Interactive Map Shows 96% of Americans Live in Counties Hit by Extreme Weather
Ninety six percent of Americans live in a county affected by at least one weather-related disaster in the last five years, according to new interactive map created by Environment America and Frontier Group using federal government data.
Scientists have confirmed that global warming is causing an increase in extreme weather around the world. A recent study published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society was even able to link at least 14 extreme weather events in 2014 to climate change. And last year, the World Bank warned in a report that extreme weather will be the "new climate normal" unless world leaders take immediate action.
“We used to think of climate change as a problem that would happen someday, somewhere,” said Anna Aurilio, director of Environment America’s Global Warming Solutions program. “But as this map helps demonstrate, global warming is happening now, and it’s already hitting close to home.”
Superstorm Sandy, California's drought, flooding in Texas and Oklahoma this past spring and most recently the flooding in South Carolina are all examples of the headline-grabbing extreme weather that has rocked the U.S. in recent years. But since September 2010, weather-related disasters were declared in all 50 states and Washington, DC, according to the online map.
And scientists predict that if global warming is left unchecked, extreme weather will only increase in frequency and intensity—more intense hurricanes, more heavy downpours, more flooding, more drought, more heat waves and more wildfires.
To create the interactive map, the researchers collected data from the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The map also includes case studies and personal stories from Americans impacted by extreme weather events across the country, says Environment America.
“The 2015 Memorial Day Weekend flood of the Blanco River was an unprecedented, historic, catastrophic event,” began the story from Scott from Wimberley, Texas, where deadly floods struck last spring. “I speak for many in saying that we’ve lost many personal possessions that can not be replaced; family photos, baby books, family heirlooms, furniture, a lot of our family history … gone forever.”
“The drought in California has hit every single resident hard. Living in Northern California, my family is one of those families struggling to reduce water from being wasted,” wrote Julia from Kensington, California. “I now also track the path of wildfires in Northern California hoping they can be stopped. Yet I watch them creep ever closer to my home and family. It’s hard to watch the state I love go through all of this at once.”
The map comes just weeks before world leaders convene in Paris for COP21 to try to reach an agreement to slash carbon emissions to keep warming below the dangerous two degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels. So far, more than 150 countries comprising 90 percent of the world’s pollution have already pledged reductions. A recent UN Framework Convention on Climate Change report found that the climate action plans (known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions or INDCs) will not be enough to avoid the worst impacts of warming alone, but they provide a significant foundation that can be built on.
The urgency of the crisis could not be any more apparent. Earlier this week the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) announced that greenhouse gas emissions have hit yet another record. This past spring the global average “crossed the 400 ppm barrier,” reports the WMO. March marked the first time ever that global carbon levels surpassed 400 ppm for an entire month. The UK's Met Office also reported earlier this week that for the first time global mean temperature at the Earth’s surface this year is set to reach one degree Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Still, many, including notable environmental activist Al Gore, remain positive about the upcoming talks. "I'm optimistic," said Gore in an interview this week with the Associated Press. "We're going to win this."
In more positive news, a new report this week from the International Energy Agency found that renewables will overtake coal as the largest power source globally in the 2030s. The report says, "there's a clear sign an energy transition is underway."
Environment America and Frontier Group hope this interactive map will "hit home" with Americans, as well as, international leaders on the need to act immediately to stop the worst effects of climate change. "To avoid even more devastating climate impacts,” said Aurilio, “we need our leaders to act boldly to slash carbon pollution and transition to 100 percent clean renewable energy.”
YOU MIGHT ALSO LIKE
Underwater Vertical Seaweed Farm Restores Our Oceans While Providing Food and Fuel Source
Exxon + 49 Other Big Polluters Set to Be Investigated for Causing Extreme Weather Events
Monsanto Handed ‘Double Whammy’ by Mexican Courts Over Planting GMOs
What’s Going on in Antarctica? Is the Ice Melting or Growing?
EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
It's unlikely that taking a swig of apple cider vinegar in the morning will significantly affect weight loss.
