44% of Experts Surveyed Believe China’s CO2 Emissions Have Already Peaked or Will Peak Next Year

Nearly half of climate experts — 44 percent — believe China’s carbon dioxide emissions may have already peaked, or will peak in 2025 at the latest, according to a new report from think tank Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

China’s carbon emissions are also on track to increase slightly this year, despite fast progress on electric vehicles (EVs) and renewables.

The third edition of the annual report, China’s Climate Transition: Outlook 2024, indicated increasing optimism about China’s green transition, reported The Guardian.

“Clean energy industries have emerged as key drivers of economic growth. As China continues its transition, the benefits are becoming increasingly clear,” said Shi Xunpeng, one of the authors of the report and the president of the International Society for Energy Transition Studies, as The Guardian reported.

The 44 experts from industry and academia surveyed for this year’s report were much more optimistic about China’s carbon emissions peaking by next year than they were during last year’s survey, when just 21 percent had the same opinion.

In the report, CREA reassessed China’s progress toward its climate and emissions commitments aligned with the goals of the Paris Agreement, a press release from CREA said.

In response to the question of whether they believed coal consumption in China had peaked, 36 percent of the experts surveyed said yes, compared with 15 percent in 2023. Fifty-two percent of the experts expect the country’s consumption of coal to peak by next year, with just 20 percent saying the peak will occur later.

Coal currently makes up 80 percent of fossil fuel emissions in China, reported The Guardian.

China has set a target of reaching peak carbon emissions by the end of the decade and overall carbon neutrality by 2060. A pledge from Beijing to “strictly control” coal use in the country’s 14th “five-year plan” covers the period up until the end of next year.

“China already plans to reduce its coal consumption after 2026 but this cut will definitely have to be pretty drastic and fast if China wants to achieve the 2060 carbon neutrality goal,” said Wang Xiaojun, founder of Manila-based NGO People of Asia for Climate Solutions, as The Guardian reported.

Over the last two years, China has been focusing on renewables industries to rebuild its post-pandemic economy by developing EVs, batteries and solar panels, which have attracted high levels of investment.

The analysts included in the study also looked at whether China can lower its economy’s carbon intensity — or how much carbon dioxide is released in the production of one unit of electricity.

“In order to align with the Paris agreement… China will need to either speed up renewable energy deployment even further or guide economic development in a less energy-intensive direction,” said lead analyst at CREA Lauri Myllyvirta, as reported by The Guardian.