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Global Energy Markets Reach Tipping Point Giving Renewables an Edge
Global energy markets are reaching a tipping point. A pathway has opened for climate progress, but only if governments, business and public recognize and exploit the opportunity.
For the first time, a large fraction of the world's fossil fuels could be replaced at a lower cost by clean energy, with today's renewable technologies and prices. And virtually no further investments in fossil fuels make long-term economic sense because higher fossil fuel prices over their useful life will be exorbitant.
For the first time, a large fraction of the world's fossil fuels could be replaced at a lower cost by clean energy. Photo courtesy of Shutterstock
Early awareness of that reality is driving major energy growth markets to look past the fossil fuel monopoly of the 20th century. The newly elected, pro-business Indian government of Narendra Modi, as its first policy initiative, promised to provide roof-top solar to 400 million off-grid citizens. Modi is also slashing fossil fuel subsidies with their skyrocketing fiscal and trade deficits from imported coal and oil. The Chinese government signaled its intent to cap overall CO2 emissions in its next five-year plan.
The private sector is joining in. Barclay's Bank recently downgraded the entire U.S. utility sector in fear that it would not respond to the disruptive challenge of distributed solar. Global banks are abandoning their intended financing of a major coal port at Abbot Point in Australia. International oil companies, after binging on ever more expensive and extreme oil plays pulled back sharply, as mega-project after mega-project was cancelled or delayed. "We have to curb costs, as we can't count on oil and gas prices' continuing to rise," Total's chief executive Christophe de Margerie told investors. Total was joined by BP, Chevron, Shell, Statoil. Even giant Exxon sold off its major investments in U.S. light-tight oil.
The latest Bloomberg New Energy Finance projection suggests that two-thirds of incremental global power generation over the next 15 years will come from renewables. Declines in coal use in developed economies will be sharp enough to cut the global share of fossil fuels from 64 percent today to only 44 percent in 2030.
Until recently transportation was different—there were no cheaper clean alternatives to oil except for shifting from road to rail. But the electric vehicle revolution, partnered in the U.S. with cheaper shale gas, means that oil at $110 a barrel is no longer the cheapest fuel—EV's, natural gas and ethanol are already cheaper for the driver. Goldman Sachs projects that with intelligent policy support—not subsidies—40 percent of the U.S. light duty fleet would be EV's by 2050, with internal rates of return above 15 percent.
While these sound like large numbers, they are clearly inadequate from a climate perspective—worse, they are far lower market shares for clean energy than least-cost economics would warrant. The Bloomberg power projection, for example, still leaves the world investing $2.6 trillion in fossil fuel electrical generation, mostly natural gas in the U.S. and coal in Asia. Bloomberg expects that coal will increase its market share in the Indian and Chinese power sectors—even though it would be cheaper for these countries to move towards renewables much more rapidly, because wind and solar will be cheaper at the margin than coal and gas for most of the lifetime of any new power plants built in the future.
In country after country, fossil fuels still retain market share no longer justified by cost—the precipitous drop in the price of renewables, accompanied by the escalating marginal cost of extracting oil, gas and coal, have created a fundamentally new market dynamic in which fossil fuels hold on in spite of the fact that they are more expensive, not cheaper.
These "renewable edge" markets are now much bigger than the current renewable share. Electricity currently provides only one percent of global transportation energy; EV's and rail could today replace the first 15 percent of the oil used by cars and trucks at with an internal rate of return higher than 15 percent. Fossil fuels generate 63 percent of the world's power, renewables less than 5 percent, but one-third of fossil electricity now costs more than competing wind and solar. Older, outmoded coal plants, along with electrons generated by oil, LNG and marine coal no longer make economic sense. Profitable building retrofits would cut fossil fuel used for heating and cooling by 20 percent, and displace another 15 percent of fossil fuel electricity demand.
Fossil fuels are thus no longer the lowest cost energy source in enough of the world's energy markets to enable disruptive clean energy technologies to scale at a rate which would give them overwhelming market-wide competitive advantages in a relatively short time frame—if markets responded competitively to price signals. But incumbent energy markets may not in fact harvest much of this renewable edge, because they are not price driven.
Why are investors poised, according to Bloomberg, to put $2.6 trillion into new fossil fuel power plants? Why is the oil industry still investing $674 billion a year in looking for new, and increasingly unaffordable, reserves? Why is investor behavior lagging price signals?
There are several factors. Advanced energy markets are quasi-cartels, and incumbent fossil interests obstruct market transitions. American public utilities are waging war on their own customers who choose cheaper rooftop solar, seeking to tax them out of the market. Or try buying $3.00 E85 instead of $4.35 gasoline for your flex-fueled vehicle at an Exxon station.
