Quantcast

Key Trends to Watch at COP23

Climate
Shutterstock

By Jake Schmidt

It has been almost two years since world leaders agreed to the historic Paris agreement. Since then a lot has changed (both positive and negative). As leaders meet in Bonn, Germany for the next round of international climate negotiations there will be several key issues on the table. This meeting will set the tone for how leaders will come together in the era of President Trump and show that they are prepared to carry forward climate action.


Here are four key themes to watch at COP 23 (the 23rd Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC):

1. U.S. Climate Action Continues Despite President Trump

While President Trump has announced his intention to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, we've witnessed a resounding revolt in the U.S. to that decision (as our new issue brief documents) by Governors, Mayors, business leaders and citizens. States are committing to expand renewable energy, energy efficiency, and cleaner transportation. Mayors are committing to go to power their cities with 100 percent renewable energy and are finding ways to use energy more efficiently. Business leaders are committing to power their companies with 100 percent renewable energy and to ensure that their supply-chains are helping solve climate change, not make it worse.

At the climate conference, we will see a much larger contingent of U.S. sub-national leaders than typically comes to these meetings. They are showing up in force with one clear message: Trump may be trying to pull the U.S. out of the Paris agreement, but we are still in and committed to helping deliver on America's climate targets.

2. Countries Are Acting at Home

Key countries are showing that they aren't just waiting for the future to implement new actions to reduce their emissions and meet their Paris targets. While not all countries are yet on track to meet their targets, we have seen noticeable progress in some of the world's biggest emitting countries. Here are some examples (from our new issue briefs on key countries):

  • China has made significant progress towards its Paris targets. Coal consumption has remained relatively flat since its peak in 2013, and China's wind and solar energy deployment continue to grow at the fastest pace in the world.
  • India is on track to achieve and exceed its Paris climate commitments. In just one year, from 2016 to 2017, India increased its renewable energy capacity by 11.3 gigawatts (GW)—making critical progress towards its target to install 100 GW of solar, 60 GW wind, and 15 GW of biogas by 2022.
  • Mexico has been making progress on climate change policies both domestically and internationally, but the country must increase its efforts to transition away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy resources if it is to meet its target.
  • Japan needs to raise the ambition of its emissions reduction target and stop its rapid expansion of new coal power plants.
  • Canada unveiled the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change—Canada's first truly comprehensive climate action plan. However, enhanced climate policies are still needed to fulfill Canada's international obligations.
  • European Union is making progress towards its target through its 2030 climate and energy framework. While member states' carbon targets for 2030 are a step in the right direction, more action is needed to ensure the EU's target is realized and even overachieved.
  • Brazil has put forward some actions to help meet this target, but recent political developments in the country have led to a spike in deforestation rates and threats to protected areas, which may hamper national progress in mitigation.

And these actions are starting to show up in global emissions data. Prior to 2014, global emissions of carbon dioxide had been growing at a significant pace—adding roughly 0.7 gigatons of carbon dioxide (GtCO2) per year between 2005 and 2014 (with some occasional annual variation). But between 2014 and 2016, these emissions have remained essentially flat.

3. Paris Agreement "Rulebook" Matters a Great Deal

The Paris agreement established the essential foundations for how the world is going to advance international climate action for decades to come. Critical to its continued success will be ensuring that the "rulebook" for the Paris agreement helps to ensure that countries meet their targets and creates incentives for countries to beat their targets. Countries agreed to finalize the details of the Paris rulebook next year, so this year's meeting needs to ensure strong progress towards building a system of strong rules to help ensure that the promise of the Paris agreement is translated into reality in the years ahead. This includes making significant progress in Bonn towards defining rules around:

  • The detailed information that countries will provide as they announce future targets so that we can be sure that we fully understand the environmental implications of their new targets.

4. More Needs to Be Done: The Paris Targets Are the Floor, Not the Ceiling of Ambition

While significant progress is being made by many key countries to meet their target, stronger action will be needed in the coming years if we are going to be on a safer climate trajectory. A recent report from U.N. Environment states it clearly: "there is an urgent need for accelerated short-term action and enhanced longer-term national ambition, if the goals of the Paris Agreement are to remain achievable." Recognizing this dynamic, the Paris agreement created a dynamic process for countries to adopt more aggressive commitments starting in 2020. We were confident after Paris that countries would find that they could commit to strengthened targets in the coming years. Countries will need to be prepared to announce even stronger targets in the years to come. There are emerging positive signs that some key countries will be in a position to deliver even greater ambition than they promised in 2015.

Jake Schmidt directs the Natural Resources Defense Council's International program with a team of experts and partners working on climate change, clean energy, biogems, and sustainable development in India, Latin America, Canada, and at the international level.

EcoWatch Daily Newsletter

Pexels

By Gavin Van De Walle, MS, RD

Medium-chain triglyceride (MCT) oil and coconut oil are fats that have risen in popularity alongside the ketogenic, or keto, diet.

Read More Show Less
Pexels

By Bijal Trivedi

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released a report on Nov. 13 that describes a list of microorganisms that have become resistant to antibiotics and pose a serious threat to public health. Each year these so-called superbugs cause more than 2.8 million infections in the U.S. and kill more than 35,000 people.

Read More Show Less
Sponsored
Rool Paap / Flickr / CC BY 2.0

By Franziska Spritzler, RD, CDE

Inflammation can be good or bad depending on the situation.

Read More Show Less

By Joe Vukovich

Under the guise of responding to consumer complaints that today's energy- and water-efficient dishwashers take too long, the Department of Energy has proposed creating a new class of dishwashers that wouldn't be subject to any water or energy efficiency standards at all. The move would not only undermine three decades of progress for consumers and the environment, it is based on serious distortions of fact regarding today's dishwashers.

Read More Show Less

By Emily Moran

If you have oak trees in your neighborhood, perhaps you've noticed that some years the ground is carpeted with their acorns, and some years there are hardly any. Biologists call this pattern, in which all the oak trees for miles around make either lots of acorns or almost none, "masting."

Read More Show Less
Sponsored

By Catherine Davidson

Tashi Yudon peeks out from behind a net curtain at the rooftops below and lets out a sigh, her breath frosting on the windowpane in front of her.

Some 700 kilometers away in the capital city Delhi, temperatures have yet to dip below 25 degrees Celsius, but in Spiti there is already an atmosphere of impatient expectation as winter settles over the valley.

Read More Show Less

The Dog Aging Project at the University of Washington is looking to recruit 10,000 dogs to study for the next 10 years to see if they can improve the life expectancy of man's best friend and their quality of life, as CNN reported.

Read More Show Less
Warragamba Dam on Oct. 23 in Sydney, Australia. Sydney's dams have been less than 50 percent full as drought conditions continue across New South Wales. Brook Mitchell / Getty Images

While Sydney faced "catastrophic fire danger" for the first time earlier this week, and nearly 130 wildfires continue to burn in New South Wales and Queensland, Sydney now faces another problem; it's running out of water.

Read More Show Less