Amazon river dolphins are classified as endangered by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Sylvain CORDIER / Gamma-Rapho / Getty Images
By Peter Yeung
A pair of pink Amazon river dolphins emerges for just a moment, arcing above the chocolate brown waters inside the Mamirauá Institute for Sustainable Development, a research facility at the tropical heart of the Brazilian Amazon. Powerful jets of water spray out of their blowholes as these freshwater mammals take in air before submerging.
<p>Moments later the duo reappear on the other side of the Japurá River, playfully dovetailing, and skirting the edge of the <em>várzea</em> rainforest — a seasonal floodplain where, in this part of Amazonia, river levels can rise and fall by up to 12 meters (39 feet) a year, at times opening up vast swathes of rainforest to these graceful swimmers.</p><p>"They are very special creatures," says Natanael dos Santos, a guide working at the Mamirauá Institute. "They are extremely intelligent and can display a complex set of behaviors, even like humans." These skilled, sharp-toothed hunters, often reaching more than eight feet in length, are well adapted to shifting river levels. During highwater periods they penetrate deep into the rainforest using echolocation to search murky pools amid submerged tree roots for prey including dozens of fish species, turtles and freshwater crabs.</p><p>The Amazon river dolphin (<em>Inia geoffrensis</em>) or boto, already <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/10831/50358152" target="_blank">classified as "endangered"</a> since 2018 by the IUCN, the International Union for Conservation of Nature, is now coming under even more serious threat across Brazil and Latin America. An estimated population in the <a href="https://www.worldwildlife.org/species/amazon-river-dolphin" target="_blank">low tens of thousands</a> is thought to exist in the wild, though counting the animals accurately in the Amazon's murky streams is challenging. Like other river dolphins, the boto communicates with variable whistle tones.</p><p>Occupying the Amazon and Orinoco river basins, which cut across the northern half of the South American continent, these freshwater mammals were historically abundant, and are protected today by Brazilian law; it is illegal to kill them. But for years, poachers have <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/261359911_Insights_on_the_use_of_dolphins_boto_Inia_geoffrensis_and_tucuxi_Sotalia_fluviatilis_for_bait_in_the_piracatinga_Calophysus_macropterus_fishery_in_the_Western_Brazilian_Amazon" target="_blank">targeted the dolphins</a>, using their fatty blubber as bait to catch a carnivorous catfish called <em>piracatinga</em>, which is drawn to the scent of rotting flesh.</p>
<p>In January 2015, under the government of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, that chronic criminal behavior led to the introduction of a <a href="https://infoamazonia.org/pt/2015/03/amazon-fishermen-want-to-reduce-time-of-moratorium-on-piracatinga-fish/#!/story=post-12510&loc=-4.389559200000014,-64.55674760000001,7" target="_blank">five-year moratorium</a> on catching <em>piracatinga</em> in order to better protect the dolphins.</p><p>But that moratorium ended earlier this year and has yet to be renewed by the Jair Bolsonaro administration, which is undermining many other of Brazil's environmental laws. Experts warn that the failure to extend it could lead to the extinction of the largest freshwater dolphin in the world — a fate that befell <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/aug/08/endangeredspecies.conservation" target="_blank">China's Yangtze river dolphin (</a><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/aug/08/endangeredspecies.conservation" target="_blank"><em>Lipotes vexillifer</em></a><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/aug/08/endangeredspecies.conservation" target="_blank"><em>)</em></a> in 2007, following years of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation.</p><p>"I believe [the lack of a moratorium] could make them extinct," warns Dr. Vera da Silva, a researcher for INPA, the Amazon research institute, who has been studying Amazonia's dolphins for more than 30 years. "Not all the objectives of the moratorium were fulfilled, therefore the moratorium must be extended," she explained.</p><p>Research by da Silva, <a href="https://academic.oup.com/biolinnean/article-abstract/123/3/666/4888610" target="_blank">published in 2017</a>, found that a female dolphin's pregnancy typically lasts 13 months. After that, the mother feeds a calf underwater for two years. Due to that long gestation and nursing period, females only reproduce every three to five years.</p><p>"They are a very slow reproductive species," da Silva notes. "If the removal is higher [than the reproduction and rearing rate] the species does not have the capacity to replace itself."</p><p>Separate <a href="https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0191304" target="_blank">findings</a> by da Silva published in 2018 revealed that the Amazon river dolphin population in Brazil is halving every decade.</p>
<p>Prosecutors in Amazonas state, where the Mamirauá Institute is based, originally asked for the moratorium which started in 2015, warning that as many as 2,500 dolphins were being killed illegally each year for bait.</p><p>Da Silva reports that in November 2019 she met with officials from the Secretariat of Production of the State of Amazonas (SEPROR), to discuss the extension of the moratorium in Amazonas. But nothing has happened since, and the peak fishing season is due to begin in July.</p><p>"There is a huge amount of ignorance," she warns. "We need better information on fishing practices. There aren't strong enough laws to make fishermen report what they catch."</p><p>Marcelo Oliveira, a conservation specialist at World Wildlife Fund Brazil (WWF), agrees with that analysis. "Fishing is a threat but we don't have enough data," he says. "If we don't know where the river dolphins are, we can't say how bad [the threat] is. But it's expensive to do expeditions to monitor population trends."</p><p>WWF has been innovating — utilizing drones to accomplish the difficult job of making improved population estimates, flying 2.5 kilometer strips of river to record footage. "It's much cheaper and more efficient," than doing boat observations, he says. The NGO is currently partnering with British universities to analyze the drone findings using artificial intelligence.</p><p><span></span>But even with better data recording practices and an improved data set, Oliveira says that the river dolphins are still at great risk from a broad range of threats. "Bycatch sees so many dolphins caught in fishing nets, gold mining in the region has led to mercury poisoning in the water, and the construction of hydroelectric dams has reduced their habitat and genetic pool," he explains.</p>
<p>Oliveira believes that for now the focus of dolphin conservation should be on improved community engagement across the Amazon basin, with strong outreach to fishermen, in a region whose burgeoning population has now topped 34 million.</p><p>"Extending the moratorium could be a way to protect the dolphins, alternative baits could be a way, but we need to have a balance between development and biodiversity conservation," he says. "It's not a fight between the two. If communities are involved in conservation, the dolphins will be safer."</p><p>Fernando Trujillo, scientific director of the <a href="https://omacha.org/" target="_blank">Fundacion Omacha</a>, a Colombia-based environmental NGO specializing in protecting river dolphins set up in 1993, says that conservation must also be addressed on an international level.</p><p>"The end of [Brazil's] moratorium will send out the message that fishing is okay — even in other countries across Latin America," he says. "We need to work together with all the countries in terms of policy, agreeing on the same criteria and same legislation, especially when it comes to monitoring the borders."</p><p>Trujillo, who is also co-chair of the International Whaling Commission's small cetaceans committee, is calling for the Brazil moratorium to be extended another five years. "For so many reasons, it's a species we need to conserve and save," he says. "Alive dolphins can produce more money than dead ones for local communities through ecotourism."</p>
<p>Indigenous beliefs hold that the river dolphin — which transforms from grey to pink as it ages — is a magical creature. Males and females are both said to have the ability to morph at will into either a handsome man, or beautiful woman respectively, in order to seduce villagers in the dark of night. But scientists see the mammals as top predators of the Amazon aquatic ecosystem — considering them the jaguars of the rivers.</p><p>A spokesperson for the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply said it had not yet extended the moratorium because "it is necessary to evaluate its effects on the recovery of populations of porpoises and caimans in order to verify the effectiveness of this fisheries management measure." When asked by Mongabay to comment, the ministry did not provide a timeframe for this evaluation period.</p><p>There is another myth about the Amazon river dolphin. It is said that to kill one is bad luck. Not knowing what negative aquatic impacts might radiate from the extinction of this top predator, authorities may want to heed this legend as they try to decide whether or not to renew Brazil's moratorium.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/06/amazon-river-dolphin-risks-extinction-if-brazil-moratorium-not-renewed/" target="_blank">Mongabay</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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The Sumatran rhino is one of 515 endangered species of land animals on the brink of extinction. Mark Carwardine / Photolibrary / Getty Images
The sixth mass extinction is here, and it's speeding up.
<p>A new study, <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/27/1922686117" target="_blank">published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Monday</a>, found that 515 land <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/animals/" target="_self">animals</a> are currently on the brink of extinction. That's slightly less than the at least 543 species that disappeared last century. However, these extremely <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/endangered-species" target="_self">endangered species</a> are expected to disappear in the next two decades, <a href="https://news.stanford.edu/press/view/34340" target="_blank">Stanford University explained in a press release</a>.</p><p>"When humanity exterminates populations and species of other creatures, it is sawing off the limb on which it is sitting, destroying working parts of our own life-support system," study coauthor and Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich said in the press release. "The <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation" target="_self">conservation</a> of endangered species should be elevated to a national and global emergency for governments and institutions, equal to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate</a> disruption to which it is linked."</p>
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8768fc2a38d4601fb0f3f9fbfae1718c"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/vES3YlXcrrc?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span>
<p>Ehrlich helped to write a 2015 study confirming that a sixth mass extinction had begun, and he now says the extinction rate is likely higher than previously thought. Species are going extinct at rates hundreds or thousands of times faster than the "background" rate for the last tens of millions of years, and are being killed off by one overriding factor: us. Several specific human actions are behind these losses, including habitat loss, hunting, the introduction of invasive species, pollution, the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wildlife" target="_self">wildlife</a> trade and the climate crisis.</p><p>"The massive losses that we are experiencing are being caused, directly or indirectly, by the activities of <em>Homo sapiens,</em>" the study authors wrote.</p>
<p>To draw their conclusions, the researchers looked at data on 29,400 land vertebrate species compiled by the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/" target="_blank">IUCN Red List of Threatened Species</a> and <a href="https://www.birdlife.org/" target="_blank">BirdLife International</a>, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/01/sixth-mass-extinction-of-wildlife-accelerating-scientists-warn?CMP=twt_a-environment_b-gdneco" target="_blank">The Guardian explained</a>. Of those species, 515 had populations of fewer than 1,000, and about half of the 515 were down to less than 250 individuals.</p><p>Most of the at-risk species live in the tropics or subtropics. They include the Sumatran rhino, the Clarión wren, the Española giant tortoise and the harlequin frog.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzM2NjEyOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2NDI1NjI1MX0.vOWjVGT3J2Z87tuSduwZsK__ppcKPanvt4uEO6JEgJs/img.jpg?width=980" id="f97d3" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0d1e4850694f3b468f7ee20744b33763" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Terrestrial vertebrates on the brink (i.e., with 1,000 or fewer individuals) include species such as (A) Sumatran rhino (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis; image credit: Rhett A. Butler [photographer]), (B) Clarion island wren (Troglodytes tanneri; image credit: Claudio Contreras Koob [photographer]), (C) Española Giant Tortoise (Chelonoidis hoodensis; image credit: G.C.), and (D) Harlequin frog (Atelopus varius; the population size of the species is unknown but it is estimated at less than 1,000; image credit: G.C.).
