By Tim Radford
Ethnic conflict linked to tragic episodes of civil war, waves of refugees and even the collapse of nation states could be made more likely by climate-related disasters.
A team of European scientists say they can demonstrate, "in a scientifically sound way," a link between civil violence based on ethnic divisions and episodes of drought, intense heat or other climate-linked weather extremes.
That climate change seems to be a factor in social collapse is now fairly firmly established. Researchers have identified evidence of prolonged drought that preceded the collapse of Assyrian and Bronze Age civilizations in prehistory.
And they have also made a connection between the worst drought in almost a thousand years in the Middle East and the continuing humanitarian tragedy of modern Syria.
Repeated Warnings
There have also been repeated warnings that, without concerted international action, global temperatures driven by rising greenhouse gas emissions could rise to make life almost intolerable in regions already increasingly insecure.
The latest finding carries lessons for a planet that has yet to confront the demands of climate change.
Researchers who looked at the patterns of political disturbance and climate-related events weren't especially concerned with climate change: They were looking for connections. And they found one: a demonstrable probability that inter-ethnic divisions could be brought to flashpoint by extended periods of drought.
They report in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that in the study period of 1980 to 2010, almost a quarter of all armed conflict in ethnically-divided societies could be connected to extremes of heat or drought.
"Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically-fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way," they concluded.
"This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions—including North and Central Africa, as well as Central Asia—are exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and are characterized by deep ethnic divides."
The scientists matched data from the reinsurance group Munich Re—which for decades has been recording disaster-related economic damage on a national level—with records of armed conflict.
They then used a mathematical method of coincidence event analysis to see whether a pattern emerged. And even without any accounting for climate change, there it was: a connection between ethnic bloodshed and climate calamity.
Enhancing Risk
Study leader Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, scientific adviser at the Berlin think tank Climate Analytics and researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), said: "Climate disasters are not directly triggering conflict outbreak, but may enhance the risk of a conflict breaking out that is rooted in context-specific circumstances. As intuitive as this might seem, we can now show this in a scientifically sound way."
His co-author, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, director of PIK, said:
"Armed conflicts are among the biggest threats to people, killing some and forcing others to leave their home and maybe flee to far-away countries. Hence, identifying ethnic divide and natural disasters as enhancing destabilization risks is potentially quite relevant.
"Human-made climate change will clearly boost heatwaves and regional droughts. Our observations, combined with what we know about increasing climate-change impacts, can help security policy to focus on risk regions.
"So our study adds evidence of a very special co-benefit of climate stabilization: peace."
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The Firefly Watch project is among the options for aspiring citizen scientists to join. Mike Lewinski / Wikimedia Commons / CC by 2.0
By Tiffany Means
Summer and fall are great seasons to enjoy the outdoors. But if you're already spending extra time outside because of the COVID-19 pandemic, you may be out of ideas on how to make fresh-air activities feel special. Here are a few suggestions to keep both adults and children entertained and educated in the months ahead, many of which can be done from the comfort of one's home or backyard.
<p><a href="https://www.cocorahs.org/" target="_blank">The Community Collaborative Rain, Hail, and Snow Network</a> (CoCoRaHS)</p><p><em>Open to U.S. and Canada residents</em></p><p>CoCoRaHS invites those with a penchant for precipitation to join its grassroots observation network. By observing, recording, and reporting daily accumulations of rain, snow, and hail in their own backyards, volunteers help fill in "holes" in the official network of precipitation gage data. Over time, these local observations will serve as a record of local climate. And climatologists will use this data to help put extreme precipitation events into historical context and to identify precipitation patterns.