Climate Scientists Warn Nordic Ministers of Risk of Major Ocean Current Collapse

More than 40 scientists have written an open letter warning of a potential “tipping point” for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the Arctic.

The letter to the Nordic Council of Ministers encourages countries in the region to prevent global heating from causing AMOC’s collapse, which could lead to sudden changes in weather patterns and damage to ecosystems.

“Science increasingly confirms that the Arctic region is a ‘ground zero’ for tipping point risks and climate regulation across the planet. In this region, the Greenland Ice Sheet, the Barents sea ice, the boreal permafrost systems, the subpolar gyre deep-water formation and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are all vulnerable to major, interconnected nonlinear changes,” the scientists said in the letter. “The AMOC, the dominant mechanism of northward heat transport in the North Atlantic, determines life conditions for all people in the Arctic region and beyond and is increasingly at risk of passing a tipping point.”

AMOC is an ocean current system that brings warm water to the North Atlantic, giving Europe its mild climate, reported Reuters.

Members of the Nordic Council of Ministers include Finland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland, Greenland, the Faroe Islands and Åland.

“Such an ocean circulation change would have devastating and irreversible impacts especially for Nordic countries, but also for other parts of the world,” the scientists said.

The letter encourages the Nordic Council of Ministers to take action, such as calling for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, Reuters reported.

In the letter, the scientists said that the most recent report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggests that the risk of a tipping point for AMOC is a distinct possibility in the coming few decades.

AMOC’s collapse would raise sea levels in the Atlantic, make the Northern Hemisphere cooler, reduce precipitation in North America and Europe and change monsoon patterns in Africa and South America, the United Kingdom’s Met Office said, as reported by Reuters.

“If Britain and Ireland become like northern Norway, (that) has tremendous consequences. Our finding is that this is not a low probability,” said signatory of the letter professor Peter Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen, as Reuters reported. “This is not something you easily adapt to.”

Fossil fuel subsidies worldwide reached a record high of $7 trillion in 2022, the International Monetary Fund said.

According to professor Stefan Rahmstorf, head of the department of Earth System Analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, these kinds of subsidies indicate that there is not a viable effort being made to prevent this type of climate disaster.

“Given the increasing evidence for a higher risk of an AMOC collapse, we believe it is of critical importance that Arctic tipping point risks, in particular the AMOC risk, are taken seriously in governance and policy. Even with a medium likelihood of occurrence, given that the outcome would be catastrophic and impacting the entire world for centuries to come, we believe more needs to be done to minimize this risk,” the letter to the ministers said.