<p>Because ecosystems are so interconnected, the disappearance of any of these at-risk species would put other species at risk. For example, when sea otters were overhunted in the Bering Sea, the population of sea urchins bloomed, devouring kelp forests and driving the Steller's sea cow to extinction. Eighty-four percent of species with populations under 5,000 live in the same regions as species with populations under 1,000, making such a domino effect more likely.</p><p>"Extinction breeds extinction," the researchers wrote.</p>
<p>The eradication of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/biodiversity" target="_self">biodiversity</a> is also a major threat to human civilization. The most timely example is the spread of the new <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a>, which originated in bats and is believed to have passed to humans through another animal at a wildlife market, the press release explained.</p><p>"Based on our research and what we're seeing, the extinction crisis is so bad that whatever we do in the next 10 to 50 years is what will define the future of humanity," study coauthor professor Gerardo Ceballos of the National University of Mexico in Mexico City told <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52881831" target="_blank">BBC News</a>.</p><p>The researchers called for a ban on the international wildlife trade, according to Stanford. They have also started an initiative called <a href="https://stopextinctions.org/" target="_blank">Stop Extinction</a> to raise awareness of the biodiversity crisis.</p><p>"In view of the current extinction crisis and the lack of widespread actions to halt it, it is very important that scientists should metaphorically take to the streets," they wrote.</p>
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One in four species of bee is at risk of extinction in North America. Buntysmum / Needpix
By Leslie Brooks
More than 75 percent of the world's food crops rely on pollinators, according to the United Nations Environment Program. Through their pollination, bees not only promote biodiversity, but also secure our food supply.
But one in four species of bee is at risk of extinction in North America, according to the United Nations Environment Program. And the International Union for the Conservation of Nature has recorded declines in bee populations in Europe, South America, and Asia.
<p>A combination of factors are contributing to the decline of bees, including habitat loss and degradation, pesticide use, the invasive parasitic <em>Varroa destructor</em> mite, and other <a href="https://ento.psu.edu/pollinators/resources-and-outreach/buzzkills-abiotic-and-biotic-stressors-of-pollinators" target="_blank">diseases</a>. The effects of climate change are compounding these stressors on bee populations worldwide.</p><p>But people around the world are working to create an environment that helps bees thrive. In honor of National Honey Month, Food Tank is highlighting 15 organizations and initiatives working to preserve the livelihood of bees, the ecosystem, and the global food supply.</p>
<p>1. Bees for Development, United Kingdom</p><p><a href="http://www.beesfordevelopment.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Bees for Development</a> is an international organization that utilizes beekeeping as a tool to alleviate poverty and retain biodiversity around the world. They work in over 50 countries within local communities, and implement sustainable beekeeping techniques that use only local bees and local resources. They have an open-access information portal that provides information on bees and beekeeping worldwide. Bees for Development also provides advice and guidance to the World Bank, the United Nations, and other international organizations. </p><p>2. BEES for the World, Germany</p><p><a href="http://beesfortheworld.de/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">BEES for the World</a> is dedicated to designing sustainable supply chains for high quality organic-certified bee products all over the world. Their commitment is to Biodiversity, Education, Empowerment, and Sustainability (BEES). They work primarily within African countries to support forest beekeeping. By empowering local communities in the production of high-quality beeswax and connecting them to markets, the group protects local ecosystems while fostering the creation of jobs. </p><p>3. Elephant and Bees Project, Kenya</p><p>What began as a strategic plan to save the elephants, grew into a conservation project for elephants and bees alike. The <a href="https://elephantsandbees.com/" target="_blank">Elephant and Bees Project</a> uses beehive fences – a natural deterrent of elephants – to keep elephants off of farmland, reducing crop damage. This not only increases protected habitats for bees, but also helps educate farmers on the relationship between bees and crop health. The project supports increased bee populations and works in multiple countries throughout Africa.</p>
<p>4. Federation of Nepal Beekeepers, Nepal</p><p>The <a href="http://www.fnbk.org.np/index.php" target="_blank">Federation of Nepal Beekeepers</a> was established in 1999 to support and empower local beekeepers throughout Nepal. This umbrella organization advocates for national policies that benefit beekeepers, their bees, and their livelihoods. The organization also works to increase the capacity of beekeepers by training and educating farmers on the importance of bees in pollination and pasture management. </p><p>5. Honeybee Research Institute, Pakistan</p><p>The <a href="http://www.parc.gov.pk/index.php/en/hb" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Honeybee Research Institute</a> promotes beekeeping in Pakistan with the honeybee <em>Apis </em><em>mellifera</em>. While <em>Apis mellifera</em> honey bees were initially imported from Australia, the species has thrived in Pakistan since the late 1970s. With over 400,000 colonies present today, the bees contribute to increased honey production, income-production for rural populations, and increasing biodiversity. The Institute provides beekeeping training courses, promotes beekeeping for income generation, and has on-going research projects. </p><p>6. Pesticide Action Network Europe, Belgium</p><p>Founded in 1987, the <a href="https://www.pan-europe.info/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Pesticide Action Network</a> (PAN Europe) is a network of consumer, public health, and environmental organizations, trades unions, women's groups, and farmer associations from across Europe. As advocates for a pesticide-free Europe, PAN Europe works closely with government representatives to try to reduce the use of hazardous pesticides. Through their European Citizens' Initiative, "Save Bees and Farmers", they are collecting signatures and calling on the European Commission to phase out synthetic pesticides in agriculture by 2035. </p>
<p>7. Pollinator Partnership Canada, Canada</p><p>As a leader in pollinator research and habitat improvement for over 20 years, <a href="https://pollinatorpartnership.ca/en/" target="_blank">Pollinator Partnership Canada</a> provides and supports various projects that help protect pollinators. They offer a Pollinator Steward Certification program for land managers, communities, and organizations. Pollinator Partnership also successfully advocated for Pollinator Week- inaugurally designated June 22-28, 2020 – in Canada to raise awareness about the importance of pollinators.</p><p>8. Purple Hive Project, Australia</p><p>Australia is the only continent not yet affected by the <em>Varroa destructor</em> mite, but researchers fear that Australian honey bees may soon be at risk. The <a href="https://purplehiveproject.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Purple Hive Project</a> is on a mission to prevent this mite – which decimates colonies and spreads honey bee viruses – from impacting honey bees in Australia. The Purple Hive uses Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) technology to detect the mite in real-time so that its spread can be prevented. Their long-term goal is to create a network of hives in high-risk locations across Australia. </p><p>9. Slovenian Beekeepers Association, Slovenia</p><p>The <a href="http://www.czs.si/wp/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Slovenian Beekeepers Association</a>, originally founded in the late 1800s, offers key beekeeping knowledge and support within the country. The Association advocates and raises awareness on behalf of bees and their importance in the environment, provides beekeeping camps and workshops, and publishes a monthly beekeeping magazine. They are also registered as a research institution, where they develop safe bee products and research ways to protect the Carniolan bee, a type of honey bee indigenous to Slovenia. </p>
<p>10. The Bee Girl Organization, United States</p><p>Sarah "Bee Girl" Red-Laird founded <a href="https://www.beegirl.org/" target="_blank">The Bee Girl Organization</a> to inspire communities to conserve bees, flowers, and food. The Bee Girl team engages communities across the globe, providing educational classes and resources for regenerative beekeeping. In 2019, Bee Girl partnered with a local vineyard to initiate a Bee Friendly Vineyards pilot program. They planted 1800 square feet of sunflowers on a plot of unused land to attract bees to the area. This year, they are partnering with an additional vineyard to begin an in-depth research and habitat project. </p><p>11. The Honeybee Conservancy, United States</p><p><a href="https://thehoneybeeconservancy.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Honeybee Conservancy</a> is dedicated to protecting bees and securing food justice through education, research, habitat creation, and advocacy. Their flagship program, Sponsor-A-Hive, places native bee homes within urban gardens, schools, and organizations that grow produce to bolster local ecosystems. Last year they unveiled an eight-foot-tall rooftop beehive on the Empire State Building, which will house over 70,000 honey bees. Their goal is to place one million bees to support communities of need across the U.S..</p><p>12. Under the Mango Tree, India</p><p><a href="https://www.utmt.in/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Under the Mango Tree</a> was founded with the mission to improve the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in rural India. The organization teaches farmers how to maintain bee boxes on their farms and harvest honey, and connects them to markets to sell their honey. They specifically focus on the indigenous bee, <em>Apis cerana indica</em>, to increase pollination and crop yields. In addition, the organization has trained upwards of 1,000 women to be beekeepers.</p>
<p>13. United Nations Development Program, International</p><p>To help achieve the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals, the <a href="https://bees.undp.org/" target="_blank">United Nations Development Program</a> (UNDP) partners with local communities in multiple countries to work with smallholder beekeepers and farmers around the world. Through training and resources they help beekeepers earn a decent living and support the health of their communities, while providing a healthy habitat for bees. With help from the UNDP, beekeepers can more easily access markets and improve their livelihoods.</p><p>14. Wheen Bee Foundation, Australia</p><p>Gretchen Wheen, a pioneer in bee research and one of Australia's most well known beekeepers, donated her estate to establish the <a href="https://www.wheenbeefoundation.org.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Wheen Bee Foundation</a> upon her passing in 2012. The Foundation promotes awareness of the importance of bees for food security and ecosystem health. It funds research and development projects that seek to improve the health of the local bee population. They are currently working in partnership with other organizations to save the Green Carpenter Bee on Kangaroo Island, as the island recovers from the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-07/quarter-of-kangaroo-islands-ligurian-beehives-lost/11845372" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">destructive fires</a> earlier this year. </p><p>15. World Bee Project, England</p><p>Using cloud computing technology, the <a href="http://worldbeeproject.org/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">World Bee Project</a> created the world's first globally coordinated honeybee hive monitoring initiative. This Network will provide data that can inform international actions to improve pollinator habitats, food security, and nutrition. With this project, developers hope to deliver findings to smallholder farmers around the world.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://foodtank.com/news/2020/09/fifteen-organizations-and-initiatives-helping-to-save-the-bees/" target="_blank">Food Tank.</a></em></p>From Your Site Articles
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New Online Platform Shows How to Protect Biodiversity and Avoid Ecological Collapse
08 September
Climate
A new online platform shows where exactly conservation action should be prioritized. ANDREYGUDKOV / Getty Images
By Morgan Erickson-Davis
As the world heads towards 2021 with COVID-19 still raging overhead, it might be easy to forget about the other global crises. But a new app, debuted today, aims to light the way to a brighter future, showing how we can stop global warming, halt extinctions and prevent pandemics – all in one fell swoop.