</p><p><a href="https://www.massaudubon.org/get-involved/citizen-science/firefly-watch" target="_blank">Firefly Watch</a></p><p><em>Open to U.S. and Canada residents</em></p><p>The Firefly Watch project seeks to answer the question of whether fireflies are disappearing from our summer evenings. Firefly enthusiasts interested in participating are asked to devote a minimum of 10 minutes weekly to observing firefly activity in their backyards or at other grassy locations. Sightings (or lack thereof) are then reported in an online database, along with basic weather conditions. In time, researchers hope the data gathered may help highlight the extent to which climate change has harmed fireflies, whether through loss of habitat or earlier peak appearance.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.zooniverse.org/projects/penguintom79/penguin-watch" target="_blank">Penguin Watch</a></p><p><em>Open to residents worldwide</em></p><p>The Penguin Watch project aims to better understand the environmental threats responsible for the decline in penguin colonies. Volunteers will view short videos and image stills of Adélie, king, and other penguins captured by cameras around the Southern Ocean and Antarctic Peninsula, then count the number of visible adult penguins, chicks, and eggs. In summer 2020, the project is transitioning from monitoring penguin breeding patterns to monitoring foraging behavior.</p><p><a href="https://monarchwatch.org/calendar/" target="_blank">Monarch Watch</a></p><p><em>Open to U.S. residents</em></p><p>A nonprofit conservation and research program based at the University of Kansas, Monarch Watch depends on monarch butterfly and entomology enthusiasts to help investigate the decade-long decline in monarch butterfly numbers. By tracking counts of adult monarch butterflies and the timing of their north-south migrations, volunteers help researchers better predict the fall migration and overwintering population size – two characteristics that are influenced by weather and climate.</p>
<p><a href="http://amoywg.org/research-and-monitoring/" target="_blank">Re-sighting oystercatchers</a><br><em>Open to residents and tourists of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts</em></p><p>Barrier island beachgoers from Maine to Mexico can help monitor American oystercatcher populations by reporting "banded" birds to the American Oystercatcher Working Group. Upon spotting a flock of oystercatchers during the breeding, nesting, or migration seasons, volunteers are asked to note and report (or better yet, photograph) the color, code, and positioning of bracelets on the shorebirds' legs. Re-sighting assists scientists in researching environmental threats, such as sea-level rise, on the migration habits and feeding or nesting resources of these orange-beaked shorebirds, which are a species of "special concern" in some states.</p><p><a href="https://www.outdoors.org/conservation/climate-energy/citizen-science" target="_blank">Mountain Watch</a><br><em>Open to New Hampshire and Maine residents and tourists</em></p><p><span></span>The Appalachian Mountain Club encourages hikers to help scientists study climate change and its effects on the flowering and fruiting times of Appalachian flora through the Mountain Watch program. The program, which partners with the iNaturalist app, asks Appalachian Trail-goers to use their mobile devices to photograph plant life found in the White Mountain National Forest. Those images are automatically geo-tagged with date and location coordinates, which then assist researchers in learning more about the characteristics of forest and alpine vegetation.</p>
<p><a href="https://eorhawaii.org/about-eyes-of-the-reef/" target="_blank">Eyes of the Reef Hawai'i</a><br><em>Open to Hawai'i residents and tourists</em></p><p>The Eyes of the Reef is a statewide reporting network that encourages Hawai'ian Island ocean enthusiasts, fishers, and community members to assist in protecting Hawai'i's local reefs. Participants are asked to identify and report unhealthy reefs so that coral disease, coral bleaching, and invasive species spread events can be monitored by scientists as early as possible. Seventy to 90% of coral reefs will be killed off by warming oceans, ocean acidification, and pollution in the next 20 years, according to <a href="https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2020/02/24/climate-change-could-kill-coral-reefs/" target="_blank">a recent study</a> by a researcher at the University of Hawai'i at Mānoa. Coral reefs may be eliminated worldwide by the year 2100.</p>
<p><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/7-climate-conscious-citizen-science-projects/" target="_blank">Yale Climate Connections</a>.</em></p><h5></h5>
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People sit at the bar of a restaurant in Austin, Texas, on June 26, 2020. Texas Governor Greg Abbott ordered bars to be closed by noon on June 26 and for restaurants to be reduced to 50% occupancy. Coronavirus cases in Texas spiked after being one of the first states to begin reopening. SERGIO FLORES / AFP via Getty Images
The coronavirus may linger in the air in crowded indoor spaces, spreading from one person to the next, the World Health Organization acknowledged on Thursday, as The New York Times reported. The announcement came just days after 239 scientists wrote a letter urging the WHO to consider that the novel coronavirus is lingering in indoor spaces and infecting people, as EcoWatch reported.
