurricane-florence-historic-flooding-south-carolina-climate-change" target="_blank">Florence</a>, left much of the southern U.S. underwater at points.</p><p>Michael, America's strongest-ever October hurricane, carried sustained winds of 155 miles an hour and struck the Florida panhandle, <a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/10/21/mexico-beach-house-hurricane-michael-trump-climate-denier-politicians" target="_blank">flattening towns like Mexico Beach</a>.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="02aca" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8DHP0F1576662436"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1051581029507575810" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">HURRICANE MICHAEL'S WRATH: Stunning drone footage shows the cleanup in Mexico Beach, Florida, after the storm ravag… https://t.co/uoPGUCly1d</div> — CBS News (@CBS News)<a href="https://twitter.com/CBSNews/statuses/1051581029507575810">1539551429.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Florence, meanwhile, spurred officials to <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/09/10/hurricane-florence-driving-life-threatening-conditions-toward-east-coast/1253945002/" target="_blank">call for</a> the evacuation of more than 1 million people, then left parts of the Carolinas flooded <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/us/hurricane-florence-flooding-carolinas.html" target="_blank">for weeks</a>, after it slowed to a crawl and deluged more than 8 trillion gallons of water into the region.<br></p><p>"When people say the wildfires, hurricanes and heatwaves they're experiencing are unlike anything they've seen before," Brenda Ekwurzel, director of climate science at the <a href="https://www.ucsusa.org" target="_blank">Union of Concerned Scientists</a>, said in a statement <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/24/climate-change-report-trump-administration-democrats-reaction" target="_blank">in November</a>, "there's a reason for that and it's called climate change."</p><p>Even before Florence hit, one <a href="https://www.livescience.com/63571-hurricane-florence-bigger-due-to-climate-change.html" target="_blank">study</a> found that the storm would be 50 miles wider, and dump 50 percent more rain, because of the impacts of burning fossil fuels and other greenhouse gas pollution.</p><h3>Heatwaves and Noreasters</h3><p>The year started with a prolonged run of winter storms in the Northeastern U.S., including winter storms dubbed Riley, Quinn, Skylar and Toby, which some researchers warned may have been tied to climate change—showing just how inapt the term "global warming" can be. When the jet stream <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02022018/cold-weather-polar-vortex-jet-stream-explained-global-warming-arctic-ice-climate-change" target="_blank">began to wobble</a>, it allowed cold air that would normally be trapped over the Arctic to make its way down to the continental U.S.—making the weather warmer up north and colder farther south.</p><p>The cold spell was so pronounced in New York and southern Canada that Niagara Falls <a href="http://time.com/5084294/niagara-falls-frozen-2018/" target="_blank">froze</a> on New Year's Day.</p><p>That freezing weather was <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/14/it-cant-get-much-hotter-can-it-how-heat-became-a-national-us-problem" target="_blank">followed</a> by a summer heatwave that prompted heat warnings for 100 million Americans in the summer, and caused 93 deaths in Montreal.</p><p>More than 30,000 people were hospitalized in Japan for heatstroke as summer temps soared there as well.</p><p>And while droughts hit hard in Germany, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/04/world/europe/rhine-drought-water-level.html" target="_blank">drying up</a> the Rhine river, Baltimore, Maryland has seen nearly <a href="https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/weather/bs-md-rain-update-20181221-story.html" target="_blank">70 inches of rain</a>. A <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-44287175/maryland-floods-the-city-where-roads-turned-to-rivers" target="_blank">flash flood</a> in Ellicott City, Maryland, swept away cars as roadways abruptly became rivers.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-youtube">
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a675e1e7ac0f55a92bfe6db46a6e2bd4"><iframe type="lazy-iframe" data-runner-src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/Mgs4uC3mcQ8?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="add caption...">Flash flooding hits Ellicott City, Maryland</small>
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<a href="https://youtu.be/Mgs4uC3mcQ8" target="_blank">youtu.be</a>
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</p><p><span style="background-color: initial;">"</span>The evidence, if we needed any more, continues to stack up. The record-high heatwaves, record-low Arctic sea ice, above average tropical cyclones and deadly wildfires are an alarm bell impossible to ignore," Jens Mattias Clausen, who represented <a href="http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/" target="_blank">Greenpeace</a> at the <span style="background-color: initial;">UN</span> <a href="http://cop24.gov.pl/" target="_blank">COP24</a> climate talks in Poland, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/29/four-years-hottest-record-climate-change" target="_blank">told The Guardian</a> this month. "It's no longer our future that is in peril; our today is at risk."</p>
<p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="0ab7d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="YHHEIF1576662436"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1078486964142247937" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">9 #Renewable Energy Highlights of 2018 https://t.co/roGl0U14Jq https://t.co/RfjHi9UkmK</div> — Clean Coalition (@Clean Coalition)<a href="https://twitter.com/Clean_Coalition/statuses/1078486964142247937">1545966304.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.desmogblog.com/2018/12/28/year-deadly-climate-disasters-ear-splitting-wake-call-scientists" target="_blank">DeSmogBlog</a>.</em><br></p>