In emerging markets raw energy is not enough—new infrastructure must be built to get that energy to consumers reliably when they need it—transmission lines, substations, pipelines, refineries. Hard infrastructure must be accompanied by complex administrative and economic mechanisms—rate regulation, credit arrangements, pollution standards, land use and leasing regimes.
The problems posed by renewables—generation intermittency, surface leasing rules for wind and solar farms, net metering—are not necessarily more difficult than those posed by base-load coal plants—fuel supply and storage, pollution damage or labor stoppages, grid failures, inability to meet peak afternoon loads. But the problems associated with fossil fuel energy are old problems, with established solutions and the security of being "proven." Disruptive clean energy solutions pose new kinds of challenges. Ossified energy bureaucracies would rather deal with intractable old problems, rather than wrestle with potentially much easier but innovation-dependent new ones.
(It is remarkable how often the "intermittency" of solar power is cited as a barrier to its growth in India by people who routinely back up their local grid with diesel, in a country where the biggest brown-out risk is on hot summer afternoons when solar is at its most reliable, and where almost any local solar array is more reliable).
And, the economic chatter of market fundamentalists notwithstanding, market lag is normal. For example, most analysis suggests that solar or wind should only displace coal or gas as investment choices AFTER they become cheaper and "grid parity" is achieved. That's logical if you were building a power plant that could be equally well fuelled by wind, sunlight, natural gas or coal—buy the cheapest fuel today. But if you build a fuel-specific power plant based on today's costs, and it operates for 20 years, you can easily blunder, because you have to pay tomorrow's much higher cost for fuel most of the time, as Japanese importers of Qatari LNG are doing today under their old contracts.
Here's a chart that shows that risk:
This chart contrasts the costs of building a solar vs. natural gas plant in 2012, operating it for 25 years, assuming that grid parity occurs in 2017. A solar power plant costs the same $0.18 for the whole life of the project. A gas plant starts cheaper—at $0.155—but gradually climbs with the price of gas and inflation to $0.25 by the end of its life. The red area—savings from cheaper gas power for the first five years—are dwarfed by the light pink area—savings from cheaper solar power for most of the project life. In most markets parity between clean and fossil energy is projected to occur within 7-8 years. Infrastructure lasts for 25. So almost no new piece of fossil dependent energy infrastructure—vehicles, power plant, transmission line and building—will pay off on a lifetime cost basis.
Market true-believers may argue that this could not be true—if solar plants would generate cheaper electrons in India over a 25 year period Indian utilities would build them. But that version of market efficiency is preposterous. The world is cluttered with bankrupt projects built on the basis of outdated assumptions about the future. What is true is that companies—or countries—who see the clean energy revolution and act on it sooner will have much better balance sheets in 15 years than those who stick with a sinking fossil ship.
It's time for climate advocates to start pointing out what the data makes obvious—with no price on carbon, clean energy should still be replacing fossil fuels as fast as we can get it built—and future investments in new coal plants, or finding new $120 oil—are going to be stranded assets, whatever the world does about climate change.
We aren't asking for sacrifice—just common sense.
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By Tom Duszynski
The coronavirus is certainly scary, but despite the constant reporting on total cases and a climbing death toll, the reality is that the vast majority of people who come down with COVID-19 survive it. Just as the number of cases grows, so does another number: those who have recovered.
In mid-March, the number of patients in the U.S. who had officially recovered from the virus was close to zero. That number is now in the tens of thousands and is climbing every day. But recovering from COVID-19 is more complicated than simply feeling better. Recovery involves biology, epidemiology and a little bit of bureaucracy too.
