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Accepting the conclusions of the latest energy outlook, released last week by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) means also accepting certain climate catastrophe.
As we have noted before, the EIA has made a routine out of releasing unrealistic, distorted and dangerous outlooks on the future of global energy demand. These projections should come with a warning label.
Assuming this scenario will become reality also means accepting the consequences: total failure to stop dangerous climate change. It's important to read the fine print.
The EIA's reference case suggests that fossil fuels will still account for 77 percent of energy use in 2040 alongside rising energy demand. Climate science however, shows that global greenhouse gas emissions must be cut in half well before 2040 in order to have a good chance of avoiding the worst expected climate impacts (and eventually cut to zero mid-century). You can't accept one without the other.
No one can credibly claim to predict the future. However, energy modelers can test specific assumptions to gain insight into what's possible. So what assumptions were used to create the EIA's latest base-case scenario? Here's a sample:
- Current laws and regulations, including those related to climate change, will not change from today beyond 2040.
- Contrary to clear trends already underway, electric vehicles fail to meaningfully replace internal combustion engines (only 3 percent of global transportation projected to be electrically powered by 2040).
- In spite of low and rapidly falling costs, renewable energy fails to meaningfully displace coal and natural gas-fired electricity.
What is the intended value of creating energy outlooks using dangerous assumptions like these? It's no wonder that the EIA reached this absurd conclusion:
'Through 2040, the IEO2017 projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources, except for coal demand, which is projected to remain essentially flat.'
It can be useful of course to contrast existing policy with the future we are trying to achieve to reveal the size of the gap, but that doesn't seem to be the EIA's goal here. If it was, such a comparison would feature prominently. Instead, the EIA appears to cherry-pick assumptions that would protect the fossil fuel industry from difficult questions about its viability in a low-carbon world, while failing to include a scenario which considers what reaching climate success would look like.
Of course, the EIA isn't alone in creating questionable energy outlooks seemingly designed to protect the fossil fuel industry from the difficult realities of the required energy transition. The world's largest oil companies have long been putting out self-serving outlooks to distort our view of the future to their interest. Even the highly influential International Energy Agency has repeatedly failed to put a model that centers climate safety at the heart of its World Energy Outlook.
It's no secret that our perception of the future shapes our decision-making today. The fossil fuel industry needs investors and government to believe it will continue to grow. Flawed energy scenarios make that fiction possible. This works for the fossil fuel companies, but what about the rest of us?
For anyone who actually want to use energy forecasts as a tool to inform sound decision-making, for directing investment wisely, and for meeting the obvious goal of achieving climate safety—we need outlooks with credible assumptions. It's a shame we can't trust the EIA to provide them.
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An illustration depicts the extinct woolly rhino. Heinrich Harder / Wikimedia Commons
The last Ice Age eliminated some giant mammals, like the woolly rhino. Conventional thinking initially attributed their extinction to hunting. While overhunting may have contributed, a new study pinpointed a different reason for the woolly rhinos' extinction: climate change.
The last of the woolly rhinos went extinct in Siberia nearly 14,000 years ago, just when the Earth's climate began changing from its frozen conditions to something warmer, wetter and less favorable to the large land mammal. DNA tests conducted by scientists on 14 well-preserved rhinos point to rapid warming as the culprit, CNN reported.
"Humans are well known to alter their environment and so the assumption is that if it was a large animal it would have been useful to people as food and that must have caused its demise," says Edana Lord, a graduate student at the Center for Paleogenetics in Stockholm, Sweden, and co-first author of the paper, Smithsonian Magazine reported. "But our findings highlight the role of rapid climate change in the woolly rhino's extinction."
The study, published in Current Biology, notes that the rhino population stayed fairly consistent for tens of thousands of years until 18,500 years ago. That means that people and rhinos lived together in Northern Siberia for roughly 13,000 years before rhinos went extinct, Science News reported.
The findings are an ominous harbinger for large species during the current climate crisis. As EcoWatch reported, nearly 1,000 species are expected to go extinct within the next 100 years due to their inability to adapt to a rapidly changing climate. Tigers, eagles and rhinos are especially vulnerable.
The difference between now and the phenomenon 14,000 years ago is that human activity is directly responsible for the current climate crisis.
To figure out the cause of the woolly rhinos' extinction, scientists examined DNA from different rhinos across Siberia. The tissue, bone and hair samples allowed them to deduce the population size and diversity for tens of thousands of years prior to extinction, CNN reported.
Researchers spent years exploring the Siberian permafrost to find enough samples. Then they had to look for pristine genetic material, Smithsonian Magazine reported.
