92 Percent of Greenland's Residents Believe Climate Change Is Happening
By Karin Kirk
Greenland had quite the summer. It rose from peaceful obscurity to global headliner as ice melted so swiftly and massively that many were left grasping for adjectives. Then, Greenland's profile was further boosted, albeit not to its delight, when President Trump expressed interest in buying it, only to be summarily dismissed by the Danish prime minister.
During that time I happened to be in East Greenland, both as an observer of the stark effects of climate change and as a witness to local dialogue about presidential real estate aspirations, polar bear migrations and Greenland's sudden emergence as a trending topic.
While attention buzzed around Greenland, some key voices were absent: those of the Greenlanders themselves. This autonomous territory of Denmark is home to 56,000 people, most of whom are Greenlandic Inuit. What are their thoughts about climate change?
A cohort of Danish and Greenlandic researchers recently completed a nationally representative survey, aiming to shed light on what residents think about climate change, climate impacts and policy solutions. The outcome, Greenlandic Perspectives on Climate Change, was published in August.
The researchers gathered responses from July 2018 to January 2019, before the summer of 2019 dealt Greenland an early breakup of sea ice, wildfires, a widespread heat wave and record-breaking glacial melt. Even before these events, climate change had already made a stark impression on the locals. "Climate change is our vulnerability, and it is bad for us," said a resident of Qeqertalik during an in-person survey.
Comparing Greenlanders' Views With Those of Americans
Several of the questions in the study used the same format as polling conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. As a result, the attitudes of Greenlanders and Americans can be directly compared. However, public opinion is ever-movable, and factors like extreme weather and high-profile political events can sway people's attitudes in one direction or another. The comparisons below use U.S. data from April 2019, and shifts in Americans' views over time can be explored with an interactive dataset.
But regardless of the exact timing, these two cultures are worlds apart, as is evident in many of the responses.
Broad Recognition That Climate Change Is Happening
The vast majority of people living in Greenland say the climate is changing. The Arctic is warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the world, and the results are not subtle.
"We don't have solid sea ice in the winter anymore and the ice is melting quickly," said one resident in Avannaata, in the northwest of Greenland. "Some of the glaciers are becoming smaller than before, and glaciers now release icebergs all year round."
Most Greenlanders Have Experienced the Effects of Climate Change
The Greenlandic way of life is close to nature. Most Greenlanders (76%) eat wild foods they hunt, fish or gather. Nearly one-quarter went out on the sea ice in the past year. Many live within sight of a glacier. The Greenlandic Inuit have long relied on nature for their livelihoods. One resident explained, "It is really bad because my parents are fishermen. If the weather is not stable, their economy is unstable."
Climate Change Is an Important Issue in Greenland
For wealthy nations in temperate climates, such as the U.S., climate change has only recently become an important issue among voters, despite decades of concern from scientists. But in Greenland, climate conditions are not an abstraction: Ice, snow and weather are central to their lives. Climate change is important to 82% of Greenlanders, compared with 64% of Americans.
Greenlanders spoke about local impacts: "The fish factory closed down in 2012 because the sea ice from the fjord side stopped forming." And they speak also of the global reach of the problem: "The ice sheet is melting and will be bad for both us and the world."
Frequent Discussions Among Greenlanders About Climate Change
As one might expect given the responses above, Greenlanders frequently talk about climate change. "We talk about the big changes in the weather almost every day," said one respondent. About one-quarter of Americans say they never discuss climate change; in Greenland, nearly half (45%) discuss it weekly or monthly.
A Slim Majority of Greenlanders Point to Human Activities
Given Greenlanders' reactions to the other questions, it's somewhat surprising that only a narrow majority thinks that human activities are warming the climate. The data from this question are similar to data on public opinion in the U.S., with the caveat that people's attitudes in both locations can change over time.
But the similar results likely stem from different reasons. In the U.S., acceptance of humans as a driving factor in climate change has divided along political lines, and partisan rhetoric to ignore or deny climate change remains a persistent distraction.
Greenland does not share the fractious politics of the U.S., so it's unlikely that partisanship or fossil fuel lobbying are at the root of public opinion. But Greenland residents are disconnected from the driving causes of climate change. Citizens of industrialized nations are accustomed to seeing smoke stacks, vast industrial sites, and, in many areas, a gauze of pollution in the air. Greenland has none of that. Instead, natural forces dominate their daily lives. The scale of pollution in industrialized countries is as foreign to the Inuit culture as polar bears are to most Americans.
