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It's Time to Jump on the Train to the Future: All Aboard the Low Carbon Express
Six weeks from the Paris climate summit, this was the week that incumbent fossil interests pulled back from their long-held line of defense, the argument that reliance on coal and oil was essential for global prosperity, growth and stability, and that climate risks would simply have to be endured. Instead two powerful forces seem poised to sweep the global community towards a potential solution to the climate crisis.
The first game-changer is the now seemingly inexorable shift in the economics of clean energy and renewables. The second was the decision taken after the Copenhagen debacle to abandon the top down rationing approach of the first 15 years of climate diplomacy, replacing it with a bottom-up, bidding in approach ratifying rather than forcing emerging communities of interest.
Photo credit: Shutterstock
As momentum builds for Paris, coal and oil companies, and their historic utility and automotive partners, are abandoning their 20 year insistence that no alternative to fossils exists. The two largest auto manufacturers, Toyota and Volkswagen, declared in a single week that the future belongs to electric cars, with Toyota giving a date for the end of the internal combustion era, 2050.
BP’s Chief Economist warned that, given global climate concerns, it was unlikely that even existing reserves of oil would be fully exploited, much less “the new discoveries which are being made all the time or of the vast resources of fossil fuels not yet booked as reserves.”
Ten of the globe’s biggest power companies, representing 30 percent of global electricity generation, issued a declaration asking for the Paris COP to “accelerate the development and deployment worldwide of energy efficiency measures and of innovative technologies with effective policies.” Many were low carbon generators like Electricite de France and Hydro-Quebec, but historically coal dominated American Electric Power signed up as well.
In another configuration, 14 major multi-national giants, including coal mining behemoths BHP and Billiton, oil giants Shell and BP, Alcoa, #1 cement producer Lafarge, plus a number of lower carbon utilities and tech companies, called for the Paris Agreement to embrace long-term policy certainty, transparency, competitive markets and carbon pricing.
Most startlingly, the national oil companies of Saudi Arabia and Mexico joined eight other oil producers in an Oil and Gas Climate Initiative which declared “Our shared ambition is for a 2 degree Celsius future … Over the coming years we will collectively strengthen our actions and investments to contribute to reducing the greenhouse gas intensity of the global energy mix,” and called on the world community to embrace a Paris agreement which would advance that goal.
So what’s going on? Most likely the companies themselves do not quite agree—or perhaps know—how far they will pull back from their historic positions before counter-attacking again the emerging clean energy transition. U.S. coal and oil producers are spectacularly absent from this new consensus, with Exxon Mobil responding to Congressional demand for Justice Department fraud investigations into its climate denial financing by clinging to its previous blunt riposte that it was not going “to fake it” on climate change—the world would have to live through it. Do U.S. companies see the world differently—maybe? But as likely they are afraid to offend their Congressional Republican allies, who desperately want to keep climate change as a partisan wedge issue.
And not all the signers have changed their stripes. AEP, for example, is still trying to persuade the Ohio Public Utility Commission to approve a rate-payer subsidy to guarantee profits at its aging fleet of coal fired power plants.
By why is Big Carbon and its allies retreating now?
Perhaps because they see no choice.
This same week opened with the Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) regional summit at a stunningly refurbished old brewery in the City of London. I told my opening panel that the forthcoming 21st Conference of the Parties (COP 21 in UN jargon) will make as much progress as the previous 20 put together. And the question put to the final panel by the moderator is whether or not I am right—a query they deftly evade.
But the intervening two days drive home the likelihood of success in Paris. Even with Europe clean energy investment lagging with its overall economy, on-shore wind now provides the cheapest electrons available in both Britain and Germany.
Europe’s slump is partly driven by a transition pains moving from high cost mechanisms like feed-in-tariffs more efficient tools like reverse auctions.
And the massive European investments from 2010-2013 shaved off the lucrative peak demand loads which made solar panels so lucrative. But having done so, Europe is teed up for the world’s next big task. Even at today’s investment levels, by 2040 a huge fraction of global power will come from variable renewables (wind and solar): Germany 77 percent, China 37 percent, Mexico 32 percent, India 32 percent. (The U.S., BNEF projects, lags at 24 percent because of cheap gas. I think America will in fact catch up).
But this vast influx of clean electrons creates a new investment need: storage and connected transmission to stabilize power supplies and integrate zero cost but variable supply electrons—Europe now becomes the test bed for this phase of the clean energy transition.
Elsewhere clean energy marches on. While the details matter, wind and solar will become cheaper than new build coal and gas everywhere. Michael Liebrich in his keynote flashes a telling quote from Bill Koch: “The coal business in the U.S has kind of died, so we’re out of the coal business,” and points out that compared to 2013, 2015 investment in coal has dropped a stunning 75 percent.