<p>The <a href="https://academic.oup.com/cid/article/doi/10.1093/cid/ciaa939/5867798" target="_blank">letter</a>, written by two scientists from Australia and the U.S. and published in the journal <em>Clinical Infectious Diseases, </em>said that studies have shown "beyond any reasonable doubt that viruses are released during exhalation, talking and coughing in microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in the air."</p><p>The WHO had previously dismissed those concerns, but that position is quickly changing.</p><p>"We have to be open to this evidence and understand its implications regarding the modes of transmission, and also regarding the precautions that need to be taken," said Benedetta Allegranzi, technical leader of the WHO task force on infection control, as <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02058-1" target="_blank"><em>Nature</em></a> reported.</p>
<p>Its <a href="https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations" target="_blank">new scientific report</a> released details on how the coronavirus that leads to COVID-19 can pass from one person to the next by staying in the air during medical procedures, or, for example, in crowded restaurants, choir practices and fitness classes, as <a href="https://apnews.com/648feb226473f9841920abd6ffb004c7" target="_blank">The Associated Press</a> reported.</p><p>"In these events, short-range aerosol transmission, particularly in specific indoor locations, such as crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces over a prolonged period of time with infected persons cannot be ruled out," the United Nations health agency's new guidance said, as <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/09/airborne-transmission-of-coronavirus-in-restaurants-gyms-and-other-closed-spaces-cant-be-ruled-out-who-says.html" target="_blank">CNBC</a> reported.</p><p>And yet, the WHO said more research is "urgently needed to investigate such instances and assess their significance for transmission of COVID-19."</p>
<p>In the updated brief, the WHO also pointed out more directly than it previously had that people who do not have symptoms may spread the virus. "Infected people can transmit the virus both when they have symptoms and when they don't have symptoms," the agency said, as The New York Times reported.</p><p>Prior to the new brief, the WHO said asymptomatic transmission was probably "very rare."</p><p>As <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/09/health/airborne-transmission-coronavirus-who-brief/index.html" target="_blank">CNN</a> reported, WHO's <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-how-is-covid-19-transmitted" target="_blank">website also noted </a>that "there have been reported outbreaks of COVID-19 in some closed settings, such as restaurants, nightclubs, places of worship or places of work where people may be shouting, talking, or singing. In these outbreaks, aerosol transmission, particularly in these indoor locations where there are crowded and inadequately ventilated spaces where infected persons spend long periods of time with others, cannot be ruled out. More studies are urgently needed to investigate such instances and assess their significance for transmission of COVID-19."</p>
<p>The new guidelines continue to suggest that people avoid crowds and ensure that buildings are well-ventilated. Some experts were pleased to see the revised guidelines, but felt they were not as extensive as they could have been.</p><p>"This is a move in the right direction, albeit a small one. It is becoming clear that the pandemic is driven by super-spreading events, and that the best explanation for many of those events is aerosol transmission," said Jose Jimenez, a chemist at the University of Colorado who signed the letter in <em>Clinical Infectious Diseases</em>, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-airborne/new-who-guidance-calls-for-more-evidence-on-airborne-transmission-idUSKBN24A2E5" target="_blank">Reuters</a> reported.</p><p>Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told reporters in a press briefing on Thursday that there is not a lot of evidence about airborne transmission yet, but he added, "I think it's a reasonable assumption that it does occur," as Reuters reported.</p><p>He went on to say, the evidence so far is "the fundamental basis for why we are now so intent on getting people — particularly people without symptoms — to wear masks. To be able to see if we can mitigate against that."</p>
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A never-before-documented frog species has been discovered in the Peruvian highlands and named Phrynopus remotum. Germán Chávez
By Angela Nicoletti
The eastern slopes of the Andes Mountains in central Perú are among the most remote places in the world.
<p>At elevations of 12,000 feet, some patches of cloud forest linger, blanketing the rocky ground and grasslands. Scattered across those grasslands are stones, surrounded by moss and lichens.</p><p>And hidden beneath those stones are small, brownish-grey frogs with short limbs and stout bodies. They don't live near water, so they never begin life as tadpoles. Instead, they hatch directly out of the eggs as froglets.</p><p>These unique frogs may have existed under those stones for centuries. But they were unknown to science — until now. <a href="https://case.fiu.edu/about/directory/profiles/catenazzi-alessandro.html" target="_blank">Alessandro Catenazzi</a>, a Florida International University (FIU) biologist in the <a href="https://environment.fiu.edu/" target="_blank">Institute of Environment</a>, and a collaborative team in Perú have successfully identified the never-before-documented frog species in the Peruvian highlands and named it <em>Phrynopus remotum.</em></p>
