This Simple Model Shows the Importance of Wearing Masks and Social Distancing
A woman wears a face mask as she waits at a bus stop with an information sign asking people to keep social distance due to the coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic on June 26, 2020 in Stockholm, Sweden. STINA STJERNKVIST / TT News Agency / AFP / Getty Images
By Jeyaraj Vadiveloo
With the advent of an infectious disease outbreak, epidemiologists and public health officials quickly try to forecast deaths and infections using complex computer models. But with a brand new virus like the one that causes COVID-19, these estimates are complicated by a dearth of credible information on symptoms, contagion and those who are most at risk.
My team at the Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research has developed a free, user-friendly computer model that has a different goal. It demonstrates how infections and deaths progress on a daily basis over a three-month period depending on how people behave in response to the outbreak. This model allows the public to input data that demonstrate how changes in safety measures in their communities, including wearing face covering and social distancing, can significantly impact the spread of this virus and mortality rates.
Our Goldenson Center COVID-19 model uses a hypothetical 1,000-person population and calculates outcomes using three types of information: the initial number of infections, social distancing, and personal protection measures that include wearing masks, frequent hand-washing and staying quarantined if exhibiting COVID-19 symptoms. Our model then uses this initial information to project on a daily basis the cumulative infections and deaths over a three-month period. It's not based on actual disease data and is designed to demonstrate the effects of safety measures, rather than make specific predictions.
This simple actuarial model uses general guidelines, rather than data and assumptions about COVID-19 specifically, to simulate the effect of safety protocols. Here, a hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a population of 1,000, with 10% observing good safety protocols, leads to hundreds of infections and deaths after three months. Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut, Author provided
This simulation shows the effect on the same hypothetical group of 100 infected people out of a group of 1,000 where 80% of people wear masks and practice social distancing, which slows the infection rate to almost zero after two months. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research, CC BY-NC-ND
Why it Matters
By inputting different assumptions, people can see how their community's personal actions can change the course of this pandemic — and how poor protocols can trigger exponential spread of the virus.
For example, let's assume that 100 people are infected out of a population of 1,000, with one in 10 wearing masks, keeping appropriate distance and quarantining if necessary. The model shows that 30 days later, the virus would have killed 156 people. After three months, the death toll reaches 460 — with 510 now infected.
However, our model shows that if half the population practices safe protocols, infections after 90 days drop to 293 and deaths drop even more dramatically, to 149 — about one-third of the lives lost under looser measures.
The main takeaway is that safety measures that are within our control have significant impact — and ignoring those protocols can have dire consequences.
If a state opens up and maintains safety measures for at least three months, the virus will be contained and possibly eliminated. On the other hand, if a state opens up too soon and its residents ignore safety protocols, there could be an exponential increase in COVID-19 deaths within months. It's important for the public to realize that spread of the virus is impacted only by personal behavior.
What’s Next?
Our model shows that there must be continued emphasis on maintaining necessary safety measures as we relax shelter-in-place rules and get people back to work. Practicing common-sense social distancing, wearing masks in public and quarantining when necessary is a small inconvenience for a limited amount of time — that will contain the devastation of this virus and ensure that our economy is restored.
Jeyaraj Vadiveloo is the director of the Janet and Mark L. Goldenson Center for Actuarial Research at the University of Connecticut.
Jeyaraj Vadiveloo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Reposted with permission from The Conversation.
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If you get a call from a number you don't recognize, don't hit decline — it might be a contact tracer calling to let you know that someone you've been near has tested positive for the coronavirus. blackCAT / Getty Images
By Joni Sweet
If you get a call from a number you don't recognize, don't hit decline — it might be a contact tracer calling to let you know that someone you've been near has tested positive for the coronavirus.
