Sea level rise causes water to spill over from the Lafayette River onto Llewellyn Ave in Norfolk, Virginia just after high tide on Aug. 5, 2017. This road floods often, even when there is no rain. Skyler Ballard / Chesapeake Bay Program
By Tim Radford
The Texan city of Houston is about to grow in unexpected ways, thanks to the rising tides. So will Dallas. Real estate agents in Atlanta, Georgia; Denver, Colorado; and Las Vegas, Nevada could expect to do roaring business.
<p>The inland counties around Los Angeles, and close to New Orleans in Louisiana, will suddenly get a little more crowded. And from Boston in the north-east to the tip of Florida, Americans will be on the move.</p><p>That is because an estimated 13 million U.S. citizens could some time in this century become <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugees">climate refugees</a>, driven from their seaside homes by <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea level rise</a> of possibly 1.8 meters (approximately 5.9 feet), according to new research.</p>
<p>And they will have to move home in a poorer economic climate, worldwide. If governments and city authorities do not take the right steps, <a href="https://iiasa.ac.at/web/home/about/news/200127-Sea-Level-Rise.html" target="_blank">sea level rise could erode 4% of the global annual economy</a>, says a separate study. That is, coast-dwellers could witness not just their towns and even cities washed away: they could see their prosperity go under as well.</p><p>Californian scientists report in <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0227436" target="_blank">the Public Library of Science journal PLOS One</a> that they used machine learning techniques – in effect, artificial intelligence systems – to calculate what is most likely to happen as U.S. citizens desert Delaware Bay, slip away from the cities of North and South Carolina, and flee Florida in the face of rising sea levels, coastal flooding and increasingly catastrophic windstorms.</p><p>In the year 2000, a third of all the planet's urban land was in a zone vulnerable to flood. By 2040, this could rise to 40%. In 2010, in the U.S., more than 120 million citizens – that is nearly 40% of the entire population – lived in coastal counties. By 2020, this proportion could already be higher.</p><p>And by 2100, <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/american-climate-refugees-flee-inland/" target="_blank">at least 13.1 million people could be living on land likely to be inundated</a> if sea levels rise by 1.8 meters. Except that they won't: they will have already seen the future and moved away from it, to some settlement well away from the rising tides.</p><p>Those who might otherwise have purchased their abandoned seaside houses will be looking for somewhere safer and adding to the pressure on the housing market.</p><p>"Sea level rise will affect every county in the United States," said <a href="https://viterbi.usc.edu/directory/faculty/Dilkina/Bistra" target="_blank">Bistra Dilkina of the University of Southern California at Irvine</a>, a computer scientist who worked with engineers to model the human response to the future.</p><p>She and her colleagues started from patterns of movement that began with Hurricane Katrina, in 2004, and Hurricane Rita a year later, both in Louisiana. They then let the algorithms take over the challenge of guessing what American families and businesses are most likely to do as the tides begin to flood the high streets.</p>
<h3>Action Promised</h3><p>"We hope this research will empower urban planners and local decision-makers to prepare to accept populations displaced by sea level rise. Our findings indicate that everybody should care about sea level rise, whether they live on the coast or not," she said.</p><p>The California team's worst-case forecasts are based on a premise that the world takes no real action to combat sea level rise, which is driven by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">global warming</a> powered in turn by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels">fossil fuel</a> emissions into the atmosphere on an ever-increasing scale.</p><p>But in Paris in 2015, <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/what-is-the-paris-agreement" target="_blank">more than 190 nations did agree to act</a>: to contain global warming to "well below" 2°C by the century's end. So far, very few have committed to sufficient action, and the president of the U.S. has pronounced climate change a "hoax" and <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/climate-history-bunk/" target="_blank">announced a withdrawal from the Paris agreement</a>.</p><p>Researchers in Austria report in the journal <a href="https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab6368" target="_blank">Environmental Research Communications</a> that they decided to consider the potential economic cost worldwide of sea level rise alone. Scientists have been trying for years <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/coastal-flooding-may-cost-100000-bn-a-year-by-2100/" target="_blank">to guess the cost of flood damage to come</a>: the latest study is of the impact of sea level rise and coastal flooding upon national economies worldwide.</p><p>The scientists considered two scenarios, including one in which the world kept the promises made in Paris, and one in which it did not, and made no attempt to adapt to or mitigate climate change.</p>
<h3>Significant Impact</h3><p>By 2050 losses in each scenario would be significant and much the same. But by 2100, the do-nothing option promised to hit the gross domestic product – an economist's favorite measure of economic well-being – by 4%.</p><p>Europe and Japan would be significantly hit; China, India and Canada hardest of all. If the world's richest nations actually worked to limit climate change and adapt to the challenges ahead, the impact on the economy could be limited to 1%.</p><p>"The findings of this paper demonstrate that we need to think long term while acting swiftly," said <a href="https://www.iiasa.ac.at/web/home/research/researchPrograms/RISK/Thomas_Schinko.html" target="_blank">Thomas Schinko of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria</a>, who led the study.</p><p>"Macroeconomic impacts up to and beyond 2050 as a result of coastal flooding due to sea level rise – not taking into account any other climate-related impacts such as drought – are severe and increasing.</p><p>"We, as a global society, need to further co-ordinate mitigation, adaptation and climate-resilient development and consider where we build cities and situate important infrastructure."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://climatenewsnetwork.net/rising-tides-will-leave-no-choice-for-us-millions/" target="_blank">Climate News Network</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Flooding in Pakistan triggers a national emergency. Asian Development Bank, / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
By Steve Trent
Imagine if you couldn't feed your children and had to leave your home because of fossil fuels burned in a far-off country. That's what people on the front lines of climate change face today.