<p>"You can't do anything for a species if you don't know it exists," Catenazzi said. "As scientists, describing and naming a species is the first step in helping to save it."</p><p>Germán Chávez and Luis Alberto García Ayachi were conducting field work when they came across some of the frogs. At first glance, they didn't necessarily stand out. The frogs look much like other frogs that live at high elevations where temperatures and oxygen levels are lower.</p><p>Because of a phenomenon called convergent evolution, different species will adapt in similar ways to a particular environment. Frogs that live at lower elevations — where there are trees — have disks on their fingers and toes to help them climb and move around. At higher elevations frogs don't usually have those disks. They don't have slim bodies. They don't have eyes that are as big. Living in mosses or under stones, they don't need those particular genetic adaptations.</p>
<p>Every frog living under those stones, though, is <em>not</em> the same.</p><p>Catenazzi knows this better than most. Throughout his career, he's spent time in museums studying the world's frogs and in the field searching for places where a deadly fungal disease has not yet hit amphibian populations. Including this latest find, he's helped discover and name 33 new species.</p><p>In the lab, Catenazzi extracted and sequenced the DNA of the frog in question and confirmed it was, in fact, a completely unique and new species. He then constructed an evolutionary tree. Like a family tree that traces different relatives — grandparents, aunts, uncles, cousins — the tree Catenazzi created looked at relatedness that spans hundreds of thousands to millions of years. It shows how closely the newly named species is related to other species in the same genus, <em>Phrynopus.</em></p>
<p><em>Phrynopus remotum</em> refers to the remote place the frogs are found, which can only be reached after days of traveling over roads, on horseback, along hiking trails and up the steep slopes of the mountain side.</p><p>As Catenazzi points out, though, just because this place is remote today doesn't mean it will always remain that way. The highlands and nearby areas are threatened by the rapid expansion of human activities. Even hiding under a stone won't save the little frog if a road is built or the land is used for agriculture.</p><p>But, now that scientists know these frogs exist, conservation can begin. </p><p>"With the knowledge of this species, we can convince people of the value of this area. We can say 'Here is a species and it's found nowhere else on earth,'" Catenazzi said. "That can convince people that this specific area has value and should be protected so this frog can persist."</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://news.fiu.edu/2020/whats-under-that-stone-oh,-just-a-never-before-seen-species-of-frog" target="_blank">Florida International University</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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Left: Lemurs in Madagascar on March 30, 2017. Mathias Appel / Flickr. Right: A North Atlantic right whale mother and calf. National Marine Fisheries Service
A new analysis by scientists at the Swiss-based International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) found that lemurs and the North Atlantic right whale are on the brink of extinction.
<p>For lemurs, the analysis found that almost one-third of the species in Madagascar are critically <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/endangered-species" target="_self">endangered</a> while 98 percent are threatened or worse, according to the IUCN's updated Red List of Threatened Species. The demise of lemurs is largely attributed to <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/deforestation" target="_self">deforestation</a> and hunting on the giant island off eastern Africa, conservationists said Thursday, as the <a href="https://apnews.com/82146ce2b2b9b98bb21b110eb14a797b#:~:text=GENEVA%20(AP)%20%E2%80%94%20Nearly%20all,eastern%20Africa%2C%20conservationists%20said%20Thursday." target="_blank">AP</a> reported.</p><p>To put that in numbers, instead of percentages, 33 lemur species are critically endangered, with 103 of the 107 surviving species threatened with extinction, according to the IUCN. The updated list now has 13 species pushed into the critically endangered category due to human activity.</p>
<p>The IUCN also says there were fewer than 250 mature North Atlantic right <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/whales" target="_self">whales</a> believed to be alive in 2018, marking a 15-percent drop since 2011. That number includes about only 100 breeding females.</p><p>"At the heart of this crisis is a dire need for alternative, sustainable livelihoods to replace the current reliance on deforestation and unsustainable use of wildlife," Grethel Aguilar, IUCN's acting director general, said in a statement, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/07/09/north-atlantic-right-whale-is-face-an-extinction-crisis-report-says/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported. "These findings really bring home the urgent need for an ambitious post-2020 biodiversity framework that drives effective conservation action."</p>
