NOAA Update Says 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be One of the Most Active in History

Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are ripe for a 2024 hurricane season that could be among the most active ever recorded, according to an update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

In NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center forecasters updated the expected number of named storms — those with winds of 39-plus miles per hour — to 17 to 24, eight to 13 of which could become hurricanes, a press release from NOAA said. Of these, four to seven could be “major hurricanes” with winds of at least 111 mph.

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the earliest category-5 Atlantic hurricane on record,” said Rick Spinrad, NOAA administrator, in the press release. “NOAA’s update to the hurricane seasonal outlook is an important reminder that the peak of hurricane season is right around the corner, when historically the most significant impacts from hurricanes and tropical storms tend to occur.”

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The updated outlook includes the four named storms that have formed — two hurricanes and two tropical storms — to date and is similar to the outlook initially issued in May.

A typical hurricane season in the Atlantic basin will produce 14 named storms, seven of which become hurricanes, with three of those categorized as major hurricanes. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions support a 90 percent probability of an above-normal season this year, NOAA said, with a 10 percent likelihood that the season will be near-normal and a negligible chance for it to be below-normal.

Hurricane season lasts from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring from August to October.

NOAA advises everyone to be aware of the risks and to prepare for threats such as damaging winds, heavy rainfall, storm surge and inland flooding, as well as to have an evacuation plan.

Of the named storms that have already caused significant impacts this year, Tropical Storm Alberto — which formed on June 17 — produced almost a foot of rain in New Mexico and Texas, triggering flash flooding.

Hurricane Beryl on July 1 was the earliest-forming Category-5 storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Beryl brought catastrophic damage and caused approximately 20 deaths in several Caribbean Islands and killed at least 25 more in Vermont, Texas and Louisiana.

“Hurricane Beryl broke multiple long-standing records in the Atlantic basin, and we’re continuing to see the climatological hallmarks of an active season,” said Matthew Rosencrans, the Climate Prediction Center’s lead hurricane season forecaster, in the press release. “Sea surface temperatures remain abnormally high, and La Niña is still expected to emerge during the hurricane season, so the time to prepare is now.”

Factors that could influence a “remarkably active” Atlantic Ocean basin hurricane season this year include sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean being warmer-than-average, weaker trade winds in the tropical Atlantic, reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced monsoon in west Africa.

The conditions are predicted to persist into the fall. Notably, tropical storm development was prevented during parts of midsummer by dry Saharan air, but it is anticipated that this will subside in August.

A continuing climate factor affecting the Atlantic basin is the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation’s continued warm phase, which appeared again in 1995 and has since been supporting more active hurricane seasons.

“Another factor this year is the possibility of La Niña developing in the coming months. Indicative of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial regions of the eastern Pacific Ocean, La Niña can further weaken the wind shear over the Atlantic Basin, which enables storms to develop and intensify,” NOAA said.