Climate Change Has Made Hurricane Winds 18 mph Stronger Since 2019, Study Finds

A new study by Climate Central has found that human-caused climate change caused Atlantic hurricanes to become roughly 18 miles per hour (mph) stronger in the past six years.

About 80 percent of hurricanes generated in the Atlantic Basin from 2019 to 2023 had maximum wind speeds that were 18 mph higher on average due to sea surface temperatures made warmer by global heating, a press release from Climate Central said.

“Rising global mean air temperatures and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are expected to influence tropical cyclone activity throughout the 21st century. Hurricane intensity changes, in particular, are important to understand and elucidate because they are a key driver of storm risks and damages in the United States,” the findings of the study said.

Thirty of 38 hurricanes the researchers analyzed were approximately one category higher in intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale in comparison with what their strength would have been projected to be without the influence of climate change, Climate Central said.

The report found that every hurricane originating in the Atlantic last year was intensified by the climate crisis.

Three storms — Lorenzo in 2019, Ian in 2022 and last year’s Lee — became Category 5 hurricanes because of climate change.

According to an assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, with each jump from one storm category to the next, potential hurricane wind damage goes up approximately fourfold. However, smaller wind speed increases that are not enough for a category change can also lead to much more potential damage.

“We know that the intensity of these storms is causing a lot more catastrophic damage in general,” said lead author of the study Daniel Gilford, a Climate Central climate scientist, as Phys.org reported. “Damages do scale (up) with the intensity.”

The study’s findings, “Human-caused ocean warming has intensified recent hurricanes,” were published in the journal Environmental Research Climate.

Alongside the study, Climate Central published Climate change increased wind speeds for every 2024 Atlantic hurricane, a report that includes the 2024 hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.

According to the report, higher sea surface temperatures increased the maximum wind speeds of all 11 hurricanes so far in 2024 from nine to 28 mph.

The analysis said it would have been unlikely for two of the storms — Milton and Beryl — to intensify into Category 5 hurricanes without climate change.

In a span of less than 36 hours, Hurricane Milton’s winds rapidly increased by 120 mph over warm waters with temperatures that were 400 to 800 times more probable because of climate change’s influence, an analysis by Climate Shift Index: Ocean said.

Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index: Ocean measures the effect of climate change on daily ocean temperatures, while helping connect ocean warming caused by humans with consequences like the rapid intensification of hurricanes.

The record ocean temperatures — frequently over three degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal — would have been almost impossible without being impacted by carbon pollution.

“It absolutely makes sense from a fundamental standpoint that what’s going on is we’ve added more energy to the system,” said NOAA chief Rick Spinrad at the COP29 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, as reported by Phys.org. “The change is going to manifest in terms of what we’re already seeing. You look at Hurricane Helene which was massive, 500 miles across. We’re going to see changes in terms of the velocity of these storms.”