<p><a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Research shows</a> that global warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius will likely result in the collapse of ecosystems around the world. Scientists say that not only would this result in mass extinctions, but it would also have dire consequences for humans in terms of food and water security, community resilience against environmental disasters, public health and other societal needs that are intrinsically tied to a healthy environment.</p><p>But, according to the numbers, we're running out of time to do this. Studies indicate that in order to achieve a good likelihood of staying below the 1.5-degree threshold, the majority of the world's greenhouse gas emissions need to be avoided. Deforestation is one of the biggest emitters of excess CO2 and reducing it is one of the key components to international strategies aimed at mitigating global warming. However, researchers say that if deforestation and other industry emissions continue at current rates, we'll be on track to reach the 1.5-degree threshold by 2030.</p><p>In other words, we have less than 10 years to turn things around.</p><p>To this end, a team a team of researchers led by Eric Dinerstein, a wildlife scientist and director at the conservation organization RESOLVE, has created the first comprehensive estimate of the total land area that needs to be protected in order to fix both biodiversity loss and climate change. Called the "Global Safety Net," the effort combines data on protected areas, intact landscapes, biodiversity importance, and carbon absorption and storage, to show where exactly conservation action should be prioritized. It is visualized on an <a href="https://www.globalsafetynet.app/" target="_blank">open-access online platform</a>.</p>
‘Conserve at Least Half and in the Right Places’
<p>The Global Safety Net combines six primary data layers: existing protected areas, habitats where rare species live, areas of high biodiversity, landscapes inhabited by large mammals, large areas of intact wilderness and natural landscapes that can absorb and store the most carbon.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzc5NTczMC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxMzE4OTI5Mn0.h_clcf6OzZN712SwPBUKFvsV9s7FiGsUDUd4uWhukp4/img.png?width=980" id="d9e69" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f489045cac457a4011270a29e89c672f" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Areas of the terrestrial realm where increased conservation action is needed to protect biodiversity and store carbon. Numbers in parentheses show the percentage of total land area of Earth contributed by each set of layers. Unprotected habitats drawn from the 11 biodiversity data layers underpinning the Global Safety Net augment the current 15.1% protected with an additional 30.6% required to safeguard biodiversity. Additional CSAs add a further 4.7% of the terrestrial realm. Also shown are the wildlife and climate corridors to connect intact habitats (yellow lines). Data are available for interactive viewing at www.globalsafetynet.app. Dinerstein et al., 2020.
<p>In a study accompanying the release of the platform published today in <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/36/eabb2824" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer"><em>Science Advances</em></a>, the researchers describe what we need to do in order to stave off the worst effects of global warming and extinction. Overall, they found that in addition to the 15.1% of the world's land that is already protected, 35.3% will need to be added to fold over the next 10 years. This means that ultimately 50% of the planet's land area will need to be protected from further degradation to keep it under the 1.5-degree threshold and stave off ecological collapse.</p><p>The researchers were surprised how well their numbers lined up with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-Earth" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">previous estimates</a> of how much of the planet needs to be set aside for nature.</p><p>"Without trying, the analysis landed on 50.4% of the terrestrial surface requiring protection," said study coauthor Karl Burkart, managing director of the NGO One Earth. "Of course conservation is much more nuanced now and strictly protected areas are just one type of land designation that can contribute towards this goal."</p><p>Zooming in, the study finds 30% of land area is of "particular importance for biological diversity." An additional 20% of land area is needed to maintain ecosystem intactness and provide additional carbon storage and absorption. The authors also note that restoration of degraded areas could help meet carbon sequestration and wildlife conservation goals.</p><p>Dinerstein and his colleagues write that the Global Safety Net can be used as a roadmap to achieving climate and biodiversity targets.</p><p>"Staying below the 1.5°C limit will require much of the world's remaining habitat—and a significant amount of restored habitat in forest biomes—be put under some form of conservation by 2030," the authors say. "Advances being championed under the two conventions responsible for biodiversity and climate— the Convention on Biological Diversity and the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change—must be accelerated if we are to protect the abundance and diversity of life on Earth and stabilize the climate.</p><p>"A holistic solution is emerging that will accelerate both efforts: conserve at least half and in the right places."</p><p>The researchers identified 50 different ecoregions – areas defined by their unique ecologies and geologies – and 20 countries that hold the lion's share of conservation potential.</p><p>Among them is the Sahelian Acacia Savanna, a vast grassland that stretches across the top of Africa from Senegal to Sudan, the <a href="https://rainforests.mongabay.com/new-guinea/" target="_blank">Central Range Papuan Montane Rainforests</a> shared between Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, <a href="https://rainforests.mongabay.com/sulawesi/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Indonesia's Sulawesi Montane Rainforests</a>, Madagascar Humid Forests, and Mindanao-Eastern Visayas Rainforests in the Philippines. These areas occupy the top five spots in terms of the amount land that could protected in future, together totaling some 183,000 square kilometers (70,658 square miles) of protection potential and nearly 2% of the planet's land area.</p><p>The app also <a href="https://www.globalsafetynet.app/rankings/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">ranks countries</a> on how much of their biological important land areas are under official protection, which is broken down into three lists based on the size of the country. For "large" countries, Nigeria scored the top spot in terms of protection level, Brazil is #15, the U.S. is #34, Indonesia is #47, and Somalia was ranked lowest at #70.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzc5NTg2OS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNjc2NTg1N30.3-DNDx178mq3RYVRgguTYZJqCNWc8giZNYoMom2S_2U/img.jpg?width=980" id="06d42" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5cd48628e90ca0835f1b8e3ddb2e9827" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Somalia has large areas inhabited by rare species – but very few protected areas. Global Safety Net
<p>It should be noted that these rankings do not take into consideration deforestation within protected areas. If so, countries like <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/05/takeover-of-nigerian-reserve-highlights-uphill-battle-to-save-forests/" target="_blank">Nigeria</a> and <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/08/brazilian-amazon-protected-areas-in-flames-as-land-grabbers-invade/" target="_blank">Brazil</a>, where protected areas are increasingly beset by illegal clearing, might not rank so high on the list. Still, the researchers say protected areas provide needed accountability and a metric with which to measure conservation effort.</p><p>"Protected Areas (or area-based targets) are certainly no guarantee of conservation outcome, as we can see with the fires burning in Brazil as we speak," Burkart told Mongabay via email. "But without them we are lost at sea."</p><p>Both Burkart and Dinerstein view area-based targets as the "North Star" of biodiversity preservation and climate protection, and say they are an important part of creating a framework for action that civil society can use to help motivate and mobilize conservation efforts.</p><p>"We've got to take conservation out of the ivory towers of academic institutions (or basements of government ministries)," Burkart said. "It is the public good we're talking about, so we need an open and transparent stocktaking of where we are right now, and what we need to immediately prioritize. Area-based targets are just the beginning, a 'blueprint' if you will of the cathedral we need to build."</p>Will It Happen in Time?
<p>If more than tripling the amount of land under official, effective protection in less than 10 years sounds daunting, you're not alone. But Dinerstein and his colleagues say it is possible.</p><p>One avenue they recommend is safeguarding Indigenous territories. The Global Safety Net shows important conservation areas often overlap with areas occupied by Indigenous communities or regarded as ancestral land, which previous research indicates contain around 80% of the planet's remaining biodiversity and contribute significantly to carbon storage. Putting land under the management of Indigenous and local communities has been shown to <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2014/07/true-stewards-new-report-says-local-communities-key-to-saving-forests-curbing-global-warming/" target="_blank">be an effective way</a> to protect it.</p><p>"Addressing indigenous land claims, upholding existing land tenure rights, and resourcing programs on indigenous-managed lands could help achieve biodiversity objectives on as much as one-third of the area required by the Global Safety Net," the researchers write in their study. "Simultaneously, this focus would positively address social justice and human rights concerns."</p><p>Protecting such a large amount of land will take a lot of money. But researchers say that the COVID-19 pandemic is showing just how quickly countries can allocate large amounts of resources if needed. And since <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02341-1" target="_blank">research shows</a> deforestation can increase the risk of outbreak of deadly diseases like Ebola and COVID-19, Dinerstein and his colleagues say there is added incentive for funding such efforts.</p><p>"The need for an ambitious global conservation agenda has taken on a new urgency in 2020 after the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus," they write in their study.</p><p>The researchers were surprised to find that only 2.3% of the planet's land area would needed to be further protected to safeguard the species most at risk of extinction. This, they say, could be accomplished within five years.</p><p>Overall, they say the investment spent on preserving these important areas of land would be offset by the trillions of dollars worth of benefits provided by a healthy environment.</p><p>"Literally billions of dollars are being spent trying to invent technologies to remove carbon from the atmosphere with very little to show for it. Meanwhile we can protect the spectacular diversity of life on this planet while simultaneously providing all the ecosystem services humanity needs by protecting and conserving the 50% of lands identified in the GSN," Burkart said. "Based on a new economic analysis, we estimate that the global safety net would cost about $200 [billion per year] to manage. This is a tiny investment for a massive return, as nature provides $33 trillion in ecosystem services every year."</p><p>For their part, Dinerstein, Burkart and their colleagues are continuing to improve the GSN, and are planning on releasing an updated version next year that will include more data layers and higher resolution. They are also developing technology to help monitor elephant populations in the hopes of reducing human-elephant conflict and prevent poaching, as well as a system that detects logging trucks before they get a chance to start cutting down trees.</p><p>"Protecting forests begins with early detection and then enforcement," Dinerstein said. "We think our ForestGuard AI is an important piece of this."</p><p>But the main thing, the researchers say, is that governments must act – and soon.</p><p>"Human societies are late in the game to rectify impending climate breakdown, massive biodiversity loss, and, now, prevent pandemics," they write. "The Global Safety Net, if erected promptly, offers a way for humanity to catch up and rebound."</p>From Your Site Articles
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A blue bee on a firebush in Palm Beach, Florida on Sept. 10, 2016. Bob Peterson / CC BY 2.0
Scientists have "rediscovered" a rare blue bee that they feared was extinct.
<p>Until this spring, the "ultra-rare" blue calamintha bee (<em>Osmia calaminthae</em>) had only been observed in four locations in central Florida, and it hadn't been seen at all since 2016. So when <a href="https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/" target="_blank">Florida Museum of Natural History</a> research team Chase Kimmel and Jaret Daniels set out to document the bee's population status and habits, they weren't sure what they would find.</p><p>"I was open to the possibility that we may not find the bee at all so that first moment when we spotted it in the field was really exciting," Kimmel, a postdoctoral researcher, said in a museum <a href="https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/science/floridas-rare-blue-calamintha-bee-rediscovered/" target="_blank">press release</a>.</p>
<div id="e4e3a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d3d0ff48bece951400e71a2b8a3c59fb"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1258421385090805766" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">#Florida’s rare blue calamintha bee was feared extinct until researchers in @jcdaniels lab rediscovered the species… https://t.co/BbdU6ZDrJq</div> — Florida Museum (@Florida Museum)<a href="https://twitter.com/FloridaMuseum/statuses/1258421385090805766">1588866013.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Kimmel first spotted the bee March 9, he told <a href="https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/05/16/rare-blue-calamintha-bees-spotted-lake-wales-ridge-florida/5207086002/" target="_blank">USA TODAY in an email</a>. Since then, he has spotted the elusive pollinator in three of its previous locations and six additiona locations, according to the museum.</p><p>The research could have important implications for the bee's chances of survival. Florida's State Wildlife Action Plan lists the bee as a species of greatest <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation" target="_self">conservation</a> need, and the study will help determine if it warrants <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/endangered-species-act" target="_self">Endangered Species Act</a> protections.</p><p>The bee is so vulnerable in part because it is thought to rely on a threatened plant called Ashe's calamint and live only in Florida's Lake Wales Ridge region, a hotspot of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/biodiversity" target="_self">biodiversity</a> that the museum calls "one of the nation's fastest-disappearing ecosystems."</p>
<p>The ridge hosts so much unique life because, when most of Florida was underwater, it was raised above the waves in high sand dunes that acted like islands, giving isolated ecosystems a chance to flourish. Now, these habitats are islands of pine scrub in a sea of orange groves.</p><p>"It's one thing to read about habitat loss and development and another to be driving for 30-40 minutes through miles of orange groves just to get to a really small conservation site," Kimmel said. "It puts into perspective how much habitat loss affects all the animals that live in this area."</p>
<p>The bee also exhibits unique behaviors. It gathers pollen by bobbing its head side to side to collect it on its facial hairs. The very first time he saw the bee, Kimmel got a chance to see this in action.</p><p>"We observed a shiny little blue bee grabbing the flower and rubbing its head on the top portion of the flower two or three times before moving on to another flower," <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2020/05/16/us/florida-blue-calamintha-bee-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">Kimmel told CNN</a>. "In reading about this unique behavior we were pretty shocked to see it."</p><p>Kimmel and Daniels' research is set to last two years and determine the bee's feeding and nesting habits. So far, the team has found another plant the bee will use if it can't find Ashe's calamint.</p>
<p>The research has been hampered somewhat by the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic, since travel restrictions mean Kimmel is in the field alone during the bee's flight season from mid-March to early May.</p><p>"It's a very time-limited flight. Now is when the bulk of that activity has to take place," Daniels, who is acting as Kimmel's adviser and is also the director of the museum's <a href="https://www.floridamuseum.ufl.edu/index.php/mcguire/home/" target="_blank">McGuire Center for Lepidoptera and Biodiversity</a>, said in the press release. "Chase is doing a fantastic job and we're getting a lot of great data, but if it wasn't for the COVID-19 virus we would have had more people in the field, so it has definitely scaled back what we're able to do."</p>
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A landmark study by Global FinPrint reveals sharks are absent on many of the world's coral reefs, indicating they are functionally extinct. Global FinPrint
By JoAnn Adkins
A landmark study by Global FinPrint reveals sharks are absent on many of the world's coral reefs, indicating they are functionally extinct — too rare to fulfill their normal role in the ecosystem.