<p>Ignoring calls from contact tracers could put you at risk of unknowingly transmitting the virus to your loved ones.</p><p>It can even land you in legal hot water if you knowingly avoid contact tracers.</p><p>Earlier this month, officials in Rockland County, New York, sent <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/nyregion/rockland-coronavirus-party.html" target="_blank">subpoenas to eight people</a> who refused to participate in contact tracing and threatened them with thousands of dollars in fines.</p><p>Hearing the phrase "You may have been exposed to the coronavirus" coming from the other end of the line can be scary, but it's important to stay on the phone. Here's what to expect if you get a call from a contact tracer.</p>
Interviews With Contact Tracers
<p>Contact tracing is a public health strategy that involves identifying everyone who may have been in contact with a person who has the coronavirus. Contact tracers collect information and provide guidance to help contain the transmission of disease.</p><p>It's been used during outbreaks of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), Ebola, measles, and now the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.</p><p>It starts when the local department of health gets a report of a confirmed case of the coronavirus in its community and gives that person a call. The contact tracer usually provides information on how to isolate and when to get treatment, then tries to figure out who else the person may have exposed.</p><p>"We ask who they've been in contact with in the 48 hours prior to symptom onset, or 2 days before the date of their positive test if they don't have symptoms," said <a href="https://case.edu/medicine/healthintegration/people/heidi-gullett" target="_blank">Dr. Heidi Gullett</a>, associate director of the Center for Community Health Integration at the Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine and medical director of the Cuyahoga County Board of Health in Ohio.</p><p>If the person with the coronavirus hasn't left their home much, it's a relatively straightforward process.</p><p>The interview can get a lot more involved if the person has been traveling, working outside the home, socializing, and seeing lots of other people. The person might need to review their calendar, create a timeline of everywhere they've been, and figure out how long they spent with different individuals.</p><p>"We're not concerned about every single contact with others, just the high-risk contacts, defined as being within 6 feet of someone else for 15 minutes or more," said <a href="https://www.unlv.edu/news/expert/brian-labus" target="_blank">Brian Labus</a>, assistant professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas' School of Public Health and a member of Nevada Gov. Steve Sisolak's task force to advise on the scientific aspects of the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p>The case interviews can take anywhere from 30 minutes to a few hours, depending on the complexity.</p>
“You’ve Been Exposed”
<p>After the case interview, contact tracers will get to work calling the folks who may have been exposed to the coronavirus by the person who tested positive.</p><p>"We give them recommendations about quarantining or isolating, getting tested, and what to do if they become sick. If they're not already sick, we still want them to self-quarantine so that they don't spread the disease to anyone else if they were to become sick," said Labus.</p><p>Generally, the contact tracer won't ask for additional contacts unless they happen to call someone who is sick or has a confirmed case of the virus. They will help ensure the contact has the resources they need to isolate themselves, if necessary. The contact tracer may continue to stay in touch with that person over the next 14 days.</p><p>"We follow the percentage of people that were contacts, then converted into being actual cases of the virus. It's an important marker to help us understand what kind of transmission happens in our community and how to control the virus," said Gullett.</p>Why You Should Participate (and What Happens If You Don’t)
<p>A <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30457-6/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet study</a> from June 16, which looked at data from more than 40,000 people, found that COVID-19 transmission could be reduced by 64 percent through isolating those who have the coronavirus, quarantining their household, and contacting the people they may have exposed.</p><p>The combination strategy was significantly more effective than mass random testing or just isolating the sick person and members of their household.</p><p>However, contact tracing is only as effective as people's willingness to participate, and a small number of people who've contracted the coronavirus or were potentially exposed are reluctant to talk.</p><p>"Contact tracers have all been hung up on, cussed at, yelled at," said Gullet.</p><p>The hesitation to talk to contact tracers often stems from concerns over privacy — a serious issue in healthcare.</p><p>"These investigations are all conducted through health departments which have strict laws about what can and can't be shared. Protecting people's privacy is a core part of what we do, and we don't release the information you share to the public or tell other people about your medical history," said Labus.</p><p>The Federal Trade Commission has <a href="https://www.consumer.ftc.gov/blog/2020/06/help-covid-19-contact-tracers-not-scammers" target="_blank">guidance</a> on how you can protect your privacy and make sure you're speaking to a legitimate contact tracer. Remember: A contact tracer will never ask for your immigration status, Social Security number, or any sort of payment.</p><p>While legal action against people who refuse to talk to contact tracers (like the eight people who received subpoenas in Rockland County) is rare, it can happen. The bigger risk of avoiding these calls is the potential for you to miss out on important guidance about your own health, undermine your state's ability to reopen safely, and transmit the virus to others.</p><p>"If you're doing contact tracing and you're getting a bad filtering rate — meaning you're only getting in touch with a fraction of the people you try to contact — then the program isn't effective or useful. The coronavirus is extremely contagious, so missing a few cases can lead to an outbreak," said <a href="https://sph.cuny.edu/people/bruce-y-lee/" target="_blank">Dr. Bruce Y. Lee</a>, professor of health policy and management at the City University of New York's Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy.</p><p>"We shouldn't sit here and think that the only options are to ride it out or get a vaccine," he added. "There are other public health measures we can take, and contact tracing is one of them."</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from<a href="https://www.healthline.com/" target="_blank"> Healthline</a><a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-expect-if-a-covid-19-contact-tracer-calls-you#Why-you-should-participate-(and-what-happens-if-you-dont)" target="_blank"></a>. For detailed source information, please view the original article on <a href="https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-to-expect-if-a-covid-19-contact-tracer-calls-you#Why-you-should-participate-(and-what-happens-if-you-dont)" target="_blank">Healthline</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Aerial view of burnt areas of the Amazon rainforest, near Porto Velho, Rondonia state, Brazil, on Aug. 24, 2019. CARLOS FABAL / AFP via Getty Images
NASA scientists say that warmer than average surface sea temperatures in the North Atlantic raise the concern for a more active hurricane season, as well as for wildfires in the Amazon thousands of miles away, according to Newsweek.
