Extreme Heat to Sear Southwest, Plains: Phoenix Could Approach 120 Degrees
By Chris Dolce
Dangerous and potentially deadly heat will spread toward the Southwest this weekend while continuing to impact parts of the Plains and South.
Some cities have already received record-breaking temperatures this week:
- Columbia, Missouri, broke its old record high of 96 degrees (set in 1952) by reaching 99 degrees on Wednesday.
- Des Moines, Iowa, tied its old record high of 96 degrees (set in 1913) on Wednesday.
The most extreme heat in the coming days will be in the Desert Southwest where highs could climb to near 120 degrees, including in Phoenix, where it hasn't been that hot in more than 20 years. The National Weather Service in Phoenix said that heat of this magnitude in their area is rare, dangerous and deadly. Additionally, some cities in the Southwest may get within a few degrees of their all-time record highs for any calendar day in history.
Heat advisories, excessive heat warnings and excessive heat watches have been issued by the National Weather Service for parts of the Mississippi Valley, Plains and the Southwest.
An expansive area of high pressure in the mid-levels of the atmosphere that is taking shape from the central states into Southwest is responsible for the torrid temperatures. When this pattern occurs, the air sinks and warms and the result is very few clouds and extremely high temperatures.
Below are the details on the heat.
Desert Southwest: Hottest in 20+ Years For Some?
High temperatures in the 110s and possibly approaching or exceeding the 120s, will be common in the Desert Southwest starting this weekend and continuing into early next week. Not only that, there won't be much relief from the heat at night with lows staying in the 80s in some areas.
Here are a few notables about the heat, which could reach levels not seen in 20+ years in some locations.
- There is a chance Phoenix could get near 120 degrees on Sunday or next Monday. Phoenix has not hit 120 degrees since July 28, 1995, when it peaked at 121 degrees. The all-time record high in the city is 122 degrees on June 26, 1990.
- Even if the 120-degree mark is not reached, it's likely Phoenix will set some daily record highs. The current standing daily record high temperature in the city Sunday, Monday and Tuesday is 115 degrees each day.
- Low temperatures in Phoenix will only drop into the 80s Sunday, Monday and Tuesday morning.
- The temperature in Tucson has not been as high as 113 degrees in more than 20 years, last occurring in July 1995, according to the National Weather Service.
- It's possible the city could flirt with 115 degrees Sunday into Monday, which has only been reached or exceeded there four times dating back to 1894. The all-time record high in Tucson is 117 degrees.
- Highs in the 110s possible early next week, potentially challenging some daily record highs.
- Lows may only fall into the low to mid 80s early next week.
- Highs in the low 100s are possible this weekend into next week. Daily record highs will be within reach.
The early part of the summer months (June-August) is when the Southwest typically sees its hottest weather. This is before monsoonal moisture arrives, contributing to the development of showers and storms later in summer.
100s in Southern California
Parts of Southern California inland from the coast will also see very hot temperatures this weekend into early next week.
- Highs downtown are likely to be in the middle or upper 90s on Sunday into Monday.
- Triple-digit heat is likely slightly farther inland in Anaheim, Ontario, Riverside and Pasadena.
- Inland valleys away from the coast, highs may push into the 90s or low 100s.
Interior Southern California Deserts:
- High temperatures will push toward the 110s this weekend and may even reach or exceed 120 degrees, including in Palm Springs and Imperial.
Plains, Midwest Heat
The expansive ridge of high pressure will also continue to bring widespread middle 90s to low 100s throughout parts of the Plains and Midwest at times into this weekend. Hot temperatures will also extend into the Southeast through late-week.
Heat index or the "feels like" temperature, will be in the 105-115 degree range for parts of the Plains and South.
Excessive heat warnings are in effect for northern Oklahoma and the Kansas City metropolitan area through Friday.
Heat advisories have been posted for portions of the central and southern Plains, along with portions of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. This includes Little Rock, Arkansas and Dallas.
In some cases, daily record high temperatures will be within reach. Here are a few cities that may come within a few degrees of their record high for the day indicated.
Thursday: Colorado Springs (91 degrees); Paducah, Kentucky (98 degrees)
Friday: St. Louis (99 degrees); Springfield, Missouri (97 degrees)
Saturday: Alamosa, Colorado (90 degrees); Waco, Texas (99 degrees)
How to Prepare For Extreme Heat
This type of heat can be life-threatening for some, especially if you aren't adequately prepared. Remember: heat-related illnesses, such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke, are possible under these extreme conditions. If you are traveling with young children or pets, please do not leave them unattended in a hot vehicle.
The National Weather Service has issued some great heat safety tips.
- Drink before you are thirsty.
- Do not leave kids or pets in the car, even for a minute.
- Reduce time in the sun.
- Avoid strenuous activity; postpone outdoor activities.
- Seek air-conditioned buildings.
- Help the elderly, kids and pets stay cool.
- Keep window blinds closed.
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Women walk from Santa Monica beach after a social media workout on the sand on May 12, 2020 in Santa Monica, California. Al Seib / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Independence Day weekend is a busy time for coastal communities as people flock to the beaches to soak up the sun during the summer holiday. This year is different. Some of the country's most popular beach destinations in Florida and California have decided to close their beaches to stop the surge in coronavirus cases.