<p><span></span>The climate crisis is now creating <a href="https://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/2016-global-report-on-internal-displacement-grid-2016" target="_blank">more refugees than war</a>. In recent years <a href="https://ejfoundation.org/what-we-do/climate/protecting-climate-refugees" target="_blank">tens of millions</a> of people around the world have been driven from their homes by drought, storms, flooding and fires. Over the next 50 years, climate change could cause a refugee crisis on an unprecedented scale.</p><p>Where will people go when their countries become inhospitable? Will the governments of the world accept them?</p><p>In January the United Nations recognized the severity of these questions and formally stated that it may be unlawful for governments to return people to countries where their lives would be put at risk by the climate crisis.</p><p>The United Nations should be applauded for standing up for some of the most vulnerable people on the planet. And while this opens the door to establishing protections to ensure climate refugees receive the same legal protections as those fleeing war or persecution, it doesn't yet guarantee that: We need a comprehensive international plan.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://therevelator.org/climate-refugees-trent/" target="_blank">The Revelator</a>. </em><em></em></p>
Climate, Conflict and the Universal Right to Life
<p>Time is already running short for some.</p><p>Pacific island states, in particular, find themselves at imminent risk from climate change, as even moderate sea-level rise may swamp many beneath the waves.</p><p>It's this threat that drove Ioane Teitiota, a resident of the Republic of Kiribati, to apply for asylum in New Zealand in 2015 — the first time a person identified himself as a climate refugee. Teitiota cited overcrowding, failing crops, contaminated water supplies, social tensions and violence as among the reasons he needed to leave his island home, which at its highest point isn't even 10 feet above sea level.</p><p>Teitiota is far from alone. Around the world the climate crisis is making violence more likely by causing shortages of food, water and safe environments. This has had a role in multiple conflicts already, <a href="https://ejfoundation.org/reports/climate-2017" target="_blank">including the devastating Syrian civil war</a>.</p><p>Despite the risk to his island nation, Teitiota's application was rejected because the Supreme Court of New Zealand ruled his life was not in immediate danger. The 10-15 years before Kiribati will be underwater, the court found, would be enough time for other arrangements to come to light.</p><p>But Teitiota brought his case to the U.N. Human Rights Committee — the body of experts responsible for upholding international civil rights — which led to January's decision. While the committee accepted New Zealand's original judgment, there was one hopeful outcome: It stated that in the future countries may be acting unlawfully if they return someone to their country of origin when that person's right to life is threatened by the climate crisis.</p><p>Essentially, this sets the stage to provide climate refugees a similar legal status to people fleeing war or persecution.</p><p>This is significant, but it raises even more questions.</p><p>We don't know how immediate the danger should have to be for someone to be able to claim asylum because of the climate crisis, or how an individual might be required to prove their level of vulnerability.</p><p>We do know that individuals can still be returned to their home country if there's any safe location in that country at all.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjY2NzE3NC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyNTAyOTI1MX0.9yL_01bD4s33mlpXTtO3NmwKjoi3QpyXFqlCdZA1O1g/img.jpg?width=980" id="1f655" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="20f7cc7e1aec997d86e1d15ed0191bfc" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
The aftermath of Cyclone Idai, which displaced hundreds of thousands in Mozambique in 2019. Denis Onyodi / IFRC / DRK / Climate Centre / CC BY-NC 2.0
Three Key Next Steps
<p>These outstanding questions — what makes someone a climate refugee, the immediacy of danger required, and how to assess the safety of whole countries — must form the fundamental building blocks of an international agreement on tackling the climate crisis and the changes in migration patterns it will bring.</p><p>This new international agreement, separate from the Geneva Convention, should provide a legal definition of climate refugees, and how they should be protected, as the first step to a global agreement. If countries can agree on what being a climate refugee means, then people forced to leave their homes because of <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/2229118-sea-levels-in-bangladesh-could-rise-twice-as-much-as-predicted/" target="_blank">rising</a> seas, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/12/indian-villages-lie-empty-as-drought-forces-thousands-to-flee" target="_blank">unbearable</a> heat, or related threats will get the protection they deserve.</p><p>Beyond these direct effects, climate breakdown often acts to magnify and multiply conflicts and resource shortages. An international agreement on climate refugees must recognize the complex and multifaceted nature of climate change and its related societal threats.</p><p>On the topic of the safety and integrity of entire countries, a new international agreement must also resist the temptation to buy a small amount of time by sending people to areas that are only temporarily safer than the ones they left. It must seek long-term solutions that can secure notions of sovereignty and cultural identity alongside the economic, social and environmental needs of forced migrants.</p><p>The United Nations has laid down the first stage of the theory. Now all nations must come together to make climate justice a reality.</p>From Your Site Articles
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The Diwalwal Gold Mine in Mindanao, Philippines on Feb. 1, 1988. Destruction of the environment by extractive industries is linked to significant threats to women's safety, a new study has found. Patrick AVENTURIER / Gamma-Rapho via Getty Images
By Julia Conley
Climate action leaders have warned for years that marginalized frontline communities in poor countries are already facing the most destructive impacts of the climate crisis, and a new study confirms those fears, detailing how women in those regions are at greater risk for violence and abuse as the environment is degraded.
<p>The International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) released its <a href="https://portals.iucn.org/library/sites/library/files/documents/2020-002-En.pdf" target="_blank">study</a> on Wednesday after conducting more than 80 case studies and speaking to more than 300 sources over the course of a two-year project.</p><p>"This study adds to the urgency of halting environmental degradation alongside action to stop gender-based violence in all its forms, and demonstrates that the two issues often need to be addressed together," <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/gender/202001/environmental-degradation-driving-gender-based-violence-iucn-study" target="_blank">said </a>Dr. Grethel Aguilar, IUCN's acting director-general.</p>
<p>The study is the largest and most comprehensive to ever examine the gender-specific effects of the climate crisis, IUCN says.</p><p>Of the more than 300 responses IUCN compiled from international organizations working in developing countries, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/29/climate-breakdown-is-increasing-violence-against-women?CMP=share_btn_tw" target="_blank">six in 10 respondents</a> said they had observed gender-based violence directed at female environmental defenders, <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugees" target="_self">climate refugees</a> and migrants, and an increase in such violence in areas where the climate crisis and global heating has put a strain on resources.</p><p>Abuses the organizations uncovered include child marriage and forced marriage, forced prostitution, sexual violence and assault, and human trafficking.</p>
<p>"As environmental degradation and stress on ecosystems increases, that in turn creates scarcity and stress for people, and the evidence shows that, where environmental pressures increase, gender-based violence increases," said Cate Owren, lead author of the report.</p><p>The publication was praised by women's rights advocates on social media.</p><p>"The fight against the climate crisis will have far more of an impact if represented by those most affected," tweeted the British Women's Equality Party.</p>
<div id="f129a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="X98CWN1580407510"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1222592795996819462" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">One more illustration of the need to consider impact on #gender upfront in any policy.