<p>Of the 371 reefs surveyed in 58 countries, sharks were not observed on nearly 20 percent, indicating a widespread decline that has gone undocumented on this scale until now. The Global FinPrint team, led by researchers at Florida International University (FIU), also identified conservation measures that could lead to recovery of these iconic predators.</p><p>Essentially no sharks were detected on any of the reefs in the Dominican Republic, the French West Indies, Kenya, Vietnam, the Windward Dutch Antilles and Qatar. Among these, a total of only three sharks were observed during more than 800 survey hours, according to the study published today in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2519-y#https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2519-y" target="_blank"><em>Nature</em></a>.</p><p>"While Global FinPrint results exposed a tragic loss of sharks from many of the world's reefs, it also shows us signs of hope," said Jody Allen, co-founder and chair of the Paul G. Allen Family Foundation. "The data collected from the first-ever worldwide survey of sharks on coral reefs can guide meaningful, long-term conservation plans for protecting the reef sharks that remain."</p>
<p>This benchmark for the status of reef sharks around the world reveals an alarming global loss of these iconic species that are important food resources, tourism attractions, and top predators on coral reefs. Their loss is due in large part to overfishing of sharks, with the single largest contributor being destructive fishing practices, such as the use of longlines and gillnets.</p><p>"Although our study shows substantial negative human impacts on reef shark populations, it's clear the central problem exists in the intersection between high human population densities, destructive fishing practices, and poor governance," said <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/about/directory/profiles/chapman-demian.html" target="_blank">Demian Chapman</a>, Global FinPrint co-lead, associate professor in <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/biology/" target="_blank">FIU's Department of Biological Sciences</a> and researcher in the Institute of Environment. "We found that robust shark populations can exist alongside people when those people have the will, the means, and a plan to take conservation action."</p><p>The study revealed several countries where shark conservation is working and the specific actions that can work. The best performing nations compared to the average of their region included Australia, the Bahamas, the Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia, the Maldives and the United States. These nations reflect key attributes that were found to be associated with higher populations of sharks — being generally well-governed and either banning all shark fishing or having strong, science-based management limiting how many sharks can be caught.</p>
<p>"These nations are seeing more sharks in their waters because they have demonstrated good governance on this issue," said Aaron MacNeil, lead author of the Global FinPrint study and associate professor at Dalhousie University. "From restricting certain gear types and setting catch limits, to national-scale bans on catches and trade, we now have a clear picture of what can be done to limit catches of reef sharks throughout the tropics."</p><p>The FinPrint team is wrestling with the fact that conservation action on sharks alone can only go so far. Researchers are now looking at whether recovery of shark populations requires management of the wider ecosystem to ensure there are enough reef fish to feed these predators.</p><p>"Now that the survey is complete, we are also investigating how the loss of sharks can destabilize reef ecosystems," said <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/about/directory/profiles/heithaus-michael.html" target="_blank">Mike Heithaus</a>, Global FinPrint co-lead and dean of the <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/index.html" target="_blank">College of Arts, Sciences & Education</a> at Florida International University. "At a time when corals are struggling to survive in a changing climate, losing reef sharks could have dire long-term consequences for entire reef systems."</p>
<p>Launched in the summer of 2015, Global FinPrint's data were generated from baited remote underwater video stations (BRUVS) that consist of a video camera placed in front of a standard amount of bait – a "Chum Cam." Coral reef ecosystems were surveyed with BRUVS in four key geographic regions: The Indo-Pacific, Pacific, the Western Atlantic and the Western Indian Ocean.</p><p>Over the course of four years, the team captured and analyzed more than 15,000 hours of video from surveys of 371 reefs in 58 countries, states and territories around the world. The work was conducted by hundreds of scientists, researchers, and conservationists organized by a network of collaborators from Florida International University, the Australian Institute of Marine Science, Curtin University, Dalhousie University, and James Cook University.</p><p>For more information and a new global interactive data-visualized map of the Global FinPrint survey results, visit <a href="https://globalfinprint.org/" target="_blank">https://globalfinprint.org</a>.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2020/first-of-its-kind-global-survey-led-by-fiu-researchers-reveals-sharks-are-functionally-extinct-from-many-reefs" target="_blank">Florida International University</a>.</em><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/r/entryeditor/2646585350#/" target="_self"></a></p>
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The many manifestations of climate change — including heat waves, droughts, water stress, more intense storms, wildfires, mass extinction and warming oceans — all get progressively worse as the temperature rises. Jeff Ishee / Pexels
By Robert McLachlan
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.
If you have a question you'd like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz
Is humanity doomed? If in 2030 we have not reduced emissions in a way that means we stay under say 2℃ (I've frankly given up on 1.5℃), are we doomed then?
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<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/robert-mclachlan-421911" target="_blank"><em>Robert McLachlan</em></a><em> is a Professor in Applied Mathematics, Massey University.<br/>
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<em>Disclosure statement: </em><em><em><em>Robert McLachlan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em></em></em>
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<em><em><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-explained-are-we-doomed-if-we-dont-manage-to-curb-emissions-by-2030-143526" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em></em></em>
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<p>Humanity is not doomed, not now or even in a worst-case scenario in 2030. But avoiding doom — either the end or widespread collapse of civilization — is setting a pretty low bar. We can aim much higher than that without shying away from reality.</p><p>It's right to focus on global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the first instance. The many manifestations of climate change — including heat waves, droughts, water stress, more intense storms, wildfires, mass extinction and warming oceans — all get progressively worse as the temperature rises.</p><p>Climate scientist <a href="https://michaelmann.net/" target="_blank">Michael Mann</a> uses the metaphor of walking into an increasingly dense minefield.</p>
<div id="98101" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9c658bbc6292bd7eb49514c454053d13"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1078329950703357952" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">As I have been pointing out for some time, climate change isn't a cliff we go off at 1.5C or 2C. It's much more lik… https://t.co/tY8NoRq153</div> — Michael E. Mann (@Michael E. Mann)<a href="https://twitter.com/MichaelEMann/statuses/1078329950703357952">1545928869.0</a></blockquote></div>
Good Reasons Not to Give Up Just Yet
<p>The <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a> described the effects of a 1.5℃ increase in average temperatures in a <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/" target="_blank">special report</a> last year. They are also nicely summarized in an article about <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2865/a-degree-of-concern-why-global-temperatures-matter/" target="_blank">why global temperatures matter</a>, produced by NASA.</p><p>The global average temperature is currently about <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">1.2℃</a> higher than what it was at the time of the Industrial Revolution, some 250 years ago. We are already witnessing localized impacts, including the <a href="https://theconversation.com/we-just-spent-two-weeks-surveying-the-great-barrier-reef-what-we-saw-was-an-utter-tragedy-135197" target="_blank">widespread coral bleaching</a> on Australia's Great Barrier Reef.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUyMzU1My9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNzgxMjE4OX0.IJqJXZa1yVyysYGVhkKXlgnwj-9ECS5oLDMfJeYA4A4/img.jpg?width=980" id="d2359" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d17a07b33871ae3e0157b9db2ed9661d" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
This graph shows different emission pathways and when the world is expected to reach global average temperatures of 1.5℃ or 2℃ above pre-industrial levels. Global Carbon Project, Author provided
<p>Limiting warming to 1.5℃ requires <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/cut-global-emissions-76-percent-every-year-next-decade-meet-15degc" target="_blank">cutting global emissions by 7.6% each year</a> this decade. This does sound difficult, but there are reasons for optimism.</p><p>First, it's possible technically and economically. For example, the use of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power" target="_blank">wind</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power" target="_blank">solar</a> power has grown exponentially in the past decade, and their prices have plummeted to the point where they are now among the <a href="https://www.irena.org/publications/2020/Jun/Renewable-Power-Costs-in-2019" target="_blank">cheapest</a> sources of electricity. Some areas, including energy storage and industrial processes such as steel and cement manufacture, still need further research and a drop in price (or higher carbon prices).</p><p>Second, it's possible politically. Partly in response to the <a href="https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement" target="_blank">Paris Agreement</a>, a growing number of countries have adopted stronger targets. <a href="https://www.wri.org/blog/2019/09/what-does-net-zero-emissions-mean-6-common-questions-answered" target="_blank">Twenty countries</a> and regions (including <a href="https://www.mfe.govt.nz/climate-change/zero-carbon-amendment-act" target="_blank">New Zealand</a> and the European Union) are now targeting net zero emissions by 2050 or earlier.</p><p>A recent example of striking progress comes from Ireland – a country with a similar emissions profile to New Zealand. The incoming coalition's "<a href="https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/programme-for-government-what-are-the-main-points-in-the-five-year-plan-1.4279046" target="_blank">program for government</a>" includes emission cuts of 7% per year and a reduction by half by 2030.</p><p>Third, it's possible socially. Since 2019, we have seen the massive growth of the <a href="https://theconversation.com/climate-change-children-are-carving-out-a-place-in-politics-now-adults-must-listen-and-act-123704" target="_blank">School Strike 4 Climate</a> movement and an increase in fossil fuel <a href="https://gofossilfree.org/divestment/commitments/" target="_blank">divestment</a>. Several media organizations, including The Conversation, have made a <a href="https://theconversation.com/media-impartiality-on-climate-change-is-ethically-misguided-and-downright-dangerous-130778" target="_blank">commitment to evidence-based coverage of climate change</a> and calls for a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/21/climate/green-new-deal-questions-answers.html" target="_blank">Green New Deal</a> are coming from a range of political parties, especially in the U.S. and Europe.</p><p>There is also a growing understanding that to ensure a safe future we need to consume less overall. If these trends continue, then I believe we can still stay below 1.5℃.</p>
The Pessimist Perspective
<p>Now suppose we don't manage that. It's 2030 and emissions have only fallen a little bit. We're staring at 2℃ in the second half of the century.</p><p>At 2℃ of warming, we could expect to lose more than 90% of our coral reefs. Insects and plants would be at higher risk of extinction, and the number of dangerously hot days would increase rapidly.</p><p>The challenges would be exacerbated and we would have new issues to consider. First, under the "<a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2009/06/proving-the-shifting-baselines-theory-how-humans-consistently-misperceive-nature/" target="_blank">shifting baseline</a>" phenomenon — essentially a failure to notice slow change and to value what is already lost — people might discount the damage already done. Continuously worsening conditions might become the new normal.</p><p><span></span>Second, climate impacts such as mass migration could lead to a rise of nationalism and make international cooperation harder. And third, we could begin to pass unpredictable "<a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03595-0" target="_blank">tipping points</a>" in the Earth system. For example, warming of more than 2°C could set off widespread melting in Antarctica, which in turn would contribute to sea level rise.</p><p>But true doom-mongers tend to assume a worst-case scenario on virtually every area of uncertainty. It is important to remember that such scenarios are not very likely.</p><p><span></span>While bad, this 2030 scenario doesn't add up to doom — and it certainly doesn't change the need to move away from fossil fuels to low-carbon options.</p>From Your Site Articles
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Woodland caribou in northern Ontario. J.H. / CC BY-ND 2.0
By Tara Lohan
A logged forest is a changed forest, and for woodland caribou that could mean the difference between life and death.