<p><br/></p>
<p>As NASA pointed out in a <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2020/conditions-ripe-for-amazon-fire-us-hurricanes" target="_blank">statement</a>, warm <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/oceans">ocean</a> temperatures near the equator draw the water northward. As the water moves away from the Amazon, the landscape becomes drier and more flammable. That means that fires set for agriculture and clearing land have an increased potential to grow out of control. Meanwhile, the additional moisture traveling north aids the development of hurricanes.</p>
<p>"The fire season forecast is consistent with what we saw in 2005 and 2010, when warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures spawned a series of severe hurricanes and triggered record droughts across the southern Amazon that culminated in widespread Amazon forest fires," said Doug Morton, chief of the Biospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, in the NASA statement.</p><p>Morton, who co-created the Amazon fire season <a href="https://www.ess.uci.edu/~amazonfirerisk/ForecastWeb/SAMFSS2020.html" target="_blank">forecast</a>, analyzes the relationship between climate conditions and active fire detections from NASA satellite instruments to predict fire season severity.</p><p>"Our seasonal fire forecast provides an early indication of fire risk to guide preparations across the region," Morton, noting that the forecast is most accurate three months before the peak of burning in the southern Amazon in September. "Now, satellite-based estimates of active fires and rainfall will be the best guide to how the 2020 fire season unfolds."</p>
<p>Their model suggests that the regions that were hardest hit by the 2019 wildfires are at the highest risk again. Furthermore, the depleted resources as South American countries try to combat the COVID-19 crisis will exacerbate the problem by diminishing firefighting and emergency responder capabilities, according to Newsweek.</p><p>"You have a perfect storm: drought, the recent increase in deforestation, and new difficulties for firefighting. 2020 is set up to be a dangerous year for fires in the Amazon," Morton said.</p><p>The COVID-19 crisis has also allowed deforestation in the tropics to surge as environmental enforcement has weakened, according to recent report from <a href="https://www.conservation.org/blog/poaching-deforestation-reportedly-on-the-rise-since-covid-19-lockdowns" target="_blank">Conservation International</a>.</p><p>"Fire season in the Amazon is influenced by ecological, climatic, social, cultural and economic factors, from sea surface temperatures that influence rainfall in South America, to commodity-driven deforestation and the COVID-19 pandemic," said Karyn Tabor, senior director of ecological monitoring at Conservation International, in a <a href="https://www.conservation.org/press-releases/2020/07/07/conservation-international-reports-on-elevated-2020-fire-risk-in-amazonian-region" target="_blank">recent statement</a>. "Some governments have used widespread focus on the pandemic to quietly roll back environmental protections designed to prevent deforestation which in turn fuels the capacity for future fires to take hold."</p>
<p>Despite the COVID-19 crisis, changing conditions as the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis">climate crisis</a> bears down on the planet is the largest risk for wildfires, along with human activity, according to Yang Chen, Earth scientist at the University of California, Irvine, and co-creator of the Amazon fire season forecast.</p><p>"Changes in human fire use, specifically deforestation, add more year-to-year variability in Amazon fires," Chen said in a NASA statement. "In addition, climate change is likely to make the entire region drier and more flammable – conditions that would allow fires for deforestation or agricultural use to spread into standing Amazon forests."</p>
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A baby receives limited treatment at a hospital in Yemen on June 27, 2020. Mohammed Hamoud / Anadolu Agency / Getty Images
By Andrea Germanos
Oxfam International warned Thursday that up to 12,000 people could die each day by the end of the year as a result of hunger linked to the coronavirus pandemic—a daily death toll surpassing the daily mortality rate from Covid-19 itself.