<p>At the end of June, one dead whale was spotted off the coast of New Jersey. That six-month-old calf had been struck several times on the head, suggesting one or possibly two vessel collisions, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/climate/trump-north-atlantic-right-whale.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>. Increasingly, collisions with ships, entanglements in fishing nets, and underwater noise pollution are killing the animals, which rely on echolocation for basic activities such as feeding, communicating and finding mates, as <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2020/07/09/north-atlantic-right-whale-is-face-an-extinction-crisis-report-says/" target="_blank">The Washington Post</a> reported.</p><p>The North Atlantic right whale also faces an increased threat from the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/climate-crisis" target="_self">climate crisis</a>. The IUCN says that warming ocean temperatures have likely pushed the species' main prey species further north during summer, into the Gulf of St. Lawrence, where the whales are more exposed to accidental encounters with ships and also at high risk of entanglement in crab-pot ropes.</p><p>The whale's preferred home, in the Gulf of Maine's deep waters, has warmed nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit since 2004, faster than 99 percent of the world's oceans for much of this century, according to <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/climate/trump-north-atlantic-right-whale.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p><p>The prospects are bleak for the North Atlantic right whale now that President <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/trump-watch/">Trump</a> lifted restrictions on commercial fishing in a key area of the whale's habitat.</p>
<p>"Unless we act decisively to turn the tide, the next time the right whale's Red List status changes it will be to 'extinct,'" Jane Davenport, a senior attorney for Defenders of Wildlife, said in a statement, as The Washington Post reported.</p><p>The deaths of 30 Atlantic right whales were confirmed as human-caused between 2012 and 2016, according to the IUCN report, and all but four were caused by entanglement in fishing gear.</p><p>Peter Corkeron, a senior scientist at the New England Aquarium, has chronicled the gruesome deaths of right whales as the director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's research program for large whales for the last decade. He told the New York Times he feared the listing would have little impact.</p><p>"A lot of the dynamic was bad anyway, and under Trump it just got worse," Corkeron said. "People are terrified to do anything about right whales at the moment."</p>
<p>The update to the "Red List of Threatened Species" shows that 32,441 species are threatened out of a total of 120,372 on the list.</p><p>"We have to take bold and rapid action to reduce the huge damage we're doing to the planet if we're going to save whales, frogs, lemurs and ultimately ourselves," said Tierra Curry, a senior scientist at the Center for Biological Diversity, as The Washington Post reported. "We really can do all of these things, but we need world leaders to stand up and do them."</p>
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Nobody knows exactly how much vitamin D a person actually needs. However, vitamin D is becoming increasingly popular. Colin Dunn / Flickr / CC by 2.0
By Julia Vergin
It is undisputed that vitamin D plays a role everywhere in the body and performs important functions. A severe vitamin D deficiency, which can occur at a level of 12 nanograms per milliliter of blood or less, leads to severe and painful bone deformations known as rickets in infants and young children and osteomalacia in adults. Unfortunately, this is where the scientific consensus ends.
Where Does the Deficiency Begin?
<p>Nobody knows exactly how much vitamin D a person actually needs. The question of when a deficiency starts is correspondingly controversial. However, vitamin D is becoming increasingly popular.Not only is the pseudo-scientific literature on the "sun vitamin" experiencing an upswing, but the number of published studies has also increased enormously in recent years. For example, in 2019 <a href="https://academic.oup.com/edrv/article/40/4/1109/5126915" target="_blank">a study found that</a> Vitamin D is responsible for keeping the skeleton functional and is associated with cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes and various types of cancer. <br></p>An All-Rounder
<p>Vitamin D levels in the body rise and fall according to sun exposure. If sufficient UV rays reach the skin, the body is able to produce the vitamin itself. However, the human body only derives an estimated 10 to 20 percent of its daily requirement from food.</p><p>The vitamin D that we synthesize from sunlight or food is not biologically active at first. Before the kidneys can produce the biologically active form of the vitamin, known as calcitriol, and release it into the blood, some metabolic processes must take place beforehand.</p><p>In addition, many organs have receptors to which the precursor of calcitriol binds. Further, this substance is also present in blood.</p><p>From this precursor, the organs then produce calcitriol themselves, which the body then uses for countless other processes in the body. This form of vitamin D thus regulates insulin secretion, inhibits tumor growth, and promotes the formation of red blood cells as well as the survival and activity of macrophages, which are important for the <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/5/7/2502/htm" target="_blank">immune system.</a></p>Low Vitamin D, Severe COVID-19 Disease?