It turns out the wooly rhinos actually thrived as they lived alongside humans.
"It was initially thought that humans appeared in northeastern Siberia fourteen or fifteen thousand years ago, around when the woolly rhinoceros went extinct. But recently, there have been several discoveries of much older human occupation sites, the most famous of which is around thirty thousand years old," senior author Love Dalén, a professor of evolutionary genetics at the Center for Paleogenetics, said in a press release.
"This paper shows that woolly rhino coexisted with people for millennia without any significant impact on their population," Grant Zazula, a paleontologist for Canada's Yukon territory and Simon Fraser University who was not involved in the research, told Smithsonian Magazine. "Then all of a sudden the climate changed and they went extinct."
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A large patch of leaked oil and the vessel MV Wakashio near Blue Bay Marine Park off the coast of southeast Mauritius on Aug. 6, 2020. AFP via Getty Images
The environmental disaster that Mauritius is facing is starting to appear as its pristine waters turn black, its fish wash up dead, and its sea birds are unable to take flight, as they are limp under the weight of the fuel covering them. For all the damage to the centuries-old coral that surrounds the tiny island nation in the Indian Ocean, scientists are realizing that the damage could have been much worse and there are broad lessons for the shipping industry, according to Al Jazeera.
<p>As <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/oil-spill-disaster-mauritius-2646957267.html" target="_self">EcoWatch</a> reported earlier this week, a French ship was working with Mauritian authorities and a team from Japan to remove the remaining fuel in the ship's tanks before it broke in two and spilled thousands of tons of fuel into the water. Fortunately, that operation was successful and all but a minimal amount of fuel has been removed from the sinking ship, according to the <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-53750151" target="_blank">BBC</a>. That means a spill that's more than twice as damaging has been avoided. Furthermore, nobody died in the accident. The worst has been avoided as Mauritius waits for the ship to break in two.</p>
<p>Al Jazeera noted that the ship also had no cargo so it was not a fully loaded tanker, which would have caused much more damage. This accident has spilled the equivalent of about 7,000 barrels of oil, a tiny fraction of the nearly 3.2 million barrels spilled by the Deepwater Horizon accident.</p><p>While that is a spot of good news, the environmental impact of what has been spilled is just coming into focus. The waters of Blue Bay Marine Park, a habitat for rare <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/marine-life">marine life</a> and a wetlands designated as a site of international importance by an international convention on wetlands, have been devastated, according to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mauritius-environment/massive-poisonous-shock-scientists-fear-lasting-impact-from-mauritius-oil-spill-idUSKCN2592Z6" target="_blank">Reuters</a>.</p><p>"This oil spill occurred in one of, if not the most, sensitive areas in Mauritius," oceanographer and environmental engineer Vassen Kauppaymuthoo told Reuters by telephone from the island, where he was surveying the disaster. "We are talking of decades to recover from this damage, and some of it may never recover."</p>
<p>The Ursa Space Systems tweeted satellite imagery from a Finnish satellite that showed the extent of the oil slick earlier this week. "Our team estimates the size of the slick is nearly 10x larger than on Aug 6," the tweet reads.</p>
<div id="65aac" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3dd7ff1eb0d98450b7551743230e7b74"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293587048344047621" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Ursa's analysis using @iceyefi imagery reveals a rapid expansion of the oil slick leaking from bulk carrier MV Waka… https://t.co/oyEFWaPku6</div> — Ursa Space Systems (@Ursa Space Systems)<a href="https://twitter.com/UrsaSpace/statuses/1293587048344047621">1597250160.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>"Thousands of species around the pristine lagoons are at risk of drowning in a sea of pollution, with dire consequences for Mauritius's economy, food security and health," said Happy Khambule, Greenpeace Africa's senior climate and energy campaign manager, as Al Jazeera reported.</p><p>Additionally, there are reports of people breathing oil vapor, according to the BBC.</p>
<p>Reuters noted that the area around Mauritius will feel a slow, insidious impact, as the corals and fish become the first to die off. That means the remaining corals will be increasingly vulnerable to marine heat waves, which are becoming more frequent and more extreme as the climate crisis unfolds.</p><p>"If things continue to go the way they are the future prospects for <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coral-reefs">coral reefs</a> look very, very bleak indeed," said Alex Rogers, a visiting professor at Oxford University, to Reuters. Blue Bay Marine Park is home to 38 unique species of coral.</p><p>The oil will also seep into the sediment around the roots of mangrove trees and could choke out mollusks, crabs and fish eggs, said Callum Roberts, a professor of marine conservation at the University of Exeter in Britain, who spoke to Reuters.</p><p>"It's very hard to remove once it's sunk into the sediment," Roberts said. "Trees can become sick and die."</p><p>Additionally, the sea grasses around the island will be at risk and the fate of the critically <a href="http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/endangered-species">endangered</a> Pink Pigeon is in jeopardy. The sea grasses play a vital role in protecting the coastline from waves, according to Reuters.</p>