Climate breakdown 'is incr… https://t.co/KzT4jytnOZ</div> — Melinda Simmons (@Melinda Simmons)<a href="https://twitter.com/MelSimmonsFCO/statuses/1222592795996819462">1580323811.0</a></blockquote></div>
<div id="af2d1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="UAIPSS1580407510"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1222536381462958080" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">The correlation between increasing #environmental stresses and #genderviolence highlights the imminent need to elec… https://t.co/07bpOGKXFN</div> — WomensEqualityUK (@WomensEqualityUK)<a href="https://twitter.com/WEP_UK/statuses/1222536381462958080">1580310361.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The study found that both human trafficking and forced child marriage are becoming increasingly common in places where chronic drought, flooding and heatwaves have caused crop yields to suffer and brought on a scarcity of resources.</p><p>"When families struggle to meet basic needs, marrying off young daughters is seen as a way to lighten financial burdens," the report reads. "There is growing concern around reports of an increase in child marriage associated with conflict and natural disasters and environmental shocks."</p><p><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jan/29/climate-breakdown-is-increasing-violence-against-women?CMP=share_btn_tw" target="_blank">According to</a> The Guardian<em>,</em> about 12 million more young girls are believed to have been married off after <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">extreme weather</a> events increased, while human trafficking increases by 20 to 30% after weather disasters.</p><p>"In most parts of the world, women are already disadvantaged and lack land rights and legal rights, so are vulnerable to exploitation," wrote Fiona Harvey in The Guardian<em>.</em> "When the additional stresses caused by the climate crises bite, they are the first to be targeted."</p>
<p>The destruction of the environment by extractive industries has significant effects on women's safety, as an influx of male miners, construction workers and security guards is linked to an increase in gender-based and sexual violence, often with <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/indigenous-peoples" target="_self">Indigenous</a> women as targets.</p><p>"Mining areas, many of which are in Indigenous territories, have seen heavy military presence, resulting in various human rights violations, such as torture, psychological disturbance, destruction and divestment of properties (livestock and crops), as well as violence against women, including rape," reads the study in a section about the Mindanao region of the Philippines.</p><p>Sexual violence is also used to suppress women who attempt to defend their homes and environments from extractive industries, and to intimidate others who may come forward in protest.</p>
<p>"Environmental crimes degrade ecosystems, and also often bring new, worsening patterns of violence against women, minorities, and marginalized communities,"<a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/gender/202001/environmental-degradation-driving-gender-based-violence-iucn-study" target="_blank"> said</a> Jenny Springer, director of IUCN's global program on governance and rights. "Many Indigenous women in particular face gender-based and other violence as their communities act to defend their territories, resources and rights from such illegal activities."</p><p>Since women in many parts of the world are responsible for gathering water and provisions for their families, they are often at an increasingly greater risk for gender-based violence as they have to travel farther from home, as resources shrink.</p><p>IUCN surveyed the Danish Refugee Council, which conducted a study at Doro Refugee Camp in South Sudan regarding dangers faced by residents there. Women in the study identified collecting firewood outside the camp as the biggest risk they regularly took.</p>
<p>"Food insecurity and the lack of firewood forces women and girls to go outside of the camps to collect firewood despite the risks of suffering violence by militias, private forest owners, rangers or other unknown perpetrators," the report reads. "Many ... survey respondents also raised these concerns as one of the major threats in refugee camps as related to emergency responses and protracted crises."</p><p>IUCN's study was released a day after CARE International published its <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/28/largely-driven-climate-crisis-9-out-10-least-reported-humanitarian-crises-2019-were" target="_blank">report</a> "Suffering in Silence," showing how the climate crisis has exacerbated conflicts and economic and political instability across Africa, making the continent home to nine of the 10 most-overlooked humanitarian crises in the world.</p><p>"Environmental degradation now affects our lives in ways that are becoming impossible to ignore, from food to jobs to security," <a href="https://www.iucn.org/news/gender/202001/environmental-degradation-driving-gender-based-violence-iucn-study" target="_blank">said</a> Aguilar. "This study shows that the damage humanity is inflicting on nature is also fueling violence against women around the world — a link that has so far been largely overlooked."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/01/29/new-study-details-overlooked-link-between-climate-breakdown-and-violence-against?cd-origin=rss" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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The people of Kiribati have been under pressure to relocate due to sea level rise. A young woman wades through the salty sea water that flooded her way home on Sept. 29, 2015. Jonas Gratzer / LightRocket via Getty Images
Refugees fleeing the impending effects of the climate crisis cannot be forced to return home, according to a new decision by the United Nations Human Rights Committee, as CNN reported. The new decision could open up a massive wave of legal claims by displaced people around the world.
<p>The first-of-its-kind ruling opens the door for a new kind of legal claim to future protections for people whose lives and health are threatened by a warming planet and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise">sea-level rise</a>, according to legal experts, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> reported. The <a href="https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/treatybodyexternal/Download.aspx?symbolno=CCPR%2fC%2f127%2fD%2f2728%2f2016&Lang=en" target="_blank">ruling</a> is expected to have profound consequences as the impacts of the climate crisis are predicted to displace tens of millions of people.</p><p>The UN Human Rights Committee ruling started from the case of Ioane Teitiota, who applied for refugee protection from New Zealand, claiming that his life was at risk in his home country of Kiribati, which is predicted to be one of the first countries lost due to sea-level rise, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/world/climate-refugees-unhrc-ruling-scli-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported. Kiribati is an equatorial island nation in the middle of the Pacific that spans 1.3 million square miles, but only has 310 square miles of land and roughly 110,000 people.</p><p>The committee heard Teitiota's claim that his home island South Tarawa had increased in population by nearly 50 times from 1,641 in 1947 to 50,000 in 2010 due to sea level rising, leading to other islands becoming uninhabitable. That explosion in population has led to violence and social tensions, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> reported.</p>
<p>Teitiota claimed that a shortage of freshwater and difficulty growing crops because of the salinity of the water posed a threat to him and his family. Further, he argued that because the island is predicted to be uninhabitable in 10 to 15 years, his life was in danger if he remained there, according to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.</p><p>The committee did not fully agree with him. It rejected his claim that he faced an imminent threat to his life. It said, "sea level rise is likely to render the republic of Kiribati uninhabitable … the timeframe of 10 to 15 years, as suggested by [Teitiota], could allow for intervening acts by the republic of Kiribati, with the assistance of the international community, to take affirmative measures to protect and, where necessary, relocate its population," according to the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.</p>
<p>However, the committee added that New Zealand and every country would violate a person's international rights if they force them back to countries where the climate crisis poses an immediate threat, according to <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/world/climate-refugees-unhrc-ruling-scli-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a>.</p><p>That decision, which is not legally binding to countries, does point to obligations that developed countries will face as the climate crisis intensifies. In addition to sea-level rise, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/world/climate-refugees-unhrc-ruling-scli-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> pointed out that <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought">droughts</a> and crop failure are also expected to contribute to the tens of millions who will need to move to other areas in coming years. Furthermore, a World Bank study from 2018 found that 143 million people across South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America are at risk of becoming climate migrants.</p><p>"Without robust national and international efforts, the effects of climate change in receiving states may expose individuals to a violation of their rights," its <a href="https://tbinternet.ohchr.org/_layouts/15/treatybodyexternal/Download.aspx?symbolno=CCPR%2fC%2f127%2fD%2f2728%2f2016&Lang=en" target="_blank">ruling</a> said, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/world/climate-refugees-unhrc-ruling-scli-intl/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>"What's really important here, and why it's quite a landmark case, is that the committee recognized that without robust action on climate at some point in the future it could well be that governments will, under international human rights law, be prohibited from sending people to places where their life is at risk or where they would face inhuman or degrading treatment," said Jane McAdam, director of the Kaldor center for international refugee law at the University of New South Wales, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/20/climate-refugees-cant-be-returned-home-says-landmark-un-human-rights-ruling" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>. "Even though in this particular case there was no violation found, it effectively put governments on notice."</p>
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A U.S. Border Patrol agent gathers personal effects from immigrants before they are transferred to a McAllen processing center on July 02, 2019 in Los Ebanos, Texas. John Moore / Getty Images
Poverty and violence in Central America are major factors driving migration to the United States. But there's another force that's often overlooked: climate change.