<p>A recent <a href="https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jwmg.21829" target="_blank">study</a> in the <em>Journal of Wildlife Management</em> tracked the survival rates and population growth of woodland caribou (<em>Rangifer tarandus caribou</em>) across two areas of northern Ontario, Canada. In one area about a third of the forest had been logged 30 to 50 years ago. In the other, the only disturbances were from natural events.</p><p>The research found "substantial differences" in the survival of adult caribou between the two areas.</p>
<p>The animals, it turned out, fared considerably worse in the previously logged landscape — so badly that the researchers, led by <a href="https://www.fryxell-lab.com/thefryxelllab" target="_blank">John Fryxell</a>, a professor at the University of Guelph and executive director of the <a href="https://biodiversity.uoguelph.ca/" target="_blank">Biodiversity Institute of Ontario</a>, concluded it would lead to a dwindling population. The unlogged habitat, however, they found "should be considerably more capable of sustaining caribou."</p><p>The high mortality rates for the caribou in the logged forest are mostly due to wolf predation, but human changes to the landscape help make that possible. Development has been a driving force behind declining caribou numbers throughout their range.</p><p>As a result of these human disturbances, the caribou population in North America is in a precarious position. Woodland caribou once ranged across half of Canada and the northern reaches of the contiguous United States. But they're now gone from their southern range. In Canada's boreal forests, the animals are listed as threatened under the federal Species at Risk Act, Canada's version of the Endangered Species Act.</p><p>While woodland caribou have evolved to live with forests disturbed by wildfire, they haven't fared well in forests disturbed by people. One of the biggest threats is habitat fragmentation from commercial logging, mining, oil and gas — and all the roads associated with those activities.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzUxMzA0Ni9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYwMjc4Nzc5OX0.Im2Bk0epol_P5NjtPoPU8wCFVC6Jmmdekm7ObdaiRbg/img.jpg?width=980" id="4204a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="99b5f5d275212ce21fa200e2d57edd83" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://therevelator.org/woodland-caribou-boreal/" target="_blank">The Revelator</a>. </em><br/></p>Tar sands mining in Fort McMurray, Alberta fragments habitat for caribou. Kris Krüg / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
<p>But here's the twist: Moose do better in these disturbed landscapes, and that puts caribou further at risk, albeit indirectly.</p><p>Previous research has found that moose prefer the vegetation that grows in these early successional forests that follow a large-scale disturbance, like commercial logging. And a higher density of moose attracts more wolves, which are also able to <a href="https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1365-2664.12732" target="_blank">move faster and hunt farther</a> by following linear clearings like roads and pipelines in these developed areas.</p><p>While moose are the primary prey for wolves, caribou that wander into these forests become another tasty target.</p><p>"The bottom line," Fryxell explains, "is that the combination of vegetation changes, increase in road density, increase in moose, and consequent increase in wolves threaten long-term viability of woodland caribou in boreal landscapes of Ontario, in a similar fashion to many other parts of Canada."</p><p>A national assessment found that around 70% of Canada's local <a href="http://registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=2FEAAC82-1#_ex" target="_blank">populations of woodland caribou were no longer self-sustaining</a>.</p><p>So what's to be done?</p><p>Last year provincial managers in Quebec floated the idea of <a href="https://www.nationalobserver.com/2019/12/11/news/quebec-plan-kill-wolves-protect-caribou-angers-conservationists" target="_blank">killing wolves</a> to protect caribou herds. Their idea met with public backlash, but wolves in British Columbia weren't so lucky. During the winter of 2019-2020, a whopping 463 wolves were killed by the B.C. provincial government for the stated purpose of protecting populations of southern mountain caribou, another caribou ecotype.</p><p>Some of the money to pay for the kill came from Coastal GasLink, a company actively clearing land in caribou habitat for a pipeline, the Canadian news outlet the <em><a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/a-dangerous-road-coastal-gaslink-pays-to-kill-wolves-in-endangered-caribou-habitat-in-b-c-interior/" target="_blank">Narwhal </a></em><a href="https://thenarwhal.ca/a-dangerous-road-coastal-gaslink-pays-to-kill-wolves-in-endangered-caribou-habitat-in-b-c-interior/" target="_blank">reported</a>.</p><p>And a <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10531-020-02008-3" target="_blank">recently published study</a> in the journal <em>Biology and Conservation </em>found that the culls were not likely to aid caribou and pointed out several shortcomings in previous research that called for such wolf-control measures.</p><p>There are other, and better, options — like habitat protection and restoration.</p><p>Fryxell's study concluded that "the most secure conservation measure would be to set aside extensive tracts of boreal forest with natural patterns of disturbance to sustain viable caribou sub‐populations."</p><p>Research shows that the animals need at least 65% of their range undisturbed to have a good shot at survival.</p><p>And helping caribou will come with other environmental benefits. Canada's 2018 <a href="http://registrelep-sararegistry.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=2FEAAC82-1#_ex" target="_blank">federal action</a> plan to restore caribou stated, "Boreal caribou is also considered by many to be an indicator of the overall state of Canada's boreal forest ecosystem." So keeping forests intact or restoring habitat is a proposition that would benefit not only caribou but many other species.</p><p><em><a href="https://therevelator.org/author/taralohan/" target="_blank">Tara Lohan</a> is deputy editor of The Revelator and has worked for more than a decade as a digital editor and environmental journalist focused on the intersections of energy, water and climate. Her work has been published by The Nation, American Prospect, High Country News, Grist, Pacific Standard</em><em style=""> and others. She is the editor of two books on the global water crisis.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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A polar bear stands on sea ice on the North Pole. Arterra / Universal Images Group via Getty Images
If world governments don't act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, most polar bear populations will not survive the century, a new study has found.
<p>Polar bears, who rely on <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/arctic" target="_self">Arctic</a> <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/sea-ice" target="_self">sea ice</a> to hunt for seals, have long been a symbol of the impacts of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a>. As the ice melts, they lose the ability to sustain themselves.</p><p>"Polar bears are already sitting at the top of the world; if the ice goes, they have no place to go," lead study author and University of Toronto Scarborough biologist Péter Molnár told <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/science-environment-53474445" target="_blank">BBC News</a>.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">When will polar bear populations collapse? The answer is up to us. <a href="https://t.co/Ln0XxboXL1">https://t.co/Ln0XxboXL1</a><a href="https://twitter.com/nresearchnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nresearchnews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/polarbearresearch?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#polarbearresearch</a></p>— Polar Bears International (@PolarBears) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolarBears/status/1285297991360720896?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>But the study, published in <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-020-0818-9" target="_blank"><em>Nature Climate Change</em></a> Monday, is the first to predict when and where Arctic warming will threaten the bears' survival, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/20/most-polar-bears-to-disappear-by-2100-study-predicts-aoe" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.</p><p>"It's been clear for some time that polar bears are going to suffer under climate change," Molnár told The Guardian. "But what was not fully clear was when we would expect major declines in the survival and reproduction of polar bears that could ultimately lead to their extirpation."</p><p>To answer this question, scientists looked at two emissions scenarios: business as usual and a more moderate option in which emissions peak in 2040 before starting to fall, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/20/climate/polar-bear-extinction.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. Under the business-as-usual model, all populations of polar bears would be wiped out by 2100, except for the bears living in Canada's northernmost Queen Elizabeth Islands, The Guardian reported. But even under the moderate scenario, most populations were likely to suffer reproductive failure by 2080, the study found.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For the first time, scientists have answered the critical question of 'when' the persistence of polar bear populations across the Arctic will be threatened due to sea ice loss from global warming.<a href="https://t.co/NW2vf3QbPx">https://t.co/NW2vf3QbPx</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/nresearchnews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@nresearchnews</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/climateactionnow?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#climateactionnow</a> <a href="https://t.co/6c8V2nYhzy">pic.twitter.com/6c8V2nYhzy</a></p>— Polar Bears International (@PolarBears) <a href="https://twitter.com/PolarBears/status/1285333085031141377?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 20, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<p>"The study shows clearly that polar bears are going to do better with less warming," University of Alberta polar bear expert Andrew Derocher, who was not involved with the study, told The New York Times. "But no matter which scenario you look at, there are serious concerns about <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation" target="_self">conservation</a> of the species."</p><p>Polar bears can fast for months at a time when sea ice melts in the spring and summer. The researchers made their predictions based on how long male bears could reasonably fast and survive and how long females could reasonably fast and raise their young compared with how long different parts of the Arctic are projected to be ice free through 2100.</p><p>They assessed 13 of 19 polar bear populations, or around 80 percent of the roughly 25,000 bears remaining. Bears in Canada's Archipelago ecoregion were not assessed because it is hard to estimate future sea ice in the area's islands and channels, according to The Guardian.</p>
<p>If nothing is done to reduce emissions, bears in Canada's southern Hudson Bay and Davis Strait could fail to reproduce by 2040 while most bears in Alaska and Russia could be at risk by 2080. The polar bear population in western Hudson Bay has already shrunk around 30 percent since 1987.</p><p>"Showing how imminent the threat is for different polar bear populations is another reminder that we must act now to head off the worst of future problems faced by us all," study coauthor and chief scientist of <a href="https://polarbearsinternational.org/" target="_blank">Polar Bears International</a> Dr. Steven Amstrup told BBC News. "The trajectory we're on now is not a good one, but if society gets its act together, we have time to save polar bears. And if we do, we will benefit the rest of life on Earth, including ourselves."</p>
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Spotted turtles (seen above) are one of the animals listed in a new lawsuit against the Trump administration which claims they have failed to protect 241 plant and animal species under the Endangered Species Act. Mark Wilson / The Boston Globe / Getty Images
The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Department of the Interior have failed to protect 241 plant and animal species under the Endangered Species Act, according to a federal lawsuit filed last week by the Center for Biological Diversity, as Bloomberg Environment reported.