<p>This spill is also a warning shot for the increasingly treacherous waters around the Arctic, which is seeing an increase in ice melt. That means the waters are becoming more navigable, but sea ice that has broken off from ice shelves threaten the increased tanker traffic, according to the Clean Arctic Alliance (CAA), as Al Jazeera reported.</p><p>"The spill in Mauritius demonstrates the limitations of response operations to cope with heavy fuel oil spills even in relatively favorable conditions," said Dave Walsh of the CAA to Al Jazeera.</p><p>"It underlines the need for the shipping industry to move away from powering vessels with fuels which pollute the air when they are burned and the ocean when there is an accident."</p><p>Ships carrying heavy fuel are already banned from Antarctica's waters, but no ban exists in the Arctic.</p><p>"What has happened in Mauritius is not an isolated incident, but part of a pattern of unacceptable behavior by an industry that routinely puts commercial considerations ahead of safety and the environment," said Walsh to Al Jazeera. "Put simply, the shipping industry must find a way towards an exit from the age of dirty fossil fuel-powered shipping."</p>
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A quality engineer examines new solar panels in a factory. alvarez / Getty Images
Transitioning to renewable energy can help reduce global warming, and Jennie Stephens of Northeastern University says it can also drive social change.
For example, she says that locally owned businesses can lead the local clean energy economy and create new jobs in underserved communities.
"We really need to think about … connecting climate and energy with other issues that people wake up every day really worried about," she says, "whether it be jobs, housing, transportation, health and well-being."
To maximize that potential, she says the energy sector must have more women and people of color in positions of influence. Research shows that leadership in the solar industry, for example, is currently dominated by white men.
"I think that a more inclusive, diverse leadership is essential to be able to effectively make these connections," Stephens says. "Diversity is not just about who people are and their identity, but the ideas and the priorities and the approaches and the lens that they bring to the world."
So she says by elevating diverse voices, organizations can better connect the climate benefits of clean energy with social and economic transformation.
Reposted with permission from Yale Climate Connections.
The frozen meat section at a supermarket in Hong Kong, China, in February. Chukrut Budrul / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images
Imported frozen food in three Chinese cities has tested positive for the new coronavirus, but public health experts say you still shouldn't worry too much about catching the virus from food or packaging.
<p>In the last four days, the virus turned up on Brazilian chicken wings in Shenzhen, packaging for Ecuadorian shrimp in Wuhu and imported seafood packaging in Yantai, <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/coronavirus-found-frozen-food-packaging-chinese-cities-n1236574" target="_blank">NBC News reported</a>.</p><p>"All the citizens should be cautious in buying imported frozen meat products and aquatic products in recent days," the Shenzhen Municipal Health Commission said Thursday when it announced its findings about the chicken wings.</p>
<p>However, the commission traced and tested everyone who had come in contact with the chicken, and no one tested positively for COVID-19. And the World Health Organization (WHO) has advised people not to worry about catching the virus from their food.</p><p>"People should not fear food, or food packaging or processing or delivery of food," WHO head of emergencies programme Mike Ryan said in a briefing, as <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-idUSKCN2592D5" target="_blank">Reuters reported</a>. "There is no evidence that food or the food chain is participating in transmission of this virus. And people should feel comfortable and safe."</p><p>Yale disease ecologist Brandon Ogbunu agreed. He pointed out that the packaging tests only detect virus genetic material, or RNA.</p><p>"This is just detecting the signature that the virus has been there at some point," he told <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/13/health/coronavirus-frozen-food.html" target="_blank">The New York Times</a>.</p>