<iframe style="border: none" src="//html5-player.libsyn.com/embed/episode/id/12167930/height/45/theme/standard/thumbnail/yes/direction/backward/" height="45" width="100%" scrolling="no" allowfullscreen webkitallowfullscreen mozallowfullscreen oallowfullscreen msallowfullscreen></iframe>
<p>Retired Lt. Cmdr. Oliver Leighton Barrett is with the Center for Climate and Security. He says that in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador, crime and poor economic conditions have long led to instability.<br></p><p>"And when you combine that with protracted <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought">drought</a>," he says, "it's just a stressor that makes everything worse."</p><p>Barrett says that with crops failing, many people have fled their homes.</p><p>"These folks are leaving not because they're opportunists," he says, "but because they are in survival mode. You have people that are legitimate <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugees">refugees</a>."</p><p>So Barrett supports allocating foreign aid to programs that help people in drought-ridden areas adapt to climate change.</p><p>"There are nonprofits that are operating in those countries that have great ideas in terms of teaching farmers to use the land better, to harvest water better, to use different variety of crops that are more resilient to drought conditions," he says. "Those are the kinds of programs I think are needed."</p><p>So he says the best way to reduce the number of climate change migrants is to help people thrive in their home countries.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/12/how-climate-change-influences-immigration-to-the-united-states/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em><br/></p>From Your Site Articles
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Victims of climate change protest for climate refugees on the occasion of the Global Climate March on Nov. 28, 2015 in Kutubdia Island, Bangladesh. Zakir Hossain Chowdhury / Barcro / Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Over the past decade, climate-fueled disasters drove over 20 million people a year from their homes, concluded a report released by Oxfam on Monday. The Oxfam study, titled "Forced from Home," was released as two weeks of UN climate negotiations kick-start in Madrid.
<p>It examined the numbers of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugees">people displaced</a> inside their home countries by climate-fueled disasters between 2008 and 2018, based on government and international agency data, as well as media reports.</p><p>"Today people are seven times more likely to be internally displaced by cyclones, <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding">floods</a> and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wildfires">wildfires</a> as they are by <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/earthquakes">earthquakes</a> and volcanic eruptions, and three times more likely than by conflict," the report said.</p><p>While no one is immune, people in <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/building-walls-to-keep-climate-refugees-out/a-48273469" target="_blank">poor countries are most at risk</a>, the NGO said. "People in low and lower-middle income countries such as India, Nigeria and Bolivia are over four times more likely to be displaced by <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather">extreme weather</a> disasters than people in rich countries such as the United States."</p>
<p>Seven of the top 10 countries with the highest displacement by proportion of their population were <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-drives-solomon-islands-people-of-the-sea-ashore/a-40777201" target="_blank">small island developing states, largely in the Pacific</a> and the Caribbean, the report found.</p><p>Asia is the continent most affected, said Oxfam, noting that around 80% of all people displaced over the last decade live there.</p><p>"Our governments are fueling a crisis that is driving millions of women, men and children from their homes and the poorest people in the poorest countries are paying the heaviest price," said Chema Vera, Acting Executive Director of Oxfam International.</p>
<h2>Costs Rising Quickly</h2><p>Overall, the number of <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coping-with-climate-anxiety-on-a-warming-planet/a-51198686" target="_blank">weather disasters considered extreme</a> grew five-fold over the last decade, researchers said.</p><p>As more people leave their homes as a result of weather disasters, costs — and threats to social stability — are rising quickly for the countries trying to manage that displacement, often with few resources, the report said.</p><p>At the UN climate talks in Madrid, environmental and development groups are pushing to establish a fund to help countries already reeling from climate-enhanced heat waves, droughts, floods and storms made worse by wilder weather and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-level-rise" target="_self">rising seas</a>.</p><p>Poor and vulnerable nations are set to receive $100 billion annually from next year to prepare for future impacts, but no concrete provisions exist yet for "loss and damage" already incurred.</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/climate-change-forces-20-million-people-to-flee-each-year-says-oxfam/a-51494606" target="_blank">DW</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Portrait of smiling girl reading book at school in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Towfiqu Photography / Moment / Getty Images
In recent decades, the education of girls around the world has increased dramatically. But climate change threatens to reverse some of that progress.