<p>A research study carried out <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352364620300067?via%3Dihub" target="_blank">at the University of Hohenheim</a> has now established a link between vitamin D deficiency, certain previous diseases, and severe cases of COVID-19.</p><p>According to the study, "there is a lot of evidence that several non-communicable diseases (high blood pressure, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, metabolic syndrome) are associated with low vitamin D plasma levels. These comorbidities, together with the often accompanying vitamin D deficiency, increase the risk of severe COVID-19 events."</p><p>"This statement is completely correct," said Martin Fassnacht, head of endocrinology at the University Hospital of Würzburg. However, he qualifies that it is a pure association, "i.e. a mere observation that these events occur together.</p><p>Dr. Fassnacht is very critical of the hype surrounding vitamin D, but not because he denies the vitamin serves important functions. However, studies on humans have not been able to show that vitamin D has the healing powers many often propagate.</p><p>Fassnacht says, "If you take a closer look, the hopes that the administration of vitamin D has a healing effect have not been confirmed so far."</p>Association Versus Intervention Studies
<p>Many studies on the vitamin are association or observational studies. "By definition, these studies cannot prove the causal relationship, but only point to mere correlations," said Fassnacht. The physician tries to illustrate this with an example:</p><p>"Imagine two groups of 80-year-olds. One group is spry, active and does sports. If you compare them with another group living in nursing homes, the difference in vitamin D levels will be dramatic. Life expectancy would also be extremely different."</p><p>But to try to explain the difference in fitness by vitamin D status alone is far too simplistic. "Vitamin D levels are a good measure of how sick someone is. But not more," says Fassnacht. </p><p>According to Fassnacht, none of the intervention studies carried out to date -- that specifically examined the effect of vitamin D on various diseases -- has been able to confirm the previous association and laboratory studies or the presumed positive effect of vitamin D.</p>Further Research Is Needed
<p>"If a coronavirus infection is suspected, it is therefore absolutely necessary to check the vitamin D status and quickly correct any possible deficit," said the recommendation of the paper published by the University of Hohenheim.</p><p>"Studies are underway to see whether vitamin D helps in COVID-19 infection, but I personally do not believe that this is really the case," says endocrinologist Fassnacht. Nevertheless, he says it is of course useful to carry out these studies.<br></p><p>"I don't want to rule out that there are actually subgroups of people who benefit from an additional vitamin D dose," he says. After all, this has been proven to be the case with a severe deficit.</p><p>In view of the study situation, Fassnacht does not think much of preventive, nationwide vitamin D substitutes. "My belief that the vitamin helps somewhere is very low. But, of course, I can be wrong."</p>From Your Site Articles
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Data from a scientist measuring macroalgal communities in rocky shores in the Argentinean Patagonia would be added to the new system. Patricia Miloslavich / University of Delaware
Ocean scientists have been busy creating a global network to understand and measure changes in ocean life. The system will aggregate data from the oceans, climate and human activity to better inform sustainable marine management practices.
EcoWatch sat down with some of the scientists spearheading the collaboration to learn more.
<p>"There is the <a href="https://www.goosocean.org/" target="_blank">Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)</a> and the <a href="https://marinebon.org/" target="_blank">Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON)</a>. We're trying to put them together," explained Frank Muller-Karger, a professor at the University of South Florida studying phytoplankton, a member of the Biology & Ecosystems Panel (BioEco Panel) of GOOS and a co-founder of MBON.</p><p>GOOS recommends what kinds of essential measurements should be collected to address particular problems. Over the last few decades, physical variables (salinity, temperature, oxygen, etc.) have helped improved weather forecasts and understanding of how the ocean redistributes heat around the world, Muller-Karger said.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzQ0NzgxOS9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0ODE2OTE0MX0.FEfKKy8pBNvRAcmFZxjv5NOR091Ic42VVpZLcCvQCCA/img.jpg?width=980" id="dc9f8" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="cc9679b2e14d4d050938af7041bed306" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
Climate models are predicting faster warming of the North Atlantic Ocean, which will shift the Gulf Stream. NASA