<p>To prove the virus on the packaging was still infectious, researchers would have to prove it could reproduce itself in a lab.</p><p>It is also unlikely the virus would survive the freezing and thawing process in tact.</p><p>"Yes, we should continue to wash our hands and be mindful of surfaces where a lot of individuals are,"Ogbunu said. "But it's close proximity to others that can really facilitate transmission."</p><p>This echoes the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines about the virus and food.</p><p>"Coronaviruses, like the one that causes COVID-19, are thought to spread mostly person-to-person through respiratory droplets when someone coughs, sneezes, or talks," the CDC <a href="https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/food-and-COVID-19.html" target="_blank">wrote July 25</a>. "It is possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object, including food or food packaging, that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes. However, this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."</p><p>Still, New Zealand is now investigating whether frozen food packages could be the cause of a new outbreak in the country that broke a more than 100 day streak of no new cases, <a href="https://www.newsweek.com/new-zealand-covid-outbreak-could-have-come-frozen-food-packaging-1525023" target="_blank">Newsweek reported</a>.</p>
<div id="59cb2" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9f354b20c92eca6efa3745f783d5dd37"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293940145905958915" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">China reported several cases of frozen food packaging contaminated with the novel coronavirus this week, while New… https://t.co/EaGmGjEpBW</div> — Reuters (@Reuters)<a href="https://twitter.com/Reuters/statuses/1293940145905958915">1597334345.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>One of the cases was connected to a worker who handled imports at a frozen food storage plant.</p><p>"We're not ruling anything out," Ashley Bloomfield, New Zealand's Director-General of Health, said during a press conference Wednesday. "We do know from studies overseas that actually, the virus can survive in some refrigerated environments for quite some time."</p>
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This image of the Santa Monica Mountains in California shows how a north-facing slope (left) can be covered in white-blooming hoaryleaf ceanothus (Ceanothus crassifolius), while the south-facing slope (right) is much less sparsely covered in a completely different plant. Noah Elhardt / Wikimedia Commons / CC by 2.5
If weather is your mood, climate is your personality. That's an analogy some scientists use to help explain the difference between two words people often get mixed up.
<p>In other words, weather exists in the short term. It's the state of the atmosphere in a specific area during a limited period (think minutes, hours, days or weeks). Climate, meanwhile, describes <em>long-term</em> average weather trends.</p><p>And if you're interested in the latter, you'd better know geography: Our global climate is made up of smaller <a href="https://scied.ucar.edu/shortcontent/climate" target="_blank">regional climates</a>. Break those down and you'll find local variations at just about every conceivable scale.</p><p>That brings us to microclimates, an amazing subject with broad applications for farming, conservation, wildlife management and <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/cities-withstand-global-warming.htm" target="_blank">city planning</a>.</p>
Size Matters
<p>Climates are a bit like woven tapestries. The big picture is important, no question. But so are all the seemingly minor details found inside the larger whole.</p><p><a href="https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/persons/tommaso-jucker" target="_blank">Tommaso Jucker</a> is an environmental scientist at the University of Bristol. In an email, Jucker says he'd define the term microclimate as "the suite of climatic conditions (temperature, rainfall, humidity, solar radiation) measured in localized areas, typically near the ground and at spatial scales that are directly relevant to ecological processes."</p><p>We'll talk about that last bit in a minute. But first, there's another criteria to discuss. According to some researchers, a microclimate — by definition — must differ from the larger area that surrounds it.</p><p><a href="https://www.cfc.umt.edu/research/paleoecologylab/publications/Davis_et_al_2019_Ecography.pdf" target="_blank">Forests</a> provide us with some great examples. "The climate near the ground in a tropical rainforest is dramatically different from the climate in the canopy 50 meters [164 feet] above," says University of Montana ecologist <a href="https://www.cfc.umt.edu/personnel/details.php?ID=1110" target="_blank">Solomon Dobrowski</a> in an email. "This vertical gradient among other factors allows for the staggering biodiversity we see in the tropics."</p><p>Likewise, scientists observed that a 2015 partial <a href="https://animals.howstuffworks.com/insects/bees-stopped-buzzing-during-2017-solar-eclipse.htm" target="_blank">solar eclipse</a> caused the air temperature of an Eastern European meadow to <a href="https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wea.2802" target="_blank">change more dramatically</a> than it did in a nearby forest. That's because trees provide not only shade, but their leaves also reflect solar radiation. At the same time, forests tend to reduce wind speeds.</p><p>All those factors add up. A 2019 review of 98 wooded places — spread out across five continents — found that forests are 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit (4 degrees Celsius) <a href="https://natureecoevocommunity.nature.com/posts/47363-forests-protect-animals-and-plants-against-warming" target="_blank">cooler on average</a> than the areas outside them.</p><p>Now if you hate the cold, don't worry; there's a cozy exception to the rule. According to that same study, forests are usually 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) warmer than the external environment during the wintertime. Pretty cool.</p>A Bug's Life
