President Trump's claim last September that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama's gulf coast was quickly refuted by employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). An independent investigation found that NOAA's chief violated the agency's ethics when he backed Trump's warning and doctored map that used a Sharpie to alter the storm's path, as EcoWatch reported.
<p><br/></p>
<p>Questions linger as to why NOAA officials decided to support Trump's inaccurate warnings. Apparently, the U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees NOAA, does not want the public to know. The Commerce Department has impeded an inspector general's investigation into whether or not the administration coerced officials into supporting a false narrative and is blocking a release of the report, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.oig.doc.gov/OIGPublications/2020-07-01_IG_Memorandum_to_Secretary_Ross_re_OIG-20-031-I_%28SECURED%29.pdf" target="_blank">memo </a>from Inspector General Peggy Gustafson to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, she takes the rare step of publicly airing a dispute between an agency inspector general and a cabinet secretary, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/02/commerce-ig-sharpiegate-dispute/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>. In the memo, she claims that Ross' office "thwarted" the publication of her report. She claims that the Commerce Department has claimed that portions of the report cannot be made public, but they have not specified which portions, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p><p>The department's refusal to cooperate with the release of the investigation "appears to be directly linked to the content of our report and the findings of responsibility of the high-level individuals involved," Gustafson wrote, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>The full report has not been released, but on Monday, a <a href="https://www.oig.doc.gov/OIGPublications/OIG-20-032-I.pdf" target="_blank">summary</a> was posted that said that the department led a "flawed process that discounted NOAA participation," and also "required NOAA to issue a Statement that did not further NOAA's or [National Weather Service's (NWS)] interests," as <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/505246-commerce-department-led-flawed-process-on-sharpiegate-watchdog" target="_blank">The Hill</a> reported.</p><p>That summary also said that NOAA "failed to account for the public safety intent of the NWS Birmingham tweet and the distinction between physical science and social science messaging."</p><p>That failure to account for public safety came from NOAA's officials walking back a tweet from the NWS Birmingham's office that said "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane Dorian will be felt across Alabama."</p>
<p>It turns out the unsigned statement that contradicted NWS Birmingham's tweet was the result of pressure from the White House on Secretary Ross, who oversees NOAA and who threatened to fire the political staff at NOAA unless the contradiction of Mr. Trump was addressed, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>The full report was supposed to be released on Tuesday, but it has yet to be released, which prompted the unusual memo from Gustafson. As The Washington Post reported, Senator Maria Cantwell, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, said: "This situation has gone from bad to worse. Secretary Ross must immediately cease this campaign to keep the public in the dark. The Inspector General is doing their job and the public deserves to see the report. Release the report now, Mr. Secretary."</p>
<p>The Washington Post also noted that this year NOAA's credibility is particularly important as forecasters are predicting an active <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes">hurricane</a> season amidst the coronavirus pandemic, which is seeing a surge in vulnerable states like Florida and Texas. The need to social distance will pose unprecedented challenges for storm preparation, evacuation and response. That means NOAA's forecasts and advice need to have ironclad credibility since they are integral to public safety.</p>
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Donald Trump talks to reporters following a briefing from officials about Hurricane Dorian in the Oval Office at the White House Sep. 4, 2019 in Washington, DC. The map was a forecast from Aug. 29 and appears altered by a black marker to extend the hurricane's range to include Alabama. Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
The string of people who have compromised their professional ethics to cow to President Trump's falsehoods now officially includes the head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, who was found to have violated its ethics and its scientific integrity policy when he contradicted and silenced a local National Weather Service office about Hurricane Dorian's path last fall, an independent investigation has found, according to The New York Times.
<p>As a reminder of what happened last September, Hurricane Dorian was churning through the Caribbean, heading for Florida. Before it made landfall, Trump tweeted that Alabama would get hit "harder than anticipated."</p><p>Knowing how jarring disaster preparation and evacuations can be, the NOAA's Birmingham office <a href="https://www.axios.com/national-weather-service-on-trump-dorian-claim-c704df7a-d157-43f1-918f-5bb708ea20b9.html" target="_blank">issued a tweet</a> stressing that the state "will NOT see any impacts from Dorian." That led to an unsigned letter from NOAA saying that there was actually a 20 percent chance the hurricane would strike Alabama.</p><p>Soon after that, internal NOAA emails showed concern from top officials that politics was interfering in scientific matters, which the agency's acting chief scientist called a danger to public health and safety, as <a href="https://www.axios.com/noaa-sharpiegate-investigation-74d5f6c6-7004-4cb1-bd94-4d22a7942f1e.html" target="_blank">Axios</a> reported.</p>
<p>The controversy came to be known as "Sharpiegate," after Trump showed an altered map that included Alabama's southeast corner in the storm's path.</p><p>That led to the current independent investigation. The <a href="https://nrc.noaa.gov/Portals/0/SIC/Memo%20for%20the%20Record%20Scientific%20Misconduct%202019-007%20to%202019-101%20Final.pdf?ver=2020-06-15-104657-903" target="_blank">panel of experts</a> found that Neil Jacobs, NOAA's acting administrator, and former NOAA deputy chief of staff and communications director Julie Kay Roberts, "engaged in the misconduct intentionally, knowingly, or in reckless disregard of the Code of Scientific Conduct or Code of Ethics for Science Supervision and Management in NOAA's Scientific Integrity Policy," as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/15/politics/noaa-leadership-trump-sharpie-hurrican-dorian/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM5Njc4MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwNjY0NzQ4OH0.YZMLMDBjGNPIbRl_NAxT-VGdYXgrJM9ZetGcv4nP4wg/img.jpg?width=980" id="a3e37" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="caefb5443fb44a30b2e4ddf4552ab6b5" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Official portrait of NOAA acting administrator Neil Jacobs. NOAA
<p>It turned out that the unsigned letter that contradicted NOAA scientists was a clear example of political loyalty interfering with scientific misinformation. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, who oversees NOAA, threatened to fire the political staff at the agency unless the contradiction of Mr. Trump was addressed.</p><p>The independent panel said that Jacobs and Roberts twice violated codes of the agency's scientific integrity policy amid their involvement in the Sept. 6 statement, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/15/noaa-investigation-sharpiegate/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>.</p><p>"It will be clear to anyone reviewing the accounts captured in this highly credible, independent Scientific Integrity report that the political leaders who interfered in our emergency response system need to publicly apologize or resign," said Rep. Paul Tonko, a New York Democrat who made an integrity complaint and is the sponsor of a bill that would increase accountability for such violations across federal <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/science/" target="_self">science</a> agencies, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/15/noaa-investigation-sharpiegate/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported.</p>
<p>The report that was released yesterday was led by Stephen M. Volz, an assistant administrator at NOAA. He called for the agency to guarantee "the right of NOAA scientists to review, comment, and amend any official communication that relies on their scientific analysis," as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/climate/noaa-sharpiegate-ethics-violation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6945152-Memo-for-the-Record-Scientific-Misconduct-2019.html" target="_blank">report</a> also called for clear delineation between NOAA's scientific arm and the Department of Commerce, "acknowledging the responsibility for NOAA to own the scientific content and allowing for Commerce to weigh in on policy content."</p>
<p>It's worth noting that the report, which is from the National Academy of Public Administration, had limits on its scope. It was not allowed to interview the Commerce Department officials who demanded the unsigned statement be released, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/06/15/noaa-investigation-sharpiegate/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported.</p><p>That omission bothered Michael Halpern, deputy director of the Center for Science and Democracy at the Union of Concerned Scientists, who told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/15/climate/noaa-sharpiegate-ethics-violation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> the report stopped short of providing accountability. "In the immediate term, there are no consequences for the senior leaders who betrayed their scientific staff," Mr. Halpern said.</p>
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Bahamians in Humanitarian Crisis After Dorian Now Denied Ability to Live and Work in U.S.