<p>Extreme weather can increase poverty and force families to leave their homes.</p><p>In Bangladesh, for example, coastal flooding has forced many poor, rural people to migrate to Dhaka, a crowded megacity.</p>
<p>Saniye Gülser Corat is director of the division for gender equality at UNESCO, a UN agency. She says when families are forced to migrate, girls often take on additional responsibilities.</p><p>"They take care of their siblings. They take care of the disabled and the elderly. They are hired out as a help to others," she says. "So in most cases, even when education possibilities exist, girls are not usually the ones who can take advantage."</p><p>She says families struggling to survive may also encourage their teenage daughters to get married because "it is one less mouth to feed."</p><p>That tends to cut short their education, so she says climate change could be life-altering for women and girls around the globe.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/10/climate-change-threatens-to-reverse-recent-progress-in-educating-girls/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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'Oceans Are Sending Us so Many Warning Signals': New UN Climate Change Report
25 September 2019
Oceans
'Sunset in the Oil Belt' in Claxton Bay, Trinidad, West Indies. Leslie-Ann Boisselle / World Meteorological Organization
It's time for low-level coastal communities to head for the hills. Once-in-a-hundred-years sea level events will be an annual occurrence by 2050.
<p>The <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans" target="_self">oceans</a> will rise three feet by 2100, fish will struggle to survive, ocean currents will weaken, snow and ice will start to vanish, and we will need to brace for stronger and wetter <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes">hurricanes</a> and harsher El Niño weather systems, according to a new <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/" target="_blank">UN report</a> released Tuesday, as the <a href="https://www.apnews.com/7fd1d533c53d46629c842d201145ab73" target="_blank">AP</a> reported.</p><p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/report/srocc/" target="_blank">report</a> issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders in policymaking, warns that warming seas are contributing to a drop in fish populations, and ocean oxygen levels are dropping while acidity levels are starting to spike, which threatens fragile <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/marine-life">marine ecosystems</a>. The warming waters are also fueling wetter and more intense hurricanes and cyclones, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/climate/climate-change-oceans-united-nations.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported. The fact is ocean surface temperatures have been warming steadily since 1970, and for about the past 25 years, they've been warming twice as fast.</p>
<p>"The oceans are sending us so many warning signals that we need to get emissions under control," said Hans-Otto Pörtner, a marine biologist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany and a lead author of the report, to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/climate/climate-change-oceans-united-nations.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. "Ecosystems are changing, food webs are changing, fish stocks are changing, and this turmoil is affecting humans."</p><p>The IPCC's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate includes contributions from more than 100 scientists from 36 different countries. It highlights the bleak state of the most remote parts of the world, where rapid thawing of ice sheets and glaciers is changing the landscape of the polar regions and will affect people and animals all around the globe for decades.</p><p>This report is unique because for the first time ever, the IPCC has produced an in-depth report examining the furthest corners of the earth — from the highest mountains in remote polar regions to the deepest oceans," said Ko Barrett, vice chair of the IPCC, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/25/world/un-ipcc-report-oceans-and-ice-climate-change/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported. "We've found that even and especially in these places, human-caused <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> is evident."</p><p>Half of the world's largest cities and nearly 2 billion people around the world live on the coasts. If global heating is restricted to just 2 degrees Celsius, scientists still predict $7 trillion in damage every year and millions of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugees" target="_self">migrants</a>, according to a new <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/365/6459/eaaw6974" target="_blank">study</a> published last week, as <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/extreme-sea-level-events-will-hit-once-a-year-by-2050" target="_blank">The Guardian</a> reported.</p>
<p>"The future for low-lying coastal communities looks extremely bleak," said Jonathan Bamber at Bristol University in the UK, who is not one of the report's authors, to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/sep/25/extreme-sea-level-events-will-hit-once-a-year-by-2050" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>. "But the consequences will be felt by all of us. There is plenty to be concerned about for the future of humanity and social order from the headlines in this report."</p><p>The report found that of the major ice sheets, <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/greenland" target="_self">Greenland</a> is melting the fastest. When it melts completely, it can add 17-23 feet to sea levels, according to a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2019/study-predicts-more-long-term-sea-level-rise-from-greenland-ice" target="_blank">NASA study</a> published earlier this year. The report found that Greenland has averaged an annual ice loss of 275 gigatons from 2006 to 2015. The Anatarctic ice sheet also saw its ice loss mass triple from 2007 to 2016 compared to the previous decade, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/25/world/un-ipcc-report-oceans-and-ice-climate-change/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p><p>The IPCC scientists say that changes they see in parts of <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/antarctica" target="_self">Antarctica</a> could be the first signs the ice sheet there has reached a point of no return, but they warn that more research is needed.</p><p>"If this is true, then there is a chance of a multi-meter sea level rise within the next two to three centuries," said Regine Hock, a professor at the University of Alaska Fairbanks and a coordinating lead author on chapter two of this IPCC report, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/25/world/un-ipcc-report-oceans-and-ice-climate-change/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported. "That is very substantial."</p><p>The IPCC report does have suggestions that leaders should take to slow ocean warming and sea level rise. Not surprisingly, the scientists called on world leaders to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions from burning <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/fossil-fuels" target="_self">fossil fuels</a>, which is the main culprit in the climate crisis. The scientists said the global economy must shift dramatically to reduce emissions, as <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/25/755859707/earths-oceans-are-getting-hotter-and-higher-and-it-s-accelerating" target="_blank">NPR</a> reported.</p><p>The report does say that if greenhouse gas emissions are curtailed immediately, some impacts of ocean acidification could be avoided, according to <a href="https://www.npr.org/2019/09/25/755859707/earths-oceans-are-getting-hotter-and-higher-and-it-s-accelerating" target="_blank">NPR</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">"We must invest in a massive effort to adapt to conditions that are now inevitable." <a href="https://t.co/mN6Djmw6kZ">https://t.co/mN6Djmw6kZ</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/climateprogress?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@climateprogress</a></p>— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch) <a href="https://twitter.com/EcoWatch/status/1173371059262885888?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 15, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
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Record 7 Million People Displaced by Extreme Weather Events in First Half of 2019
13 September 2019
Climate
People wade through flood waters in a rural neighborhood affected by Cyclone Idai on March 24. Andrew Renneisen / Getty Images
In another sign of the climate crisis, a record seven million people were displaced from their homes by extreme weather events during the first half of 2019, The New York Times reported Thursday.