<p>When does a microclimate stop being, well, micro? In other words, is there a maximum size we should be aware of when discussing them?</p><p>Depends on who you ask. "In terms of horizontal scale, some have defined 'microclimate' as anything that is less than 100 meters [328 feet] in range," Jucker says. "I'm personally less prescriptive about this."</p><p>Instead, he says the "scale at which we want to measure [a particular] microclimate" ought to be "dictated" by the questions we're trying to answer.</p><p>"If I want to know how temperature affects the photosynthesis of a leaf, I should be measuring temperature at centimeter scale," Jucker explains. "If I want to know if and how temperature affects the habitat preference of a large, mobile mammal, it's probably more relevant to capture temperature variation across [tens to hundreds] of meters."</p><p>For instance, solitary plants have the power to generate itty-bitty microclimates. Just ask <a href="https://www.colorado.edu/geography/peter-blanken-0" target="_blank">Peter Blanken</a>, a geography professor at the University of Colorado, Boulder and the co-author of the 2016 book, "<a href="https://amzn.to/2XN6FT8" target="_blank">Microclimate and Local Climate</a>."</p><p>"A single stalk of corn can create its own microclimate through the shading and changes in soil properties in the immediate vicinity of the stalk," Blanken says via email. "For a field of corn, the microclimate created would be much larger, extending over the entire field," Blanken says via email.</p><p>Many organisms eke out a living in some of the dinkiest microclimates you can imagine.</p><p>Take <a href="https://animals.howstuffworks.com/insects/aphid-babies-born-pregnant.htm" target="_blank">aphids</a>, spider mites and leaf miner insects. All those critters are <a href="https://jeb.biologists.org/content/222/9/jeb192773" target="_blank">dwarfed by the plant leaves</a> they feed on. And every leaf comes with its own microclimate. Observations show that aphids seek out cooler leaves while those other invertebrates prefer warmed ones.</p><p>Because none of these animals can generate their own body heat, leaf microclimates have a critical effect on their well-being.</p>
<img lazy-loadable="true" src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMzU1NjU0OC9vcmlnaW4uanBnIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTY0MTU5OTQwMH0.SGmwg2ouzf81AX_WYyfXn3047hBA9cya1jquQESQbUE/img.jpg?width=980" id="ef484" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="d035a985cf7cf7eba49a6d229b977d7f" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
The urban heat island effect is a good example of how microclimates work. NOAA
Microclimates on a Grand Scale
<p>It's no secret that our planet is going through some rough times at the macro level. The global temperature is <a href="https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">climbing</a>; nine out of the <a href="https://www.noaa.gov/news/2019-was-2nd-hottest-year-on-record-for-earth-say-noaa-nasa" target="_blank">10 hottest years on record</a> have occurred since 2005. And by one recent estimate, roughly 1 million species around the world are <a href="https://ipbes.net/sites/default/files/2020-02/ipbes_global_assessment_report_summary_for_policymakers_en.pdf" target="_blank">facing extinction</a> due to human activities.</p><p>"One of the big questions that ecologists and environmental scientists are trying to answer right now is how will individual species and whole ecosystems respond to rapid climate change and habitat loss," says Jucker. "...To me, [microclimates are] a key component of this research — if we don't measure and understand climate at the appropriate scale, then predicting how things will change in the future becomes a lot harder."</p><p>Developers have long understood the impact small-scale climates have on our daily lives. <a href="https://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/green-science/urban-heat-island.htm#pt0" target="_blank">Urban heat islands</a> are cities that have higher temperatures than neighboring rural areas.</p><p>Plants release vapors that can moderate local climates. But in cities, natural greenery is often scarce. To make matters worse, plenty of our roads and buildings have a bad habit of absorbing or re-emitting heat from the sun. <a href="https://www.google.com/books/edition/Microclimate_and_Local_Climate/LHUZDAAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=urban%20heat%20island" target="_blank">Vehicle emissions</a> don't exactly help the situation.</p><p>Still, it's not like Boston or Beijing are thermal monoliths. Sometimes, the documented temperatures <a href="https://e360.yale.edu/features/can-we-turn-down-the-temperature-on-urban-heat-islands" target="_blank">within a single city</a> vary by 15 to 20 degrees Fahrenheit (8.3 to 11.1 degrees Celsius).</p><p>That's where metro parks and city trees come in. They have nice cooling effects on nearby neighborhoods. "Several cities around the world have developed programs to increase urban green spaces," says Blanken. "Tree planting programs and green roof programs, have been shown to lower surface temperatures, decrease air pollution and decrease surface water runoff (urban flash-flooding) in urban areas."</p>
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Flames from the Lake Fire burn on a hillside near a fire truck and other vehicles on Aug. 12, 2020 in Lake Hughes, California. Mario Tama / Getty Images
An "explosive" wildfire ignited in Los Angeles county Wednesday, growing to 10,000 acres in a little less than three hours.