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Houston’s Tall Buildings and Concrete Sprawl Made Harvey’s Rain and Flooding Worse
16 November 2018
Popular
Downtown Houston surrounded by flooding and mist after Hurricane Harvey. Prairie Pictures / The Image Bank / Getty Images
The science is clear that in order to prevent more extreme weather events like hurricanes, we need to stop burning fossil fuels. Thursday, EcoWatch reported on a study that found major hurricanes in the past decade were made five to 10 percent wetter because of global warming, and another study last year calculated that the record rainfall that flooded Texas during Hurricane Harvey was made three times more likely due to climate change.
<p>Now, a second study focusing on Hurricane Harvey that was published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0676-z" target="_blank">Nature Wednesday</a> pointed to another thing we can do to reduce the impact of these devastating storms: change the way we build cities. </p><p>Researchers at the University of Princeton and the University of Iowa used computer models and historical data to determine that urbanization in Houston made both the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> and the record rainfall worse than it would have been in a rural area, a <a href="https://www.princeton.edu/news/2018/11/15/houstons-urban-sprawl-increased-rainfall-flooding-during-hurricane-harvey" target="_blank">Princeton press release explained</a>. </p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="28260" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="P9NCEB1576663312"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1062790893537804288" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">New article published in the journal Nature by IIHR researchers and colleagues from@PrincetonU linking urban sprawl… https://t.co/nTHNnBT6ij</div> — IIHR (@IIHR)<a href="https://twitter.com/IIHRUIowa/statuses/1062790893537804288">1542224069.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>While this can help Houston make changes going forward, it also has major implications for other Southeast and Gulf cities facing the threat of wetter storms.</p><p>"Hurricane Harvey's impacts on Houston highlight hazards to coastal cities along the Gulf Coast and Eastern Seaboard of the United States," co-author and Princeton civil and environmental engineering professor James Smith said in the press release. "An unfortunate repeat performance from Hurricane Florence this year underscores the problems of extreme tropical cyclone rainfall in urban settings."</p><p>Houston has both grown up and out in recent years, and both of those had an impact on rainfall and flood risk. But how does that work exactly?</p><h2>Flooding</h2><p>Urbanization's impact on flooding is pretty common sense. More concrete streets and sidewalks means less water can be absorbed into the ground, leaving it to flood those streets instead. </p><p>Researchers compared yearly flood peaks with population growth, and also compared the contemporary results with flood peaks from the 1950s, when Houston was much less built up. Sure enough, as development increased, so did flood risk.</p><p>"Urbanization is generally associated with a significant reduction in storm-water infiltration," Director of Iowa's Hydroscience and Engineering research center (IIHR) Gabriele Villarini explained in the press release. "Houston has experienced one of the most impressive urban-development booms in U.S. history, and with growth comes an increase in impervious surfaces. This increase in urbanization, combined with the region's flat clay terrain, represents a very problematic mix, even with flood-mitigation measures in place."</p><h2>Rainfall</h2><p>The reason that urbanization increases rainfall is a little more complicated. Basically, the increased number and height of buildings creates something called "surface roughness" that increases friction and, therefore, rainfall when the storm winds blow over it. </p><p>"When Hurricane Harvey blew into Houston, it literally got snagged on the city's tall skyscrapers and towers," Villarini said. "The friction caused by high winds buffeting tall buildings created a drag effect that influenced air and heat movement and resulted in optimal conditions for precipitation."</p><p>Researchers used computer models to run the same storm over the same geographic area with Houston's current infrastructure and with open fields. They found that less rain fell and that rainfall patterns changed in the imaginary rural Houston, as this graphic shows.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-rebelmouse-image">
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8xODg0Mjk1NS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTA3MDQwOX0.yODm80UEjNTOD8svDfFp4ZQS6ZvxWE_20bADDVt9xPc/img.jpg?width=980" id="92a4e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3a11f739088ed202b497ed2796de278a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image">
<small class="image-media media-caption" placeholder="add caption...">Rainfall from Harvey in urban v. rural Houston</small><small class="image-media media-photo-credit" placeholder="add photo credit..."><a href="https://twitter.com/3rdrockhome" target="_blank">@3rdrockhome</a></small></p><p>Now that the researchers have shown the impact current urban design has on storms, they hope that urban planners will use that information to reduce risk.<br></p><p>"For every new roadway poured and for every new high-rise erected, there is an increased risk for more adverse rainfall and flooding, and that's certainly something that city officials and residents should consider when they contemplate future growth," Villarini concluded. </p>
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A flooded house in New Bern, North Carolina Thursday as the outer bands of Hurricane Florence began to douse the state. Atilgan Ozdil / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
Hurricane Florence, which the first pre-storm study of its kind shows will be more than 50 percent wetter due to climate change, began to soak North Carolina Thursday night into Friday morning, The Washington Post reported.