<p>In Florida, Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez announced last week that all beaches and parks in the county will close from Friday, July 3, through Tuesday, July 7, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/us/florida-coronavirus-miami-beaches/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported. He added that the closed beaches might not reopen next week if coronavirus cases continue to rise and people are not adhering to social distancing and face mask guidelines.</p><p>"As we continue to see more COVID-19 positive test results among young adults and rising hospitalizations, I have decided that the only prudent thing to do to tamp down this recent uptick is to crack down on recreational activities that put our overall community at higher risk," Gimenez said in a <a href="https://www.miamidade.gov/releases/2020-06-26-mayor-july4-beaches.asp" target="_blank">news release</a> last week.</p>
<p>Once Miami-Dade County made that decision, the ripple effect extended to surrounding areas as one county after another worried about an influx of visitors and started to close beaches as well. Broward County was quick to follow when it <a href="https://twitter.com/FTLCityNews/status/1277288404343050242" target="_blank">tweeted</a> its closures. The domino effect continued with Monroe, Palm Beach, Martin and St. Lucie counties and the city of Vero Beach following Miami-Dade's lead, according to the <a href="https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20200701/despite-6500-new-coronavirus-cases-desantis-questions-beach-closings" target="_blank">Palm Beach Post</a>.</p><p>"The reason why we're doing this is because we feel that we will not be able to provide the necessary safe environment that everyone is entitled to enjoy when they come to our beaches," said Fort Lauderdale Mayor Dean Trantalis, as <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/28/us/florida-coronavirus-miami-beaches/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported.</p>
<p>Across the country, in California, where there are nearly 250,000 coronavirus cases, beaches in Los Angeles will county will be closed for the holiday weekend, from Friday through Monday. That includes a complete ban on fireworks in an effort to "prevent dangerous crowding that results in the spread of deadly COVID-19," the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health said in a statement earlier this week, according to <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/california-closes-beaches-july-4-after-alarming-coronavirus-spike-1514289" target="_blank">Newsweek</a>.</p><p>Los Angeles County Supervisor Janice Hahn <a href="https://twitter.com/SupJaniceHahn/status/1277742020799238146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1277742020799238146%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.newsweek.com%2Fcalifornia-closes-beaches-july-4-after-alarming-coronavirus-spike-1514289" target="_blank">tweeted</a> on Monday: "We had almost 3,000 reported cases just today. We cannot risk having crowds at the beach this holiday weekend," in a post on her official Twitter account.</p>
<p>To the north of Los Angeles, Ventura county will also close all of its county beaches over the weekend. California State Parks will close beach parking lots in Orange, Santa Barbara, Marin, Monterey, San Diego, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Cruz and Sonoma counties, according to <a href="https://ktla.com/news/local-news/l-a-ventura-county-state-beaches-closed-for-4th-of-july-weekend-parking-lots-shuttered-at-o-c-santa-barbara-state-beaches/" target="_blank">KTLA</a>.</p><p>Following those orders, Governor Gavin Newsom announced Wednesday that state beaches in Southern California and the Bay Area will be closed this weekend, as the <a href="https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article243936147.html" target="_blank">Sacramento Bee</a> reported.</p><p>In New England, officials are worried about more than just the coronavirus. While officials in Cape Cod are expecting smaller than usual crowds due to COVID-19, they are warning beach visitors that a large number of great white sharks have been spotted in the area, according to <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/30/cape-cod-issues-great-white-shark-warning-ahead-of-4-july-holiday" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.</p>
<p>Leslie Reynolds, the chief ranger with Cape Cod National Seashore, warned the powerful predators were coming close enough to shore to be a concern for swimmers at a recent news conference.</p><p>"Yes, we're in the middle of a pandemic, but if you choose to recreate in the water off Cape Cod, it is home to white sharks and they're coming close to shore," said Reynolds, as <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/02/us/Cape-cod-sharks.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a> reported.</p><p>Great whites frequently visit the waters off Cape Cod to prey on the large seal colonies that live there.</p><p>"It's kind of like when a new restaurant opens and people realize it's a really good spot, and someone else discovers it and slowly the clientele builds," said Gregory B. Skomal, a senior fisheries scientist at the Massachusetts Division of Marine Fisheries, about the uptick in great whites recently, to The New York Times.</p>
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Fireworks Can Trigger PTSD. Here’s How to Be Considerate While Celebrating July 4th at Home
7h
Health + Wellness
Daily fireworks in many U.S. cities in recent weeks have no doubt been interfering with the sleep and peace of mind of thousands of veterans and others who suffer from PTSD. Flickr / CC by 2.0
For some combat veterans, the Fourth of July is not a time to celebrate the independence of the country they love. Instead, the holiday is a terrifying ordeal. That's because the noise of fireworks – loud, sudden, and reminiscent of war – rocks their nervous system. Daily fireworks in many U.S. cities in recent weeks have no doubt been interfering with the sleep and peace of mind of thousands of veterans.
<p>This reaction is not unique to veterans with post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD. Also affected are millions of others, including civilians, refugees, and first responders. <a href="https://www.starclab.org/members/arash-javanbakht" target="_blank">As a psychiatrist</a> who specializes in trauma and PTSD, I urge you not to overdo an act which causes so much suffering for so many of your fellow Americans.</p>
What Is PTSD?
<p><a href="https://theconversation.com/veterans-refugees-and-victims-of-war-crimes-are-all-vulnerable-to-ptsd-130144" target="_blank">PTSD</a> can occur when someone is exposed to extreme exposure traumatic experience. Typically, the trauma involves a threat of death, serious injury, or sexual violence. Along with war veterans, it happens to refugees; to victims of gun violence, rape and other physical assaults; and to survivors of car accidents and natural disasters like earthquakes or tornadoes.</p><p>PTSD can also happen by witnessing trauma or its aftermath, often the case with <a href="https://www.psychiatry.org/patients-families/ptsd/what-is-ptsd" target="_blank">first responders</a> and <a href="https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-many-faces-anxiety-and-trauma/202006/invisible-wounds-the-frontline-heroes" target="_blank">front-line workers</a>.</p><p>All this adds up to tens of millions of Americans. Up to 30% of combat veterans and first responders, and 8% of civilians, <a href="https://www.ptsd.va.gov/professional/treat/essentials/epidemiology.asp" target="_blank">fulfill the diagnostic criteria for PTSD</a>. And that criteria is not easily met: symptoms of PTSD include nightmares, flashbacks, intrusive trauma memories, difficulty sleeping, avoidance of reminders of trauma, negative emotions, and what we call "hyperarousal symptoms."</p>Fireworks Can Trigger Flashbacks
<p>Hyperarousal, a core component of PTSD, occurs when a person is hyper-alert to any sign of threat – constantly on edge, easily startled and continuously screening the environment.</p><p>Imagine, for instance, stepping down the stairs in the dark after hearing a noise; you're worried an intruder might be downstairs. Then a totally unpredictable loud sound explodes right outside your window.</p><p>For people with PTSD, that sound – reminiscent of gunfire, a thunderstorm or a car crash – <a href="https://theconversation.com/veterans-refugees-and-victims-of-war-crimes-are-all-vulnerable-to-ptsd-130144" target="_blank">can cause</a> a panic attack or trigger flashbacks, a sensory experience that makes it seem as if the old trauma is happening here and now. Flashbacks can be so severe that combat veterans may suddenly drop to the ground, the same way they would when an explosion took place in combat. Later, the experience can trigger nightmares, insomnia or worsening of other PTSD symptoms.</p><p>Those of us who set off fireworks need to ask ourselves: Are those few minutes of fun worth the hours, days, or weeks of torment that will begin for some of our friends and neighbors – including many who put their lives on the line to protect us?</p>Who Else Is Affected?
