UK Agency Developing Early Warning System for Major Climate Tipping Points

The United Kingdom’s Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA) plans to invest 81 million pounds in the development of an ambitious early warning system designed to detect climate tipping points.

The new system will use drones, plankton bloom patterns and cosmic ray detection combined with artificial intelligence and detailed, cutting-edge computer models, reported The Guardian.

“Major parts of the Earth system are at risk of crossing climate tipping points within the next century, with severe consequences for biodiversity, food security, agriculture, and humanity. Despite the potential impact, we’re poorly equipped to characterise the long-term trends of our climate systems, or predict the future risk of runaway, self-perpetuating change,” ARIA said in a press release. “Combining expertise in observation and modelling with innovative sensing systems, we’ll look to develop a proof-of-concept for an early warning system for climate tipping points that is affordable, sustainable and justified.”

Early warning system for climate tipping points given £81m kickstart: Ambitious UK project aims to forecast climate catastrophes using fleets of drones, cosmic ray detection, patterns of plankton blooms and more An ambitious attempt to develop an early warning system for climate tipping p…

[image or embed]

— The Guardian Climate News (unofficial) (@guardian-climate.bsky.social) February 18, 2025 at 9:07 AM

ARIA has awarded roughly $102 million to 27 project teams with a goal of finding signals that warn of the biggest climate disasters that could be triggered by the climate crisis.

ARIA’s early warning system program will be focused on two major tipping points: the collapse of the subpolar gyre (SPG) ocean current — a part of the crucial Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) — and the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet.

The collapse of ocean currents like AMOC would lead to global weather pattern changes, triggering extreme weather and wreaking havoc on the world’s food supplies, while the collapse of Greenland’s ice sheet would cause significant and potentially damaging sea level rise.

“In a similar way to how we use monitoring stations to detect and warn for tsunamis, we’re aiming to establish networks of climate monitoring systems to detect early signs of critical shifts in our climate,” said Sarah Bohndiek and Gemma Bale, who co-lead the ARIA program, as The Guardian reported. “Through these systems, we can equip decision-makers with the data they need to confront the threat of abrupt climate change head on.”

Sarah Bohndiek, 1 of 2 scientists leading the #ClimateChange program at ARIA, warned the world was less prepared for climate #TippingPoints than it was for #COVID19. “What would happen if we cross one of the climate tipping points?"

[image or embed]

— Carbon Tracker Initiative (@carbontracker.bsky.social) January 2, 2025 at 5:30 AM

At least 16 tipping points have been identified by scientists, some of which may have already been passed, from the thawing of permafrost in the north to a shift in west Africa’s monsoon.

ARIA hopes to come up with an early warning system capable of forecasting tipping points a decade ahead of time, where possible.

Professor Tim Lenton, an ARIA team leader and director of the Global Systems Institute at University of Exeter, said a warning like ARIA is proposing would incentivize the world to speed up climate action, since even if it wasn’t possible to stop a particular tipping point, having advance notice would give society time to prepare.

One of the program’s teams is developing small, high-speed drones to be used to gather better data in Greenland.

“Greenland is the fastest melting place on Earth, but this ice loss has knock-on effects for both North Atlantic ocean currents and fisheries. This crucial research will help us to understand how much freshwater the ice sheet is releasing, and what the subsequent effects will be on the ocean currents that bring warm waters and weather to the UK,” said Kelly Hogan of the British Antarctic Survey in the press release.

Another ARIA team is working on making devices that can move vertically through the ocean to collect data on the SPG.

“The UK and northern Europe could experience much harsher winters, similar to parts of Canada [if the SPG collapses], while the east coast of the U.S. could see dramatic sea level rises,” said Dr. Bieito Fernández Castro, a lecturer at University of Southampton who leads the SPG project, as reported by The Guardian.

One of the projects will develop detailed computer simulations of real-world data to evaluate the reliability of prospective early warning signals.

“We will make use of real-world examples of past tipping points to better understand these events,” said David Thornalley, a professor of ocean and climate science at University College London.

Another team will develop models to pinpoint where and when climate tipping points might happen.

“Forecasting tipping points is a formidable challenge,” said Dr. Reinhard Schiemann, associate professor of climate science at University of Reading. “But the fantastic range of teams tackling this challenge from different angles, yet working together in a coordinated fashion, makes this programme a unique opportunity.”