Planet on Track to Warm 2.7°C by 2100 Under Current Policies: Report

The planet is in the midst of a climate crisis of epic proportions, with unparalleled extreme weather, flooding, drought and wildfires. In the face of these calamities, the global average temperature has continued to rise, with “no improvement” seen since 2021.

A new report from Climate Action Tracker (CAT) — released on Thursday at the United Nations COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan — has found that, under current policies, the world is on track toward 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming by the end of the century.

“We are clearly failing to bend the curve,” said lead author of the report Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, senior climate policy analyst with Climate Analytics, in a press release from CAT.

This year has shown “minimal overall progress,” with nearly no new net zero pledges or national climate targets, the press release said. Fossil fuel emissions continue to rise, despite repeated promises by governments to strengthen their targets for 2030 and align them with the Paris Agreement goal of limiting the average global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Gonzales-Zuñiga said the 2.7 degrees Celsius median warming estimate had a 50 percent likelihood of being lower or higher.

“But our knowledge of the climate system tells us that there is a 33% chance of our projection being 3.0°C — or higher — and a 10% chance of being 3.6°C or higher, an absolutely catastrophic level of warming,” Gonzales-Zuñiga added.

The good news is that renewables and electric vehicles (EVs) have reported record progress. Investments in green energy and EVs are now twice those of fossil fuels. At the same time, fossil fuel subsidies have reached an all-time high. Fossil fuel project funding quadrupled from 2021 to 2022.

According to CAT projections, fossil fuel emissions will peak by 2030, but at a substantially higher level than in 2021.

“Rising emissions while renewables boom is not a paradox. In recent years fossil fuels won the race against renewables, leading to increasing emissions. But renewables surprise us each year with faster growth faster than expected, exponential growth that will soon see them crowd out fossil fuels. It allows much faster decline in emissions after 2030 than we thought only three years ago,” said Professor Niklas Höhne, a climate policy expert with the NewClimate Institute, a CAT partner organization, in the press release.

An initial calculation by CAT of the predicted impact of Donald Trump’s Project 2025 planned repealing of climate policies estimates an increase in global heating of approximately 0.04 degrees Celsius, if the actions are limited to the United States. Permanently abandoning the country’s net zero goal, if accompanied by other nations delaying action or changing their climate policies, could have a larger negative effect.

“Clearly, we won’t know the full impact of the US elections until President-Elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the US now that will be difficult to stop. While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at significant scale,” said Bill Hare, Climate Analytics CEO, in the press release. “The key issue is whether countries stick together and continue to move forward with action, a Trump rollback of US policies, as damaging as it is, can be overcome.”

CAT said putting the planet on track for a downward trajectory of emissions begins with the greatest emitters.

In conjunction with its report, CAT released its recommended targets for 2035 for seven of the planet’s biggest emitters: the U.S., China, India, Australia, the European Union, Japan and Indonesia, as well as Troika countries Azerbaijan, Brazil and the United Arab Emirates.

“What on earth are we doing in this gathering?” Prime Minister of Albania Edi Rama asked other heads of state at COP29 on Wednesday, as The Guardian reported. “What does it mean for the future of the world if the biggest polluters continue as usual?”

The world’s seven biggest emitters produced 60 percent of greenhouse gas emissions globally in 2022. The three Troika nations — who released their Roadmap to Mission 1.5°C — all have plans to keep extracting fossil fuels. Together, the 10 nations produce 63 percent of the world’s emissions.

“Developed countries need to continue to supplement their domestic action with significant financial and other support for developing countries to constitute an equitable contribution to the 1.5°C limit,” said co-author of the report Ana Missirliu, a climate policy analyst with the NewClimate Institute, in the press release. “Many developing countries can only achieve sufficient climate action with significant financial and other support. COP29 is where we need to see this financial commitment.”