Local Risks, Impacts and Perceptions
When Greenlanders talk about climate change, their observations and worries differ markedly from those of Americans. Subsistence hunting and fishing are still part of the Greenlandic way of life, and the Inuit are personally exposed to the hazards and hardships of a rapidly changing environment.
A resident in Qeqertalik, West Greenland, voiced a local concern, "The food-chain is becoming unpredictable, and animals in the Arctic are getting closer to towns, which is uncomfortable."
Violent Weather and Unpredictable Sea Ice as Top Problems
When it comes to specific climate impacts, people's observations reflect their particular circumstances. In southern areas of Greenland, unpredictable weather and increasing storminess rank as the top concerns. "More frequent, very powerful storms are very worrisome," said a West Sermersooq local.
In the northern and eastern regions of the country, the loss and thinning of sea ice are the most vexing impacts of climate change. A large majority (79%) of Greenland residents say they feel traveling on sea ice has become more dangerous in recent years: "Due to climate change, we get less sea ice in the winter, making it harder to make a living from [it]."
Who Will Be Most Harmed by Climate Change? Sled Dogs
Greenland residents say those most likely to suffer harm from climate change are not people, not children, and not future generations. It's sled dogs. Two-thirds of Greenlanders say they think their dogs will be harmed by climate change, as opposed to 50% who feel Greenlanders themselves will be harmed.
One respondent said in an interview, "I used to dogsled a lot when I grew up. My children didn't experience this because they were too late for sea ice."
Not All Think the Changes Will Be Bad
In the Arctic, the allure of a longer or warmer summer has some appeal. Even so, four times as many people think climate change is a bad thing than think it's beneficial. Nearly half the population feels the changes are neither bad nor good.
"It is nice that the climate is warming but bad globally," said one resident. Others mentioned the possibility of saving money on heating oil and electricity.
Melting ice may have benefits for navigation and agriculture. "It might make the Northwest passage more sailable, which could be good for Greenlandic society's economy and infrastructure," said a resident of West Sermersooq, Greenland's most populous region. A respondent in Avannaata, situated well north of the Arctic Circle, said, "I'm not sure it is going to harm us. In the future, I would like to try farming after we move south. It should benefit farming."
One West Greenlander reflected on a consequence of the melting ice that would reap local benefits along with global concerns, "We may get greater access to gas, oil and natural resources."
Most Greenlanders Back Limits on Greenhouse Emissions
Even though Greenland is a negligible contributor to the world's burgeoning outpouring of greenhouse gases, residents say they favor measures to limit their own pollution. Investments in renewable energy are the most attractive approach, with 75% approval and only 2% opposition. Most Greenlanders favor regulation of industrial greenhouse gas emissions and feel that Greenland should be part of the Paris climate agreement. Denmark is a member of the Paris agreement, but was granted a "territorial exclusion" for Greenland. Greenland did not enter the Paris agreement because resource extraction is one of its few options for economic development. This outlook is reflected in the opinion data; banning oil drilling does not garner majority support, even though citizens support emissions reductions in other ways. About 40% of residents say they prefer protecting the environment even if it costs jobs, and 26% say they favor economic growth over environmental protection.
"Because of the climate change, it can be challenging for the fishers but we always adapt," said a Qeqqata local. "We have to contribute to spreading awareness and preventing pollution."
Greenland's climate is harsh even in the best of circumstances, and climate impacts to Inuit lives present a first-order challenge. Nonetheless, many have a broad view of the problem. "It has been very cold in Greenland the last months, while it is so hot in the other countries. The people in other countries are dying due to the fires. If global warming happens everything will be rotten."
For many people around the world, the bottom line remains the same, whether uttered by someone in Albuquerque or in Avannaata: "If people stop polluting earth, maybe climate change won't be as drastic."
Editor's note: Anthony Leiserowitz, Director of the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, served in an advisory role on the Greenlandic study.
Minor, K., Agneman, G., Davidsen, N., Kleemann, N., Markussen, U., Olsen, A., Lassen, D., Rosing, MT. (2019). Greenlandic Perspectives on Climate Change 2018-2019 Results from a National Survey. University of Greenland and University of Copenhagen. Kraks Fond Institute for Urban Research.
Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Rosenthal, S., Kotcher, J., Bergquist, P., Ballew, M., Goldberg, M., & Gustafson, A. (2019). Climate change in the American mind: April 2019. Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.