<p>April saw the highest global daily mortality rate for Covid-19 thus far with just over 10,000 deaths per day.</p><p>Oxfam's warning comes in a new report entitled <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/research/hunger-virus-how-covid-19-fuelling-hunger-hungry-world" target="_blank"><em>The Hunger Virus</em></a>, which the humanitarian group says "shines a light on a food system that has trapped millions of people in hunger on a planet that produces more than enough food for everyone" and that has enabled global food and beverage giants to lavish billions on shareholders since the coronavirus crisis erupted.</p><p>Kadidia Diallo, a female milk producer in Burkina Faso quoted in the report, puts the crisis in stark terms.</p><p>"We are totally dependent on the sale of milk, and with the closure of the market we can't sell the milk anymore," she said. "If we don't sell milk, we don't eat."</p>
<p>The publication says the hunger crisis is set to deepen in already existing "hunger hotspots" like Yemen, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Afghanistan, and Syria. In those locations, the pandemic "has added fuel to the fire of an already growing hunger crisis." But millions of people in other countries are poised to be "tipped over the edge" as the virus rages, with nations including Brazil and India likely to emerge as new hunger hotspots.</p><p>"Covid-19 is the last straw for millions of people already struggling with the impacts of conflict, climate change, inequality, and a broken food system that has impoverished millions of food producers and workers," Oxfam interim executive director Chema Vera said in a <a href="https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/12000-people-day-could-die-covid-19-linked-hunger-end-year-potentially-more-disease" target="_blank">statement</a>. "Meanwhile, those at the top are continuing to make a profit: eight of the biggest food and drink companies paid out over $18 billion to shareholders since January even as the pandemic was spreading across the globe—10 times more than the U.N. says is needed to stop people going hungry."</p><p><em>Hunger Virus</em> attributes the projected daily death toll to "spiraling unemployment and the economic disruption" as a result of measures to contain the pandemic, citing lost wages; lack of unemployment insurance; an estimated 20% drop in remittances—which are "a lifeline for millions of families that are living in poverty"; insufficient or absent social protection policies; evictions that lead to loss of land on which to grow crops; and restrictions that have slowed or barred the delivery of crucial humanitarian aid.</p>
<p>There also appear to be bad actors exacerbating the crisis. From the report:</p><blockquote>There are also worrying signs that some companies are using the pandemic to take advantage of consumers. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index, which tracks the average price supermarkets and other retailers pay for a basket of basic goods, has fallen steadily since January 2020. However, consumer prices are going up in many countries as a result of disruption to local production and supply chains, inflation, panic buying, and potential price gouging (where goods are sold at a much higher price than is considered reasonable or fair). In the USA, for example, consumer prices increased by 2.6% for groceries, on average, but farm income fell.<br></blockquote><p>Many of the issues fueling the fears of starvation existed well before the coronavirus crisis emerged. The report points to "our industrial model of agriculture production, heavily reliant on chemical inputs to grow vast monocrops for export," which "was failing to provide food security and alleviate poverty for millions of people." Further, "the powerful agricultural traders, food and beverage corporations, and supermarkets that dominate the food sector are able to dictate the price and terms of food trade."</p>
<p>The climate crisis was affecting food insecurity before the pandemic, as were conflicts, such as in Syria and Yemen, where millions are facing humanitarian disaster, including insecure, at best, access to food. "Hunger can also be a weapon of war," adds the report. "Warring parties can destroy markets and warehouses, suspend food imports, and cut transportation links to gain power."</p><p>Deep inequality was another standing issue. The report notes:</p><blockquote>[P]rofound inequalities extend to the food system, where unequal access to food rather than insufficient global production is leaving people hungry. Financial investments in large-scale agribusiness are often prioritized, while investments in small-scale producers are woefully neglected. Meanwhile, supermarkets and food and drink companies continue to keep the lion's share of the price consumers pay for their products.</blockquote><p>Urgent action is required, Oxfam says, not only to address the immediate hunger crisis but to "build more resilient and sustainable food systems that work for all people and the planet."</p>
<p>"Governments must contain the spread of this deadly disease," said Vera, "but it is equally vital they take action to stop the pandemic killing as many—if not more—people from hunger."</p><p>The report lays out a number of actions governments should take, including providing emergency assistance; actively engaging women—"the backbone of local food systems"—in joining and leading decisions on fixing food systems; canceling poorer counties' debts, backing U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres's global ceasefire <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/03/24/fury-virus-illustrates-folly-war-un-chief-calls-global-ceasefire" target="_blank">call</a>; and taking swift measures to tackle the climate crisis.</p><p>"Governments can save lives now by fully funding the U.N.'s Covid-19 appeal, making sure aid gets to those who need it most, and cancelling the debts of developing countries to free up funding for social protection and healthcare," said Vera.</p><p>"To end this hunger crisis," she continued, "governments must also build fairer, more robust, and more sustainable food systems, that put the interests of food producers and workers before the profits of big food and agribusiness."</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/07/09/last-straw-pandemic-rages-oxfam-warns-12000-could-die-day-hunger" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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The 2006 oil spill was the largest incident in Philippine history and damaged 1,600 acres of mangrove forests. Shubert Ciencia / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
By Jun N. Aguirre
An oil spill on July 3 threatens a mangrove forest on the Philippine island of Guimaras, an area only just recovering from the country's largest spill in 2006.