<p>Four years ago, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Services created a framework to address the backlog of more than 500 species that were slated to receive protections, including the 241 species listed in the lawsuit. In the filing, the Center for Biological Diversity claims that the Trump Administration prevented the Fish and Wildlife Service from working its way through the list, as <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/environmental-group-trump-administration-241-species-1489713" target="_blank">Newsweek</a> reported. </p>
<p>One of the most pernicious things that can happen for species that need direct protection or habitat protection is for the federal government to do nothing. By systematically doing nothing, the administration has allowed 241 species to reach the brink of extinction, according to <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/02/trump-has-been-very-bad-for-vulnerable-animals-the-administration-may-finally-have-to-change-its-behavior/" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a>. Most of the species listed in the lawsuit have been awaiting protections for a decade or longer. </p>
<p>Among the species listed in the suit are spotted turtles in the Great Lakes and on the Eastern seaboard, moose in the Midwest, a western bumblebee that has declined by 84 percent, and a tiny freshwater fish in Chesapeake Bay that flips stones with its nose to find food, according to a <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/lawsuit-attacks-trump-failure-protect-241-species-extinction-2020-02-26-2020-02-27/" target="_blank">statement</a> from the Center for Biological Diversity. The Center also created an <a href="http://center.maps.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=f92a9c81130c4a05bb180fe1a683b619" target="_blank">interactive map</a> of the U.S. that details which species are living in each state.</p>
<p>"As moose and golden-winged warblers and hundreds of other species fight the rising tide of the extinction crisis, Trump officials won't lift a finger to help," Noah Greenwald, the Center for Biological Diversity's endangered species director said. "This administration's ugly contempt for wildlife and the Endangered Species Act threatens our country's entire web of life. Every day of delay brings these incredible, irreplaceable plants and animals one step closer to extinction."</p>
<p>The Center for Biological Diversity ran the numbers and calculated that the Trump administration has only approved 21 species to be listed on the Endangered Species list, which averages less than seven per year, as <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/02/trump-has-been-very-bad-for-vulnerable-animals-the-administration-may-finally-have-to-change-its-behavior/" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a> reported. That number is the lowest of any administration this far into its presidential term, slightly outpacing the Bush administration, which added protections for about eight species per year. By contrast, the Obama administration added about 45 species per year and the Clinton administration approved 65 species per year.</p><p>"The extinction crisis gets worse by the day, but Trump officials are twiddling their thumbs as plants and animals fade away," Greenwald said in a <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/lawsuit-attacks-trump-failure-protect-241-species-extinction-2020-02-26-2020-02-27/" target="_blank">statement</a>. "It's a moral failure of epic proportions. And it's hurting future generations in ways that can never be undone."</p><p>Greenwald identified several sources of the backlog to <a href="https://www.motherjones.com/environment/2020/02/trump-has-been-very-bad-for-vulnerable-animals-the-administration-may-finally-have-to-change-its-behavior/" target="_blank">Mother Jones</a>. He said, "There are these various political appointees in different positions [there] who have a very long record of opposition to the protection of endangered species, and I think they just end up hanging up decisions by asking questions: 'Well, are we sure about the range of the species?'; 'Are we sure this threat is really impacting them?'"</p><p>The <a href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/programs/biodiversity/pdfs/241-species-complaint.pdf" target="_blank">lawsuit</a> simply asks that the courts require the Fish and Wildlife Service to end the backlog for 231 species, finalize a determination for six in limbo, and finalize critical habitat protections for four other species. </p>
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Jane Goodall on Conservation, Climate Change and COVID-19: 'If We Carry on With Business as Usual, We're Going to Destroy Ourselves'
10 July
Climate
Dr. Jane Goodall, the world-renowned conservationist, desperately wants the world to pay attention to what she sees as the greatest threat to humanity's existence. Craig Barritt / Getty Images for TIME
By Jeff Berardelli
While COVID-19 and protests for racial justice command the world's collective attention, ecological destruction, species extinction and climate change continue unabated. While the world's been focused on other crises, an alarming study was released warning that species extinction is now progressing so fast that the consequences of "biological annihilation" may soon be "unimaginable."
<p><a href="https://www.janegoodall.org/" target="_blank">Dr. Jane Goodall</a>, the world-renowned conservationist, desperately wants the world to pay attention to what she sees as the greatest threat to humanity's existence.</p><p>CBS News recently spoke to Goodall over a video conference call and asked her questions about the state of our planet. Her soft-spoken grace somehow helped cushion what was otherwise extremely sobering news: "I just know that if we carry on with business as usual, we're going to destroy ourselves. It would be the end of us, as well as life on Earth as we know it," warned Goodall.</p><p>What follows is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation.<br> </p>
<p><strong><em>Jeff Berardelli:</em></strong> <strong>Destruction of nature is causing some really big concerns around the world. One that comes to the forefront right now is </strong><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-environment-pandemic-infectious-diseases/" target="_blank"><strong>emergent diseases like COVID-19</strong></a><strong>. Can you describe how destruction of the environment contributes to this?</strong></p><p><strong></strong><strong><em>Dr. Jane Goodall:</em></strong> Well, the thing is, we brought this on ourselves because the scientists that have been studying these so-called zoonotic diseases that jump from an animal to a human have been predicting something like this for so long. As we chop down at stake <span style="background-color: initial;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-brazil-amazon-rainforest-destruction/" target="_blank">tropical rainforest</a></span>, with its rich biodiversity, we are eating away the habitats of millions of animals, and many of them are being pushed into greater contact with humans. We're driving deeper and deeper, making roads throughout the habitat, which again brings people and animals in contact with each other. People are hunting the animals and <span style="background-color: initial;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wuhan-china-coronavirus-bans-eating-wild-animals-breeding-wet-markets/" target="_blank">selling the meat</a></span>, or trafficking the infants, and all of this is creating environments which are perfect for a virus or a bacteria to cross that species barrier and sometimes, like COVID-19, it becomes very contagious and we're suffering from it.</p><p>But we know if we don't stop destroying the environment and disrespecting animals — we're hunting them, killing them, eating them; killing and eating chimpanzees in Central Africa led to HIV/AIDS — there will be another one. It's inevitable.</p><p><strong>Do you fear that the next [pandemic] will be a lot worse than this one?</strong></p><p>Well, we've been lucky with this one because, although it's incredibly infectious, the percentage of people who die is relatively low. Mostly they recover and hopefully then build up some immunity. But supposing the next one is just as contagious and has a percentage of deaths like <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/ebola-virus-disease" target="_blank">Ebola</a>, for example, this would have an even more devastating effect on humanity than this one.</p>
<p><strong>I think people have a hard time connecting these, what may look like chance events, with our interactions and relationship with nature. Can you describe to people why the way that we treat the natural world is so important?</strong><br></p><p>Well, first of all, it's not just leading to zoonotic diseases, and there are many of them. The destruction of the environment is also contributing to the <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/climate-change/" target="_blank">climate crisis</a>, which tends to be put in second place because of our panic about the pandemic. We will get through the pandemic like we got through World War II, World War I, and the horrors following the World Trade towers being destroyed. But climate change is a very real existential threat to humankind and we don't have that long to slow it down. </p><p>Intensive farming, where we're destroying the land slowly with the chemical poisons, and the monocultures — which can be wiped out by a disease because there is no variation of crops being grown — is leading to habitat destruction. It's leading to the creation of more <span style="background-color: initial;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-lockdowns-climate-change-carbon-dioxide-emissions/" target="_blank">CO2</a></span> through fossil fuels, methane gas and other greenhouse gas [released] by digestion from the billions of domestic animals.</p><p>It's pretty grim. We need to realize we're part of the environment, that we need the natural world. We depend on it. We can't go on destroying. We've got to somehow understand that we're not separated from it, we are all intertwined. Harm nature, harm ourselves.</p><p><strong>If we continue on with business as usual, what do you fear the outcome will be?</strong></p><p>Well, if we continue with business as usual, we're going to come to the point of no return. At a certain point the ecosystems of the world will just give up and collapse and that's the end of us eventually too.</p><p>What about our children? We're still bringing children into the world — what a grim future is theirs to look forward to. It's pretty shocking but my hope is, <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/earth-day-how-the-pandemic-is-changing-air-pollution-levels/" target="_blank">during this pandemic</a>, with people trapped inside, factories closed down temporarily, and people not driving, it has <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-photos-decline-air-pollution-lockdown/" target="_blank">cleared up the atmosphere</a> amazingly. The people in the big cities can look up at the night sky and sea stars are bright, not looking through a layer of pollution. So when people emerge [from the pandemic] they're not going to want to go back to the old polluted days.</p><p>Now, in some countries there's not much they can do about it. But if enough of them, a groundswell becomes bigger and bigger and bigger [and] people say: "No I don't want to go down this road. We want to find a different, green economy. We don't want to always put economic development ahead of protecting the environment. We care about the future. We care about the health of the planet. We need nature," maybe in the end the big guys will have to listen.</p>
<p><strong>I often think our economic future, which is always put at the forefront, is actually dependent upon our ecological future. Without an ecological future, there is not going to be any economic growth. Would you agree?</strong></p><p>Absolutely. I mean, it's all been said again and again, but fossil fuels are not infinite, they will come to an end, leading to a lot more destruction of the environment for sure. Forests and natural resources are not infinite and yet we're treating them as though they are, and in some places using them up more quickly than nature can replenish them.</p>We have to have a <span style="background-color: initial; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/climate-change-action-economic-benefit-study-finds/" target="_blank">different kind of economy</a></span>, we need a different way of thinking about what is success.<strong> </strong>Is it just about having more and more money, more and more stuff, being able to show off to your friends, and the wasteful society we live in? We waste <span style="background-color: initial; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/earth-day-2019-fashion-industrys-carbon-impact-is-bigger-than-airline-industrys/" target="_blank">clothes</a></span>, we waste <span style="background-color: initial; font-family: "Helvetica Neue", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/americans-waste-nearly-a-pound-of-food-each-per-day-study-finds/" target="_blank">food,</a></span> we waste laptops and cellphones. That pollutes the environment. So we've got to think differently, haven't we?<p><strong>So what do we do? Right now our worldview is based on GDP. You suggest that we think of it in a different way. So do you have a suggestion of how we rate our success other than GDP?</strong></p><p>I'm not an economist.<strong> </strong>I just know that if we carry on with business as usual, we're going to <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-climate-change-report-human-civilization-at-risk-extinction-by-2050-new-australian-climate/" target="_blank">destroy ourselves</a>. It would be the end of us, as well as life on Earth as we know it.</p><p>So one thing we can do, those of us in affluent societies can almost all do with a bit less. We have a very unsustainable lifestyle. You can't really blame people, they grew up into it. But if you went through World War II like I did, when you took nothing for granted, one square of chocolate for a week is what we had and everything was rationed. So, you appreciate it. We never wasted even an ounce of food; not like today. </p><p>Then, we also have to alleviate poverty. Because if you're really poor you destroy the environment, you cut down the last trees to make land to grow more food for your family, or fish the last fish. Or if you're in an urban area you buy the cheapest junk food. You don't have the luxury of asking: how is this made, did it harm the environment, did it lead to the suffering of animals like in the factory farms, is it cheap because of child slave labor? You just have to buy the cheapest in order to survive. </p><p>Then the third thing, which nobody wants to talk about, but nevertheless ... there are approximately 7.8 billion of us on the planet today and already in some places we're using up natural resources faster than nature can replenish them. In 2050 it's estimated that there will be 9.7 billion of us. What will happen? We can't just go on burying it under the carpet. </p><p>Population issues are politically sensitive so I talk about voluntary population optimization. So that's OK, it's voluntary, it is your choice. You optimize it for your financial situation. People are desperate to educate their children and they can't educate eight anymore. So they love family planning, and women can space out their children so that they can have a child and look after it.</p>