<p>Millions of others, though not diagnosed with PTSD, may similarly be affected by fireworks. <a href="https://adaa.org/about-adaa/press-room/facts-statistics" target="_blank">One in five Americans</a> have an anxiety disorder, many with symptoms of hyperarousal. Also impacted are those with autism or developmental disabilities; they find it difficult to cope with the noise, or just the drastic change from life routines. Then there are people who have to work, holiday or not: nurses, physicians and first responders, who have to be up at 4 a.m. for a 30-hour shift.</p><h3>How to Reduce the Negative Impact</h3><p>There are ways to reduce how fireworks affect others:</p><ul><li>For those with PTSD, the unexpected nature of fireworks is probably the worst part. So at least make it as predictable as possible. Do it in designated areas during designated times. Don't explode one, for instance, two hours after the designated time window. And avoid setting them off <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/jul/04/fireworks-ptsd-fourth-of-july-veterans-shooting-survivors" target="_blank">on the 3rd</a>. People are less prepared then.</li><li>If you're aware that a veteran or trauma survivor lives in the neighborhood, move the noise as far as possible from their home and give them prior warning. Consider putting a sign in your front yard noting the time you'll set the fireworks.</li><li>Remember, it doesn't have to be super loud to make it fun. Consider using <a href="https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/504964-its-time-for-silent-fireworks" target="_blank">silent fireworks</a>. And you don't have to be the one who lights the fireworks. Simply enjoy watching while your city or township does it safely.</li></ul><h3>Coping With the Stress</h3><p>If you can't stand fireworks, there are ways to reduce the stress:</p><ul><li>If the fireworks are a scheduled event, know the time they start and end.</li><li>Use earplugs or background sounds or music to reduce the intensity of the noise.</li><li>Be with loved ones who will support and help distract you.</li><li>Talk to your therapist, psychiatrist or primary care doctor for help in managing PTSD and anxiety symptoms. <a href="https://theconversation.com/veterans-refugees-and-victims-of-war-crimes-are-all-vulnerable-to-ptsd-130144" target="_blank">Effective treatments</a> are available. Your doctor may provide medication that helps during those difficult hours. But definitely do not get medications from others, as some may have <a href="https://theconversation.com/where-is-my-xanax-rx-why-your-doctor-may-be-concerned-about-prescribing-benzodiazepines-125346" target="_blank">serious consequences</a> if not used properly.</li></ul><p>And finally, don't be shy. You can kindly talk with your fireworks-happy neighbors in advance.</p>
<p>
<em><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/arash-javanbakht-416594" target="_blank">Arash Javanbakht </a>is an </em><em>Associate Professor of Psychiatry, Wayne State University.</em><br/>
</p><p>
<em>Disclosure statement: </em><em><em>Arash Javanbakht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.</em></em>
</p><p>
<em><em></em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://theconversation.com/fireworks-can-torment-veterans-and-survivors-of-gun-violence-with-ptsd-heres-how-to-celebrate-with-respect-for-those-who-served-141731" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</em>
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Koala populations across parts of Australia are on track to become extinct before 2050 unless "urgent government intervention" occurs. Mathias Appel / Flickr
Koala populations across parts of Australia are on track to become extinct before 2050 unless "urgent government intervention" occurs, warns a year-long inquiry into Australia's "most loved animal." The report published by the Parliament of New South Wales (NSW) paints a "stark and depressing snapshot" of koalas in Australia's southeastern state.