Or here’s India for example:
As a result, BNEF projects that renewables get most of the money:
And even as the raw economics of low-carbon energy are on display here, so too the assertive role of cities, states and companies in embracing clean energy innovation is changing the politics of Paris. The Compact of Mayors has passed the 200 city mark, encompassing almost 4 percent of the world’s population.
These two forces—clean energy’s growing affordability edge, and the bottom up pressure on national governments from cities and the business community—means that fossil fuel interests could longer prevent climate progress simply by leveraging their sheer size to freeze nation state’s from accelerating the shift to the future. Stephen Harper’s government in Canada refused to embrace climate progress, but Canada’s cities—Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton—are racing forward, as are its major provinces—Quebec, Ontario, British Columbia and—very soon, my intelligence suggests, even Alberta. (Now Harper is gone).
Set against these two positive drivers a highly resistant, incumbent fossil fuel complex remains determined to hold on to its market share as long as it can. Coal and Oil have withdrawn from their untenable “never” position. Their next battle ground lies in “when.” The G20 commitment this spring was to decarbonize by “the need of the century.” Climate science has a different calendar—fossils must essentially be gone by 2050. That extra 50 years is, to coal and oil, worth fighting for—and natural gas is oil’s alternative of choice. Their secret weapon? Ever lower prices. Liebrich points out that while the pace of technological progress for wind and solar has been dramatic, so too has been improvements in shale drilling for oil and natural gas.
“People believe that the normal trend is for fossils to get more expensive with occasional dips. But it’s more the norm for them to get cheaper in real terms, with intermittent spikes.” And Liebrich warns that the big losers from climate progress—nations whose economies rely on fossil fuel exports, the Saudi Arabia’s, Venezuela’s, Russia’s and Australia’s of the world—have yet to reveal their back-up strategy.
So price alone will not sweep renewables and clean energy to dominance—it will take the active engagement of energy consumers, whether they are cities, companies or publics. After all, for energy consumers, stranding fossil fuel assets is a big win—because it means something cheaper and better has emerged. So while carbon exporting nations and the fossil fuel producers allied with them remain powerful, their role going forward is clearly defensive—retreat they will, but our challenge is to make that retreat a rout.
This summer is only a start, and Paris will only be a milepost—but it is a very strong start. It is a stunning shift from Copenhagen that 190 nations covering 90 percent of current carbon emissions have now submitted their national emission reduction pledges—some shockingly ambitious, some limp and lame, a few perhaps bogus—but the expectation of climate action is now global, not just confined to the U.S., the EU and Japan. This matters. Johan Rockstrom, a climate scientist who pessimistically argued in 2009 that it was almost too late to pull back from the climate brink, has now concluded that the story is turning around. "We have a paradox unique to our era. On a scientific basis there is more reason to be nervous than ever before. But at the same time there has never before been so much reason for hope.”
There is a palpable sense that the train to the future is a low carbon express, and you need to get on it before it leaves the station.
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By Tom Duszynski
The coronavirus is certainly scary, but despite the constant reporting on total cases and a climbing death toll, the reality is that the vast majority of people who come down with COVID-19 survive it. Just as the number of cases grows, so does another number: those who have recovered.
In mid-March, the number of patients in the U.S. who had officially recovered from the virus was close to zero. That number is now in the tens of thousands and is climbing every day. But recovering from COVID-19 is more complicated than simply feeling better. Recovery involves biology, epidemiology and a little bit of bureaucracy too.