Reposted with permission from our media associate Yale Climate Connections.
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By Kang-Chun Cheng
Modoc County lies in the far northeast corner of California, and most of its 10,000 residents rely on cattle herding, logging, or government jobs for employment. Rodeos and 4-H programs fill most families' calendars; massive belt buckles, blue jeans, and cowboy hats are common attire. Modoc's niche brand of American individualism stems from a free-spirited cowboy culture that imbues the local ranching conflict with wild horses.
The History of Horse Management<p>Before the 1950s, feral horses were largely unregulated in the U.S. They were released, grazed, captured, killed, sold, and otherwise <a href="http://www.blm.gov/sites/blm.gov/files/WHB-Report-2020-NewCover-051920-508.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">managed by local inhabitants</a> as they saw fit. Around that time, Velma Bronn Johnston, aka "Wild Horse Annie," started raising public awareness of the "perceived inhumane capture and treatment of free-ranging herds."</p><p>Thanks in part to Johnston's efforts, the Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act was signed into law by President Nixon in 1971. It declared that the animals "shall be protected from capture, branding, harassment, or death; and to accomplish this, they are to be considered in the area where presently found, as an integral part of the natural system of the public lands."</p><p><a href="http://science.sciencemag.org/content/341/6148/847.full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">This act</a> has been amended four times since its conception to accommodate the fluctuating opinions and conditions around maintaining a "thriving natural ecological balance on the public lands"—an admirable although highly subjective goal. Achieving it involves juggling competing interests: those of local residents, permanent grazers, hunters and fishers, advocacy groups, conservationists, and Indigenous tribes.</p><p>The Bureau of Land Management must manage these many conflicting interests. Modoc County's <a href="https://www.fs.fed.us/wild-horse-burro/territories/DevilsGardenPlateau.shtml" target="_blank">Devil's Garden Plateau Wild Horse Territory</a> epitomizes the challenges of this task. Officially deemed wild horse territory, the garden consists of 258,000 acres and is wholly within permitted livestock allotments. It is also home to wildlife such as cougar, antelope, migratory birds, and aquatic species dependent on delicate high-desert riparian areas.</p><p>The presence of wild horses has been shown to <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014019631530094X" target="_blank">decrease native wildlife species diversity</a> for both birds and mammals. Pronghorn antelope are an icon in Western grasslands, known for their annual 350-mile migration along historic routes estimated to be 5,800 years old. This awe-inspiring trek is one of the longest large-mammal migration corridors remaining in North America, but 75% of <a href="http://conbio.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2004.00548.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">pronghorn migration routes</a> have already been lost because of disturbances from the accelerated leasing of public lands and energy development. Horses also affect the pronghorn's yearly migrations by <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S014019631630218X" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">monopolizing watering holes</a>, thus preventing native species from drinking.</p>
Indigenous Support for Ecological Balance<p>Ken Sandusky, a public information officer who has worked for the Forest Service in Modoc County for 13 years, lives by his station's mission statement: "Caring for the Land and Serving People." In his work, Sandusky aims to include the broad range of stakeholders and often acts as a tribal liaison. Sandusky himself is a member of the Choctaw tribe of Oklahoma, but as a Modoc native, is more culturally in touch with the local Klamath tribe.</p><p>When it comes to rangeland health, he says, there's a tangible split in what that actually means. "It depends on what you are measuring the outcome against," Sandusky explains. Range managers may perceive progress from a year-to-year basis, but to many Indigenous tribes, the baseline for "progress" goes back generations, to pre-contact times. "They have long memories," he says. "Tribes see damage that is a hundred-plus years in the making."</p>
A Willingness to Try New Things<p>"Americans don't know what's happening on these lands," says Suzanne Roy, the executive director of the American Wild Horse Campaign, an advocacy organization. The Bureau of Land Management, she says, "is run by and for the livestock industry. They come from a ranching background. The term 'rangeland' management itself illustrates how livestock management is the dominant perspective."</p><p>Roy is particularly concerned about how resources are being allocated: "Policies of land management agencies don't reflect the desires and interests of the public." To illustrate, most Americans associate public lands with national parks and environmental conservation; only 29% of respondents to a recent poll considered livestock grazing an acceptable use of those lands.</p><p>Grazing on public lands certainly aligns with the financial interests of cattle ranchers and helps explain why they insist on increased wild horse management. Cattle can <a href="http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RS21232.pdf" target="_blank">graze on public lands</a> for $1.35 per animal per month, while grazing on comparable private land costs ranchers $23 per animal per month (American taxpayer dollars make up the difference). To be fair, though, small-scale ranching would not be viable without public lands.</p><p>The campaign hopes to work toward more equitable resource allocation and improvements to overall habitats for horses and wildlife generally. "There are workable solutions to this issue," Roy says. "Common pushback from rangers is that new conservation strategies will 'destroy our way of life,' but change doesn't have to be bad."