- 8 Reasons to Drink Lemon Water in the Morning - EcoWatch ›
- 6 Health Benefits of Apple Cider Vinegar, Backed by Science ... ›
By Derrick Z. Jackson
All over America, protesters have taken to the streets to protest the police murders of African Americans George Floyd in Minneapolis and Breonna Taylor in Louisville and the white vigilante lynching of African American Ahmed Aubrey in Brunswick, Georgia. Part of the news coverage has dwelled on the speculation that the protests will fuel a second wave of COVID-19. One infectious disease scientist, Trevor Bedford of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle, made the rough calculation that the protests could ultimately lead to between 15,000 and 50,000 overall coronavirus infections and between 50 to 500 deaths.
Police Contribute to COVID-19 Risk
<p>Those same masks worn by protesters were too often ripped off in agony as police around the nation chose to break up usually peaceful protests with tear gas and pepper spray. Researchers told National Public Radio that the gasping and violent coughing <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/05/870144402/tear-gassing-protesters-during-an-infectious-outbreak-called-a-recipe-for-disast" target="_blank">can project the virus of an infected person many feet</a>. Many of those gasping people were then herded into packed vans and sent to crowded jails.</p><p>The Army has <a href="https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25003867/" target="_blank">found</a> that tear gas training exercises make soldiers more susceptible to acute respiratory illnesses, and the increased risk of COVID-19 spread triggered by using tear gas is so high that Duke University researcher Sven Eric Jordt <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/05/870144402/tear-gassing-protesters-during-an-infectious-outbreak-called-a-recipe-for-disast" target="_blank">told</a> NPR, "Using it in the current situation with COVID-19 around is completely irresponsible."</p><p>The police also displayed more irresponsibility than the people they were supposed to control by often spurning face coverings for themselves and practicing no social distancing. Several New York City police officers <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/06/02/nypd-cops-ignore-directive-abandon-masks-during-protester-clashes/" target="_blank">told</a> the media that face coverings are too hot and difficult to breathe through while dealing with protesters. In Chattanooga, Tennessee, local and county policy said they did not wear face coverings because they hampered communication.</p><p>That did not wash with the Rev. Alaina Cobb of the Mercy Junction Justice and Peace Center. She <a href="https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2020/jun/03/protesters-question-lack-masks/524488/" target="_blank">said to the Chattanooga Times Free Press,</a> "We see once again the significance of the police's disregard for the health, safety and even lives of those who they feign they are here to protect."</p><p>The police actions mirrored political disregard around the nation for health, safety, and lives—especially those of black and brown people. Governors in many states ignored pleas not to reopen so quickly from mayors of cities whose populations are significantly of color and hard hit by COVID-19.</p><p>One of the most dramatic dismissals of the damage and continuing risk of COVID-19 to black people came a month ago in Mississippi, where Governor Tate Reeves <a href="https://voxpopulisphere.com/2020/05/16/michelle-d-holmes-m-d-re-opening-america/" target="_blank">announced</a> an aggressive reopening of close-contact gyms, hair salons, and barbershops on the same day the state hit a <a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/2020/05/08/watch-gov-reeves-coronavirus-crisis-mississippi/3095787001/" target="_blank">record high</a> in new cases. He could reopen with unspoken racial comfort as a white governor. Mississippi is 59 percent white, but <a href="https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race" target="_blank">52 percent</a> of the state's COVID-19 deaths have been suffered by African Americans, who are more vulnerable to the disease through a combination of poor prior health, congested living conditions, and riskier essential jobs.</p><p>As my epidemiologist wife Michelle D. Holmes pointed out in her own <a href="https://voxpopulisphere.com/2020/05/16/michelle-d-holmes-m-d-re-opening-america/" target="_blank">commentary</a> in Vox Populi, Reeves justified reopening by claiming that the economic damage was becoming as "disastrous" as the virus. Vigorously objecting to this equating of money with life was Chokwe Antar Lumumba, mayor of Mississippi's heavily black capital of Jackson. He said, "It's a bad decision to freeze economic progress, but a worse one to sacrifice human lives."</p>White Privilege Unmasked