<p>The so-called Lake Fire, which prompted evacuations and road closures, is remarkable for spreading so fast so early in the fire season without strong winds to drive it.</p><p>"It's pretty explosive fire behavior," Angeles National Forest Fire Chief Robert Garcia told <a href="https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/08/12/lake-hughes-fire-angeles-national-forest-lacofd/" target="_blank">CBS Los Angeles</a>. "It's typically what we see a little bit later in the season and often driven by wind. The fuel, moisture conditions and the fire at this particular location with the slope, it really created the recipe for rapid fire growth."</p>
<div id="ce282" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="a315d353ac8959f1b506f12e2da87657"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293722589903196160" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">|Update| The #LakeFire has grown to 10,000 acres and is 0% contained. https://t.co/gNuygunYX4</div> — Angeles_NF (@Angeles_NF)<a href="https://twitter.com/Angeles_NF/statuses/1293722589903196160">1597282476.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The fire ignited around 3:40 p.m. Wednesday and is still zero percent contained, according to the most recent information from the U.S. Forest Service's <a href="https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/6953/" target="_blank">InciWeb</a>. It is burning about 65 miles northeast of Los Angeles in the Angeles National Forest, between Lake Hughes and Lake Castaic, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/12/lake-fire-california-lake-hughes-angeles-national-forest/3362336001/?utm_source=feedblitz&utm_medium=FeedBlitzRss&utm_campaign=usatoday-newstopstories" target="_blank">USA TODAY reported</a>.</p><p>Evacuations were ordered for the entire Lake Hughes area Wednesday night. All told, residents of around 100 homes and buildings were told to flee.</p><p>Evacuees were directed to the Highland High School, but, because of the <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/coronavirus" target="_self">coronavirus</a> pandemic, will have to remain in their cars, CBS LA reported.</p>
<p>In addition to its early start and rapid spread, the fire is notable because it is burning vegetation that hasn't been set ablaze since 1968.</p><p>"Portions of the forest [haven't] had a significant amount of fire in a very long time, 1968, for a large portion of that area, it hasn't burned since then," Garcia told <a href="https://abc7.com/lake-hughes-fire-brush-angeles-national-forest/6367793/" target="_blank">ABC 7</a>.</p>
<div id="c113f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c9f4391470f188b6e2856b1fc401fcda"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293753451302674434" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">I have never seen anything like this. The #LakeFire is moving fast toward Lake Hughes. It created a fire tornado on… https://t.co/7DZeWe2rVS</div> — Veronica Miracle (@Veronica Miracle)<a href="https://twitter.com/ABC7Veronica/statuses/1293753451302674434">1597289834.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>There have been no reports of injuries and no official tally of structural damage, according to <a href="https://abc7.com/lake-hughes-fire-brush-angeles-national-forest/6367793/" target="_blank">ABC 7</a>. However, the fire was seen burning several homes.</p><p>Reporter Veronica Miracle tweeted that she had spoken to a man who had fled his home as a wall of flames approached.</p><p>"He thinks his house is gone," she said.</p>
<div id="a8aeb" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="9bd40093f0715b15feaf61119c36b8d8"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293737541003128833" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Just spoke to a man who lives up the street from this road block. He says when he left his home there was a wall of… https://t.co/cW3pLDSWLm</div> — Veronica Miracle (@Veronica Miracle)<a href="https://twitter.com/ABC7Veronica/statuses/1293737541003128833">1597286040.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>Television footage early Thursday showed buildings burned to the ground, <a href="https://apnews.com/beb7f003386f89e5be10cb8b5ff97fd5" target="_blank">The Associated Press reported</a>, but it was not clear if they were homes or not. Los Angeles County Deputy Fire Chief David Richardson said Wednesday night the flames might have burned some outbuildings.</p><p>More than 500 firefighters are combating the blaze, according to InciWeb. The area is expected to record temperatures in the 90s this afternoon.</p><p>Smoke from the fire could be seen from as far as Venice Beach Wednesday.</p>
<div id="0b41c" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="db8e055853e93a3f057d22319303ee90"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1293691210557566976" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">#LakeFire view from Venice Beach provided by @LACoLifeguards.
