1 in 4 Properties in England at Risk of Flooding by 2050: Report

Under the most recent climate projections, 6.3 million properties in England are located in areas that are at risk of flooding, the new National Assessment of Flood Risk (NaFRA) has found.

Properties at risk of flooding from rivers, sea or surface waters could increase to eight million — one in four properties — by 2050.

“We have spent the last few years transforming our understanding of flood and coastal erosion risk in England, drawing on the best available data from the Environment Agency and local authorities, as well as improved modelling and technological advances,” said Julie Foley, flood risk strategy director at the Environment Agency, in a press release from the agency. “Providing the nation with the best available information on flood and coastal erosion risk is vital to ensuring that policy makers, practitioners and communities are ready to adapt to flooding and coastal change.”

Alongside the flood risk report, the Environment Agency published a new National Coastal Erosion Risk Map (NCERM), the first update since 2017.

The combination provides a current national picture of England’s prevailing and future risk of coastal erosion using evidence from the National Network of Regional Coastal Monitoring Programmes.

“These updated assessments provide a clearer understanding of flood risk around the country and the data will be used by the government, Environment Agency and local communities to plan for and improve flood resilience in areas at risk,” the Environment Agency said.

Roughly 4.6 million of the at-risk properties are in areas susceptible to flooding from surface water. These areas are inundated with so much rainwater that it overwhelms drainage systems, causing surface water runoff, or flash flooding.

That number reflects a 43 percent increase from the previous assessment. The changes are almost completely due to improvements to data, modeling and technology use.

Approximately 2.4 million properties in the country are located in areas with flood risk from rivers as well as the sea. The total number of at-risk properties has not increased, but there has been an 88 percent jump in properties at the highest risk level — those that are in areas with a more than one in 30 likelihood of flooding during any given year.

Meanwhile, the government has slashed flood protection plans by 40 percent recently, with 25 percent of major projects having been dropped, reported The Guardian.

“The risk from floods and coastal erosion is growing, yet the government’s plan for dealing with increasingly extreme weather is completely inadequate. Labour agrees that the previous government’s policies ‘have left Britain badly exposed.’ Now it needs to fix this by strengthening the national adaptation programme, in consultation with the communities most impacted by the climate crisis,” said Alison Dilworth, a campaigner with Friends of the Earth, as The Guardian reported.

The updated report reveals how the risk of coastal erosion has been changing across England’s shorelines. Up to the year 2055, 3,500 properties are projected to be in places at risk of coastal erosion. This number is expected to increase to roughly 10,100 properties by 2050.

“More detailed flood and coastal risk information, which takes climate change into account, is essential for local authorities to be able to plan effectively, to protect their local communities and to start to build resilient infrastructure for the future,” said Hannah Bartram, chief executive officer of the Association of Directors for Environment Planning and Transport, in the press release.

To assist communities and decision-makers with understanding how the new information could help them, in early 2025 detailed local maps will be made available and the updated data from NaFRA and NCERM will be published.

The Environment Agency’s digital services will also be updated early next year, including “Check the long term flood risk for an area in England.”

The agency will also update its Flood Map for Planning in the spring. This map is used by developers and planners to find data to assist them with flood risk for a planning application.

“We welcome the collaborative effort the Environment Agency has taken to working with coastal authorities and coastal partners around the country to develop the new National Coastal Erosion Risk Map. It uses 10 years of evidence on coastal processes from the National Network of Regional Coastal Monitoring Programmes,” said Stewart Rowe, Coastal Group Network chair, in the press release. “The updated coastal erosion risk information will be critical to the implementation of the Shoreline Management Plans that set out our long-term approach to managing flood and coastal erosion risk around the coast.”