How does your body fight off COVID-19?<p>Once a person is exposed the coronavirus, the body starts producing <a href="https://www.mblintl.com/products/what-are-antibodies-mbli/" target="_blank">proteins called antibodies to fight the infection</a>. As these <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/" target="_blank">antibodies start to successfully contain the virus</a> and keep it from replicating in the body, symptoms usually begin to lessen and you start to feel better. Eventually, if all goes well, your immune system will completely destroy all of the virus in your system. A person who was infected with and survived a virus with no long-term health effects or disabilities has "recovered."</p><p>On average, a person who is infected with SARS-CoV-2 will feel ill for about seven days from the onset of symptoms. Even after symptoms disappear, there still may be small amounts of the virus in a patient's system, and they should stay <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html" target="_blank">isolated for an additional three days</a> to ensure they have truly <a href="https://health.usnews.com/conditions/articles/coronavirus-recovery-what-to-know" target="_blank">recovered and are no longer infectious</a>.</p>
What about immunity?<p>In general, once you have recovered from a viral infection, your body will keep cells called lymphocytes in your system. These cells "remember" viruses they've previously seen and can react quickly to fight them off again. If you are exposed to a virus you have already had, your antibodies will likely stop the virus before it starts causing symptoms. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5114%2Fceji.2018.77390" target="_blank">You become immune</a>. This is the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK27158/" target="_blank">principle behind many vaccines</a>.</p><p>Unfortunately, immunity isn't perfect. For many viruses, like mumps, immunity can wane over time, leaving you <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160421145747.htm" target="_blank">susceptible to the virus in the future</a>. This is why you need to get revaccinated – those "booster shots" – occasionally: to prompt your immune system to make more antibodies and memory cells.</p><p>Since this coronavirus is so new, scientists still don't know whether people who recover from COVID-19 are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html" target="_blank">immune to future infections of the virus</a>. Doctors are finding antibodies in ill and recovered patients, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html" target="_blank">that indicates the development of immunity</a>. But the question remains how long that immunity will last. Other coronaviruses like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25685" target="_blank">SARS and MERS produce an immune response</a> that will protect a person at least for a short time. I would suspect the same is true of SARS-CoV-2, but the research simply hasn't been done yet to say so definitively.</p>
Why have so few people officially recovered in the US?<p>This is a dangerous virus, so the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is being extremely careful when deciding what it means to recover from COVID-19. Both medical and testing criteria must be met before a person is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html" target="_blank">officially declared recovered</a>.</p><p>Medically, a person must be fever-free without fever-reducing medications for three consecutive days. They must show an improvement in their other symptoms, including reduced coughing and shortness of breath. And it must be at least seven full days <a href="https://health.usnews.com/conditions/articles/coronavirus-recovery-what-to-know" target="_blank">since the symptoms began</a>.</p><p>In addition to those requirements, the CDC guidelines say that a person must test negative for the coronavirus twice, with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html" target="_blank">tests taken at least 24 hours apart</a>.</p><p>Only then, if both the symptom and testing conditions are met, is a person officially considered recovered by the CDC.</p><p>This second testing requirement is likely why there were so few official recovered cases in the U.S. until late March. Initially, there was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-test-shortages-face-masks-swabs.html" target="_blank">massive shortage of testing in the U.S.</a> So while many people were certainly recovering over the last few weeks, this could not be officially confirmed. As the country enters the height of the pandemic in the coming weeks, focus is still on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html" target="_blank">testing those who are infected</a>, not those who have likely recovered.</p><p>Many more people are being tested now that states and private companies have begun <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html" target="_blank">producing and distributing tests</a>. As <a href="https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200406/coronavirus-in-ohio-from-its-rocky-start-testing-for-covid-19-slowly-ramping-up" target="_blank">the number of available tests increases</a> and the pandemic eventually slows in the country, more testing will be available for those who have appeared to recover. As people who have already recovered are tested, the appearance of any new infections will help researchers learn <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/24/we-need-smart-coronavirus-testing-not-just-more-testing/" target="_blank">how long immunity can be expected to last</a>.</p>
Once a person has recovered, what can they do?<p>Knowing whether or not people are immune to COVID-19 after they recover is going to determine what individuals, communities and society at large can do going forward. If scientists can show that recovered patients are immune to the coronavirus, then a person who has recovered could in theory <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/30/21186822/immunity-to-covid-19-test-coronavirus-rt-pcr-antibody" target="_blank">help support the health care system</a> by caring for those who are infected.</p><p>Once communities pass the peak of the epidemic, the number of new infections will decline, while the number of <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/china-says-passed-peak-coronavirus-epidemic-covid-19-1491863" target="_blank">recovered people will increase</a>. As these trends continue, the risk of transmission will fall. Once the risk of transmission has fallen enough, community-level isolation and social distancing orders will begin to relax and businesses will start to reopen. Based on what other countries have gone through, it will be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w" target="_blank">months until the risk of transmission is low</a> in the U.S.</p><p>But before any of this can happen, the U.S. and the world need to make it through the peak of this pandemic. Social distancing works to slow the spread of infectious diseases and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/what-you-can-do.html" target="_blank">is working for COVID-19</a>. Many people will <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank">need medical help to recover</a>, and social distancing will slow this virus down and give people the best chance to do so.</p>
By Elizabeth Claire Alberts
The future for the world's oceans often looks grim. Fisheries are set to collapse by 2048, according to one study, and 8 million tons of plastic pollute the ocean every year, causing considerable damage to delicate marine ecosystems. Yet a new study in Nature offers an alternative, and more optimistic view on the ocean's future: it asserts that the entire marine environment could be substantially rebuilt by 2050, if humanity is able to step up to the challenge.