<p>"Even before the devastating 2019-2020 bushfires, it was clear that the koala in NSW, already a threatened species, was in significant trouble," says the <a href="https://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/lcdocs/inquiries/2536/Koala%20populations%20and%20habitat%20in%20New%20South%20Wales%20-%20Report%203.pdf" target="_blank">report</a>, adding that previous population estimates counting 36,000 individuals were "outdated and unreliable."</p><p>"Then came the fires. With at least 5,000 koalas lost in the fires, potentially many more, it was deeply distressing but extremely important for committee members to agree to the finding that koalas will become extinct in NSW before 2050 without urgent government intervention."</p>
<p>At least 5,000 animals were lost in the 2019 bushfires responsible for killing more than <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/australia-wildfire-deaths-2644394434.html" target="_self">1 billion animals</a>. Conservation groups <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/koalas-extinction-wildfires-australia-2645408622.html?rebelltitem=2#rebelltitem2" target="_self">warned</a> of the possible extinction in March after projections that the <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/wildfires">wildfires</a> resulted in the loss of <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/koala-rescue-fire-australia-2641408117.html" target="_self">80 percent of habitat</a>, forcing the charismatic marsupials into "<a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/koalas-functionally-extinct-fires-2641450078.html" target="_self">functional extinction</a>."</p><p>Endemic only to the eucalyptus forests in the southeastern and eastern parts of the continent, koalas rely on the trees for both habitat and food, according to <a href="https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/mammals/k/koala/#:~:text=Koalas%20live%20in%20the%20eucalyptus%20forests%20of%20southeastern%20and%20eastern%20Australia." target="_blank">National Geographic</a>. They are threatened by the destruction of habitat through the clearing and fragmentation of their unique habitat, which is further exacerbated by <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-change">climate change</a> and ongoing <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought">drought</a> conditions that have plagued the region for years.</p>
<p>As part of their analysis, the independent committee received more than 5,700 responses and 300 submissions, in addition to nine public hearings and site visitations across several locations. Philip Spark, a wildlife ecologist, warned in the report that successive extreme events in the past had reduced one koala population by as much as half and pushed another to local extinction.</p><p>"With the trees dying and the streams drying there is a recipe for disaster. Koalas are really on the brink of not surviving," said Spark. "A crisis can happen with very little warning."</p>
<p>Citing a report published by the <a href="https://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change</a>, Sparks added that by 2050, one in 100-year events are expected to occur every year with 50-degree Celsius heatwaves in the next 20 years. The committee further found that climate change has a severe impact on koalas and not only affects the quality of their food and habitat, but also compounds the "severity and threats of other impacts, such as <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/drought">drought</a> and bushfires."</p>
<p>The committee made 42 recommendations to ensure the future of the koala, including prioritizing the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation">conservation</a> of koala habitat, establishing more thorough approaches to monitoring koala numbers, and allocating additional resources and funding to conservation projects by calling on the government to protect and restore koala habitat on both public and private land. The report also notes that officials should investigate "without delay" the establishment of the <a href="https://koalapark.org.au/" target="_blank">Great Koala National Park</a>, a proposed public conservation area dedicated to protecting the species. An interim report on Australia's national environmental laws is expected this week and is expected to consider the findings that Australia's iconic species is in need of assistance, reports <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/30/koalas-will-be-driven-to-extinction-by-2050-in-nsw-major-inquiry-finds" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.</p>
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NASA is advancing tools like this supercomputer model that created this simulation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to better understand what will happen to Earth's climate if the land and ocean can no longer absorb nearly half of all climate-warming CO2 emissions. NASA/GSFC
By Jeff Berardelli
For the past year, some of the most up-to-date computer models from the world's top climate modeling groups have been "running hot" – projecting that global warming may be even more extreme than earlier thought. Data from some of the model runs has been confounding scientists because it challenges decades of consistent projections.
<p>"It is concerning, as it increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts," explains Dr. Andrew Gettelman, a cloud microphysics scientist from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in Boulder, Colorado.</p><p>As a result, there's been a real urgency to answer this important question in climate science: Are there processes in some new models that need correcting, or is this enhanced warming a real threat?</p><p>After months of contemplation and study after study, the picture is becoming much more clear, and providing something of a breather. Along with those studies, an unprecedented international research mission, led by NOAA and named ATOMIC, aims to provide climate science with the most sophisticated insights yet into why some models point to more warming.</p>
International Effort to Evaluate Climate Models
<p>For the past 25 years the international community has been evaluating and comparing the world's most sophisticated climate models produced by various teams at universities, research centers, and government agencies. The effort is organized by the World Climate Research Programme under the United Nations World Meteorological Organization.</p><p>Climate models are complicated computer programs composed of millions of lines of code that calculate the physical properties and interactions between the main climate forces like the atmosphere, oceans, and solar input. But models also go a lot further, incorporating other systems like ice sheets, forests, and the biosphere, to name a few. The models are then used to simulate the real-world climate system and project how certain changes, like added pollution or land-use changes, will alter the climate.</p><p>Every few years there is a new comprehensive international evaluation called the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). In the sixth such effort, known as CMIP6 and now under way, experts are reviewing about 100 models.</p><p>Information gleaned from this effort will act as a scientific foundation for the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) next major assessment report, scheduled for release in 2021. The goal of the report – the sixth in 30 years – is to inform the international community about how much the climate has changed, and, importantly, how much change can be expected in coming decades.</p>A Conundrum Emerges
<p>Over the past year, the CMIP6 collection of models being reviewed threw researchers an unexpected curveball: a significant number of the climate model runs showed substantially more global warming than previous model versions had projected. If accurate, the international climate goals would be nearly impossible to achieve, and there would be significantly more extreme impacts worldwide.</p><p>A foundational experiment in every report addresses "sensitivity": If you double levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) that were in the air before the Industrial Revolution, how much warming do the models show? This doubling is not expected for a few more decades, but it is a quick way to communicate the critical role of greenhouse gases in changing the climate.</p><p>The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by 35% since the 1800s because of the burning of fossil fuels. As a result, global temperatures have already increased by more than 2 degrees Fahrenheit.</p><p>In the first IPCC assessment report, published in 1990, the answer to that question about the impact of doubling carbon dioxide gave a fairly wide range of results – between 2.7-8 degrees F of global warming. Since then, four more assessments issued six to seven years apart reached nearly the exact same conclusion on sensitivity.</p><p>But that sensitivity may, for the first time, change significantly in next year's assessment. Why? Because starting last year, numerous models in the CMIP6 collection displayed even bigger spikes in temperature upon doubling of CO2 concentrations. We're in serious trouble if the climate sensitivity falls in the mid or upper range of the previous assessments. But if the new, higher estimates are correct, the impacts on civilization would be catastrophic.</p><div id="63b84" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="1b4b41ed87aff999ca43394f9847f1eb"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1255967704135217153" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">What's the latest on climate sensitivity in the latest climate models? Working from the latest compilation, it's...… https://t.co/bDT2GvuM2j</div> — Gavin Schmidt (@Gavin Schmidt)<a href="https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/statuses/1255967704135217153">1588281010.0</a></blockquote></div><p>According to the highly regarded climate site Carbon Brief, which did an independent evaluation of the model suite, <a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained" target="_blank">30% of models</a> showed a significant increase in their sensitivity to a doubling of atmospheric CO2.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQzMTY0MC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMTA4MDAwOX0.mNhMDAJpLupwtoosUG26MLkswhuoZ3oj9GvK1wnDcNs/img.png?width=980" id="18335" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="e628f9b66a9b44a64e549f621d5adfa6" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
In the above CarbonBrief interactive visualization, the bars offer a comparison in the range of sensitivity in the CMIP5 models (gray) and CMIP6 models (blue).