12 September 2019
Climate
Hundreds of those displaced by Hurricane Dorian gather at a port that was turned into a distribution and evacuation center in Marsh Harbour, Bahamas on Sept. 7. Carolyn Van Houten / The Washington Post / Getty Images
The Trump administration will not grant temporary protected status to people evacuating the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian, the White House announced Wednesday. On the same day, Bahamian authorities said that around 2,500 people are listed as missing after the strongest storm to ever hit the country.
<p>Temporary protected status would have allowed Bahamians displaced by the <a href="hurricanes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hurricane</a> to live and work in the U.S. until it is safe for them to return home, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/trump-admin-will-deny-temporary-protected-status-bahamians-who-fled-n1052561?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR0Nvq7j5Bn8bxPgWO99RQlayMJ0DS_VQK0LhqjA42qGOUc_YhnbLWPpH00" target="_blank">NBC News explained</a>. Currently, more than 300,000 people from 10 countries are living in the U.S. with this status, including evacuees from the 2010 Haitian earthquake. Bahamians can still travel to the U.S. with the right documents, but will not be able to work.</p>
<div id="308e7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="W1BFVU1576661476"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171881132662677507" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">TPS: A form of humanitarian relief for people who face extreme hardship if forced to stay/return to countries devas… https://t.co/9bdBHqmhyS</div> — RAICES (@RAICES)<a href="https://twitter.com/RAICESTEXAS/statuses/1171881132662677507">1568233209.0</a></blockquote></div><p>"The Bahamians impacted by Hurricane Dorian are facing a humanitarian crisis, and the American government, international partners and private organizations continue to support them with aid and services. At this time, we do not plan to invoke Temporary Protected Status for those currently in the United States," a White House official said, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian-immigration-bahamas-idUSKCN1VW2OS?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d79b161145a570001545309&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1KkXxLeKr4veW7h0C52d2RzVQfR5_vAJJnZKA5RHrin9meawCdeWLUG1s" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>.</p><p>Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan said Monday it would be "appropriate" to extend the status to Dorian evacuees, but President Donald Trump appeared to oppose the idea later, as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/10/politics/bahamas-tps-protections/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>.</p><p>"I don't want to allow people that weren't supposed to be in the Bahamas to go to the United States, including some very bad people and some very bad gang members and some very, very bad drug dealers. So we are going to be very, very strong on that," Trump said.</p><p>The news <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/bahamas-residents-dorian-turned-away-2640285274.html" target="_self">also comes days after</a> Dorian evacuees were ordered off a ferry from Freeport in the Bahamas to Florida if they did not have visas. Bahamians are typically allowed to enter the U.S. with just a passport and clean criminal record, but the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced Monday that Bahamians traveling by sea now need a visa, Reuters reported.</p><p>The administration's decisions raised concerns about how it would respond to current and future <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugee" target="_self">climate refugees</a>. <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">Extreme weather</a> events <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/un-extreme-weather-climate-change-2633131018.html" target="_self">displaced two million people in 2018</a>, and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-migrants-2518914887.html" target="_self">between 150 and 300 million</a> are likely to be displaced by 2050.</p><p>"Stop saying the US doesn't have a climate policy. We do. It's monstrous," climate scientist Dr. Kate Marvel tweeted in response to Trump's remarks.</p>
<div id="55752" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="56Z5WU1576661476"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171399265685577728" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Stop saying the US doesn’t have a climate policy. We do. It’s monstrous. https://t.co/J6G6NX6UKc</div> — Kate Marvel (@Kate Marvel)<a href="https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/statuses/1171399265685577728">1568118323.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Meanwhile, the Bahamas continue to grapple with Dorian's toll. The government announced that around 2,500 were still missing Wednesday, though that number may include people who evacuated to shelters, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian-idUSKCN1VW2A7?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d79aca94b188d00011c2bd9&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR16rps2eVMoNHqALbKh7tRHSmxfi7rInRnYcJMnq3LJlVV5T5QaxTz8opg" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>.</p><p>Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said the death toll was currently at 50, but the number missing meant it would likely not stay there.</p><p>"The number of deaths is expected to significantly increase," he said.</p><p>And for the survivors, these numbers are personal.</p><p>"My friends are missing, a few of my cousins are missing over there, five in total, they lived in Marsh Harbour," 38-year-old tour guide Clara Bain told Reuters. "Everyone on the islands are missing someone, it's really devastating."</p><p>So far, around 5,000 people have been evacuated from the Grand Bahama and Abacos Islands, the islands most devastated by the storm, while 6,000 to 7,000 remain, as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49666942" target="_blank">BBC News reported</a>.</p><p>Hundreds are living in temporary shelters in the capital of Nassau, and there are plans to build two tent cities near Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco Island. Around 90 percent of homes and buildings in the town were damaged or destroyed, Reuters reported.</p>
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NOAA Officials Backed Trump’s False Dorian Claims Under Threat of Firing, Sources Say
10 September 2019
Politics
President Donald Trump shows reporters a map of a predicted path of Hurricane Dorian following a briefing from officials in the Oval Office at the White House Sept. 4. Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
On Monday, EcoWatch reported how National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officials had sided with President Donald Trump's false claims that Hurricane Dorian would impact Alabama and against the National Weather Service (NWS) office that moved swiftly to correct the record. Now, new information reported by The New York Times Monday reveals that the NOAA officials acted out of fear for their jobs.