#LACoFD https://t.co/84jv0gSoVU</div> — L.A. County Fire Department (@L.A. County Fire Department)<a href="https://twitter.com/LACoFDPIO/statuses/1293691210557566976">1597274994.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>The <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change/" target="_self">climate crisis</a> is making <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/tag/california" target="_self">California</a>'s wildfires <a href="https://www.ecowatch.com/climate-change-wildfires-2636008989.html" target="_self">larger and more extreme</a> as high temperatures dry out vegetation, making it more likely to burn.</p>
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Although heat waves rarely get the attention that hurricanes do, they kill far more people per year in the U.S. and abroad. greenaperture / Getty Images
By Jeff Berardelli
Note: This story was originally published on August 6, 2020
If asked to recall a hurricane, odds are you'd immediately invoke memorable names like Sandy, Katrina or Harvey. You'd probably even remember something specific about the impact of the storm. But if asked to recall a heat wave, a vague recollection that it was hot during your last summer vacation may be about as specific as you can get.
<p>Although heat waves rarely get the attention that <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-extremely-active-24-named-storms/" target="_blank">hurricanes</a> do, they kill far more people per year in the U.S. — about three times as many, <a href="https://www.weather.gov/hazstat/" target="_blank">according to NOAA</a>. In 1995 a scorching heat wave <a href="https://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazine/July-2015/1995-Chicago-heat-wave/" target="_blank">in Chicago</a> left 739 people dead. </p><p>Heat waves are even more impactful overseas, partly because people there are less likely to have air conditioning. The <a href="https://www.climatesignals.org/events/european-heat-wave-2003" target="_blank">European heat wave of 2003</a> is estimated to have caused an astounding <a href="https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health" target="_blank">70,000 deaths</a>. In 2010, 56,000 people died in a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-heat-deaths-idUSTRE69O4LB20101025" target="_blank">heat wave in Russia</a>.</p><p>Perhaps if heat waves received as much public attention as hurricanes, lives could be saved? That's the idea behind a new initiative launched Wednesday that aims to tackle the notoriety issue by naming and ranking heat waves. The hope is that by raising awareness of the dangers, people will be more adequately prepared when heat waves strike. </p><p>The initiative is being led by the Atlantic Council's Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center. They, along with 30 global partners — including the cities of Miami, Mexico City, and Athens, Greece — announced the formation of the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance.</p><p><span></span>"This extreme heat crisis can no longer be the 'silent killer' it is," said Kathy Baughman McLeod, director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center. "This growing risk — and related solutions — must be blasted from a megaphone to decision makers and to people everywhere."</p>
<p>A <a href="https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-07-13-climate-concern-extreme-heat-going-unrecorded-africa" target="_blank">study</a> released by Oxford University in July backs up the need to raise awareness about heat waves. The research shows that despite the fact that extreme heat events in sub-Saharan Africa are rapidly worsening because of climate change, there's been a lack of official record-keeping to document the impact in a region that is a "literal hotspot" for heat wave activity.</p><p>The analysis concludes that this failure is "putting the population at further risk," since "action plans and early warning systems are invaluable in mitigating the impacts of extreme temperatures."</p><p>While the United States has an elaborate system of warnings, from the National Weather Service to national and local media, including TV meteorologists, much of the developing world does not have that luxury. Research suggests that naming may help.</p><p>"The naming and ranking heat waves all over the world by the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance will, for the first time, convey the true nature of the threat heat poses, essential to protecting vulnerable people who are increasingly more susceptible to its harmful effects," said Rockefeller Foundation president Dr. Rajiv Shah in a <a href="https://www.onebillionresilient.org/post/extreme-heat-resilience-alliance-reducing-extreme-heat-risk-for-vulnerable-people" target="_blank">press release</a>.</p><p>The practice of naming major storms began years ago in order to help with quick identification, because names are presumed to be far easier to remember than numbers or technical terms. The World Meteorological Organization <a href="https://public.wmo.int/en/our-mandate/focus-areas/natural-hazards-and-disaster-risk-reduction/tropical-cyclones/Naming" target="_blank">explains</a>, "Appending names to storms makes it easier for the media to report on tropical cyclones, heightens interest in warnings and increases community preparedness."<br> <br>One memorable recent heat wave — with an extremely memorable nickname — <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lucifer-heat-wave-forest-fires-wine-harvest-europe/" target="_blank">roasted Europe in 2017</a>. That heat wave became widely known as <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lucifer-heat-wave-europe-regular-summer-occurrence-climate-change-study/" target="_blank">Lucifer</a>, and scientists say such extreme events have been made 10 times more likely due to climate change. </p>