New and Encouraging Evidence Is Emerging
<p>At first, scientists were uncertain whether the new model runs were on to something, so the international modeling community dug in to produce multiple studies. The results are not yet conclusive, but a gradual collective sigh of relief seems to be materializing.</p><p>"Evidence is emerging from multiple directions that the models which show the greatest warming in the CMIP6 ensemble are likely too warm," explains Dr. Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.</p><p>For example, <a href="https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2020-23/" target="_blank">a study</a> released April 28 evaluated the past performance of the models making up the CMIP6 ensemble. The team assigned weights to each model based upon historical performance of their warming projections, weighing the poorer performing models less. By doing so, both the mean warming and the range of warming scenarios in the CMIP6 ensemble decreased, meaning the warmest models were the ones with weaker historical performance. This result supports a finding that a subset of the models are too warm.</p><p>That conclusion is supported by another new study evaluating one particular model – the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) – that showed greater warming. Using that model, the researchers simulated the climate in the early Eocene era, about 50 million years ago, when rainforests thrived in the Arctic and Antarctic. The CESM2 simulated a historical climate that seems way too warm compared with what is known about that era from geological data, indicating that the model is likely also too warm in its future projections.</p><p>Two other recent studies of the CMIP6 models being evaluated use clever analysis methods to <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/esd-2019-86/&sa=D&ust=1589209938203000&usg=AFQjCNHYwFB-1KqndGfJ4sXdrrm9DpbLaQ" target="_blank">narrow the range</a> of future warming projections and also <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/12/eaaz9549&sa=D&ust=1589209938203000&usg=AFQjCNEhKY1YZ19qgjSZ_hJM14JmzqXOXw" target="_blank">reduce the projected warming</a> of the CMIP6 models by 10 to 15%.</p><p>Through the intensive research spurred by the CMIP6 climate-sensitivity curveball, scientists have been able to turn a confounding challenge into a confidence builder, providing even greater certainty than they had before in both the abilities of the climate science community and in the computer models used. Moreover, the experience has helped unearth uncertainties remaining in the modeling process.</p><p>Experts conclude much of this uncertainty probably lies in the complexity of clouds. "We have been looking as a community at why the models with greater warming are doing what they are doing – and it's tied to cloud feedbacks in the southern mid-latitudes mostly," explains Schmidt.</p><p>In fact, <a href="https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/26/eaba1981" target="_blank">a new study</a> addressing the increased sensitivity was published in Science Advances stating, "Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS [sensitivity] in CMIP6."</p>Understanding the Complexity of Clouds
<p>It's long been known in climate modeling circles that cloud processes and interactions are a potential weak link for climate modeling. That reality has been brought front and center by the urgent challenges posed during this CMIP6 evaluation period, but the current evaluation of models also provides an opportunity for discovery and improvement.</p><p>Cloud complexity comes from the reality that clouds have a multitude of sizes, altitudes, and textures. Some clouds cool Earth by providing shade, reflecting sunlight back into space. Others act like a blanket, trapping heat and warming the world.</p><p>Given that about <a href="https://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/icesat_light.html" target="_blank">70% of the globe</a> is covered by clouds at any given time, it's no surprise that they play an integral role in regulating the climate. The challenge is to figure out which types of clouds will increase, which will decrease, and what the net effect will be on cooling or warming as the climate changes.</p><p><a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1" target="_blank">One study</a> last year reached an alarming conclusion: Left unchecked, the release of CO2 into the atmosphere may lead to a tipping point where shallow low clouds disappear – leading to runaway, catastrophic warming of nearly 15 degrees F. While scientists see that outcome as only a remote possibility, it drives home the urgent need to better understand clouds.</p><p>"We have a saying at NOAA: It isn't rocket science – it's much, much harder than that," quips Dr. Chris Fairall, ATOMIC's lead investigator. "One of the major problems for modeling is there is not clean separation of scales." The photo below is one that Fairall took from the NOAA P-3 aircraft.</p><p>"Think about trying to code up a model that can produce this," Fairall muses. "Huge cloud systems are made up of a spectrum of clouds from the size of Kansas to ones that fit in the trunk of your Volkswagen."</p><p>In the real world and the simulated model world, cloud formation depends partially on how moisture interacts with aerosols, tiny floating particles in the air. Aerosols are fine particles like smoke, sea spray, and pollutants. These tiny dust-like particles act as condensation nuclei, allowing gaseous water vapor to turn into cloud droplets.</p><p>The interplay between clouds, aerosols, and a warming climate in a model affects how much of a cooling or warming influence that model calculates.</p><p>Recently a <a href="https://news.ucar.edu/132678/ncars-new-climate-model-running-hot" target="_blank">new international dataset of emissions</a> – including changes in the concentrations of aerosols – has been introduced into some climate models with improved cloud physics. As a result, some scientists conclude, the changes have affected cloud dynamics in these models, leading to additional warming.</p><p>But despite the increased confidence that a subset of the CMIP6 models are likely overdoing warming projections, Gettelman believes there is at least some merit to the warmer projections because this generation of models has more sophisticated cloud physics.</p><p>So in order to get to the bottom of cloud complexity and improve these vital model projections, the international community is collaborating on a massive research project.</p>
Investigating the Secrets of Clouds
<p>To address the urgent question about the dynamics and role of clouds in a warming world, NOAA and European partners launched their ongoing research effort unprecedented in scale. The U.S. contribution, ATOMIC – short for Atlantic Tradewind Ocean-Atmosphere Mesoscale Interaction Campaign – is an international science mission that was featured recently on "<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/video/study-aims-to-examine-links-between-climate-change-and-clouds/" target="_blank">CBS This Morning: Saturday</a>."</p><img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQzMTY3Mi9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYyMTkxMzE4NX0.KipK5ToH8BNyOLqIduVwDNxTkFSZ4NkPXUj80jwip3U/img.jpg?width=980" id="71223" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="7583cf9e20b249877e26b76b9679d491" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" /><p>"The research that originally motivated this project was <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10712-017-9428-0" target="_blank">an analysis</a> that showed that the single biggest factor that separated the CMIP models into big warming and not so big warming was treatment of shallow convective clouds," Fairall explains.</p><p>The best places to find shallow convective clouds are tropical waters. So in February, a group of scientists from more than 40 partner institutions from countries including the U.S., Germany, France, and the U.K. painstakingly probed hundreds of miles of tropical air and sea near the island of Barbados. They used every tool in their arsenals: five research aircraft, four large fact-finding vessels, buoys, radar and futuristic air and ocean drones to examine the makeup of these complicated and crucial clouds.</p><p>Scientists expect that the vast, concurrent and diverse types of observations captured in ATOMIC will allow them to improve how clouds are represented in climate models, enabling them to make more precise predictions of future climate and impacts.</p><p>Fairall says the data from ATOMIC is ideal for such assessments, and he expects the findings will inform the upcoming 2021 comprehensive IPCC report. With the data from ATOMIC still being analyzed, scientists have not yet reached conclusions.</p><p>On the whole, however, these unprecedented research efforts to troubleshoot discrepancies in the latest models have already borne critical fruit. They are providing scientists with more insights, illustrating the crucial value of the scientific method, lending credibility to the capability of climate models, and helping build more confidence within the climate science community.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/some-new-climate-models-are-projecting-extreme-warming-are-they-correct/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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A child stands in what is left of his house in Utuado, Puerto Rico, which was almost completely destroyed by Hurricane Maria, on Oct. 12, 2017. U.S. Coast Guard Petty Officer 1st Class Jon-Paul Rios. Flickr, CC by 2.0