<p>The rush back to business by Reeves and so many governors who have pursued aggressive openings gives a new expression of white privilege in America. In striking photographs from all over the country, predominately white crowds are <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/social-distancing-strictures-fall-away-as-crowds-gather-to-party-and-protest/2020/05/30/42df4d9c-a2a6-11ea-81bb-c2f70f01034b_story.html" target="_blank">packed</a> shoulder to shoulder, with few face coverings, at <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/31/sports/ace-speedway-north-carolina-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">raceways</a>, at Lake of the <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/destinations/2020/06/06/lake-ozarks-covid-cases-community-undeterred-reopening/3156993001/" target="_blank">Ozarks</a>, West Coast and East Coast beaches, and at the <a href="https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/05/30/go-baby-go-crowds-converge-space-coast-spacex-launch/5279246002/" target="_blank">launch</a> of SpaceX.</p><p>These photos showcase a kind of jolly version of the angry, all-white, and supremacist-influenced anti-lockdown protests at state capitols. The images amount to an open declaration that the pursuit of white happiness is an unalienable, unalterable right. It offers up a perverted version of America the Beautiful, where alabaster crowds beam, undimmed by COVID-19 tears from black and brown communities.</p>Shutting Up Every Scientist They Can
<p>The nation's cheerleader for this version of happiness is President Trump, who has overtly shunned mask wearing and social distancing. His administration gave a royal welcome to the coronavirus by <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/17/the-art-of-the-pandemic-how-donald-trump-walked-the-u-s-into-the-covid-19-era/" target="_blank">shuttering</a> most of the pandemic-warning apparatus built up by prior administrations. Now the White House is helping to assure a second wave by <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/white-house-tensions-with-cdc-spill-into-public-view-as-top-trump-adviser-criticizes-agency-response/2020/05/17/a4917896-9854-11ea-a282-386f56d579e6_story.html" target="_blank">shutting up</a> every scientist they can.</p><p>Chief among the silenced has been whistleblower Rick Bright, who <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/politics/rick-bright-coronavirus-whistleblower.html" target="_blank">said</a> he was removed from a top post combatting infectious threats because he told the administration it was <a href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/key-moments-from-hhs-whistleblower-rick-brights-testimony-on-coronavirus-response" target="_blank">moving</a> too slowly to stem the spread of the coronavirus. He warned a House hearing last month that, without a coordinated national response based in science, "the pandemic will get far worse."</p><p>It appears that the silencing of science is also now muting one of the few voices America could count on for sane public health advice during the now-evaporated coronavirus task force press briefings in which Trump ranted about dubious virus remedies, personally attacked reporters, and self-congratulated himself on closing borders despite the dead. CNN <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/01/politics/fauci-trump-two-weeks/index.html" target="_blank">reported</a> on June 1 that infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said he had not talked with Trump since May 18. In a June 1 <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/01/anthony-fauci-on-covid-19-reopenings-vaccines-and-moving-at-warp-speed/" target="_blank">interview</a> with STAT News, Fauci expanded on this, saying:</p><p>"We used to have task force meetings every single day, including Saturday and Sunday, and about 75 percent of the time after the task force meeting, we'd meet with the president. So, I was meeting with him four times a week back, a month or so ago. But as you probably noticed, the task force meetings have not occurred as often lately. And certainly, my meetings with the president have been dramatically decreased."</p>COVID-19 Cases Increasing in Nearly Half of All States
<p>In the absence of federal leadership, not to mention science-based leadership, we find ourselves in the midst of a 50-state experiment, weaving a clashing quilt of regulations and timing in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html" target="_blank">opening up</a> shopping malls, restaurants, barbershops, beauty parlors, gyms, churches, and childcare facilities.</p><p>Universities—responsible for <a href="https://nces.ed.gov/fastfacts/display.asp?id=372#College_enrollment" target="_blank">20 million</a> young adults—are releasing their plans for fall re-openings that <a href="https://www.marketplace.org/2020/05/20/covid-19-college-campuses-reopening-online-classes/" target="_blank">display no consistency</a>, ranging from the Harvard School of Public Health and the California State University System remaining online to aggressive plans for in-person classes at schools such as Notre Dame and Purdue. Top college football teams are opening facilities, AMC Theaters says it will <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/09/business/coronavirus-amc-movie-theaters-reopening.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage" target="_blank">reopen</a> its cineplexes in July. The National Basketball Association, which jumpstarted the closure of mass events in mid-March by suspending the season, says it plans to resume its season at the end of July.