<p>Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross threatened to fire political appointees at NOAA after the Birmingham, Alabama NWS <a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/status/1168179647667814400?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168179647667814400&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecowatch.com%2Fres%2Fcommunity%2Ftwitter_embed%2F%3Fiframe_id%3Dtwitter-embed-1168179647667814400%26created_ts%3D1567350706.0%26screen_name%3DNWSBirmingham%26text%3DAlabama%2Bwill%2BNOT%2Bsee%2Bany%2Bimpacts%2Bfrom%2B%2523Dorian.%2BWe%2Brepeat%252C%2Bno%2Bimpacts%2Bfrom%2BHurricane%2B%2523Dorian%2Bwill%2Bbe%2Bfelt%2Bacross%2BAla%25E2%2580%25A6%2Bhttps%253A%252F%252Ft.co%252FtI2SqytJga%26id%3D1168179647667814400%26name%3DNWS%2BBirmingham" target="_self">tweeted</a> a correction of President Trump's misleading Sept. 1 <a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1168174613827899393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1168174613827899393&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecowatch.com%2Fres%2Fcommunity%2Ftwitter_embed%2F%3Fiframe_id%3Dtwitter-embed-1168174613827899393%26created_ts%3D1567349506.0%26screen_name%3DrealDonaldTrump%26text%3DIn%2Baddition%2Bto%2BFlorida%2B-%2BSouth%2BCarolina%252C%2BNorth%2BCarolina%252C%2BGeorgia%252C%2Band%2BAlabama%252C%2Bwill%2Bmost%2Blikely%2Bbe%2Bhit%2B%2528much%2529%2Bharde%25E2%2580%25A6%2Bhttps%253A%252F%252Ft.co%252FG9N3uqS9Pd%26id%3D1168174613827899393%26name%3DDonald%2BJ.%2BTrump" target="_self">tweet</a> listing Alabama among the states that would "likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated" by Dorian, three sources familiar with the situation told The New York Times. </p><p>Alabama was not in the storm's cone of uncertainty when the tweets were sent. But Ross's threat prompted NOAA to issue a controversial statement Friday supporting the President's claims over the Birmingham forecasters' assertion that Alabama would "NOT see any impacts" from the storm. NOAA's statement pointed to a small chance that tropical-storm-force winds would reach a small portion of the state.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="78a59" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="L24R9J1576661487"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170087457444061186" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Whoa! Nothing like throwing your "Alabama" NWS office under the bus. https://t.co/Fx0oAdWlh7</div> — Ryan Maue (@Ryan Maue)<a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/statuses/1170087457444061186">1567805563.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>The New York Times explained how that statement came to be:<br></p><blockquote>Mr. Ross phoned Neil Jacobs, the acting administrator of NOAA, from Greece where the secretary was traveling for meetings and instructed Dr. Jacobs to fix the agency's perceived contradiction of the president.<br><br>Dr. Jacobs objected to the demand and was told that the political staff at NOAA would be fired if the situation was not fixed, according to the three individuals, who requested anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the episode.</blockquote><p>The Commerce Department, which oversees NOAA, denied the three sources' claims.</p><p>"The New York Times story is false," a spokesman told <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/09/759209532/noaa-chief-scientist-says-move-to-contradict-agency-and-back-trump-was-political?utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR2D_Az8lzKUz3OOtF-leUFwfyIhign20Qx_XnJy5b0ro8CWxmmW1iKynAI" target="_blank">NPR in an email</a>. "Secretary Ross did not threaten to fire any NOAA staff over forecasting and public statements about Hurricane Dorian."</p><p>But the fallout from Friday's statement is leading to internal investigations and even a call for Ross to resign from Rep. Don Beyer (D-VA), who serves on the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology.</p><p>"His direct attacks on the scientists and federal employees, whom he threatened to fire for doing their jobs by accurately reporting the weather, are an embarrassing new low for a member of this Cabinet which has been historically venal and incompetent," Beyer said in a statement reported by NPR.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="5784e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="CF3T451576661487"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171171386779418625" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Wilbur Ross must resign.