By Mark Hertsgaard and Kyle Pope
To hear many journalists tell it, the spring of 2020 has brought a series of extraordinary revelations. Look at what the nation has learned: That our health-care system was not remotely up to the challenge of a deadly pandemic. That our economic safety net was largely nonexistent. That our vulnerability to disease and death was directly tied to our race and where we live. That our political leadership sowed misinformation that left people dead. That systemic racism and the killing of Black people by police is undiminished, despite decades of protest and so many Black lives lost.
To hear many journalists tell it, the spring of 2020 has brought a series of extraordinary revelations. Look at what the nation has learned: That our health-care system was not remotely up to the challenge of a deadly pandemic. That our economic safety net was largely nonexistent. That our vulnerability to disease and death was directly tied to our race and where we live. That our political leadership sowed misinformation that left people dead. That systemic racism and the killing of Black people by police is undiminished, despite decades of protest and so many Black lives lost.
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<p>Journalism is now engaged in explaining and contextualizing this moment, a frenzy of feature writing prompted by the filling of morgues and the throngs of people in the streets. Some of these pieces will be impressive; a few will win our most prestigious journalism prizes. We'll look back at the spring of 2020 and congratulate ourselves on the central role played by professional reporters, who helped the nation navigate these crises.</p><p>But let's save the self-congratulations. While it is true that the virus and the uprising in the streets have exposed deep injustices and inequities in our nation, none of them are new.</p><p>This summer and fall, all of these stories will crash together as Americans vote in an election that is also a decisive turning point in the overarching story of our time—the onrushing climate emergency. This summer, scientists say, will bring heat waves, wildfires, <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/environment/coronavirus-hurricanes/" target="_blank">and "one of the most active" hurricane seasons on records</a>. Protests against racial injustice may well rise along with temperatures, no doubt fueled by more videos of pain and death. In the fall, our health crisis may well increase, as the COVID-19 pandemic collides with the seasonal flu, all while the US economy continues to experience Great Depression levels of unemployment. It is to the shame of journalism if we don't get to the root of why all of this is happening so that voters can make informed choices in November.</p>
<p>It's worth remembering the media hand-wringing that followed the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Mainstream news outlets, out of touch and understaffed, reported largely from inside their own establishment bubbles, and few in those confined spaces believed Trump had a shot at winning the presidency. So the press missed the story. It didn't understand the stirring of disaffection in the country; it underestimated the racism and economic fear that would drive white people to support Trump; it misread polling and cherry-picked data to convince itself that a Trump loss was inevitable.</p><p>In a presidential election, the media's job is to understand the electorate, not predict the outcome before voters have cast ballots. Four years ago, reporters and editors became too obsessed with political gamesmanship, personality, and trivia to do the media's primary job. The result was a humiliating defeat for journalism and an acceleration of the mistrust of the press that already existed.</p><p>At the start of the 2020 election year, despite pledges by newsroom leaders to do better, the same tendencies showed. Trump was defining the narrative. Structural chasms in the country were ignored. The Democratic field was reduced to caricature.</p><p>Then came the coronavirus and the police killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, and Ahmaud Arbery, among too many others. Exactly none of what we as journalists learned about our nation in the past three months should have come as a surprise. We have known, or should have known, that the public health system in the US is overpriced and unequal. We have known, or should have known, that Americans are not equipped to withstand an economic downturn. We have known, or should have known, that racial injustice is pervasive in our country (and in our media) and that Black people continue to die, be incarcerated, and suffer economically at tragically disproportionate rates.</p>
<p>The fact that it took a pandemic, police killings, and mass protests to focus mainstream journalistic attention on these issues is damning, and must prompt a reappraisal of how we work. Why weren't newsrooms obsessing about these issues before the world imploded this spring? Why must we always be reactive to injustice, instead of proactively highlighting it? Isn't it the job of journalism to ferret out wrongdoing even if people in power want it to remain hidden? Why aren't we advocating for our audiences and their lives?</p><p>Which brings us to the climate crisis. This summer, wildfires will ravage the American west. Deadly heat will pound the global south. Hurricanes will march up the Atlantic coast. Homes, and perhaps whole communities, will be lost. Crops and people will die.</p><p>If the journalistic status quo holds, news organizations will respond by going into disaster-coverage mode, mobilizing their dwindling staffs to cover the crisis as it unfolds. They'll take astonishing pictures of the destruction and hear heroic stories from survivors and rescue workers. They'll tally up the economic costs and run heartbreaking profiles of families who died in their swimming pools while trying to escape the fire or children who were washed out to sea. And then, only after the work of covering the disaster is done, will they perhaps take a moment to examine why all this is happening—why these disasters are occurring, again and again, all over the world, with increased frequency and ferocity.</p><p>There's a pattern here. The news business waits for news to happen when, in fact, we shouldn't need another Black person to be shot to start reporting on racism in the police force. Nor should we need yet another Category Five hurricane to flatten yet another community before we sound the alarm that the planet is on the brink of climate collapse.</p><p><span></span>These are deep, structural stories that are all linked. Novel viruses like COVID-19 often begin in wild animals, many of which are coming into closer contact with humans because their habitats are being destroyed by deforestation, mining, and <a href="https://www.thenation.com/article/environment/coronavirus-habitat-loss/" target="_blank">other extractive activities</a>. The first line of infection is often among disadvantaged communities. The heat waves, droughts, storms, and other effects of rising temperatures almost always punish the poor and people of color first and worst.</p>