<p>Dr. Ed Maibach, director of the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University, agrees that naming heat waves would help with preparedness.</p><p>"A heat wave is an abstraction. Abstract ideas are hard to understand and remember, while concrete ideas are easier to understand and remember. Naming something is a good way to make it more concrete," he said.</p><p>"Concrete ideas are also more actionable in that people can more easily figure what to do, or what not to do. Concrete ideas are also more likely to be shared from person to person, which is helpful from a communication and public safety perspective," adds Maibach.</p><p>This push to name and rank heat waves comes at a time when climate change is dramatically increasing the chances for extreme heat. A <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16970-7" target="_blank">study</a> published in July in Nature Communications shows that since 1950, heat waves globally are getting significantly more frequent, lasting longer and producing more cumulative heat — making populations more vulnerable to heat stress. </p>
<p>In 2016, famed climate scientist James Hansen from Columbia University <a href="https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/fatal-heat-humidity-emerging/" target="_blank">published research</a> showing that hotter summers could make parts of the Middle East and tropics "practically uninhabitable" by the end of the century. This May, a <a href="https://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2020/05/08/fatal-heat-humidity-emerging/" target="_blank">follow up study</a> from Columbia concluded that potentially fatal combinations of humidity and heat are already beginning to emerge across the globe.</p><p>As the intensity of extreme heat accelerates, the number of deaths will rise dramatically. That's the conclusion of a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-climate-heat-inequality/?sref=wINQCNXe" target="_blank">major report</a> just released by Climate Impact Lab on Monday. Their research shows that by the year 2100, the global annual mortality rate due to excess heat is expected to climb to 73 per 100,000 people — a mortality rate similar to what New York state suffered from <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/coronavirus" target="_blank">COVID-19</a>. With an expected global population of around <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth#:~:text=UN%20projections%20published%20in%202019,2100%20to%20be%2010.9%20billion." target="_blank">11 billion</a>, that translates into 8 million heat-related deaths per year. </p><p>The report also concludes the poor will be disproportionately impacted by extreme heat and die at much higher rates, bolstering the argument for naming heat waves especially in developing nations.</p><p>But here in the U.S., many meteorologists are skeptical about naming heat waves. That's because defining heat waves is not easy — it entails factoring in many variables like intensity, longevity and the size of the area covered. Therefore, people may interpret the meaning differently. And as importantly, "heat wave" means different things to different people, depending on where they live. </p><p>In many parts of the U.S. the definition of a heat wave is three days or more in a row of 90+-degree heat. However, 100 degrees in Phoenix — which is an everyday summer occurrence — does not have nearly as big a physical impact as 100 degrees in Chicago, where people are not used to extreme heat. In addition, humidity, wind and sun exposure all play a big role in the impact, but those are not factored into the current definition of a heat wave. </p><p>The Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance plans to tackle this issue of differing definitions by ranking the severity of heat waves. But the concern among some meteorologists is that naming may lead to broad-brush assumptions when in reality there is so much local nuance. They feel there needs an updated, agreed-upon definition of what constitutes a heat wave.</p>
<div id="ecf36" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="c2dcc9d48a6cd61f247df1544539a783"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1290959314132361216" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Naming heatwaves is a good idea—making the abstract concrete, the invisible visible. Why should hurricanes and wild… https://t.co/hDWgYb79Ob</div> — Ed Maibach (@Ed Maibach)<a href="https://twitter.com/MaibachEd/statuses/1290959314132361216">1596623660.0</a></blockquote></div>
<p>In its <a href="https://www.onebillionresilient.org/post/extreme-heat-resilience-alliance-reducing-extreme-heat-risk-for-vulnerable-people" target="_blank">press release</a>, the Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance said it is in active conversations with NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization and other institutions to build "the international cooperation needed to make naming and ranking of heat waves standard practice."</p><p>Though the debate continues, not all weather professionals are skeptical about the initiative. Lonnie Quinn, the chief weathercaster at WCBS-TV in New York City, thinks it's a good idea. "I 100% believe that naming heat waves will give them more credibility. The public will jump on board and it will result in them being taken more seriously," he said.</p><p>One thing virtually everyone in the climate and weather community agrees on: <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/climate-change" target="_blank">climate change</a> is <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dust-bowl-heat-wave-climate-change-twice-as-likely-study-says/" target="_blank">making extreme heat a more serious threat</a> to human health. Therefore, anything that can raise awareness is much needed. <br> <br>"Heat waves are dangerous," said Maibach. "Making them more concrete is a useful way to help people understand the dangers, act on the dangers, and share information with other people about the dangers."</p>
<p><em>This story originally appeared in</em> <em><a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/" target="_blank">CBS News </a></em><em>and is republished here as part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story.</em></p>From Your Site Articles
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