His direct attacks on the scientists and federal employees, whom he threatened to fire fo… https://t.co/He7ADv3NlR</div> — Rep. Don Beyer (@Rep. Don Beyer)<a href="https://twitter.com/RepDonBeyer/statuses/1171171386779418625">1568063992.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Friday's NOAA statement is the subject of an investigation by the Commerce Department's Office of Inspector General, The New York Times reported. NOAA's acting chief scientist Craig McLean also said he would investigate the statement to see if it violated the agency's policies and ethics, according to a Sunday email obtained by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/09/noaas-chief-scientist-will-investigate-why-agency-backed-trump-over-its-experts-dorian-email-shows/?wpisrc=al_politics__alert-politics&wpmk=1" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>.<br></p><p>"The NWS Forecaster(s) corrected any public misunderstanding in an expert and timely way, as they should," McLean wrote in the email. "There followed, last Friday, an unsigned news release from 'NOAA' that inappropriately and incorrectly contradicted the NWS forecaster. My understanding is that this intervention to contradict the forecaster was not based on science but on external factors including reputation and appearance, or simply put, political."</p><p>NWS Director Louis Uccellini also broke with NOAA leadership to defend the Birmingham team at a meteorology conference in Huntsville, Alabama Monday. He asked all NWS members to stand and earned a minute-long standing ovation for his remarks and for the Birmingham office's actions.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="8c8e1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="JXDOJ71576661487"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171056056971251712" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Wow! What a powerful moment and moving show of support with a standing ovation for WFO Birmingham. Thank you… https://t.co/cCzCQnF3Ww</div> — Rick Smith (@Rick Smith)<a href="https://twitter.com/ounwcm/statuses/1171056056971251712">1568036495.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>"They did what any office would do," Uccellini said. "With an emphasis they deemed essential, they shut down what they thought were rumors. They quickly acted to reassure their partners, the media and the public—with strong language—that there was no threat. They did that with one thing in mind: public safety."<br></p>
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NOAA Directed Staffers Not to Contradict Trump on Misleading Dorian Claims
09 September 2019
Politics
President Donald Trump references a map held by acting Homeland Security Secretary Kevin McAleenan while talking to reporters following a briefing from officials about Hurricane Dorian on Sept. 04. Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
Can the U.S. under President Donald Trump still trust government-issued weather reports?
That's the question at the heart of a Saturday report from The Washington Post that leadership at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) directed staff not to contradict Trump's claims that Hurricane Dorian would impact Alabama.
<p>The controversy began Sept. 1 when Trump sent a tweet listing Alabama among the states that what would "likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated" by the approaching <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hurricane</a>, as <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/noaa-contradicting-trump-dorian-alabama_n_5d753853e4b07521022e541a" target="_blank">HuffPost reported</a>.</p>
<div id="89628" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1D5SLR1576661492"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168174613827899393" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">In addition to Florida - South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama, will most likely be hit (much) harde… https://t.co/G9N3uqS9Pd</div> — Donald J. Trump (@Donald J. Trump)<a href="https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/statuses/1168174613827899393">1567349506.0</a></blockquote></div><p>But Alabama was not in the National Hurricane Center's "cone of uncertainty," which meteorologists use to predict a storm's likely path, The Washington Post explained. Trump's tweet prompted concerned residents to call the Birmingham, Alabama office of the National Weather Service (NWS), which is operated by NOAA. In response, the Birmingham NWS tweeted that Alabama would "NOT see any impacts" from the hurricane.</p>
<div id="a2cd9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="X14KEA1576661492"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168179647667814400" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Alabama will NOT see any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will be felt across Ala… https://t.co/tI2SqytJga</div> — NWS Birmingham (@NWS Birmingham)<a href="https://twitter.com/NWSBirmingham/statuses/1168179647667814400">1567350706.0</a></blockquote></div><p>After both tweets were posted, NOAA sent an email to NWS staff instructing them to "only stick with official National Hurricane Center forecasts if questions arise from some national level social media posts which hit the news this afternoon."</p><p>They were also told not to "provide any opinion," according to the email obtained by The Washington Post.</p><p>NWS staff received a similar email on Sept. 4, after Trump displayed an Aug. 29 forecast map during a White House briefing that had been altered with a black marker to include Alabama in the cone of uncertainty.</p>
<div id="c28f7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="GQVVJY1576661492"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1169300628000124929" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">President @realDonaldTrump gives an update on Hurricane #Dorian: https://t.co/CmxAXHY5AO</div> — The White House (@The White House)<a href="https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/statuses/1169300628000124929">1567617968.0</a></blockquote></div><p>"This is the first time I've felt pressure from above to not say what truly is the forecast," an anonymous NOAA meteorologist told The Washington Post. "It's hard for me to wrap my head around. One of the things we train on is to dispel inaccurate rumors and ultimately that is what was occurring — ultimately what the Alabama office did is provide a forecast with their tweet, that is what they get paid to do."</p><p>The Washington Post report came a day after NOAA issued an unsigned statement supporting the President's claims that Dorian would impact Alabama, as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/06/758532041/noaa-contradicts-weather-service-backs-trump-on-hurricane-threat-in-alabama?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1kDniGUuuj9d9YliCyDzj_KWMC5S-lDYlyxI04u14q3gwbIV7VxEaw8QA" target="_blank">NPR reported</a>.</p><p>"The Birmingham National Weather Service's Sunday morning tweet spoke in absolute terms that were inconsistent with probabilities from the best forecast products available at the time," the statement said.</p><p>"Some administrator, or someone at the top of NOAA, threw the National Weather Service under the bus," University of Miami hurricane researcher Brian McNoldy told NPR.</p>
<div id="78a59" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="QQO5YA1576661492"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170087457444061186" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Whoa! Nothing like throwing your "Alabama" NWS office under the bus. https://t.co/Fx0oAdWlh7</div> — Ryan Maue (@Ryan Maue)<a href="https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/statuses/1170087457444061186">1567805563.0</a></blockquote></div><p>A NOAA official told The Washington Post there was no "political motivation" behind Friday's statement, and that it had been issued because a NOAA forecast had shown a five to 10 percent chance that tropical storm force winds would hit a small part of Alabama. However, such winds rarely cause enough damage to warrant advance preparation, The Washington Post pointed out.</p><p>Oklahoma University meteorology professor Jason Furtado told <a href="https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/09/06/noaa-changes-tune-on-trumps-alabama-storm-warning/" target="_blank">The Associated Press</a> that NOAA's statement and the president's tweets could erode confidence in meteorologists.</p><p>"The job just got harder because of this issue," he said.</p>
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'This Is Eco-Apartheid': Post-Dorian Refugees Fleeing Bahamas Ordered Off Ferry Bound for U.S.
09 September 2019
Popular
Two women cry after arriving at the Port of Palm Beach on the cruise ship Grand Celebration on Sept. 7 in West Palm Beach, Florida. ProtectionSaul Martinez / Getty Images
By Julia Conley
Hundreds of Bahamian refugees were ordered off a ferry headed for Ft. Lauderdale, Florida from Freeport in the Bahamas days after Hurricane Dorian pummeled the islands, leaving at least 44 people dead and tens of thousands without homes.
