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Why Going 100% Electric in California Isn’t as Crazy as It Might Seem
By Don Anair
California's top air pollution regulator, Mary Nichols, made headlines last week after making comments to a Bloomberg reporter about the possibility of banning gasoline cars in California. Shortly after that, California Assembly member Phil Ting announced he would introduce state legislation to do just that. Skeptics may raise their eyebrows, but if California is going to meet its long term climate and air quality goals then nearly all future cars and trucks must be powered by renewable electricity and hydrogen. The good news is the state is already on this path.
Our Health and Our Climate Depends on Vehicle Electrification
It's no secret that widespread vehicle electrification is needed to meet California's climate and air quality goals. In 1990, the first Zero Emission Vehicle program was adopted—an acknowledgment that vehicles with zero tailpipe emissions were necessary to ensure healthy air in a state with a growing population and a whole lot of cars.
Climate change has only added to the importance of vehicle electrification, which takes advantage of the efficiency of electric motors and the ability to power vehicles with renewable electricity or hydrogen (fuel cell vehicles have an electric motor and zero tailpipe emissions similar to battery electric cars).
The state's recent assessment of vehicle technologies needed to meet our climate and air quality goals shows the importance of widespread vehicle electrification, suggesting that all sales of new cars should be electric by 2050 (including plug-in hybrids or PHEVs). A national assessment, Pathways to Deep Decarbonization in the United States and a California assessment, also point out a large-scale transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is needed to achieve the level of emission reductions needed to avoid dangerous climate change.
Figure 1: From a presentation by staff to the Air Resources Board in March 2017 showing that by 2050 the majority of cars on the road—and all of new car sales—are powered by electric motors.
Banning Gasoline and Diesel Gains Popularity
In the wake of VW's Dieselgate, and with the impacts of climate change becoming more and more apparent, banning the sale of internal combustion vehicles is becoming a popular policy choice around the world, with France, Britain, India and China all making big splashes with recent commitments to eliminate them at some point in the future.
With these strong commitments gathering steam, someone might ask if California is somehow losing its leadership on EVs. California isn't losing its leadership, it's starting to share it with many more parts of the globe. This is great news, as increased global demand for EVs will help drive down technology costs for everyone and help automakers recoup their investments in EV technology faster.
But is going to 100 percent electric vehicles practical? It might be hard to imagine a time when every car at your local dealership will be electric. But there are reasons to be bullish on the future of EVs. Battery prices are dropping with estimates that EVs could have comparable costs to gasoline vehicles sometime in the 2020s. And recent announcements by major manufacturers like Ford, GM, Volvo, VW and others about expanding electric vehicle line-ups over the next 5 years indicates the industry is betting on growth opportunities.
Figure 2: As recently noted in a blog by my colleague David Reichmuth, battery costs are declining and approaching the point where EVs achieve cost parity ($125-150 per kWh).
California is Taking the Right Steps to Making Electric Cars an Option for More and More Drivers
In addition, California is implementing policies to support the deployment of EVs. There's a long list, but some of the most critical are direct consumer rebates, incentives targeting low- and moderate-income households, utility investments to support the deployment of EV charging infrastructure, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and the Zero Emission Vehicle program, which requires automakers to bring EVs to market. Meanwhile, California's relatively clean electricity grid means that driving an EV results in global warming emissions equivalent to a 95 mile-per-gallon gasoline car. As California increases its reliance on electricity from renewable sources, emissions will continue to decline.
Long-Term Goals Must Be Matched With Near-Term Action
Adopting a ban on gasoline and diesel cars would certainly send a strong long-term signal that powering electric vehicles with clean energy is our ultimate destination. It could focus policy makers' and regulators' efforts on supporting the transition and give automakers, charging companies, utilities and entrepreneurs a vision and long-term target for the future to guide their investments.
However, it's the near-term efforts to make EVs more accessible to all Californians that will accelerate the transition. That means expanding current programs targeted toward individuals and businesses who buy or use new and used cars and increasing access to charging. And it also means supporting electrification for those who rely on other modes of transportation too (see my colleague Jimmy's blog on electric buses).
A future without internal combustion engine cars is consistent with a future of clean air and minimizing climate impacts. Ultimately, for a transition to a clean, electric transportation system to succeed, the system needs to be better than the one we have today. And it's the policies we implement today that will drive the investments needed to reach a tipping point, a point where choosing the EV is a no brainer for whomever is shopping for a car.
Don Anair is a senior engineer with expertise on diesel, hybrid and battery electric vehicle, and goods movement technologies and the policies needed to turn them into real solutions for U.S. oil dependence, air pollution and global warming. He holds a master's degree in electrical engineering. See Don's full bio.
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