<p>This latest spill stems from an explosion onboard a floating power barge in the 13-kilometer (8-mile) waterway between the city of Iloilo and Guimaras Island. Operator AC Energy Inc. said the incident spilled 48,000 liters (12,700 gallons) of fuel oil into the Iloilo River and its tributaries before being contained eight hours later. But the Philippine Coast Guard said around 251,000 liters (66,300 gallons) of oil had spread around the waterway. The day after, July 4, the Coast Guard estimated it had collected 130,000 liters (34,300 gallons) of oil.</p><p>Some of the oil was swept out of the containment area by strong waves and carried across to communities in Guimaras.</p><p>"The root cause has yet to be determined," AC Energy said in a statement. "But initial findings reveal that the discharge is due to the ignition of fuel oil in storage which ruptured the barge's fuel tank."</p><p>AC Energy said it took responsibility for the explosion and that the cleanup could take around two weeks.</p>
<p>Reports from the Iloilo City Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (ICDRRMO) state that the oil spill has affected 321 families along the coast. The provincial office has ordered an immediate evacuation.</p><p>The spill comes as a blow to residents of Guimaras, who, nearly 14 years ago, suffered <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2019/10/saving-an-island-from-the-worst-oil-spill-in-the-philippines-the-case-of-guimaras/" target="_blank">a similar disaster on a bigger scale</a>. On Aug. 11, 2006, the oil tanker M/T Solar, owned by Sunshine Maritime Development Corp. and chartered by Petron, the Philippines' largest oil company, sank off the southern coast of the island, leaking 500,000 liters (132,000 gallons) of bunker fuel.</p><p>The incident was the largest oil spill incident in Philippine history and also considered the worst environmental disaster to hit the country this century. It damaged 648 hectares (1,600 acres) of mangrove forests and seagrass areas, according to the country's environment department. The mangroves only began to show signs of recovery last year, but are now threatened by this latest incident.</p>
<p>To keep the oil from spreading to the mangroves and to protect its 23 coastal villages, Guimaras Governor Samuel T. Gumarin called an emergency meeting. He later ordered spill booms deployed and clearing operations carried out. "We are also still studying the health and environmental impact of the incident," he told Mongabay.</p><p>The spill has disrupted the area's fishing sector, with fishers no longer going out to sea and aquaculture culture farms contaminated. Residents have reported milkfish and lobsters swimming in the oil slick and have reached out to their municipal offices for support.</p><p>Greenpeace Philippines says the oil spill piles environmental and economic pressure on communities already hard hit by the pandemic lockdown. "This oil spill is a big threat to marine life and to the health and livelihoods of communities in Iloilo and Guimaras," campaigner Khevin Yu said in a statement. "Fisherfolk and coastal communities are already struggling to adjust to the logistic and economic impacts of the pandemic that have caused big losses in their sources of income and food security."</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://news.mongabay.com/2020/07/oil-slick-threatens-philippine-mangrove-forest-recovering-from-earlier-spill/" target="_blank">Mongabay</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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People visit Jacksonville Beach on July 4, 2020 in Jacksonville Beach, Florida. Public health experts have attributed Florida's growing coronavirus caseload to people gathering in crowds. Sam Greenwood / Getty Images
Florida broke the national record for the most new coronavirus cases reported in a single day on Sunday, with a total of 15,299.
<p>Florida's Sunday caseload was more than any European country reported during the height of the outbreak there, <a href="https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN24D0I3" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>.</p><p>"If Florida were a country, it would rank fourth in the world for the most new cases in a day behind the United States, Brazil and India," Reuters wrote.</p>
<div id="95919" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="6609e6cc487787d5a8cd3e218c318409"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1282344989419278336" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">MAY 20: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantisFL) brags coronavirus outbreak “hasn’t happened.”