<p>After the refugees boarded the boat, operated by Balearia Caribbean, a crew member announced over the loudspeaker that anyone without a visa would be turned away by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and must disembark immediately.</p><p>"Please, all passengers that don't have a U.S. visa, please proceed to disembark," the crew member said.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="a3c9d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="MZAV631576661495"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170849997765652480" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Another announcement just made ordering any Bahamian without a US visa to disembark ferry — not allowed to evacuate… https://t.co/ZJ9XMzXNVd</div> — Brian Entin (@Brian Entin)<a href="https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/statuses/1170849997765652480">1567987367.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Brian Entin, a reporter for <em>WSVN 7 News</em> in Miami, was reporting from the boat and posted a video on social media of the shocked refugees leaving the ferry.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="4c92e" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4ATDFH1576661495"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170845476482158592" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Big problems on the ferry from Freeport to Florida — announcement just made that any Bahamian without a visa must n… https://t.co/bqpa7HJbRm</div> — Brian Entin (@Brian Entin)<a href="https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/statuses/1170845476482158592">1567986289.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>As Entin wrote, under CBP protocol Bahamians are regularly permitted to enter the U.S. with just a passport and a clean criminal record. On Saturday, about 1,500 evacuees arrived in Florida from the islands on a cruise ship called Grand Celebration, and none were required to show visas when they disembarked in Florida.</p><p>Entin posted a video of the boat pulling away from Freeport after leaving dozens of families in the decimated Caribbean country.</p><p>"I think this is terrible. I think they should allow everyone to come into the U.S.," a woman who had been permitted to stay on the boat told the reporter. "They said 130 people had to come off. And now we're leaving them."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="d477f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ISZR9K1576661496"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170857537454911488" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">That’s it. We’re leaving — all Bahamian evacuees without a visa taken off. The Bahamians who remain are in shock. N… https://t.co/OYyHV9EE1h</div> — Brian Entin (@Brian Entin)<a href="https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/statuses/1170857537454911488">1567989165.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Climate scientists have <a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/06/innovative-solutions-plight-climate-migrants-190630170338398.html" target="_blank">warned</a> for years that the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather">extreme weather</a> events caused by a rapidly warming planet are already creating <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugee" rel="noopener noreferrer">climate refugees</a> around the world and will force many more people from their homes.</p><p>The videos drew outrage on social media, with University of Pennsylvania sociology professor Daniel Aldana Cohen calling the removal of the refugees "eco-apartheid."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="2ca53" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3JHEKH1576661496"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170895288762077186" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">This is #ecoapartheid https://t.co/yVTogyopYo</div> — Daniel Aldana Cohen (@Daniel Aldana Cohen)<a href="https://twitter.com/aldatweets/statuses/1170895288762077186">1567998165.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>CBP <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/09/09/bahamas-survivors-visa-ferry-stranded-cpb/?arc404=true" target="_blank">told</a> <em>WSVN</em> that the ferry operator made the decision to force the refugees off the boat, but according to the ferry crew, the agency informed Balearia Caribbean that people without visas would not be allowed into the United States.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="2a3c8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9UZMF61576661496"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170892156069769216" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A little more from crew on the ferry. They say they were told it was ok to accept Bahamian evacuees with passport a… https://t.co/ACDdLjJDtO</div> — Brian Entin (@Brian Entin)<a href="https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/statuses/1170892156069769216">1567997418.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>"Even if this rule change were acceptable, how would any Bahamian apply for a visa right now?" tweeted Marissa Jackson Sow, deputy commissioner of the New York City Coalition on Human Rights. "This is beyond cruel."</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="ec512" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="DY8FZE1576661496"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1170871812068171776" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Even if this rule change were acceptable, how would any Bahamian apply for a visa right now? And how would anyone b… https://t.co/eXmYjJS7f3</div> — Marissa Jackson Sow (@Marissa Jackson Sow)<a href="https://twitter.com/MarissaEsque/statuses/1170871812068171776">1567992568.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/09/eco-apartheid-post-dorian-refugees-fleeing-bahamas-ordered-ferry-bound-us?fbclid=IwAR3-iyOHfwLEI_AM9Am3UCEPwMnwYmn4Yx7TlCusR0hO_9ZVRZysW72mp1g" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>. </em></p>
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As Dorian Lashes the Carolinas, the Bahamas Grapple With ‘Unimaginable’ Losses
06 September 2019
Climate
Aerial view of damage after Hurricane Dorian passed through on Sept. 5 in Great Abaco Island, Bahamas. Hurricane Dorian hit the island chain as a category 5 storm battering them for two days before moving north. Jose Jimenez / Getty Images
Hurricane Dorian lashed the Carolinas with wind, flooding and tornadoes Thursday, as the storm's death toll in the Bahamas rose to 30, The Washington Post reported.
The storm, downgraded to a Category 1 <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes" target="_self">hurricane</a> Friday morning, was located 25 miles east of Cape Lookout, North Carolina at 5 a.m., according to the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/060852.shtml" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>. Its eye could touch the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday morning. But while Dorian knocked out power for nearly 200,000 people in South Carolina, as well as 9,000 in North Carolina and 7,000 in Georgia, <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/060852.shtml" target="_blank">as The New York Times reported</a>, overall its impacts on the Eastern U.S. have not been as devastating as feared.