<p>The number comes from the <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/" target="_blank">Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre</a> (IDMC), which has been using data from governments, UN humanitarian agencies and news accounts to publish annual reports since 2003. Their mid-year figures for 2019, <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/2019-mid-year-figures_for%20website%20upload.pdf" target="_blank">published Thursday</a>, marked the highest number of disaster displacements the organization has ever recorded by this point in the year. The number was nearly double the number displaced by conflict and violence during the same period this year, <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/extreme-weather-hurricane-florence-refugees-dorian-world-a9103216.html" target="_blank">The Independent pointed out</a>.</p>
<div id="1e0c4" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="XOMJ521576661470"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1172046408419069953" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Our latest figures reveal that there were about 10.8M new displacements worldwide between January and June 2019, 7M… https://t.co/nS4z2XsXG1</div> — IDMC (@IDMC)<a href="https://twitter.com/IDMC_Geneva/statuses/1172046408419069953">1568272613.0</a></blockquote></div><p>"In today's changing climate, mass displacement triggered by extreme weather events is becoming the norm," the report authors wrote.<br></p><p>The number was tallied tallied before <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/bahamas-hurricane-dorian-crisis-2640319105.html" target="_self">Hurricane Dorian struck the Bahamas</a>, and the organization predicted it could soar to 22 million by the end of the year, making 2019 one of the worst years for disaster-caused displacement on record. That's because the worst disasters usually occur between June and September, which is when most storms inundate the tropics, The New York Times explained.</p>
<div id="310df" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="JYT59K1576661470"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1172101481035685890" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Based on past trends and the fact that the majority of weather-related hazards occur in the latter half of the year… https://t.co/iStcfW5Ynj</div> — IDMC (@IDMC)<a href="https://twitter.com/IDMC_Geneva/statuses/1172101481035685890">1568285744.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The extreme weather events covered by the report included</p><ol><li><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/cyclone-fani-india-bangladesh-2636402554.html" target="_self">Cyclone Fani</a>, which displaced 3.4 million people in India and Bangladesh in May</li><li><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/cyclone-idai-mozambique-malawi-zimbabwe-2631993550.html" target="_self">Cyclone Idai</a>, which displaced 617,000 in Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Madagascar in March</li><li><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/flooding-in-iran-2634007118.html" target="_self">Spring flooding in Iran</a>, which displaced 500,000</li></ol><p>Cyclone Vayu also displaced 289,000 in India in June, while <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/flooding" target="_self">flooding</a> displaced 405,000 in the Philippines, 190,000 in Ethiopia and 75,000 in Bolivia. However, not all disaster displacements are equal. The 3.4 million displaced by Fani were evacuated ahead of time, an act that saved lives and showed that India and Bangladesh had learned from past disasters.</p>
<div id="34df1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1O0RH81576661470"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1172223350267006976" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">There were 7M new displacements associated with more than 950 disaster events in the first half of 2019.… https://t.co/lW9xfXZvza</div> — IDMC (@IDMC)<a href="https://twitter.com/IDMC_Geneva/statuses/1172223350267006976">1568314800.0</a></blockquote></div><p>The IDMC urged both individual countries and the international community to learn from the growing number of weather-related displacements.</p><p>"With the impact of climate change, in the future these types of hazards are expected to become more intense," IDMC Director Alexandra Bilak told The New York Times. "Countries that are affected repeatedly like the Bahamas need to prepare for similar, if not worsening, trends."</p><p>At the same time, the report urged the world leaders coming together this month for the UN Climate Action Summit in New York to take the figures into account.</p>"The international community cannot continue to ignore internally displaced people," Bilak said in a <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Millions%20of%20people%20forced%20from%20their%20homes%20due%20to%20conflict%20and%20disasters%20in%20first%20half%20of%202019.pdf" target="_blank">press release</a>. "We must support national governments in their efforts to protect and assist IDPs, build peace and invest in sustainable development and climate change adaptation. Only then will we be able to reduce the upheaval, trauma and impoverishment that many millions of people suffer each year, and reverse the trends laid out in this report."
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Bahamians in Humanitarian Crisis After Dorian Now Denied Ability to Live and Work in U.S.
12 September 2019
Climate
Hundreds of those displaced by Hurricane Dorian gather at a port that was turned into a distribution and evacuation center in Marsh Harbour, Bahamas on Sept. 7. Carolyn Van Houten / The Washington Post / Getty Images
The Trump administration will not grant temporary protected status to people evacuating the Bahamas after Hurricane Dorian, the White House announced Wednesday. On the same day, Bahamian authorities said that around 2,500 people are listed as missing after the strongest storm to ever hit the country.
<p>Temporary protected status would have allowed Bahamians displaced by the <a href="hurricanes" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hurricane</a> to live and work in the U.S. until it is safe for them to return home, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/trump-admin-will-deny-temporary-protected-status-bahamians-who-fled-n1052561?cid=sm_npd_ms_fb_ma&fbclid=IwAR0Nvq7j5Bn8bxPgWO99RQlayMJ0DS_VQK0LhqjA42qGOUc_YhnbLWPpH00" target="_blank">NBC News explained</a>. Currently, more than 300,000 people from 10 countries are living in the U.S. with this status, including evacuees from the 2010 Haitian earthquake. Bahamians can still travel to the U.S. with the right documents, but will not be able to work.</p>
<div id="308e7" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="W1BFVU1576661476"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171881132662677507" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">TPS: A form of humanitarian relief for people who face extreme hardship if forced to stay/return to countries devas… https://t.co/9bdBHqmhyS</div> — RAICES (@RAICES)<a href="https://twitter.com/RAICESTEXAS/statuses/1171881132662677507">1568233209.0</a></blockquote></div><p>"The Bahamians impacted by Hurricane Dorian are facing a humanitarian crisis, and the American government, international partners and private organizations continue to support them with aid and services. At this time, we do not plan to invoke Temporary Protected Status for those currently in the United States," a White House official said, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian-immigration-bahamas-idUSKCN1VW2OS?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d79b161145a570001545309&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1KkXxLeKr4veW7h0C52d2RzVQfR5_vAJJnZKA5RHrin9meawCdeWLUG1s" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>.