How does your body fight off COVID-19?<p>Once a person is exposed the coronavirus, the body starts producing <a href="https://www.mblintl.com/products/what-are-antibodies-mbli/" target="_blank">proteins called antibodies to fight the infection</a>. As these <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/" target="_blank">antibodies start to successfully contain the virus</a> and keep it from replicating in the body, symptoms usually begin to lessen and you start to feel better. Eventually, if all goes well, your immune system will completely destroy all of the virus in your system. A person who was infected with and survived a virus with no long-term health effects or disabilities has "recovered."</p><p>On average, a person who is infected with SARS-CoV-2 will feel ill for about seven days from the onset of symptoms. Even after symptoms disappear, there still may be small amounts of the virus in a patient's system, and they should stay <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/steps-when-sick.html" target="_blank">isolated for an additional three days</a> to ensure they have truly <a href="https://health.usnews.com/conditions/articles/coronavirus-recovery-what-to-know" target="_blank">recovered and are no longer infectious</a>.</p>
What about immunity?<p>In general, once you have recovered from a viral infection, your body will keep cells called lymphocytes in your system. These cells "remember" viruses they've previously seen and can react quickly to fight them off again. If you are exposed to a virus you have already had, your antibodies will likely stop the virus before it starts causing symptoms. <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.5114%2Fceji.2018.77390" target="_blank">You become immune</a>. This is the <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK27158/" target="_blank">principle behind many vaccines</a>.</p><p>Unfortunately, immunity isn't perfect. For many viruses, like mumps, immunity can wane over time, leaving you <a href="https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/04/160421145747.htm" target="_blank">susceptible to the virus in the future</a>. This is why you need to get revaccinated – those "booster shots" – occasionally: to prompt your immune system to make more antibodies and memory cells.</p><p>Since this coronavirus is so new, scientists still don't know whether people who recover from COVID-19 are <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/faq.html" target="_blank">immune to future infections of the virus</a>. Doctors are finding antibodies in ill and recovered patients, and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html" target="_blank">that indicates the development of immunity</a>. But the question remains how long that immunity will last. Other coronaviruses like <a href="https://doi.org/10.1002/jmv.25685" target="_blank">SARS and MERS produce an immune response</a> that will protect a person at least for a short time. I would suspect the same is true of SARS-CoV-2, but the research simply hasn't been done yet to say so definitively.</p>
Why have so few people officially recovered in the US?<p>This is a dangerous virus, so the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is being extremely careful when deciding what it means to recover from COVID-19. Both medical and testing criteria must be met before a person is <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html" target="_blank">officially declared recovered</a>.</p><p>Medically, a person must be fever-free without fever-reducing medications for three consecutive days. They must show an improvement in their other symptoms, including reduced coughing and shortness of breath. And it must be at least seven full days <a href="https://health.usnews.com/conditions/articles/coronavirus-recovery-what-to-know" target="_blank">since the symptoms began</a>.</p><p>In addition to those requirements, the CDC guidelines say that a person must test negative for the coronavirus twice, with the <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html" target="_blank">tests taken at least 24 hours apart</a>.</p><p>Only then, if both the symptom and testing conditions are met, is a person officially considered recovered by the CDC.</p><p>This second testing requirement is likely why there were so few official recovered cases in the U.S. until late March. Initially, there was a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/18/health/coronavirus-test-shortages-face-masks-swabs.html" target="_blank">massive shortage of testing in the U.S.</a> So while many people were certainly recovering over the last few weeks, this could not be officially confirmed. As the country enters the height of the pandemic in the coming weeks, focus is still on <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/hcp/clinical-criteria.html" target="_blank">testing those who are infected</a>, not those who have likely recovered.</p><p>Many more people are being tested now that states and private companies have begun <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html" target="_blank">producing and distributing tests</a>. As <a href="https://www.dispatch.com/news/20200406/coronavirus-in-ohio-from-its-rocky-start-testing-for-covid-19-slowly-ramping-up" target="_blank">the number of available tests increases</a> and the pandemic eventually slows in the country, more testing will be available for those who have appeared to recover. As people who have already recovered are tested, the appearance of any new infections will help researchers learn <a href="https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/24/we-need-smart-coronavirus-testing-not-just-more-testing/" target="_blank">how long immunity can be expected to last</a>.</p>
Once a person has recovered, what can they do?<p>Knowing whether or not people are immune to COVID-19 after they recover is going to determine what individuals, communities and society at large can do going forward. If scientists can show that recovered patients are immune to the coronavirus, then a person who has recovered could in theory <a href="https://www.vox.com/2020/3/30/21186822/immunity-to-covid-19-test-coronavirus-rt-pcr-antibody" target="_blank">help support the health care system</a> by caring for those who are infected.</p><p>Once communities pass the peak of the epidemic, the number of new infections will decline, while the number of <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/china-says-passed-peak-coronavirus-epidemic-covid-19-1491863" target="_blank">recovered people will increase</a>. As these trends continue, the risk of transmission will fall. Once the risk of transmission has fallen enough, community-level isolation and social distancing orders will begin to relax and businesses will start to reopen. Based on what other countries have gone through, it will be <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w" target="_blank">months until the risk of transmission is low</a> in the U.S.</p><p>But before any of this can happen, the U.S. and the world need to make it through the peak of this pandemic. Social distancing works to slow the spread of infectious diseases and <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/what-you-can-do.html" target="_blank">is working for COVID-19</a>. Many people will <a href="https://www.yalemedicine.org/stories/2019-novel-coronavirus/" target="_blank">need medical help to recover</a>, and social distancing will slow this virus down and give people the best chance to do so.</p>
By Elizabeth Claire Alberts
The future for the world's oceans often looks grim. Fisheries are set to collapse by 2048, according to one study, and 8 million tons of plastic pollute the ocean every year, causing considerable damage to delicate marine ecosystems. Yet a new study in Nature offers an alternative, and more optimistic view on the ocean's future: it asserts that the entire marine environment could be substantially rebuilt by 2050, if humanity is able to step up to the challenge.