<video controls id="b44b9" width="100%" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5b552e2348f8e9b7a7e57aea259b62a5" expand="1" feedbacks="true" mime_type="video/mp4" shortcode_id="1567773215736" url="https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/runner%2F14097-Dorian_Nearing_South_Carolina.mp4" videoControls="true"> <source src="https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/runner%2F14097-Dorian_Nearing_South_Carolina.mp4" type="video/mp4"> Your browser does not support the video tag. </video><p>"This is not going to be one of those storms that goes down in our history or in our record books," Thomas Bell, the spokesman for the emergency management agency in Horry County, South Carolina, told The Washington Post. "This was not a disaster or a catastrophe — especially compared to some of the storms we've seen recently, like Florence last year."<br></p>
<div id="381c6" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="GAEQRG1576661504"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1169624311335981057" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">This video speaks for itself, but please STAY INDOORS and OFF THE ROAD during #HurricaneDorian.💨😱
#HorryReady… https://t.co/HNsYHkD2AX</div> — Horry County PD (@Horry County PD)<a href="https://twitter.com/horrycountypd/statuses/1169624311335981057">1567695141.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The same could not be said for the Bahamas, where officials and residents are still taking stock of the devastation. Officials ordered more body bags, morticians and coolers to the impacted islands as hundreds to thousands of people remain missing.</p><p>"The public needs to prepare for unimaginable information about the death toll and the human suffering," Health Minister Dr. Duane Sands said, as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/06/us/hurricane-dorian-bahamas-friday/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>.</p><p>The hurricane may have damaged or destroyed 45 percent of homes on Grand Bahama and the Abaco Islands, <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49602445" target="_blank">BBC News reported</a>. Thirty-five inches of rain caused widespread flooding, and Grand Bahama's only international airport was severely damaged.</p>
<div id="adaa7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1GAT7X1576661504"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168901534966587396" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">These satellite images show Grand Bahama before and after Hurricane Dorian's wrath https://t.co/VumnBGWnZw https://t.co/4wDsAMbagE</div> — CNN (@CNN)<a href="https://twitter.com/CNN/statuses/1168901534966587396">1567522817.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Great Abaco is "virtually uninhabitable," BBC News said. There is no water, power or food on the island. Over all, the UN estimates that around 70,000 people in the Bahamas will need some form of disaster aid, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/05/abaco-islanders-flee-hurricane-dorians-destruction" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.</p><p>"I have nothing left. Absolutely nothing. Only the clothes that I have on my body right now," Great Abaco resident Kathlyn Russell, who was evacuated to Nassau Wednesday, told The Guardian.</p><p>Dorian's passage up the Carolina Coast was far less damaging, but still dramatic. Two tornadoes touched down in North Myrtle Beach and Little River, South Carolina and several in North Carolina, The New York Times reported. One, in Carolina Shores, North Carolina, caused property damage, but no injuries.</p>
<div id="06e11" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="SRRHQ61576661504"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1169661430557282310" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A scene of destruction after a tornado touched down in the Carolina Shores neighborhood The Farm at Brunswick in NC… https://t.co/rzQjKn13hO</div> — Jason Lee (@Jason Lee)<a href="https://twitter.com/TSN_JLee/statuses/1169661430557282310">1567703990.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The storm also flooded streets in Charleston, South Carolina and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/06/us/hurricane-dorian-updates.html?module=inline" target="_blank">Wilmington, North Carolina</a>. Wilmington International Airport recorded 8.93 inches of rain Thursday. Messages on an electronic street sign in one Wilmington neighborhood alternated between "Be safe!" and "Not even your mom loves you, Dorian!"</p><p>Dorian hit the Bahamas as a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest storm to ever impact the island chain. Hurricanes are becoming more extreme and destructive because of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate crisis</a>. BBC Weather's Tomasz Schafernaker explained. Schafernaker gave two reasons:</p><blockquote>An increase in sea surface temperatures strengthens the wind speeds within storms and also raises the amount of precipitation a hurricane will dump<br><br>Sea levels are expected to increase by one to four feet over the next century, bringing the potential of far worse damage from sea surges and coastal flooding during storms</blockquote>
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Pope Francis Urges World to Act Fast on Climate Emergency Pointing to Increase in Extreme Weather
03 September 2019
Climate
Franco Origlia / Getty Images / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0
Pope Francis on Sunday — when Hurricane Dorian began pounding the Bahamas with record strength — urged the world to heed calls made by rising youth and indigenous peoples to take swift action to address the climate crisis and thereby ensure "our common future."
<p>"We have caused a climate emergency that gravely threatens nature and life itself, including our own," the pontiff said.</p><p>The pope's plea came in his <a href="http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/messages/pont-messages/2019/documents/papa-francesco_20190901_messaggio-giornata-cura-creato.html" target="_blank">message</a> for the World Day of Prayer for the Care of Creation, an annual celebration he <a href="http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/letters/2015/documents/papa-francesco_20150806_lettera-giornata-cura-creato.html" target="_blank">called for</a> in 2015.</p><p>In the new message, the pope denounced human exploitation of the environment and pointed to increasingly frequent <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" rel="noopener noreferrer">extreme weather</a> and water scarcity as well as "constant pollution, the continued use of fossil fuels, intensive agricultural exploitation, and deforestation [that] are causing global temperatures to rise above safe levels."</p><p>"In this ecological crisis affecting everyone," the pope continued, "we should also feel close to all other men and women of good will, called to promote stewardship of the network of life of which we are part."</p><p>The appeals for action — including ditching <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels" rel="noopener noreferrer">fossil fuels</a> — were addressed at individuals and political leaders. He wrote:</p><blockquote>It is also a season to reflect on our lifestyles, and how our daily decisions about food, consumption, transportation, use of water, energy, and many other material goods, can often be thoughtless and harmful. Too many of us act like tyrants with regard to creation. Let us make an effort to change and to adopt more simple and respectful lifestyles! Now is the time to abandon our dependence on fossil fuels and move, quickly and decisively, towards forms of clean energy and a sustainable and circular economy. Let us also learn to listen to indigenous peoples, whose age-old wisdom can teach us how to live in a better relationship with the environment.</blockquote><p>While the pope didn't mention by name the Fridays for Future and School Strike for Climate movement, he made note of the young people "calling for courageous decisions." He said they remind all that Earth is "an inheritance to be handed down" and, in a possible <a href="https://www.fridaysforfuture.org/greta-speeches#greta_speech_jan25_2019s" target="_blank">reference</a> to teen activist Greta Thunberg, said that "hope for tomorrow is not a noble sentiment, but a task calling for concrete actions here and now."</p><p>Addressing political leaders, he said, "Let us say 'no' to consumerist greed and to the illusion of omnipotence, for these are the ways of death." Instead, said Pope Francis, leaders should undertake "farsighted processes involving responsible sacrifices today for the sake of sure prospects for life tomorrow."</p><p>"Let us not give in to the perverse logic of quick profit," he said, "but look instead to our common future!"</p><p>The upcoming U.N. climate action <a href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/" target="_blank">summit</a> later this month, the pope added, is an opportunity "to respond to the cry of the poor and of our earth."</p><p>The call for decisive action came as Hurricane Dorian unleashed <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/02/it-pure-hell-here-videos-bahamas-show-devastation-left-hurricane-dorian-category-5" target="_blank">devastation</a> on a climate-changed planet.</p><p>"No hurricane in Atlantic history has ever rapidly intensified from a high-end Category 4 to a high-end Category 5," meteorologist Eric Holthaus wrote on Twitter Sunday. "We are in a climate emergency."