</p><p>And on what public health evidence? Not much. Consider that:</p><ul><li>According to the June 11 <em>New York Times</em> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html" target="_blank">coronavirus map</a>, coronavirus cases are increasing in 20 states and Puerto Rico, based on 14-day trajectories;</li><li>According to the June 11 Johns Hopkins <a href="https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/new-cases-50-states" target="_blank">coronavirus map,</a> 21 states and Puerto Rico were seeing an increase, based on a three-day rolling average.</li><li>A June 8 <em>Washington Post</em> <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/14-states-puerto-rico-hit-their-highest-seven-day-average-new-covid-19-infections-since-june/" target="_blank">analysis</a> found that 14 states and Puerto Rico saw their highest-ever seven-day average of new cases in the pandemic. The states were: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Florida, Kentucky, New Mexico, North Carolina, Mississippi, Oregon, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah;</li><li>According to the June 10 version of The Atlantic's COVID-19 <a href="https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/" target="_blank">Tracking Project</a>, states "trending poorly" toward safe reopenings outnumber those "trending better" by a 3-to-1 margin. Only six states were trending better while 20 were trending poorly. The other states and the District of Columbia were in a muddled middle, making progress in decreasing infections, but still raising concern given their limited intensive care units and low testing levels;</li><li>And Columbia University infectious disease specialist Wafaa El-Sadr <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/california-and-some-other-states-see-coronavirus-cases-rise-11591540411" target="_blank">noted</a> to the Wall Street Journal that the national average of cases, which seem to be on a gradual downward trend, might be a dangerous illusion created by the few states that were hit hard early but since have made major progress in curbing COVID-19. "If you take out the impact of New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and so on, you'd have a much more worrisome picture of what's happening in the U.S.," El-Sadr said.</li></ul><p>No matter which tracking map you look at, the list of states most poorly controlling the virus are dominated by those which have aggressively relaxed COVID health protections and been most supportive of the Trump administration's drive to get back to business regardless of safety. In the <em>Atlantic</em> map, not a single Southern or Southwestern state shows a decreasing trend in the spread of disease. It is equally scary that the largest blue state in the country, California, is seeing new outbreaks as it begins to lift restrictions after being one of the first states to shut down.</p><p>Now that every state has reopened in some way, there are new outbreaks from California to the Jersey Shore and from Utah to Florida from <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/local/article243400791.html" target="_blank">family gatherings</a>, <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/08/us/jersey-shore-coronavirus-trnd/index.html" target="_blank">beach vacations</a>, <a href="https://www.courier-journal.com/story/news/local/2020/06/09/coronavirus-kentucky-17-clays-mill-baptist-church-members-infected/3164299001/" target="_blank">churches</a>, people going back to <a href="https://www.deseret.com/utah/2020/6/8/21284039/utahs-recent-spike-in-covid-19-cases-inevitable-but-no-cause-for-panic-epidemiologist-says" target="_blank">workplaces</a>, resumption of college <a href="https://www.kcra.com/article/more-universities-report-coronavirus-cases-in-athletics-programs-1/32793704" target="_blank">sports practices, </a>and factory food processing. In the purple swing state of North Carolina, state health secretary Mandy Cohen <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-latest-news-06-08-2020-11591604366" target="_blank">told</a> the Wall Street Journal on June 8: "These trends moving in the wrong direction are a signal we need to take very seriously."</p>A Texas-Sized Problem
<p>Even though there is plenty of emerging evidence that new outbreaks are spreading out into whiter parts of America, you would not know that from governors such as Greg Abbott of Texas.</p><p>Like other governors of states in which COVID-19 deaths of people of color outnumber those of white residents, Abbott is reopening Texas as though he can gerrymander the boundaries of the virus to protect privileged communities. We know that social distancing and face coverings offer the best tools we have to prevent the spread of the coronavirus without a vaccine. Despite how badly the White House botched the beginning of the pandemic, a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8_reference.pdf" target="_blank">study</a> released June 8 in the journal <em>Nature</em> found that state lockdowns still <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/08/shutdowns-prevented-60-million-coronavirus-infections-us-study-finds/" target="_blank">averted</a> some 60 million infections.