JULY 12: Florida… https://t.co/PPHEMo2twh</div> — Keith Boykin (@Keith Boykin)<a href="https://twitter.com/keithboykin/statuses/1282344989419278336">1594569844.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>It also reported more new cases than did New York when it was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak. Sources are divided on the previous U.S. record. <a href="https://apnews.com/798f9aab3bb2e5fbf733413a99476d7c" target="_blank">The Associated Press reported</a> that California held the previous record with 11,694 new cases on Wednesday, while before the record went to New York with 11,571 on April 15. Reuters, meanwhile, gave the previous record to New York with 12,847 new cases on April 10; <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/us/florida-coronavirus-covid-cases.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> also reported it was held by New York, but with 12,274 new cases April 4. But in any case, the record is an alarming milestone for the Sunshine State with real consequences for its hospitals.</p><p>"It has just been horrifically busy," University of South Florida infectious disease professor John Toney told The New York Times. "It's reminiscent of what everyone dealt with in New York. It's certainly putting a strain on a lot of the systems, even though hospitals are trying to accommodate."</p>
<p>Florida's record comes amidst a surge in cases nationwide and globally. Almost 40 states are seeing cases increase, and the U.S. broke world records by reporting around 60,000 new cases a day for the last four days, Reuters reported. Meanwhile, the World Health Organization reported a record of more than 230,000 new cases total Sunday, according to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/12/world/coronavirus-updates.html" target="_blank">New York Times update</a>. The previous global record was set Friday, with more than 228,000 new cases.</p><p>Public health experts have attributed Florida's growing caseload to people gathering in crowds and moving around once the state began reopening.</p><p>"Bottom line is, more people are mobile and they're not necessarily taking the precautions we think would help," Dr. Marissa Levine, a professor at the University of South Florida College of Public Health, told The New York Times.</p>
<p>University of Florida epidemiologist Dr. Cindy Prins also attributed the spread to people gathering in crowds, gyms and some restaurants, as well as reports of illegal raves and clubs in South Florida.</p><p>"I really do think we could control this, and it's the human element that is so critical. It should be an effort of our country. We should be pulling together when we're in a crisis, and we're definitely not doing it," she told The Associated Press. "I know people want to live their lives. There have been a lot of other times, people have made those sacrifices in order to benefit our society. It's almost like a war effort. That's what we need right now."</p><p>Instead, the state is largely persisting with reopening efforts, which began in early May, <a href="https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/07/12/890216415/florida-smashes-u-s-state-record-of-daily-new-cases-more-than-15-200?utm_term=nprnews&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social" target="_blank">according to NPR</a>. Two of Disney World's parks reopened Saturday, and the other two are scheduled to reopen Wednesday. Schools have also been ordered to reopen for in-person classes in August.</p><p>"We know there are huge, huge costs for not providing the availability of in-person schooling," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, according to The Associated Press. "The risk of corona, fortunately, for students is incredibly low."</p>
<p>The outbreak in Florida is in some ways easier to manage than the outbreak in New York in April, The New York Times pointed out. Some of the increase in caseload is down to increased testing, and hospitals are better supplied and prepared to treat the disease. The state's death rate is also well below New York's at the outbreak's peak there.</p><p>However, daily death totals began rising in the state last week, The Associated Press reported. Health experts predicted this would be the case, since death rates tend to lag behind infection rates by two to four weeks. Florida reported 514 fatalities for this week, an average of 73 per day. It averaged 30 per day three weeks ago.</p><p>The U.S. as a whole reported a seven-day death average of 700 Saturday, up from 471 July 5, but still below the more than 2,200 daily deaths it averaged in mid-April, according to The New York Times.</p><p>Overall, the new coronavirus has sickened 269,811 people in Florida and killed 4,242, the state health department reported.</p>
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Climate Explained: What the World Was Like the Last Time Carbon Dioxide Levels Were at 400ppm
18h
Climate
Marco Bottigelli / Moment / Getty Images
By James Shulmeister
Climate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.
If you have a question you'd like an expert to answer, please send it to climate.change@stuff.co.nz
What was the climate and sea level like at times in Earth’s history when carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was at 400ppm?