</p><p><br></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="4a5b3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5O9WUJ1576661523"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168255509679333377" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">No hurricane in Atlantic history has ever rapidly intensified from a high-end Category 4 to a high-end Category 5.… https://t.co/vhNP6nBJBH</div> — Eric Holthaus (@Eric Holthaus)<a href="https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/statuses/1168255509679333377">1567368793.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>In a Monday morning advisory, the National Hurricane Center <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/02/%20https%3A//www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Dorian" target="_blank">said</a> that Dorian was "sitting over Grand Bahama Island with extremely dangerous winds and surge."<br></p><p>"For Grand Bahama," said disasterologist Samantha Montano, the situation "is about as bad as a hurricane can get."</p><p><br></p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="585b5" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6URJXC1576661523"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168491405125308417" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Hurricane speed is tricky. You want it moving fast enough that it doesn’t just sit on you (think Harvey) but slow e… https://t.co/CSXvmCN6s4</div> — Dr. Samantha Montano (@Dr. Samantha Montano)<a href="https://twitter.com/SamLMontano/statuses/1168491405125308417">1567425035.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Dorian is <a href="https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2019-09-02-hurricane-dorian-labor-day-bahamas-florida-georgia-carolinas" target="_blank">expected</a> to be a threat for several states along the U.S. East Coast as the week continues, and officials in nine Florida counties already <a href="https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-02-hurricane-dorian-florida-impacts-evacuations-cancellations" target="_blank">issued</a> evacuation orders. Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina also declared states of emergency as the hurricane approaches.<br></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/09/02/category-5-dorian-devastates-pope-francis-urges-world-act-fast-climate-emergency" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>
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Hurricane Dorian, one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record, continues to pummel the Bahamas, where it has killed at least five people and destroyed thousands of homes, The New York Times reported.
<p>"We are in the midst of a historic tragedy in parts of the northern Bahamas," Prime Minister Hubert A. Minnis said at a press conference Monday reported by The New York Times. "Our mission and focus now is search, rescue and recovery. I ask for your prayers for those in affected areas and for our first responders."</p><p>When Dorian made landfall in the Abaco Islands Sunday as a Category 5 hurricane, it was the strongest storm to ever hit the chain, <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/02/756719127/slow-moving-dorian-batters-bahamas-as-a-category-5-hurricane?utm_term=nprnews&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR0lQVJngAZ3DVoq9w7ZlwsGpfIUGl1LXrEMDf2s6qmLGMma8zwMp9jOO7Q" target="_blank">NPR reported</a>. It made landfall with sustained winds of 185 miles per hour, tying with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for the strongest winds at landfall of any Atlantic hurricane, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/01/hurricane-dorian-has-smashed-all-sorts-intensity-records/?fbclid=IwAR3w_CMoNkmiS-7G83_qgTADhlnpS7cGWyy8ehiLarC5LJzBmZ6Ow025Gl0" target="_blank">The Washington Post's Capital Weather Gang</a>.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="e1fce" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="VYU5E01576661526"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168236327503970305" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">#Dorian hit #GreatAbaco Island in the #Bahamas with sustained winds of 185 mph, tied for the strongest landfall any… https://t.co/7r31DyClvE</div> — Brian McNoldy (@Brian McNoldy)<a href="https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/statuses/1168236327503970305">1567364219.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>As of Sept. 1, Dorian had broken a number of other records. It is the strongest storm ever east of Florida and north of the Caribbean, and it intensified at record speed Sunday when its winds strengthened from 150 to 185 miles per hour within a nine hour period. It is also the fifth Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic in the last four years, making 2019 the fourth year in a row with a Category 5 storm, something that has never happened before.<br></p><p>Dorian's strength and rapid intensification are both in keeping with predictions for how the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate crisis</a> will shape hurricanes, The Washington Post said. </p><p>After lashing the Abaco Islands, where all of the deaths reported so far occurred, the storm stalled over Grand Bahama for most of Monday, The New York Times reported. It is still "nearly stationary" over the island, according to a 5 a.m. update from the <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/030853.shtml?" target="_blank">National Hurricane Center</a>, but is expected to begin moving north or northwest Tuesday morning.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="dd9e0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="W0EGC41576661526"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168627511917449217" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Dorian has now gone stationary. More misery for NW Bahamas. https://t.co/OSnj0Uf2i2</div> — Phil Ferro (@Phil Ferro)<a href="https://twitter.com/PhilFerro7/statuses/1168627511917449217">1567457485.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>Dorian has unleashed massive <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> in Abaco and Grand Bahama, which are home to 70,000 people, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/03/a-historic-tragedy-hurricane-stalls-over-bahamas-causing-huge-damage" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>. One radio station said that it received more than 2,000 distress calls, and at least two shelters have flooded. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies estimated that 13,000 homes may have been damaged or destroyed.<br></p><p>In one neighborhood in Freeport, Grand Bahama, water levels rose six feet.</p><p>"It looks like they're boats on top of the water," 61-year-old resident Rosa Knowles-Bain told The Guardian of flooded homes. </p><p>Another Freeport resident LaToy Williams shared video footage of his submerged yard on Twitter, as <a href="https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bahamas-suffer-destructive-blow-from-deadly-hurricane-dorian/70009227" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">AccuWeather reported</a>.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="b2bec" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="BXT0LI1576661526"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168482526249328640" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">My front yard!! #HurricaneDorian2019 keep praying!! We waiting for the eye of the hurricane so they can come save u… https://t.co/ewBKldmz6L</div> — LaToy Williams (@LaToy Williams)<a href="https://twitter.com/Toy242/statuses/1168482526249328640">1567422918.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p></p><p>The storm, now a Category 3 hurricane, is predicted to move "dangerously close" to Florida's East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday and "very near" the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday and Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center. It will arrive "near or over" the North Carolina coast late Thursday.<br></p><p>Nine Florida counties have issued mandatory evacuations ahead of Dorian's arrival, The Guardian reported. Among them are Duval County, which covers the city of Jacksonville, and Palm Beach County, where President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is located. Coastal counties in Georgia, South Carolina and Virginia have also ordered evacuations.</p><p class="shortcode-media shortcode-media-twitter_embed">
</p><div id="a4259" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="UCVRG11576661526"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1168440006530256896" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">"Please someone, please come help us": Bahamas residents survey devastated apartment building after Hurricane Doria… https://t.co/eFTOTWyex0</div> — ABC News (@ABC News)<a href="https://twitter.com/ABC/statuses/1168440006530256896">1567412780.0</a></blockquote></div>
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Workers place hurricane shutters over a window as they help prepare for the arrival of Hurricane Dorian on Aug. 30 in Miami Beach. Joe Raedle / Getty Images
The National Hurricane Center forecast on Aug. 29 that Hurricane Dorian could make landfall this weekend and bring large amounts of rain, strong winds and potential flooding from storm surge.