<p>While the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_blank">hurricane</a> was downgraded to a category 1 storm, as of 5:16 a.m. Eastern Time (ET) it had already collapsed roofs and damaged structures in Morehead City and New Bern, North Carolina and unleashed <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> that stranded more than 100 in New Bern.</p><p>Warnings are focused on rainfall and storm surge, which the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a> said could be "life threatening."</p><p>"It cannot be emphasized enough that the most serious hazard associated with slow-moving Florence is extremely heavy rainfall, which will cause disastrous flooding that will be spreading inland through the weekend," a 5:00 a.m. ET National Hurricane Center <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/140842.shtml" target="_blank">update</a> said.</p><p>And scientists can now confidently say ahead of time that 50 percent of that rain can be attributed to climate change.</p><p>A study by researchers at Stony Brook University and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory found the storm will be 50 miles larger in diameter than it would have been without climate change and deliver about 50 percent more rain, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/13/climate-change-means-hurricane-florence-will-dump-50-more-rain" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.</p><p>Scientists were able to figure out last year that chances of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricane-harvey" target="_self">Hurricane Harvey</a>'s devastating rainfall <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-hurricane-harvey-rain-2517167957.html" target="_self">were tripled</a> due to global warming, but that study took place after the storm had passed. </p><p>This is the first study to attribute a storm's characteristics to climate change before it struck. </p><p>"The idea we can't attribute individual events to climate change is out of date, it's just no longer true," study author and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory staff scientist Michael Wehner. "We've reached the point where we can say this confidently."</p><p>What exactly that climate-increased rainfall will mean for the states in Florence's path will be revealed in full over the weekend.</p><p>The storm is expected to make landfall Friday morning near Wilmington, North Carolina, according to a 6 a.m. ET update from The Washington Post. </p><p>There are currently up to 321,692 houses without power, and high water levels are expected to increase as the tide comes in, the same update said. </p><p>Flash flood warnings are in effect for Wilmington, Washington, Riverbend and Vanceboro North Carolina. </p><p>Flooding, storm surges and heavy winds are expected to persist through Saturday, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2018/09/14/us/hurricane-florence-south-east-coast-wxc/index.html?utm_source=twCNN&utm_medium=social&utm_content=2018-09-14T10%3A21%3A01&utm_term=video" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>. </p><p>The most dramatic impact so far has been in New Bern, North Carolina where more than 100 rescues were in progress after water levels rose 10 feet, Mayor Dana Outlaw said, according to CNN. </p><p>"WE ARE COMING TO GET YOU. You may need to move up to the second story, or to your attic, but WE ARE COMING TO GET YOU," The City of New Bern tweeted early Friday morning.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="bd685" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="PH2F7V1576663354"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1040487129900634112" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Currently ~150 awaiting rescue in New Bern. We have 2 out-of-state FEMA teams here for swift water rescue. More are… https://t.co/FVtwk3Gu09</div> — City of New Bern (@City of New Bern)<a href="https://twitter.com/CityofNewBern/statuses/1040487129900634112">1536906437.0</a></blockquote></div>
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