Mississippi River Nears Historic Lows, Putting Grain Exports at Risk

An important stretch of the mighty Mississippi River is getting mighty dry, just in time for the busiest grain export season in the country.

According to the National Weather Service, this week water levels on part of the lower Mississippi came within inches of a record low, and conditions are expected to continue as grain export season kicks off, reported Reuters.

Low water levels on the river have caused shippers of soybean and corn exports to have to lighten their loads to keep vessels from running aground, as well as reduce how many barges they pull at once to be able to navigate the more narrow shipping channel.

“What happens is if we don’t get a lot of rainfall in the upper parts of the Midwest, that’s really where all the flow comes from,” Jeff Graschel, Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center hydrologist, told FOX Weather. “By the time the Ohio and the Mississippi Rivers come together, that’s about 90% of the water that comes down to part of the lower part of the Mississippi River.”

Since the beginning of September, parts of the Mississippi have been closed more than 20 times, Reuters reported. According to the U.S. Coast Guard, 36 or more vessels have been reported to have run aground.

On Thursday, a reading of the river in Memphis, Tennessee, was minus-10.62 feet, the National Weather Service said.

The most recent forecast predicts the Mississippi will stay below ten feet until at least the middle of October, which would mean a point between the Midwest heavy production areas and terminals on the Gulf Coast, where about 60 percent of grain exports leave the U.S., would be gridlocked.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey and NOAA, across almost 400 miles of the Mississippi, from the start of the Ohio River to Jackson, water gauges are at or below critical levels, reported CNN.

“We’re going to need a pretty significant period of wet weather across the basin,” Katie Dedeaux, a National Weather Service hydrologist in Memphis, told CNN. “It’s not going to be an overnight thing.”

Low water levels on the Mississippi have caused freight costs to be the highest since historic lows last year caused U.S. grain to be less competitive globally, Reuters reported.

“October’s not normally a robust precipitation month, and if we’re here already… it’s a real cause for concern,” said Mike Steenhoek, Soy Transportation Coalition executive director, as reported by Reuters.

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center is forecasting improvement in the long-term, though not complete elimination of drought conditions across the Mississippi Valley, CNN reported. El Niño might help provide relief as well, as an El Niño frequently means increased precipitation in the Southern U.S.