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By Zulfikar Abbany
Bread has been a source of basic nutrition for centuries, the holy trinity being wheat, maize and rice. It has also been the reason for a lot of innovation in science and technology, from millstones to microbiological investigations into a family of single-cell fungi called Saccharomyces.
Chemical leavening<p>If you like a little heft in your loaf, you will need a leavening agent.</p><p>For those short on time, you can use baking soda. That's a chemical compound of sodium bicarbonate mixed with potassium bitartrate, or cream of tartar.</p><p>Soda breads have their traditions in parts of eastern and central Europe, and in Ireland and Scotland, with Melrose loaves and "farls."</p><p>They can taste a bit bland, though, and are often considered only as an emergency solution on Sundays. No disrespect intended: They taste just fine fresh from the oven.</p><p>Whether it's chemical or more "natural," leavening relies largely on the production of carbon dioxide.</p><p>When you mix an acid, such as vinegar, buttermilk, yogurt or apple cider, with an alkaline compound like baking soda, you get CO2. That CO2 creates bubbles, which in turn capture steam in the oven and allow a bread to rise.</p><p><span></span>But it's better with yeast. Tastes better, too. It just takes more time. </p>
What is yeast?<p>There are yeasts all around us — on grains, in the air, in biofuels. It even lives inside us, but that's not always a good thing.</p><p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1090575/pdf/1471-2334-5-22.pdf" target="_blank">Candida yeast</a> can cause infections of the skin, feet, mouth, penis or vagina if it builds up too much in the body.</p><p>One of the most common yeasts, however, is <em>Saccharomyces cerevisiae</em>. That's <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/an-early-beer-archaeologists-tap-ground-at-worlds-oldest-brewery/a-45480731" target="_blank">"brewer's"</a> or "baker's" yeast.</p><p>You can get fresh baker's yeast, often in 42-gram (1.48-ounce) cubes, or as dried yeast (quick action or active, which requires rehydration) in a sachet of 7 grams.</p><p>There's little difference: One is compressed and the other is dehydrated and granulated. But they do the same thing, essentially. </p><p>Some commercial yeast producers add molasses and other nutrients. But natural yeast has plenty of useful nutrients in it anyway, including B group vitamins, so who knows whether it's good or necessary to add them. </p>
How does yeast work?<p>When you mix flour, yeast and water, you set off a veritable chain reaction. Enzymes in the wheat convert starch into sugar. And the yeast creates enzymes of its own to convert those sugars into a form it can absorb.</p><p>The yeast "feeds" on the sugars to create carbon dioxide and alcohol. The yeast burps and farts, releasing gases into the mix, and that creates bubbles to trap CO2. </p><p>It's a vital fermentation process that breaks down the gluten in the flour and helps make your bread more digestible.</p><p>The yeast cells split and reproduce, generating lactic and carbonic acid, raising the temperature and ultimately adding flavor to the mix.</p><p>The longer you leave the yeast to do its thing, the better for your bread. Time is more important than the amount of yeast. </p><p>In fact, that's an enduring question — how much yeast? I'll use 20 grams fresh yeast for 500 grams of flour. Others say that's enough yeast for 1 kilo. If you are converting a dry-yeast recipe to fresh yeast, some bakers advise tripling the weight. So, if a sachet of dried yeast is 7 grams, your fresh yeast is 21 grams.</p><p><span></span>But that also depends on the flours you are using, temperatures in the bowl and the room, and a host of other things. You'll just have to experiment and see. No number of books (and I've read a stack on bread) will help as much as trial and error.</p>
Wild yeast: Sourdough<p>So, good bread needs time. If you have a lot of time, why not move it up a notch and grow wild yeast — a sourdough starter — in your own home?</p><p>A sourdough starter is not to be mistaken (as it often is) for the leaven, or "mother," "sponge," or <em>levain</em>. That's more a second stage, a descendant of the starter. You take a scoop from your starter and add it to another flour and water mixture when you prepare the dough for a new loaf. </p><p>The sourdough process utilizes yeasts naturally present in flour and … yet more time. A longer fermentation process allows a richer lactic acid bacteria <em>lactobacilli</em> or LAB to evolve, and that can be healthy for your gut microbiome.</p><p>It's simple enough to start a sourdough starter. All you need is flour, warm water and time.</p><p>Some suggest equal measures of whole-grain flour and water at 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit), some say room temperature — just don't let the water exceed 40 C or the yeasts will die. Some suggest two parts flour to three parts water. But it's up to you whether you want a drier or wetter starter. You will know only through experimentation. </p><p>Some say you should filter tap water to remove chemicals like fluoride and avoid using water that's boiled and then cooled. Others say that really doesn't matter.</p><p>The main thing is, keep it clean and give it time. Days, weeks, months and years.</p>
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