</p><p>Nonetheless, despite Texas seeing a 53 percent increase in its rolling 14-day average number of virus cases as of June 10, Abbott <a href="https://dailytimes.com/promotions/article_69e42a14-a668-11ea-b60b-2be4980fc413.html" target="_blank">has announced</a> plans to allow Fourth of July celebrations, to let <a href="https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/cowboys/2020/06/03/gov-greg-abbott-says-professional-collegiate-stadiums-in-texas-can-operate-at-50-capacity/" target="_blank">sports stadiums</a> and retailers operate at 50 percent capacity, and to let restaurants serve meals at 75 percent capacity.</p><p>Abbott was quite clear in his statements that he has not taken in any of the science about <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/opinion/coronavirus-superspreaders.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200611&instance_id=19296&nl=the-morning&regi_id=61941902&segment_id=30654&te=1&user_id=4f40d98c4eef63a91e3d367c28db532b" target="_blank">potential superspreading of the virus from large gatherings</a>. He also seems to take perverse comfort in his reopening based on his perception of where the virus hits hardest, citing jails, nursing homes, and meatpacking plants.</p><p>The Midwest Center for Investigative Reporting <a href="https://investigatemidwest.org/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19s-impact-on-meatpacking-workers-and-industry/" target="_blank">says</a> that as of June 9, at least 24,000 meatpacking workers and family members have been infected with COIVD-19, with at least 86 worker deaths. "We have the ability to contain those hot spots while opening up Texas for business," <a href="https://dailytimes.com/promotions/article_69e42a14-a668-11ea-b60b-2be4980fc413.html" target="_blank">Abbott said.</a> Translated, Abbott's statement amounts to a plan to contain the virus to communities that are disproportionally made up of people of color. While he didn't bother to say it, the fact is that inmates, meatpackers, and nursing home <a href="https://healthworkforce.ucsf.edu/sites/healthworkforce.ucsf.edu/files/REPORT-2018.HWRC_diversity_.4-18.pdf" target="_blank">staff</a> all tend to be disproportionately black and brown.</p>Failing to Prioritize Justice and Public Health
<p>The major question now is what will come of an America that is smoldering in the photographed displays of white privilege, the pillaging of science by the Trump administration, and an uprising of black grievance.</p><p>The uprisings started with police killings but have also reminded us that racism itself is a fatal virus that has been with us far longer than COVID-19. Back in 2005, former Surgeon General David Satcher <a href="https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/pdf/10.1377/hlthaff.24.2.459" target="_blank">estimated</a> that 83,500 black lives a year could be saved by eliminating health disparities. In the COVID-19 crisis, the APM Research Lab <a href="https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race" target="_blank">estimates </a>that at least 14,400 African Americans would still be alive if they died from the virus at the same rate as white Americans.</p><p>One source of those disparities—one tied to the COVID-19 crisis—is <a href="https://prospect.org/greennewdeal/toxic-injustices-little-village-chicago/" target="_blank">environmental injustice</a>. Even as protesters marched in the streets, President Trump signed an <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/eo-accelerating-nations-economic-recovery-covid-19-emergency-expediting-infrastructure-investments-activities/" target="_blank">executive order</a> last week waiving environmental reviews for fossil fuel facilities and pipelines, mining, and other toxic industries. People of color <a href="https://prospect.org/greennewdeal/toxic-injustices-little-village-chicago/" target="_blank">live disproportionately</a> close to lung-penetrating particles and poisonous fumes from industrial plants, increasing their vulnerability to the worst effects of COVID-19.</p><p>At a June 9 House hearing, Mustafa Santiago Ali, vice president of environmental justice at the National Wildlife Federation and former senior adviser for environmental justice at the Environmental Protection Agency, tied the protests and environmental justice together. According to The Hill, he <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/501894-in-trump-response-to-coronavirus-lawmakers-and-activists-see" target="_blank">said,</a> "Black communities are dealing with the systemic racism that has infected the policing in our communities that is literally choking us to death. The rolling back of environmental rules and regulations has us gasping for air due to the cumulative public health impacts from the burning of fossil fuels," he <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/501894-in-trump-response-to-coronavirus-lawmakers-and-activists-see" target="_blank">said,</a> according to The Hill. "When we say, 'I Can't Breathe,' we literally can't breathe."</p>The Looming Second Wave