<p>MBON has established biodiversity variables (genetics, number of species at a certain depth, ecosystem structure, etc.) to understand the structures of life in the oceans, explained Patricia Miloslavich, executive director of the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research at the University of Delaware and member of both the BioEco Panel and MBON.</p><p>Now, scientists are trying to bridge the gap between the two observing networks by creating one "language" both systems can speak and in which all data can be collected and shared. A major goal is to be more efficient and effective in solving issues that affect people around the world by leveraging the oceans' resources sustainably. The effort will be a key contribution to the <a href="https://www.oceandecade.org/" target="_blank">United Nations Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development</a> (2021 - 2030), an international effort under which top researchers have been collaborating to reverse ocean decline.</p><p>"Data have to be formatted and have to carry a measure of precision if you want any hope to understand how the world is changing," Muller-Karger said. "It's so difficult to make measurements in the sea, that if we don't follow standards, we end up with things we cannot compare. It complicates things even further."</p>
<p>Woody Turner, who works with NASA and remotely sensed data that will be incorporated into the new system, said the entire endeavor is about "coordination at a global scale to get a global view of the planet." He noted that people have been looking at phenomena in the ocean for centuries and that the hard part has always been stitching these diverse observations together.</p><p>"That's why the U.N. Decade is such a big deal. It's an effort to bring together natural and social scientists from around the world to deliberately tie things together and create a standardized global observation system for it all," he said.</p>
<p>The system will also link into a similar global climate observation system that has been in place for over 40 years, as well as account for human intervention. In this way, scientists hope to more fully understand how the two biggest stressors on the oceans — climate change and human activity — affect <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/biodiversity">biodiversity</a> and abundance of life in the oceans, Miloslavich said.</p><p>"This can be used by policymakers to better manage how we use the oceans," she added.</p><p>For example, through the system, scientists could explain the fact that the oceans off the northeast U.S. are warming and document the how and why of a northward-migration of lobsters to forecast whether specific action may <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/lobsters-climate-change-2639919647.html?rebelltitem=1#rebelltitem1" target="_self">prevent the impending collapse of current fisheries</a> and the resultant shift towards new species in the ecosystem.</p>
<p>Traditional climate data would show the effect of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, the GOOS might measure higher water temperatures, and the MBON might separately register the disappearing lobster populations, but the new system would hopefully be able to connect it all. Fisheries managers could then anticipate shortening or shifting a catch season accordingly, making the fishery more effective and profitable.</p><p>"We really need to be measuring life and the diversity of life, because that's ultimately what we depend on," Muller-Karger said. "We don't eat bulk carbon; we eat fish and potatoes."</p><p>Fundamentally, the scientists are trying to create a way to link physical and chemical measurements to the changes in biodiversity and life in the oceans.</p><p>"We need to be able to harness all that information so we can profit more from the info we're collecting," said Nic Bax, co-chair of the BioEco Panel. "That multi-disciplinarity is really needed now."</p>
<p>Critically, the new integrated observing system also shows how human actions can increase biodiversity in a particular region, so that abundance and productivity can be used to improve human life in various ways, Bax explained.</p><p>For example, Turner and Maury Estes apply space-based satellite imagery of the Earth with sea-based measurements to improve aquaculture practices in Palau. This combats overfishing while sustaining the health of the people and the economy of the island nation. They are also applying such technologies to <a href="https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/story/mangrove-conservation-more-valuable-ever-thanks-carbon-trading" target="_blank">mangrove conservation</a> and restoration efforts in Kenya, where carbon credits are purchased to maintain mangroves as essential fish spawning grounds, increasing biological resilience while reducing human poverty.</p><p>"As we understand more, how we talk about sustainably developing the environment won't be just about how to not lose diversity, but about how to bring it back," Bax said. "A lot of things just require someone to invest in them, and financial markets need to be informed about what's going on in the larger system. This is a way to generate profit while improving the lives of people."</p><p>Turner added, "It's not only about saving life on the planet, it's about saving ourselves. It's a global problem, so we have to address it top-down, globally."</p>
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Authors of a new study warned Thursday that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is nearing a level not seen in 15 million years. Dawn Ellner / Flickr / CC by 2.0
By Jessica Corbett
As a United Nations agency released new climate projections showing that the world is on track in the next five years to hit or surpass a key limit of the Paris agreement, authors of a new study warned Thursday that increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is nearing a level not seen in 15 million years.
