Few U.S. Students Repeat a Grade but That Could Change Due to COVID-19
By Pamela Davis-Kean
With in-person instruction becoming the exception rather than the norm, 54% of parents with school-age children expressed concern that their children could fall behind academically, according to a poll conducted over the summer of 2020. Initial projections from the Northwest Evaluation Association, which conducts research and creates commonly used standardized tests, suggest that these fears are well-grounded, especially for children from low-income families.
Based on the association's findings and my own research regarding academic achievement and socioeconomic status, I believe it's likely, based on these early projections, that the widespread and rapid switch to remote schooling will have negative long-term academic consequences.
One possibility is that the share of students who end up repeating at least one grade at some point could rise due to this unprecedented disruption.
Any potential effort to make students repeat a grade when they can't demonstrate they have learned enough to advance to the next one would build on some recent precedents.
Starting in 2001 with the No Child Left Behind Act, reading proficiency by third grade became one of the federal mandates for schools to receive designated streams of federal funding.
This federal legislation, combined with research indicating that children who couldn't yet read fared better when they repeated a grade, brought about a wave of state-level legislation. So far, a total of 16 states have enacted laws that prevent students from moving on from third grade until they are considered proficient on standardized reading tests.
These state laws vary. Some states, like Florida, require students who aren't reading well enough to repeat third grade altogether. Others, such as Minnesota, let children move onto fourth grade and provide them with supplemental reading assistance until they can read at what the state deems to be a third-grade level. In practice, students typically don't repeat more than one grade.
I consider it likely that the academic consequences of the extended period of remote learning that began in March 2020 will be unequal. These consequences are bound to fall more heavily on students who are growing up facing persistent economic hardship.
The practice of making children who are struggling to learn how to read repeat third grade, however well-intentioned, can be risky. For example, students who repeat a grade can feel stigmatized and less motivated to learn.
Therefore, I believe parents, educators and policymakers will all need to try to address the inevitable gaps in learning bound to arise from widespread remote learning during the pandemic.
Pamela Davis-Kean is a Professor of Psychology, University of Michigan.
Disclosure statement: Pamela Davis-Kean receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Institute for Child Health and Development (NICHD).
Reposted with permission from The Conversation.
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A Game of Jenga<p>Think of it as a game of Jenga and the planet's climate system as the tower. For generations, we have been slowly removing blocks. But at some point, we will remove a pivotal block, such as the collapse of one of the major global ocean circulation systems, for example the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), that will cause all or part of the global climate system to fall into a planetary emergency.</p><p>But worse still, it could cause runaway damage: Where the tipping points form a domino-like cascade, where breaching one triggers breaches of others, creating an unstoppable shift to a radically and swiftly changing climate.</p><p>One of the most concerning tipping points is mass methane release. Methane can be found in deep freeze storage within permafrost and at the bottom of the deepest oceans in the form of methane hydrates. But rising sea and air temperatures are beginning to thaw these stores of methane.</p><p>This would release a powerful greenhouse gas into the atmosphere, 30-times more potent than carbon dioxide as a global warming agent. This would drastically increase temperatures and rush us towards the breach of other tipping points.</p><p>This could include the acceleration of ice thaw on all three of the globe's large, land-based ice sheets – Greenland, West Antarctica and the Wilkes Basin in East Antarctica. The potential collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet is seen as a key tipping point, as its loss could eventually <a href="https://science.sciencemag.org/content/324/5929/901" target="_blank">raise global sea levels by 3.3 meters</a> with important regional variations.</p><p>More than that, we would be on the irreversible path to full land-ice melt, causing sea levels to rise by up to 30 meters, roughly at the rate of two meters per century, or maybe faster. Just look at the raised beaches around the world, at the last high stand of global sea level, at the end of the Pleistocene period around 120,0000 years ago, to see the evidence of such a warm world, which was just 2°C warmer than the present day.</p>
Cutting Off Circulation<p>As well as devastating low-lying and coastal areas around the world, melting polar ice could set off another tipping point: a disablement to the AMOC.</p><p>This circulation system drives a northward flow of warm, salty water on the upper layers of the ocean from the tropics to the northeast Atlantic region, and a southward flow of cold water deep in the ocean.</p><p>The ocean conveyor belt has a major effect on the climate, seasonal cycles and temperature in western and northern Europe. It means the region is warmer than other areas of similar latitude.</p><p>But melting ice from the Greenland ice sheet could threaten the AMOC system. It would dilute the salty sea water in the north Atlantic, making the water lighter and less able or unable to sink. This would slow the engine that drives this ocean circulation.</p><p><a href="https://www.carbonbrief.org/atlantic-conveyor-belt-has-slowed-15-per-cent-since-mid-twentieth-century" target="_blank">Recent research</a> suggests the AMOC has already weakened by around 15% since the middle of the 20th century. If this continues, it could have a major impact on the climate of the northern hemisphere, but particularly Europe. It may even lead to the <a href="https://ore.exeter.ac.uk/repository/handle/10871/39731?show=full" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">cessation of arable farming</a> in the UK, for instance.</p><p>It may also reduce rainfall over the Amazon basin, impact the monsoon systems in Asia and, by bringing warm waters into the Southern Ocean, further destabilize ice in Antarctica and accelerate global sea level rise.</p>
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation has a major effect on the climate. Praetorius (2018)
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