</p><p>The <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0362331994900264" target="_blank">social conservatism</a> intrinsic to human cultures makes change seem daunting and people reluctant to try new tactics even in the face of suboptimal systems. Roy uses a case in adjacent Marin County to illustrate: Until 2001, the county ran a USDA program focused on killing apex predators (e.g. coyotes, mountain lions, and cougars) in defense of livestock. Unfortunately, this strategy fails to take into account the science of predators. Killing one mountain lion, for example, creates a vacuum and will eventually lead to increased competition for this newly available territory. In 2001, Marin introduced a country-run program that promoted nonlethal methods such as fox lights, guard dogs, and fladry to deal with predator incidents while compensating ranchers for sheep and lambs lost to predation.</p><p>Ranchers were initially livid, concerned that bans on shooting and trapping hindered their rights, making them defenseless against livestock predation. But 15 years later, a majority agreed that this form of humane <a href="http://www.projectcoyote.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Camilla-Fox-Thesis-FINAL-January-2008.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">adaptive management </a>has successfully reduced both livestock losses and the total number of predators. Ensuring its continued success, the program requires active participation on behalf of all stakeholders and long-term commitment from the local government for support.</p><p>As one fifth-generation sheepherder, Gowan Batiste, explained in an interview to the <a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/mendocino-county-rancher-and-others-calling-for-non-lethal-wildlife-management/ar-BB16CJ8g" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Ukiah Daily Journal,</a> "Livestock is a food of desperation for predators; the more you harass them and make life difficult for them, the more likely they are going to come into conflict with humans."</p>
Keeping Wild Horses in Check<p>When it comes to wild horses, many solutions are already in the works. Through annual autumn wild horse roundups, known as gathers, the Double Devil Wild Horse Corrals has become one of the U.S.'s most successful adoption sites. The California Cattlemen's Association, a nonprofit trade association and organization popular among ranchers in Modoc, urges its members to support the wild horse gathers in Devils Garden, saying they are humane, good for the horses themselves (since competition for scarce water and forage resources may instigate aggression and <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/j.1439-0310.1981.tb01930.x" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">herd violence</a>), and necessary to support local ranchers and Modoc's agriculture-reliant economy.</p><p>Another popular solution for controlling wild horse populations is a fertility-control vaccine called PZP, given to female horses on the range <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ur7w3UPTCsk" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">using dart guns</a>. Mares are tracked on foot or with game cameras while drones are used to locate more elusive herds. The PZP vaccine has been endorsed by the American Wild Horse Campaign as the "<a href="https://americanwildhorsecampaign.org/fertility-control" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">most promising strategy</a>" for managing wild horses in their habitats and is also recommended by the National Academy of Sciences. Importantly, a dose of the vaccine only costs $30.</p><p>Lastly, land acquisition and <a href="https://americanwildhorsecampaign.org/equitable-share-resources" target="_blank">grazing lease buyouts</a> can promote equitable sharing of public lands and available forage. Acquiring key pieces of land adjacent to or within federally designated wild horse habitat areas can reduce conflicts over resource allocation.</p>
A Global Search for Solutions<p>Pastoralists all over the world face similar land-use conflicts, despite huge variations in climate and culture. The ongoing situation across rural California resonates with that of Fulani cattle herders in Niger and Sami reindeer herders in the Arctic.</p><p>Herders everywhere are accused of having too many animals or are perceived as selfish and irresponsible by their own communities. Overgrazing is certainly an issue, but it's not simply the number of animals that matters: The <a href="https://savory.global/holistic-management/" target="_blank">amount of time</a> animals spend in a certain area is critical to rangeland health. And in the context of such allegations, the ecological value of grazing is frequently omitted. Grazers, both wild and domestic, <a href="https://www.yesmagazine.org/issue/food-everyone/2019/02/04/restoring-the-range-can-beef-be-earth-friendly/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">are key to regulating soil health and allowing for species diversity and coverage, </a>as well as efficient carbon sequestration.</p><p>Part of the problem in these heated grazing debates is that moderate viewpoints are drowned out by extremist agendas—those who prioritize wild horse populations at all costs and those who want all of the horses gone, period. "The majority of people don't really have strong views about the horses," Sandusky says. "But the ones who do can get really into it." These unwavering views make it difficult to find compromises that account for all stakeholders.</p><p>"There is no biological problem, merely a social one," says professor Nicholas Tyler, a pastoralism expert at the University of Tromsø in northern Norway. Tyler maintains that in the case of horses and cattle in the West, as with so many others, the so-called equilibria argument is specious and quasi-biological. "Certainly a lot of horses will influence the species composition," he says. "Remove the horses, things change. Add horses, things change again. There is nothing magical about that."</p><p>But Tyler takes it one step further: "There never was, is, or will be a balance. There are shifting equilibria, which is something quite different," he says. "It is up to the community to decide which state of that equilibrium it prefers."</p>
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Using one of the world's problems to solve another is the philosophy behind a Norwegian start-up's mission to develop affordable housing from 100% recycled plastic.
