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Public Utilities Should Embrace Renewable Energy Revolution, Not Get Run Over By It
The U.S. electricity sector will be unrecognizable in 20 years. How—and how—fast it changes will be a big factor in how large a price the world pays for having disrupted climate equilibrium—but it is not the climate threat that will drive the changes. Electricity is a very capital intensive business. The rapid shift from one set of technologies and business models to another means that much of the existing capital will be stranded—worthless—sooner than its owners will like. This is what Schumpeter called capitalism’s “creative destruction.” But incumbent owners and firms are using every tool at their disposal to slow change to protect the value of their investments.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
Three major threats undermine the value of the classic U.S. utility model: big power plants linked to big transmission grids operated by monopoly companies with guaranteed profits.
- SLUMPING DEMAND: Historically electricity was mostly wasted (90 percent of the electrons in a light bulb turning to heat not light). Optimizing its value required information, which cost more than electrons. Now electrons are more expensive than information. The historic link between total economic production and electricity demand has shattered. Not only is electricity consumption rising slower than the economy grows, in the U.S. it is actually shrinking. So utilities whose profit model required adding new generation capacity and new wires to meet higher demand are suddenly running out of load growth to feed their stock value.
- DISECONOMIES OF SCALE AND AGE: For decades utilities built bigger and bigger generating plants further and further from customers requiring more and more transmission because bigger was cheaper—and then kept them running as long as possible. Now the arrival of distributed generation—mostly in the form of rooftop solar—is enabling customers to become generators, and to replace precisely those electrons which create utility profits—peak afternoon and early evening load. And when utilities look around for “bigger is cheaper” options, they come up short, because most of their central station technologies—coal, nuclear, big hydro, new transmission corridors—are bad, unpopular neighbors. The bigger they are, the harder they are to site. Resulting delays and the need to compensate neighbors make ever bigger utility technology no longer cheaper. Recent nuclear and coal projects have, without exception, been plagued by enormous delays and cost overruns. Meanwhile, since 1977 utilities have chosen to delay modernization of their power plants, preferring instead to lobby for exemptions from pollution standards. This left power companies with an outmoded fleet of filthy coal plants that poured mercury, soot, sulfur and other toxins into neighboring communities. That delayed maintenance bill has now come due, but the economics of old coal power plants doesn’t work when both renewables and natural gas have dropped dramatically in price—cleaning up most old coal plants costs more than they are worth. (That’s before climate clean protection is added to the bill.)
- EMPOWERED CUSTOMERS. Rooftop solar, cheaper than remotely delivered grid power when you include the cost of transmission, is the killer-ap. It enables utility customers to go partly independent. In California, the combination of utility scale and roof-top solar has already stripped away the traditional afternoon peak load. This time of day fattened the profit ledger because large base-load generators could charge the same rate as more expensive intermittent natural gas peaking plants. Utilities inability thus far to respond to this threat caused Barclay’s bank to downgrade the bonds for the entire sector. But rooftop solar is only one new innovation disrupting the traditional capital and electron wasteful model. Demand response technologies, recruiting consumers whose power needs can be shifted by a few hours to shave peak demand are now a significant part of the total management strategy of many utilities. Industrial customers are jumping into the business of deploying combined heat and power making them, too, generation competitors. The U.S. grid is deplorably unreliable—20 percent of the total U.S. power supply has to be backed up with diesel generators, because the hospitals, airports, data centers, university laboratories, highways and bridge signaling systems which use that power cannot tolerate grid failures. But new fuel cell and battery storage technologies are becoming the preferred reliability option. Once customers have their own reliable storage capacity, it becomes much easier for them to self-generate and pull away from the grid altogether.
While the research that led to these disruptive changes was in many cases inspired by concern over climate, they have now achieved a competitive advantage over traditional centralized generation that is self-sustaining, no longer dependent upon climate policy. The sector will change dramatically—utilities cannot survive on their present models.
But the utilities are not out of the game yet. They have enormous opportunities if they are willing to be revolutionaries, as they were in the 1920’s when electrifying the nation the first time, or in the 1950’s when they provided the finance that enabled Post World War II Americans to shift to an appliance heavy, kilowatt hour dependent suburban “all electric” life.
They have three huge business opportunities the environmental community would love to support. Most of the industry is desperately trying to throw them away.
1. Rooftop solar. What are the “first principles” as Elon Musk likes to say?
- Rooftop solar is very capital intensive
- It is customer centric.
- It requires lots of detailed knowledge about every roof and substation.
Who in the marketplace possesses cheap capital, intimate customer relations with every electricity user, and detailed knowledge about roofs and substations?
SolarCity? Sunrun? Well, they can buy rooftop maps from Google. They pay a fortune to obtain the rest, particularly customer knowledge.
But, with that same little help from Google, your average public utility has those assets in spades. They ought to dominate the rooftop solar business and the electrons it generates, to fill in their grid and make it more reliable and robust. They can choose the best roofs for their purposes without regard to the income of the homeowner, because they can lease the space not the panels.