<p><strong>Let's switch gears. I don't eat animals. I have a dog. I love my dog. Let's talk about the idea that animals have feelings and that pigs are as intelligent as dogs...</strong></p><p>You know, animals are so much more intelligent than people used to think, and they have feelings and emotions and personalities, like your dog, any animal you share your life with. You know, birds now are making tools and octopus are incredibly intelligent. And when we think of all this trafficking of animals, selling them in meat markets or factory farms, when you think that each one one is an individual, can feel fear and pain, can suffer mentally as well as physically, isn't it shocking? I'm glad you don't eat them. I don't either, of course. </p><p>The shock and horror because in China and South Korea they <span style="background-color: initial;"><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dog-meat-festival-china-underway-in-yulin-but-activists-hope-it-will-be-the-last-amid-coronavirus/" target="_blank">eat dogs</a></span> — well, the thought of eating a dog makes me feel particularly sick, but not more sick than eating a pig. They eat dogs and we don't like it, but we eat pigs, and they are as intelligent as dogs.</p><p>Isn't the point, if you must eat an animal shouldn't you treat it really well, like the Native Americans, respect the animal and give thanks that it's sacrificed itself for you?</p><p><strong>This is a bit more of a thought-provoking question: What has led us to this over-consumption in society? There is an idea that perhaps there is a Biblical basis, that we have dominion, that we're in charge, and because we're in charge we're able to do what we want. Can you give me an idea of why we are where we are, as a world right now, and what led us here? </strong></p><p>[Laughing]<strong> </strong>You think I'm going to be able to answer all these questions?</p><p><strong>I know it's a lot, but I know that you must have some thoughts on this.</strong></p><p><strong></strong>Well, first of all, I do think that religion has played a role. I was told by a Hebrew scholar the original translation of that word that you just mentioned, "dominion," is wrong. It's actually something more like "stewardship." That's very different. If God gave us stewardship that's different from saying we have dominion. So I think religion started this thinking that we're so different from all the other animals and I was taught there was a difference in kind, not degree. Thank goodness the chimpanzees are so like us biologically, as well as behaviorally, that science had to start thinking differently.</p><p>So how did we get there? It's sort of been like this all throughout human history. There were so many fewer of us back then that we could have these unsustainable lifestyles and it didn't really matter; they were sustainable. Think of how people have always exploited the natural world just because we can. And so there's been a lag between developing new technologies [which enable us to] destroy whole forests. Whereas the indigenous people might take a week to cut down the big tree, we can do it in an hour. And the moral evolution and the sense of a spiritual awareness and connection to the natural world on which we depend, that's lagged behind as well.</p>
<p><strong>So how do we repair that? How do we rediscover our connection to the rest of the natural world?</strong></p><p>As I think you know, I began a program for young people back in 1991 called <a href="https://www.rootsandshoots.org/" target="_blank">Roots and Shoots</a> because young people had lost hope in the future. I've met them all over the world. They were mostly apathetic and didn't seem to care. Or they were angry or deeply depressed and they told me they felt like that because we compromised their future and there was nothing they could do about it. And we have compromised their future. We've been stealing it for years and years. And yes, we still are still stealing it today. But when they said there was nothing they could do I thought, no, that's not right. We got this window of time. If we all get together, take action, we can start healing some of the harm, we can start slowing down climate change and we can work on educating people. </p><p>Kids are really good at educating their parents and grandparents, some of whom may be in positions to make a huge difference, like CEOs of big companies or people in government. That program is now kindergarten to university and everything in between. It's in 68 countries and growing. Every group has the message: Each one of us — and that means you as well as me — we make some impact every single day and we have the luxury of choosing the impact that we make.</p>
<p class=""><em>This story originally appeared in</em> <em><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/" target="_blank">CBS News</a>,</em> <em>and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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The current rate of CO2 emissions is a major event in the recorded history of Earth. EPA
At several points in the history of our planet, increasing amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have caused extreme global warming, prompting the majority of species on Earth to die out.
<p>
In the past, these events were triggered by a huge <a href="https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/volcanoes-may-have-triggered-the-last-unexplained-mass-extinction/" target="_blank">volcanic eruption</a> or asteroid impact. Now, Earth is heading for another mass extinction — and human activity is to blame.
</p>
<script async="async" data-counter="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/130869/count?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" id="theconversation_tracker_hook" src="https://theconversation.com/javascripts/lib/content_tracker_hook.js" type="text/javascript"></script>
<p>I am an Earth and Paleo-climate scientist and <a href="https://link.springer.com/search?dc.creator=%22Andrew%20Y.+Glikson%22" target="_blank">have researched</a> the relationships between asteroid impacts, volcanism, climate changes and mass extinctions of species.</p><p>My research suggests the current growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions is faster than those which triggered two previous mass extinctions, including the event that wiped out the dinosaurs.</p><p>The world's gaze may be focused on COVID-19 right now. But the risks to nature from human-made global warming — and the imperative to act — remain clear.</p>
Past Mass Extinctions
<p>Many species can adapt to slow, or even moderate, environmental changes. But Earth's history shows that extreme shifts in the climate can cause many species to <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-11-13/what-is-a-mass-extinction-are-we-in-one-now/11699372" target="_blank">become extinct</a>.</p><p>For example, about 66 million years ago an asteroid hit Earth. The subsequent smashed rocks and widespread fires released massive amounts of carbon dioxide over <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/99/12/7836" target="_blank">about 10,000 years</a>. Global temperatures soared, sea levels rose and oceans became acidic. About <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/K-T-extinction" target="_blank">80% of species</a>, including the dinosaurs, were wiped out.</p><p>And about 55 million years ago, global temperatures spiked again, over <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo578;%20https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo1179;https://www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=136084&pt=2&p=148709" target="_blank">100,000 years or so</a>. The cause of this event, known as the <a href="https://www.britannica.com/science/Paleocene-Eocene-Thermal-Maximum" target="_blank">Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum</a>, is not entirely clear. One theory, known as the <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010RG000326" target="_blank">"methane burp" hypothesis</a>, posits that a massive volcanic eruption triggered the sudden release of methane from ocean sediments, making oceans more acidic and killing off many species.</p><p>So is life on Earth now headed for the same fate?</p>Comparing Greenhouse Gas Levels
<p>Before industrial times began at the end of the 18th century, carbon dioxide in the atmosphere sat at around <a href="https://data.giss.nasa.gov/modelforce/ghgases/" target="_blank">300 parts per million</a>. This means that for every one million molecules of gas in the atmosphere, 300 were carbon dioxide.</p><p>In February this year, atmospheric carbon dioxide reached <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/" target="_blank">414.1 parts per million</a>. Total greenhouse gas level — carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide combined — reached almost <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/" target="_blank">500 parts per million of carbon dioxide-equivalent</a></p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjkxMjI4OC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMjYwNjkxMH0.yJYFtFc68sqpl1LiOvqI3718AdX7Z8DPy7txXoLd0v8/img.png?width=980" id="4b08d" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1d985fd410b6bde74e623720294c4ddf" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Author provided / The Conversation /CC BY-ND
<p>Carbon dioxide is now pouring into the atmosphere at a rate of <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/" target="_blank">two to three parts per million each year</a>.</p><p>Using carbon records stored in fossils and organic matter, I have determined that current carbon emissions constitute an extreme event in the recorded history of Earth.</p><p><a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13342" target="_blank">My research</a> has demonstrated that annual carbon dioxide emissions are now faster than after both the asteroid impact that eradicated the dinosaurs (about 0.18 parts per million CO2 per year), and the thermal maximum 55 million years ago (about 0.11 parts per million CO2 per year).</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjkxMjI5MC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0NzQ3ODk3Mn0.g8TTzEvml6Qw9WfBnfhvwXzlR48YhKoKrsZbyRTJDOM/img.jpg?width=980" id="d5fd0" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="dcf6c33f1d1125674de52879b36d4959" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
An asteroid wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago. Shutterstock
The Next Mass Extinction Has Begun
<p>Current atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are not yet at the levels seen 55 million and 65 million years ago. But the massive influx of carbon dioxide means the climate is changing faster than many plant and animal species <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13342" target="_blank">can adapt</a>.</p><p><a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2019/05/nature-decline-unprecedented-report/" target="_blank">A major United Nations report</a> released last year warned around one million animal and plant species were threatened with extinction. Climate change was listed as one of five key drivers.</p><p>The report said the distributions of 47% of land-based flightless mammals, and almost 25% of threatened birds, may already have been negatively affected by climate change.</p><p>Many researchers fear the climate system is approaching a <a href="https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252" target="_blank">tipping point</a> - a threshold beyond which rapid and irreversible changes will occur. This will create a cascade of <a href="https://sites.hks.harvard.edu/sed/docs/hjs_esa_environment_0510.pdf" target="_blank">devastating effects</a>.</p><p>There are already signs tipping points have been reached. For example, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/27/arctic-warming-scientists-alarmed-by-crazy-temperature-rises" target="_blank">rising Arctic temperatures</a> have led to <a href="https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7616" target="_blank">major ice melt</a>, and weakened the <a href="https://www.globalresearch.ca/melting-ice-sheets-and-weakened-polar-fronts-onset-of-climate-tipping-points/5668981" target="_blank">Arctic jet stream</a> — a powerful band of westerly winds.</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjkxMjI5MS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1ODYyOTMzMX0.T0X8GzcXOYNwBJ6-p18aq0UkicX7p94q77wooSdM9T0/img.jpg?width=980" id="cd289" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="feaaa383fdbf1df8aa741e49b7bfdd62" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
A diagram showing the weakening Arctic jet stream, and subsequent movements of warm and cold air. NASA
<p>This allows north-moving warm air to cross the polar boundary, and cold fronts emanating from the poles to <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-019-02458-x" target="_blank">intrude south into Siberia, Europe and Canada</a>.</p><p>A shift in climate zones is also causing the tropics to expand and migrate toward the poles, at a rate of about <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-worlds-tropical-zone-is-expanding-and-australia-should-be-worried-77701" target="_blank">56 to 111 kilometres per decade</a>. The tracks of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones are likewise shifting toward the poles. Australia is highly vulnerable to this shift.</p>Uncharted Future Climate Territory
<p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature16494" target="_blank">Research</a> released in 2016 showed just what a massive impact humans are having on the planet. It said while the Earth might naturally have entered the next ice age in about 20,000 years' time, the heating produced by carbon dioxide would result in a period of super-tropical conditions, delaying the next ice age to about 50,000 years from now.</p><p>During this period, chaotic <a href="https://www.bloomsbury.com/us/storms-of-my-grandchildren-9781608195022/" target="_blank">high-energy stormy conditions</a> would prevail over much of the Earth. <a href="https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369" target="_blank">My research suggests</a> humans are likely to survive best in sub-polar regions and sheltered mountain valleys, where cooler conditions would allow flora and fauna to persist.</p><p>Earth's next mass extinction is avoidable — if carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically curbed and we develop and deploy technologies to <a href="http://www.ecosmagazine.com/?act=view_file&file_id=EC147p14.pdf" target="_blank">remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere</a>. But on the current trajectory, human activity threatens to make large parts of the Earth <a href="https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/41552709-the-uninhabitable-earth" target="_blank">uninhabitable</a> - a planetary tragedy of our own making.</p><p><span></span><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/while-we-fixate-on-coronavirus-earth-is-hurtling-towards-a-catastrophe-worse-than-the-dinosaur-extinction-130869" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. </em></p>From Your Site Articles
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KESSR
By John R. Platt
It takes a lot of effort and more than a little bit of luck for researchers like André Raine to get to the remote mountaintops of Kauai, where they're working to save endangered Hawaiian seabirds from extinction.