<p>A lot more people will not be breathing if we get a second wave of disease anything like the fall resurgence of the 1918 flu <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-commemoration/three-waves.htm" target="_blank">pandemic</a>, which killed most of the 675,000 Americans who perished from the virus. If we do, this country will have no one to blame but itself. The widespread abandonment of state lockdowns began a month ago even though just one-quarter of all states were <a href="https://blog.ucsusa.org/derrick-jackson/the-push-to-relax-covid-19-protections-exposes-age-old-racial-wounds" target="_blank">reporting</a> a decline in COVID-19 caseloads and even fewer had robust virus testing programs in place.</p><p>The US reopenings are proceeding even though the Imperial College of London has found "little evidence that the epidemic is under control in the majority of states." They are proceeding even though Harvard University global health expert Ashish Jha <a href="https://www.npr.org/2020/06/10/873624522/as-cities-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-reopen-red-flags-emerge-in-other-areas" target="_blank">told</a> National Public Radio on June 10, "It's stunning to me that we have just decided it's OK for tens of thousands of Americans to die. And we aren't going to do what we know we can do to prevent those deaths. And that is, to me, unconscionable."</p><p>They are proceeding even though Irwin Redlener, director of Columbia University's National Center for Disaster Preparedness, recently <a href="https://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/dr-redlener-disaster-for-states-to-reopen-without-enough-testing-83884613632" target="_blank">told</a> MSNBC that without strong testing and tracing, it is a "disaster for the country to have these various states opening. We should be reconsidering this right now. If it was up to me, I'd put a halt to this reopening."</p><p>That makes it ludicrous to spend a whole lot of time speculating about the spread of COVID-19 from protesters. The far greater concern is the rampage on science and public health now underway by governors and the White House.</p><p>To effectively combat the pandemic, we need a just response guided by science and accurate data. But in this terrible moment when Americans have taken to the streets in droves because a police officer put a fatal knee to the neck of a black man, tens of thousands more Americans now risk of dying because the states and the White House have applied a figurative knee to the neck of our public health.</p>- Fauci Warns Bad Second Wave of Coronavirus Could Hit U.S. ... ›
- Coronavirus: When Will the Second Wave Hit? - EcoWatch ›
By Anurag Papolu
To better predict climate change, scientists need accurate models which predict the behavior of many natural processes. One of these is the melting of Arctic sea ice, which requires expensive and difficult data collection in the Arctic.
By Julia Ries
COVID-19 cases may be on the rise in at least 20 states, but some doctors suspect the severity of the disease may be decreasing a bit.
No Evidence the Virus is Mutating
<p>Health experts say there's no evidence the new coronavirus has mutated into a weaker version.</p><p><a href="https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1" target="_blank">Research</a> has shown the virus mutated already, which is normal for a virus, but there's no proof it's going through more mutations affecting the severity of the disease it causes.</p><p>"I don't think we have evidence of this yet," says <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/doctors/heidi_zapata/" target="_blank">Dr. Heidi Zapata</a>, a Yale Medicine infectious disease doctor and assistant professor at the medical school. "The study concluded that most of the mutations were largely neutral and did not affect its lethality."</p><p><a href="https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/" target="_blank">Dr. Amesh Adalja</a>, an infectious disease physician and senior scholar for Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, suspects the changes in the new coronavirus's behavior are caused by multiple factors — the first of which is testing.</p><p>At the start of the pandemic, we hadn't yet ramped up testing, and there were delays between when people developed symptoms and when they were tested.</p><p>Now it's become routine to test people for COVID-19 earlier in the disease process.</p><p>We're also testing more people with milder symptoms who may have lower viral loads, according to Adalja.</p><p>"We are getting much better at testing, and we test much quicker now," Adalja said.</p><p>Another theory is that people may be getting infections with lower-infecting doses of the virus.</p><p>With physical distancing, people's exposure to infectious viral material is likely much less than it was before safety guidelines were mandated.</p><p>The amount of the virus a person is exposed to when they get an infection might influence their later viral loads, according to Adalja.</p><p>"It may be that people are getting infected with a lower amount of virus now because so much social distancing has been put into place," Adalja said.</p>Could the Weather Have a Role?