<p>Where we are in covering the climate-emergency story? Not remotely close to where we should be. The <em>Columbia Journalism Review</em> and <em>The Nation</em>, in partnership with the <em>Guardian</em>, co-founded Covering Climate Now a year ago because we were convinced that most newsrooms were not doing enough to tell the climate story. Over the past year, we have made impressive progress. <a href="https://www.coveringclimatenow.org/partners/" target="_blank">Our partners</a> now include more than 400 news outlets representing more than 50 countries, with a combined audience of roughly 2 billion people. Our collaboration has done weeks of joint coverage that yielded thousands of additional climate stories. During our first week of joint coverage, last September, Google searches for the term "climate change" <a href="https://grist.org/article/google-searches-for-climate-change-finally-beat-out-game-of-thrones/" target="_blank">were the highest in history</a>. And some news outlets that are not Covering Climate Now partners also have upped their game, hiring dedicated climate editors, adding and deepening climate coverage, and including climate among the key issues in the 2020 elections.</p><p>And yet. And yet. And yet.</p><p>While we have been heartened (and grateful) to see so many of our colleagues join this effort, we still don't sense the urgency that the climate emergency demands, especially as the 2020 election approaches. Our window to prevent catastrophe is closing fast. In some respects, it has already shut: at least three feet of sea level rise is inevitable by 2100, and possibly much sooner, scientists say, compelling the relocation of millions of people and trillions of dollars worth of coastal infrastructure <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/may/08/sea-levels-could-rise-more-than-a-metre-by-2100-experts-say" target="_blank">around the world</a>.</p>
<p>The public sees the urgency and actually wants more climate news. Even during the peak of coronavirus coverage in April, some of the world's biggest news organizations told us that their audiences had little appetite for stories that weren't about the virus, with one exception: climate change, which continued to generate significant traffic.</p><p>Journalism now has a window of opportunity to get these interconnected stories right. Editorially, we are urging our partners—and journalists everywhere—to play the climate story bigger. It's not enough to do one story on one candidate's position on climate change and be done with it. Climate change should be a continuing part of the narrative about any candidate's campaign, just as the candidate's positions on COVID-19, the economy, and health care are. The word "climate" should be included in headlines and broadcast scripts often enough that the public can't miss it.</p><p>Above all, we hope newsrooms will remember the big picture and cover the real horserace. It's easy for campaign coverage to get mired in minutia. The contest between Republicans and Democrats is of great interest, of course, and the outcome couldn't matter more. But the horserace that matters most is humanity's collective race to defuse the climate emergency, which means strong action must begin now, not four years from now. What's ultimately being decided in these elections is nothing less than whether all of us are going to have a livable planet 20 years from now and beyond. If the press is most comfortable chasing fires and sending reporters into disaster zones, so be it. But newsrooms should know: the disaster is here. It is raging now. Our job is to cover it with the urgency it deserves.</p>
<p class=""><em>This story originally appeared in </em><a href="https://www.cjr.org/" target="_blank">Columbia Journalism Review</a><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/r/entryeditor/2646313949#/" target="_self"></a> <em>and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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President Trump's claim last September that Hurricane Dorian was headed for Alabama's gulf coast was quickly refuted by employees at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). An independent investigation found that NOAA's chief violated the agency's ethics when he backed Trump's warning and doctored map that used a Sharpie to alter the storm's path, as EcoWatch reported.
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<p>Questions linger as to why NOAA officials decided to support Trump's inaccurate warnings. Apparently, the U.S. Department of Commerce, which oversees NOAA, does not want the public to know. The Commerce Department has impeded an inspector general's investigation into whether or not the administration coerced officials into supporting a false narrative and is blocking a release of the report, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>In a <a href="https://www.oig.doc.gov/OIGPublications/2020-07-01_IG_Memorandum_to_Secretary_Ross_re_OIG-20-031-I_%28SECURED%29.pdf" target="_blank">memo </a>from Inspector General Peggy Gustafson to Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, she takes the rare step of publicly airing a dispute between an agency inspector general and a cabinet secretary, according to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/02/commerce-ig-sharpiegate-dispute/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>. In the memo, she claims that Ross' office "thwarted" the publication of her report. She claims that the Commerce Department has claimed that portions of the report cannot be made public, but they have not specified which portions, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p><p>The department's refusal to cooperate with the release of the investigation "appears to be directly linked to the content of our report and the findings of responsibility of the high-level individuals involved," Gustafson wrote, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/climate/trump-dorian-noaa-investigation.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>The full report has not been released, but on Monday, a <a href="https://www.oig.doc.gov/OIGPublications/OIG-20-032-I.pdf" target="_blank">summary</a> was posted that said that the department led a "flawed process that discounted NOAA participation," and also "required NOAA to issue a Statement that did not further NOAA's or [National Weather Service's (NWS)] interests," as <a href="https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/505246-commerce-department-led-flawed-process-on-sharpiegate-watchdog" target="_blank">The Hill</a> reported.</p><p>That summary also said that NOAA "failed to account for the public safety intent of the NWS Birmingham tweet and the distinction between physical science and social science messaging."</p><p>That failure to account for public safety came from NOAA's officials walking back a tweet from the NWS Birmingham's office that said "Alabama will NOT see any impacts from Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane Dorian will be felt across Alabama."</p>
<p>It turns out the unsigned statement that contradicted NWS Birmingham's tweet was the result of pressure from the White House on Secretary Ross, who oversees NOAA and who threatened to fire the political staff at NOAA unless the contradiction of Mr. Trump was addressed, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>The full report was supposed to be released on Tuesday, but it has yet to be released, which prompted the unusual memo from Gustafson. As The Washington Post reported, Senator Maria Cantwell, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee, said: "This situation has gone from bad to worse. Secretary Ross must immediately cease this campaign to keep the public in the dark. The Inspector General is doing their job and the public deserves to see the report. Release the report now, Mr. Secretary."</p>
<p>The Washington Post also noted that this year NOAA's credibility is particularly important as forecasters are predicting an active <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/hurricanes">hurricane</a> season amidst the coronavirus pandemic, which is seeing a surge in vulnerable states like Florida and Texas. The need to social distance will pose unprecedented challenges for storm preparation, evacuation and response. That means NOAA's forecasts and advice need to have ironclad credibility since they are integral to public safety.</p>
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Trending
In ‘Conservation Disaster,’ Hundreds of Botswana's Elephants Are Dying From Mysterious Cause
11h
Animals
African bush elephants in the Makgadikgadi Pans Game Reserve in Botswana on Nov. 22, 2016. Michael Jansen / Flickr
More than 350 elephants have died in Botswana since May, and no one knows why.