<p>First you need a helicopter capable of reaching sites more than 4,600 feet above sea level.</p>
<p>Then you need exactly the right weather to fly — and the hope that conditions don't shift, as they frequently do.</p><p>"The weather's not that great," said Raine, the project coordinator for the <a href="https://kauaiseabirdproject.org/" target="_blank">Kaua'i Endangered Seabird Recovery Project</a>. "We keep going and hanging out at the helipad, waiting and watching. And then it looks like it's going to be okay but it gets fogged in, or you get up there and then you get stuck. The joys of working in a remote, inaccessible area."</p><p>The seabirds — including Newell's shearwaters (<em>Puffinus newelli</em>) and Hawaiian petrels (<em>Pterodroma sandwichensis</em>) — obviously have a much easier time getting up the tops of these mountains.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMjUxMS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzNDI0MDYzOX0.Xckl7lehoaKqVpDcl2Iauq_7FsUd3dhhJCqlQ_00T7w/img.jpg?width=980" id="3eff9" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a188467cc0cf6aaf6e732ff033bf58be" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Raine holding a Hawaiian petrel chick. Courtesy Kaua'i Endangered Seabird Recovery Project
<p>So, unfortunately, do several species of invasive predators — including feral cats, black rats and feral pigs — that have put these ground-nesting birds, and so many other native Hawaiian species, on the fast track toward extinction.</p><p>"People are always really surprised by this," Raine said, "but it doesn't matter how remote the area, or how apparently inhospitable it is to predators like cats. You're going to find cats and rats and pigs in these areas. There wasn't a single site that we work in that doesn't have all these predators, busy eating the birds."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMjUxMi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY2MzEzMTUzNX0.rXgta0TE-Do3gUqhqvhU0dJa8uwDh8ugN0NrUd2Y8Wc/img.jpg?width=980" id="c4395" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a6b43d8eb34efa6830b67e9c9b760acb" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
An endangered chick in the mouth of a feral cat. Courtesy Kaua'i Endangered Seabird Recovery Project
<p>Like many island endemics, Hawaii's bird species grew up without mammalian predators, so they're ill-adapted to the teeth and claws that arrived with human society. The cats descended from housecats, while pigs escape from agricultural sites and rats descended from stowaways on ships.</p><p>That's why the Kaua'i Endangered Seabird Recovery Project has spent the past nine years constructing fences and establishing other predator controls — work that is proving essential in giving these native birds a chance.</p><p>The first step in controlling predators is quantifying the threat.</p><p>According to a paper Raine and his colleagues published earlier this year in <a href="https://wildlife.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jwmg.21824" target="_blank">The Journal of Wildlife Management</a>, introduced predators killed at least 309 endangered seabirds at six monitored breeding colonies between 2011 and 2017. That's quite a blow for each of these endangered species.</p><p>"Newell's shearwaters and Hawaiian petrels have suffered catastrophic declines over the last few decades," Raine said. "Any chick that's lost in the population is one that we can't afford to lose."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQyMjUxMy9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY1NzM0Mjk0NH0.OQtFhGyhMY0IdQIFof0hJQjrsMnarkKMPZ7pxFGmbxQ/img.jpg?width=980" id="28423" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="67a9f67f9d9b15b91d0c4fb08f3a4018" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Hawaiian petrel. © Ken Chamberlain, some rights reserved (CC-BY-NC). Via iNaturalist.
<p>The researchers took on the sad task of collecting the dead and examining the wound patterns to determine which type of predator made the kill.</p><p>Rats, it turned out, killed the most — more than 50% of mortalities — usually from entering the birds' rocky burrows and eating eggs and chicks. That dramatically slows recovery efforts, but the research shows that adult birds who've lost their chicks returned to the same burrows the following year to try again.</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="8dd9a93a40e27d91a7d4be3e64989e97"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/QqxzWxyzQhc?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>Pigs kill fewer birds — about 10% of all tracked mortalities — but they were the most destructive, digging up and taking out entire nests. "It's literally like someone's taken a hand grenade and stuffed it down the burrow and blown it up," Raine said. "They just eat whatever's inside."</p><p>Cats were responsible for another 35% of known deaths, and Raine says the research shows those mortalities were the worst for the long-term health of the bird species. Cats target breeding birds, taking out not just the current generation but any hope of successive generations. The seabirds are very faithful to both their burrow sites and their mates, so if a cat takes out one parent the other might not breed again for several years, if at all. (Without predation, the researchers say an amazing 98.6% percent of breeding pairs matched up again and bred each year of the study.)</p>
<span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="4fc7193649ed712ac1e3c32f773b9299"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FS8meaFqnIQ?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>And while cats in general are the most destructive, some individual cats are downright scary.</p><p>"Every now and then, you get a sort of super cat, which is really good at finding burrows and killing the birds," he said.</p><p>In one incident recounted in the paper, the seabird recovery team found images of a cat taken by nine out of 30 remote cameras on the same day. Each camera was trained at a different seabird burrow — which provided ready meals for the feral feline.</p><p>"It just shows that all you need is for a cat to get into an area for a very short period," Raine said. "When the birds are sitting in a hole in the ground, they're entirely vulnerable to predation. The cat can very easily wipe out a huge number of birds."</p><p>Raine describes another incident as "quite horrific to watch." It took place at a remote site the team can only visit about once a month during breeding season, "because it's expensive and hard to get to," he said. They arrived one day to review the site's automatic cameras and the images revealed "this one cat just wreaking havoc across the site. It goes in and kills an adult Newell's shearwater, and they next thing you know it's emerging from the same burrow with four kittens. So it uses that burrow to raise the kittens, and then we get it on camera at another burrow with the kittens, basically training them how to kill more shearwaters."</p><p>That's a tough thing to see — especially when these researchers have followed the comings and goings at these burrows for years.</p><p>"You start to really empathize with these birds, because you're watching them on the burrow cameras and you're seeing all these amazing behaviors," Raine said. "And we're tracking them as well. We're seeing that they make these incredible journeys to feed their chicks. Hawaiian petrels go towards the coast of Alaska, 11-14,000 kilometers on a feeding voyage, and then you go to the site and you find this bird that's just been shredded by an introduced predator and the chicks left to starve to death. It's quite hard to deal with."</p><p>But as difficult and dangerous as these predators can be, the research also shows that the situation is far from hopeless.</p>
Fence Me In
<p>Over the past decade, the Kaua'i Endangered Seabird Recovery Project and its many organizational partners have concentrated on establishing predator controls at six of their seven regularly monitored seabird breeding sites.</p><p>Again, this isn't easy to accomplish in these remote, rarely visited locations. Materials must be flown in, ungulate-proof fences built, other traps set, and pig-hunting expeditions organized. All of it must be accomplished and maintained in precarious territory full of wet vegetation, narrow ridgelines and steep canyon walls.</p><p>To make things even more difficult, the human visitors must leave the habitat as undisturbed as possible.</p><p>"If you start making trails in these areas, then you're basically just opening them up to the hordes of predators that are out there," Raine says.</p><p>But the hard work pays off.</p><p>According to the paper, fences and other controls not only keep the invasive predators out, they give the birds the opportunity to thrive.</p><p>The research team used seven years data from the six sites, from before and after predator controls were established, and projected striking results for the future of the two seabird species.</p><p>The first model looked at what would happen to each site without predator controls. It was a disaster — mostly due to cats. "We ran that for 50 years, and we found that all of the colonies dwindle toward extinction."</p><p>The paper, in what Raine acknowledges as gallows humor, calls this the <em>CATastrophe</em> model.</p><p>The second modeling approach incorporated data from successful breeding that took place after more extensive predator controls (fences and traps) were put in place. "We found that the populations increased over those 50 years," Raine said. Under the model, which was based on 2017 population growth rates at sites with predator controls, most sites would see a 50-60% increase over the 50-year projection, while one site more than doubled.</p><p>"It really does show that if you remove the predators, the birds will begin to recover."</p><span style="display:block;position:relative;padding-top:56.25%;" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="ac52cff84afea378f9a779341a21e9c7"><iframe lazy-loadable="true" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FGzpq0g0KnA?rel=0" width="100%" height="auto" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" style="position:absolute;top:0;left:0;width:100%;height:100%;"></iframe></span><p>This isn't the be all and end all. Hawaiian seabirds face a laundry list of additional threats, including climate change, collisions with power lines, reduced fish populations at sea, and invasive plants that change forest compositions. The models don't address those threats, which also require mitigation.</p><p>There's also another introduced predator: barn owls. Hawaii introduced barn owls in the 1960s to control rats, but — as we've seen in so many other similar examples — they quickly became a new problem. Owls only killed 12 seabirds during the study, but Raine says these newest invaders pose an increasing threat that's proven harder to control. You can build fences to protect birds, after all, but you can't prevent other birds from flying over those protections.</p><p>But this research does prove that current management techniques to protect Hawaiian seabirds from their most pressing threats — cats, rats and pigs — really do work, and that they can be applied to more locations, even by private landowners who have birds on their properties. "Although we've got seven managed sites, there are other sites on the island where the birds are still hanging on, and there's no reason to expect that these techniques wouldn't be effective at other colonies."</p><p>That's important, because some of those additional sites are on the edge.</p><p>"We're finding that these other sites are just going silent," Raine said. "With no management on them, the birds just flit away." The paper recommends predator-proof fences at all sites, as well as dedicated year-round funding for both seabird monitoring efforts and predator-control operations designed to specifically target the composition of animals at each location. The authors also suggest additional port biosecurity to prevent more invasive species from arriving, and possibly the targeted use of landscape-level toxicants to remove rats and cats.</p><p>In addition, Raine says, these techniques can be applied to other species and other island locations where invasive predators threaten ground-nesting birds.</p><p>Perhaps most importantly, the research helps show these conservationists — whose work has continued as "essential" during the pandemic — that their efforts to fight extinction in these challenging, hard-to-reach habitats are paying off.</p><p>"I remember one of our sites in particular — in fact the one I was trying to get into today — the first time I went there I found within a five-foot area a burrow that had been predated by a cat, a dead chick that had been pulled out by a rat, and a burrow that had been destroyed by a pig," Raine recounted. "Now you can go a month without even seeing predators at some of these sites because of the great work that the controllers' crews are doing."</p><p>And this raises one more issue: this work isn't just about birds. It may help heal Hawaii — the extinction capital of the world — in the process.</p><p>"I think it's really important that people understand the critical importance of seabirds as the architects of the island itself," Raine said. "They bring all those ocean nutrients up into the mountains, and their partly responsible for the watersheds that we all rely on. It's a whole ecosystem that needs to be addressed."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://therevelator.org/hawaii-predator-catastrophe/" target="_blank">The Revelator</a>. </em><em></em></p>
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