<p>One of the bigger questions about COVID-19, especially as we dive into summer, is if the warmer weather will affect transmission. It's a possibility infectious disease experts have toyed at for months.</p><p>Zapata says it's definitely a possibility that environmental factors — like ultraviolet light, heat, and humidity — are influencing the virus's behavior. For example, influenza becomes more transmissible during the winter months due to the cold, dry air.</p><p>However, we still don't know for certain how weather and the environment will affect the new coronavirus, Zapata notes.</p><p>Early studies find heat and dry air may help keep the virus from surviving on surfaces. But the virus is mainly spread via people's respiratory droplets, not through surface contamination.</p><p>"One should note that rising COVID-19 in tropical countries may go against the idea that with summer will come the end of COVID-19," Zapata said.</p><p>Just look at what's unfolding in <a href="https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg24632863-300-how-south-america-became-the-new-centre-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/" target="_blank">South America</a>, where countries like <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720323792" target="_blank">Brazil</a>, Chile, and Peru have become new epicenters of the pandemic.</p><p>It's much more plausible that physical distancing has led to a decline in cases in some areas.</p><p>"This most likely has to do with the effectiveness of social distancing and the precautions we are taking," Zapata said.</p><p>It's worth noting that <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/sars/about/fs-sars.html" target="_blank">SARSTrusted Source</a> — the coronavirus that struck in 2003 — mysteriously burnt out 7 to 8 months after it had been spreading.</p><p>Scientists still don't understand how or why SARS died out.</p><p>COVID-19 and SARS share genetic material, but SARS was much easier to contain since all people with an infection had symptoms.</p><p>With this new coronavirus, many people with infections are asymptomatic, making it difficult to blunt the spread of the virus and disease.</p>More Research Needed
<p>We don't have clear answers as to why the virus appears to be changing.</p><p>"I think it's important to study to see what's going on," Adalja said.</p><p>Researchers will have to look at all the patients and their disease characteristics at the start of the pandemic and now to identify any changes in people's viral loads or disease trajectories.</p><p>Adalja says we need more data to help us "understand if there is a real phenomenon going on here, or if it's a testing artifact."</p>The Bottom Line
<p>Some doctors say people with COVID-19 don't seem to be getting as sick, and that people recently tested are showing a lower viral load compared to those who tested positive for COVID-19 a few months ago.</p><p>Health experts say it doesn't look like the virus has mutated to be weaker, but this observation is likely a result of amplified testing capabilities and increased physical distancing measures.</p><p>More research is needed before scientists can say whether this is a phenomenon or simply due to better testing.</p>- If You're Worried About the New Coronavirus, Here's How to Protect ... ›
- Is the New Coronavirus Airborne? A Study From China Finds Evidence ›
New EU Biodiversity Strategy Can Reduce Risk of Future Pandemics — If It Fully Addresses Wildlife Trade
By Arnaud Goessens
As the planet faces the multiple impacts of COVID-19 on human health, well-being and economies, it's time for governments across the globe to show leadership and take the necessary steps to help prevent future major pandemics.
Trade, Biodiversity and Diseases
<p>The strategy, as published, does a great job acknowledging that efforts to address wildlife trade and consumption will help prevent and build up resilience to possible future diseases and pandemics.</p><p>But it doesn't go far enough. The EU must also assist the global community in ending the commercial trade and sale in markets of wildlife for human consumption — particularly birds and mammals — as a key outcome to prevent future zoonotic outbreaks.</p><p>Although much of the wildlife sold in these markets is legal, the illegal trade in wild animals continues to harm both wildlife and local communities. It can also produce the conditions for disastrous and deadly pandemics. The <a href="https://ec.europa.eu/environment/cites/trafficking_en.htm" target="_blank">EU Action Plan against Wildlife Trafficking</a> — first published in 2016 and due to expire this year — will therefore be a critical instrument for reducing that threat. The Biodiversity Strategy calls for the revision of the wildlife trafficking plan in 2021.</p>Southern white rhino, a frequently trafficked species, in Uganda. Rod Waddington / CC BY-SA 2.0