2. EV saturation. If utilities embrace the rooftop revolution, they still need load growth. They also need balancing capacity—customers who can be cycled on and off with load shifts since the cheapest power they can get soar and wind, is intermittent. EV's are the perfect solution to provide demand growth, while simultaneously enabling balancing load—because the average car is parked 95 percent of the time, available to charge or discharge.
Indeed, as the industry did with the "All Electric Home" in the 1950's, utilities should become the financiers of EV sales, making it cheap to buy EV’s in exchange for paying a slight a premium on the electrons they use.
3. The Storage Breakthrough. It will come—perhaps the visionaries who say our cars will become grid storage are right, and EV saturation will BE the storage breakthrough. Or perhaps some other form of storage breaks through instead. Having a grid with lots of distributed rooftop solar and demand manageable EV load means that the volume of storage needed is much smaller than would be required to meet the needs of remote solar and wind.
And if there is no technological breakthrough beyond batteries, EV's are still the key to storage. As batteries improve and EV's penetrate, this will generate a huge supply of used batteries which can no longer cycle as nimbly as an EV requires, but which have a decade or more of utility grade service left in them.
Utilities would need permission from their regulators to convert from a capital rate-based monopoly to one reliant on a diversified portfolio of fees, with modest recovery from generation of electrons. Utilities would look more like a bank or a cable company. Which in today's world does not look like a bad profit strategy.
But it’s a very different world, and holding on to old stuff for a few more years will only ensure that instead of leading the revolution, today’s public utilities are run over by it.
Part III of this series will focus on getting through the transition.
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Colorado River Has Lost 1.5 Billion Tons of Water to the Climate Crisis, 'Severe Water Shortages' May Follow
California is headed toward drought conditions as February, typically the state's wettest month, passes without a drop of rain. The lack of rainfall could lead to early fire conditions. With no rain predicted for the next week, it looks as if this month will be only the second time in 170 years that San Francisco has not had a drop of rain in February, according to The Weather Channel.
The last time San Francisco did not record a drop of rain in February was in 1864 as the Civil War raged.
"This hasn't happened in 150 years or more," said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at UCLA's Institute of the Environment and Sustainability to The Guardian. "There have even been a couple [of] wildfires – which is definitely not something you typically hear about in the middle of winter."
While the Pacific Northwest has flooded from heavy rains, the southern part of the West Coast has seen one storm after another pass by. Last week, the U.S. Drought Monitor said more Californians are in drought conditions than at any time during 2019, as The Weather Channel reported.
The dry winter has included areas that have seen devastating fires recently, including Sonoma, Napa, Lake and Mendocino counties. If the dry conditions continue, those areas will once again have dangerously high fire conditions, according to The Mercury News.
"Given what we've seen so far this year and the forecast for the next few weeks, I do think it's pretty likely we'll end up in some degree of drought by this summer," said Swain, as The Mercury News reported.
Another alarming sign of an impending drought is the decreased snowpack in the Sierra Nevada Mountain range. The National Weather Service posted to Twitter a side-by-side comparison of snowpack from February 2019 and from this year, illustrating the puny snowpack this year. The snow accumulated in the Sierra Nevadas provides water to roughly 30 percent of the state, according to NBC Los Angeles.
Right now, the snowpack is at 53 percent of its normal volume after two warm and dry months to start the year. It is a remarkable decline, considering that the snowpack started 2020 at 90 percent of its historical average, as The Guardian reported.
"Those numbers are going to continue to go down," said Swain. "I would guess that the 1 March number is going to be less than 50 percent."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center forecast that the drier-than-average conditions may last through April.
NOAA said Northern California will continue deeper into drought through the end of April, citing that the "persistent high pressure over the North Pacific Ocean is expected to continue, diverting storm systems to the north and south and away from California and parts of the Southwest," as The Weather Channel reported.
As the climate crisis escalates and the world continues to heat up, California should expect to see water drawn out of its ecosystem, making the state warmer and drier. Increased heat will lead to further loss of snow, both as less falls and as more of it melts quickly, according to The Guardian.
"We aren't going to necessarily see less rain, it's just that that rain goes less far. That's a future where the flood risk extends, with bigger wetter storms in a warming world," said Swain, as The Guardian reported.
The Guardian noted that while California's reservoirs are currently near capacity, the more immediate impact of the warm, dry winter will be how it raises the fire danger as trees and grasslands dry out.
"The plants and the forests don't benefit from the water storage reservoirs," said Swain, as The Mercury News reported. "If conditions remain very dry heading into summer, the landscape and vegetation is definitely going to feel it this year. From a wildfire perspective, the dry years do tend to be the bad fire years, especially in Northern California."
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A warm day in winter used to be a rare and uplifting relief.
Now such days are routine reminders of climate change – all the more foreboding when they coincide with news stories about unprecedented wildfires, record-breaking "rain bombs," or the accelerated melting of polar ice sheets.
Where, then, can one turn for hope in these dark months of the year?