Sustainable Homes<p>UN-Habitat says an <a href="https://unhabitat.org/un-habitat-aims-to-use-plastic-waste-to-support-housing-for-all" target="_blank">estimated 60% of people living in urban areas of Africa are in informal settlements</a>. At the same time, between 1990 and 2017, African countries imported around 230 metric tonnes of plastic, "which mostly ended up in dump sites creating a massive environmental challenge," the agency adds.</p><p>UN-Habitat deputy executive director, Victor Kisob, said the aim of the partnership with Othalo was to "promote adequate, sustainable and affordable housing for all."</p>
Artist's impression of an Othalo community, imagined by architect Julien De Smedt. Othalo<p>Othalo's process involves shredding plastic waste and mixing it with other elements, including non-flammable materials. Components are used to build up to four floors, with a home of 60 square metres using eight tons of recycled plastic. A factory with one production line can produce 2,800 housing units annually.</p><p>Following successful laboratory tests, Othalo's factory in Estonia has started producing components to build three demonstration homes for Kenya's capital, Nairobi; Yaoundé, the capital of Cameroon and Dakar, the capital of Senegal.</p><p>Othalo founder Frank Cato Lahti has been developing and testing the technology since 2016 in partnership with <a href="https://www.sintef.no/en/" target="_blank">SINTEF</a>, a 70-year-old independent research organization in Trondheim, Norway, and experts at Norway's <a href="https://en.uit.no/startsida" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">University of Tromsø</a>.</p>
Othalo founder Frank Cato Lahti. Othalo<p>Almost <a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/publications/2018-revision-of-world-urbanization-prospects.html" target="_blank">seven out of every 10 people in the world are expected to live in urban areas by 2050</a>. More than 90% of this growth will take place in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean.</p><p>"In the absence of effective urban planning, the consequences of this rapid urbanization will be dramatic," UN-Habitat warns.</p><p>Lack of proper housing and growth of slums, inadequate and outdated infrastructure, escalating poverty and unemployment, and pollution and health issues, are just some of the effects.</p><p>Mindsets, policies, and approaches towards urbanization need to change for the growth of cities and urban areas to be turned into opportunities that will leave nobody behind, UN-Habitat says.</p>
Pioneers of Change<p>Reimagining cities and communities for greater resilience and sustainability was a key topic at the<a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/pioneers-of-change-summit-2020" target="_blank"> World Economic Forum's Pioneers of Change Summit 2020</a>.</p><p>The digital event brought together innovators and stakeholders from around the world to explore solutions to the challenges facing enterprises, governments and society.</p><p>Opening the summit, <a href="https://www.weforum.org/events/pioneers-of-change-summit-2020/sessions/opening-plenary-8f731cbc65" target="_blank">Stephan Mergenthaler, the Forum's Head of Strategic Intelligence and a member of the Executive Committee</a>, said: "We need to change the way we produce, the way we live and interact in our cities to make this transition to net-zero emissions a reality…</p><p>"And as this year has illustrated so dramatically, we need to make every effort that we keep populations healthy, if we want to avoid jeopardizing all this progress."</p><p><em>Reposted with permission from </em><em><a href="https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/un-africa-recycled-plastic-housing/" target="_blank">World Economic Forum</a>.</em><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/r/entryeditor/2649069252#/" target="_self"></a></p>
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