<p>The last time global carbon dioxide levels were consistently at or above 400 parts per million (ppm) was around <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14145" target="_blank">four million years ago</a> during a geological period known as the <a href="http://www.geologypage.com/2014/05/pliocene-epoch.html" target="_blank">Pliocene Era</a> (between 5.3 million and 2.6 million years ago). The world was about 3℃ warmer and sea levels were higher than today.</p><p>We know how much carbon dioxide the atmosphere contained in the past by studying ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica. As compacted snow gradually changes to ice, it traps air in bubbles that contain <a href="https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/annals-of-glaciology/article/enclosure-of-air-during-metamorphosis-of-dry-firn-to-ice/09D9C60A8DA412D16645E6E6ABC1892F" target="_blank">samples of the atmosphere at the time</a>. We can sample ice cores to reconstruct past concentrations of carbon dioxide, but this record only takes us back about a million years.</p><p>Beyond a million years, we don't have any direct measurements of the composition of ancient atmospheres, but we can use several methods to estimate past levels of carbon dioxide. One method uses the relationship between plant pores, known as stomata, that regulate gas exchange in and out of the plant. The density of these stomata is <a href="https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/095968369200200109" target="_blank">related to atmospheric carbon dioxide</a>, and fossil plants are a good indicator of concentrations in the past.</p><p>Another technique is to examine sediment cores from the ocean floor. The sediments build up year after year as the bodies and shells of dead plankton and other organisms rain down on the seafloor. We can use isotopes (chemically identical atoms that differ only in atomic weight) of boron taken from the shells of the dead plankton to reconstruct changes in the acidity of seawater. From this we can work out the level of carbon dioxide in the ocean.</p><p>The data from four-million-year-old sediments suggest that <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2010PA002055" target="_blank">carbon dioxide was at 400ppm back then</a>.</p>Sea Levels and Changes in Antarctica
<p>During colder periods in Earth's history, ice caps and glaciers grow and sea levels drop. In the recent geological past, during the most recent ice age about 20,000 years ago, sea levels were at least <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/292/5517/679.abstract" target="_blank">120 meters lower</a> than they are today.</p><p><span></span>Sea-level changes are calculated from changes in isotopes of oxygen in the shells of marine organisms. For the Pliocene Era, <a href="https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2004PA001071" target="_blank">research</a> shows the sea-level change between cooler and warmer periods was around 30-40 meters and sea level was higher than today. Also during the Pliocene, we know the West Antarctic Ice Sheet was <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/nature07867" target="_blank">significantly smaller</a> and global average temperatures were about 3℃ warmer than today. Summer temperatures in high northern latitudes were up to 14℃ warmer.</p><p>This may seem like a lot but modern observations show strong <a href="https://journals.ametsoc.org/jcli/article/23/14/3888/32547" target="_blank">polar amplification</a> of warming: a 1℃ increase at the equator may raise temperatures at the poles by 6-7℃. It is one of the reasons why Arctic sea ice is disappearing.</p>Impacts in New Zealand and Australia
<p>In the Australian region, there was no Great Barrier Reef, but there may have been <a href="https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/BF02537376.pdf" target="_blank">smaller reefs along the northeast coast of Australia</a>. For New Zealand, the partial melting of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is probably the most critical point.</p><p>One of the key features of New Zealand's current climate is that Antarctica is cut off from global circulation during the winter because of the big <a href="https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3402/tellusa.v54i5.12161" target="_blank">temperature contrast</a> between Antarctica and the Southern Ocean. When it comes back into circulation in springtime, New Zealand gets strong storms. Stormier winters and significantly warmer summers were likely in the mid-Pliocene because of a weaker polar vortex and a warmer Antarctica.</p><p>It will take more than a few years or decades of carbon dioxide concentrations at 400ppm to trigger a significant shrinking of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. But recent studies show that <a href="http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/521027/" target="_blank">West Antarctica is already melting</a>.</p><p>Sea-level rise from a partial melting of West Antarctica could easily exceed a meter or more by 2100. In fact, if the whole of the West Antarctic melted it could <a href="http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.695.7239&rep=rep1&type=pdf" target="_blank">raise sea levels by about 3.5 meters</a>. Even smaller increases raise the risk of <a href="https://www.pce.parliament.nz/publications/preparing-new-zealand-for-rising-seas-certainty-and-uncertainty" target="_blank">flooding in low-lying cities</a> including Auckland, Christchurch and Wellington.</p>From Your Site Articles
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By Jo Harper
Investment in U.S. offshore wind projects are set to hit $78 billion (€69 billion) this decade, in contrast with an estimated $82 billion for U.S. offshore oil and gasoline projects, Wood Mackenzie data shows. This would be a remarkable feat only four years after the first offshore wind plant — the 30 megawatt (MW) Block Island Wind Farm off the coast of Rhode Island — started operating in U.S. waters.