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<p>For the study, <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-67154-8" target="_blank">published</a> in the journal<em> Scientific Reports</em>, researchers at the University of Southampton in the United Kingdom examined CO2 levels during the Late Pliocene about three million years ago "to search for modern and near future-like climate states," co-author Thomas Chalk <a href="https://twitter.com/ChalkyOceans/status/1281182408554020864" target="_blank">explained</a> in a series of tweets.</p><p>"A striking result we've found is that the warmest part of the Pliocene had between 380 and 420 parts per million CO2 in the atmosphere," Chalk <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/09/co2-in-earths-atmosphere-nearing-levels-of-15m-years-ago" target="_blank">told</a> the <em>Guardian</em>. "This is similar to today's value of around 415 parts per million, showing that we are already at levels that in the past were associated with temperature and sea-level significantly higher than today."</p><p>When CO2 levels peaked during the Pliocene, temperatures were 3ºC to 4ºC hotter and seas were 65 feet higher, the newspaper reported. Chalk said that "currently, our CO2 levels are rising at about 2.5 ppm per year, meaning that by 2025 we will have exceeded anything seen in the last 3.3 million years."</p><p>"We are burning through the Pliocene and heading towards a Miocene-like future," warned co-author Gavin Foster, referencing a period from about 23 to 5.3 million years ago. It was during the Miocene, around 15 million years ago, when "our ancestors are thought to have diverged from orangutans and become recognizably hominoid," the <em>Guardian</em> noted.</p>
<div id="1a097" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3be1f37aee62477983e577219c84d7a9"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1281182404116385792" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">https://t.co/3sNdmN8mCz New study covered by @guardiannews, we look at CO2 levels in the Late Pliocene (~3 million… https://t.co/xRhhLcpdJ5</div> — Tom Chalk (@Tom Chalk)<a href="https://twitter.com/ChalkyOceans/statuses/1281182404116385792">1594292663.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Reporting on the study elicited concern and calls for action from environmentalists and advocacy groups.</p><p>"Every kilo of CO2 we emit is one we have to sequester later, provided the food doesn't run out first," <a href="https://twitter.com/xrfinland/status/1281177680948473857" target="_blank">tweeted</a> Extinction Rebellion Finland, urging the international community to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ActNow" target="_blank">#ActNow</a>.</p><p>Nathaniel Stinnett, executive director of the U.S.-based Environmental Voter Project, also <a href="https://twitter.com/NCStinn/status/1281186259998777351" target="_blank">responded</a> to the report on Twitter, saying, "Big Oil and Gas are killing us."</p><p>A new report released Thursday by the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) about global temperatures likely coming in the next five years provoked similar alarm and demands.</p>
<p>"It's still not too late to avoid the worst effects of the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ClimateEmergency?src=hashtag_click" target="_blank">#ClimateEmergency</a>. But governments need to act NOW," <a href="https://twitter.com/Greenpeace/status/1281166638897860608" target="_blank">declared</a> Greenpeace, pushing for a <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GreenRecovery" target="_blank">#GreenRecovery</a> from the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p>The WMO report projects that the annual global temperature is likely to be at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial levels in each of the next five years. Although it is "extremely unlikely" the average temperature for 2020–2024 will be 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, WMO warned certain periods could hit that temperature.</p><p>Specifically, there is about a 70% chance that one or more months during those five years will be at least 1.5°C hotter than pre-industrial levels and about a 20% chance that one of the next five years will be at least that warm, according to WMO's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, led by the United Kingdom's Met Office.</p>
<div id="23d44" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a800573625ce69a53bedfe537b572116"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1281123005695959040" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Annual mean global temperature likely to be at least 1° C above pre-industrial levels in each of coming 5 years (20… https://t.co/WOBeEOhbCe</div> — World Meteorological Organization (@World Meteorological Organization)<a href="https://twitter.com/WMO/statuses/1281123005695959040">1594278501.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>In a statement Thursday, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas also <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/new-climate-predictions-assess-global-temperatures-coming-five-years" target="_blank">pointed</a> to the coronavirus pandemic—which prompted global lockdowns that briefly <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/05/20/after-coronavirus-triggers-17-emissions-drop-experts-say-only-fundamental-structural" target="_blank">caused</a> planet-heating emissions to drop—as an opportunity to pursue bold recovery plans that incorporate policies that combat the climate crisis, such as rapidly transitioning to renewable energy worldwide.</p><p>"WMO has repeatedly stressed that the industrial and economic slowdown from Covid-19 is not a substitute for sustained and coordinated climate action," Taalas said. "Due to the very long lifetime of CO2 in the atmosphere, the impact of the drop in emissions this year is not expected to lead to a reduction of CO2 atmospheric concentrations which are driving global temperature increases."</p><p>"Whilst Covid-19 has caused a severe international health and economic crisis, failure to tackle climate change may threaten human well-being, ecosystems, and economies for centuries," he continued. "Governments should use the opportunity to embrace climate action as part of recovery program and ensure that we grow back better."</p><p>Taalas added that "this study shows—with a high level of scientific skill—the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris agreement on climate change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C."</p><p>While some scientists and activists have criticized the 2015 Paris climate agreement as not ambitious enough, it is backed by nearly all nations on Earth. U.S. President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/04/delivering-catastrophic-message-moment-great-urgency-trump-formally-begins-ditching" target="_blank">began</a> the one-year withdrawal process in November 2019 but former Vice President Joe Biden, the presumed Democratic presidential nominee, has vowed to rejoin the accord if he wins this year's election.</p>
<p class=""><em>Reposted with permission from <a href="https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/07/09/humanity-track-soon-hit-15oc-paris-accord-limit-atmospheric-co2-nears-level-not-seen" target="_blank">Common Dreams</a>.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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