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Can Geoengineering Tame Devastating Hurricanes?

Climate

Scientists think they know, in principle, how to tame hurricanes and reduce storm surge risks.

A huge ash plume rises from the Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in 1991. Photo credit: Ed Wolfe / U.S. Geological Survey

All it would take would be a stratosphere full of sulphate aerosols sufficient to dim the sun, lower tropic ocean temperatures and reduce the hazard of the kind of windstorm that hit New York in 2012 and New Orleans in 2005 with devastating consequences.

Hurricanes are likely to impose increasing costs as the planet’s climate changes. However, there is a little more to the solution than a simple darkening of the upper skies.

The quantities of sulphate discharge needed to make a difference would be the equivalent of the catastrophic Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption that scorched the Philippines in 1991. And there could also be other unwelcome consequences.

Test of Hypothesis

Polar scientist John Moore and colleagues reported in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that their exercise was a test of a hypothesis: a “qualitative indication” that geoengineering could help reduce hurricanes.

Co-author Ben Kravitz, a climate scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory in the U.S., said: “We’re looking at possibilities now, in case the world needs these options down the road.”

As humans continue to burn fossil fuels, levels of greenhouse gases will build up in the lower atmosphere, global average temperatures will rise and heatwaves, floods and windstorms could become more frequent, more intense or both.

So the hurricane-suppressing scientists worked entirely from climate simulations to see if eruptions could in fact calm some of the weather extremes predicted under climate change.

New Orleans devastated by floods after Hurricane Katrina struck in 2005. Photo credit: NOAA Aviation Weather Center / Wikimedia Commons

Although climate scientists have repeatedly said that only a sharp reduction in carbon dioxide emissions will have any impact in the long run, a number of groups have tested the other possible answer: the considered and wilful alteration of the planet’s climate through geoengineering.

The results so far have been either mixed or downright unpromising. Scientists have looked at the idea of “whitening” the Arctic to prevent the loss of ice; they have explored the idea of tapping energy from the oceans to reduce global temperatures; and they have confirmed that sulphate aerosol discharges could severely disrupt world rainfall patterns and make things worse for millions.

There is evidence that the technique could offer temporary relief for coral reefs—also at risk from warming oceans—but overall, researchers have repeatedly pronounced geoengineering to be unworkable.

The limited case of hurricane control, however, suggests that it might be effective—if expensive.

To mimic the effect of a Pinatubo-type eruption, researchers would have to lift to airliner altitudes roughly a quarter of all the sulphates produced by human industry in any one year.

In the lower atmosphere, these cause respiratory illnesses. At altitude, these could lower the global temperature by about half a degree Celsius for a year or two.

But they could also affect the monsoon rain system that nourishes hundreds of millions in Asia, and they could damage the ozone layer that screens most humans from harmful ultraviolet radiation.

Over time, it would reduce sea surface temperatures and reduce the probability of Katrina-scale hurricanes and devastating storm surges of the kind that swept through New York and New Orleans in the company of the hurricane-force winds.

Benefits and Risks

But that wouldn’t mean it was a safe option. “This is a narrow study,” Kravitz says. “Geoengineering researchers have to very carefully categorize the other benefits and risks, and hand off that information to the decision makers.”

Coincidentally, another study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal confirms that real volcanic eruptions, if they happened in the summertime, could not only cool the northern hemisphere, but also possibly generate an El Niño pattern in the Pacific and even have an impact on ocean currents in the Atlantic.

Since El Niño is linked to devastating floods on the west coast of the Americas and drought and fires in the Indonesian rainforests, and since the Atlantic currents are an integral part of the European climate machinery, the consequences might go far beyond hurricane control.

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A volcano erupts on New Zealand's Whakaari/White Island on Dec. 9, 2019. Michael Schade / Twitter

A powerful volcano on Monday rocked an uninhabited island frequented by tourists about 30 miles off New Zealand's coast. Authorities have confirmed that five people died. They expect that number to rise as some are missing and police officials issued a statement that flights around the islands revealed "no signs of life had been seen at any point,", as The Guardian reported.

"Based on the information we have, we do not believe there are any survivors on the island," the police said in their official statement. "Police is working urgently to confirm the exact number of those who have died, further to the five confirmed deceased already."

The eruption happened on New Zealand's Whakaari/White Island, an islet jutting out of the Bay of Plenty, off the country's North Island. The island is privately owned and is typically visited for day-trips by thousands of tourists every year, according to The New York Times.

Michael Schade / Twitter

At the time of the eruption on Monday, about 50 passengers from the Ovation of Seas were on the island, including more than 30 who were part of a Royal Caribbean cruise trip, according to CNN. Twenty-three people, including the five dead, were evacuated from the island.

The eruption occurred at 2:11 pm local time on Monday, as footage from a crater camera owned and operated by GeoNet, New Zealand's geological hazards agency, shows. The camera also shows dozens of people walking near the rim as white smoke billows just before the eruption, according to Reuters.

Police were unable to reach the island because searing white ash posed imminent danger to rescue workers, said John Tims, New Zealand's deputy police commissioner, as he stood next to Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in a press conference, as The New York Times reported. Tims said rescue workers would assess the safety of approaching the island on Tuesday morning. "We know the urgency to go back to the island," he told reporters.

"The physical environment is unsafe for us to return to the island," Tims added, as CNN reported. "It's important that we consider the health and safety of rescuers, so we're taking advice from experts going forward."

Authorities have had no communication with anyone on the island. They are frantically working to identify how many people remain and who they are, according to CNN.

Geologists said the eruption is not unexpected and some questioned why the island is open to tourism.

"The volcano has been restless for a few weeks, resulting in the raising of the alert level, so that this eruption is not really a surprise," said Bill McGuire, emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London, as The Guardian reported.

"White Island has been a disaster waiting to happen for many years," said Raymond Cas, emeritus professor at Monash University's school of earth, atmosphere and environment, as The Guardian reported. "Having visited it twice, I have always felt that it was too dangerous to allow the daily tour groups that visit the uninhabited island volcano by boat and helicopter."

The prime minister arrived Monday night in Whakatane, the town closest to the eruption, where day boats visiting the island are docked. Whakatane has a large Maori population.

Ardern met with local council leaders on Monday. She is scheduled to meet with search and rescue teams and will speak to the media at 7 a.m. local time (1 p.m. EST), after drones survey the island, as CNN reported.

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