<p>According to the Department of Energy (DOE), there are 28 US offshore wind projects in the planning stage, with the biggest clusters along the East Coast, from Massachusetts to Virginia. There are also 15 active commercial leases for offshore wind development in the U.S. and if they are fully built, there is the potential to support approximately 25 GW of offshore wind capacity.<span></span></p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/offshore-us-wind-power-blown-on-course/a-54121338" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>.<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/r/entryeditor/2646394500#/" target="_self"></a></em><em></em></p>
<p>Wind energy, both onshore and offshore, is now the US's top choice for new power, with 39% of new utility-scale power sector additions at 107 GW — enough to power 32 million homes. It is also the largest renewable energy source in the country, supplying over 7% of the nation's electricity.</p><p>The domestic offshore wind market is smaller than the onshore sector, where capacity is now over 100 GW, but growing. "The shift of investment towards offshore wind in the US is due to a decreasing amount of leasable space on land because an increasing number of landowners and communities are objecting to local siting," says Annie Hawkins, Executive Director, Responsible Offshore Development Alliance (RODA).</p><p>"From an environmental perspective, there is a limited amount of space that can reasonably be developed without significant impacts to ocean ecosystems and the existing ocean resource economy," Hawkins adds.</p><p><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/has-the-wind-been-taken-from-the-sails-of-europes-renewable-future/a-50886866" target="_blank">Europe has long been the global leader in offshore wind generation</a>, with the U.S. focused on developing land-based wind facilities. According to industry body WindEurope, overall offshore capacity for European nations is 22 GW, with 4,000 offshore wind turbines erected in the waters of 11 countries, with a combined power generation capacity of 15.8 GW, enough to supply around 15 mid-size cities.</p>
Corporates Shift
<p>Helping to drive offshore growth, U.S. corporate buyers <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/cities-leading-the-transition-to-renewables/a-42850621" target="_blank">are increasingly relying on wind energy to power their businesses</a>. Walmart and AT&T are the two top corporate wind buyers, while 14 newcomers entered the wind market in 2019, including Estée Lauder and McDonald's.</p><p>"Oil and gas companies have jumped into the U.S. offshore wind market, where they can transfer expertise in offshore fossil fuel development to clean energy investments," says Max Cohen, principal analyst, Americas Power & Renewable research at Wood Mackenzie. Many international oil and gas companies have already recognized this huge potential and entered the US offshore wind market, including Orsted, Equinor and Shell.</p><p>"Given the recent tumult in oil prices, fossil fuel companies may more and more be looking to diversify their portfolios, particularly with assets that are contracted or offer returns uncorrelated with oil and gas," Cohen says. "Offshore wind is an area where they may have a comparative advantage, and they can then leverage the experience with that technology to make the leap to onshore wind, solar, and other renewable technologies," he says.</p>East Coast leads the way
<p>"There is enormous opportunity, especially off the East Coast, for wind. I am very bullish," said former Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. "Market excitement is moving towards offshore wind. I haven't seen this kind of enthusiasm from industry since the Bakken shale boom," he said.</p><p>Offshore wind initiatives require excessive upfront spending: a 250 MW venture costs about $1 billion, based on International Energy Agency data, but as costs fall the tipping point after which costs fall faster gets nearer</p><p>"The opportunity has been created by Northeastern states seeing the large price declines for offshore wind in Europe," says Cohen. Onshore wind is historically the lowest cost renewable resource, but is at its most expensive in the Northeast, he adds. "But costs are falling slower than for other technologies," he says.</p><p><a href="https://www.dw.com/en/german-firms-welcome-says-new-jersey-governor/a-45961888" target="_blank">In New England and New York the intense "Not-In-My-Backyard" culture</a> (NIMBYism) also makes offshore wind potentially easier to build, Cohen adds. States along the East Coast are aiming to develop over 28 GW of offshore capacity by 2035, with 16 GW of new targets announced in 2019 alone. To help meet these targets, states and utilities selected 4,404 MW of offshore wind capacity through state-issued solicitations in 2019.</p><p>Offshore wind has also benefited from targets set by east-coast states for electrical energy. New York state aims to have 9,000 MW of capability by 2035. New Jersey has dedicated to have 7,500 MW, while Virginia's governor in April signed the 'Clean Economy Act' which requires at the least 5,200 MW of offshore wind by 2034. Massachusetts is committed to purchasing 1,600MW of offshore wind by 2027.</p><p>"The US has a vast offshore wind energy resource with a technical potential of more than 2,000 gigawatts (GW), or nearly double the nation's current electricity use," says Samuel Brock of the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA).</p>
Jobs and Coastal Revitalization
<p>U.S. wind energy now supports 120,000 US jobs and 530 domestic factories. A study by the University of Delaware predicted that the supply chain needed to build offshore turbines to feed power to seven East Coast states by 2030 would generate nearly $70 billion in economic activity and at least 40,000 full-time jobs. An American Wind Energy Association's (AWEA's) March 2020 report estimated that developing 30,000 MW of offshore wind along the East Coast could support up to 83,000 jobs and $25 billion in annual economic output by 2030.</p><p>Having said that, not all of the jobs are American jobs. The offshore wind developers with commercial leases in the US are all foreign companies. There is growing interest from the shipbuilding sector in the Gulf of Mexico in partnering with offshore wind companies to provide services. As a result, some of the US oil trade associations have submitted comments supporting certain aspects of offshore wind. "However, it is unclear to what extent offshore wind developers plan to use US vessels and crew, and the existing projects did not incorporate US vessels or labor at all," Hawkins says.</p>From Your Site Articles
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