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Florida has declared a state of emergency and residents are preparing for what could be a Category 4 hurricane on the state's Atlantic coast. Here are three articles from The Conversation's archive that provide context on how people can <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-rural-areas-like-floridas-panhandle-can-become-more-hurricane-ready-116500" target="_blank">prepare for hurricanes</a>.
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By contrast, his research found that social networks more narrowly focused on family and friends were less likely to evacuate before a hurricane.
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"This is a critical insight," Aldrich writes. "People whose immediate, close networks are strong may feel supported and better-prepared to weather the storm."
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Understanding how people use their social networks is important because choosing to stay can create more risk of harm and damage when storms do finally come.
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<em>Editor's note: This story is a roundup of articles from The Conversation's archives.</em>
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<em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://theconversation.com/preparing-for-hurricanes-3-essential-reads-122702" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em>
</p><script async="async" data-counter="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/122702/count?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" id="theconversation_tracker_hook" src="https://theconversation.com/javascripts/lib/content_tracker_hook.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
1. Predicting the path and power
<p>Hurricane Dorian has already moved past Puerto Rico and is expected to gain strength as it travels over the warm Atlantic waters off the coast of Florida. Yet forecasters say there's a <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/08/29/hurricane-dorian-florida-guard-potential-major-hurricane-strike/" target="_blank">great deal of uncertainty</a> regarding this storm.</p><p>Meteorologists Mark Bourassa and Vasu Misra from Florida State University explain how hurricane forecasts are done – using a number of software-based models that generate predictions of where hurricanes will go, and how strong they'll be from starting conditions, such as wind speeds and ocean temperatures.</p><p>Aided by observational data from buoys and aircraft flown into developing storms, forecasts for the paths of hurricanes — which are tropical cyclone storm systems <a href="https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/cyclone.html" target="_blank">that originate in the Atlantic</a> — have improved significantly over the past decade, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-meteorologists-predict-the-next-big-hurricane-102827" target="_blank">they write</a>. But that's not true for hurricane intensity.</p><p>"It's extremely difficult for a model to estimate the maximum wind speed of a tropical cyclone at any given future time," write Bourassa and Misra. "Small-scale features of tropical cyclones – like sharp gradients in rainfall, surface winds and wave heights within and outside of the tropical cyclones – <a href="https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0026.1" target="_blank">are not as reliably captured in the forecast models</a>."</p><div id="f6204" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="W49S1R1576661538"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1167179514259988480" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Here are the #Dorian Key Messages for August 29, 5 pm EDT. Hurricane Watches could be issued for portions of the B… https://t.co/stDJ9d1LeC</div> — National Hurricane Center (@National Hurricane Center)<a href="https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/statuses/1167179514259988480">1567112256.0</a></blockquote></div>2. When to stay and when to go
<p>Experts recommend heeding evacuation warnings. But how do state officials know when to call for a mandatory evacuation?</p><p>Hazard expert Susan Cutter from the University of South Carolina says that there are two measurable factors that can go into the calculation: when sustained tropical force winds are expected to arrive and clearance time, or the amount of time needed for vehicles in an area to reach points of safety.</p><p>But in the end, the practice of calling for an evacuation is as much <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-science-skill-and-luck-behind-evacuation-order-calls-103209" target="_blank">science as it is a skill based on experience — and luck</a>.</p><p>"It is hard to predict the path of hurricanes, and even more so the behavior of people in response to them. There is a lot of uncertainty in the projections of both, which is why you often hear emergency managers say better to be safe than sorry," she writes.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTA2OTc4Ni9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwMDMxNDYxN30.EceotQprCNI7N3iqhRg0-K4w1ookl4IlP3kdIOnrjCA/img.png?width=980" id="4e0c9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4b568d838d8f80295272568a3bbbf090" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />When sustained tropical storm winds are projected to arrive is one of the key factors in deciding when states call for mandatory evacuations.
3. The role of social networks
<p>Social sciences researcher Daniel Aldrich wanted to get more insight into when people choose to evacuate and when they don't.</p><p>Analyzing social media following disasters, <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-social-networks-can-save-lives-when-disasters-strike-103131" target="_blank">Aldrich found</a> that people with far-reaching social networks — that is, connections beyond their immediate families and close friends — were more likely to evacuate in the days leading up to a hurricane.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMTA2OTc4Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0ODA3NDY0Nn0.M4hBBN9dav0oEd7Y9_7MJ9drFF8ijmvUfj6rWT3mQ3w/img.png?width=980" id="2cb96" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="56ac3fdce377ddc60589d179f8f4d24a" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />Visualizing the exodus of Miami-area residents in the days prior to Hurricane Irma's landfall. Each dot represents an aggregate group of users within 0.5 latitude/longitude degrees, colored by evacuees (in blue) and non-evacuees (in red).
Danae Metaxa / Paige Maas / CC BY-SA
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