</p><p>Acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan said Monday it would be "appropriate" to extend the status to Dorian evacuees, but President Donald Trump appeared to oppose the idea later, as <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/09/10/politics/bahamas-tps-protections/index.html" target="_blank">CNN reported</a>.</p><p>"I don't want to allow people that weren't supposed to be in the Bahamas to go to the United States, including some very bad people and some very bad gang members and some very, very bad drug dealers. So we are going to be very, very strong on that," Trump said.</p><p>The news <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/bahamas-residents-dorian-turned-away-2640285274.html" target="_self">also comes days after</a> Dorian evacuees were ordered off a ferry from Freeport in the Bahamas to Florida if they did not have visas. Bahamians are typically allowed to enter the U.S. with just a passport and clean criminal record, but the U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced Monday that Bahamians traveling by sea now need a visa, Reuters reported.</p><p>The administration's decisions raised concerns about how it would respond to current and future <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugee" target="_self">climate refugees</a>. <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather" target="_self">Extreme weather</a> events <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/un-extreme-weather-climate-change-2633131018.html" target="_self">displaced two million people in 2018</a>, and <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-migrants-2518914887.html" target="_self">between 150 and 300 million</a> are likely to be displaced by 2050.</p><p>"Stop saying the US doesn't have a climate policy. We do. It's monstrous," climate scientist Dr. Kate Marvel tweeted in response to Trump's remarks.</p>
<div id="55752" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="56Z5WU1576661476"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1171399265685577728" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Stop saying the US doesn’t have a climate policy. We do. It’s monstrous. https://t.co/J6G6NX6UKc</div> — Kate Marvel (@Kate Marvel)<a href="https://twitter.com/DrKateMarvel/statuses/1171399265685577728">1568118323.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Meanwhile, the Bahamas continue to grapple with Dorian's toll. The government announced that around 2,500 were still missing Wednesday, though that number may include people who evacuated to shelters, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-dorian-idUSKCN1VW2A7?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_content=5d79aca94b188d00011c2bd9&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR16rps2eVMoNHqALbKh7tRHSmxfi7rInRnYcJMnq3LJlVV5T5QaxTz8opg" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>.</p><p>Bahamian Prime Minister Hubert Minnis said the death toll was currently at 50, but the number missing meant it would likely not stay there.</p><p>"The number of deaths is expected to significantly increase," he said.</p><p>And for the survivors, these numbers are personal.</p><p>"My friends are missing, a few of my cousins are missing over there, five in total, they lived in Marsh Harbour," 38-year-old tour guide Clara Bain told Reuters. "Everyone on the islands are missing someone, it's really devastating."</p><p>So far, around 5,000 people have been evacuated from the Grand Bahama and Abacos Islands, the islands most devastated by the storm, while 6,000 to 7,000 remain, as <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-49666942" target="_blank">BBC News reported</a>.</p><p>Hundreds are living in temporary shelters in the capital of Nassau, and there are plans to build two tent cities near Marsh Harbour on Great Abaco Island. Around 90 percent of homes and buildings in the town were damaged or destroyed, Reuters reported.</p>
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A makeshift refugee camp about five or six months after the collapse of the Casitas Volcano (in background) in the wake of Hurricane Mitch. This photo was taken near Posoltega, Nicaragua, early April, 1999. Bob Ramsak / piran café / Flickr
Clouds of dust rose behind the wheels of the pickup truck as we hurtled over the back road in Palo Verde, El Salvador. When we got to the stone-paved part of the road, the driver slowed as the truck heaved up and down with the uneven terrain. Riding in the back bed of the truck, Ruben (not his real name) and I talked while we held on tight, sitting on sacks of dried beans that he was taking to market.
<p>"It doesn't come out right," he said, "it just doesn't pay anymore to work the land. I take out a loan for seed, and then I can't count on making it back to pay off my debt."</p><p>Ruben told me then, for the first time, that he planned to save up his money to migrate out of El Salvador. His story is playing out across Central America among many migrants and would-be migrants.</p><p>When I spoke with Ruben, it was 2017, nearly 20 years after I had first spent time in his community, a coffee cooperative in El Salvador's central highlands founded in the 1990s. Over those two decades, the cooperative's hopes and dreams of a sustainable livelihood producing coffee for a global market have been dashed.</p><p>Rising global temperatures, the spread of crop disease and <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/extreme-weather">extreme weather</a> events have made coffee harvests <a href="https://www.nri.org/publications/working-paper-series/4-coffee-and-climate-change/file" target="_blank">unreliable</a> in places like El Salvador. On top of that, <a href="https://asu.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/market-shocks-and-climate-variability-the-coffee-crisis-in-mexico" target="_blank">market prices</a> are unpredictable.</p><p>In the back of the pickup truck that day, we talked about gangs too. There was increasing criminal activity in the town nearby, and some young people in the town were being harassed and recruited. But this was a relatively new issue for the community, layered on top of the persistent problem of the ecological crisis.</p><p>As a cultural anthropologist who studies factors of displacement in El Salvador, I see how Ruben's situation is reflective of a much broader global phenomenon of people leaving their homes, directly or indirectly due to climate change and the degradation of their local ecosystem. And as environmental conditions are projected to get worse under current trends, this raises unresolved legal questions on the status and security of people like Ruben and his family.</p>
Land and Livelihood
<p>Migration from Central America has gotten a lot of <a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic/2017/12/07/rise-in-u-s-immigrants-from-el-salvador-guatemala-and-honduras-outpaces-growth-from-elsewhere/" target="_blank">attention</a> these days, including the famous migrant <a href="https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/root-migration-climate-change-caravan-central-america" target="_blank">caravans</a>. But much of it focuses on the way migrants from this region — especially El Salvador, Guatemala, Nicaragua and Honduras — are driven out by <a href="https://academic.oup.com/rsq/article/33/3/34/2797909" target="_blank">gang violence</a>, <a href="https://theglobalamericans.org/2019/04/the-cost-of-systemic-corruption-in-honduras-migration-north/" target="_blank">corruption</a> and <a href="https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/nicaragua" target="_blank">political upheaval</a>.</p><p>These factors are <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/publications/understanding-and-estimating-displacement-in-the-northern-triangle-of-central-america" target="_blank">important</a> and require a response from the <a href="https://www.unhcr.org/en-us/claims-from-central-america.html" target="_blank">international community</a>. But displacement <a href="https://insideclimatenews.org/news/08072019/climate-change-migration-honduras-drought-crop-failure-farming-deforestation-guatemala-trump" target="_blank">driven by climate change</a> is significant too.