<p><a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/poaching" target="_self">Poaching</a> has been ruled out, because no tusks have been removed from the elephants' bodies, but it is possible the animals are dying of a disease that could spread to the human population.</p><p>"Yes, it is a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/conservation" target="_self">conservation</a> disaster — but it also has the potential to be a <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/public-health" target="_self">public health</a> crisis," <a href="https://t.co/FOYIlddwzZ?amp=1" target="_blank">National Park Rescue</a> Director of Conservation Dr. Niall McCann told <a href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-africa-53257512" target="_blank">BBC News</a>.</p>
<div id="9deed" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="101a9cd3a64051511e2bb793a9782a58"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1278329244767137792" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">A catastrophic die-off of elephants is happing in northern Botswana, and no one knows why. It’s vital that a team o… https://t.co/G4VlI5hZJA</div> — Niall McCann (@Niall McCann)<a href="https://twitter.com/NiallPMcCann/statuses/1278329244767137792">1593612416.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Botswana's tourism ministry first said that it was investigating the deaths in mid-May, when 12 dead elephants were found over two weekends in the country's Okavango Delta, <a href="https://phys.org/news/2020-05-botswana-probes-mysterious-death-elephants.html" target="_blank">Phys.org reported</a> at the time.</p><p>By the end of May, 169 elephants had died, and that number had more than doubled by mid-June, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/01/more-than-350-elephants-dead-in-mysterious-mass-die-off-botswana-aoe" target="_blank">The Guardian reported</a>.</p><p>"This is totally unprecedented in terms of numbers of elephants dying in a single event unrelated to drought," McCann told BBC News.</p><p>But despite the scale of the deaths, the government has not yet completed testing of the animals to determine the cause, earning the criticism of conservation groups.</p>
<p>"There is real concern regarding the delay in getting the samples to an accredited laboratory for testing in order to identify the problem — and then take measures to mitigate it," <a href="https://eia-international.org/" target="_blank">Environmental Investigation Agency</a> Executive Director Mary Rice told The Guardian. "The lack of urgency is of real concern and does not reflect the actions of a responsible custodian. There have been repeated offers of help from private stakeholders to facilitate urgent testing which appear to have fallen on deaf ears … and the increasing numbers are, frankly, shocking."</p>
<p>The government, meanwhile, attributed the delay to the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic.</p><p>"We have sent [samples] off for testing and we are expecting the results over the next couple of weeks or so," Dr. Cyril Taolo, acting director for Botswana's department of wildlife and national parks, told The Guardian. "The Covid-19 restrictions have not helped in the transportation of samples in the region and around the world. We're now beginning to emerge from that and that is why we are now in a position to send the samples to other laboratories."</p><p>Taolo said the government had confirmed 280 out of 350 reported deaths and is working to confirm the rest.</p>
<p>Local reports indicate that animals of all ages and sexes are dying, with some spotted wandering in circles, a sign of neurological damage. The cause is likely a poison or disease, but experts are not sure which.</p><p>More than 100 elephants died in October 2019 in a suspected anthrax outbreak, Phys.org reported, but McCann told BBC News he had tentatively ruled out anthrax as the cause of the most recent deaths. Cyanide poisoning used by poachers is another possibility, but scavengers are not dying after eating the carcasses, The Guardian pointed out.</p><p>"It is only elephants that are dying and nothing else," McCann told BBC News. "If it was cyanide used by poachers, you would expect to see other deaths."</p>
<p>Botswana hosts the world's largest elephant population at more than 135,000 animals, about a third of all the elephants in Africa, Phys.org pointed out. The Okavango Delta, meanwhile, is home to 10 percent of Botswana's total population, or around 15,000 animals. African elephants are considered vulnerable by the <a href="https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/12392/3339343" target="_blank">International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List</a>. Botswana was considered one of the safest countries for elephants until recently, <a href="https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-elephants-have-died-in-botswana-for-months-and-we-still-don-t-know-why" target="_blank">Science Alert pointed out</a>. But the government made a controversial decision to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/botswana-lifts-elephant-ban-2637907016.html" target="_self">lift</a> its elephant hunting ban in May of 2019, and poaching is on the rise. An <a href="http://elephantswithoutborders.org/" target="_blank">Elephants Without Borders</a> study <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S096098221930675X" target="_blank">published in Current Biology last year</a> found that new elephant carcasses in northern Botswana had increased by 593 percent between 2014 and 2018 and that at least 385 elephants had been poached between 2017 and 2018.</p>
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