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By Zulfikar Abbany
Bread has been a source of basic nutrition for centuries, the holy trinity being wheat, maize and rice. It has also been the reason for a lot of innovation in science and technology, from millstones to microbiological investigations into a family of single-cell fungi called Saccharomyces.
Chemical leavening<p>If you like a little heft in your loaf, you will need a leavening agent.</p><p>For those short on time, you can use baking soda. That's a chemical compound of sodium bicarbonate mixed with potassium bitartrate, or cream of tartar.</p><p>Soda breads have their traditions in parts of eastern and central Europe, and in Ireland and Scotland, with Melrose loaves and "farls."</p><p>They can taste a bit bland, though, and are often considered only as an emergency solution on Sundays. No disrespect intended: They taste just fine fresh from the oven.</p><p>Whether it's chemical or more "natural," leavening relies largely on the production of carbon dioxide.</p><p>When you mix an acid, such as vinegar, buttermilk, yogurt or apple cider, with an alkaline compound like baking soda, you get CO2. That CO2 creates bubbles, which in turn capture steam in the oven and allow a bread to rise.</p><p><span></span>But it's better with yeast. Tastes better, too. It just takes more time. </p>
What is yeast?<p>There are yeasts all around us — on grains, in the air, in biofuels. It even lives inside us, but that's not always a good thing.</p><p><a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1090575/pdf/1471-2334-5-22.pdf" target="_blank">Candida yeast</a> can cause infections of the skin, feet, mouth, penis or vagina if it builds up too much in the body.</p><p>One of the most common yeasts, however, is <em>Saccharomyces cerevisiae</em>. That's <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/an-early-beer-archaeologists-tap-ground-at-worlds-oldest-brewery/a-45480731" target="_blank">"brewer's"</a> or "baker's" yeast.</p><p>You can get fresh baker's yeast, often in 42-gram (1.48-ounce) cubes, or as dried yeast (quick action or active, which requires rehydration) in a sachet of 7 grams.</p><p>There's little difference: One is compressed and the other is dehydrated and granulated. But they do the same thing, essentially. </p><p>Some commercial yeast producers add molasses and other nutrients. But natural yeast has plenty of useful nutrients in it anyway, including B group vitamins, so who knows whether it's good or necessary to add them. </p>
How does yeast work?<p>When you mix flour, yeast and water, you set off a veritable chain reaction. Enzymes in the wheat convert starch into sugar. And the yeast creates enzymes of its own to convert those sugars into a form it can absorb.</p><p>The yeast "feeds" on the sugars to create carbon dioxide and alcohol. The yeast burps and farts, releasing gases into the mix, and that creates bubbles to trap CO2. </p><p>It's a vital fermentation process that breaks down the gluten in the flour and helps make your bread more digestible.</p><p>The yeast cells split and reproduce, generating lactic and carbonic acid, raising the temperature and ultimately adding flavor to the mix.</p><p>The longer you leave the yeast to do its thing, the better for your bread. Time is more important than the amount of yeast. </p><p>In fact, that's an enduring question — how much yeast? I'll use 20 grams fresh yeast for 500 grams of flour. Others say that's enough yeast for 1 kilo. If you are converting a dry-yeast recipe to fresh yeast, some bakers advise tripling the weight. So, if a sachet of dried yeast is 7 grams, your fresh yeast is 21 grams.</p><p><span></span>But that also depends on the flours you are using, temperatures in the bowl and the room, and a host of other things. You'll just have to experiment and see. No number of books (and I've read a stack on bread) will help as much as trial and error.</p>
Wild yeast: Sourdough<p>So, good bread needs time. If you have a lot of time, why not move it up a notch and grow wild yeast — a sourdough starter — in your own home?</p><p>A sourdough starter is not to be mistaken (as it often is) for the leaven, or "mother," "sponge," or <em>levain</em>. That's more a second stage, a descendant of the starter. You take a scoop from your starter and add it to another flour and water mixture when you prepare the dough for a new loaf. </p><p>The sourdough process utilizes yeasts naturally present in flour and … yet more time. A longer fermentation process allows a richer lactic acid bacteria <em>lactobacilli</em> or LAB to evolve, and that can be healthy for your gut microbiome.</p><p>It's simple enough to start a sourdough starter. All you need is flour, warm water and time.</p><p>Some suggest equal measures of whole-grain flour and water at 28 degrees Celsius (82 degrees Fahrenheit), some say room temperature — just don't let the water exceed 40 C or the yeasts will die. Some suggest two parts flour to three parts water. But it's up to you whether you want a drier or wetter starter. You will know only through experimentation. </p><p>Some say you should filter tap water to remove chemicals like fluoride and avoid using water that's boiled and then cooled. Others say that really doesn't matter.</p><p>The main thing is, keep it clean and give it time. Days, weeks, months and years.</p>
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