</p><p>The link between environmental instability and emigration from the region became apparent in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Earthquakes and hurricanes, especially <a href="http://hurricanescience.net/history/storms/1990s/mitch/" target="_blank">Hurricane Mitch</a> in 1998 and its aftermath, were ravaging parts of Honduras, Nicaragua and El Salvador.</p><p>Many people from El Salvador and Honduras lived in the U.S. at the time, and the Bush administration granted them <a href="https://cmsny.org/publications/jmhs-tps-elsalvador-honduras-haiti/" target="_blank">Temporary Protected Status</a>. In this way, the government of the United States recognized the inhumanity of sending people back to places struggling with ecological disaster.</p><p>In the years since those events, both rapid-onset and long-term environmental crises continue to <a href="http://www.internal-displacement.org/sites/default/files/publications/documents/20181213-slow-onset-intro.pdf" target="_blank">displace people</a> from their homes worldwide. Studies show that displacement often happens indirectly through the impact of climate change on <a href="https://www.nri.org/publications/working-paper-series/4-coffee-and-climate-change/file" target="_blank">agricultural livelihoods</a>, with some areas pressured more than others. But some are more dramatic: Both Honduras and Nicaragua are among the top 10 countries <a href="https://germanwatch.org/sites/germanwatch.org/files/Global%20Climate%20Risk%20Index%202019_2.pdf" target="_blank">most impacted</a> by extreme weather events between 1998 and 2017.</p><p>Since 2014, a serious drought has decimated crops in Central America's so-called <a href="http://www.fao.org/emergencies/crisis/dry-corridor/en/" target="_blank">dry corridor</a> along the Pacific Coast. By impacting smallholder farmers in <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-elsalvador-drought/salvadoran-farmers-lament-brutal-drought-hope-for-recovery-idUSKBN1KG2RE" target="_blank">El Salvador</a>, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/central-america-drying-farmers-face-choice-pray-rain-or-leave-n1027346" target="_blank">Guatemala and Honduras</a>, this drought helps to drive <a href="https://econpapers.repec.org/article/sprclimat/v_3a140_3ay_3a2017_3ai_3a3_3ad_3a10.1007_5fs10584-016-1863-2.htm" target="_blank">higher levels</a> of migration from the region.</p><p>Coffee production, a critical support for these countries' economies, is especially vulnerable and sensitive to weather variations. A recent <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/coffee-rust-battle-intensifies/" target="_blank">outbreak of coffee leaf rust</a> in the region was likely <a href="https://2012-2017.usaid.gov/news-information/press-releases/may-19-2014-usaid-texas-am-invest-5-million-combat-coffee-rust-crisis" target="_blank">exacerbated</a> by climate change.</p><p>The <a href="https://time.com/5346110/guatemala-coffee-escape-migration/" target="_blank">fallout</a> from that plague combines with the recent <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-centralamerica-immigration-coffee/coffee-slump-reaps-bitter-harvest-for-central-american-migrants-idUSKCN1TS2QB" target="_blank">collapse</a> in global coffee prices to spur desperate farmers to give up.</p>Compounding Factor
<p><br>These trends have led experts at the World Bank to claim that around <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/983921522304806221/pdf/124724-BRI-PUBLIC-NEWSERIES-Groundswell-note-PN3.pdf" target="_blank">2 million people</a> are likely to be <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-refugee" target="_self">displaced</a> from Central America by the year 2050 due to factors related to climate change. Of course, it's hard to tease out the "push factor" of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change" target="_self">climate change</a> from all of the other reasons that people need to leave. And unfortunately, these phenomena interact and tend to exacerbate each other.</p><p>Scholars are working hard to assess the scale of the problem and study ways people can <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0088463" target="_blank">adapt</a>. But the problem is challenging. The number of displaced could be even higher — up to almost <a href="http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/983921522304806221/pdf/124724-BRI-PUBLIC-NEWSERIES-Groundswell-note-PN3.pdf" target="_blank">4 million</a> — if regional development does not shift to more climate-friendly and <a href="https://ccafs.cgiar.org/news/central-americas-climate-smart-agriculture-strategy-contains-key-recommendations-ccafs-future#.XWUp8pNKgWo" target="_blank">inclusive models</a> of agriculture.</p><p>People who emigrate from Central America may not always fully realize the role climate change plays in their movement, or think of it as the final trigger given all the other reasons they have to flee. But they know that the crops fail too often, and it's harder to get clean water than it used to be.</p>Seeking a Protected Status
<p>Ruben recently contacted me to ask for a reference to a good immigration lawyer. He and his daughter are now in the United States and have an upcoming hearing to determine their status.</p><p>Just as he predicted a few years ago, Ruben couldn't make a living in El Salvador. But he may find it hard to live in the U.S. too, given the mismatch between refugee law and current factors causing displacement.</p><p>For several years now, scholars and legal advocates have been asking <a href="https://www.fmreview.org/peopletrafficking/romer" target="_blank">how to respond</a> to people displaced by environmental conditions. Do <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/328261364_Possible_Framework_for_Climate_Change_IDP's_Disaster_and_Development_Induced_Displacement_and_Resettlement_Models_and_their_Integration" target="_blank">existing models</a> of humanitarian response and resettlement work for this new population? Could such persons be recognized as in need of <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1467-9930.2008.00290.x" target="_blank">protection under international law</a>, similar to political refugees?</p><p>Among the most complicated political questions is who should step up to deal with the harms of climate change, considering that wealthier countries pollute more but are often shielded from the worst effects. How can <a href="https://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?collection=journals&handle=hein.journals/nzjel20&id=112&men_tab=srchresults" target="_blank">responsibility be assigned</a>, and more importantly, what is to be done?</p><p>In the absence of coordinated action on the part of the global community to mitigate ecological instability and recognize the plight of displaced people, there's a risk of what some have called "<a href="https://news.un.org/en/story/2019/06/1041261" target="_blank">climate apartheid</a>." In this scenario — climate change combined with closed borders and few migration pathways — millions of people would be forced to choose between increasingly insecure livelihoods and the perils of unauthorized migration.<em> </em></p><p><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/miranda-cady-hallett-343720" target="_blank">Miranda Cady Hallett</a> is an Associate Professor of Anthropology and Human Rights Center Research Fellow at University of Dayton. </em></p><p><em>Reposted with permission from our media associate </em><u><em><a href="https://theconversation.com/how-climate-change-is-driving-emigration-from-central-america-121525" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em></u></p>From Your Site Articles
- Climate Change Is Already Driving Mass Migration Around the Globe ›
- The Climate Implications of the Migrant Caravan - EcoWatch ›
- Why the Migrant Caravan Story Is a Climate Change Story - EcoWatch ›
- Tropical Storm Amanda Kills 14 in El Salvador, Forces 4,200 to Evacuate - EcoWatch ›
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