Worst Case Climate Scenario Could Be Even Worse Than Thought
When scientists set out to model the impacts of climate change, they use four different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which each represent a different possible radiative forcing, i.e.a total of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions measured in Watts per square meter, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC.)
The four different RPCs.IPCC
Each RCP also sets a different option for global temperature, rate of greenhouse gas emissions and total atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration by 2100, as G.P. Wayne explained in a summary for The Guardian..
The total greenhouse gas concentration (in parts per million of carbon dioxide equivalent) for each RCP.Ilinri
RCP8.5 represents the worst-case emissions scenario and assumes high, unregulated economic growth and increased burning of fossil fuels.
For example, when researchers predicted that low-lying atolls could be uninhabitable by 2030-2060, the earliest date is based on RCP8.5.
Now, a paper published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences suggests that RCP8.5 might not be bad enough. That is because researchers have underestimated the degree of uncertainty in calculating rates of economic growth on both a global and regional per capita basis. Greater uncertainty means that growth rates could be higher than projected, leading to higher greenhouse gas emissions. The study found that there is a 35 percent chance that global greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be worse than the levels predicted by RCP8.5 for 2100.
"The implication is that if we are producing more and consuming more, we must assume that emission rates will grow significantly faster than we thought," study co-author and assistant professor in the University of Illinois (U of I) Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics Peter Christensen said in a U of I press release published by EurekaAlert! "In the absence of meaningful climate policy, higher baseline growth scenarios likely imply higher emissions growth around the world. The level of uncertainty revealed by this study will shift our modeling of physical and social processes related to changes in the climate and the baseline for policymaking," he said.
Just because RCP8.5 might be worse than predicted does not mean that humanity will actually follow a worse-case-scenario trajectory. That scenario assumes no action is taken on climate change, and global deals like the Paris agreement indicate that many countries are already moving to take action.
"We've already locked in a certain amount of climate policy," Glen Peters of the Center for International Climate Research in Norway, who was not involved with the research, said in a New Scientist article about the findings.
But higher economic growth might mean that the less catastrophic RCPs have underestimated both potential emissions and the amount of action required to combat them. "The results will also affect estimates of emissions pathways under a variety of policy scenarios," Christensen told The New Scientist.
Paris Agreement Needs a Boost: Climate Talks Underway in Bonn With 193 Governments https://t.co/GGqFqkfq9M… https://t.co/LQXqD4T30g— EcoWatch (@EcoWatch)1525219506.0
By Lisa Newcomb
Analysis released Thursday of the world's top 10 biggest plastic polluters in 15 countries reveals how major corporations hide behind the veneer of corporate responsibility while actively working to thwart regulatory legislation around the globe.
<div id="5899a" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="f2af5e24600e9a04a59098846be0795c"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1306489782529335296" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Out now! 📢 Our ground-breaking new report reveals the hypocrisy of the world’s biggest #plasticpolluters, who claim… https://t.co/TWutruUlqA</div> — Changing Markets Foundation (@Changing Markets Foundation)<a href="https://twitter.com/ChangingMarkets/statuses/1306489782529335296">1600326412.0</a></blockquote></div>
<div id="688ca" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3370c14123ff2ac521085479120d1260"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1306488205198401536" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">DELAY, DISTRACT and DERAIL: 3 tactics that help Big Plastic fight plastic legislation behind the scenes across the… https://t.co/f29Pc86aMj</div> — GAIA (@GAIA)<a href="https://twitter.com/GAIAnoburn/statuses/1306488205198401536">1600326036.0</a></blockquote></div>
<div id="eaab1" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="0f6dbe75ec7e7ed4656a767958238c89"><blockquote class="twitter-tweet twitter-custom-tweet" data-twitter-tweet-id="1306313773511303169" data-partner="rebelmouse"><div style="margin:1em 0">Amount of federal government subsidies given to the fossil fuel industry every year: $15 billion. The amount it sh… https://t.co/NRWQWRiw5f</div> — Bernie Sanders (@Bernie Sanders)<a href="https://twitter.com/SenSanders/statuses/1306313773511303169">1600284448.0</a></blockquote></div><p>Urbanic urged lawmakers to act to protect the planet.</p><p>"The voluntary initiatives and commitments by the industry have failed," she said in a statement. "Policymakers should look past the industry smokescreen and adopt proven, progressive legislation globally to create the systemic change that this crisis so urgently needs."</p>
- 22 Facts About Plastic Pollution (And 10 Things We Can Do About It ... ›
- Plastics: The History of an Ecological Crisis - EcoWatch ›
- Atlantic Ocean Holds 10x More Plastic Pollution Than Previously ... ›
EcoWatch Daily Newsletter
The secretive blueprints for two of the leading vaccine candidates for the coronavirus were released Thursday. Pfizer and Moderna became the first two companies among the nine leading vaccine candidates to share their study designs, hoping that the disclosures will create trust and clarity for the public, as The New York Times reported.
- Tapes Show Trump Knew Coronavirus Was Deadly While ... ›
- U.S. Sits out as World Leaders Pledge $8 Billion to Find a COVID-19 ... ›
- White House Ordered Coronavirus Meetings Be Classified - EcoWatch ›
- COVID-19 Vaccine Trial Put on Hold Over Safety Concerns ... ›
- Drugs Touted by Trump for COVID-19 Increase Heart Risks, Studies ... ›
New Zealand could be the first country in the world to require its major financial institutions to report on the risks posed by the climate crisis.
Eco-friendly outdoor brand Patagonia has a colorful and timely message stitched into the tags of its latest line of shorts. "VOTE THE A**HOLES," it reads.
- 'Go Out and Vote' Patagonia Endorses Candidates for First Time in ... ›
- Tesla, Patagonia Join Growing Resistance Against Trump - EcoWatch ›
This year, the UK National James Dyson Award went to a team of student designers who want to reduce the environmental impact of car tires.
- Humans Eat More Than 100 Plastic Fibers With Each Meal - EcoWatch ›
- Microplastics Are Raining Down on Cities - EcoWatch ›
- Microplastics Are Wafting in on the Sea Breeze - EcoWatch ›