<p>This commitment is welcome and will provide an opportunity for the EU and its Member States to step up their efforts to combat wildlife trafficking and finally treat it as serious crime. Hopefully it will include a commitment to deploying a similar level of resources and penalties as currently devoted to crimes like drug trafficking. Without such deterrents in place, the EU — like any government or region — won't be able to put an end to wildlife trafficking.</p><p>The EU is also now determining its long-term budget — the Multiannual Financial Framework — and will soon set spending targets for the next seven years. The MFF and the next EU development-aid budget (the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument) are critical in outlining the EU's top priorities.</p><p>Those priorities must include high, ambitious spending targets for climate, environment and biodiversity. Without proper financing mechanisms, the EU won't be able to implement <em>any</em> strategies or actions to preserve our environment and health. While the Biodiversity Strategy states that the EU's ready to increase its support to developing countries for biodiversity after this year, no detailed financial pledge has yet been made. The EU has missed an opportunity to make a much-needed commitment in this regard, but it's not too late to establish one.</p><p>The EU has all the cards in its hands to make the right decisions — not only to significantly reduce the risk of future major pandemics but to build a new paradigm in which we can live in harmony with nature. It published a well-thought-out strategy that provides the foundation for ambitious actions to tackle the biodiversity crisis; now it needs to put its money where its mouth is.</p><p>The EU and its member states have established bold and immediate measures to mitigate the impacts of COVID-19 on human health, wellbeing and security. Now it must do the same to tackle the biodiversity crisis — whose impacts on our society are likely to be far worse than those of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>The EU has a unique opportunity to show leadership, to be a game-changer, and to be on the right side of history a model that other governments and regions across the globe can emulate. Let's hope it doesn't let us down.</p>By Ajit Niranjan
Civil society groups and public prosecutors in Brazil are taking President Jair Bolsonaro's government to court for failing to protect the Amazon rainforest, adding pressure to an administration already under fire for mismanaging the coronavirus pandemic.
Coronavirus and Deforestation
<p>Brazil's environmental and health crises are closely linked. The coronavirus pandemic had given fresh impetus to land grabbers razing swathes of forests as lockdowns have kept law enforcement officers at home.</p><p>Now, the fires that typically follow the felling of trees could further strain health systems.</p><p>Blazing wildfires, like the ones that devastated the Amazon last year, spout pollutants that lower air quality and work their way into people's lungs, exacerbating the same <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-air-pollution-might-raise-risk-of-fatality/a-52977422" target="_blank">breathing diseases</a> that leave people more vulnerable to the coronavirus. A joint peak in forest fires and COVID-19 cases could overwhelm hospitals without "incisive intervention by the State to curb illegal acts," according to a report published in May by INPE.</p><p>That could collapse health systems in several Amazonian states that are already operating at the limit, the authors wrote. "If the turning point of the epidemiological curve of COVID-19 does not occur immediately, in May 2020, there will certainly be an overlap of fires with the pandemic."</p><p>This could spell disaster for indigenous peoples and uncontacted tribes, said Sarah Shenker, a campaigner with Survival International. "In Brazil, there are more than 100 uncontacted tribes and they could be wiped out if invaders are not removed from their territory."</p><p>Even before the current coronavirus crisis, scientists warned that <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/how-deforestation-can-lead-to-more-infectious-diseases/a-53282244" target="_blank">forest loss makes pandemics more likely</a> by increasing the chance that diseases jump from animals to humans. A study published in the journal PNAS in October found that deforestation of the Amazon significantly increases transmission of malaria, a different type of disease.</p>Preserving the Climate
<p>The Amazon rainforest — 60 percent of which lies in Brazil — is one of the world's great carbon sinks. Preserving its trees and plants is crucial to meeting international targets that <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/co2-emissions-gap-un-report-warns-of-collective-failure-to-act/a-51407286" target="_blank">limit global warming</a> to well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.</p><p>Lawsuits that take years to complete are not going to produce results fast enough, said Ricardo Galvao, a former director of INPE who was <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/brazils-research-chief-sacked-after-deforestation-row-with-bolsonaro/a-49874119" target="_blank">fired by Bolsonaro</a> in August.</p><p>To curb deforestation in the Amazon, said Galvao, the best tools are "positive actions that show [that] exploring the forest, rather than destroying it, gives economic returns." For instance, international organizations like the UN could certify products from sustainably managed forests and countries could lower import taxes on such "green-stamped" goods.</p>- Indigenous Peoples Go to Court to Save the Amazon From Oil ... ›
- Leaked Documents Show Brazil's Bolsonaro Has Grave Plans for ... ›
- Amazon Deforestation Increase Prompts Germany to Cut $39.5M in ... ›
- Amazon Deforestation Rate Hits 3 Football Fields Per Minute, Data ... ›
